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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura↗
NASA NTRS2008

2007 Research and Engineering Annual Report

Selected research and technology activities at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center are summarized. These following activities exemplify the Center's varied and productive research efforts: Developing a Requirements Development Guide for an Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance System; Digital Terrain Data Compression and Rendering for Automatic Ground Collision Avoidance Systems; Nonlinear Flutter/Limit Cycle Oscillations Prediction Tool; Nonlinear System Identification Using Orthonormal Bases: Application to Aeroelastic/Aeroservoelastic Systems; Critical Aerodynamic Flow Feature Indicators: Towards Application with the Aerostructures Test Wing; Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool Development Using a Genetic Algorithm; Structural Model Tuning Capability in an Object-Oriented Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization Tool; Extension of Ko Straight-Beam Displacement Theory to the Deformed Shape Predictions of Curved Structures; F-15B with Phoenix Missile and Pylon Assembly--Drag Force Estimation; Mass Property Testing of Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed Hardware; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: Testing of Scramjet Thermal Protection System Concepts; High-Temperature Modal Survey of the Ruddervator Subcomponent Test Article; ARMD Hypersonics Project Materials and Structures: C/SiC Ruddervator Subcomponent Test and Analysis Task; Ground Vibration Testing and Model Correlation of the Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed; Phoenix Missile Hypersonic Testbed: Performance Design and Analysis; Crew Exploration Vehicle Launch Abort System-Pad Abort-1 (PA-1) Flight Test; Testing the Orion (Crew Exploration Vehicle) Launch Abort System-Ascent Abort-1 (AA-1) Flight Test; SOFIA Flight-Test Flutter Prediction Methodology; SOFIA Closed-Door Aerodynamic Analyses; SOFIA Handling Qualities Evaluation for Closed-Door Operations; C-17 Support of IRAC Engine Model Development; Current Capabilities and Future Upgrade Plans of the C-17 Data Rack; Intelligent Data Mining Capabilities as Applied to Integrated Vehicle Health Management; STARS Flight Demonstration No. 2 IP Data Formatter; Space-Based Telemetry and Range Safety (STARS) Flight Demonstration No. 2 Range User Flight Test Results; Aerodynamic Effects of the Quiet Spike(tm) on an F-15B Aircraft; F-15 Intelligent Flight Controls-Increased Destabilization Failure; F-15 Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control (IRAC) Improved Adaptive Controller; Aeroelastic Analysis of the Ikhana/Fire Pod System; Ikhana: Western States Fire Missions Utilizing the Ames Research Center Fire Sensor; Ikhana: Fiber-Optic Wing Shape Sensors; Ikhana: ARTS III; SOFIA Closed-Door Flutter Envelope Flight Testing; F-15B Quiet Spike(TM) Aeroservoelastic Flight Test Data Analysis; and UAVSAR Platform Precision Autopilot Flight Results.

Stoliker, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2021

Ecosystem age-class dynamics and distribution in the LPJ-wsl v2.0 global ecosystem model

Forest ecosystem processes follow classic responses with age, peaking production around canopy closure and declining thereafter. Although age dynamics might be more dominant in certain regions over others, demographic effects on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) are bound to exist. Yet, explicit representation of ecosystem demography is notably absent in many global ecosystem models. This is concerning because the global community relies on these models to regularly update our collective understanding of the global carbon cycle. This paper aims to present the technical developments of a computationally efficient approach for representing age-class dynamics within a global ecosystem model, the Lund–Potsdam–Jena – Wald, Schnee, Landschaft version 2.0 (LPJ-wsl v2.0) dynamic global vegetation model and to determine if explicit representation of demography influenced ecosystem stocks and fluxes at global scales or at the level of a grid cell. The modeled age classes are initially created by simulated fire and prescribed wood harvesting or abandonment of managed land, otherwise aging naturally until an additional disturbance is simulated or prescribed. In this paper, we show that the age module can capture classic demographic patterns in stem density and tree height compared to inventory data, and that simulated patterns of ecosystem function follow classic responses with age. We also present two scientific applications of the model to assess the modeled age-class distribution over time and to determine the demographic effect on ecosystem fluxes relative to climate. Simulations show that, between 1860 and 2016, zonal age distribution on Earth was driven predominately by fire, causing a 45- to 60-year difference in ages between older boreal (50–90° N) and younger tropical (23° S–23° N) ecosystems. Between simulation years 1860 and 2016, land-use change and land management were responsible for a decrease in zonal age by −6 years in boreal and by −21 years in both temperate (23–50° N) and tropical latitudes, with the anthropogenic effect on zonal age distribution increasing over time. A statistical model helped to reduce LPJ-wsl v2.0 complexity by predicting per-grid-cell annual NPP and Rh fluxes by three terms: precipitation, temperature, and age class; at global scales, R2 was between 0.95 and 0.98. As determined by the statistical model, the demographic effect on ecosystem function was often less than 0.10 kg C/sq. myr but as high as 0.60 kg C/sq. myr where the effect was greatest. In the eastern forests of North America, the simulated demographic effect was of similar magnitude, or greater than, the effects of climate; simulated demographic effects were similarly important in large regions of every vegetated continent. Simulated spatial datasets are provided for global ecosystem ages and the estimated coefficients for effects of precipitation, temperature and demography on ecosystem function. The discussion focuses on our finding of an increasing role of demography in the global carbon cycle, the effect of demography on relaxation times (resilience) following a disturbance event and its implications at global scales, and a finding of a 40 Pg C increase in biomass turnover when including age dynamics at global scales. Whereas time is the only mechanism that increases ecosystem age, any additional disturbance not explicitly modeled will decrease age. The LPJ-wsl v2.0 age module represents another step forward towards understanding the role of demography in global ecosystems.

LPJ-wsl↗
NASA NTRS2002

Rudder/Fin Seals Investigated for the X-38 Re-Entry Vehicle

NASA is developing the X-38 vehicle that will demonstrate the technologies required for a potential crew return vehicle for the International Space Station. This vehicle would serve both as an ambulance for medical emergencies and as an evacuation vehicle for the space station. Control surfaces on the X-38 (body flaps and rudder/fin assemblies) require high temperature seals to limit hot gas ingestion and the transfer of heat to underlying low temperature structures. Working with the NASA Johnson Space Center, the Seals Team at the NASA Glenn Research Center completed a series of tests to further characterize baseline seal designs for the rudder/fin interfaces of the X-38. The structures of the rudder/fin assembly and its associated seals are shown in the the preceding illustration. Tests performed at Glenn indicated that exposure of the seals in a compressed state at simulated seal re-entry temperatures resulted in a large permanent set and loss of seal resiliency. This could be of concern because the seals are required to maintain contact with the sealing surfaces while the vehicle goes through the maximum re-entry heating cycle to prevent hot gases from leaking past the seals and damaging interior low-temperature structures. To simulate conditions in which the seals may become unloaded during use, such as when they take on a large permanent set, Glenn researchers performed room temperature flow and compression tests to determine seal flow rates, resiliency, and unit loads under minimal loads. Flow rates through an unloaded (i.e., 0-percent compression) double seal arrangement were twice those of a double seal compressed to the 20-percent design compression level. These flow rates are being used in thermal analyses to predict the effect of flow through the seals on over-all seal temperatures. Compression test results showed that seal unit loads and contact pressures were below the limits that Johnson had set as goals for the seals. In the rudder/fin seal location, the seals are in contact with shuttle thermal tiles and are moved across the tiles as the rudder is rotated during re-entry. Low seal unit loads and contact pressures are required to limit the loads on these tiles and minimize any damage that the seals could cause. A series of tests were performed on these seals in NASA Ames Research Center's arc jet facility. The arc jet facility approximates relevant thermal environments that a seal or other structure would be subjected to during extreme heating conditions such as those experienced during space vehicle re-entry. Eleven tests were completed, including one test in which no seal was installed in the gap to examine the flow of heat down into the gap. The seal was compressed between stationary insulation tiles and a movable elevon that was rotated during the test to deflect the arc jet exhaust into the seal gap. Peak seal temperatures as high as 2000 F were reached during the 5-min tests. Results of these tests indicate satisfactory performance of the seal for single-use (e.g., X-38) applications. The results of these tests were shared with the NASA Johnson Space Center and are being used to validate aerothermostructural analysis codes that predict seal temperatures under these conditions. The tests performed at Glenn have provided valuable information to Johnson about the performance of the seals that they are considering using in the rudder/fin location of the X-38 vehicle. Glenn and Johnson are currently defining what additional work needs to be done to develop the final rudder/fin seal design for the X-38 vehicle.

Dunlap, Patrick H., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Application of electron paramagnetic resonance imaging to the characterization of the Ultem(R) exposed to 1 MeV electrons. Correlation of radical density data to tiger code calculations

A major long-term goal of the Materials Division at the NASA Langley Research Center is the characterization of new high-performance materials that have potential applications in the aircraft industry, and in space. The materials used for space applications are often subjected to a harsh and potentially damaging radiation environment. The present study constitutes the application of a novel technique to obtain reliable data for ascertaining the molecular basis for the resilience and durability of materials that have been exposed to simulated space radiations. The radiations of greatest concern are energetic electrons and protons, as well as galactic cosmic rays. Presently, the effects of such radiation on matter are not understood in their entirety. It is clear however, that electron radiation causes ionization and homolytic bond rupture, resulting in the formation of paramagnetic spin centers in the polymer matrices of the structural materials. Since the detection and structure elucidation of paramagnetic species are most readily accomplished using Electron Paramagnetic Resonance (EPR) Spectroscopy, the NASA LaRC EPR system was brought back on-line during the 1991 ASEE term. The subsequent 1992 ASEE term was devoted to the adaptation of the EPR core system to meet the requirements for EPR Imaging (EPRI), which provides detailed information on the spatial distribution of paramagnetic species in bulk media. The present (1994) ASEE term was devoted to the calibration of this EPR Imaging system, as well as to the application of this technology to study the effects of electron irradiation on Ultem(exp R), a high performance polymer which is a candidate for applications in aerospace. The Ultem was exposed to a dose of 2.4 x 10(exp 9) Rads (1-MeV energy/electron) at the LaRC electron accelerator facility. Subsequently, the exposed specimens were stored in liquid nitrogen, until immediately prior to analyses by EPRI. The intensity and dimensions of the EPR Images that were generated for the irradiated specimens showed that the electrons penetrated the material to a depth of approximately 0.125 inch. These data show a very high degree of correlation to the energy deposition profile as predicted by the Tiger Code, a Monte Carlo code that provides guidelines for the transport of electrons in matter. Subsequent efforts will focus on delineating the transport properties of energetic protons in Ultem(R).

Suleman, Naushadalli K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Development Progress to Demonstrate Electric Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) Using Low-Cost Particles

The rapid growth of future energy demand increases the need to economically store electrical energy over durations up to several days in long-duration energy storage (LDES) applications. LDES can reduce the grid stress for improving the resilience of the grid. The integration of renewable power and storage has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable energy portion of electricity generation, meeting peak-load demand, and coordinating supply and demand. Several energy storage approaches including mechanical, chemical and electrochemical methods are currently deployed or under development. However, LDES requirements pose unique challenges for scalability, energy capacity, and cost. Thermal energy storage (TES) has the ability to store a large capacity of energy with improved site flexibility compared to incumbent LDES technologies (i.e., pumped hydro) and has attracted significant interest. Our development in TES technology using solid particles as the storage medium has shown feasibility and potential in serving LDES purposes. Particle TES has various advantages over commercialized molten nitrate salt TES and has emerged as a promising storage technology originating from Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) development. Stable, inexpensive silica sand produced in the Midwestern U.S. was identified as a suitable storage medium and has been validated through lab heating and cycling tests. We have successfully developed particle TES for bidirectional electric energy storage to broaden the applications for TES beyond CSP technologies and into standalone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES) systems. Key component designs and performance were verified with prototype testing and model simulations. The ETES system uses high-temperature, low-cost particle thermal energy storage coupled with a unique pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger that supports a high-efficiency, air-Brayton combined power cycle. At times of low energy demand or high renewable production, an electric particle heater heats large quantities of solid particles to high temperatures in excess of 1100 degrees C. The particles are stored in internally insulated silos. At times of high electricity demand, the hot particles are gravity-fed through the heat exchanger where stored thermal energy is transferred to the power cycle working fluid to drive the gas turbine power generation system, thereby converting the thermal energy back into electricity for the grid. The cold particles leaving the heat exchanger are returned to the storage silos by a well-insulated particle conveyor. This ETES technology using particle TES can be sited anywhere and is predicted to be economic and efficient. Moreover, this ETES technology could be co-located with a retired coal or gas plant to leverage existing power generation and grid infrastructure. Our work has focused on the development of each of the key components (e.g., the electric particle heater, particle storage silos, and the particle-to-gas pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger) through conceptual designs, prototype testing, and computational modeling. These developments demonstrate technological feasibility and are an important step towards the next phase of development of this promising LDES technology. This presentation will show the progress in developing a pilot demonstration of the ETES system on a commercially relevant scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correcting NOAA's High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Wind Resource Data for Grid Integration Applications [Slides]

Many weather years of high-quality wind data are widely accepted in the grid integration community to be important for studying wind energy technical potential, energy system operations, and grid resilience. NREL makes high-quality wind and solar resource data available. NREL's Grid-Atmosphere workshop (March 2024) identified NREL National Solar Radiation Database as widely used in grid integration modeling, but there is less agreement on commonly used wind datasets. One important factor identified by ESIG's 2023 report 'Weather Dataset Needs for Planning and Analyzing Modern Power Systems' for gold standard wind data is regular updates. To address the need for regular updates, NREL's team can now process all currently available and regularly updated High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) outputs. HRRR is an hourly-updated operational forecast product produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Dowell et al., 2022). One barrier to NREL using HRRR is systematic bias and consistency with NREL's existing wind datasets (e.g. WIND Toolkit, 'WTK') across weather years. To address this barrier, we show that the HRRR can be interpolated and bias-corrected to be consistent with NRE's existing datasets. We call the new dataset BC-HRRR (bias-corrected HRRR). As with historical datasets like the WTK, BC-HRRR is intended for use in grid integration modeling (e.g., capacity expansion, production cost, and resource adequacy modeling). BC-HRRR's (2015-present) consistency with WTK (2007-2013) allows NREL to extend internal grid integration tooling with 15+ weather years of wind data with low-overhead extensibility to future years as they are made available by NOAA. The rest of this slide deck documents the BC-HRRR processing methods, validation, and its implications for intended use.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Physics-Based Data-Driven Approach for Modeling of Environmental Degradation in Elastomers

Abstract Elastomers are now commonly used in a number of industries, including aerospace, structure, transportation, shipbuilding, and automotive, due to their excellent workability, formability, and flexibility. During their activity, elastomers are subjected to harsh environmental conditions, which decreases their resilience. False predictions made early in their lives can have major financial and environmental implications. Elastomers’ performance and properties, such as strength, durability, and density, are influenced by chemical changes in these materials, known as degradation, which occurs over time. This process can alter the morphology of a polymer matrix as well as cause chain scission and cross-linking, resulting in different behaviors than that of the unaged material. To demonstrate the effect of thermaloxidative aging on the mechanical behavior of elastomers, several experimental and theoretical models have been proposed. In view of the large volume of experimental data available on micro-structural evolution in the course of aging, we propose a physics-based data-driven approach to overcome the shortcomings of both phenomenological and micro-mechanical models. This work presents a novel thermodynamically consistent, multiagent machine-learned model for predicting the constitutive behavior of cross-linked elastomers during environmental aging, such as thermo-oxidative and hydrolytic aging for various states of deformation. Single mechanism degradation changes the polymer matrix over time where it is causing chain scission, reduction of cross-links, and morphology change. To capture the idealized Mullins effect and permanent set due to the effect of single aging mechanisms on nonlinear mechanical responses of elastomers, we propose a data-driven model for simulating inelastic elements in a polymer matrix. By using a sequential order reduction, we were able to reduce the 3D stress-strain tensor mapping problem to a small number of super-constrained 1D mapping problems. To systematically classify such mapping problems into a few categories, an assembly of multiple replicated conditional neural network learning agents (L-agents) is used based on our recent work. Each category is represented by a different type of agent. The effect of deformation history, aging time, and aging temperature is captured by this model. The model is validated using a broad collection of data, ranging from our experimental results to data from the literature. In addition, thermodynamic consistency and frame independence are investigated. The most significant achievements of this model are its precision, simplicity, and prediction of inelasticity under various states of deformation. The model’s accuracy and simplicity make it a good option for commercial and industrial applications. Conveniently, due to the model modular nature, it can be expanded in the future to include viscoelasticity and non-isotropic formation for better precision.

Ghaderi, Aref↗
DOE OSTI2021

Toward a Generalizable Framework of Disturbance Ecology Through Crowdsourced Science

Disturbances fundamentally alter ecosystem functions, yet predicting their impacts remains a key scientific challenge. While the study of disturbances is ubiquitous across many ecological disciplines, there is no agreed-upon, cross-disciplinary foundation for discussing or quantifying the complexity of disturbances, and no consistent terminology or methodologies exist. This inconsistency presents an increasingly urgent challenge due to accelerating global change and the threat of interacting disturbances that can destabilize ecosystem responses. By harvesting the expertise of an interdisciplinary cohort of contributors spanning 42 institutions across 15 countries, we identified an essential limitation in disturbance ecology: the word ‘disturbance’ is used interchangeably to refer to both the events that cause, and the consequences of, ecological change, despite fundamental distinctions between the two meanings. In response, we developed a generalizable framework of ecosystem disturbances, providing a well-defined lexicon for understanding disturbances across perspectives and scales. The framework results from ideas that resonate across multiple scientific disciplines and provides a baseline standard to compare disturbances across fields. This framework can be supplemented by discipline-specific variables to provide maximum benefit to both inter- and intra-disciplinary research. To support future syntheses and meta-analyses of disturbance research, we also encourage researchers to be explicit in how they define disturbance drivers and impacts, and we recommend minimum reporting standards that are applicable regardless of scale. Finally, we discuss the primary factors we considered when developing a baseline framework and propose four future directions to advance our interdisciplinary understanding of disturbances and their social-ecological impacts: integrating across ecological scales, understanding disturbance interactions, establishing baselines and trajectories, and developing process-based models and ecological forecasting initiatives. Our experience through this process motivates us to encourage the wider scientific community to continue to explore new approaches for leveraging Open Science principles in generating creative and multidisciplinary ideas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

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