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A framework to implement human reliability analysis during early design stages of advanced reactors

Nuclear power plants require human actions throughout their lifecycle from design, construction, operation, and decommissioning. However, for advanced reactors (e.g., Generation IV), the reliance on human intervention in safety-related actions is expected to be reduced or completely replaced by automated actions. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Standard for Advanced Non-LWR Nuclear Power Plants requires that the impacts of all operator actions are captured and incorporated in the risk of the modeled plant. Moreover, the Modernization of Technical Requirements for Licensing Advanced Reactors requires human reliability analysis (HRA) to be included throughout all design and PRA development stages. However, due to the lack of details during the early design stages, HRA is often postponed until the design is mature enough. Conducting HRA in later design stages, though it may be adequate in capturing pre-, at-, and post-initiators comes short of informing the design itself in the iterative design lifecycle. Hence, this paper presents a framework to include HRA during the design's early stages, pre-conceptual or conceptual. The proposed framework provides a process for the removal of operator actions that do not contribute to the risk and the identification of all key operator actions that are critical to the safety of the design. The results of this framework are then used to inform the design of those safety-related operator actions to update the design further. Then, using information from the updated design, this framework can be reapplied to investigate the impact of the design update on human reliability. The PRA model of the X-energy's pre-conceptual Xe-100 high-temperature gas-cooled pebble-bed reactor (HTGR-PB) design is used to demonstrate the approach. In the pre-conceptual Xe-100 PRA model, also called Phase 0 PRA model, human actions were considered an integral part of analyzing the plant response to different initiating events. Hence, in this paper, all possible human actions in the Xe-100 PRA model are identified, analyzed, and removed to emulate a design relying only on the available automated control systems. The preliminary results of this assessment show how safe the Xe-100 design is even without crediting any human actions. The results also list necessary sequences in which operator actions are critical to the risk profile of the design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Methods and system for siting advanced nuclear reactors and evaluating energy policy concerns

There is a growing sociopolitical desire to develop cleaner energy sources in the United States and maintain energy security. Regardless of politics, many coal-fired electric plants have already been shut down and many utilities are vowing to retire their current coal-fired assets within the next two decades. Replacement power assets require consideration of appropriate siting. A geographic information system (GIS)-based multicriteria decision analysis approach is useful to assist utility and energy companies, as well as policymakers, to evaluate potential areas for siting new plants in the contiguous United States. A GIS-based framework is simply a database of location information that allows for mapping, querying, modeling, and analyzing data based on location. The spatial output can be structured to be visual, allowing for easier analysis of location data. The need to site additional power assets, including renewable resources and clean power sources, such as nuclear, led to the development of the Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion (OR-SAGE) tool discussed in this paper. The tool takes inputs such as population growth, water availability, environmental indicators, and tectonic and geological hazards to provide an in-depth visual analysis for siting options. Energy companies and other stakeholders can use OR-SAGE to procure feedback quickly and effectively on land suitability based on technology specific inputs. Policymakers can use OR-SAGE to analyze the impacts of future energy technology decisions, while balancing competing resource use. Overall, this paper discusses the recent use of OR-SAGE for these purposes and plans for future development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Modeling interconnections of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants, part 3: Spatiotemporal probabilistic physics-of-failure analysis and its connection to safety and financial performance

Here, this paper is a byproduct of a line of research by the authors to analyze interrelationships of safety and financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The result of this line of research is summarized in three parts: Part 1 covers a categorical review of relevant literature and the theoretical bases that support the methodological developments in Part 2. Part 2 introduces an Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework to quantify the interconnections of safety and financial performance with a focus on operation and maintenance (O&M) of NPPs. Part 2 has also demonstrated the applicability and values of the I-ERM methodology through an NPP case study. This paper is Part 3, where detailed development and implementation of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., probabilistic physics-of-failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with safety and financial performance is reported. In this article, the physical failure modeling for hardware components is advanced by incorporating finite element analysis (FEA) into PPoF analysis and coupling the FEA-based PPoF with the maintenance performance through a renewal process model. This article covers two scientific contributions: (i) first-of-its-kind incorporation of FEA into the PPoF model of thermal fatigue for NPP components; and (ii) advancing the interface between the PPoF analysis and the renewal process model in order to deal with spatiotemporal FEA outputs and to efficiently estimate the physical transition rates even when the PPoF outputs are dominated by success data. Through the incorporation of FEA, the resolution of the PPoF analysis is enhanced as spatiotemporal conditions such as stress and temperature can be considered explicitly instead of relying on simplified assumptions or analytical models with reduced spatiotemporal dimensions. To demonstrate an application of the FEA-based PPoF analysis and its coupling with maintenance through the renewal process model, a case study is conducted using excess letdown elbow piping in the chemical and volume control system of a Pressurized Water Reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A review of neutronics and thermal hydraulics–based screening methods applied to accelerated nuclear fuel qualification

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art engineering approach for using thermal hydraulic (TH) and neutronics modeling and simulation (M&S) tools to perform rapid screening studies of novel nuclear fuel concepts within the context of accelerated fuel qualification. Global research efforts have introduced nuclear fuel and material concepts that mark a significant departure from traditional reactor materials. The number of new technologies being considered for development for light water reactors and advanced reactor types has created the need for an accelerated fuel qualification procedure. A key component of this procedure is the rapid identification of the most promising fuel concepts using computational screening studies. Advanced TH and neutronic M&S tools should be leveraged to efficiently determine whether the reactor performance and safety characteristics of a given concept warrant additional studies or whether the concept requires modification or elimination. This paper reviews best practices for performing these TH and neutronics screening studies at various stages during a fuel concept's progression through the qualification procedure. The motivation behind standardizing this approach is to minimize time and resources spent on qualification activities for fuel concepts that could be quickly refined or eliminated from consideration based on their reactor physics and TH characteristics. Adoption of this screening procedure—which focuses primarily on nuclear fuels but may be applicable to other reactor materials—will also help accelerate new material qualification by generating boundary conditions crucial to fuel performance evaluations and highlighting needed areas of separate effects experimentation. This article reviews the motivation behind the introduction of novel nuclear fuel concepts, provides incentive for utilizing TH- and neutronics-based screening studies, describes the screening approach and methodology, and includes discussion on how to interpret screening results to provide recommendations for the continued development of a given concept.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A critical review of irradiation-induced changes in reactor pressure vessel steels

A large body of work has been conducted to investigate the embrittlement and degradation of reactor pressure vessel (RPV) steels. This includes experiments on alloys with different compositions, performed in research and test reactors and ion accelerators that span various temperatures, fluxes, and fluences. In this paper, we perform a critical review of the published experimental data and compile experimentally reported values for dislocation loop size/density, precipitate size/density and yield stress into an easily downloadable format that can be used by both experimentalists and modelers. This thorough experimental review is complemented by a brief review of simulation efforts at atomistic and mesoscopic length scales. Finally, this paper highlights key aspects of the behavior of RPV steels under irradiation, identifies gaps or discrepancies in current understanding, and identifies priority future research directions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

An extended methodology for automated calculations of non-Boltzmann kinetic sequences: H + C 2 H 2 + X and combustion impact

It is generally assumed in phenomenological kinetic models that bimolecular reactions only occur between species whose rovibrational energy follows a Boltzmann (thermal) distribution. That is, any complexes initially formed in non-Boltzmann distributions are assumed to be thermalized by energy-transferring collisions prior to bimolecular reactions. Given the high mole fractions of reactive species, X, in combustion environments, reactive collisions of the complexes with X often occur on the same timescale as energy-transferring collisions – yielding sequences proceeding through non-Boltzmann intermediates across multiple potential energy surfaces. Recent studies have shown that such non-Boltzmann kinetic sequences can have substantial impact on the global reactivity in combustion systems. Simulations of these non-Boltzmann reaction sequences, which can be described in phenomenological kinetic models via chemically termolecular reactions, require that rovibrational excitation from one potential energy surface be carried over to the next. Here this paper presents an extended theoretical and computational methodology that couples multiple master equations and derives rate constants for phenomenological reactions describing the conversion of thermal reactants to thermal products for use in phenomenological kinetic schemes. The methodology is then implemented using in-house scripts for non-Boltzmann sequences involving C2H$^*_3$ + X (with X = O 2 , H, and OH) where C 2 H$^*_3$ is formed via H + C 2 H 2 association – which were identified as having strong potential for influencing combustion predictions in a recent study. The results reveal that non-Boltzmann reaction sequences for X = O 2 (the primary focus of this paper) significantly alters the total conversion rate from H + C 2 H 2 to products and product branching fractions from those of thermal sequential pathways. Furthermore, the present results demonstrate that non-Boltzmann reaction sequences have significant impact – as high as an order of magnitude – on predicted ignition delay times. Similarly, they yield significantly different dependence of ignition delay times with temperature and O 2 mole fraction – yielding signatures that are likely observable experimentally.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Understanding the role of flow dynamics in thermoacoustic combustion instability

Thermoacoustic combustion instability is one of the most challenging operational issues in several high-performance, low-emissions combustion technologies, including gas turbines, aircraft engines, rockets, and industrial boilers. Driven by the coupling between combustor acoustics and flame heat release rate fluctuations, thermoacoustic combustion instability can lead to reduced operability, increased emissions, and, in the most extreme cases, catastrophic failure of combustor components. The feedback loop between acoustics and combustion is often facilitated by fluid mechanic oscillations, referred to as “velocity coupling,” whereby acoustic oscillations drive flow fluctuations, which in turn create fluctuations in the flame. The character of these fluid mechanic oscillations is highly dependent on the structure of the flow field and the receptivity of the flow to external excitation. Combustor flow fields use features like fluid recirculation and shear to enhance flame holding and reduce emissions, but these are also the same features that can make the flow receptive to acoustic excitation or even drive self-excited oscillations. Here, in this paper, we discuss the basics of thermoacoustic instability with a focus on the role of hydrodynamic oscillations in typical combustor flows. To facilitate this discussion, we explore the hydrodynamic instability characteristics of several key combustor unit flows (wakes, swirling jets, etc.) and show how the hydrodynamic stability of a flow is an important consideration in determining a combustor’s propensity for thermoacoustic oscillations. Several examples of coupling between hydrodynamics and thermoacoustics are discussed to illustrate this important link. The paper concludes by discussing the potential for designing flow fields that are thermoacoustic instability resistant, either through a reduction in the receptivity of the flow or through nonlinear coupling mechanisms by which self-excited flow instabilities can suppress velocity-coupled combustion oscillations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Ku-band electron linac for battery-powered hand-portable 2-MeV X-ray generator

X-ray generators, producing radiation in MeV range, are a critical tool for radiography, non-destructive testing and security applications. Field operation of such source requires them to be hand-portable, autonomous and allow parameter adjustability. RF linear accelerators can serve as a flexible, reliable, and robust radiation generator alternative to dangerous radioisotopes and bulky betatrons that are currently used for field radiography if their size, weight, cost, and imaging performance are matched to these sources. Here, in this paper, we present the design and test results of a 2 MeV Ku-band electron linac for a hand-portable X-ray generator system for field radiography being developed by RadiaBeam. The dramatic scale of miniaturization and cost-reduction is achieved thanks to the implementation of innovative technologies such as air-cooled Ku-band air-traffic control magnetrons, a split accelerating structure fabrication technique, and solid-state Marx modulators. This paper presents the design of the first prototype of the accelerator, its operation from Li-Ion batteries, as well as high-power and beam measurements.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Optimizing and Exploring Untapped Micro-Hydro Hybrid Systems: a Multi-Objective Approach for Crystal Lake as a Large-Scale Energy Storage Solution

Increasing electricity demand and concerns about climate change and fossil fuel consumption have highlighted the importance of renewable energy resources and storage systems. This paper proposes a method for exploring untapped pumped hydro storage potentials to accommodate intermittent renewable energy generation profiles. Hourly measured data from 2022 in Benzie County, Michigan, United States, were gathered for system sizing and a thorough, realistic analysis. By employing the multi-objective grey wolf optimization algorithm, we formulated optimal sizing and energy-management strategies for three different scenarios. Unlike similar studies, the 3rd with triple objective functions (OFs) scenario aims to maximize both reliability and ecological OFs while minimizing the cost OF. It has shown promising results with multiple solutions, considering economic, environmental, and reliability factors. A case study conducted in Crystal Lake, Michigan, revealed that although Crystal Lake would function only as a micro-hydro power facility, it is a promising and huge storage unit with a substantial storage capacity of around 14.9734GWh. The system investigated is significant in the USA due to its rapid deployment capabilities, minimal construction requirements, and ease of integration with the distribution grid. The fuzzy logic method was employed to identify the best non-dominant solution among the other solutions. Furthermore, these outcomes include a notably low levelized cost of energy at 0.046147$/kWh, a robust index of reliability of 99.705%, and a significant reduction in CO₂ emissions amounting to 7.9142×10 3 tons/year, when considering the triple OFs. The paper’s methodology provides valuable insights for regions aiming to utilize renewable energy from untapped storage sources.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Measuring Success: A Refined Methodology for Estimating Long-term Continuous Improvement

Successful resource management systems require current and detailed feedback on operational and corporate-level performance. As corporate accountability concerns intensify, the precision and reliability of these performance metrics have become crucial. Traditional savings estimation methods can be difficult to understand, particularly linear regression, and can provide varying results. This paper reviews common efficiency metrics and highlights underlying mathematical inconsistencies when estimating total and percent savings with current methods. A refined approach to calculating long-term utility savings is proposed that simplifies current methodologies utilizing ratios to define an adjusted baseline, allowing for consistent and fair aggregation of results across multiple scales from resources to corporate performance. A simplified example demonstrates how the proposed methodology improves upon existing methods, especially in intermediate years. This paper’s major contributions are the simplified approach for converting modeled utility usage into estimated savings and the consistent roll-up methodology enabling more comparable, aggregable, and actionable results across scales.

Price, Chris [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000202007906)↗

The modeling of risk perception in the use of structural health monitoring information for optimal maintenance decisions

This paper proposes an approach to select a maintenance strategy from a predefined set of choices considering the decision maker’s behavioral risk profile. It is assumed that the damage state is characterized by a continuous state parameter probabilistically inferred from observable sensor data. This work applies an engineering application of consequence-based decision-making incorporating the acceptable risk intensity of the decision-maker, i.e., the decision-maker’s (individual or an organization) valuation of the outcome of a decision, using a risk profile model. The utility of a decision-maker is subjective, and this paper considers the fact that different decision-makers mentally assign a different importance factor (the utility) to the seriousness or urgency to take necessary actions with the increasing intensity of structural damage. The approach herein incorporates a layer of human psychology on selecting appropriate maintenance strategies that not only depend on the posterior distribution of unmeasurable damage state but also consider the behavioral risk profile of the decision-maker. Further, the collective decision-making of an organization consisting of many individuals is also investigated. The approach is exemplified in a case study involving life cycle monitoring of a miter gate, part of a lock system enabling navigation of inland waterways.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantitative evaluation of common cause failures in high safety-significant safety-related digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems. They are proven to be more reliable, cheaper, and easier to maintain given obsolescence of analog components. However, they also pose new engineering and technical challenges, such as possibility of common cause failures (CCFs) unique to digital systems. Here this paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) that is developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A methodology for evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs was developed as part of the framework. The framework integrates three stages of a typical risk assessment—qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analyses. The quantified risks compared with respective acceptance criteria provide valuable insights for system architecture alternatives allowing design optimization in terms of risk reduction and cost savings. A comprehensive case study performed to demonstrate the framework's capabilities is documented here in this paper. Results show that the PRADIC is a powerful tool capable to identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their impacts on system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Recent advances in computational mathematics and applications

We are honored to bring you this special issue dedicated to recent advances in computational mathematics and applications in science and engineering. The papers in this special issue were presented in ”Conference on Computational Mathematics and Applications (CCMA)” held at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) during October 25–27, 2019. The conference has attracted about 90 attendees from six countries. The 15 papers in the special issue comprise a diverse collection of theoretical numerical analysis as well as applications in various subjects. Topics cover optimal control of PDEs, discontinuous Galerkin methods, fluid flow in porous media, turbulence flow, static and moving interface problems, complex fluids composed by the mixture of Newtonian fluid and nematic (liquid crystal) flows, modeling of ocean–atmosphere system, image segmentation algorithm, uncertainty quantification problems for turbulence model and Maxwell’s equations, iterative solver for systems resulting from mixed methods, and novel methods for solving systems of nonlinear equations. As the Guest Editors we would like to thank Dr. Leland Jameson at NSF (National Science Foundation) for kindly supporting our conference proposal which made this conference possible. We would also like to thank Darren Sugrue from Elsevier who provided partial support for our conference, and Thennarasu Gunasekaran and his production team from Elsevier who produced this nice special issue. We are grateful to many people (Dr. Zhijian Wu, Lori Ornelas, Elsa Juarez, and many Ph.D. students) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences of UNLV who provided tremendous support for the conference. Finally, we very much appreciate all authors who contributed their precious results to this special issue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

CORSIA: The first internationally adopted approach to calculate life-cycle GHG emissions for aviation fuels

The aviation sector has grown at a significant pace in recent years, and despite improvements in aircraft efficiency, the sector's impact on climate change is a growing concern. To address this concern, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) to help reduce aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This paper presents a methodology agreed by the 193 ICAO member states to evaluate the life-cycle GHG emissions of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), in the CORSIA system. The core life-cycle assessment and induced land use change values of SAFs are presented to determine the GHG savings of certified pathways. The paper aims to present that a number of SAFs can yield significant life-cycle emission reductions compared to petroleum-derived jet fuel. This implies the potentially major role of SAFs in reducing aviation's carbon footprint.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical validation of building energy simulation model input parameter for multizone commercial building during the cooling season

This paper presents a critical advancement in Building Energy Modeling (BEM) through an empirical validation approach using a high-quality dataset from a multizone commercial office building in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. BEM is widely utilized in diverse construction applications, but its effectiveness relies on the accuracy of its predictions. The study focuses on empirical validation of input parameters in BEM, including building envelope data, infiltration modeling, and rooftop unit system performance curves. The validation of simulation input parameters leads to substantial improvements in the accuracy of simulation results. Notable both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 0.5 % for indoor air temperature and 17 % for indoor air relative humidity compared to the previous model. At the system level, both NMBE and cv (RMSE) values are reduced by 2 % for fan energy consumption and 4 % for cooling energy consumption, compared to the previous model. A literature review highlights a significant gap in empirical validation studies, which predominantly concentrate on either component-level or whole building validation. Furthermore, many studies employ simplified setups that may not faithfully represent the complexities of multizone commercial buildings. This paper distinguishes itself by emphasizing the critical importance of component-level input parameter validation. It underlines the need to validate data related to building envelope components and HVAC system performance curves, resulting in more accurate simulation outcomes. In conclusion, the utilization of actual multizone commercial building data enhances the study's practical relevance. In summary, this research underscores the pivotal role of input parameter validation in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of BEM.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Potential Effects of Climate Change and Solar Radiation Modification on Renewable Energy Resources

Solar radiation modification (SRM) is a possible deliberate approach to decrease or reflect incoming solar radiation with the goal of reducing global temperatures, which have increased over the last decades due to high atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Stratospheric aerosol injection, specifically, has shown potential for successfully reducing global temperatures in climate model simulations. Despite the growing literature in the areas of climate change and SRM, their combined effects on renewable energy generation, a climate change mitigation strategy, have not been addressed. In this review paper, we synthesize previous literature on the possible effects of climate change and SRM on renewable energy resources (i.e., wind energy, solar energy, biomass energy, and hydropower), review the status of climate change and SRM research, and explore potential effects of SRM on renewable energy primarily in the Continental United States (CONUS), but with global perspectives as well. We discuss the research challenges and impacts of SRM on renewable energy and conclude by discussing the potential implications of SRM for renewables for SRM governance and policy. This work is not advocating for or against SRM. It is highlighting an important potential impact for future decision makers.

Kumler, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Advancements in the modification of TiFe alloys for enhanced hydrogen Storage: Strategies and future Directions

Hydrogen is considered a promising clean energy source, and a potential alternative to conventional fossil fuels. TiFe alloy has been particularly interesting due to its ability to reversibly absorb and desorb hydrogen at room temperature and low pressure. The initial hydrogen absorption stage of TiFe alloy requires activation under high-temperature and high-pressure conditions, which hinders its practical application. Here, this paper primarily examines the impact of elemental substitution methods on the hydrogen storage capabilities of TiFe alloys, with a particular emphasis on elucidating the mechanisms associated with various substituent elements. Commonly utilized elements, such as Mn, V, and Zr, significantly improve the activation performance of TiFe alloys. Additionally, the incorporation of elements such as Ni, Cr, Ce, and Y contributes to the modulation of phase composition, as well as the enhancement of activation and kinetic properties. However, there exists a notable deficiency in systematic investigations concerning alternative elements, coupled with a frequent oversight of the preparation process's influence on the hydrogen storage characteristics of these alloys. Consequently, the mechanisms by which different elements affect the hydrogen storage process in TiFe alloys remain inadequately understood among current research, thereby complicating the establishment of experiment-based design guidelines for TiFe alloys. Furthermore, the plasma treatment and high-entropy alloying present new approaches for optimizing the hydrogen storage properties of TiFe alloys. This paper aims to present novel research perspectives and insights to scholars in the field by introducing methods for the modification of TiFe alloys.

Hydrogen storage↗