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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Extracting the asymptotic behavior of S-matrix elements from their phases

The asymptotic kinematic limits of S-matrices are dominated by large logarithms which, roughly speaking, fall into two categories: those which are controlled by a renormalization group (RG) scale, which we may think of as logs involving ratios of invariant mass scales, and those which are functions of ratios of rapidities, so called “rapidity logs”. It has been pointed out by Caron-Huot and Wilhlem [1] that RG anomalous dimension can be extracted from the phase of the S-matrix, which can greatly simplify calculations via unitarity methods. In this paper we generalize the results of [1] to show that the phase can be used to reconstruct rapidity anomalous dimensions, by performing a special type of complex boost. The methodology introduced allows one to calculate without the need for a rapidity regulator which can lead to significant simplifications. We demonstrate the use of this method to derive the rapidity anomalous dimensions in the Sudakov form factor and the two parton soft function at two loops order.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mafic explosive volcanism at Llaima Volcano: 3D x-ray microtomography reconstruction of pyroclasts to constrain shallow conduit processes

Abstract Mafic volcanic activity is dominated by effusive to mildly explosive eruptions. Plinian and ignimbrite-forming mafic eruptions, while rare, are also possible; however, the conditions that promote such explosivity are still being explored. Eruption style is determined by the ability of gas to escape as magma ascends, which tends to be easier in low-viscosity, mafic magmas. If magma permeability is sufficiently high to reduce bubble overpressure during ascent, volatiles may escape from the magma, inhibiting violent explosive activity. In contrast, if the permeability is sufficiently low to retain the gas phase within the magma during ascent, bubble overpressure may drive magma fragmentation. Rapid ascent may induce disequilibrium crystallization, increasing viscosity and affecting the bubble network with consequences for permeability, and hence, explosivity. To explore the conditions that promote strongly explosive mafic volcanism, we combine microlite textural analyses with synchrotron x-ray computed microtomography of 10 pyroclasts from the 12.6 ka mafic Curacautín Ignimbrite (Llaima Volcano, Chile). We quantify microlite crystal size distributions (CSD), microlite number densities, porosity, bubble interconnectivity, bubble number density, and geometrical properties of the porous media to investigate the role of magma degassing processes at mafic explosive eruptions. We use an analytical technique to estimate permeability and tortuosity by combing the Kozeny-Carman relationship, tortuosity factor, and pyroclast vesicle textures. The groundmass of our samples is composed of up to 44% plagioclase microlites, > 85% of which are < 10 µm in length. In addition, we identify two populations of vesicles in our samples: (1) a convoluted interconnected vesicle network produced by extensive coalescence of smaller vesicles (> 99% of pore volume), and (2) a population of very small and completely isolated vesicles (< 1% of porosity). Computed permeability ranges from 3.0 × 10 −13 to 6.3 × 10 −12 m 2 , which are lower than the similarly explosive mafic eruptions of Tarawera (1886; New Zealand) and Etna (112 BC; Italy). The combination of our CSDs, microlite number densities, and 3D vesicle textures evidence rapid ascent that induced high disequilibrium conditions, promoting rapid syn-eruptive crystallization of microlites within the shallow conduit. We interpret that microlite crystallization increased viscosity while simultaneously forcing bubbles to deform as they grew together, resulting in the permeable by highly tortuous network of vesicles. Using the bubble number densities for the isolated vesicles (0.1-3 −3 × 10 4 bubbles per mm 3 ), we obtain a minimum average decompression rate of 1.4 MPa/s. Despite the textural evidence that the Curacautín magma reached the percolation threshold, we propose that rapid ascent suppressed outgassing and increased bubble overpressures, leading to explosive fragmentation. Further, using the porosity and permeability of our samples, we estimated that a bubble overpressure > 5 MPa could have been sufficient to fragment the Curacautín magma. Other mafic explosive eruptions report similar disequilibrium conditions induced by rapid ascent rate, implying that syn-eruptive disequilibrium conditions may control the explosivity of mafic eruptions more generally.

Valdivia, Pedro↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation–Moisture Coupling Over Tropical Oceans: Sequential Roles of Shallow, Deep, and Mesoscale Convective Systems

We report Precipitation over tropical oceans rapidly increases when the environmental column saturation fraction (CSF) increases past a critical value of ~0.7. Past studies suggested that increased stratiform rainfall greatly contributes to the rapid rainfall enhancement. In this study, the sequential roles of non-deep convection, deep convection, and mesoscale convective system (MCS) in precipitation-moisture interactions are examined using 19 years of satellite observations. When CSF is below ~0.5, non-deep convection dominates total rainfall, and predominantly contributes to moistening of the environment. Between the CSF range of 0.5–0.7, transition to deep convective rainfall begins. Meanwhile, MCS contribution to total rain rapidly increases, and the environment is further moistened. MCS becomes the major rainfall type above the critical CSF value (~0.7), with the rapid increase of total rain mostly explained by the rapid increase in MCS rain area. Rainfall reduction at high CSF values is jointly contributed by MCS and non-deep convection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks (FEVER): A computational tool for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing of emerging viral pathogens

Viral pathogens can rapidly evolve, adapt to novel hosts, and evade human immunity. The early detection of emerging viral pathogens through biosurveillance coupled with rapid and accurate diagnostics are required to mitigate global pandemics. However, RNA viruses can mutate rapidly, hampering biosurveillance and diagnostic efforts. Here, we present a novel computational approach called FEVER (Fast Evaluation of Viral Emerging Risks) to design assays that simultaneously accomplish: 1) broad-coverage biosurveillance of an entire group of viruses, 2) accurate diagnosis of an outbreak strain, and 3) mutation typing to detect variants of public health importance. We demonstrate the application of FEVER to generate assays to simultaneously 1) detect sarbecoviruses for biosurveillance; 2) diagnose infections specifically caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); and 3) perform rapid mutation typing of the D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike variant associated with increased pathogen transmissibility. These FEVER assays had a high in silico recall (predicted positive) up to 99.7% of 525,708 SARS-CoV-2 sequences analyzed and displayed sensitivities and specificities as high as 92.4% and 100% respectively when validated in 100 clinical samples. The D614G SARS-CoV-2 spike mutation PCR test was able to identify the single nucleotide identity at position 23,403 in the viral genome of 96.6% SARS-CoV-2 positive samples without the need for sequencing. This study demonstrates the utility of FEVER to design assays for biosurveillance, diagnostics, and mutation typing to rapidly detect, track, and mitigate future outbreaks and pandemics caused by emerging viruses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

5.1.6 Demo #6: NanoStitch (NAWAStitch) Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation

The overall objective of the NanoStitch Multifunctional Composites Trade Validation Demonstration project was to determine the value proposition of adding NanoStitch to rapid-cure composite systems for structures used in the expanding sector of advanced air mobility (AAM) and specifically electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. The expected value proposition was stronger composite parts, with new multifunctional attributes, that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. NanoStitch is a new composite innovation where a contiguous vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VACNT) forest is located between each ply of a laminate composite resulting in improved mechanical properties as well as other multifunctional properties such as enhanced thermal and electrical conductivity. NanoStitch was originally distributed by N12, later acquired by NAWA Technologies, now called NAWAStitch, and henceforth referred to in this document as NAWAStitch. Two significant evaluations were framed to help meet the overall objective. First, was Task 1 to evaluate the effects that adding NAWAStitch to a rapid cure material system would have on the mechanical and processing properties of the material. Second, was Task 2 to evaluate the workability of adding NAWAStitch to practical flight demonstration articles. From previous research, it was already known that the application of NAWAStitch to a composite structure can enhance the mechanical properties of that structure. However, this project will help the engineering community understand those benefits and the basic structural strength values to apply when incorporating NAWAStitch material into composite structure that utilizes a rapid-cure resin system, which is novel. Testing showed that by adding NAWAStitch to the prepreg, most material properties were improved because the VACNTs strengthened the resin to fiber interface, and the interface itself, between plies. For example compression strength improved by more than 20%, and erosion resistance by more than 50%. The UDRI team identified two flight demonstration articles through discussions with Aurora Flight Sciences (Aurora) and reviewing literature on air mobility and the eVTOL market. The demonstration articles were a thin skin honeycomb panel and a section from an eVTOL propeller blade. The manufacturing and testing trials of the demonstration articles were as follows: • NAWAStitch added no manufacturing complexity or detriment to the article physical qualities, while at the same time added multifunctional properties such as enhanced rain erosion and electrothermal de-icing besides enhanced mechanical properties • VACNTs did not increase or hurt the mechanical properties of the interface between honeycomb core materials and the thin skin face sheet • Demonstrated successful de-icing function in an eVTOL propeller meeting real-world specifications in uniformity and endurance • Multifunctional eVTOL propeller cost analysis showed a cost savings of at least 67 % for a single propeller blade with multifunctional de-icing capability and improved mechanical properties which equates to a potential savings of $10,116 per eVTOL aircraft with six three-bladed propellers Overall, the results of this project can provide additional tools for the composite industry to optimize energy efficiency through faster and stronger composite parts that are lower cost to fabricate and maintain. Additionally, the results of this effort can help US industry like NAWA America set the stage for rapid growth and establishment of a manufacturing facility in Ohio. The project has given NAWA America the basic understanding of how the addition of VACNTs to a composite structure can affect the mechanical properties and hence point them to potential commercial applications. The project has also provided Teijin Carbon US with another potential material application for their rapid cure materials that are manufactured at the Renegade facility in Miamisburg, OH.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Isomeric effects on the reactivity of branched alkenes: An experimental and kinetic modeling study of methylbutenes

Here, a detailed experimental study of the low-to-intermediate temperature combustion of methylbutene isomers, i.e., branched C 5 alkenes, has been undertaken with multiple experimental facilities. Ignition delay times were measured at equivalence ratios 0.5–2.0, 685–1020 K and up to 45 bar condition from two rapid compression machines and showed slight deviation from an Arrhenius behavior for all three isomers, while their reactivity order differs as temperature changes. Sampled intermediates formed during the oxidation process of mixtures at 900–1150 K and 0.82 bar from a flow reactor and at 730 K and 20 bar from a rapid compression machine were analyzed using gas chromatography techniques. Trends in the formation and consumption of sampled intermediates were modeled using a kinetic model developed in this work for all three isomers. Rate of production and sensitivity analyses emphasize the role of double bond-specific reactions governing the global reactivity of these fuels. Additional studies of the addition reactions of HO 2 radicals to the double bond and to allylic radicals may improve the model performance.

2-Methyl-1-butene↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dayflow-PR: High-Resolution Streamflow Reanalysis for Puerto Rico, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a high-resolution historical streamflow reanalysis for NHDPlusV2 stream reaches across Puerto Rico (PR) spanning 1950 - 2019. The reanalysis is generated using the calibrated VIC-RAPID hydrologic modeling framework at the Hydrologic Unit Code Sub-basin (HUC08) scale, forced with sub-daily and daily meteorological forcings from Daymet. Runoff is simulated on 1- and 6-km grids, and the resulting total runoff is routed through the NHDPlusV2 river network using the RAPID routing model to produce Naturalized Streamflow Reanalysis. Where complete observational records are available over 1980 - 2019, streamflows are assimilated (substituted) and subsequently routed downstream through the river network to produce Assimilated Streamflow Reanalysis. The dataset includes streamflow outputs from eight distinct hydrologic modeling configurations along with key performanc evaluation metrics at daily and monthly scales, supporting a wide range of water resource applications. This dataset is derived to support the Non-Powered Dam Assessment, as well as 9505 Secure Water Assessment projects for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO). For further details, refer to Ghimire et al. (2023), Kao et al. (2024), and Ghimire et al. (2025).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

RapidClave® Technology Demonstrations – II Hat Stiffener

This project sought to evaluate the cost and performance of both polymeric and metallic tooling for use with the RapidClave® composite process. Teijin’s rapid cure carbon/epoxy prepreg, Q183, was selected to fabricate demonstration components, of aerospace design, which currently are fabricated via compression molding using matched steel tooling. The ability to fabricate components using this prepreg in the RapidClave®, and using low cost single sided tooling, could significantly reduce the cost of part manufacture and shorten production lead times for tooling fabrication. The component demonstration article was a “hat stiffener” geometry typically used to reinforce fuselage or wing skins of an aircraft. A rapid preforming process was demonstrated and rapid process cycle times similar to compression molding were achieved by placing the preform on hot tooling, thus avoiding the time and energy associated with typical thermal cycling. A 90% reduction in tooling cost was achieved through the use of single sided aluminum or polymeric additive tooling when compared to compression molding matched steel tooling. In addition to rapid cycle times, RapidClave® offers the ability to change out tooling in minutes such that multiple part geometries can be fabricated in one shift.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of nuclear effects on ψ(2S) production in p-Pb collisions at $ \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}}$ = 8.16 TeV

Inclusive ψ (2S) production is measured in p-Pb collisions at the centre-of-mass energy per nucleon-nucleon pair \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 8.16 TeV, using the ALICE detector at the CERN LHC. The production of ψ (2S) is studied at forward (203 < y cms < 3 . 53) and backward (-4.46 < y cms < -2.96) centre-of-mass rapidity and for transverse momentum p T < 12 GeV/ c via the decay to muon pairs. In this paper, we report the integrated as well as the y cms - and p T -differential inclusive production cross sections. Nuclear effects on ψ (2S) production are studied via the determination of the nuclear modification factor that shows a strong suppression at both forward and backward centre-of-mass rapidities. Comparisons with corresponding results for inclusive J/ ψ show a similar suppression for the two states at forward rapidity (p-going direction), but a stronger suppression for ψ (2S) at backward rapidity (Pb-going direction). As a function of p T , no clear dependence of the nuclear modification factor is found. The relative size of nuclear effects on ψ (2S) production compared to J/ ψ is also studied via the double ratio of production cross sections [ σ ψ (2S) /σ J /ψ ]pPb/[ σ ψ (2S) /σ J /ψ ] pp between p-Pb and pp collisions. The results are compared with theoretical models that include various effects related to the initial and final state of the collision system and also with previous measurements at \( \sqrt{s_{\mathrm{NN}}} \) = 5.02 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Longitudinal dependence of B and D meson nuclear modifications in heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and the LHC

It is widely acknowledged that heavy flavor probes are sensitive to the properties of the quark-gluon plasma and are often considered an important tool for the plasma tomography studies. Forward rapidity observables can provide further insight on the dynamics of the medium due to the interplay between the medium size and the differences in the production spectra of heavy quark probes. In this proceedings we present the nuclear modification factor R AA 's for B and D mesons, as well as heavy flavor leptons, in the rapidity range -4.0 < y < 4.0 obtained from relativistic Langevin equation with gluon radiation coupled with a (3+1)-dimensional viscous hydrodynamics medium background. Finally, we present comparison with experimental data at mid-rapidity as well as predictions for different rapidity ranges.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon accumulation rate peaks at 1,000-m elevation in tropical planted and regrowth forests

Tropical planted and regrowth forests (TPRFs) are one of the most low-cost components for recovering biomass-stored carbon in the tropics. Nevertheless, challenges persist in pinpointing which elevational ranges exhibit the largest carbon accumulation rate ($γ$ rapid ) due to the highly inconsistent previous assessments. This prevents the selection of optimal locations for implementing large-scale reforestation in the tropics. Here, in this study, we proposed a refined approach that used a carbon accumulation threshold (<80% of the maximum value) to quantify $γ$ rapid in TPRFs at various elevations. We find that $γ$ rapid increases with elevations from 300 to 1,000 m and declines at elevations >1,000 m. TPRFs at elevations ~1,000 m exhibit three times more $γ$ rapid than lowland TPRFs. This optimal elevation, highly dependent on background temperatures, varies slightly but significantly across different mountains. These findings provide guidelines for policymakers to determine the optimal elevations from regional to continental scales when implementing reforestation initiatives in the tropics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for the chiral magnetic effect in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 27 GeV with the STAR forward event plane detectors

A decisive experimental test of the Chiral Magnetic Effect (CME) is considered one of the major scientific goals at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider (RHIC) towards understanding the nontrivial topological fluctuations of the Quantum Chromodynamics vacuum. In heavy-ion collisions, the CME is expected to result in a charge separation phenomenon across the reaction plane, whose strength could be strongly energy dependent. The previous CME searches have been focused on top RHIC energy collisions. In this Letter, we present a low energy search for the CME in Au+Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 27 GeV. We measure elliptic flow scaled charge-dependent correlators relative to the event planes that are defined at both mid-rapidity |η| < 1.0 and at forward rapidity 2.1 < |η| < 5.1. We compare the results based on the directed flow plane ( $Ψ$ 1 ) at forward rapidity and the elliptic flow plane ( $Ψ$ 2 ) at both central and forward rapidity. The CME scenario is expected to result in a larger correlation relative to $Ψ$ 1 than to $Ψ$ 2 , while a flow driven background scenario would lead to a consistent result for both event planes. In 10-50% centrality, results using three different event planes are found to be consistent within experimental uncertainties, suggesting a flow driven background scenario dominating the measurement. We obtain an upper limit on the deviation from a flow driven background scenario at the 95% confidence level. This work opens up a possible road map towards future CME search with the high statistics data from the RHIC Beam Energy Scan Phase-II.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Root carbon interation with soil minerals is dynamic, leaving a legacy of microbially derived residues

Minerals preserve the oldest most persistent soil carbon, and mineral characteristics appear to play a critical role in the formation of soil organic matter (SOM) associations. To test the hypothesis that carbon source and soil microorganisms also influence mineral-SOM associations, we incubated permeable minerals bags in soil microcosms with and without plants, in a 13CO2 labelling chamber. Mineral bags contained quartz, ferrihydrite, kaolinite, or native soil minerals isolated via density separation. Using 13C-NMR, FTICR-MS, and lipidomics, we traced plant-derived carbon onto minerals harvested from microcosms at three plant growth stages, characterizing total carbon, 13C enrichment, and SOM chemistry. While C accumulation was rapid and mineral-dependent, the accumulated amount was not significantly affected by the presence of plant roots. However, the rhizosphere did shape the chemistry of mineral-associated SOM. Minerals incubated in the rhizosphere were associated with a more diverse array of compounds with different C functional groups (carbonyl, aromatics, carbohydrates, lipids) than minerals incubated in a bulk soil control. These diverse rhizosphere-derived compounds may represent a “transient fraction” of mineral SOM, rapidly exchanging with mineral surfaces. Our results also suggest that many of the lipids which persist on minerals are microbially-derived with a large fraction of fungal lipids.

Rhizosphere, soil organic matter, grassland, 13C-N↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Protons and Hydrides in the Catalytic Hydrogenolysis of Guaiacol at the Ruthenium Nanoparticle-water Interface

The mechanistic roles of free hydronium ions, surface hydrides, and interfacial protons during guaiacol hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) on ruthenium nanoparticles are established. As guaiacol adsorbs on Ru, it loses its strong aromaticity and undergoes a rapid H-shift from its hydroxyl to meta carbons (in relation to its hydroxyl group), leading enol and keto surface isomers to exist in chemical equilibrium. HDO occurs via a hydridic H-adatom (H*) attack to the enol, followed by a kinetically relevant C-O bond rupture step, during which water shuttles the hydroxyl proton, enabling its intramolecular attack to the methoxy, evolving a high charged [Ru(s)-(C6H5O-)…(H+)…OCH3]† transition state. The competing HYD begins with a rapid H* attack to the keto, before a second, kinetically relevant H* attack, without proton involvement. Water, despite shifting the thermodynamics towards the more polar surface keto, promotes HDO to a much greater extent than HYD, because of its dual catalytic roles—it mobilizes hydroxyl proton (Brønsted acid) to cleave the strong C-O bond, synchronizing with the Ru metal surface (base) function that stabilizes the resulting [Ru(s)-(C6H5O-)…(H+)…OCH3]† transition state, and the water layers solvate this charged transition state, further reducing its free energy. Free hydronium ions do catalyze a separate homogeneous enol-keto isomerization, but this reaction is kinetically unrelated to HDO catalysis. This mechanistic picture explains the strong effects of polar protic solvent in hydrodeoxygenation, highlighting (i) the requirements of surface hydrides and interfacial protons acting in tandem to complete a HDO turnover and (ii) the cooperative role of protic solvent and metal surface in breaking the aromaticity and stabilizing charged reactive precursors and transition states.

Shangguan, Junnan↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pd(II) and Rh(I) Catalytic Precursors for Arene Alkenylation: Comparative Evaluation of Reactivity and Mechanism Based on Experimental and Computational Studies

We combine experimental and computational investigations to compare and understand catalytic arene alkenylation using the Pd(II) and Rh(I) precursors Pd(OAc) 2 and [(η 2 -C 2 H 4 ) 2 Rh(µ-OAc)] 2 with arene, olefin and Cu(II) carboxylate at elevated temperature (> 120 °C). Under specific conditions, previous computational and experimental efforts have identified heterotrimetallic cyclic PdCu 2 (η 2 -C 2 H 4 ) 3 (μ-OPiv) 6 and [(η 2 -C 2 H 4 ) 2 Rh(µ-OPiv) 2 ] 2 (µ-Cu) (OPiv = pivalate) species as likely active catalysts for these processes. Further studies of catalyst speciation suggest a complicated equilibrium between Cu(II)-containing complexes containing one Rh or Pd atom with complexes containing two Rh or Pd atoms. At 120 °C, Rh catalysis produces styrene > 20-fold more rapidly than Pd. Also, at 120 °C, Rh is ~98% selective for styrene formation while Pd is ~82% selective. Furthermore, our studies indicate that Pd catalysis has a higher predilection toward olefin functionalization to form undesired vinyl ester, while Rh catalysis is more selective for arene/olefin coupling. However, at elevated temperatures, Pd converts vinyl ester and arene to vinyl arene, which is proposed to occur through low valent Pd(0) clusters that are formed in situ. Regardless of arene functionality, the regioselectivity for alkenylation of mono-substituted arenes with the Rh catalyst gives an approximate 2:1 meta:para ratio with minimal ortho C–H activation. In contrast, Pd selectivity is significantly influenced by arene electronics with electron-rich arenes giving an approximate 1:2:2 ortho:meta:para ratio while the electron deficient (α,α,α)-trifluorotoluene gives a 3:1 meta:para ratio with minimal ortho functionalization. Kinetic intermolecular arene ethenylation competition experiments find that Rh reacts most rapidly with benzene, and the rate of mono-substituted arene alkenylation does not correlate with arene electronics. In contrast, with Pd catalysis, electron-rich arenes react more rapidly than benzene while electron-deficient arenes react less rapidly than benzene. These experimental findings, in combination with computational results, are consistent with the arene C–H activation step for Pd catalysis involving significant η 1 -arenium character due to Pd-mediated electrophilic aromatic substitution character. In contrast, the mechanism for Rh catalysis is not sensitive to arene substituent electronics, which we propose indicates less electrophilic aromatic substitution character for the Rh-mediated arene C–H activation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗