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At least 1,171 records · Page 65

statemodify: a Python framework to facilitate accessible exploratory modeling for discovering drought vulnerabilities

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is experiencing an unprecedented water shortage crisis brought upon by a combination of factors arising from interactions across the region’s coupled human and natural systems. Allocation of water to the seven states that rely on the Colorado River was settled in the Colorado River Compact of 1922 during a period now known to be characterized by atypically high flows (Christensen et al., 2004). Since then, aridification due to anthropogenic-driven warming has steadily reduced the overall water supply available in the basin, with a 10% decrease in the river’s flow occurring over just the past two decades (Bass et al., 2023). The river is further strained by increasing demands associated with a growing population and diverse multi-sectoral demands. Navigating these challenges also requires accounting for the complex prior appropriation water rights system governing water allocation across the region’s diverse users.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

THEMIS: A Parameter Estimation Framework for the Event Horizon Telescope

The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) provides the unprecedented ability to directly resolve the structure and dynamics of black hole emission regions on scales smaller than their horizons. This has the potential to critically probe the mechanisms by which black holes accrete and launch outflows, and the structure of supermassive black hole spacetimes. However, accessing this information is a formidable analysis challenge for two reasons. First, the EHT natively produces a variety of data types that encode information about the image structure in nontrivial ways; these are subject to a variety of systematic effects associated with very long baseline interferometry and are supplemented by a wide variety of auxiliary data on the primary EHT targets from decades of other observations. Second, models of the emission regions and their interaction with the black hole are complex, highly uncertain, and computationally expensive to construct. As a result, the scientific utilization of EHT observations requires a flexible, extensible, and powerful analysis framework. We present such a framework, Themis, which defines a set of interfaces between models, data, and sampling algorithms that facilitates future development. We describe the design and currently existing components of Themis, how Themis has been validated thus far, and present additional analyses made possible by Themis that illustrate its capabilities. Importantly, we demonstrate that Themis is able to reproduce prior EHT analyses, extend these, and do so in a computationally efficient manner that can efficiently exploit modern high-performance computing facilities. Themis has already been used extensively in the scientific analysis and interpretation of the first EHT observations of M87.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GCAM-USA: IM3 Phase 2 Official Simulations

Overview GCAM-USA simulates 21st century energy-water-land interactions in global regions with sub-national detail in the United States (US). The IM3 project is focused on US multisector dynamics and has created eight GCAM-USA simulations by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight GCAM-USA simulations are named: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 Detailed Assumptions The SSPs describe alternative socioeconomic futures and their implications for both the US and global environmental challenges. As implemented in GCAM-USA, the primary difference between SSP3 and SSP5 in the US is their population growth projections, with SSP3 foreseeing lower growth and SSP5 projecting higher growth. The four climate projections explore moderate (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas emission (GHG) trajectories, each with a hotter and cooler climate variation based on the range of global climate model simulations in CMIP6s. These four climate projections are used in precursor models to develop climate impacts on building heating and cooling degree-hours, water availability, and agricultural yields that are provided as inputs to GCAM-USA. GCAM-USA reproduces the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 GHG emissions trajectories consistent with each climate projection, using dynamic carbon prices to achieve RCP4.5. When the four climate projections are combined with the two SSP projections, the resulting eight scenarios allow GCAM-USA to explore how a wide, yet plausible, range of climate and socioeconomic impacts affects the interconnected energy, water, and land systems across the contiguous United States. Technical Details IM3 uses a version of GCAM-USA v5.3 that has an enhanced electricity sector and an updated data system needed to represent regional to local scale dynamics.

IM3↗

Primary gamma rays

Within this galaxy, cosmic rays reveal their presence in interstellar space and probably in source regions by their interactions with interstellar matter which lead to gamma rays with a very characteristic energy spectrum. From the study of the intensity of the high energy gamma radiation as a function of galactic longitude, it is already clear that cosmic rays are almost certainly not uniformly distributed in the galaxy and are not concentrated in the center of the galaxy. The galactic cosmic rays appear to be tied to galactic structural features, presumably by the galactic magnetic fields which are in turn held by the matter in the arm segments and the clouds. On the extragalactic scale, it is now possible to say that cosmic rays are not universal at the density seen near the earth. The diffuse celestial gamma ray spectrum that is observed presents the interesting possibility of cosmological studies and possible evidence for a residual universal cosmic ray density, which is much lower than the present galactic cosmic ray density.

Fichtel, C. E.↗

Primary gamma-rays

Within our Galaxy, cosmic rays can reveal their presence in interstellar space and probably in source regions by their interactions with interstellar matter which lead to gamma-rays with a very characteristic energy spectrum. From the study of the intensity of the high energy gamma radiation as a function of galactic longitude, it is already clear that cosmic rays are almost certainly not uniformly distributed in the Galaxy and are not concentrated in the center of the Galaxy. The galactic cosmic rays appear to be tied to galactic structural features, presumably by the galactic magnetic fields which are in turn held by the matter in the arm segments and the clouds. On the extra-galactic scale, it is now possible to say that cosmic rays are probably not at the density seen near the earth.

Fichtel, C. E.↗

On sound transmission into a thin cylindrical shell under 'flight conditions'

A mathematical model for sound transmission into a thin cylindrical shell is used to study sound transmission under flight conditions, i.e., under conditions of external air flow past a pressurized cylinder at flight altitude. Numerical results for different incidence angles are presented for a typical narrow-bodied jet in cruising flight at 10,660 m with interior pressure at 2440 m. A comparison is made between no-flow sound transmission at standard conditions on the ground to sound transmission under flight conditions. It is shown that at M = 0, the cylinder transmission loss (TL) has dips at the cylinder ring frequency (fR) and the critical frequency (fc) for a flat panel of same material and thickness as shell. Between fR and fc, cylinder TL follows a mass-law behavior. Flow provides a modest increase in TL in the mass-law region, and strongly interacts with the cylinder resonances below fR.

Koval, L. R.↗

An empirical model for inverted-velocity-profile jet noise prediction

It is known that the noise generated by inverted-velocity-profile coaxial (without center plug) and coannular (with center plug) nozzles should be modeled as the combined contributions of various source regions and noise generation mechanisms. In this paper, an empirical noise-prediction model is described which considers the noise generated by two jet-mixing regions and two potential regions of shock/turbulence interaction. Results calculated from the empirical model are compared with model-scale experimental data for static and simulated flight conditions. These comparisons are made for cases where both streams are subsonic, where the outer stream is supersonic with the inner stream subsonic, and where both streams are supersonic. The cases considered cover a range of inner-to-outer-stream area ratios and include both coaxial and coannular nozzles. It is shown that the model gives reasonable predictions of absolute noise spectra and even better predictions of incremental changes.

Stone, J. R.↗

Interaction of compressor rotor blade wake with wall boundary layer/vortex in the end-wall region

This paper reports the experimental study of the three-dimensional characteristics of the mean velocity of the rotor wake inside the annulus- and hub-wall boundary layers. The measurements were taken with a rotating three-sensor hot wire behind the rotor. This set of measurements probably represents the first set of comprehensive measurements taken inside the annulus- and hub-wall boundary layers. The wake was surveyed at several radial locations inside the boundary layer region and at several axial locations. Interaction of the wake with the annulus-wall boundary layer, secondary flow, tip-leakage flow, and the trailing vortex system results in slower decay and larger width of the wake. The presence of a strong vortex and its merger with the wake is also observed. The end-wall boundary layers and the secondary flow were found to have a substantial effect on both the decay characteristics and the profile of the wake. These and other measurements are reported and interpreted in this paper.

Lakshminarayana, B.↗

The depletion of calcium in the Rho Ophiuchi cloud

Data on the interstellar Ca II H and K lines toward HD 147889, a star deeply embedded in the rho Ophiuchi dark cloud, were obtained at the Mauna Kea Observatory of the University of Hawaii, using a multi-anode microchannel array (MAMA) detector. An upper limit on the Ca II column density of 1.7 x 10 to the 11th/sq cm was derived, which, together with ionization considerations and an estimated lower limit on the total hydrogen column density, implies that the calcium-to-hydrogen ratio in this line of sight is 0.00000795 or less, relative to the solar value. The logarithmic depletion is up to -5.10, the largest yet measured, and implies that gas-grain interaction in this region has proceeded to a much greater degree than is typical of diffuse clouds.

Snow, T. P.↗

Southern ocean sea-ice morphology and kinematics

A pilot satellite experiment is described which would employ shuttle imaging radar (SIR) to determine the applicability of imaging radar for the description of sea ice type and movement. The experimental objectives, design, and anticipated results are discussed. The results are expected to constitute an important contribution to the understanding of the role of sea ice in air-sea interactions in polar regions. It is proposed that shuttle photography, thematic mapper imagery, and SIR data be utilized in this remote sensing project.

Carsey, F.↗

Investigation of the enhanced spatial density of submicron lunar ejecta between L values 1.2 and 3.0 in the earth's magnetosphere: Theory

Initial results from the measurement conducted by the dust particle experiment on the lunar orbiting satellite Lunar Explorer 35 (LE 35) were reported with the data interpreted as indicating that the moon is a significant source of micrometeroids. Primary sporadic and stream meteoroids impacting the surface of the moon at hypervelocity was proposed as the source of micron and submicron particles that leave the lunar craters with velocities sufficient to escape the moon's gravitational sphere of influence. No enhanced flux of lunar ejecta with masses greater than a nanogram was detected by LE 35 or the Lunar Orbiters. Hypervelocity meteoroid simulation experiments concentrating on ejecta production combined with extensive analyses of the orbital dynamics of micron and submicron lunar ejecta in selenocentric, cislunar, and geocentric space have shown that a pulse of these lunar ejecta, with a time correlation relative to the position of the moon relative to the earth, intercepts the earth's magnetopause surface (EMPs). As shown, a strong reason exists for expecting a significant enhancement of submicron dust particles in the region of the magnetosphere between L values of 1.2 and 3.0. This is the basis for the proposal of a series of experiments to investigate the enhancement or even trapping of submicron lunar ejecta in this region. The subsequent interaction of this mass with the upper-lower atmosphere of the earth and possible geophysical effects can then be studied.

Alexander, W. M.↗

Studies of the lower thermosphere using a tethered satellite

Investigation of a proposed facility and review of the Atmosphere Explorer C (AE-C) satellite experience is presented. In order to properly take advantage of plans to operate in the lower thermosphere, it is necessary to have some foreknowledge of the natural environment in this region, how vehicles interact with the natural environment, and how instruments must be designed and built to operate in this environment. Some of the fundamental questions to be addressed by such a mission are reviewed as well as the AE-C satellite experience.

Torr, Marsha R.↗

SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes): A Tropical Ozonesonde-Radiosonde Network for the Atmospheric Community

A lack of sounding data has limited the accuracy of ozone satellite retrievals in the tropics and our understanding of chemical-dynamical interactions in a region strongly influenced by natural variability and anthropogenic activity. In 1998, NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center, NOAA's Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) and a team of international sponsors established the SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes) project to address the gap in tropical ozone soundings. SHADOZ augments launches at selected sites and provides a public archive of ozonesonde and radiosonde data from twelve tropical and subtropical stations at http://croc.gsfc.nasa.gov/shadoz. Instrumentation, data and a summary of the first scientific findings from SHADOZ are presented.

Thompson, Anne M.↗

Structure, Function, Self-Assembly and Origin of Simple Membrane Proteins

Integral membrane proteins perform such essential cellular functions as transport of ions, nutrients and waste products across cell walls, transduction of environmental signals, regulation of cell fusion, recognition of other cells, energy capture and its conversion into high-energy compounds. In fact, 30-40% of genes in modem organisms codes for membrane proteins. Although contemporary membrane proteins or their functional assemblies can be quite complex, their transmembrane fragments are usually remarkably simple. The most common structural motif for these fragments is a bundle of alpha-helices, but occasionally it could be a beta-barrel. In a series of molecular dynamics computer simulations we investigated self-organizing properties of simple membrane proteins based on these structural motifs. Specifically, we studied folding and insertion into membranes of short, nonpolar or amphiphatic peptides. We also investigated glycophorin A, a peptide that forms sequence-specific dimers, and a transmembrane aggregate of four identical alpha-helices that forms an efficient and selective voltage-gated proton channel was investigated. Many peptides are attracted to water-membrane interfaces. Once at the interface, nonpolar peptides spontaneously fold to a-helices. Whenever the sequence permits, peptides that contain both polar and nonpolar amino also adopt helical structures, in which polar and nonpolar amino acid side chains are immersed in water and membrane, respectively. Specific identity of side chains is less important. Helical peptides at the interface could insert into the membrane and adopt a transmembrane conformation. However, insertion of a single helix is unfavorable because polar groups in the peptide become completely dehydrated upon insertion. The unfavorable free energy of insertion can be regained by spontaneous association of peptides in the membrane. The first step in this process is the formation of dimers, although the most common are aggregates of 4-7 helices. The helices could arrange themselves such that they formed pores capable of transporting ions and small molecules across membranes. Stability of transmembrane aggregates of simple proteins is often only marginal and, therefore, it can be regulated by environmental signals or small sequence modifications in the region of interhelical interactions. A key step in the earliest evolution of membrane proteins was the emergence of selectivity for specific substrates. Many channels could become selective if one or only a few properly chosen amino acids are properly placed along the channel, acting as filters or gates. This is a convenient evolutionary solution because it does not require imposing conditions on the whole sequence.

Pohorille, Andrew↗

NASA GEOS-3/TRMM Re-analysis: Capturing Observed Tropical Rainfall Variability in Global Analysis for Climate Research

Understanding climate variability over a wide range of space-time scales requires a comprehensive description of the earth system. Global analyses produced by a fixed assimilation system (i.e., re-analyses) - as their quality continues to improve - have the potential of providing a vital tool for meeting this challenge. But at the present time, the usefulness of re-analyses is limited by uncertainties in such basic fields as clouds, precipitation, and evaporation - especially in the tropics, where observations are relatively sparse. Analyses of the tropics have long been shown to be sensitive to. the treatment of cloud precipitation processes, which remains a major source of uncertainty in current models. Yet, for many climate studies it is crucial that analyses can accurately reproduce the observed rainfall intensity and variability since a small error of 1 mm/d in surface rain translates into an error of approx. 30 W/sq m in energy (latent heat) flux. Currently, discrepancies between the observed and analyzed monthly-mean rain rates averaged to 100 km x 100 km resolution can exceed 4 mm/d (or 120 W/sq m ), compared to uncertainties in surface radiative fluxes of approx. 10-20 W/sq m . Improving precipitation in analyses would reduce a major source of uncertainty in the global energy budget. Uncertainties in tropical precipitation have also been a major impediment in understanding how the tropics interact with other regions, including the remote response to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability on interannual time scales, the influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and monsoons on intraseasonal time scales. A global analysis that can replicate the observed precipitation variability together with physically consistent estimates of other atmospheric variables provides the key to breaking this roadblock. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been exploring the use of satellite-based microwave rainfall measurements in improving global analyses and has recently produced a multi-year, 1 x 1 TRMM re-analysis , which assimilates 6-hourly TMI and SSM/I surface rain rates over tropical oceans using a ID variational continuous assimilation (VCA) procedure in the GEOS-3 global data assimilation system. The analysis period extends from 1 November 1997 through 3 1 December 2002. The goal is to produce a multi-year global analysis that is dynamically consistent with available tropical precipitation observations for the community to assess its utility in climate applications and identify areas for further improvements. A distinct feature of the GEOS-3RRMh4 re-analysis is that its precipitation analysis is not derived from a short-term forecast (as done in most operational systems) but is given by a time- continuous model integration constrained by precipitation observations within a 6-h analysis window, while the wind, temperature, and pressure fields are allowed to directly respond to the improved precipitation and associated latent heating structures within the same analysis window. In this talk, I will assess the impact VCA precipitation assimilation on analyses of climate signals ranging from a few weeks to interannual time scales and compare results against other operational and reanalysis products.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

PACE: How One NASA Mission Aligns With the United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Shot #2)

The PACE satellite observatory will follow a Sun synchronous, polar orbit at an altitude of 676.5 km with a local 13:00 Equatorial crossing time. Its payload consists of three instruments, a primary hyperspectral imaging radiometer being built at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and two multispectral, multiangle polarimeters, the combination of which advances far beyond heritage capabilities. The Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) offers one-day global coverage with a ground sample distance of 1 km2 at nadir. As described in this OceanShot, this leap in technology will enable improved understanding of aquatic ecosystems and biogeochemistry, as well as provide new information on phytoplankton community composition and improved detection of algal blooms. OCI will be complemented by two small multi-angle polarimeters with spectral ranges that span the visible to near infrared spectral region. When sunlight interacts with clouds or aerosols, it comes away from that interaction changed. By measuring changes in how reflected light oscillates within a geometric plane (i.e., its viewing angle-specific polarization), we can infer useful properties of the clouds or aerosols. This information is crucial to deciphering the way sunlight is reflected and absorbed by our planet and how aerosols affect cloud formation. The polarimeters include the Spectro-polarimeter for Planetary Exploration (SPEXone) and the Hyper Angular Research Polarimeter (HARP2), both of which will significantly improve aerosol and cloud characterizations and provide opportunities for novel ocean color atmospheric correction. (Figure 3). These instruments offer complementary capabilities: SPEXone is hyperspectral, multiangular, and narrow swath to support advanced atmospheric aerosol characterizations, whereas HARP2 is multispectral, hyper-angular, and wide swath to advance cloud property retrievals. In total, the combined PACE instrument suite will revolutionize studies of global biogeochemistry, carbon cycles, and air–sea exchanges in the ocean–atmosphere system.

Ocean color↗