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NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification in Remaining Useful Life of Aerospace Components using State Space Models and Inverse FORM

This paper investigates the use of the inverse first-order reliability method (inverse- FORM) to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life (RUL) of aerospace components. The prediction of remaining useful life is an integral part of system health prognosis, and directly helps in online health monitoring and decision-making. However, the prediction of remaining useful life is affected by several sources of uncertainty, and therefore it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty in the remaining useful life prediction. While system parameter uncertainty and physical variability can be easily included in inverse-FORM, this paper extends the methodology to include: (1) future loading uncertainty, (2) process noise; and (3) uncertainty in the state estimate. The inverse-FORM method has been used in this paper to (1) quickly obtain probability bounds on the remaining useful life prediction; and (2) calculate the entire probability distribution of remaining useful life prediction, and the results are verified against Monte Carlo sampling. The proposed methodology is illustrated using a numerical example.

Sankararaman, Shankar↗

NASA NTRS1991

The NASA Radiation Health Program

The NASA program for determining the impact of cosmic radiation on health is described in terms of its long-term goal of reducing the uncertainty of radiation-model prediction to +/- 25 percent by 2010. The Space Radiation Health Program (SRHP) is intended to address fundamental issues for establishing a scientific basis for human radiation protection: (1) the prediction of the probability of biological effects from radiation; (2) the reduction of uncertainty in predicted highly charged energetic particles; and (3) the characterization of background flux from Galactic cosmic rays. Another key objective is to develop related technologies for ground- and space-based solar monitoring to predict events involving solar energetic particles. Although substantial uncertainties are involved in the prediction of such events, the SRHP is essential for determining crucial variables related to launching mass and humans into orbit.

Nicogossian, A. E.↗

NASA NTRS1974

Surface /catalytic/ reactions on upper atmospheric aerosols

Highly reactive minor species and aerosol layers are present together at times in certain regions of the upper atmosphere. It is suggested that this interplay may lead to surface reactions that could affect the local photochemical balance. A simple model of the surface recombination of atomic oxygen at the mesopause, incorporating rough estimates of aerosol concentrations, is used to estimate the importance of this effect. Surface recombination does appear to be significant in comparison with gas phase recombination for atomic oxygen; however, major uncertainties remain in the model.

Olivero, J. J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Rotorcraft control system design for uncertain vehicle dynamics using quantitative feedback theory

Quantitative Feedback Theory describes a frequency-domain technique for the design of multi-input, multi-output control systems which must meet time or frequency domain performance criteria when specified uncertainty exists in the linear description of the vehicle dynamics. This theory is applied to the design of the longitudinal flight control system for a linear model of the BO-105C rotorcraft. Uncertainty in the vehicle model is due to the variation in the vehicle dynamics over a range of airspeeds from 0-100 kts. For purposes of exposition, the vehicle description contains no rotor or actuator dynamics. The design example indicates the manner in which significant uncertainty exists in the vehicle model. The advantage of using a sequential loop closure technique to reduce the cost of feedback is demonstrated by example.

Hess, R. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Uncertainty methodology for in-flight thrust determination

A methodology is proposed for the evaluation of uncertainty in the in-flight determination of aircraft thrust, which provides error traceability to a national standards laboratory, and is independent of the procedure used to calculate or measure thrust in flight, thereby yielding a consistent means for the evaluation of measurement capabilities. Attention is given to the factors of measurement error, precision, bias, uncertainty, error estimation and classification, error propagation, ground testing, and the related problems of model bias error, model precision error, and the uncertainty limit.

Adams, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Uncertainty Analysis of Instrument Calibration and Application

Experimental aerodynamic researchers require estimated precision and bias uncertainties of measured physical quantities, typically at 95 percent confidence levels. Uncertainties of final computed aerodynamic parameters are obtained by propagation of individual measurement uncertainties through the defining functional expressions. In this paper, rigorous mathematical techniques are extended to determine precision and bias uncertainties of any instrument-sensor system. Through this analysis, instrument uncertainties determined through calibration are now expressed as functions of the corresponding measurement for linear and nonlinear univariate and multivariate processes. Treatment of correlated measurement precision error is developed. During laboratory calibration, calibration standard uncertainties are assumed to be an order of magnitude less than those of the instrument being calibrated. Often calibration standards do not satisfy this assumption. This paper applies rigorous statistical methods for inclusion of calibration standard uncertainty and covariance due to the order of their application. The effects of mathematical modeling error on calibration bias uncertainty are quantified. The effects of experimental design on uncertainty are analyzed. The importance of replication is emphasized, techniques for estimation of both bias and precision uncertainties using replication are developed. Statistical tests for stationarity of calibration parameters over time are obtained.

Tripp, John S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Calibration of Airframe and Occupant Models for Two Full-Scale Rotorcraft Crash Tests

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system integrated finite element model of the test article. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full-scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, thereby reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Validation and Verification of Operational Land Analysis Activities at the Air Force Weather Agency

The NASA developed Land Information System (LIS) is the Air Force Weather Agency's (AFWA) operational Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) combining real time precipitation observations and analyses, global forecast model data, vegetation, terrain, and soil parameters with the community Noah land surface model, along with other hydrology module options, to generate profile analyses of global soil moisture, soil temperature, and other important land surface characteristics. (1) A range of satellite data products and surface observations used to generate the land analysis products (2) Global, 1/4 deg spatial resolution (3) Model analysis generated at 3 hours. AFWA recognizes the importance of operational benchmarking and uncertainty characterization for land surface modeling and is developing standard methods, software, and metrics to verify and/or validate LIS output products. To facilitate this and other needs for land analysis activities at AFWA, the Model Evaluation Toolkit (MET) -- a joint product of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Developmental Testbed Center (NCAR DTC), AFWA, and the user community -- and the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT), developed at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), have been adapted to operational benchmarking needs of AFWA's land characterization activities.

Shaw, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2012

Development and Calibration of a System-Integrated Rotorcraft Finite Element Model for Impact Scenarios

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber (DEA) under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. The presence of this energy absorbing device reduced the peak impact acceleration levels by a factor of three. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system-integrated finite element model of the test article developed in parallel with the test program. In preparation for the full-scale crash test, a series of sub-scale and MD-500 mass simulator tests were conducted to evaluate the impact performances of various components and subsystems, including new crush tubes and the DEA blocks. Parameters defined for the system-integrated finite element model were determined from these tests. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the full-scale crash test without the DEA. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods identified modeling deficiencies, evaluated parameter importance, and proposed required model changes. The multidimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and copilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. One lesson learned was that this approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and pretest predictions. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, potentially reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗

NASA NTRS2026

Updated global and regional trends of stratospheric ozone profiles

We present updated evaluation of stratospheric ozone profile trends in the 60° S–60°N latitude range using long-term ground-based and satellite climate data records, as well as simulations by chemistry-climate models. The trends are evaluated using the LOTUS (Long-term Ozone Trends and Uncertainties in the Stratosphere) regression model. Analyses of satellite data confirm the statistically significant positive ozone trends in the period 2000–2024 in the upper stratosphere of ~1–3% per decade, with larger trends at mid-latitudes compared to the tropics. The trends are slightly positive or close to zero in the middle stratosphere, and mostly negative, -1 to -2% per decade, in the lower stratosphere, but they are not statistically significant. The morphology and magnitude of ozone trends are similar to previous analyses (2000–2020 trends). Ozone trends in 2000–2024 predicted by chemistry-climate model simulations are in good agreement with combined satellite trends. In the upper stratosphere, models predict a slightly stronger ozone recovery than observations. In the lower stratosphere, both models and satellite observations report negative trends in the tropics, while modelled ozone trends are slightly positive at mid-latitudes. Ozone profile trends over several stations estimated from ground-based records capture the same overall vertical pattern of ozone trends as merged gridded satellite datasets. Analyses of regional ozone profile trends in 2003–2024 using merged satellite datasets confirmed the previous observations of a longitudinal structure in ozone trends in the NH mid-latitude stratosphere, with positive trends over Scandinavia and negative trends over Siberia. However, the magnitude of this dipole-like structure is reduced compared to previous analyses.

trends↗

NASA NTRS2021

Real-time Unimpeded Taxi Out Machine Learning Service

This paper describes a study on the estimation of the unimpeded taxi out time using Machine Learning (ML) tools and proposes an implementation that can be used to make real-time predictions at any airport in the National Airspace System. Kedro, an open-source pipeline framework, is used to develop the model definition and training. Models are stored in scikit-learn containers on a MLFlow server where they can be retrieved and served to make predictions in the live system. These open source frameworks provide common structures between ML services, allow for easier maintenance and updates, and overall deliver an easier CI/CD (Continuous Integration/Continuous Deployment) process. The current models were trained on data acquired at KCLT and KDFW from June 1st to December 31st, 2019 and compute taxi time in the ramp, airport movement area (AMA) and total (from gates to runways). The current versions of the models achieve relatively low uncertainties of about 10 to 15% for the total and AMA taxi times and about 20% for the ramp taxi time at both KCLT and KDFW. Initial tests on offline data from 2020 and 2021 show a small degradation (10 to 15%) in accuracy performance indicating the model’s resilience to operational changes over time.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2021

Real-time Unimpeded Taxi Out Machine Learning Service

This presentation describes a study on the estimation of the unimpeded taxi out time using Machine Learning (ML) tools and proposes an implementation that can be used to make real-time predictions at any airport in the National Airspace System. Kedro, an open-source pipeline framework, is used to develop the model definition and training. Models are stored in scikit-learn containers on a MLFlow server where they can be retrieved and served to make predictions in the live system. These open source frameworks provide common structures between ML services, allow for easier maintenance and updates, and overall deliver an easier CI/CD (Continuous Integration/Continuous Deployment) process. The current models were trained on data acquired at KCLT and KDFW from June 1st to December 31st, 2019 and compute taxi time in the ramp, airport movement area (AMA) and total (from gates to runways). The current versions of the models achieve relatively low uncertainties of about 10 to 15% for the total and AMA taxi times and about 20% for the ramp taxi time at both KCLT and KDFW. Initial tests on offline data from 2020 and 2021 show a small degradation (10 to 15%) in accuracy performance indicating the model’s resilience to operational changes over time.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PMSM Parameter Estimation using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer

In this paper, the problem of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) speed and unknown load torque estimation is addressed. For this purpose, a interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is used. First, the PMSM model is linearized in order to make it in a suitable form for the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to allow the joint estimation of the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. The main advantages of this approach is that it not only allows the joint state and unknown input estimation, but also to take the different uncertainty sources into account. Indeed, taking model and measurement uncertainty into account is crucial. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated with the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.

Elinirina I Robinson↗

NASA NTRS1995

Uniqueness of a solution of a steady state photochemical problem: Applications to Mars

Based on the conservation of chemical elements in chemical reactions, a rule is proved that the number of boundary conditions given by densities and/or nonzero velocities should not be less than the number of chemical elements in the system, and the boundary conditions for species given by densities and velocities should include all elements in the system. Applications of this rule to Mars are considered. It is shown that the problem of the CO2-H2O chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars, say, in the range of 0-80 km does not have a unique solution, if only CO2 and H2O densities are given at the lower boundary, and the remaining boundary conditions are fluxes. Two examples of models of this type are discussed. Two models of the photochemistry of the Martian atmosphere, with and without nitrogen chemistry, are considered. The oxygen nonthermal escape ratio of 1.2 x 10(exp 8)/cu cm/s is given at 240 km and is balanced with the total hydrogen escape rate within an uncertainty of 1% for both models. Both models fit the measured O2 and CO mixing ratios, the O3 abundance, and the O2 1.27-micrometer dayglow almost within the uncertainties of the measured values, though the model without nitrogen chemistry fits better. The importance of nitrogen chemistry in the lower and middle atmosphere of Mars depends on a fine balance between production of NO and N in the upper atmosphere which is not known within the required accuracy.

Krasnopolsky, Vladimir A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

MARIE Dose and Flux Measurements in Mars Orbit

We present results from the Martian Radiation Environment Experiment (MARIE), aboard the 2001 Mars Odyssey spacecraft in orbit around Mars. MARIE operated successfully from March 2002 through October 2003. At the time of this writing, the instrument is off due to a loss of communications during an extremely intense Solar Particle Event. Efforts to revive MARIE are planned for Spring 2004, when Odyssey's role as a communications relay for the MER rovers is completed. During the period of successful operation, MARIE returned the first detailed energetic charged particle data from Mars. Due to limitations of the instrument, normalizing MARIE data to flux or dose is not straightforward - several large corrections are needed. Thus normalized results (like dose or flux) have large uncertainties and/or significant model-dependence. The problems in normalization are mainly due to inefficiency in detecting high-energy protons (signal-to-noise problems force the trigger threshold to be higher than optimal), to the excessively high gains employed in the signal processing electronics (many ions deposit energy sufficient to saturate the electronics, and dE/dx information is lost), and to artifacts associated with the two trigger detectors (incomplete registration of dE/dx). Despite these problems, MARIE is efficient for detecting helium ions with kinetic energies above about 30 MeV/nucleon, and for detecting high-energy ions (energies above about 400 MeV/nucleon) with charges from 5 to 10. Fluxes of these heavier ions can be compared to fluxes obtained from the ACE/CRIS instrument, providing at least one area of direct comparison between data obtained at Earth and at Mars; this analysis will be presented as a work in progress. We will also present dose-rate data, with a detailed explanation of the many sources of uncertainty in normalization. The results for both flux and dose will be compared to predictions of the HZETRN model of the GCR.

Zeitlin, C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗

NASA NTRS2006

Conflict Detection Using Variable Four-Dimensional Uncertainty Bounds to Control Missed Alerts

Decision-support tools for maintaining pairwise aircraft separation rely on conflict detection to alert the operator when the predicted trajectories of aircraft will result in a loss of separation. But aircraft frequently do not follow their predicted trajectories exactly. This can cause missed alerts and the failure of strategic separation procedures. We present a technique for modeling a bounded region of uncertainty around a four-dimensional predicted trajectory and an algorithm for detecting conflicts between trajectories modeled in this way that avoids missed alerts as long as the aircraft remain within the specified regions of uncertainty. In addition, we present an algorithm for detecting the intrusion of a trajectory modeled in this way into an area hazard modeled as a polygonal region. The size of the region of uncertainty can vary along the trajectory continually and independently in the along-path, cross-track, and vertical dimensions, providing an opportunity to reduce the likelihood of false alerts while protecting against typical prediction errors. The algorithm has been implemented in the Autonomous Operations Planner, a NASA Langley prototype decision support tool for airborne self-separation.

Karr, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Aerosol Mapping From Space: Strengths, Limitations, and Applications

The aerosol data products from the NASA Earth Observing System's MISR and MODIS instruments provide significant advances in regional and global aerosol optical depth (AOD) mapping, aerosol type measurement, and source plume characterization from space. These products have been and are being used for many applications, ranging from regional air quality assessment, to aerosol air mass type identification and evolution, to wildfire smoke injection height and aerosol transport model validation. However, retrieval uncertainties and coverage gaps still limit the quantitative constraints these satellite data place on some important questions, such as global-scale long-term trends and direct aerosol radiative forcing. Major advances in these areas seem to require a different paradigm, involving the integration of satellite with suborbital data and with models. This presentation will briefly summarize where we stand, and what incremental improvements we can expect, with the current MISR and MODIS aerosol products, and will then elaborate on some initial steps aimed at the necessary integration of satellite data with data from other sources and with chemical transport models.

Kahn, Ralph↗