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At least 1,189 records · Page 66
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NASA NTRS2001

A Finite-Volume "Shaving" Method for Interfacing NASA/DAO''s Physical Space Statistical Analysis System to the Finite-Volume GCM with a Lagrangian Control-Volume Vertical Coordinate

Toward the development of a finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS), a consistent finite-volume methodology is developed for interfacing the NASA/DAO's Physical Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) to the joint NASA/NCAR finite volume CCM3 (fvCCM3). To take advantage of the Lagrangian control-volume vertical coordinate of the fvCCM3, a novel "shaving" method is applied to the lowest few model layers to reflect the surface pressure changes as implied by the final analysis. Analysis increments (from PSAS) to the upper air variables are then consistently put onto the Lagrangian layers as adjustments to the volume-mean quantities during the analysis cycle. This approach is demonstrated to be superior to the conventional method of using independently computed "tendency terms" for surface pressure and upper air prognostic variables.

Lin, Shian-Jiann↗
NASA NTRS2001

Advanced Statistical and Data Analysis Tools for Astrophysics

The goal of the project is to obtain, derive, and develop statistical and data analysis tools that would be of use in the analyses of high-resolution, high-sensitivity data that are becoming available with new instruments. This is envisioned as a cross-disciplinary effort with a number of collaborators.

Kashyap, V.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Statistical Mining of Predictability of Seasonal Precipitation over the United States

Results from a new ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) prediction model yield a remarkable (10-20%) increases in baseline prediction skills for seasonal precipitation over the US for all seasons, compared to traditional statistical predictions. While the tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, contributes to the largest share of potential predictability in the southern tier States during boreal winter, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic are responsible for enhanced predictability in the northern Great Plains, Midwest and the southwest US during boreal summer. Most importantly, ECC significantly reduces the spring predictability barrier over the conterminous US, thereby raising the skill bar for dynamical predictions.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Statistical Short-Range Forecast Guidance for Cloud Ceilings Over the Shuttle Landing Facility

This report describes the results of the AMU's Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task. The cloud ceiling forecast over the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF) is a critical element in determining whether a Shuttle should land. Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) forecasters find that ceilings at the SLF are challenging to forecast. The AMU was tasked to develop ceiling forecast equations to minimize the challenge. Studies in the literature that showed success in improving short-term forecasts of ceiling provided the basis for the AMU task. A 20-year record of cool-season hourly surface observations from stations in east-central Florida was used for the equation development. Two methods were used: an observations-based (OBS) method that incorporated data from all stations, and a persistence climatology (PCL) method used as the benchmark. Equations were developed for 1-, 2-, and 3-hour lead times at each hour of the day. A comparison between the two methods indicated that the OBS equations performed well and produced an improvement over the PCL equations. Therefore, the conclusion of the AMU study is that OBS equations produced more accurate forecasts than the PCL equations, and can be used in operations. They provide another tool with which to make the ceiling forecasts that are critical to safe Shuttle landings at KSC.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type 1 censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Krantz, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Software for Statistical Analysis of Weibull Distributions with Application to Gear Fatigue Data: User Manual with Verification

The Weibull distribution has been widely adopted for the statistical description and inference of fatigue data. This document provides user instructions, examples, and verification for software to analyze gear fatigue test data. The software was developed presuming the data are adequately modeled using a two-parameter Weibull distribution. The calculations are based on likelihood methods, and the approach taken is valid for data that include type I censoring. The software was verified by reproducing results published by others.

Kranz, Timothy L.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Statistical Mechanics of Ideal Homogeneous Turbulence

Plasmas, such as those found in the space environment or in plasma confinement devices, are often modeled as electrically conducting fluids. When fluids and plasmas are energetically stirred, regions of highly nonlinear, chaotic behavior known as turbulence arise. Understanding the fundamental nature of turbulence is a long-standing theoretical challenge. The present work describes a statistical theory concerning a certain class of nonlinear, finite dimensional, dynamical models of turbulence. These models arise when the partial differential equations describing incompressible, ideal (i.e., nondissipative) homogeneous fluid and magnetofluid (i.e., plasma) turbulence are Fourier transformed into a very large set of ordinary differential equations. These equations define a divergenceless flow in a high-dimensional phase space, which allows for the existence of a Liouville theorem, guaranteeing a distribution function based on constants of the motion (integral invariants). The novelty of these particular dynamical systems is that there are integral invariants other than the energy, and that some of these invariants behave like pseudoscalars under two of the discrete symmetry transformations of physics, parity, and charge conjugation. In this work the 'rugged invariants' of ideal homogeneous turbulence are shown to be the only significant scalar and pseudoscalar invariants. The discovery that pseudoscalar invariants cause symmetries of the original equations to be dynamically broken and induce a nonergodic structure on the associated phase space is the primary result presented here. Applicability of this result to dissipative turbulence is also discussed.

Shebalin, John V.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Autotasked Performance in the NAS Workload: A Statistical Analysis

A statistical analysis of the workload performance of a production quality FORTRAN code for five different Cray Y-MP hardware and system software configurations is performed. The analysis was based on an experimental procedure that was designed to minimize correlations between the number of requested CPUs and the time of day the runs were initiated. Observed autotasking over heads were significantly larger for the set of jobs that requested the maximum number of CPUs. Speedups for UNICOS 6 releases show consistent wall clock speedups in the workload of around 2. which is quite good. The observed speed ups were very similar for the set of jobs that requested 8 CPUs and the set that requested 4 CPUs. The original NAS algorithm for determining charges to the user discourages autotasking in the workload. A new charging algorithm to be applied to jobs run in the NQS multitasking queues also discourages NAS users from using auto tasking. The new algorithm favors jobs requesting 8 CPUs over those that request less, although the jobs requesting 8 CPUs experienced significantly higher over head and presumably degraded system throughput. A charging algorithm is presented that has the following desirable characteristics when applied to the data: higher overhead jobs requesting 8 CPUs are penalized when compared to moderate overhead jobs requesting 4 CPUs, thereby providing a charging incentive to NAS users to use autotasking in a manner that provides them with significantly improved turnaround while also maintaining system throughput.

Carter, R. L.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Methods for Rapid Aerothermal Analysis and Design Technology

The cost and safety goals for NASA's next generation of reusable launch vehicle (RLV) will require that rapid high-fidelity aerothermodynamic design tools be used early in the design cycle. To meet these requirements, it is desirable to establish statistical models that quantify and improve the accuracy, extend the applicability, and enable combined analyses using existing prediction tools. The research work was focused on establishing the suitable mathematical/statistical models for these purposes. It is anticipated that the resulting models can be incorporated into a software tool to provide rapid, variable-fidelity, aerothermal environments to predict heating along an arbitrary trajectory. This work will support development of an integrated design tool to perform automated thermal protection system (TPS) sizing and material selection.

Morgan, Carolyn↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Properties of Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Power Law Spectra Information

A simple power law model consisting of a single spectral index, a is believed to be an adequate description of the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton flux at energies below 10(exp 13) eV, with a transition at the knee energy, E(sub k), to a steeper spectral index alpha(sub 2) greater than alpha(sub 1) above E(sub k). The Maximum likelihood (ML) procedure was developed for estimating the single parameter alpha(sub 1) of a simple power law energy spectrum and generalized to estimate the three spectral parameters of the broken power law energy spectrum from simulated detector responses and real cosmic-ray data. The statistical properties of the ML estimator were investigated and shown to have the three desirable properties: (P1) consistency (asymptotically unbiased). (P2) efficiency asymptotically attains the Cramer-Rao minimum variance bound), and (P3) asymptotically normally distributed, under a wide range of potential detector response functions. Attainment of these properties necessarily implies that the ML estimation procedure provides the best unbiased estimator possible. While simulation studies can easily determine if a given estimation procedure provides an unbiased estimate of the spectra information, and whether or not the estimator is approximately normally distributed, attainment of the Cramer-Rao bound (CRB) can only he ascertained by calculating the CRB for an assumed energy spectrum-detector response function combination, which can be quite formidable in practice. However. the effort in calculating the CRB is very worthwhile because it provides the necessary means to compare the efficiency of competing estimation techniques and, furthermore, provides a stopping rule in the search for the best unbiased estimator. Consequently, the CRB for both the simple and broken power law energy spectra are derived herein and the conditions under which they are attained in practice are investigated. The ML technique is then extended to estimate spectra information from an arbitrary number of astrophysics data sets produced by vastly different science instruments. This theory and its successful implementation will facilitate the interpretation of spectral information from multiple astrophysics missions and thereby permit the derivation of superior spectral parameter estimates based on the combination of data sets.

Howell, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Statistical Short-Range Guidance for Peak Wind Speed Forecasts on Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station: Phase I Results

This report describes the results of the ANU's (Applied Meteorology Unit) Short-Range Statistical Forecasting task for peak winds. The peak wind speeds are an important forecast element for the Space Shuttle and Expendable Launch Vehicle programs. The Keith Weather Squadron and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group indicate that peak winds are challenging to forecast. The Applied Meteorology Unit was tasked to develop tools that aid in short-range forecasts of peak winds at tower sites of operational interest. A 7 year record of wind tower data was used in the analysis. Hourly and directional climatologies by tower and month were developed to determine the seasonal behavior of the average and peak winds. In all climatologies, the average and peak wind speeds were highly variable in time. This indicated that the development of a peak wind forecasting tool would be difficult. Probability density functions (PDF) of peak wind speed were calculated to determine the distribution of peak speed with average speed. These provide forecasters with a means of determining the probability of meeting or exceeding a certain peak wind given an observed or forecast average speed. The climatologies and PDFs provide tools with which to make peak wind forecasts that are critical to safe operations.

Lambert, Winifred C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Statistical Comparison of PSC Model Simulations and POAM Observations

A better knowledge of PSC composition and formation mechanisms is important to better understand and predict stratospheric ozone depletion. Several past studies have attempted to compare modeling results with satellite observations. These comparisons have concentrated on case studies. In this paper we adopt a statistical approach. POAM PSC observations from several Arctic winters are categorized into Type Ia and Ib PSCs using a technique based on Strawa et al. The discrimination technique has been modified to employ the wavelengths dependence of the extinction signal at all wavelengths rather than only at 603 and 10 18 nm. Winter-long simulations for the 1999-2000 Arctic winter have been made using the IMPACT model. These simulations have been constrained by aircraft observations made during the SOLVE/THESEO 2000 campaign. A complete set of winter-long simulations was run for several different microphysical and PSC formation scenarios. The simulations give us perfect knowledge of PSC type (Ia, Ib, or II), composition, especially condensed phase HNO3 which is important for denitrification, and condensed phase H2O. Comparisons are made between the simulation and observation of PSC extinction at 1018 rim versus wavelength dependence, winter-long percentages of Ia and Ib occurrence, and temporal and altitude trends of the PSCs. These comparisons allow us to comment on how realistic some modeling scenarios are.

Strawa, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Statistical Analysis of Laser Ablated Ba(Sub 0.50)Sr(Sub 0.50)TiO(Sub 3)/LaAlO(Sub 3) Films for Microwave Applications

The NASA Glenn Research Center is constructing a 616 element scanning phased array antenna using thin film Ba(sub x)Sr(sub 1-x)TiO(sub 3) based phase shifters. A critical milestone is the production of 616 identical phase shifters at 19 GHz with [asymptotically equal to]4 dB insertion loss and at least 337.5 deg phase shift with 3 percent bandwidth. It is well known that there is a direct relationship between dielectric tuning and loss due to the Kramers-Kronig relationship and that film crystallinity and strain, affected by the substrate template, play an important role. Ba(sub 0.50)Sr(sub 0.50)TiO (sub 3) films, nominally 400 nm thick, were deposited on 48 0.25 mm thick, 5 cm diameter LaAlO(sub 3) wafers. Although previous results suggested that Mn-doped films on MgO were intrinsically superior in terms of phase shift per unit loss, for this application phase shift per unit length was more important. The composition was selected as a compromise between tuning and loss for room temperature operation (e.g. crystallinity progressively degrades for Ba concentrations in excess of 30 percent). As a prelude to fabricating the array, it was necessary to process, screen, and inventory a large number of samples. Variable angle ellipsometry was used to characterize refractive index and film thickness across each wafer. Microstructural properties of the thin films were characterized using high resolution X-ray diffractometry. Finally, prototype phase shifters and resonators were patterned on each wafer and RE probed to measure tuning as a function of dc bias voltage as well as peak (0 field) permittivity and unloaded Q. The relationship among film quality and uniformity and performance is analyzed. This work presents the first statistically relevant study of film quality and microwave performance and represents a milestone towards commercialization of thin ferroelectric films for microwave applications.

Ferroelectric thin films↗
NASA NTRS2003

Statistical Evaluation and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads

Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield/ultimate strength and high- cycle fatigue capability. This Technical Publication examines the cumulative distribution percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematica to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile is then presented along with a curve tit to this value. Another Excel macro that calculates the combination using Monte Carlo simulation is shown. Unlike the traditional techniques. these methods quantify the calculated load value with a consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Additionally, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can substantially lower the design loading without losing any of the identified structural reliability.

Brown, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗