Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “distributed state estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,089 records · Page 61
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)

Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine learning method for enforcing variable independence in background estimation with LHC data: ABCDisCoTEC

A novel solution is presented for the problem of estimating the backgrounds of a signal search using observed data while simultaneously maximizing the sensitivity of the search to the signal. The 'ABCD method' provides a reliable framework for background estimation by partitioning events into one signal-enhanced region (A) and three background-enhanced control regions (B, C, and D) via two smoothly varying, statistically independent variables. In practice, even slight correlations between the two variables can significantly undermine the method's performance. Thus, choosing appropriate variables by hand can present a formidable challenge, especially when background and signal differ only subtly. To address this issue, the ABCD with distance correlation (ABCDisCo) method was developed to construct two learned variables via a neural network trained to provide strong signal-background discrimination with small values of the distance correlation (DisCo) measure between the two learned variables. However, relying solely on minimizing the DisCo can result in learned variables that may not have distributions of background events that are smoothly varying and localized at extreme values, as necessary for the validity of the background estimation. The ABCDisCo training enhanced with closure (ABCDisCoTEC) method is introduced to solve this issue by directly minimizing the nonclosure, expressed as a dedicated differentiable loss term. This extended method is applied to a data set of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the CMS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. Additionally, given the complexity of the minimization problem with constraints on multiple loss terms, the modified differential method of multipliers is applied and shown to greatly improve the stability and robustness of the ABCDisCoTEC method, compared to grid search hyperparameter optimization procedures.

Hayrapetyan, Aram [Yerevan Phys. Inst.]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 6 results: Clustering redshifts and importance sampling of self-organized-maps 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations for 3 × 2 ⁢pt samples

This work is part of a series establishing the redshift framework for the 3 × 2 ⁢pt analysis of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6). For DES Y6, photometric redshift distributions are estimated using self-organizing maps (SOMs), calibrated with spectroscopic and many-band photometric data. To overcome limitations from color-redshift degeneracies and incomplete spectroscopic coverage, we enhance this approach by incorporating clustering-based redshift constraints (clustering-z, or WZ) from angular cross-correlations with BOSS and eBOSS galaxies and eBOSS quasar samples. We define a WZ likelihood and apply importance sampling to a large ensemble of SOM-derived 𝑛⁡(𝑧) realizations, selecting those consistent with the clustering measurements to produce a posterior sample for each lens and source bin. The analysis uses angular scales corresponding to 1.5–5 Mpc to optimize signal-to-noise ratio while mitigating modeling uncertainties and marginalizes over redshift-dependent galaxy bias and other systematics informed by the N-body simulation CARDINAL . While a sparser spectroscopic reference sample limits WZ constraining power at 𝑧 >1.1, particularly for source bins, we demonstrate that combining SOM with WZ improves redshift accuracy and enhances the overall cosmological constraining power of DES Y6. As a result, we estimate an improvement in 𝑆 8 of approximately 10% for cosmic shear and 3 ×2⁢pt analysis, primarily due to the WZ calibration of the source samples.

Cosmological parameters↗
DOE OSTI2022

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian estimation of HIV acquisition dates for prevention trials

Accurate timing estimates of when participants acquire HIV in HIV prevention trials are necessary for determining antibody levels at acquisition. The Antibody-Mediated Prevention (AMP) Studies showed that a passively administered broadly neutralizing antibody can prevent the acquisition of HIV from a neutralization-sensitive virus. We developed a pipeline for estimating the date of detectable HIV acquisition (DDA) in AMP Study participants using diagnostic and viral sequence data. Using a Bayesian strategy that combines three streams of data (REN [rev/vpu/env/Δnef] sequence, GP [gag/Δpol] sequence, and diagnostic) where their 95% credible intervals overlap based on pre-specified criteria and decision rules. We evaluated the performance of our AMP pipeline using PacBio viral sequence data from 41 participants across two prospective acute HIV acquisition cohort studies, FRESH and RV217, with twice-weekly sampling. These cohort studies enrolled young women in South Africa and men and women in Kenya and Thailand, respectively, with a high likelihood of HIV acquisition. In evaluating performance, “true DDA” was the center of bounds between last-negative and first-positive RNA diagnostic tests (median time 4 days, range 2–7 days); bias was the mean difference between estimated and true DDA. Using diagnostic data alone yielded timing estimates with a bias of 2.4 days and root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.9 days. These results were improved using sequence + diagnostic data (bias 1.5 days, RMSE 6.9 days), as well as by restricting sequence-based estimation to samples from ≤5 weeks post-DDA (bias 0.2 days, RMSE 7.8 days).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗