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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 127 records · Page 7
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Computer Model Calibration Based on Image Warping Metrics: An Application for Sea Ice Deformation

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More recent models also attempt to capture features such as fractures or leads in the ice. These simulated features can be partially misaligned or misshapen when compared to observational data, whether due to numerical approximation or incomplete physics. In order to make realistic forecasts and improve understanding of the underlying processes, it is necessary to calibrate the numerical model to field data. Traditional calibration methods based on generalized least-square metrics are flawed for linear features such as sea ice cracks. We develop a statistical emulation and calibration framework that accounts for feature misalignment and misshapenness, which involves optimally aligning model output with observed features using cutting-edge image registration techniques. Here, this work can also have application to other physical models which produce coherent structures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Design of Experiments, Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

This presentation provides an overview of emulation, calibration and experiment design for computer experiments. Emulation refers to building a statistical surrogate from a carefully selected and limited set of model runs to predict unsampled outputs. The standard kriging approach to emulation of complex computer models is presented. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used to sample the calibrated parameter distribution. Several MCMC algorithms commonly employed in practice are presented, along with a popular diagnostic for evaluating chain behavior. Space-filling approaches to experiment design for selecting model runs to build effective emulators are discussed, including Latin Hypercube Design and extensions based on orthogonal array skeleton designs and imposed symmetry requirements. Optimization criteria that further enforce space-filling, possibly in projections of the input space, are mentioned. Designs to screen for important input variations are summarized and used for variable selection in a nuclear fuels performance application. This is followed by illustration of sequential experiment design strategies for optimization, global prediction, and rare event inference.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Distribution system model calibration with big data from AMI and PV inverters

Efficient management and coordination of distributed energy resources with advanced automation schemes requires accurate distribution system modeling and monitoring. Big data from smart meters and photovoltaic (PV) micro-inverters can be leveraged to calibrate existing utility models. This paper presents computationally efficient distribution system parameter estimation algorithms to improve the accuracy of existing utility feeder radial secondary circuit model parameters. The method is demonstrated using a real utility feeder model with advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) and PV micro-inverters, along with alternative parameter estimation approaches that can be used to improve secondary circuit models when limited measurement data is available. Lastly, the parameter estimation accuracy is demonstrated for both a three-phase test circuit with typical secondary circuit topologies and single-phase secondary circuits in a real mixed-phase test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

In-Situ Calibrated Modeling of Residual Stresses Induced in Machining under Various Cooling and Lubricating Environments

Although many functional characteristics, such as fatigue life and damage resistance depend on residual stresses, there are currently no industrially viable ‘Digital Process Twin’ models (DPTs) capable of efficiently and quickly predicting machining-induced stresses. By leveraging advances in ultra-high-speed in-situ experimental characterization of machining and finishing processes under plane strain (orthogonal/2D) conditions, we have developed a set of physics-based semi-analytical models to predict residual stress evolution in light of the extreme gradients of stress, strain and temperature, which are unique to these thermo-mechanical processes. Initial validation trials of this novel paradigm were carried out in Ti-6Al4V and AISI 4340 alloy steel. A variety dry, cryogenically cooled and oil lubricated conditions were evaluated to determine the model’s ability to capture the tribological changes induced due to lubrication and cooling. The preliminarily calibrated and validated model exhibited an average correlation of better than 20% between the predicted stresses and experimental data, with calculation times of less than a second. Based on such fast-acting DPTs, the authors envision future capabilities in pro-active surface engineering of advanced structural components (e.g., turbine blades).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Parameter covariance and non-uniqueness in material model calibration using the Virtual Fields Method

Traditionally, material identification is performed using global load and displacement data from simple boundary-value problems such as uni-axial tensile and simple shear tests. More recently, however, inverse techniques such as the Virtual Fields Method (VFM) that capitalize on heterogeneous, full-field deformation data have gained popularity. In this work, we have written a VFM code in a finite-deformation framework for calibration of a viscoplastic (i.e. strain-rate dependent) material model for 304L stainless steel. Using simulated experimental data generated via finite-element analysis (FEA), we verified our VFM code and compared the identified parameters with the reference parameters input into the FEA. The identified material model parameters had surprisingly large error compared to the reference parameters, which was traced to parameter covariance and the existence of many essentially equivalent parameter sets. This parameter non-uniqueness and its implications for FEA predictions is discussed in detail. Lastly, we present two strategies to reduce parameter covariance – reduced parametrization of the material model and increased richness of the calibration data – which allow for the recovery of a unique solution.

304L stainless steel↗
NASA NTRS2024

Toward 2D Dynamo Models Calibrated by Global 3D Relativistic Accretion Disk Simulations

Two-dimensional models assuming axisymmetry are an economical way to explore the long-term evolution of black hole accretion disks, but they are only realistic if the feedback of the nonaxisymmetric turbulence on the mean momentum and magnetic fields is incorporated. Dynamo terms added to the 2D induction equation should be calibrated to 3D MHD simulations. For generality, the dynamo tensors should be calibrated as functions of local variables rather than explicit functions of spatial coordinates in a particular basis. In this paper, we study the feedback of non-axisymmetric features on the 2D mean fields using a global 3D, relativistic, Cartesian simulation from the Illinois GRMHD code. We introduce new methods for estimating overall dynamo alpha and turbulent diffusivity effects as well as measures of the dominance of non-axisymmetric components of energies and fluxes within the disk interior. We attempt closure models of the dynamo EMF using least squares fitting, considering both models where coefficient tensors are functions of space and more global, covariant models. None of these models are judged satisfactory, but we are able to draw conclusions on what sorts of generalizations are and are not promising.

Matthew D Duez↗
DOE OSTI2023

Massively Parallel Bayesian Model Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification with Applications to Nuclear Fuels and Materials

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in a nuclear reactor is governed by a complex network of mechanisms interacting with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent the fuel behavior will likely be idealized resulting in uncertainties in their predictions compared to the observed data. As such, this report was motivated by the need to identify the sources of uncertainties and quantify and propagate them through the fuel model outputs. Such quantification of uncertainties will establish a level of model trustworthiness, identify approaches to improve the model trustworthiness, and even guide optimal experiment design for maximal information gain. To accomplish the uncertainty quantification for computational models, this report has relied on the Bayesian framework which provides probabilistic treatment of models their inputs and outputs. The current state-of-the-art on performing Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) for nuclear engineering models using High Performance Computing (HPC) resources have been reviewed. Implementation of capabilities for massively parallel Bayesian UQ in Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is discussed. Several verification cases are discussed to verify the accuracy of the quantified uncertainties using the developed computational capabilities in MOOSE. Then, the problem of quantifying the uncertainties in TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) fuel silver release is addressed. For the first time, the uncertainties arising from the TRISO Fission Gas Release (FGR) model due to model inadequacy and experimental noise are quantified. Also, the Bayesian capabilities are applied to the calibration of the MATPRO creep model, a widely used model in several fuel assessment cases. The impact of the prediction uncertainties in the MATPRO model on the fuel cladding behavior as part of the TRIBULATION assessment case (which is an integral effects case) is investigated. This report concludes with a discussion on the future work for the UQ for computational models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Thermal-Mechanical Elastic-Plastic and Ductile Failure Model Calibrations for 6061-T651 Aluminum Alloy from Plate

Numerical simulations of metallic structures undergoing rapid loading into the plastic range require material models that accurately represent the response. In general, the material response can be seen as having four interrelated parts: the baseline response under slow loading, the effect of strain rate, the conversion of plastic work into heat and the effect of temperature. In essence, the material behaves in a thermal-mechanical manner if the loading is fast enough so when heat is generated by plastic deformation it raises the temperature and therefore influences the mechanical response. In these cases, appropriate models that can capture the aspects listed above are necessary. The matters of interest here are the elastic-plastic response and ductile failure behavior of 6061-T651 aluminum alloy under the conditions described above. The work was accomplished by first designing and conducting a material test program to provide data for the calibration of a modular $J_2$ plasticity model with isotropic hardening as well as a ductile failure model. Both included modules that accounted for temperature and strain rate dependence. The models were coupled with an adiabatic heating module to calculate the temperature rise due to the conversion of plastic work to heat. The test program included uniaxial tension tests conducted at room temperature, 150 and 300 C and at strain rates between 10 –4 and 10 3 1/s as well as four geometries of notched tension specimens and two tests on specimens with shear-dominated deformations. The test data collected allowed the calibration of both the plasticity and the ductile failure models. Most test specimens were extracted from a single piece of plate to maintain consistency. Notched tension tests came from a possibly different plate, but from the same lot. When using the model in structural finite element calculations, element formulations and sizes different from those used to model the test specimens in the calibration are likely to be used. A brief investigation demonstrated that the failure model can be particularly sensitive to the element selection and provided an initial guide to compensate in a specific example.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

VERSE-LC TCCR Model Calibration using Batch 1A, Batch 2, and Batch 3 Column Data

The objective of this work is to utilize on-line gamma monitoring data collected during Tank Closure Cesium Removal (TCCR) Column Batch 3 operations to calibrate the parameters (essentially, the correction/dilution factors (CF or DF)) used in the VERSE-LC models for the prediction of cesium breakthrough while processing Savannah River Site (SRS) Tank 10H dissolved saltcake High-Level Waste through a packed cylindrical bed of Crystalline Silicotitanate (CST). Calibrated VERSE-LC models could be applied to aid in evaluating future TCCR operations.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermally anisotropic building envelope for thermal management: finite element model calibration using field evaluation data

The thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is an active building envelope that redistributes thermal loads in response to weather conditions and building energy demand. Conductive layers throughout the TABE distribute low-grade heat among hydronic loops, altering heat flow direction and intensity. Finite element models of TABE roof and wall panels were developed and calibrated using field evaluation data. The calibration results showed that heat flux differences between the experimental data and finite element models averaged –0.42% and 3.57%, with a maximum mean square error of 1.78 and 3.96 for roof and wall panels, respectively. A reduction in heat flux from the environment to the building living space over the entire testing period (weeks in July/August) was found to be 85% for roof panels and 335% (load reversed) for wall panels. Finally, these results indicate TABE can effectively harness low-grade thermal energy sources to achieve high energy efficiency and promote demand-side management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Distribution System Secondary Circuit Parameter Estimation for Model Calibration

To analyze and coordinate the operation of distribution systems with rapidly increasing amounts of PV, more accurate distribution system models are required, especially for the distribution system secondary (low-voltage) circuits down to the point of common coupling for distributed PV. There is a growing need for automated procedures to calibrate the distribution system secondary circuit models that are typically either not modeled at all or are modeled with a lower level of detail than the better modeled medium-voltage systems. This report presents an accurate, flexible, and computationally efficient method to use measurement data to estimate secondary circuit series impedance parameters in existing utility feeder models. The parameter estimation method assumes well-modeled primary circuit models, known secondary circuit topologies, and AMI active power, and reactive power measurements at all the loads in the secondary circuit. The method also requires AMI voltage measurement at most of the loads in the secondary circuit but can handle loads that do not have voltage measurements. No existing secondary circuit model information is needed, except for topology. The method is based on the well-known linearized voltage drop approximation and linear regression. The performance of the method is demonstrated on a three-phase test circuit with ten different secondary circuit topologies and on the Georgia Tech campus distribution system with AMI data. The developed method can be utilized to improve existing utility feeder models for more accurate analysis and operation with ubiquitous distributed PV interconnected on the low-voltage circuits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

SEMI-ANALYTIC GALAXY EVOLUTION (SAGE): MODEL CALIBRATION AND BASIC RESULTS

This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modeling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the “Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution” model, or sage for short.{sup 5} sage is a significant update to the 2006 model of Croton et al. and has been rebuilt to be modular and customizable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organized in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work, we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in sage to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include the following: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling–radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Automated Probabilistic Finite Element Model Calibration Tool Based on Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning

Qualification and certification of safety critical parts is a hurdle to the adoption of metallic additively manufactured components for aerospace vehicle applications. Challenges include variability in part properties due to inconsistent defect distribution and microstructure. Understanding of the process through finite element modeling (FEM), and process control through in-situ monitoring, may result in significant improvements; however, solutions useful to manufacturers will require large volumes of data and automated data utilization. Toward this end, a generalizable automated FEM calibration paradigm is developed. This paradigm leverages existing and novel tools from machine learning and uncertainty quantification to enable the automatic calibration of FEMs without requiring prior knowledge of the model performance across input parameter space, including meshing and solver settings, which can require time consuming manual model probing or cause noisy and inconsistent predictions. The result is a probabilistic distribution of calibrated and validated FEM input parameters targeting measured data.

Additive manufacturing model calibration finite el↗
DOE OSTI2018

Average Surface Mapping Model Calibration L3:THM.DEMO.P17.01

This milestone presents a demonstration of an average surface mapping model that maps single-phase average wall temperatures from STAR-CCM+ to Cobra-TF using a multiplier that is linearly dependent on axial and azimuthal coordinates of the Cobra-TF mesh. The work presented herein lays the foundation for adding greater complexity to the average surface mapping model such as fluid property dependence. This average surface mapping model will be incorporated into the surface mapping model developed by Lindsay Gilkey to map fluctuations from the mean surface temperatures.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2018

GoldSim® Aquifer Model Calibration and Plume Interaction

The E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Probabilistic Aquifer Model (PAM) utilizes GoldSim ® Monte Carlo simulation software (GTG, 2017) to evaluate the transport of a tracer species as it travels from the water table below the disposal unit footprint, through the aquifer, to the Point of Assessment (POA) at the 100-meter boundary. This report documents the development and calibration of PAM as well as the implementation of plume interaction. PAM is a key component of the effort to include uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis (UQSA) in the next revision of the E-Area Performance Assessment (PA), considering recommendations from the 2015 PA strategic planning team outlined by Butcher and Phifer (2016). The Aquifer Model and associated optimized geometric parameters will be implemented in the future GoldSim® (GS) system model that will simulate subsurface flow and radionuclide transport from the ground surface to the 100-meter POA.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2016

Model Calibration vs. Physics-guided Coverage Mapping: Case Study - Pressure Drop Calculations

This work deals with a fundamental question in model validation: given a body of available experiments and an envisaged domain of nuclear reactor operating conditions (referred to as the reactor application), how can one develop a quantitative approach that measures the portion of the prior uncertainties of the reactor application that is covered by the available experiments? Coverage here means that the uncertainties of the reactor application are originating from and behaving in exactly the same way as those observed at the experimental conditions. This approach is valuable as it provides a scientifically defendable criterion by which experimentally measured biases can be credibly extrapolated (i.e., mapped) to biases for the reactor applications. This work focuses on the application of a new methodology, referred to as physics-guided coverage mapping (PCM), to the estimation of hydraulic pressure losses in reactor pipes. PCM provides a generic, calibration-free approach to the mapping of experimental biases by relying on high fidelity physics simulation and information theoretic measure how much of the application domain is covered by the experiments. The idea is to employ the physics models to establish a joint probability distribution that relates the application and the available body of experiments. An information-theoretic measure, referred to as the mutual information, is used to calculate a quantitative metric that measures the inter-dependence between the application and the experiment. A virtual experiment is employed to demonstrate the application of PCM, wherein the pressure drop is calculated for both the experiment and the application using two different flow conditions, i.e., laminar and turbulent, and the experimental values are simulated. All parameters introducing uncertainties, such as geometry, friction factor formulas and their associated parameters are also incorporated. The results obtained with PCM are compared to a conventional calibration-based approach. This work show that the proposed approach can circumvent a number of challenges that face calibration-based methods, such as nonlinearity, ill-posedness and error compensation in high dimensional models with many parameters. This work focus primarily in this summary on parameter uncertainties and how they can be treated using PCM. In a separate summary, discuss performance of PCM under the presence of modeling uncertainties. This simple study has shown that calibration techniques for very simple situations cannot correctly scale the measurements from the experimental to the application domain. It is our view that is occurs primarily due the phenomenon of error compensation where on artificially changes the value of selected parameters to account for all sources of uncertainties. The situation gets more complicated when one calibrates multiple parameters where now the problem could potentially have an infinite number of ways by which the errors can be compensated. (authors)

42 ENGINEERING↗