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Oxy-Combustion System Process Optimization

The overall objective of this work is to develop a new chemical absorbent-based, high pressure, CO 2 purification system to remove the residual oxygen that currently contaminates the recovered CO 2 , and to optimize the Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (POxC) process to minimize the Cost of Electricity (COE) generated in this advanced combustion process. TDA developed and validated the performance of the oxygen removal system for CO 2 purification. In collaboration with the Advanced Power & Energy Program (APEP) of University of California, Irvine (UCI), we optimized the POxC process, including thermal management, heat integration, and power cycle optimization using process design and modeling supported with Aspen Plus® process simulations. The techno-economic analysis results indicate that the pressurized oxycombustion coal power plant with Ion-transport membrane (ITM) air separation unit (ASU) (Case 2 – 30.55%) does not show an advantage over a cryogenic ASU (Case 1 – 31.24%) while TDA’s sorption-based ASU (Case 4 - 32.61%) shows a significant advantage over the cryogenic ASU (Case 1 – 331.24%). The specific plant costs show a wide range with a low of $2544/kW for Case 11C (TDA ASU, co-sequestering the SO x , and ultra-supercritical steam cycle) to a high of $2975/kW for Case 12A (cryogenic ASU and sCO 2 cycle). In general, the ITM ASU based cases have lower specific plant costs than the corresponding cryogenic ASU based cases while the TDA ASU based cases show the lowest specific plant costs. The main reason for lowering these costs is the higher overall plant thermal efficiency which decreases the plant cost on a $ per kW basis. Next comparing the cases with different power cycle working fluid conditions in terms of temperature and pressure while all utilizing steam, similar trends as the plant costs may be observed. However, with the supercritical CO 2 (sCO 2 ) cycle, the increase in thermal efficiency of the sCO 2 cycle was not able to offset its increase in plant cost making the plant costs higher than those of the corresponding steam cycle cases. The Cost of Electricity (COE) again shows similar trends as the specific plant costs. The COE for Case 11C at $110.1/MWh is also the lowest, but among all cases that do not co-sequester the SO x , Case 12C (TDA ASU and sCO 2 cycle) has the lowest COE at $\$$117.5/MWh while the highest is for Case 8A (cryogenic ASU and supercritical steam cycle) at $130.4/MWh.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Tracking Extremes in Exascale Simulations Utilizing Exascale Platforms

There is a growing recognition in the literature that understanding variability and trends in hydrometeorological extremes relies on understanding variability and trends in the meteorological phenomena that drive these extremes. Such phenomenon-focused understanding relies critically on a robust methodology for identifying the occurrence of these phenomena in observations and model output, but a robust methodology does not currently exist. There are a variety of heuristic methods reported in the literature for identifying, and in some cases temporally tracking, meteorological phenomena. However, there have been several intercomparison projects (and resulting papers) indicating that there is a large uncertainty associated with choices in the identification methods; this is the case for extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and even tropical cyclones (TCs); and we hypothesize that this is a general issue with heuristic identification methods altogether. These studies clearly show that this identification uncertainty leads to a large, and previously under-recognized, quantitative and even qualitative uncertainty in our understanding of these phenomena. In light of these issues, we suggest that the field could be advanced by addressing two overarching questions. First, can we explicitly quantify uncertainty associated with detecting hydrometeorological phenomena? Second, can we decompose detection uncertainty into reducible and irreducible parts?

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CY2019 Annual Closure Monitoring Report for Corrective Action Unit 98, Frenchman Flat, Underground Test Area, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (January 2019–December 2019), Revision 1

Three types of monitoring are performed for CAU 98: water quality, water level, and institutional control. These are monitored to determine whether the URs remain protective of human health and the environment, and to ensure that the regulatory boundary objectives are being met. Monitoring data will be used in the future, once multiple years of data are available, to evaluate consistency with the groundwater flow and contaminant transport models because the contaminant boundaries calculated with the models are the primary basis of the UR boundaries. Six wells were sampled for water-quality monitoring in 2019. Contaminants of concern were detected only in the two source/plume wells already known to contain contamination as a result of a radionuclide migration experiment. Tritium concentrations in both of these wells, RNM-2S and UE-5n, remain above the Safe Drinking Water Act maximum contaminant level of 20,000 picocuries per liter but declined in 2019 as compared to measurements in 2018. All other contaminants of concern are below the minimum detection level plus analytical error. The water-level monitoring network includes 16 wells. Depth to water measured in 2019 is generally consistent with recent measurements for all wells. Many wells continue to exhibit a long-term downward trend in water level, though changes from 2018 to 2019 are minimal. The sharp 2016 decline in water level in Well ER-5-3-2 remains unexplained, with the lower level persisting through 2019. Rising water-level trends continue to be observed in Well ER-5-3 deep piezometer and former water supply Well WW-5A. Water supply Well WW-5B experienced a rise in water level as a result of an absence of pumping in the first part of the year (due to a mechanical problem), whereas water levels declined in WW-4 and WW-4A in response to greater pumping in 2019. Institutional control monitoring confirmed the URs are recorded in U.S. Department of Energy and U.S. Air Force land management systems, and that no activities within Frenchman Flat basin are occurring that could potentially affect the contaminant boundaries. Survey of groundwater resources in basins surrounding Frenchman Flat similarly identify no current or pending development that would indicate the need to increase monitoring activities or would otherwise cause concern for the closure decision. The URs continue to prevent exposure of the public, workers, and the environment to contaminants of concern by preventing use of potentially contaminated groundwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

H1 2021 Solar Industry Update

Each quarter, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) conducts the Quarterly Solar Industry Update, a presentation of technical trends within the solar industry, to the solar office staff. Each presentation focuses on global and U.S. supply and demand, module and system price, investment trends and business models, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Advancing Solar Innovation for Low and Moderate-Income Households (Final Technical Report)

The overarching goal of this project was to deepen the understanding of the social and economic aspects of solar adoption, with a specific eye towards any pathways or barriers that could be identified that directly impact low and moderate-income households. Specific objectives included (1) identifying and assessing significant non-economic barriers that complicate the ability of LMI households to adopt and benefit from solar, even under scenarios with low economic barriers; (2) assessing the differential ability of groups to benefit from solar adoption based on their ability to invest in different solar innovations; (3) explaining why some LMI communities nonetheless experience significantly higher rates of solar adoption and benefit than others; (4) developing a methodological model for generating data addressing key issues to the project; and (5) designing and developing an interactive web portal that aggregates existing datasets, provides researchers trend analysis capabilities, standardizes project protocols for other states and communities; provides the opportunities for researchers using the same protocol in other communities to upload their results; and engages with the general public by providing them the ability to upload their own perspectives and stories of solar technology adoption. Through a common framework for conducting semi-structured field interviews. In partnership with cooperative extension services, in conjunction with survey research and the aggregation of existing solar adoption datasets, this study has identified that currently ,there is a strong values alignment and knowledge access challenge that continues to affect solar adoption. Participants in this study – many of whom are either low or moderate-income and/or live in underserved rural communities do not believe solar is an option where they live or believe solar is appropriate for their lifestyle. This perception challenge is further exacerbated by the absolute dearth of adopters in most communities and a total lack of local marketing for solar energy. What marketing that does exist is geared towards audiences other than those in the participant's community, reinforcing a perception that 22% of survey respondents (n = 1,551) have: that solar energy is not meant for them and their community. Overcoming these serious human challenges pertaining to knowledge and marketing are critical to reducing the customer acquisition costs incurred amongst LMI communities and especially those in rural America where the opportunities solar provides to increase local energy resilience, security, all while engaging in personal stewardship of the planet could align with local values. Community-Based Social Marketing, built in partnership with community leaders and geared towards meeting local visions of ideal life, is a near term opportunity to bridge the gap between local priorities and national market and policy imperatives for solar while moving towards the administration's goals for renewable energy as part of a just and equitable decarbonization program. The tools and methods developed for this study can serve as a template for identifying other specific local challenges for solar adoption in other state, and provide the opportunity for a common data framework for understanding system-wide trends and barriers to achieving uptake of residential solar in communities that may, ultimately, benefit the most from the technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Mechanical testing of PH13-8Mo H950 Steel for Xue-Wierzbicki Fracture Criterion Determination at 20° C and -40° C

Mechanical testing was conducted to collect the data needed to build a Xue-Wierzbicki (XW) fracture model for PH13-8 Mo H950 stainless steel (PH 13-8 SS). This model is intended for use in structural analysis of this material between room temperature and -40° C. Tests were performed on four different specimen geometries such that a range of stress states were characterized at room temperature and -40° C. Tensile tests on R5 tensile specimens were also performed to assess material anisotropy. Fracture toughness test were also conducted. The fracture toughness of this material at -40° C was 68% of the room-temperature value. Material strength generally increased with decreasing temperature while the opposite trend was observed for ductility. These trends were most pronounced for specimens with the largest stress triaxialities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Disaggregating Future Retail Electricity Rate Growth [Slides]

Recent Berkeley Lab research found that modest retail rate increases over the past 10 years were mostly driven by large increases in capital expenditures (CapEx) that were offset in part by substantial wholesale price reductions. Decision-makers are increasingly concerned about the potential future rate impacts of a number of policies and industry trends that support rapid decarbonization, electrification, and grid modernization. Using historical FERC Form 1 data and the existing literature on policies and industry trends that are likely to affect utility-incurred costs and retail sales, Berkeley Lab researchers developed ranges of forecasted growth rates for cost-related rate drivers (i.e., fuel and purchased power; transmission, distribution, generation, and other categories of both non-fuel operations & maintenance and CapEx) and non-cost related rate drivers (i.e., retail sales, peak demand, and customers). These were then used as inputs to a pro-forma utility financial model (FINDER) that estimated the growth in retail electric rates between 2020 and 2030 for a prototypical vertically-integrated investor-owned utility in the United States. The analysis produced the following results: 1. Assuming average growth rates in all rate drivers, future retail rate growth is driven by sizable increases in all CapEx costs, where fuel and purchased power costs are replaced by generation CapEx as the largest rate component between 2020 and 2030. 2. Growth in sales/peak demand/customers, generation CapEx costs, and fuel and purchased power (FPP) costs, in isolation, produce the most uncertainty in rate growth. Specifically, a 1% increase in the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of retail sales, coincident peak demand (CP), and customers (Sales-CP-Cust) results in a 0.88-0.93% decrease in the CAGR of rates, in isolation. However, a 1% increase in the CAGR of generation CapEx budgets results in a 0.07-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, while a 1% increase in the CAGR of FPP costs causes a 0.10-0.14% increase in the CAGR of rates, all else being equal. 3. Taking into account the correlation and variability of the growth in all rate drivers jointly, generation CapEx is expected to be both the largest and most uncertain rate component by 2030 (20-25% share of the retail rate). Transmission and distribution CapEx, along with fuel and purchased power costs are each expected to comprise between 12% and 17% of retail rates.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Guide to Updating Interconnection Rules and Incorporating IEEE Standard 1547

The intent of this paper is to support local authorities in adopting the most current technical requirements for interconnecting distributed energy resources (DERs) to the electric distribution system as specified in the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Standard for Interconnection and Interoperability of Distributed Energy Resources with Associated Electric Power Systems Interfaces (IEEE Std 1547-2018). To create interconnection rules that successfully address policy goals, market trends, and technical requirements, state regulators need to be well informed of DER integration considerations. Interconnection processes and technical issues often overlap; the two are not easily segregated, and they are often considered and evaluated concurrently within the context of interconnection rulemaking. Accordingly, this paper addresses both the technical issues and related process considerations. A lack of uniform and transparent procedures for addressing interconnection rule changes can result in implementation issues or inefficiencies, such as unclear, lengthy, and complicated interconnection rules that can increase distributed generation "soft costs" (i.e., non-hardware costs). This can further delay the deployment of DERs and jeopardize time-constrained national and state policy goals, such as renewable energy targets, or limit participation in emerging techno-economic trends. Additionally, misconstructed interconnection rules are at risk of becoming mired in stakeholder conflicts. This guide addresses the concerns of electric service regulators from both the process and technical standpoints by presenting a structured, step-by-step approach to developing and updating existing interconnection rules. In this document, the process of developing and updating interconnection rules is subdivided into three steps: (1) determining the context (stakeholders and major drivers); (2) developing the rule, including updating technical requirements; and (3) maintaining and revising the rule over time.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Charting a Path for Research and Development of Reliability and Resilience in South Asia's Power Sector

The power sector in South Asia faces several trends with the potential to impact its reliability and resilience. Rapidly increasing demand, coupled with an increasing reliance on variable renewable resources and the circular linkages with climate change points to an increasing need to understand the extent of climate impacts on both the electricity load and the electricity generation. These larger shifts are also coupled with opportunities near the grid edge that could have a large impact on system planning and operations, such as electrification of the transport sector, increased reliance on buildings to serve a broader set of loads and be flexible resources for utilities, more efficient use of industrial and agricultural loads, and growth in distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar and batteries. It is critical that as this transformation takes place that expectations for reliability and resilience of the grid continue to increase in the region. The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE), composed of USAID, the US Department of Energy, and three national laboratories, has been tasked with providing an overview of the research and development resources necessary to understand the upcoming challenges for the power system as it pertains to reliability and resilience. This discussion paper identifies some of the key trends and connections that are important for power sector reliability and resilience and provides a starting point for eliciting feedback from power sector stakeholders about their experiences and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Conceptual Model Update of Mercury Sources and Flux at Y-12 and Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge,Tennessee

The interactions between the key processes that control the fate and transport of mercury (Hg) in the sediments, groundwater, and stream water within the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are complex, and many aspects are not well understood. In contaminated environments such as Y-12, conceptual models are frequently developed to aid in visualizing and understanding the dynamic nature of the hydrologic, geochemical, and physical environment. These conceptual models integrate data in an internally consistent manner to understand processes that control the fate and transport of contaminants. Over the past few decades of environmental investigation at Y-12, a number of conceptual models have been developed to identify and define various technical processes at various scales. The main purpose of the activities described in this report is to update the 2011 conceptual model for Upper East Fork Poplar Creek using the most recent Hg concentration and flux data and informed scientific interpretation. Emphasis was placed on improving the previous model by implementing a more detailed spatial and temporal approach to visualize transport pathways in the watershed and trends in flux and concentration over time, and to compare baseflow and stormflow system dynamics. Detailed descriptions of historical and current Hg sources and transport pathways are also provided for the east and west ends of the facility. This conceptual model will allow the US Department of Energy to evaluate past and present remedial activities and provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing remedial responses in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Twenty years ago, Hg flux from Outfall (OF) 200 at the headwaters of East Fork Poplar Creek represented approximately 20% of the overall flux leaving Y-12. By the time of the 2011 conceptual model report, that percentage had increased to 70%–80%. Flux estimates compiled for this report using data from 2009 to 2018 show that OF200 accounted for roughly 60% of the flux leaving Y-12. The relative role of the four storm drain conduits to OF200 appeared similar to 2011, with OF163 being the greatest contributor to downstream flux. An increase in Hg concentrations and flux occurred throughout and downstream of west end storm drains in 2011 in response to a storm drain cleanout. Leading up to the 2011 storm drain cleanout, annual baseflow flux was higher at OF200A6 than at Station 17. From 2011 to 2018, the trend reversed with concentrations and flux being higher at Station 17 than at OF200A6. A spike in concentrations occurred in July 2018, potentially due to a one-time influx of Hg that occurred during COLEX decontamination and decommissioning activities at Y-12. This report includes recommendations for improving our conceptual understanding of Hg sources, transport pathways, and flux at Y-12. Important recommendations include further evaluation of transport pathways, concurrent measurement of Hg concentration and flux under baseflow and stormflow conditions at multiple sites, and research to understand the connections among periphyton and methylmercury concentration, bioavailability, and bioaccumulation. Ongoing facility decontamination and decommissioning efforts, site characterization, remedial actions, and research are facilitating the collection of new Hg data at Y-12. The conceptual model update provided herein takes advantage of the extensive recent Hg sampling to provide an updated assessment of Hg mass balance and support a refined understanding of Hg behavior at or near Y-12. This assessment should assist in future environmental management decisions and in mitigating the impacts of Hg on the surrounding environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Big Adaptive Rotor Phase I (Final Report)

The Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) project was initiate by DOE in 2018 with the goal of identifying novel technologies that can enable large (>100m) blades for low specific power (SP) turbines. Five distinct tasks were completed to achieve this goal: 1. Assess trends, impacts, and value of low-SP turbines, 2. Wind turbine blade cost reduction roadmap study, 3. Research and Development (R&D) opportunity screening, 4. Detailed design and analysis, and 5. Low-cost carbon fiber. These tasks were completed by the national lab team consisting of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL). The objective of Task 1 was to assess the historical trends of low-SP of onshore deployments, and to assess the impact and value of low-SP turbines. Analysis under this task showed that there is significant value for low-SP turbines, especially in markets where there is a higher saturation of wind energy on the grid. This has to do with the fact that low-SP turbines have increased capacity factors, and can contribute more reliable energy to the grid, even in lower wind conditions. This bodes well as higher renewable scenarios are likely in the coming years. Task 2 was a detailed analysis on the logistical challenges of deploying very large (>100m) onshore blade. This work was completed by experts at DNV-GL. The report looked at various ways to get around the current transportation constraints which are estimated to be around 75m in length. The report concluded that there are viable solutions to this issue including: segmented blades (which the industry is already pursuing), lighter than air (LTA) transportation, on-site manufacturing, and controlled bending of blades on rail. The final option was recommended for further analysis and study by DOE and the national labs because keeping a single piece blade reduces manufacturing and operations and maintenance (O&M) costs. Task 3 focused on identifying novel concepts that are capable of enabling a cost effective 5MW 206m rotor for onshore deployment. The findings from the first two tasks were considered in the analysis, in that the concepts identified must be able to overcome the transportation logistics challenges. Around 20 concepts were identified and evaluated by experts within the industry. Additionally, science and engineering challenges were identified for each concept. Based on these evaluations six concepts were deemed the most impactful and were selected for further analysis in Task 4. The concepts were: highly flexible rail transportable blades, downwind rotors, distributed aerodynamic control (DAC) devices, inflatable blade, bi-wing blade, and 4/5 bladed rotors. Task 4 conducted detailed design, optimization, and analysis on the selected BAR concepts. A modeling gaps analysis was conducted, and modeling improvements were implemented that allowed for the study and design of the novel concepts. The BAR team established a set of baseline designs by which to compare the selected designs through a technoeconomic analysis. It was found that the highly flexible rail transportable blade, the downwind rotor, and the DAC devices have the most promise to deliver the BAR targets. A Phase II for BAR has been proposed to further mature these concepts and address the open science and engineering challenges identified in Task 3. Task 5 conducted research on optimized carbon fiber materials that were used throughout the BAR Phase I project. Overall, the BAR project has identified low-SP turbines as important to continued LCOE reductions for onshore turbines. Furthermore, the project has identified viable solutions to the technical and logistical challenges to realizing these goals. The most promising technologies that were identified in Phase I of the project will be further matured and de-risked in Phase II of the BAR project.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Application of electron beam technology to decompose persistent emerging drinking water contaminants: poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and 1,4-Dioxane

Poly- and perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) and 1,4-dioxane are persistent emerging contaminants that are currently under consideration for federal and state-specific regulations in drinking water. Both PFAS and 1,4-dioxane are highly resistant to degradation and are not effectively removed by conventional drinking water treatment systems. Results from the Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule 3 survey showed that >540 sites across the nation are contaminated with both PFAS and 1,4-dioxane. Hence, there is a need to identify technologies that can effectively remove both these contaminants. Water treatment via electron beam (e-beam) has been proven effective at treating a wide range of contaminants, including perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorooctanoate (PFOA), polychlorinated biphenyls, and trichloroethylene. While the e-beam process is often considered similar to advanced oxidation processes (AOPs), e-beam technology is unique in that it produces both highly oxidizing and reducing species at the same time. The specific objectives of this study were to: (i) determine the effectiveness of 9 MeV electrons provided by the Fermilab’s Accelerator Application Development and Demonstration (A2D2) tool to decompose PFAS and 1,4-dioxane; (ii) assess the formation of byproducts during water treatment; (iii) apply the optimized treatment to field groundwater samples contaminated with PFAS and 1,4-dioxane, and (iv) assess the energy demands for the treatment of these contaminants using e-beam. Results from this study showed that e-beam is effective in treating both 1,4-dioxane and PFAS. Complete degradation of 1,4-dioxane was observed at a dose of 5 kGy for an initial concentration of up to 1 ppm without the need for any sample modification. The electrical energy per order (EEo) for treatment of 1,4-dioxane ranged from 0.46 to 0.72 kWh/m 3 /order and was comparable and even lower, in some cases, than other AOP technologies. Alkaline conditions (pH 13) and low dissolved oxygen concentration (2 mg/L) highly favored the treatment of PFAS by e-beam. Greater than 90% removal of PFOA and PFOS from an initial concentration of 100 to 500 ppb was achieved at a dose of 250 kGy and 500 kGy, respectively, under optimized conditions. The degradation efficiency was not significantly changed when treating other PFAS of fluorinated carbon chain length of 5 to 7 individually at 250 kGy with a removal ranging from 85¬–99% for different compounds. Short chain PFAS (perfluorobutanoate: PFBA and perfluorobutane sulfonate: PFBS) did not degrade under the same conditions at 250 kGy, but 70 to 99% degradation was observed at a higher dose of 1000 kGy. Short chain PFAS (perfluorohexanoate: PFHxA (C5) and perfluoroheptanoate: PFHpA (C6)) were detected after treatment of PFOA, but not after PFOS treatment. Inability to close the mass balance through targeted analysis suggests the presence of other intermediates not detectable by available analytical methods. When treating PFAS mixture containing ten compounds at equimolar concentration of 0.05 µM each, preferential degradation of polyfluorinated compound (6:2 fluorotelomer sulfonate or 6:2 FTS) followed by C8 and C7 compounds was observed as a function of increasing e-beam dose. About 30% degradation of ΣPFAS was observed at 250 kGy and no further removal was observed up to a dose of 1000 kGy. C4 to C6 PFASs showed no degradation, while C3 PFAS (PFBS) showed an increase in concentration by 34% at 1000 kGy due to formation from the breakdown of other long chain PFAS. These results suggested that (a) the reaction kinetics is likely different for different PFAS based on chain length, functional group, and the degree of fluorination of the carbon chain, and (b) there may be intermediates generated from the degradation of 6:2 FTS and C7/C8 compounds that can potentially scavenge hydrated electrons needed for reaction with the untreated PFAS molecules. Treatment of three PFAS-contaminated groundwater samples from two US states showed similar trends as observed in the treatment of equimolar PFAS mixtures. Up to 71% removal of ΣPFAS was achieved in real groundwater samples at 750 kGy and data trend suggested that higher degradation is feasible if higher doses (>1MGy) are applied to treat field samples to overcome matrix effects and competing species. Calculated EEo for PFAS ranged from as low as ~48 to 1081 kWh/m 3 /order depending on the type of PFAS treated. These values are comparable and even lower, in some cases, than other destructive technologies employed for PFAS treatment such as ultrasound, plasma, and photochemical treatment. The results from this study indicate e-beam is a promising approach under favorable conditions and should be explored further as an end-of-train treatment option for PFAS destruction.

1,4-Dioxane↗

COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: An Initial Analysis of the Data

During the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, major case reporting outlets quickly coalesced around two or three primary vendors. Johns Hopkins University and The New York Times were among the more prominent, and all were of great value to the nation, particularly during the uncertain early stages of the pandemic. They primarily focused on three major attributes: number of new cases, deaths, and recovery. Recognizing that many states were reporting very detailed data sets (e.g., hospital beds) at a county level or finer, the ORNL Pandemic Modeling team embarked on a major data curation effort from March to June 2020 for the purpose of capturing this wealth of detailed data. The challenge of curating this data was daunting. The number of attributes reported by the states grew on almost on a weekly basis. States were routinely shifting their web tool strategies away from easily parsable HTML-based formatting to new Tableau and ArcGIS content. This growth in the sheer number of attributes, combined with the unpredictable shifts in data format, meant an aggressive and agile combination of automated scripting and manual scraping was required to capture new daily streams. Further, the team had to scale up staff and widen its approach for capture and storage. As a result, the team collected more than 11 million data points. Following the close of this data collection effort on June 30 th , 2020, the team embarked on a major effort to appraise what had been collected, including an inventory list, spatial completeness, temporal completeness, scale and geographic characteristics, and a determination. A report on this matter was submitted on September 15 th , 2020, titled “DOE COVID-19 Data Curation Effort: Overview of Data Collection Coverage”. Over 2000 unique attributes had been netted over a wide range of spatial scales, including state, county, zip codes, health regions, and census blocks. Over 11 million individual data points were collected across these attributes, and spatial coverage (in total) included all 50 states and multiple territories. What became apparent in the process is that in the absence of any data standards, many states reported a wide variety of unique attributes that were not always compatible with attributes reported in other states. As time continued, states began adding new attributes and offering finer grain detail in some older attributes. This meant that not all data streams existed for the entire time period; in fact, the number tended to increase dramatically towards the end. Often, states would begin an attribute series and then stop altogether. These highly variable and uncertain conditions illuminated the need for harmonization approaches that would reconcile and conflate changing attribute names and detail over time. For example, grouping racial data reported as either Black or African American, depending on the state, into a single harmonized attribute. These choices would make a within-state analysis possible during the time period and lead to potential between-state analytics later on. This was almost entirely a manual decision process, requiring some subjective decision-making at times, to prevent a fragmented, short-lived collection of time series fragments that would offer few insights into trends, patterns, and correlates. This report imports harmonized data for state and county into the World Spatio-Temporal Analytics and Mapping Project (WSTAMP). WSTAMP is a major space-time analysis and visualization tool developed at ORNL for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency specifically for this kind of exploratory analysis. WSTAMP offers a rich analytical and graphical environment consisting of a wide range of analytics. These include time series plots, statistical summaries, data mining techniques, trend and pattern detection, and hypothesis generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

HFTS-1 Natural Joint Data and Engineering Summary

This report provides an analysis of engineering and geologic data collected from the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site #1 (HTSF-1) project in the southern Midland Basin, Reagan County, Texas. The site is being studied as part of the Science-informed Machine Learning for Accelerating Real-Time Decisions in Subsurface Applications (SMART) Initiative at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The data collected is intended to provide a basis of understanding of the site and to construct simulation models. This report provides a summary analysis of the engineering and geologic data collected from the project to provide a basis of understanding of the site and to construct simulation models. The report examines various possible correlations in engineering properties based on natural fracture data from the program, which consisted of 11 horizontal wells, one vertical well, and one slant well. The horizontal wells are in two horizons: 1) Upper and 2) Middle Wolfcamp formations. Program data include: fracture frequency and fracture orientation data from four core runs in a slant well; fracture spacing and orientation from a vertical pilot well; laboratory triaxial testing and mineralogical determinations; and porosity results from magnetic resonance analyses from various wells, together with observations based on the data collection. In addition, available references were reviewed on the site for additional insights. As the focus of the report is on the natural system, hydraulic fracture data from the site were not examined in detail in this report. Data variability is the chief observation in examination of the database. Fracture frequency in the slant well can range from sections with values as high as five fractures per ft to sections up to 100+ ft in length with no natural observed fractures. Fracture spacing across is typically less than 10 ft, but can range up to hundreds of feet. Apparent fracturing shows the trends in two predominate orientations, E-SW and WNW-ESE, but minor variations exist. The rock units vary across the site from siliceous mudstones to calcareous mudstones, showing a general layering with depth. The laboratory properties such as strength and modulus show no apparent trend with depth, but appear to correlate with rock mineralogy with high strength and modulus values where calcium content is high. In addition, an attempt to examine variability and mineralogy on a larger scale was made using a color-coded system based on gamma ray measurements. A staged colored approach was adopted, presuming that lower gamma ray values indicate higher value of calcium content (blue scale) and that higher gamma ray values indicate higher clay mineral content (orange scale). As provided in report appendices, the system correlated well with visual examination of the slant core and the petrofabric analyses of the vertical pilot well. The results showed large variability in mineral content along the horizontal plane across the site. The change in mineral content was also rapid, on a scale less than that of the average hydraulic fracture stage length of about 180 ft.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Benthic Kinetic Energy in an Earth System Model and Observations

The benthic layer of the ocean is closely correlated with every upper layer above it. Close analysis of benthic layer stress can yield an accurate depiction of the state of the ocean, as well as the atmosphere above it. Through the use of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we took a look at how these features changed over time in a simulation spanning the historical period from 1958 to 2018 in the Arctic Ocean north of 60° N. Making use of E3SM’s regional refinement capability to place higher resolution in regions of interest, the E3SM-Arctic configuration has ~10 km resolution in the ocean and sea ice components in this region, coarsening up to ~60 km outside of the Arctic (Veneziani et al. 2022). In particular, we narrowly focused on the benthic kinetic energy levels, and how trends changed over time. To validate the fidelity of the E3SM model, we compared model current speed outputs over a 369-day period in the Bering Strait to actual recorded observations during this time period. Our analysis of the benthic kinetic energy mean, standard deviation, and trend throughout this time period can be used to characterize the effects of environmental impacts in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenge Problem 1: Preliminary Model Development and Assessment of Flexible Heat Transfer Modeling Approaches

This report presents the modeling progress of a university consortium studying flexible modeling for turbulent heat transfer. In the context of advanced nuclear reactor design, where challenges include non-unity Prandtl fluids, free and mixed convection, and transitional flow, computational fluid dynamics methods are underutilized due to low confidence in modeling approaches and high computational cost. This report evaluates the performance of engineering CFD models in diabatic, buoyant turbulent flow. It finds that all turbulence models including several variants of the k-ε and k-ω models struggle to predict accurate turbulent momentum and heat transfer in such flows. The Nusselt numbers have been compared between the models and the DNS data, where calculations have been performed for each case and trends have shown a good agreement between DNS estimated Nusselt numbers and available correlations as well as experimental data. A novel DNS correlation for high Pr cases as they are transitioning from mixed convection to natural convection has been proposed. While Nusselt number errors relative to DNS range from 20% to 50%, the models capture similar trends to DNS with respect to Nusselt suppression and amplification under varying levels of buoyancy effect. This report also highlights model form error as a significant contributor to CFD predictions and proposes a framework for quantifying model error and improving confidence in CFD calculations. To improve the predictive capability of engineering CFD models, data-driven approaches for turbulence models are investigated. Theoretical frameworks based on the invariant tensor / vector basis neural networks for prediction of Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes are employed. The models are developed using direct numerical simulations data for forced convection flows of different fluids in vertical planar channel domain. The framework is implemented in spectral element solvers Nek5000 / nekRS and has shown a potential for future development and consideration of mixed convection flows.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗