Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Abstract

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.