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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Electric Vehicle Adoption in Illinois

Over 1.3 million plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have been sold in the United States since 2010 when the first Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf vehicles came on the market. Currently, electric vehicles account for about 2% of monthly light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales. More than 40 different electric vehicle models are actively being marketed, and most of these are LDVs. Over the last few years, automakers have brought more models, with varying mileage ranges, to the market, including medium-duty and heavy-duty trucks and buses. Government agencies at the federal, regional, and state levels, as well as utilities across the United States, have provided financial and non-financial incentives to promote electric vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure deployment. Argonne National Laboratory, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, has developed tools and collected data to quantify the energy, economic, and environmental benefits of electric vehicles. This project has three objectives. First, we summarize the policies and other actions of the federal government, various states/regions, and utilities to promote PEV adoption, and evaluate their relative effectiveness based on a review of the literature. Second, we identify possible PEV adoption paths or scenarios that would result in PEVs making up 15% of all on-road vehicles in Illinois, and we quantify the resulting impacts on petroleum consumption and electricity demand. We also summarize the possible reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) and criteria pollutant emissions due to PEV adoption. The PEV scenarios include private and public adoption of electric cars, light trucks (e.g., sports utility vehicles [SUVs], vans, pickups), medium-duty vehicles (MDVs), and heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs). Third, we estimate hourly charging loads of light-duty PEVs in 2030 associated with these scenarios, incorporating assumptions about vehicle electric range, efficiency, and travel behavior.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preparing Distribution Utilities for Utility-Scale Storage and Electric Vehicles: A Novel Analytical Framework

Emerging distributed energy resources (DERs)—such as solar photovoltaics (PV), battery energy storage systems (BESS), and electric vehicles (EVs)—are expected to increase substantially in India in the coming years following policy-driven targets of the Government of India to modernize its electricity system, reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), and improve air quality. These emerging technologies can pose challenges to distribution utilities, forcing overhauls in planning and operational practices. They can also create challenges in power system infrastructure planning and cause more frequent system operational violations (e.g., network voltage bounds and loading thresholds) if not properly integrated. The impacts on the localized power distribution grid from these emerging technologies manifest in increased infrastructure investments and erratic shifts in demand patterns. These impacts are not yet well understood, and analytic solutions are not readily available. To address these challenges, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), in collaboration with BSES Rajdhani Power Ltd. (BRPL), developed an advanced power distribution system impact analysis framework of BRPL’s distribution system. This framework helps analyze the readiness of the power distribution network to accommodate emerging technologies and the potential opportunities they might introduce. The framework has been predominantly set up to evaluate distributed PV, BESS, and EVs. In this collaboration between NREL and BRPL, we developed and evaluated the framework on two distribution feeders in the BRPL territory for various scenarios of BESS and EVs. BESS are evaluated for their effectiveness on the grid to mitigate present and future feeder overloading scenarios, and they are subsequently analyzed for their costs compared to the costs of traditional upgradation measures. Scenarios include assessing the effects of EV density on grid infrastructure upgrades and interlinking EV management with BESS integration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Austin Sustainable and Holistic Integration of Energy Storage and Solar PV [Austin SHINES]. Final Report, Version 2

The Austin SHINES project and solution is a software management platform, for an electric grid with a high penetration of dispersed photovoltaic (PV) solar generation sites, which maintains the traditional power quality and reliability associated with grid service. This project developed and deployed the platform as a Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS), engaging multiple advanced controls, to evaluate operation and optimization of a fleet of diverse DER assets, installed at several locations among Austin Energy’s customers and distribution system. The project also produced a methodology to create a replicable DERMS template, adaptable to other regions and market structures. Last, Austin SHINES aimed to demonstrate the solution’s methodology would enable the DER grid ecosystem to serve load at a technical cost (System Levelized Cost of Electricity, or System LCOE) of less than the U.S. Department of Energy SHINES program metric of $0.14/kWh, in a defined boundary, while enabling a high penetration of distributed PV. Research was categorized in 6 reports (Final Deliverables = FD) listed below, with titles and descriptions indicating which area of understanding was investigated: FD-1: System Levelized Cost of Electricity (System LCOE) Methodology The creation and use of the System LCOE to Serve Load metric that encompasses the holistic, system-level costs and benefits of all resources, and enables them to be evaluated based on their ability to support an efficient and low-cost integrated grid ecosystem. FD-2: Software Platform Product Description The creation of new DER control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform that enable DER's to maximize their benefit within a grid, that is capable of serving load enabling a high penetration of distributed PV generation. FD-3: Optimal Design Methodology Optimal design methodologies for individual DER installations that enable utilities to determine the optimal combinations and sizing for individual DER sites. FD-4: Austin SHINES Ownership and Operation Models for DER System Performance A comparison of multiple DER aggregation and ownership methodologies including direct utility control, third-party aggregator, and autonomous. FD-5: Economic Modeling & Optimization A comparison of multiple DER technology mixes and configurations within the distribution system, providing insight into an optimal blend of technologies that best enable the distribution system to serve load at the lowest cost at high penetrations of solar. FD-6: Fielded Assets Deployed DER assets within the Austin Energy SHINES circuits. Austin SHINES provided an opening for state-of-the-art technology products to be deployed, providing a rich opportunity for improving how each of the products perform as stand-alone products, and in concert with other complementary products. The Austin SHINES project comprised of two key metrics for System LCOE: SystemLCOE_SHINES<$0.14/kWh Modeled ΔSystemLCOE_SHINES/ΔSystemLCOE_Base≥20% at same solar penetration The System LCOE calculation uses the costs of the utility-owned infrastructure as it exists today, the cost of the DERs that exist in the system today, and the cost of the purchase of energy from ERCOT wholesale markets over the course of the calendar year. All costs are on an annualized basis. The capital and operating costs are derived from the rate case, which produces a yearly cost. The net cost of energy and services imported to the system is integrated over the test year, as is the load served and solar penetration. The first metric was easily achieved by every scenario considered. The goal was set when the Department of Energy’s SHINES Funding Opportunity Announcement was written in 2015 and was a more difficult target at the time. Due mostly to rapidly declining costs for DERs and the significant decrease in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) energy market prices, which results in lower net cost of energy purchases, the System LCOE is well below this target for all scenarios considered. A fleet of DERs can assume different mixtures, each of which serves the load at a different LCOE. The optimal mixture of DERs serves load at the smallest System LCOE. The second metric (hereinafter %delta metric) asks that the holistic DERMS controls reduce the incremental cost above the baseline of going to a high solar penetration future by at least 20% as compared to the case of a DER deployment with no sophisticated controls (autonomous). Many comparison sets were created throughout this project. Physical technology was installed for informing utility engineering and testing several types of operational control schemes, through the DERMS. The types of operational control which were compared for valuation of the System LCOE Metric were: Holistic control = using the full suite of the DERMS platform to decide and optimize how/why the systems operate depending on weather, market, and reliability signal input. Autonomous control = a local mode at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only No control = the baseline for comparing value against the other two types of control The types of ownership control included: Direct Utility control = the utility dispatches a signal to each asset Third-Party Aggregator = a third party aggregates a fleet of assets and the utility dispatches one signal for all Autonomous = a local mode is set for operation at the asset site, wherein a schedule operates the asset, with visibility into performance only The types of control methodologies deployable within a utility-grade software platform included: Utility Peak Load Reduction = Lower transmission cost obligation Day-Ahead Energy Arbitrage = Realize economic value through price differential Real-Time Price Dispatch = Realize economic value from real-time price spikes Voltage support = Reduce losses and increase solar generation Distribution Congestion Management = Increase local grid reliability Demand Charge Reduction = Lower customer bills and realize system benefit The fielded assets deployed for the project were: Utility Scale Kingsbery Energy Storage System: 1.5 MW / 3 MWh Li-Ion battery storage Mueller Energy Storage System: 1.75 MW / 3.2 MWh Li-Ion battery storage, 7 Energy Storage Units (250 kW each) La Loma Community Solar: 2.6 MW Commercial Scale Aggregated storage installations at 3 sites, with existing solar (300+ kW): One 18 kW / 36 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Two 72 kW / 144 kWh Li-Ion battery storage Residential Scale Aggregated storage installations: -Six stationary battery storage systems (10 kWh each) at homes with existing solar -One Electric Vehicle installed as Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Utility-Controlled Solar via Smart Inverters at 12 homes Autonomously-Controlled Smart Inverters at 6 homes Over the course of the project, Austin SHINES undertook installing more than 3 MW of distributed battery energy storage, smart PV inverters, a DER control platform, and other enabling technologies utilizing customer and utility locations and aggregation models. All of these resources were to be integrated and optimized at the utility level. DER assets and control methodologies were designed to achieve a credible pathway to a System LCOE for energy delivered to load of $0.14//kWh or less by 2020, while maximizing distributed solar generation and maintaining acceptable standards of power quality. The project also established a template for other regions to follow, to maximize the adoption of distributed solar PV in support of an economic and efficient grid. In total, the Austin SHINES project added value to the DER subject area in each layer of integration. From utility, to commercial to residential scales, the sheer hierarchy of communication and coordination was a significant accomplishment in addition to learnings from what these communications revealed was unique to each. Economically, the most effective method demonstrated was the criticality of planning phases. Contingencies and multiple projection scenarios helped guide the project to deploy optimal design as close as feasible, in real world conditions. The project and reports will serve public benefit by outlining specific areas of DER strategy and installation where many stakeholders and needs can be addressed with improved efficiency. Overall, communities and utilities should use the results to guide the increasing options available for powering the grid with DER, renewables, and carbon considerate energy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Managing Solar Photovoltaic Integration in the Western United States: Resource Adequacy Considerations

This study examines the impact of reserve margin-based reliability assessment, as commonly used in capacity expansion models, on planning resource-adequate power systems under high penetrations of solar photovoltaics (PV). As a generation resource, PV is operationally different from the conventional dispatchable resources for which most capacity expansion models were designed. The question this study attempts to answer is whether large amounts of PV on a system (in this case, the Western Interconnection of North America) would bias the results of conventional reserve margin-based capacity expansion modeling towards an over- or under-provisioning of resource adequacy. This analysis used NREL’s Resource Planning Model (RPM) for capacity expansion modeling and NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS) for resource adequacy assessment. RPM uses a reserve margin requirement to enforce resource adequacy. PRAS, a collection of tools for studying the resource adequacy of power systems and the adequacy contributions of individual resources on a probabilistic basis, was used to compute multiple resource adequacy metrics across a number of simulated scenarios and system representations with differing regional detail. In all cases, including high PV penetrations (up to 33% annual generation from PV, interconnection-wide), RPM was able to produce resource-adequate systems as measured by normalized expected unserved energy and loss-of-load expectation results from PRAS. The accuracy of reserve margin approaches depends heavily on the underlying assumptions informing the capacity credit assigned to variable and energy-limited resources, particularly when such resources are abundant in the modeled system. RPM’s standard methodology for estimating variable and flexible resources’ capacity contributions, which is based on the top 100 hours of net load, did not appear to systematically undervalue or overvalue variable generation relative to a more rigorous equivalent firm capacity assessment using PRAS, although both over- and under-valuations were observed in specific scenarios. In the worst cases, the top 100 hour method underestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by two percentage points, and overestimated the equivalent firm capacity of PV by five percentage points. Calculating capacity contributions based on the top 10 hours of net load systematically underestimated equivalent firm capacities at more modest PV penetrations, but was often a better approximation of equivalent firm capacity than the existing 100-hour approach in scenarios with higher PV penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling the Functional Forms of Grid Disturbances

This report introduces a functional form that may be used to quantitatively predict the impacts of new grid tools and changing system qualities on the likelihoods, durations, and depths of various grid disturbances. Each disturbance scenario is modeled to have three component stages—avoidance, reactance and recovery, which together parametrically estimate one disturbance’s impacts. The modeled scenario is then placed and replicated within an analysis period to represent the likelihood or frequency of the scenario and its consequent impacts. Whereas analysts have struggled to define and apply metrics for grid resilience, the functional form introduced by this report shares units of measurement with accepted grid-status measures (e.g., numbers of customers currently experiencing a service outage). Furthermore, the integrated and averaged functional form over an analysis period provides a meaningful normalized performance metric (e.g., customer outage minutes per year) that is ultimately independent of the duration of the period of. The approach may be applied similarly regardless of the severity or frequency of the disturbances that are being analyzed. Because metrics can be chosen to be identical in both the hypothetical future and the actual historical past, the historical past eventually becomes the test of the future predictions, at least in a statistical sense. The authors originally developed this approach to facilitate analysis of the effects of transactive energy (TE) systems effects on electric power grid resilience. TE systems invite energy suppliers and consumers to actively collaborate toward the discovery of, and their responses to, the locational value of energy. The findings from this process are often embodied as energy prices, the dynamics of which indicate the locational value of energy and can further represent important grid service needs. While some academic papers claim to quantify the value of a specific TE system design toward grid resilience, the answer, in general, has been elusive. Not only do multiple and conflicting definitions of resilience and reliability exist, but countless TE systems are being invented. We conclude the following: (1) The ideal analysis should harmonize rather than differentiate resilience and reliability. Therefore, this report uses the more general term disturbance whenever the overloaded terms resilience and reliability can be avoided. (2) The effectiveness of TE systems must be mapped to underlying qualities of a TE system, thereby avoiding presumptions that every TE design offers similar advantages. The authors seek to evaluate the parametric effects of TE system qualities (e.g., spatial granularity, granularity of time steps, length of future prediction horizon) on avoiding, reacting to, and recovering from grid disturbances. Furthermore, any advantages (or disadvantages) must be fairly compared with the many alternative tools, systems, and strategies that might offer comparable benefits.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Applied to Puerto Rico Electric Infrastructure

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Electricity and Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy have funded DOE National Laboratories to perform modeling, analysis, and high-level design of resilience-enhancement options for the power grid of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is one of the national laboratories contributing to the DOE effort. Under this funding, PNNL completed Phase I of their analysis in 2018, which identified high-priority transmission enhancements derived from detailed dynamic cascading analysis of severe contingencies, including a hurricane scenario example. This report describes additional analysis completed under Phase II, which was performed over 2019. The PNNL team applied decades of experience making complex power systems more resilient, reliable, secure, flexible, affordable and sustainable, with partners in government and industry. In this report, PNNL presents the Phase II analysis, in which a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis approach to evaluate impact of several hurricane scenarios was developed. This approach was used to identify high-priority enhancements and test resilience mitigation actions, including the evaluation of high-solar scenarios developed as a result of the 2019 Puerto Rico Integrated Resource Plan (IRP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Methods for Capturing System Interactions of Combined Technologies: A Study of PV + Battery

The costs of solar photovoltaics (PV) have been dropping in recent years, leading to increasing installations of solar PV systems and growing interest in how the technology will impact the electric grid at higher penetrations. Additionally, as battery costs decline it becomes important to understand the benefits and limitations of battery storage for the grid as well as potential benefits of co-locating battery storage and PV, particularly within the realm of future system planning. However, it is non-trivial to capture these potential benefits within a linearized capacity expansion model (CEM). This paper presents methodological developments to more fully represent the value and limitations of coupled PV and battery systems (PV + Battery) in CEMs using the Resource Planning Model (RPM), which co-optimizes capacity investments, transmission investments, and reduced-order dispatch in the Western Interconnection of North America through 2045. We use the model to simulate the evolution of the generation and transmission system under two core scenarios - a baseline scenario and a high renewable penetration scenario - coupled with sensitivities assuming low and midline PV and battery cost projections. When incorporating PV + battery, we find that it is important for CEMs to capture the ability of the coupled technology to provide firm capacity and reduce expected curtailment, compared to independent systems. These interactions can have even more dramatic impacts at higher solar penetrations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A U.S. Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy, and a companion report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS): A Canadian Perspective

The North American electric power system is undergoing significant change, with renewable resources now contributing more generation than ever before. This transformation is poised to continue given decreasing technology costs and ambitious decarbonization goals at the federal, state, local, corporate, and consumer levels. The North American Renewable Integration Study (NARIS) aims to inform grid planners, utilities, industry, policymakers, and other stakeholders about challenges and opportunities for continental system integration of large amounts of wind, solar, and hydropower to support a low-carbon future grid. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducted a detailed, continent-wide analysis with planning scenarios of transmission, generation, and demand to reach 80%–92% carbon reductions (from 2005) for the Canadian electric power system, and up to 80% reductions continent-wide. We used a suite of models to study future scenarios and gain insights, including potential impacts on costs, emissions, resource adequacy, and the specific technologies that help enable the transition to a low-carbon grid. Our analysis had a particular focus on the potential role of cooperation among the three North American countries and between regions within each country, and how transmission can support sharing of supply and demand diversity. The NARIS project began in 2016. This report describes a Canadian perspective in coordination with the Natural Resources Canada, and a companion report describes a U.S. perspective in coordination with the U.S. Department of Energy. NARIS was an extension of a previous body of work, including the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study, the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study, Interconnections Seam Study, and the Pan Canadian Wind Integration Study. NARIS analyzed the entire continent in detail while studying higher renewable generation than previous studies. The scenarios in NARIS were informed by the goals in the Mid-Century Strategies for the Paris Agreement in each country.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Concentrating Solar-Thermal Technologies in a Decarbonized U.S. Grid

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Solar Futures Study explores the roles solar energy technologies could play in the future U.S. energy markets under different scenarios. This report discusses the role of concentrating solar-thermal (CST) technologies in those future scenarios with an emphasis on concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP), which refers to converting thermal energy to electricity. The report begins with an overview of the CSP resource and market status. Next we discuss the results from the grid-scale capacity planning modeling under future scenarios considered in the Solar Futures Study, focusing on the results for CSP and presenting several sensitivity model results not discussed in the main report. We then discuss likely CST research and industry directions over the next decade. Finally we discuss three potential future markets for CST beyond electricity generation -- industrial process heat, solar fuels production, and electric thermal energy storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

WSF PISA example for SAFER pilot

On October 15, 2021, the Radioactive and Hazardous Waste Management Facility Manager declared a Potential Inadequacy in the Safety Analysis (PISA) due to a new information relating to an error discovered in calculation AB-WSF-20-002. Calculation AB-WSF-20-002 is used to determine source terms and heat release rates for vehicle and aircraft impacts with fuel fires involving TRU waste containers. The source term for an aircraft’s impact has different source terms factors (i.e., DR, ARF, RF, LPF) that are applied to multiple categories of drums impacted in the accident scenario based on the physical stresses of the aircraft impact and involvement in the subsequent fuel pool fire. The source terms of the multiple categories of affected drums are summed to determine the final source term for the accident scenario. Certain categories of affected drums are modeled to lose their lid, causing material to eject and burn unconfined on the ground. For these specific categories, a lower ARF value was incorrectly applied in AB-WSF-20-002 (i.e., an ARF value of 1E-3 was used instead of the DOE-STD-5506-2007 directed ARF value of 1E-2). For these categories, the ARF is applied to a relatively small number of low-activity drums (i.e., 17 drums at 2.9 PE-Ci each) compared to the total number of drums affected (i.e., 166 drums totaling 621.8 PE-Ci). Therefore, this error is not expected to significantly increase final dose for the accident scenario. No immediate actions or compensatory measures are required to maintain the facility in a safe condition.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sea ice evolution along the Northern Sea Route and implications for trans-Arctic shipping from 2021 through 2060

Arctic surface temperatures warmed at twice the global average in the second half of the 20 th century due to Arctic amplification (AA), a phenomenon predominantly caused by regional polar changes, like the melting of perennial sea ice and reduced sea ice extent (leading to more solar radiation being absorbed by the ocean surface as opposed to being reflected back to space by the ice surface). AA is projected to reach a factor of three even if the climate is stabilized by the mid 21 st century by reduced greenhouse gas emissions. In all emissions scenarios, AA is projected to lead to temperature changes at least 2.4 times larger than global mean surface temperature changes occurring between 2070 and 2100. The ice-albedo feedback, which occurs when the polar-marine surface absorbs more radiation as highly reflective sea ice melts, is reversible such that the premise of a runaway process is no longer accepted as a realistic possibility. No matter what actions are taken to reduce CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere from now on, two different methods of predicting an ice-free Arctic suggest that perennial sea ice will mostly disappear in September by the year 2050. If there is no reduction in anthropogenic CO 2 and methane emissions, that scenario could occur sooner than 2030. Defining Arctic navigability as safe and economic passage of Polar Class 7 cargo ships without need of an escorting icebreaker, no single trans Arctic ship route will be navigable year-round in the first half of the 21 st century, including in the strong emission scenarios. However, seasonal trans-Arctic navigability will increase this century. An estimate on the number of days per year that the Northern See Route (NSR) will be navigable in the future is beyond the scope of this report. Along Northern Sea Routes 5 and 6, which run close to the Russian coast and Yamal LNG plant, an ARC 7 ice class LNG tanker, the equivalent of a Polar Class 3 (PC3) vessel, will be at low risk in December through April at some point during the current decade. May will continue to entail some risk (more than April) along relatively short segments of these routes through the end of the next decade (2030-2039). Come June, snow rapidly melts away, and thereafter the underlying sea ice begins becomes thinner and less concentrated, greatly reducing risk. However, neither path is desirable for ARC 7 tankers due to shallow bathymetry in Sannikov Strait, and a more desirable path for these ships passes to the north of the New Siberian Islands (route 20, discussed further below). Conventional LNG tankers (i.e., non-ice-strengthened vessels according to the IMO classification), without icebreaker escorts, will continue to encounter dangerous or impassable conditions along many sections of the NSR through the end of this decade for many months of the year. Through 2039, these conventional tankers will be able to operate safely along NSR 6 from August through October. By 2040-2049, the span of safe operation increases to August through November, and by 2050-2059 it increases to July through November, assuming a northward deviation to avoid the Sannikov Strait.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing the Operational Resilience of Advanced Reactors with Digital Twins by Recurrent Neural Networks

Because of a lack of operational data and uncertainty in evaluation model for abnormal and accident scenarios, the established operating procedures can be biased in characterizing the reactor states and ensuring operational resilience. To reduce uncertainty associated with actual plant conditions, digital twin (DT) technology is suggested to support operator’s decision-making by effectively extracting and using knowledge of the current and future plant states from the knowledge base. This study first builds a knowledge base based on the characterization of issue space and the simulation tool. Next, this study discusses diagnosis and prognosis DTs for enhancing operational resilience by recovering the complete states of reactors and by predicting the future reactor behaviors. Finally, the decision-making module of the control system can determine the optimal control strategy that meets operational goals during loss-of-flow scenarios. To demonstrate and evaluate the DTs capability for supporting the operations of nuclear reactors, this study develops and assesses both the diagnosis and prognosis DTs in a nearly autonomous management and control system for an Experimental Breeder Reactor-II simulator during different loss-of-flow scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating static PRA information with risk informed safety margin characterization (RISMC) simulation methods

The overall objective of the project was to develop a computationally feasible and user-friendly mechanized process to integrate traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and dynamic PRA (DPRA) results. Starting with the systematic identification of items in an existing PRA that need dynamic augmentation, the project used a generic 4-loop pressurized reactor (PWR) and 3-loop PWR as example plants. Station blackout (SBO) and large break loss of coolant accident SBLOCA) were selected as the example initiating events. Using the traditional event-tree (ET)/fault-tree (FT) methodology augmented by dynamic evet tree approach, the potential consequences of the initiating events were simulated with RELAP-3D and MELCOR/RASCAL codes to cover Level 1 through Level 3 of PRA. RAVEN and ADAPT software were used to generate Level 1 simulations with RELAP-3D and Level 2/3 simulations with MELCOR (Level 2)/RASCAL (Level 3), respectively. Example branching conditions (BCs) for SBO included AC power recovery time, valve repair failure time, reactor coolant pump leak time/break size and emergency power supply duration to a total of 9. Example BCs for LOCA included off-site power recovery time, diesel generator power recovery time, auxiliary feed water system operation time, safety relief valve failure to open upon demand, reactor coolant pump seal break time and size to a total of 21. Each RELAP-3D simulation (9,587 scenarios) was labelled OK or Core Damage based on the maximum allowed peak clad temperature (2,100oF). Each MELCOR simulation (4610 scenarios) was labeled as Bin over 10rem or Bin 0-10rem based on the dose at the site boundary. The scenarios were clustered based on the criteria above using the mean shift methodology. Classical PRA (CPRA) and DPRA results were compared to identify the ET sequences that need DPRA augmentation. Several approaches were proposed for the incorporation of these sequences into CPRA using clustering with the mean shift methodology, restructuring the CPRA ETs by adding new BCs/sequences, and using the concept of a limit surface. Procedures for decision making regarding the possible consequences of an initiating event (e.g. core damage or not, site evacuation or not) were developed using a convolutional neural network (CNN), a recurrent neural network (RNN) and a transformer neural network (TNN). The project has led to two PhD degrees, three archival journal papers and five refereed conference proceedings.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

International Radiological/Nuclear Training for Emergency Response - Major Public Events Virtual Workshop: Alarm Interdiction and Adjudication and Source Recovery (Day 4) [Slides]

The objective of this presentation is for participants to understand the process for interdicting and adjudicating radiation alarms and review operational scenarios for radiological emergency response best practices. The specific goal is for participants to: (1) Become familiar with the Primary and Secondary Inspection process for alarm interdiction, investigation, and adjudication, (2) Gain knowledge of common operational scenarios where alarm interdiction, investigation and adjudication are conducted as best practices, and (3) Review several scenarios that could be encountered as part of the Nuclear Security measures for an MPE.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design Considerations for Fermilab Multi-MW Proton Facility in the DUNE/LBNF era

Fermilab has submitted two Snowmass whitepapers on a future 2.4~MW upgrade for DUNE/LBNF featuring a 2 GeV extension of the PIP-II linac and the construction of a new rapid-cycling-synchrotron. This paper summarizes the relationship between these two scenarios, emphasizing the commonalities and tracing the differences to their original design questions. In addition to a high-level summary of the two 2.4~MW upgrade scenarios, there is a brief discussion of staging, beamline capabilities, subsequent upgrades, and relevant R&D. We are proposing a vigorous program to address various challenges associated with each scenario and to down-select the concept, most suitable to provide proton beams for years to come.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hanford Site Composite Analysis: Dose Sensitivity Analyses

This environmental calculation file (ECF) documents the methodologies, assumptions, and results of five analyses that evaluate parameter changes to the revised Hanford Site Composite Analysis (CA) (DOE-RL-2019-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau). Specifically, this ECF describes the impact on total dose and analyte-specific doses for five sensitivity cases where changes to the following exposure-related parameters were implemented – (1) inventory, (2) recharge rate, (3) external dose conversion factors (DCFs) based on Federal Guidance Report (FGR) No. 15 in (EPA-402-R-19-002, Federal Guidance Report No. 15, External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water, and Soil) instead of FGR No. 12 (EPA 402-R-93-081, Federal Guidance Report No. 12, External Exposure to Radionuclides in Air, Water, and Soil) for groundwater pathway scenario; (4) use of mean instead of 95th percentile intake assumptions for groundwater pathway scenario; and (5) consideration of limited sources based on U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owned waste sites regulated under DOE O 435.1, Radioactive Waste Management. It should be noted that dose assessments for both base and sensitivity cases are based on the all-pathways representative person groundwater exposure scenario presented in DOE/RL-2022-52, Composite Analysis for Low-Level Waste Disposal in the Hanford Site Central Plateau.

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