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To command a rover to go to a location of scientific interest on a remote planet, the rover must be capable of reliably tracking the target designated by the scientist from ten or more meters away. The rover must maintain lock on the target while traversing rough terrain and avoiding obstacles without the need for communication with Earth.
The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science program has recently conducted a series of month-long intensive observation periods (IOPs), asking the public to submit daily reports on cloud and sky conditions from all regions of Earth. This provides a wealth of crowdsourced observations from the ground, which complements other conventional scientific cloud data. In addition, the GLOBE reports are matched in space and time with geostationary and low Earth orbit satellites, which allows for a straightforward comparison of cloud properties, and minimizes the biases associated with mismatched sampling between participants and satellites. The matched GLOBE dataset is used to calculate the mean observed cloud cover by atmospheric level both worldwide and by region. The overall magnitudes of cloud cover between the GLOBE participants and the matched satellites agree within 10%, which is notable given the distinctly different natures of the data sources. The mean vertical cloud profiles show GLOBE reporting more low-level clouds and fewer high-level clouds than satellites. The low cloud disagreement is likely related to satellites missing low clouds when high clouds block their view. Conversely, the high cloud disagreement is related primarily to cloud opacity, as satellites may miss some optically thin clouds. Monte Carlo testing shows the results to be robust, and the tripled amount of IOP data reduces uncertainty by half. These findings also highlight ways in which citizen science IOP data may be used to support scientific research while accounting for their unique properties. Plain Language Summary: Citizen science is becoming an increasingly prominent aspect of scientific research, and so it important to study how citizen science data can be used effectively. For example, The GLOBE Program has recently conducted a series of special data-collecting events, or “challenges”, which gathered large numbers of reports on cloud and sky conditions. Because NASA GLOBE Clouds matches the participant reports with cloud observations from satellites, we can use these data to get a combined view of clouds from above and below. When looking at the average cloud cover for different atmospheric levels across Earth, we find that the GLOBE participants and the satellites agree quite closely. This is a surprising and fascinating find, given how different in nature volunteer ground reports are to satellite measurements. However, there are some small but notable disagreements between GLOBE participants and satellites about the distribution of cloud cover at different levels. In addition, by testing the data for uncertainty, we show that the results from the GLOBE data are reliable, and that more public participation improves the reliability. So, by carefully designing the analysis methodology, and by testing for the uncertainty of the data, citizen science can make a meaningful contribution to scientific research.
Computational modeling programs are invaluable tools that allow us to understand systems, safely develop new processes, and make reliable predictions about future designs. However, the effectiveness of these codes is limited by the degree to which their parameters match the real world. In the field of nuclear engineering, cross section data is one of these vital parameters. Accurate cross section data on important fissile and fissionable isotopes promotes the design of safer and more efficient fabrication, transportation, storage, and stockpiling of nuclear fuel. Unfortunately, there are knowledge gaps in data on key isotopes. In 2011, a multinational meeting hosted by the US Department of Energy Nuclear Criticality Safety Program ranked the priority of certain cross section data needs. In response, Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) designed the Thermal and Epithermal eXperiment (TEX) series of benchmark experiments. Benchmark experiments are used to validate current cross section data. They validate data by comparing the results of an actual experiment to the predicted results from a computational model. The data a benchmark applies to depends on the isotope and energy range the experiment’s neutron multiplication factor ( k eff ) is most sensitive to. The development and testing of the TEX High 240 Plutonium Benchmark will help validate 240 Pu cross section data. The configuration and materials of this benchmark are designed to be most sensitive to 240 Pu's intermediate energy range (from 0.625 ev to 100 keV ). MCNP® models of the assembly have been developed by LLNL and the results have been written in the final design report. In order for the discrepancies between benchmark models and experiments to be attributed to cross section inaccuracies, the accuracy of the models needs to be verified. The goal of this project is to verify of the results of LLNL's modeling by creating a new set of MCNP models and comparing the results.
The PIP-II superconducting linac at Fermilab requires a highly stable RF Reference Line to maintain phase synchronization throughout the accelerator. Temperature-induced changes in the electrical length of long coaxial cables can introduce phase drift and measurement errors. The reference-line architecture mitigates these effects by phase averaging the forward and reflected RF signals, while a phase-locked loop anchors the system to the master oscillator. This work focuses on the characterization, validation, and mechanical integration of station-level RF assemblies using CAD modeling, vector network analyzer measurements, and spectrum analyzer testing. PID-controlled thermal plates will stabilize critical RF components and further reduce temperature-dependent phase and amplitude variations. These methods support repeatable, standardized designs that can be reliably integrated across the different reference-line stations.
The commercial success of small satellite development and multi-satellite missions has led to constellation missions being proposed in every sector of the market. This paradigm shift has the potential to enable more capable and cost-effective space science missions. However, these novel approaches to space missions have outstripped existing policy and analysis methods for assessing the reliability of multi-satellite missions. Mission designers and decisionmakers need new methods and standards for modeling how the reliability of constituent spacecraft elements affect the aggregate reliability of constellations across a wide range of concepts and application-specific requirements. The Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA’s Langley Research Center has developed a methodology for simulating the on-orbit reliability of arbitrary spacecraft constellations. In this paper, the authors describe the methodology and provides examples of how it can be used to evaluate specific constellation designs. To demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, several different constellation configurations are considered, including both homogenous and heterogenous designs. Next, the authors demonstrate the ability to perform broad parameter sweeps to develop greater insight into the intrinsic reliability trends associated with constellation concepts. Finally, the authors provide tables and novel data graphics which enable decisionmakers to quickly discern the relationships between constellation sizes, topologies, replenishment strategies, and overall constellation reliability.
The design of an integrated airframe/propulsion control system architecture is described. The design is based on a prevalidation methodology that used both reliability and performance tools. An account is given of the motivation for the final design and problems associated with both reliability and performance modeling. The appendices contain a listing of the code for both the reliability and performance model used in the design.
The Proton Improvement Plan -II (PIP-II) is a high intensity and high energy proton accelerator which will be used to support the neutrino program at Fermilab. The accelerator will deliver a 2 mA average beam current at a kinetic energy of 800 MeV. Due to the requirements from experiments, this accelerator is designed to be a highly reliable and available system. A target availability of the complete accelerator facility was prescribed to be 90%. An availability and reliability assessment of the accelerator was carried out to ascertain that the design can meet the target availability specification. The results were estimated for the nominal operational mode, when an 800 MeV beam is delivered on the target and for the critical operational mode, when a 600 MeV output beam was incident on the target. The design of a complete accel-erator system is a complex arrangement of a large number of components. To simplify the analysis, a few components were shortlisted and based on their functions, an accelerator model was created. The model is represented in the form of reliability block diagrams. Availability and reliability were estimated for each operational mode. To increase the availa-bility and reliability of the overall accelerator, redundancy of one cavity per section in the superconducting portion of the Linac was introduced.
To reduce operations costs, Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLVS) must include highly reliable robust subsystems which are designed for simple repair access with a simplified servicing infrastructure, and which incorporate expedited decision-making about faults and anomalies. A key component for the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) RLV system used to meet these objectives is System Health Management (SHM). SHM incorporates Vehicle Health Management (VHM), ground processing associated with the vehicle fleet (GVHM), and Ground Infrastructure Health Management (GIHM). The primary objective of SHM is to provide an automated and paperless health decision, maintenance, and logistics system. Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company, is leading the design, development, and integration of the SHM system for RLV and for X-33 (a sub-scale, sub-orbit Advanced Technology Demonstrator). Many critical technologies are necessary to make SHM (and more specifically VHM) practical, reliable, and cost effective. This paper will present the X-33 SHM design which forms the baseline for the RLV SHM, and it will discuss applications of advanced technologies to future RLVs. In addition, this paper will describe a Virtual Design Environment (VDE) which is being developed for RLV. This VDE will allow for system design engineering, as well as program management teams, to accurately and efficiently evaluate system designs, analyze the behavior of current systems, and predict the feasibility of making smooth and cost-efficient transitions from older technologies to newer ones. The RLV SHM design methodology will reduce program costs, decrease total program life-cycle time, and ultimately increase mission success.
Resilience plays an important role in supercomputers by providing correct and efficient operation in case of faults, errors, and failures. Resilience design patterns offer blueprints for effectively applying resilience technologies. Prior work focused on developing initial efficiency and performance models for resilience design patterns. This paper extends it by (1) describing performance, reliability, and availability models for all structural resilience design patterns, (2) providing more detailed models that include flowcharts and state diagrams, and (3) introducing the Resilience Design Pattern Modeling (RDPM) tool that calculates and plots the performance, reliability, and availability metrics of individual patterns and pattern combinations.
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There are novel, horizontally oriented high-temperature gas-cooled micro-reactor (HTGR) designs under consideration because of their portability, simplicity, and reliable operation. These features of the micro-HTGR design can meet the fission battery attributes, such as economic, standardize, installed, unattended and reliable. Although there have been HTGR related safety studies, micro-HTGRs when horizontally oriented are expected to exhibit significantly different thermal physics. During the unavailability of helium circulation, the internal reactor core is designed to cool by block-to-block conduction and radiation, and the reactor vessel surface is cooled by the ambient air. This scenario is anticipated during the transport of the micro-HTGR in a shipping container. The conduction and radiation between the prismatic micro-HTGR blocks in the core can be influenced by variances in the thermal contacts. This work investigated the conduction within a simulated horizontal HTGR core. An experimental setup was used to validate a numerical model. The experimental setup consisted of a hexagonal assembly with scaled prismatic blocks placed within a high-temperature vacuum environment. The gaps between the blocks were well controlled and monitored. The experimental setup was designed in such a way that the temperature variation in the axial direction was minimal, such that the experiment could be observed as a 2D (r, ) heat transfer problem. The pressurized tube was equipped with Infra-Red (IR) transparent windows, and an IR camera was used to capture the spatio-temporal temperature evolution in the hexagonal block assembly during the cooldown experiments. The experimental scenario was computationally modeled with a finite element analysis (FEA) program. Once validated, the computational model was used to investigate the impact of gap conductance on overall decay heat removal. Using a conservative estimate for gap conductance value (100 W/m 2 -K) between the prismatic blocks, there is a negligible increase in temperature observed during decay heat generation.
A preferred Pratt & Whitney conceptual Nuclear Thermal Rocket Engine (NTRE) has been designed based on the fundamental NASA priorities of safety, reliability, cost, and performance. The basic philosophy underlying the design of the XNR2000 is the utilization of the most reliable form of ultrahigh temperature nuclear fuel and development of a core configuration which is optimized for uniform power distribution, operational flexibility, power maneuverability, weight, and robustness. The P&W NTRE system employs a fast spectrum, cermet fueled reactor configured in an expander cycle to ensure maximum operational safety. The cermet fuel form provides retention of fuel and fission products as well as high strength. A high level of confidence is provided by benchmark analysis and independent evaluations.
When designing a product intended to perform a certain function and satisfy some set of criteria, the standard engineering method to assess its ability to perform is to test it. This nearly universal concept works consistently, assuring proper function and generally avoiding or mitigating the consequence of failure to within acceptable limits. What would happen if the product developers were told that they must continue to certify and validate the performance without testing it, that the landscape in which the product must serve its purpose is constantly evolving, and that the product in question is the United States’ nuclear weapons stockpile? This is the position the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) finds itself in; the reliability of the stockpile must be verified without actually testing it to see if it works as intended.
A human mission to Mars will require highly reliable life support systems. Mars life support systems may recycle water and oxygen using systems similar to those on the International Space Station (ISS). However, achieving sufficient reliability is less difficult for ISS than it will be for Mars. If an ISS system has a serious failure, it is possible to provide spare parts, or directly supply water or oxygen, or if necessary bring the crew back to Earth. Life support for Mars must be designed, tested, and improved as needed to achieve high demonstrated reliability. A quantitative reliability goal should be established and used to guide development t. The designers should select reliable components and minimize interface and integration problems. In theory a system can achieve the component-limited reliability, but testing often reveal unexpected failures due to design mistakes or flawed components. Testing should extend long enough to detect any unexpected failure modes and to verify the expected reliability. Iterated redesign and retest may be required to achieve the reliability goal. If the reliability is less than required, it may be improved by providing spare components or redundant systems. The number of spares required to achieve a given reliability goal depends on the component failure rate. If the failure rate is under estimated, the number of spares will be insufficient and the system may fail. If the design is likely to have undiscovered design or component problems, it is advisable to use dissimilar redundancy, even though this multiplies the design and development cost. In the ideal case, a human tended closed system operational test should be conducted to gain confidence in operations, maintenance, and repair. The difficulty in achieving high reliability in unproven complex systems may require the use of simpler, more mature, intrinsically higher reliability systems. The limitations of budget, schedule, and technology may suggest accepting lower and less certain expected reliability. A plan to develop reliable life support is needed to achieve the best possible reliability.
Signal conditioner was designed which can condition dc signals over range of + or - volts. It is lighter, has lower initial and maintenance costs, and higher reliability than conventional discrete circuit designs. System incorporates linear integrated circuits in conjunction with hybrid, thin film circuit technology to achieve high degree of circuit miniaturization.
Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system where it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for assigning uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide a case study example by translating Ground Benign (GB) and Ground Mobile (GM) to the Airborne Uninhabited Fighter (AUF) environment for three electronic components often found in space launch vehicle control systems. The classification method will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need to for more applicable data to reduce uncertainty.
Launch vehicle systems are designed and developed using both heritage and new hardware. Design modifications to the heritage hardware to fit new functional system requirements can impact the applicability of heritage reliability data. Risk estimates for newly designed systems must be developed from generic data sources such as commercially available reliability databases using reliability prediction methodologies, such as those addressed in MIL-HDBK-217F. Failure estimates must be converted from the generic environment to the specific operating environment of the system in which it is used. In addition, some qualification of applicability for the data source to the current system should be made. Characterizing data applicability under these circumstances is crucial to developing model estimations that support confident decisions on design changes and trade studies. This paper will demonstrate a data-source applicability classification method for suggesting epistemic component uncertainty to a target vehicle based on the source and operating environment of the originating data. The source applicability is determined using heuristic guidelines while translation of operating environments is accomplished by applying statistical methods to MIL-HDK-217F tables. The paper will provide one example for assigning environmental factors uncertainty when translating between operating environments for the microelectronic part-type components. The heuristic guidelines will be followed by uncertainty-importance routines to assess the need for more applicable data to reduce model uncertainty.
The performance characteristics and reliability of the active oscillator atomic hydrogen maser depend upon oscillation parameters which characterize the interaction region of the maser, the resonant cavity and atom storage bulb assembly. With particular attention to use of the cavity frequency switching servo (1) to reduce cavity pulling, it is important to maintain high oscillation level, high atomic beam flux utilization efficiency, small spin exchange parameter and high cavity quality factor. It is also desirable to have a small and rigid cavity and bulb structure and to minimize the cavity temperature sensitivity. Curves for a novel hydrogen maser cavity configuration which is partially loaded with a quartz dielectric cylinder and show the relationships between cavity length, cavity diameter, bulb size, dielectric thickness, cavity quality factor, filling factor and cavity frequency temperature coefficient are presented. The results are discussed in terms of improvement in maser performance resulting from particular design choices.