statemodify: a Python framework to facilitate accessible exploratory modeling for discovering drought vulnerabilities

Abstract

The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is experiencing an unprecedented water shortage crisis brought upon by a combination of factors arising from interactions across the region’s coupled human and natural systems. Allocation of water to the seven states that rely on the Colorado River was settled in the Colorado River Compact of 1922 during a period now known to be characterized by atypically high flows (Christensen et al., 2004). Since then, aridification due to anthropogenic-driven warming has steadily reduced the overall water supply available in the basin, with a 10% decrease in the river’s flow occurring over just the past two decades (Bass et al., 2023). The river is further strained by increasing demands associated with a growing population and diverse multi-sectoral demands. Navigating these challenges also requires accounting for the complex prior appropriation water rights system governing water allocation across the region’s diverse users.