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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment for the ASCENDS Satellite Mission

Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1 degree x 1 degree, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50 percent, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 micron candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 micron wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from 40 percent to 75 percent across our four instrument design cases, and from 65 percent to 85 percent for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr-1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2026

Scaling open-weight large language models for hydropower regulatory information extraction: A systematic analysis

Information extraction from regulatory and technical documents using large language models (LLMs) involves practical trade-offs between extraction quality and computational cost. We evaluate eight open-weight LLMs spanning 0.6B–70B parameters on hydropower licensing documents and report deployment-oriented evidence under a unified extraction schema and evaluation protocol. Across the model set, we observe clear scale-dependent trends in both baseline extraction quality and the effectiveness of reflective reasoning (self-checking) under our fixed-prompt, no-augmentation setting. Mid-scale models often provide a favorable balance of accuracy and efficiency, whereas the smallest models show limited or inconsistent gains from the reasoning variants tested. Larger models achieve the highest overall F1 scores but incur substantially greater compute and infrastructure requirements. We further find that reliability failure modes can distort conventional metrics in this domain: in particular, high recall can coincide with systematic extraction errors when models fabricate values for fields that are absent from the source text, underscoring the importance of conservative null handling and evidence-grounded evaluation. Overall, our study provides a reproducible resource–performance comparison for open-weight LLM-based extraction in hydropower regulatory documentation and offers practical guidance for model selection under different deployment constraints.

Evaluation protocol↗
NASA NTRS1994

Mean sea surface height of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current from Geosat data: Method and application

The mean sea surface height across the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) has been reconstructed from height variability measured by the Geosat altimeter without assuming prior knowledge of the geoid. For this study, an automated technique has been developed to estimate mean sea surface height for each satellite ground track using a meandering Gaussian jet model, and errors have been estimated using Monte Carlo simulation. The results are objectively mapped to produce a picture of the mean Subantarctic and Polar Fronts, which together comprise the major components of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The meandering jet model explains between 40% and 70% of the height variance along the jet axes. The results show that the fronts are substantially steered by topography and that the jets have an average Gaussian width of about 44 km in the meridional direction and meander about 75 km to either side of their mean locations. The average height difference across the Subantarctic Front (SAF) is 0.7 m and across the Polar Front (PF) 0.6 m. The mean widths of the fronts are correlated with the size of the baroclinic Rossby radius.

Gille, Sarah T.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Precise tracking of the Magellan and Pioneer Venusorbiters by same-beam interferometry. Part 1: Dataaccuracy analysis

Simultaneous tracking of two spacecraft in orbit about a distant planet by two widely separated Earth-based radio antennas provides more-accurate positioning information than can be obtained by tracking each spacecraft separately. A demonstration of this tracking technique, referred to as same-beam interferometry (SBI), is currently being done using the Magellan and Pioneer 12 orbiters at Venus. Signals from both spacecraft fall within the same beamwidth of the Deep Space Station antennas. The plane-of-sky position difference between spacecraft is precisely determined by doubly differenced phase measurements. This radio metric measurement naturally complements line-of-sight Doppler. Data was first collected from Magellan and Pioneer 12 on August 11-12, 1990, shortly after Magellan was inserted into Venus orbit. Data were subsequently acquired in February and April 1991, providing a total of 34 hours of same-beam radio metric observables. Same-beam radio metric residuals have been analyzed and compared with model measurement error predictions. The predicted error is dominated by solar plasma fluctuations. The rms of the residuals is less than predicted by about 25 percent for 5-min averages. The shape of the spectrum computed from residuals is consistent with that derived from a model of solar plasma fluctuations. This data type can greatly aid navigation of a second spacecraft when the first is well-known in its orbit.

Border, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact of Flow-Dependent Error Correlations and Tropospheric Chemistry on Assimilated Ozone

The presentation compares different versions of a global three-dimensional ozone data assimilation system developed at NASA's Data Assimilation Office. The Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet/2 (SBUV/2) total and partial ozone column retrievals are the sole data assimilated in all of the experiments presented. We study the impact of changing the forecast error covariance model from a version assuming static correlations with a one that captures a short-term Lagrangian evolution of those correlations. This is further combined with a study of the impact of neglecting the tropospheric ozone production, loss and dry deposition rates, which are obtained from the Harvard GEOS-CHEM model. We compare statistical characteristics of the assimilated data and the results of validation against independent observations, obtained from WMO balloon-borne sondes and the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) III instrument. Experiments show that allowing forecast error correlations to evolve with the flow results in positive impact on assimilated ozone within the regions where data were not assimilated, particularly at high latitudes in both hemispheres. On the other hand, the main sensitivity to tropospheric chemistry is in the Tropics and sub-Tropics. The best agreement between the assimilated ozone and the in-situ sonde data is in the experiment using both flow-dependent error covariances and tropospheric chemistry.

Wargan, K.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Application of artificial neural networks in hydrological modeling: A case study of runoff simulation of a Himalayan glacier basin

The simulation of runoff from a Himalayan Glacier basin using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is presented. The performance of the ANN model is found to be superior to the Energy Balance Model and the Multiple Regression model. The RMS Error is used as the figure of merit for judging the performance of the three models, and the RMS Error for the ANN model is the latest of the three models. The ANN is faster in learning and exhibits excellent system generalization characteristics.

Buch, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

DAO's Next Generation Physical-Space/Finite-Volume Data Assimilation System: Formulation and Initial Evaluation

The Physical-space/Finite-volume Data Assimilation System (fvDAS) is the next generation global atmospheric data assimilation system in development at the Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. It is based on a new finite-volume general circulation model jointly developed by NASA and NCAR, and on the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) developed at the DAO. In this talk we will describe the general system formulation, the adaptive quality control and general aspects of the error covariance modeling. The NASA-NCAR GCM is a completely new model which replaces the CEOs GCM used in the previous GEOS-1/2/3 Data Assimilation systems. A particular configuration of adaptive Statistical Quality Control and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS) are currently implemented in DAO's operational Data Assimilation System. However, the unique finite-volume formulation of the NASA-NCAR GCM, combined with the generality of the observation-space formulation of PSAS, provides for a very simple and accurate model-analysis interface. The system assimilates a variety of conventional and satellite observations. In particular, TOVS Level 1B radiances are assimilated using a 1-D variational scheme, both in clear sky and cloudy conditions. Computationally, the fvDAS runs approximately 10 times faster than the operational GEOS-Terra system. We will show that the next-generation fvDAS has much improved observation-minus-6hr forecast (O-F) statistics, as well as 5-day forecast skills. Top of the atmosphere radiation fields are in closer agreement with CERES measurements, with realistic precipitation and moisture fields. We will also show that the finite-volume formulation of the fvDAS produce assimilated fields which are more suitable for driving constituent transport models.

daSilva, A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Non-exercise Estimation of V02max Using a Dichotomy of Meeting or Not Meeting DHHS Physical Activity Recommendations

The physical activity guidelines (PAG) established by the US Dept. of Health and Human Services in 2008 is consistent with a rating of >/= 6 on the 11-point NASA Physical Activity Status Scale (PASS). Wier, et. al. developed non-exercise models for estimating VO2(sub max) from a combination of PASS, age, gender and either waist girth (WG) (R = 0.810, SEE= 4.799 ml/kg/min), %Fat (R = 0. 817, SEE = 4.716 ml/kg/min) or BMI (R = 0.802, SEE = 4.900 ml . kg-1. min -1 ). PURPOSE: to develop non-exercise models to estimate VO2max from age, gender, body composition (WG, %Fat, BMI) and PASS dichotomized at meets or does not meet the PAG (PAG-PASS), and to compare the accuracy of the PAG-PASS models with the models using the 11-point PASS. METHODS: 2417 men and 384 women were measured for VO2max by indirect calorimetry (RER >1.1); age (yr), gender by M = 1, W = 0; WG at the umbilicus; %fat by skin-folds, BMI by weight (kg) divided by height squared (m 2 ) , and PAGPASS by PASS < 6 = 0 and =/> 6 = 1. RESULTS: Three models were developed by multiple regression to estimate VO2(sub max) from age, gender, PAG-PASS and either WG (R = 0.790, SEE=5.019 ml/kg/min), %FAT (R= 0.080, SEE = 4.915 ml/kg/min) or BMI (R = 0.777, SEE = 5.162ml/kg/min). Cross-validation by the PRESS technique confirmed these statistics. Simple correlations between measured VO2(sub max) and estimates from the PAG-PASS models with WG, %Fat and BMI were 0.790, 0.800 and 0.777, minimally different from the correlations obtained with the PASS models (0.810, 0.810, and 0.802). PAG-PASS and PASS model constant errors were also similar: < 1 ml/kg/min for subsamples of age, gender, PASS and for VO2(sub max) between 30 and 50 ml/kg/min (70% of the sample) but > 1 ml/kg/min for VO2(sub max) <30 and >50 ml/kg/min. CONCLUSIONS: Non-exercise models using the combined effects of age, gender, body composition and the dichotomized PAG-PASS provide estimates of VO2(sub max) that are accurate for most adults, and the accuracy of these models are similar to previously published models using the 11-point PASS.

Wier, Larry T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Fast Visible-Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Simulator for Cloudy Atmopheres

A fast instrument simulator is developed to simulate the observations made in cloudy atmospheres by the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). The correlated k-distribution (CKD) technique is used to compute the transmissivity of absorbing atmospheric gases. The bulk scattering properties of ice clouds used in this study are based on the ice model used for the MODIS Collection 6 ice cloud products. Two fast radiative transfer models based on pre-computed ice cloud look-up-tables are used for the VIIRS solar and infrared channels. The accuracy and efficiency of the fast simulator are quantify in comparison with a combination of the rigorous line-by-line (LBLRTM) and discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) models. Relative errors are less than 2 for simulated TOA reflectances for the solar channels and the brightness temperature differences for the infrared channels are less than 0.2 K. The simulator is over three orders of magnitude faster than the benchmark LBLRTM+DISORT model. Furthermore, the cloudy atmosphere reflectances and brightness temperatures from the fast VIIRS simulator compare favorably with those from VIIRS observations.

VIIRS Instrument Simulator↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optial Experiments and Model Validation of Perturbed Starshade Designs

Starshades are a leading technology to enable the direct detection and spectroscopic characterization of Earth- like exoplanets. Critical starshade technologies are currently being advanced through the S5 Project and at the Princeton starshade testbed. We report on the status of Milestone 2 of the S5 Project, optical model validation. We present results from optical experiments of starshades with intentional perturbations built into their design. These perturbations are representative of the type of perturbations possible in a flight design and serve as points of validation for dffraction models and error budgets. We show experimental results for two perturbed shapes, a mask with all petals shifted radially outward by 5 um and a mask with shallow sine waves built into two petals. We compare these data to outputs of the optical model and demonstrate better than 25% agreement. We also present images taken in crossed polarized light and use those data to constrain physical parameters of the optical edge. Bringing in previously obtained results for other perturbed shapes, we show an agreement between experiment and model of better than 25% and argue that this satisfies the Milestone 2 criteria.

Galvin, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model-data comparison incorporating theoretical uncertainties

Accurate comparisons between theoretical models and experimental data are critical for scientific progress. However, inferred physical model parameters can vary significantly with the chosen physics model, highlighting the importance of properly accounting for theoretical uncertainties. In this Letter, we present a Bayesian framework that explicitly quantifies these uncertainties by statistically modeling theory errors, guided by qualitative knowledge of a theory’s varying reliability across the input domain. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach using two systems: a simple ball drop experiment and multi-stage heavy-ion simulations. In both cases incorporating model discrepancy leads to improved parameter estimates, with systematic improvements observed as additional experimental observables are integrated.

Bayesian methods↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploring Hydrologic Model Process Connectivity at the Continental Scale Through an Information Theory Approach

Exploring water fluxes between hydrological model (HM) components is essential to assess and improve model realism. Many classical metrics for HM diagnosis rely solely on streamflow and hence provide limited insights into model performance across processes. This study applies an information theory measure known as “transfer entropy” (TE) to systematically quantify the transfer of information among major HM components. To test and demonstrate the benefits of TE, we use the Framework for Understanding Structural Errors (FUSE) model to mimic and compare four commonly used HM structures, VIC, PRMS, SACRAMENTO, and TOPMODEL, across 671 catchments spanning a variety of hydrologic regimes in the conterminous United States. We explore connections between HM components and catchment landscape characteristics (e.g., climate, topography, soil, and vegetation) and characterize their nonlinear associations using distance correlation and Spearman correlation coefficients. Our results indicate that while the information transferred from precipitation to runoff is similar across model structures (likely as a result of calibration), the information transferred among other components can vary significantly from a FUSE structure to another. We find that aridity, precipitation duration and frequency, snow fraction, mean elevation, forest area, and leaf area index are often significantly associated with TE between the main HM components. Here, we propose that the presence of meaningful nonlinear associations can be used to diagnose process representation in HMs. Our results highlight the necessity to enhance the conventional streamflow-only calibration approach for a more realistic representation of water dynamics in the models.

large-sample hydrology↗
NASA NTRS2016

Solar Probe Plus: Unique Navigation Modeling Challenges

The Solar Probe Plus (SPP) mission is preparing to launch in 2018, and will directly investigate the outer atmosphere of our star. At 9.86 solar radii, SPP must operate in an unexplored regime. The environment and aspects of the mission design present some unique challenges for navigation, particularly in terms of modeling the dynamics. Non-gravitational force models, unique to this mission, are given with analytical expressions. For each of these models (and error sources), a maximum bound on the force perturbation magnitude is quantified numerically. Additionally, the effect of charged particles on radiometric observables is discussed, along with methods being employed to pre-process the measurements. This survey is an overview of unique modeling employed by SPP navigation, but also a reference for future missions traveling near the Sun.

Jones, Drew Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1983

Analysis of Subpixel Registration Accuracy

Geometric and probabilistic models for subpixel accuracy are developed. The geometric models bound the error in offset estimation using the pixels in an observed digital straight line. One probabilistic model bounds the estimate of error offset for continuous images. The other model bounds the error for discrete images given that one is in the correct pixel.

Lavine, D.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1989

High-precision radiometric tracking for planetary approach and encounter in the inner solar system

The benefits of improved radiometric tracking data have been studied for planetary approach within the inner Solar System using the Mars Rover Sample Return trajectory as a model. It was found that the benefit of improved data to approach and encounter navigation was highly dependent on the a priori uncertainties assumed for several non-estimated parameters, including those for frame-tie, Earth orientation, troposphere delay, and station locations. With these errors at their current levels, navigational performance was found to be insensitive to enhancements in data accuracy. However, when expected improvements in these errors are modeled, performance with current-accuracy data significantly improves, with substantial further improvements possible with enhancements in data accuracy.

Christensen, C. S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A data-driven multiscale model for reactive wetting simulations

Here, we describe a data-driven, multiscale technique to model reactive wetting of a silver–aluminum alloy on a Kovar™ (Fe-Ni-Co alloy) surface. We employ molecular dynamics simulations to elucidate the dependence of surface tension and wetting angle on the drop’s composition and temperature. A design of computational experiments is used to efficiently generate training data of surface tension and wetting angle from a limited number of molecular dynamics simulations. The simulation results are used to parameterize models of the material’s wetting properties and compute the uncertainty in the models due to limited data. The data-driven models are incorporated into an engineering-scale (continuum) model of a silver–aluminum sessile drop on a Kovar™ substrate. Model predictions of the wetting angle are compared with experiments of pure silver spreading on Kovar™ to quantify the model-form errors introduced by the limited training data versus the simplifications inherent in the molecular dynamics simulations. The paper presents innovations in the determination of “convergence” of noisy MD simulations before they are used to extract the wetting angle and surface tension, and the construction of their models which approximate physio-chemical processes that are left unresolved by the engineering-scale model. Together, these constitute a multiscale approach that integrates molecular-scale information into continuum scale models.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1999

The GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System: Design and Validation

An ozone data assimilation system has been developed at the Data Assimilation Office of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center to provide global three-dimensional analyzed ozone mixing ratio and total column ozone. The Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) total column ozone and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) or SBUV/2 partial ozone profile data are assimilated. The analyzed winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) drive the ozone transport. Following every transport model timestep, the model prediction is combined with the observations using a global, physical-space based, statistical analysis scheme. Due to the smaller size of the ozone system than that of a global meteorological data assimilation system, new statistical analysis methodology, including anisotropic and flow-dependent forecast error correlation models, can be implemented and tested in the ozone system more easily. Sample results from the winter 1992 validation period are presented. There is a close agreement between the analyzed fields and the independent observations from ozone sondes and the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE).

Stajner, I.↗