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Gravity and the geoid in the Nepal Himalaya

Materials within the Himalaya are rising due to convergence between India and Asia. If the rate of erosion is comparable to the rate of uplift the mean surface elevation will remain constant. Any slight imbalance in these two processes will lead to growth or attrition of the Himalaya. The process of uplift of materials within the Himalaya coupled with surface erosion is similar to the advance of a glacier into a region of melting. If the melting rate exceeds the rate of downhill motion of the glacier then the terminus of the glacier will receed up-valley despite the downhill motion of the bulk of the glacier. Thus although buried rocks, minerals and surface control points in the Himalaya are undoubtably rising, the growth or collapse of the Himalaya depends on the erosion rate which is invisible to geodetic measurements. Erosion rates are currently estimated from suspended sediment loads in rivers in the Himalaya. These typically underestimate the real erosion rate since bed-load is not measured during times of heavy flood, and it is difficult to integrate widely varying suspended load measurements over many years. An alternative way to measure erosion rate is to measure the rate of change of gravity in a region of uplift. If a control point moves vertically it should be accompanied by a reduction in gravity as the point moves away from the Earth's center of mass. There is a difference in the change of gravity between uplift with and without erosion corresponding to the difference between the free-air gradient and the gradient in the acceleration due to gravity caused by a corresponding thickness of rock. Essentially gravity should change precisely in accord with a change in elevation of the point in a free-air gradient if erosion equals uplift rate. We were funded by NASA to undertake a measurement of absolute gravity simultaneously with measurements of GPS height within the Himalaya. Since both absolute gravity and time are known in an absolute sense to 1 part in 10(exp 10) it is possible to estimate gravity with a precision of 0.1 mu gal. Known systematic errors reduce the measurement to an absolute uncertainty of 6 mu gal. The free air gradient at the point of measurement is typically about 3 mu gals/cm. At Simikot where our experiment was conducted we determined a vertical gravity gradient of 4.4 mu gals/cm.

Bilham, Roger↗

Absorption Cross-Sections of Ozone in the Ultraviolet and Visible Spectral Regions: Status report 2015

The activity Absorption Cross-Sections of Ozone (ACSO) started in 2008 as a joint initiative of the International Ozone Commission (IO3C), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the IGACO (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations) O3/UV subgroup to study, evaluate, and recommend the most suitable ozone absorption cross-section laboratory data to be used in atmospheric ozone measurements. The evaluation was basically restricted to ozone absorption cross-sections in the UV range with particular focus on the Huggins band. Up until now, the data of Bass and Paur published in 1985 (BP, 1985) are still officially recommended for such measurements. During the last decade it became obvious that BP (1985) cross-section data have deficits for use in advanced space-borne ozone measurements. At the same time, it was recognized that the origin of systematic differences in ground-based measurements of ozone required further investigation, in particular whether the BP (1985) cross-section data might contribute to these differences. In ACSO, different sets of laboratory ozone absorption cross-section data (including their dependence on temperature) of the group of Reims (France) (Brion et al., 1993, 1998, 1992, 1995, abbreviated as BDM, 1995) and those of Serdyuchenko et al. (2014), and Gorshelev et al. (2014), (abbreviated as SER, 2014) were examined for use in atmospheric ozone measurements in the Huggins band. In conclusion, ACSO recommends:(a) The spectroscopic data of BP (1985) should no longer be used for retrieval of atmospheric ozone measurements.(b) For retrieval of ground-based instruments of total ozone and ozone profile measurements by the Umkehr method performed by Brewer and Dobson instruments data of SER (2014) are recommended to be used. When SER (2014) is used, the difference between total ozone measurements of Brewer and Dobson instruments are very small and the difference between Dobson measurements at AD and CD wavelength pairs are diminished.(c) For ground-based Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) measurements the use of BDM (1995) or SER (2014) is recommended.(d) For satellite retrieval the presently widely used data of BDM (1995) should be used because SER (2014) seems less suitable for retrievals that use wavelengths close to 300 nm due to a deficiency in the signal-to-noise ratio in the SER (2014) dataset.The work of ACSO also showed: The need to continue laboratory cross-section measurements of ozone of highest quality. The importance of careful characterization of the uncertainties of the laboratory measurements. The need to extend the scope of such studies to other wavelength ranges (particularly to cover not only the Huggins band but also the comparison with the mid-infrared region). The need for regular cooperation of experts in spectral laboratory measurements and specialists in atmospheric (ozone) measurements.

Orphal, Johannes↗

Generalized Entropic Uncertainty Relations with Tsallis' Entropy

A generalization of the entropic formulation of the Uncertainty Principle of Quantum Mechanics is considered with the introduction of the q-entropies recently proposed by Tsallis. The concomitant generalized measure is illustrated for the case of phase and number operators in quantum optics. Interesting results are obtained when making use of q-entropies as the basis for constructing generalized entropic uncertainty measures.

Portesi, M.↗

The Hubble Constant from Strongly Lensed Supernovae with Standardizable Magnifications

The dominant uncertainty in the current measurement of the Hubble constant (H 0 ) with strong gravitational lensing time delays is attributed to uncertainties in the mass profiles of the main deflector galaxies. Strongly lensed supernovae (glSNe) can provide, in addition to measurable time delays, lensing magnification constraints when knowledge about the unlensed apparent brightness of the explosion is imposed. We present a hierarchical Bayesian framework to combine a data set of SNe that are not strongly lensed and a data set of strongly lensed SNe with measured time delays. We jointly constrain (i) H 0 using the time delays as an absolute distance indicator, (ii) the lens model profiles using the magnification ratio of lensed and unlensed fluxes on the population level, and (iii) the unlensed apparent magnitude distribution of the SN population and the redshift–luminosity relation of the relative expansion history of the universe. We apply our joint inference framework on a future expected data set of glSNe and forecast that a sample of 144 glSNe of Type Ia with well-measured time series and imaging data will measure H 0 to 1.5%. We discuss strategies to mitigate systematics associated with using absolute flux measurements of glSNe to constrain the mass density profiles. Using the magnification of SN images is a promising and complementary alternative to using stellar kinematics. Future surveys, such as the Rubin and Roman observatories, will be able to discover the necessary number of glSNe, and with additional follow-up observations, this methodology will provide precise constraints on mass profiles and H 0 .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Perturbation theory for modeling galaxy bias: validation with simulations of the Dark Energy Survey

We describe perturbation theory (PT) models of galaxy bias for applications to photometric galaxy surveys. We model the galaxy-galaxy and galaxy-matter correlation functions in configuration space and validate against measurements from mock catalogs designed for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We find that an effective PT model with five galaxy bias parameters provides a good description of the 3D correlation functions above scales of 4 Mpc/$h$ and $z < 1$. Our tests show that at the projected precision of the DES-Year 3 analysis, two of the non-linear bias parameters can be fixed to their co-evolution values, and a third (the $k^2$ term for higher derivative bias) set to zero. The agreement is typically at the 2 percent level over scales of interest, which is the statistical uncertainty of our simulation measurements. To achieve this level of agreement, our {\it fiducial} model requires using the full non-linear matter power spectrum (rather than the 1-loop PT one). We also measure the relationship between the non-linear and linear bias parameters and compare them to their expected co-evolution values. We use these tests to motivate the galaxy bias model and scale cuts for the cosmological analysis of the Dark Energy Survey; our conclusions are generally applicable to all photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Intensity and Self-Broadening Measurements of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 CO2 Perpendicular Band at 5315/cm

The near-infrared thermal emission windows in the spectrum of the night-side of Venus have stimulated new determinations of the intensities of weak CO2 bands which are prominent absorption features in Venus spectra. Parameters for many unmeasured bands have been recomputed for the HITRAN compilation using direct numerical diagonalization (DND) [Wattson and Rothman, J.Q.S.R.T. 48, 763 (1992)]. To assess these HITRAN values, we have been measuring several of these bands on spectra which were obtained using the Kitt Peak McMath FTS and 6-meter White cell. Last year we presented preliminary intensity measurements of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band and 4 associated hot bands, Five additional McMath FTS spectra have now been obtained covering the region 3800 to 8400/cm. This permits us to finalize our intensity measurements, and to make an assessment of their uncertainties. We anticipate that these measured values will help improve further DND calculations of many weak unmeasureable bands. In addition, self-broadening parameters were determined for some lines of the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band on spectra obtained with 65 and 80 torr of CO2. Because of the large spectral range, these measurements could be compared directly to self-broadening parameters of corresponding parallel. band lines measured on the same spectra. This procedure eliminates several possible sources of systematic errors that are important when attempting to determine whether or not corresponding rotational lines in different overtone-combination bands have significant differences. Our measurements thus far have found self-broadening parameters for the 01(exp 1)21-00(exp 0)01 perpendicular band to be slightly larger than similar measurements for the 30(exp 0)14-00(exp 0)01 parallel band at 6076/cm.

Giver, Lawrence P.↗

Inferring Cirrus Size Distributions Through Satellite Remote Sensing and Microphysical Databases

Since cirrus clouds have a substantial influence on the global energy balance that depends on their microphysical properties, climate models should strive to realistically characterize the cirrus ice particle size distribution (PSD), at least in a climatological sense. To date, the airborne in situ measurements of the cirrus PSD have contained large uncertainties due to errors in measuring small ice crystals (D<60 m). This paper presents a method to remotely estimate the concentration of the small ice crystals relative to the larger ones using the 11- and 12- m channels aboard several satellites. By understanding the underlying physics producing the emissivity difference between these channels, this emissivity difference can be used to infer the relative concentration of small ice crystals. This is facilitated by enlisting temperature-dependent characterizations of the PSD (i.e., PSD schemes) based on in situ measurements. An average cirrus emissivity relationship between 12 and 11 m is developed here using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument and is used to retrieve the PSD based on six different PSD schemes. The PSDs from the measurement-based PSD schemes are compared with corresponding retrieved PSDs to evaluate differences in small ice crystal concentrations. The retrieved PSDs generally had lower concentrations of small ice particles, with total number concentration independent of temperature. In addition, the temperature dependence of the PSD effective diameter De and fall speed Vf for these retrieved PSD schemes exhibited less variability relative to the unmodified PSD schemes. The reduced variability in the retrieved De and Vf was attributed to the lower concentrations of small ice crystals in the retrieved PSD.

Mitchell, David↗

Towards an Optimal Estimation Retrieval of Cirrus Cloud Optical and Microphysical Properties Using Hyperspectral Shortwave Instruments and A Fast Radiative Transfer Algorithm

Cirrus cloud retrieval products (here, cloud optical depth, effective particle size, and cloud top height) are important inputs into numerical weather and climate models. Uncertainties in such retrieval products, as a matter of course, propagate downstream, impacting model calculations. Improvements in high-quality global cirrus cloud optical and microphysical data products from satellite observations are needed to understand and reduce retrieval uncertainties. Hyperspectral shortwave instruments produce high-resolution and information-dense spectra, thus offering the opportunity to reduce uncertainties in retrieval products. We are in the process of developing a retrieval that uses the very fast Principal Component Radiative Transfer Model in the solar spectral region (PCRTM-Solar) in the forward model calculations. This retrieval will use measured reflectances from the NASA Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) and the forthcoming Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Pathfinder (CLARREO-Pathfinder) instruments. In this manuscript we present progress towards a reference retrieval employing a widely used, verified, accurate, yet computationally slower radiative transfer modeling technique. The reference retrieval, while too slow for using the complete hyperspectral measurement, will allow us to study the behavior of retrieval products and help us verify results from our in-development fast retrieval. Both retrievals will use the optimal estimation retrieval framework. In this manuscript we present results from an uncertainty analysis considering three uncertainty sources for a cirrus cloud retrieval in the form of error covariance matrices: reflectance uncertainty due to water vapor, the reflectance uncertainty due to ice crystal scattering assumptions, and the instrument measurement uncertainty. Results show that the uncertainty due to habit selection is the largest, while that due to water vapor is at most 0.6% relative to channel reflectance. As a first step, the retrieval is being designed for single layer ice clouds over open ocean water.

Cirrus cloud↗

Measurements for Flattop-HEU Benchmark Reevaluation

In June 2022, high-fidelity measurements of the Flattop critical assembly were taken at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) at the Nevada National Security Site by a team from Los Alamos National Laboratory, Figure 1. Flattop-HEU is composed of a sphere of highly enriched uranium (HEU) surrounded by a thick spherical natural uranium (NU) reflector as shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3. These measurements were taken as part of the reevaluation of the Flattop-HEU benchmark evaluation for the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Program (ICSBEP) Handbook. This reevaluation is being completed to update the benchmark to modern standards with significantly improved fidelity and uncertainty analysis. [1] The measurements address the largest identified uncertainties determined during a preliminary reevaluation in 2015. [2]

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Propagation of experimental uncertainties from the tunnel to the body coordinate system in 3-D LDV flow field studies

An analysis of experimental laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) data uncertainties that propagate from measurements in the tunnel coordinate system to results in the model system are provided. Calculations of uncertainties as functions of the variables that comprise the final result requires assessment of the contribution each variable makes. Such an analysis enables and necessitates the experimentalists to identify and address the contributing error sources in the experimental measurement system. This provides an opportunity to improve the quality of data derived from experimental systems. This is especially important in experiments where small changes in test conditions are expected to produce small, detectable changes in results. In addition, the need for high-quality experimental data for CFD method validation demands a thorough assessment of experimental uncertainty. Transforming from one Cartesian coordinate system to another by three sequential rotations, equations were developed to transform the variables initially obtained in the original coordinates into variables in the final coordinate system. Based on the transformation equations, propagation equations for errors in the experimentally-derived flow quantities were derived for a model at angle of attack. Experimental uncertainties were then propagated from the tunnel coordinate system into the model system.

Neuhart, Dan H.↗

Detailed temperature diagnostic studies for Radishock and COAX experiments

Spectral diagnostics provide a powerful probe of high energy-density physics experiments. By shining an x-ray source on a target, absorption features can be used to determine accurate temperature profiles of that target material. Many studies produce a single temperature/density measurement by fitting these observed spectra. This paper demonstrates how, by leveraging detailed simulations, we can not only measure the average temperature and density, but the full density and temperature profiles. To do so, we must conduct a careful analysis of the uncertainties in the diagnostic measurement. Here we discuss the characteristics and associated uncertainties of the spectral diagnostic used in the COAX, Radishock and OuTi experiments, ultimately demonstrating how these detailed studies increase the potential of this powerful probe.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Aerothermal Analysis of the Rocket Lab Venus Probe Heatshield

This document provides an overview of the aerothermodynamic analyses performed by the Aerothermodynamics Branch at NASA Langley Research Center for the Rocket Lab Venus Probe (RLVP). In addition to defining the baseline heating environment to the heatshield, this document pursues the experimental validation of key physical models at RLVP-relevant conditions. This experimental validation analysis, which captures the model form uncertainty, is used as one of two primary components of the margin assessment, where the other component is the parametric uncertainty. These model form (experimental) and parametric uncertainty components are used to construct a spatial and time varying margin for the heating to the RLVP heatshield. The margin is evaluated as the sum of the parametric and model form uncertainty components. The model form uncertainty is defined as the difference between the RLVP-relevant measurements and their simulations, using the upper limit uncertainty bounds for both the measurements and simulations in the comparisons. The differences in the dominant physics in the stagnation region and flank lead to the separate RLVP-relevant measurements for assessing the model form uncertainty in these two regions. These regions are addressed as follows: Stagnation Region Heating Environment: For the high-temperature stagnation-region, both the radiative heating and impact of blowing on convective heating are significant, while the impacts of turbulence and roughness are negligible. Coupled radiation and ablation LAURA/HARA solutions with ray-tracing provide the radiative heating over the entire vehicle, including the contributions from the Venus atmosphere and ablation species. Non-ablating LAURA simulations provide the convective heating. During the material-response computation typically used for TPS sizing, this non-ablating convective heating is corrected for the impact of ablation using the blowing correction. Coupled ablation LAURA simulations that capture finite-rate sur-face processes show that this blowing correction may be non-conservative over most of the heatshield. This non-conservatism is due to hydrogen recombination in the finite-rate surface model, which tends to increase the coupled ablation convective heating to near the non-ablating values, therefore making any reduction in the non-ablating value through the blowing correction non-conservative. This non-conservatism due to H catalysis is captured in the parametric component of the margin. The best available ground-test measurements that capture the impact of blowing on stagnation region convective heating, at RLVP-relevant conditions, indicate that the current blowing reduction model is non-conservative by up to 20% at RLVP-relevant blowing rates (the coupled blowing simulations were also non-conservative). Because of the relatively low velocity of the ground tests and the non-Venus atmospheric chemistry, these measurements do not capture the chemistry and therefore do not inform the uncertainty due to H catalysis. However, they do capture the fluid mechanics of blowing. The non-conservatism of the blowing correction implied by these measurements is covered by the model form component of the margin, which leads to total margin values over 50%. For the radiative heating, the shock-tube informed bias approach suggests a model form uncertainty of roughly 20%, while the parametric uncertainty analysis suggests values over 100%. The combined stagnation-point radiation margin of over 100% leads to peak margined radiative heating values of over300 W/cm2, which remains small relative to the peak margined convective heating of nearly 2000 W/cm2. Based on this analysis, at the stagnation point, the peak margined heat rate is 2203 W/cm2 and the margined total heat load is 31.5 kJ/cm2 for the current nominal trajectory. Flank Heating Environment: The forebody flank (and near-shoulder) heating environment is dominated by the impact of turbulence, roughness augmentation, and ablation on the convective heating. An extensive collection of ground test measurements with RLVP-relevant turbulence and roughness is studied to show that the maximum difference between the simulated and measured convective heating is 5%. However, with the exception of the Holden measurements from the 1980s, these measurements do not include roughness elements extending into the supersonic region of the boundary layer, which is likely to occur for RLVP (due to the 45 degree sphere-cone geometry). The interaction between the supersonic flow and roughness could cause convective heating augmentation fundamentally different than for locally subsonic flow. Although these Holden measurements are consistent with the other measurements considered, another path was pursued to assure that the rough-ness height extending into supersonic flow does not fundamentally change the roughness augmentation. This additional path was a computational effort to resolve the roughness elements in the CFD grid, so that the interaction be-tween the roughness elements and locally supersonic flow may be simulated in detail. This roughness-resolved CFD simulation is feasible because of the RLVP forebody TPS’s patterned roughness, which may be approximated analytically, and because of the axisymmetric nominal flow field, which allows a narrow surface region to be simulated and therefore make the computational expense feasible. These grid-resolved roughness simulations, which are performed at actual RLVP flight conditions, result in heating augmentation values that are below the design approach for roughness augmentation. This provides evidence that the design approach for RLVP roughness augmentation is sufficient. Based on this analysis, at this flank or near-shoulder location, the peak margined total heat rate is 2088 W/cm2and the margined total heat load is 26.0 kJ/cm2for the current nominal trajectory. Heat flux, shear, pressure and heat transfer coefficient at the RLVP stagnation point and near shoulder location are evaluated for the entire trajectory, and curved fit to a functional form of F=AρB∞UC∞. These simplified relationships for the nominal and margined aerothermal environments are referred to as aerothermal indicators, and presented at the end of this document.

Christopher O Johnston↗

Report on Data Quality Required for Modeling an MSR

Calculations were performed to assess how uncertainties in molten salt property values impact the results of behavior models of molten salt reactor systems under steady-state conditions. The thermophysical and thermochemical properties of salt mixtures being considered for use in molten salt reactors are not yet well characterized and methods used to measure property values to molten salts are not yet well established. The limited property data for salts of interest that are available in the literature are inconsistent and unreliable. Many methods used to measure property values remain developmental in the sense that not all variables affecting measured values have been identified or controlled during the measurement and not all aspects of the measurements affecting data quality are calibrated. A prior report described the repeatability of measurements made at Argonne and the reproducibility of measurements made with the same salts at several institutions is being evaluated. There is significant uncertainty in measured property values due to instrumental limitations and the effects of contaminants in the salts used to make the measurements that impacts predictions of salt behavior in a reactor. Most salts of interest are multicomponent eutectic or near-eutectic mixtures and both uncertainty in the salt composition and uncertainty in measured values. Furthermore, the salt composition evolves over time due to the uptake of impurities from the atmosphere and corrosion of containment vessels. More significantly, fission products will accumulate during operation that change the salt compositions and property values. MSR developers need to understand how this uncertainty in the basic property data of the fuel will impact modeling predictions for normal reactor operation as well was in transient scenarios that will impact the safety basis. The calculations and analyses in this report address the impact of uncertainty in measured property values under steady-state conditions through a generalized parametric study. The pooled uncertainty from contributions by a number of factors were considered and quantified, including varying composition due to impurities and fission products, imprecision in the measured values, and uncontrolled aspects of the measurement. In this way, we can begin to gain an understanding of the magnitude of the impact uncertainty will have in modeling MSR systems.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The DESI DR1 Peculiar Velocity Survey: Global Zero-point and H 0 Constraints

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) in its first Data Release (DR1) already provides more than 100,000 galaxies with relative distance measurements. The primary purpose of this paper is to perform the calibration of the zero-point for the DESI Fundamental Plane and Tully–Fisher relations, which allows us to measure the Hubble constant, H 0 . This sample has a lower statistical uncertainty than any previously used to measure H 0 , and we investigate the systematic uncertainties in absolute calibration that could limit the accuracy of that measurement. We improve upon the DESI Early Data Release Fundamental Plane H 0 measurement by (a) using a group catalog to increase the number of calibrator galaxies and (b) investigating alternative calibrators in the nearby Universe. Our baseline measurement calibrates to the SH0ES/Pantheon+ type Ia supernovae, and finds H 0 = 73.7 ± 0.06 (stat.) ± 1.1 (syst.) km s −1 Mpc −1 . Calibrating to surface brightness fluctuation distances yields a similar H 0 . We explore measurements using other calibrators, but these are currently less precise since the overlap with DESI peculiar velocity tracers is much smaller. In future data releases with an even larger peculiar velocity sample, we plan to calibrate directly to Cepheids and the tip of the red giant branch, which will enable the uncertainty to decrease towards a percent-level measurement of H 0 . This will provide an alternative to supernovae as the Hubble flow sample for H 0 measurements.

Carr, Anthony [Korea Astronomy and Space Science I↗

Calibration analysis for a multi-channel infrared scanning radiometer

A procedure for calibrating an infrared scanning spectroradiometer by a computerized parametric error analysis technique was developed. The uncertainties in the radiometric measurements of scene radiance and (for the case of a blackbody scene) temperature due to possible uncertainties in the calibration target temperature, calibration target emissivity, and instrument temperature were calculated for a range of uncertainty levels in the parameters, as well as for a gamut of scent temperatures corresponding to a given spectral channel. This technique is applicable to the radiometric calibration of any infrared radiometer. It was applied specifically to the Cloud-Top Scanning (C.T.S) Radiometer, a three-channel instrument designed for aircraftborne cloud radiance measurements in the 6.75 and 11.5 micron thermal emission spectral regions.

Walden, H.↗

Initial ASME code rule analysis on Simple and Full assessment

ASME & ASTM codes present simple and full assessment methodologies to qualify nuclear grade graphite components. This report explains the theory behind the statistical portion of the codes and describes the issues discussed in a 2020 workshop in the simple assessment, as well as the full assessment. The methodology for the full assessment was developed by Hindley []. He used a validation methodology to match the experimental average failure load of test specimens from several geometries to the calculated 50% POF load to tune the grouping criteria parameters based on an RMSE penalty function. The grouping criteria consists of a minimum volume to satisfy the weakest link theory of the Weibull distribution and a minimum stress range parameter. Hindley’s work found a minimum link volume of 10 times the grain size and a stress range parameter of 7% [satisfy the validation requirements. Several studies found that the link volume of 10 times the grain size was not satisfactory for the volume grouping criteria for graphite grades with fine grains. ASME 2021 code adopted a new volume grouping criteria based on fracture toughness for calculation of the process zone volume. However, errors were found in the ASME 2021 code process zone volume equation and the question is now open as to what volume grouping criteria is satisfactory. This report presents results from sensitivity studies that were done to evaluate the volume grouping criteria effect on the full assessment POF. This report also presents results from sensitivity studies on other aspects of the code that affect the POF, the mesh size and the choice of the Weibull threshold parameter. All three sensitivity studies: the volume grouping criteria, the mesh size, and the threshold parameter choice are found to affect the component qualification decision for components of structural reliability class 1 (SRC-1). The sensitivity analysis results are presented in the body of the report for NBG-18, which is the same grade of graphite as Hindley used in his thesis. Results from NBG-17, IG-110, 2114, and PCEA are presented in the Appendix. For NBG-18, it was found that increasing the threshold increases the POF, finer meshes result in higher POFs, and that smaller link volume requirements lead to higher POFs (which is inconsistent with Hindley’s findings). This report proposes a new validation study similar to Hindley’s []. The purpose of the new validation study is to tune the threshold, mesh size and grouping criteria based on results from multiple grades of graphite, including finer grain graphites T220 (1-3 microns) and NG-CT-50 (5 microns). The test specimens will be broken at 3 labs, such that we can measure between lab measurement variability, with at least 5 test specimens per lab such that the within lab uncertainty can also be measured. Hindley’s validation method tried matching the average experimental load with the median. The future study will attempt to match failures at lower percentiles, which would be closer to the SRC POF limit. We are currently looking into what geometries make sense and the best method to measure multi-axial stress states. These design decisions are still being set.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

How Many Elements Matter?

Some studies of stars' multielement abundance distributions suggest at least 5–7 significant dimensions, but others show that many elemental abundances can be predicted to high accuracy from [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe] (or [Fe/H] and age) alone. We show that both propositions can be, and are, simultaneously true. We adopt a machine-learning technique known as normalizing flow to reconstruct the probability distribution of Milky Way disk stars in the space of 15 elemental abundances measured by APOGEE. Conditioning on T eff and $\mathrm{log}\,g$ minimizes the differential systematics. After further conditioning on [Fe/H] and [Mg/Fe], the residual scatter for most abundances is σ [X/H] ≲ 0.02 dex, consistent with APOGEE's reported statistical uncertainties of ~0.01–0.015 dex and intrinsic scatter of 0.01–0.02 dex. Despite the small scatter, residual abundances display clear correlations between elements, which we show are too large to be explained by measurement uncertainties or by the finite sampling noise. We must condition on at least seven elements to reduce the correlations to a level consistent with the observational uncertainties. Our results demonstrate that cross-element correlations are a much more sensitive probe of a hidden structure than dispersion, and they can be measured precisely in a large sample even if the star-by-star measurement noise is comparable to the intrinsic scatter. We conclude that many elements have an independent story to tell, even for the mundane disk stars and elements produced by the core-collapse and Type Ia supernovae. The only way to learn these lessons is to measure the abundances directly, and not merely infer them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Near IR Photolysis of HO2NO2: Supplemental Material

MkIV measurements of the volume mixing ratio (VMR) of HO2NO2 at 35 deg N, sunset on Sept. 25, 1993 are given. Measurements of HO2NO2 made between approx. 65 and 70 deg N, sunrise on May 8, 1997 are listed. The uncertainties given are 1 sigma estimates of the measurement precision. Uncertainty in the HO2NO2 line strengths is estimated to be 20%; this is the dominant contribution to the systematic error of the HO2NO2 measurement. Model inputs for the simulations are given. The albedos were obtained from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer reflectively data (raw data at ftp://jwocky.gsfc.nasa.gov) for the time and place of observation. Profiles of sulfate aerosol surface area ("Surf. Area") were obtained from monthly, zonal mean profiles measured by SAGE II [Thomason et al., 1997 updated via private communication]. The profile of Be(y) is based on the Wamsley et al. relation with N2O, using MkIV measurements of N20O. All other model inputs given are based on direct MkIV measurements. Finally, we note the latitude of the MkIV tangent point varied considerably during sunrise on May 8, 1997. The simulations shown here were obtained using different latitudes for each altitude.

Source record↗