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DOE OSTI2018

System and method for optimal load and source scheduling in context aware homes

A controller for controlling energy consumption in a home includes a constraints engine to define variables for multiple appliances in the home corresponding to various home modes and persona of an occupant of the home. A modeling engine models multiple paths of energy utilization of the multiple appliances to place the home into a desired state from a current context. An optimal scheduler receives the multiple paths of energy utilization and generates a schedule as a function of the multiple paths and a selected persona to place the home in a desired state.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

System and method for optimal load and source scheduling in context aware homes

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Joint Search for the Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Gravitational-Wave Binary Black-Hole Merger Candidate S250328ae with the Dark Energy Camera and the Prime Focus Spectrograph

The first detection of an optical counterpart to a gravitational wave signal revealed that collaborative efforts between instruments with different specializations provide a unique opportunity to acquire impactful multi-messenger data. We present results of such a joint search with the Dark Energy Camera (DECam) and Prime Focus Spectrograph (PFS) for the optical counterpart of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA event S250328ae, a binary black hole merger candidate of high significance detected at a distance of 511$\pm$82 Mpc and localized within an area of 3 (15) square degrees at 50% (90%) confidence. We observed the 90% confidence area with DECam and identified 36 high-confidence transient candidates after image processing, candidate selection, and candidate vetting. We observed with PFS to obtain optical spectra of DECam candidates, Swift-XRT candidates, and potential host galaxies of S250328ae. In total, 3897 targets were observed by seven pointings covering ~50% of the 90% confidence area. After template fitting and visual inspection, we identified 12 SNe, 159 QSOs, 2975 galaxies, and 131 stars. With the joint observations of DECam and PFS, we found variability in 12 SNe, 139 QSOs, 37 galaxies, and 2 stars. We do not identify any confident optical counterparts, though the association is not ruled out for three variable candidates that are not observed by PFS and 6 QSO candidates without clear variability if the optical counterpart of S250328ae is faint. Despite the lack of confident optical counterparts, this paper serves as a framework for future collaborations between wide-field imagers and multi-object spectrographs to maximize multi-messenger analyses.

Zhang, Haibin [Natl. Astron. Observ. of Japan] (OR↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Guided Synthesis of Flash Graphene

Advances in nanoscience have enabled the synthesis of nanomaterials, such as graphene, from low-value or waste materials through flash Joule heating. Though this capability is promising, the complex and entangled variables that govern nanocrystal formation in the Joule heating process remain poorly understood. In this work, machine learning (ML) models are constructed to explore the factors that drive the transformation of amorphous carbon into graphene nanocrystals during flash Joule heating. An XGBoost regression model of crystallinity achieves an r 2 score of 0.8051 ± 0.054. Feature importance assays and decision trees extracted from these models reveal key considerations in the selection of starting materials and the role of stochastic current fluctuations in flash Joule heating synthesis. Furthermore, partial dependence analyses demonstrate the importance of charge and current density as predictors of crystallinity, implying a progression from reaction-limited to diffusion-limited kinetics as flash Joule heating parameters change. Finally, a practical application of the ML models is shown by using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms to automatically improve bulk crystallinity over many Joule heating reactions. Furthermore, these results illustrate the power of ML as a tool to analyze complex nanomanufacturing processes and enable the synthesis of 2D crystals with desirable properties by flash Joule heating.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2017

Measurement-induced deterministic and probabilistic entanglement with strong and weak interactions

A scheme is proposed to transform spatial coherence of a single particle into entanglement. Two quantum systems can be entangled by having them interact in parallel with an ancillary particle in a Mach–Zehnder interferometer, then making a suitable post-selection of the particle followed by a conditional feedforward on one of the systems to be entangled. For a strong interaction between each system and the ancilla, the process works deterministically. For a weaker interaction only the probability of success is reduced, but the output continues to be a maximally entangled state. It is demonstrated that the process is optimal when the two interactions are symmetric, systems with continuous variables are considered, and the effects of the environment are taken into account. - Highlights: • Presents a scheme for deterministic entanglement based on feedforward, if a strong interaction is available. • Presents a scheme for probabilistic entanglement, if only a weak interaction is available. • Specifies the importance of an equal interaction strength in both arms. • Includes the effects of the environment and of the internal degrees of freedom of the ancilla.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of jet substructure in boosted $t\overline{t}$ events with the ATLAS detector using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV $pp$ collisions

Measurements of the substructure of top-quark jets are presented, using 140 fb -1 of 13 TeV pp collision data recorded with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Top-quark jets reconstructed with the anti-k t algorithm with a radius parameter R = 1.0 are selected in top-quark pair ($t\overline{t}$) events where one top quark decays semileptonically and the other hadronically, or where both top quarks decay hadronically. The top-quark jets are required to have transverse momentum p T > 350 GeV, yielding large samples of data events with jet p T values between 350 and 600 GeV. One- and two-dimensional differential cross sections for eight substructure variables, defined using only the charged components of the jets, are measured in a particle-level phase space by correcting for the smearing and acceptance effects induced by the detector. The differential cross sections are compared with the predictions of several Monte Carlo simulations in which top-quark pair-production quantum chromodynamic matrix-element calculations at next-to-leading-order precision in the strong coupling constant α S are passed to leading-order parton shower and hadronization generators. The Monte Carlo predictions for measures of the broadness, and also the two-body structure, of the top-quark jets are found to be in good agreement with the measurements, while variables sensitive to the three-body structure of the top-quark jets exhibit some tension with the measured distributions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Two-Point Energy Correlators within Jets in 𝑝 + 𝑝 Collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 200 GeV

Hard-scattered partons ejected from high-energy proton-proton collisions undergo parton shower and hadronization, resulting in collimated collections of particles that are clustered into jets. A substructure observable that highlights the transition between the perturbative and nonperturbative regimes of jet evolution in terms of the angle between two particles is the two-point energy correlator (EEC). In this Letter, the first measurement of the EEC at RHIC is presented, using data taken from 200 GeV 𝑝 + 𝑝 collisions by the STAR experiment. The EEC is measured both for all the pairs of particles in jets and separately for pairs with like and opposite electric charges. These measurements demonstrate that the transition between perturbative and nonperturbative effects occurs within an angular region that is consistent with expectations of a universal hadronization regime that scales with jet momentum for a given initiator flavor. Additionally, a deviation from Monte Carlo predictions at small angles in the charge-selected sample could result from mechanics of hadronization not fully captured by current models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast Charging Infrastructure for Electrifying Road Trips to and from National Parks in the Western United States

National parks in the Western United States draw over 80 million visitors every year, and most visitors rely on personal cars for their road trips (or long-distance travels). Travel to national parks represents distinct travel demand, as they are typically located in remote areas necessitating long-distance trips. This study investigates the quantity and locations of on-route fast charging infrastructure needed by 2030 to enable seamless travel to/from national parks using electric vehicles in seven target states in the region, employing unprecedented high-resolution spatial and temporal analysis. We find that the required number of fast charging ports for on-route charging infrastructure ranges from 1,200 to 22,000, depending on different assumptions of key input parameters - vehicle electrification rate, charging behavior, average gap between charging stations, port utilization rate, and towing trailers. Our analysis also indicates that electrical load for on-route fast charging infrastructure would peak in the afternoon, in the range of 70-400 MW, varying with the key input parameters. This study illustrates how different input parameters result in different degrees of impact on various aspects of charging infrastructure. We also examine the characteristics of projected charging infrastructure in terms of land use type, relationship with traffic volume, size of stations, and other variables.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian inverse modeling of the atmospheric transport and emissions of a controlled tracer release from a nuclear power plant

Probability distribution functions (PDFs) of model inputs that affect the transport and dispersion of a trace gas released from a coastal California nuclear power plant are quantified using ensemble simulations, machine-learning algorithms, and Bayesian inversion. The PDFs are constrained by observations of tracer concentrations and account for uncertainty in meteorology, transport, diffusion, and emissions. Meteorological uncertainty is calculated using an ensemble of simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that samples five categories of model inputs (initialization time, boundary layer physics, land surface model, nudging options, and reanalysis data). The WRF output is used to drive tens of thousands of FLEXPART dispersion simulations that sample a uniform distribution of six emissions inputs. Machine-learning algorithms are trained on the ensemble data and used to quantify the sources of ensemble variability and to infer, via inverse modeling, the values of the 11 model inputs most consistent with tracer measurements. We find a substantial ensemble spread in tracer concentrations (factors of 10 to 10 3 ), most of which is due to changing emissions inputs (about 80%), though the cumulative effects of meteorological variations are not negligible. The performance of the inverse method is verified using synthetic observations generated from arbitrarily selected simulations. When applied to measurements from a controlled tracer release experiment, the inverse method satisfactorily determines the location, start time, duration and amount. In a 2 km × 2 km area of possible locations, the actual location is determined to within 200m. The start time is determined to within 5min out of 2h, and the duration to within 50min out of 4h. Over a range of release amounts of 10 to 1000kg, the estimated amount exceeds the actual amount of 146kg by only 32kg. The inversion also estimates probabilities of different WRF configurations. In conclusion, to best match the tracer observations, the highest-probability cases in WRF are associated with using a late initialization time and specific reanalysis data products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Approximating a linear multiplicative objective in watershed management optimization

Implementing management practices in a cost-efficient manner is critical for regional efforts to reduce the amount of pollutants entering the Chesapeake Bay. We study the problem of selecting a subset of practices that minimizes pollutant load—subject to budgetary and environmental constraints—as simulated in a widely used regulatory watershed model. Mimicking the computation of pollutant load in the regulatory model, we formulate this problem as a continuous optimization model with a linear multiplicative objective function and linear constraints. To lay the groundwork for incorporating additional stakeholder requirements in the future, especially those that would require integer variables, we present and study a continuous linear optimization model that approximates the nonlinear model. The linear model, which requires an exponential number of variables, arises naturally as an alternative model for the same underlying physical process. We examine the theoretical behavior of these optimization models and investigate restrictions of the linear model to handle its large number of variables. Through extensive computational tests on real and randomly generated instances, we demonstrate that the linear model and its restrictions provide optimal solutions close to those of the nonlinear model in practice, despite poor approximation properties in the worst case. We conclude that the linear model—together with our approach to handling its large number of variables—provides a viable framework from which to extend the optimization model to better meet the needs of the Chesapeake Bay watershed management stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental fate of radiocesium in biota inhabiting a contaminated ecosystem on the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

Although biomagnification of radiocesium ( 137 Cs) has been reported in food webs, most previous research has been limited to select trophic linkages. Few studies have included a comprehensive survey of fauna associated with aquatic, semi-aquatic, and terrestrial habitats within a single study framework. The objectives of this study were to advance our understanding of the dynamics of 137 Cs accumulation within food webs by quantifying 137 Cs activity across a wide range of biota found within a contaminated canal, as well as test the hypothesis that life-stage and body size influence 137 Cs bioaccumulation in select herpetofauna. With extensive sampling across multiple taxa collected from a contaminated canal system and associated floodplain on the Savannah River Site, we assessed 137 Cs activity and stable nitrogen isotopes for both aquatic organisms that were restricted to the contaminated effluent canal, and semi-aquatic organisms able to move freely between the contaminated canal and the adjacent uncontaminated terrestrial habitat. We found 137 Cs activity to be highly variable among species, with evidence for and against biomagnification in semi-aquatic and aquatic organisms, respectively. Furthermore, 137 Cs activity decreased with life stage and body size in bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus), despite post-metamorphic bullfrogs having a more carnivorous diet compared to tadpoles, while cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) retained similar 137 Cs activity regardless of their age and size. While evidence of biomagnification has been observed in some contaminated systems, results of our study suggest the extent to which 137 Cs biomagnifies within food webs is context-dependent and likely influenced by a suite of biotic and abiotic factors. Further, our data indicate sampling of a broad suite of species and environmental attributes are needed to elucidate the fate and dynamics of anthropogenic pollutants within contaminated ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Full-stack Quantification of Variability in Predicting Ion Transport Properties using Machine-learned Interatomic Potentials

Machine-learned interatomic potentials (MLIPs) have become the state-of-the-art for performing accurate, scalable molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. It is therefore crucial to understand and quantify the reliability of MLIPs for downstream property predictions. Uncertainty in predicted properties can arise from limitations in first-principles training data, intrinsic MLIP model errors in representing the data, and the statistical noise introduced during subsequent MD simulations. Using ion transport in Li7P3S11 as a case study, we systematically assess the impact of training set size and selection, neural network stochasticity, and MD sampling statistics on predicted diffusivity and activation energy. We find that when using equivariant MLIP architectures with standard MD protocols, uncertainty arising from MD sampling dominates over model-induced errors. In contrast, MLIP errors relative to the underlying first-principles data are consistently minor. Given this, there are two main routes to improving the accuracy of predictions based on MLIP potentials: adopting higher accuracy reference data generation methods, and improving the MD sampling statistics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Measurement of the $W^+W^-$ cross section in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 8 TeV and limits on anomalous gauge couplings

A measurement of the W boson pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions at √ s = 8 TeV is presented. The data we collected with the CMS detector at the LHC correspond to an integrated luminosity of 19.4 fb -1 . The W + W - candidates are selected from events with two charged leptons, electrons or muons, and large missing transverse energy. The measured W + W - cross section is 60.1 ± 0.9 (stat) ± 3.2 (exp) ± 3.1 (theo) ± 1.6 (lumi) pb = 60.1 ± 4.8 pb, consistent with the standard model prediction. The W + W - cross sections are also measured in two different fiducial phase space regions. In addition, the normalized differential cross section is measured as a function of kinematic variables of the final-state charged leptons and compared with several perturbative QCD predictions. Limits on anomalous gauge couplings associated with dimension-six operators are also given in the framework of an effective field theory. Finally, the corresponding 95% confidence level intervals are -5.7 < c WWW /Λ 2 < 5.9 TeV -2 , -11.4 < c W /Λ 2 < 5.4 TeV -2 , -29.2 < c B /Λ 2 < 23.9 TeV -2 , in the HISZ basis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Grand Challenge "Uncertainty Project" to Accelerate Advances in Earth System Predictability: AI-Enabled Concepts and Applications

This proposal is emerging from GISS ModelE3 ESM development in the area of cloud physics, so we begin with an example of research needs/gaps from that work. Here, some of our greatest development concerns arise where we lack fundamental process-level understanding, as in ice formation. Namely, it is currently unclear what is the main process that is forming the majority of ice crystals in commonly occurring convection, apparently via secondary ice production at warm temperatures. We are keenly awaiting laboratory data for candidate mechanisms, which is not yet in hand to crucially establish their efficiency. Our progress is also hampered by a lack of uncertainty characterization in currently available measurements of ice crystal number size distributions. Furthermore, the same multiplication process may be responsible for a majority of ice crystals in many extratropical mixed-phase clouds, whose variable representation in CMIP6 ESMs may be a leading cause of differences in cloud phase feedback and ECS. Yet we have been required to deliver an ESM with the cloud physics knowledge at hand. The proposed grand challenge project is AI-enabled via application of machine learning (ML) to climate model and observational data streams (focal area 3), and applications include AI-guided observing system design and model/component/parameterization selection (areas 1 and 2). The project is structurally agnostic as to whether model or observing system components use AI approaches or not, but uncertainties must be estimated and propagatable in both.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Flowability of Crumbler Rotary Shear Size-Reduced Granular Biomass: An Experiment-Informed Modeling Study on the Angle of Repose

Biomass has potential as a carbon-neutral alternative to petroleum for chemical and energy products. However, complete replacement of fossil fuel is contingent upon efficient processes to eliminate undesirable characteristics of biomass, e.g., low bulk density, variability, and storage-induced quality problems. Mechanical size reduction via comminution is a processing operation to engineer favorable biomass flowability in handling. Crumbler rotary shear mill has been empirically demonstrated to produce more uniformly shaped particles with higher flowability than hammermilled biomass. This study combines modeling and experimentation to unveil fundamental understandings of the relation between granular particle characteristics and biomass flow behavior, which elucidate underlying mechanisms and guide selection of critical processing parameters. For this purpose, the impact of critical material attributes, including particle size (2–6 mm), particle shape (briquette, chip, clumped-sphere, cube, etc.), and surface roughness, on the angle of repose (AOR) of milled pine chips were investigated using discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Forest Concepts Crumbler rotary shear system is used to produce milled pine particles within the same size range considered in DEM simulations. AOR of different sets of these particles were measured experimentally to benchmark DEM results against experimental data. Specific energy consumption for the comminution of biomass with different particle size and moisture content are measured for technoeconomic analysis. Our results show that the smaller size (2 mm) of pine particle achieves better followability (i.e., smaller AOR) while the energy cost of comminution is significantly higher and bulk density is almost the same as the 6-mm pine particles. For the 2-mm particle size, Crumbles from veneer have better flow properties than Crumbles from chips. Contrarily, no significant difference was observed between the AOR of the two materials for the 6-mm particle size. Furthermore, from DEM simulations, mechanical interlocking between particles was found as a dominant factor in determining AOR of complex-shaped particles such as milled pine, which cannot be accurately captured by using simple particle shapes (e.g., mono-sphere) with a rolling resistance model. Conversely, clumped-sphere model alleviates this limitation without increasing computational cost significantly and can be used for accurate representation of biomass granular particles when simulating free-flow behavior.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of forest degradation classification on the uncertainty of aboveground carbon estimates in the Amazon

Tropical forests are critical for the global carbon budget, yet they have been threatened by deforestation and forest degradation by fire, selective logging, and fragmentation. Existing uncertainties on land cover classification and in biomass estimates hinder accurate attribution of carbon emissions to specific forest classes. In this study, we used textural metrics derived from PlanetScope images to implement a probabilistic classification framework to identify intact, logged and burned forests in three Amazonian sites. We also estimated biomass for these forest classes using airborne lidar and compared biomass uncertainties using the lidar-derived estimates only to biomass uncertainties considering the forest degradation classification as well. Our classification approach reached overall accuracy of 0.86, with accuracy at individual sites varying from 0.69 to 0.93. Logged forests showed variable biomass changes, while burned forests showed an average carbon loss of 35%. We found that including uncertainty in forest degradation classification significantly increased uncertainty and decreased estimates of mean carbon density in two of the three test sites. Our findings indicate that the attribution of biomass changes to forest degradation classes needs to account for the uncertainty in forest degradation classification. By combining very high-resolution images with lidar data, we could attribute carbon stock changes to specific pathways of forest degradation. This approach also allows quantifying uncertainties of carbon emissions associated with forest degradation through logging and fire. Both the attribution and uncertainty quantification provide critical information for national greenhouse gas inventories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Optimal design of microtube recuperators for an indirect supercritical carbon dioxide recompression closed Brayton cycle

This paper presents a baseline design and optimization approach developed in Aspen Custom Modeler (ACM) for microtube shell-and-tube exchangers (MSTEs) used for high- and low-temperature recuperation in a 10 MWe indirect supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) recompression closed Brayton cycle (RCBC). The MSTE-type recuperators are designed using one-dimensional models with thermal-hydraulic correlations appropriate for sCO 2 and properties models that capture considerable nonlinear changes in CO 2 properties near the critical and pseudo-critical points. Using the successive quadratic programming (SQP) algorithm in ACM, optimal recuperator designs are obtained for either custom or industry-standard microtubes considering constraints based on current advanced manufacturing techniques. The three decision variables are the number of tubes, tube pitch-to-diameter ratio, and tube diameter. Five different objective functions based on different key design measures are considered: minimization of total heat transfer area, heat exchanger volume, metal weight, thermal residence time, and maximization of compactness. Sensitivities studies indicate the constraint on the maximum number of tubes per shell does affect the number of parallel heat exchanger trains but not the tube selection, total number of tubes, tube length and other key design measures in the final optimal design when considering industry-standard tubes. In this study, the optimally designed high- and low-temperature recuperators have 47,000 3/32 inch tubes and 63,000 1/16 inch tubes, respectively. In addition, sensitivities to the design temperature approach and maximum allowable pressure drop are studied, since these specifications significantly impact the optimal design of the recuperators as well as the thermal efficiency and the economic performance of the entire sCO 2 Brayton cycle.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗