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At least 1,081 records · Page 60

A NEW STATISTICAL PERSPECTIVE TO THE COSMIC VOID DISTRIBUTION

In this study, we obtain the size distribution of voids as a three-parameter redshift-independent log-normal void probability function (VPF) directly from the Cosmic Void Catalog (CVC). Although many statistical models of void distributions are based on the counts in randomly placed cells, the log-normal VPF that we obtain here is independent of the shape of the voids due to the parameter-free void finder of the CVC. We use three void populations drawn from the CVC generated by the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) Mocks, which are tuned to three mock SDSS samples to investigate the void distribution statistically and to investigate the effects of the environments on the size distribution. As a result, it is shown that void size distributions obtained from the HOD Mock samples are satisfied by the three-parameter log-normal distribution. In addition, we find that there may be a relation between the hierarchical formation, skewness, and kurtosis of the log-normal distribution for each catalog. We also show that the shape of the three-parameter distribution from the samples is strikingly similar to the galaxy log-normal mass distribution obtained from numerical studies. This similarity between void size and galaxy mass distributions may possibly indicate evidence of nonlinear mechanisms affecting both voids and galaxies, such as large-scale accretion and tidal effects. Considering the fact that in this study, all voids are generated by galaxy mocks and show hierarchical structures in different levels, it may be possible that the same nonlinear mechanisms of mass distribution affect the void size distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Hydrogeological Model Selection Among Complex Spatial Priors

Hydrogeological field studies rely often on a single conceptual representation of the subsurface. This is problematic since the impact of a poorly chosen conceptual model on predictions might be significantly larger than the one caused by parameter uncertainty. Furthermore, conceptual models often need to incorporate geological concepts and patterns in order to provide meaningful uncertainty quantification and predictions. Consequently, several geologically realistic conceptual models should ideally be considered and evaluated in terms of their relative merits. Here, we propose a full Bayesian methodology based on Markov chain Monte Carlo to enable model selection among 2-D conceptual models that are sampled using training images and concepts from multiple-point statistics. More precisely, power posteriors for the different conceptual subsurface models are sampled using sequential geostatistical resampling and Graph Cuts. To demonstrate the methodology, we compare and rank five alternative conceptual geological models that have been proposed in the literature to describe aquifer heterogeneity at the MAcroDispersion Experiment site in Mississippi, USA. We consider a small-scale tracer test for which the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity impacts multilevel solute concentration data observed along a 2-D transect. The thermodynamic integration and the stepping-stone sampling methods were used to compute the evidence and associated Bayes factors using the computed power posteriors. We find that both methods are compatible with multiple-point statistics-based inversions and provide a consistent ranking of the competing conceptual models considered.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Results of experiments devoted to searches for 2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and for the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe with the aid of proportional counters

A brief description of two low-background setups deployed at the Baksan Neutrino Observatory (Institute for Nuclear Research, Russian Academy of Sciences) and intended for searches for two types of double-beta decay of inert-gas isotopes-2K capture on {sup 78}Kr and the double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe-is given. The two setups in question have similar structures and employ identical large high-pressure copper proportional counters as detectors. Upon a treatment of data from measurements with krypton samples differing in the content of the isotope {sup 78}Kr, the spectrum for an enriched sample revealed an excess of events at a statistical-significance level of about two standard deviations (2{sigma}). If one attributes this excess to 2K(2{nu}) capture on {sup 78}Kr, the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 1.4{sub -0.7}{sup +2.3} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 22} yr at a 90% C.L. A treatment of data from measurements with xenon samples differing in content of the isotope {sup 136}Xe led to the appearance of an excess of events in the spectrum for an enriched sample at a statistical-significance level of about 2.2{sigma}. If one assumes that this excess is due to the two-neutrino double-beta decay of {sup 136}Xe, then the respective half-life is T{sub 1/2} = 5.8{sub -1.8}{sup +4.7} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 21} yr.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

BROAD Hβ EMISSION-LINE VARIABILITY IN A SAMPLE OF 102 LOCAL ACTIVE GALAXIES

A sample of 102 local (0.02 ≤ z ≤ 0.1) Seyfert galaxies with black hole masses M{sub BH} > 10{sup 7}M{sub ⊙} was selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and observed using the Keck 10 m telescope to study the scaling relations between M{sub BH} and host galaxy properties. We study profile changes of the broad Hβ emission line within the three to nine year time frame between the two sets of spectra. The variability of the broad Hβ emission line is of particular interest, not only because it is used to estimate M{sub BH}, but also because its strength and width are used to classify Seyfert galaxies into different types. At least some form of broad-line variability (in either width or flux) is observed in the majority (∼66%) of the objects, resulting in a Seyfert-type change for ∼38% of the objects, likely driven by variable accretion and/or obscuration. The broad Hβ line virtually disappears in 3/102 (∼3%) extreme cases. We discuss potential causes for these changing look active galactic nuclei. While similar dramatic transitions have previously been reported in the literature, either on a case-by-case basis or in larger samples focusing on quasars at higher redshifts, our study provides statistical information on the frequency of Hβ line variability in a sample of low-redshift Seyfert galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Post-Closure Environmental Sampling and Inspection at the Amchitka Island, Alaska, Site - 17251

In the 1960's and early 1970's, three underground nuclear tests were conducted on Amchitka Island, Alaska. In 1965, the US Department of Defense-in conjunction with the US Atomic Energy Commission (AEC)-conducted the first of these nuclear tests, Long Shot, to provide data that would improve US capabilities for detecting underground nuclear explosions. In 1969, AEC conducted the second test, Milrow, to explore the feasibility of detonating a much larger device. In 1971, AEC conducted the third test, Cannikin, which was the largest underground test ever conducted by the US. The Long-Term Surveillance Plan (LTSP) for the Amchitka, Alaska, Site details how the US Department of Energy Office of Legacy Management (LM) intends to fulfill its mission to protect human health and the environment at and around the Amchitka Island site. The LTSP calls for monitoring to be performed every 5 years, at least during the initial phase of the project. The purpose of the monitoring is to develop a baseline of activity concentrations for selected radionuclides in biota, water, and soil, both on Amchitka Island and at the reference location on Adak Island, approximately 322 kilometers (200 miles) northeast of Amchitka. In addition to the environmental monitoring activities, seven mud pit caps that contain diesel-contaminated soils are inspected. The plan for biological and water sampling (both seawater and freshwater) during the May 2016 sampling event was developed through close coordination with the primary stakeholders, including the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, and the US Fish and Wildlife Service. The environmental sampling in 2016 is a continuation of LM's evaluation of Amchitka Island's environment. Previous results from similar monitoring programs in 2004 and 2011 indicate that the environment is not being impacted by radionuclide migration and uptake from the underground nuclear testing conducted beneath Amchitka Island; consequently, subsistence and commercial-catch seafood is safe for human consumption. The collection of biota samples (rockfish, Irish lords, greenling, and rockweed) for cesium-134 ({sup 134}Cs), cesium-137 ({sup 137}Cs), plutonium-239 ({sup 239}Pu), plutonium-240 ({sup 240}Pu), and freshwater and seawater samples for {sup 134}Cs, {sup 137}Cs, and tritium ({sup 3}H) was the primary objective of the 2016 sampling effort. Rockfish, Irish lords, and greenling are resident, nonmigratory fish species that spend their entire life cycle in the marine environment, and rockweed is an inter-tidal species that may concentrate cesium. The seawater samples were collected primarily to determine if leakage from the Long Shot detonation could be detected and, secondarily, to compare with the background seawater samples collected from Adak Island. Cesium isotopes are also being analyzed to better understand the potential impact that the Fukushima-Daiichi release might have on the Amchitka and Adak environments. The target detection limits used for the 2016 sampling are lower than those used in previous studies. The lower detection limits make it possible for LM to delineate background activity levels for the radionuclides of interest. Data from the 2016 sampling event go beyond assessing food safety and focus on detecting leakage from the underground nuclear explosions. Additionally, the baseline activity concentrations obtained for the reference area (Adak Island) will enable identification of quantitative statistical trends in the results of future sampling programs. Sampling programs conducted in 2021 and beyond will have an objective to assess the statistical trends of radioactivity levels in the Amchitka Island environment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

First measurement of the muon antineutrino double-differential charged-current quasielastic cross section

The largest sample ever recorded of v ¯ μ charged-current quasielastic (CCQE, ν ¯<!-- ¯ --> μ + p → μ + + n ) candidate events is used to produce the minimally model-dependent, flux-integrated double-differential cross section d 2 σ d T μ d c o s θ μ ν ¯<!-- ¯ --> μ for v ¯ μ CCQE for a mineral oil target. This measurement exploits the large statistics of the MiniBooNE antineutrino mode sample and provides the most complete information of this process to date. In order to facilitate historical comparisons, the flux-unfolded total cross section $σ(E_ν)$ and single-differential cross section d dσ Q 2 on both mineral oil and on carbon are also reported. The observed cross section is somewhat higher than the predicted cross section from a model assuming independently acting nucleons in carbon with canonical form factor values. The shape of the data are also discrepant with this model. Finally, these results have implications for intranuclear processes and can help constrain signal and background processes for future neutrino oscillation measurements.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A new estimate of the China temperature anomaly series and uncertainty assessment in 1900–2006

While global warming during the last century has been well recognized, the magnitude of the climate warming in regions such as China over the past 100 years still has some uncertainty due to limited observations during the early years. Several series of temperature anomalies for the 20th century in China have been independently developed by different groups. The uncertainty arises mainly from the sparse observations before 1950, where statistics are sensitive to the small and potentially biased sample. In this study, BSHADE–MSN (Biased Sentinel Hospitals Areal Disease Estimation and Means of Stratified Nonhomogeneous Surface), a combination of two novel distinct statistical methods that are applicable with different sample situations to a spatial heterogeneous surface, is applied to estimate annual mean temperature anomalies for China. This method takes into account prior knowledge of geographical spatial autocorrelation and nonhomogeneity of target domains, remedies the biased sample, and maximizes an objective function for the best linear unbiased estimation (BLUE) of the regional mean quantity. For the period 1900–1999, the overall trend estimated by BSHADE–MSN is 0.80°C with a 95% confidential interval between 0.41°C and 1.18°C. This is significantly lower than that calculated by Climate Anomaly Method (CAM) and Block Kriging. The new temperature anomaly series for China exhibits slightly warmer conditions for the period before 1950 than existing studies. All the methods applied so far agree well with each other for the period after 1950, when there are sufficient stations across the country for the estimation of temperature anomaly series. Cross validation shows that the new regional mean temperature anomaly series has smaller estimation error variance and higher accuracy than those based on the other methods assessed in this study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

H-ATLAS/GAMA: magnification bias tomography. Astrophysical constraints above ∼1 arcmin

An unambiguous manifestation of the magnification bias is the cross-correlation between two source samples with non-overlapping redshift distributions. In this work we measure and study the cross-correlation signal between a foreground sample of GAMA galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts in the range 0.2< z <0.8, and a background sample of H-ATLAS galaxies with photometric redshifts ∼>1.2. It constitutes a substantial improvement over the cross-correlation measurements made by Gonzalez-Nuevo et al. (2014) with updated catalogues and wider area (with S / N ∼> 5 below 10 arcmin and reaching S / N ∼ 20 below 30 arcsec). The better statistics allow us to split the sample in different redshift bins and to perform a tomographic analysis (with S / N ∼> 3 below 10 arcmin and reaching S / N ∼ 15 below 30 arcsec). Moreover, we implement a halo model to extract astrophysical information about the background galaxies and the deflectors that are producing the lensing link between the foreground (lenses) and background (sources) samples. In the case of the sources, we find typical mass values in agreement with previous studies: a minimum halo mass to host a central galaxy, M {sub min}∼ 10{sup 12.26} M {sub ⊙}, and a pivot halo mass to have at least one sub-halo satellite, M {sub 1∼} 10{sup 12.84} M {sub ⊙}. However, the lenses are massive galaxies or even galaxy groups/clusters, with minimum mass of M {sub min}{sup lens}∼ 10{sup 13.06} M {sub ⊙}. Above a mass of M {sub 1}{sup lens}∼ 10{sup 14.57} M {sub ⊙} they contain at least one additional satellite galaxy which contributes to the lensing effect. The tomographic analysis shows that, while M {sub 1}{sup lens} is almost redshift independent, there is a clear evolution of increase M {sub min}{sup lens} with redshift in agreement with theoretical estimations. Finally, the halo modeling allows us to identify a strong lensing contribution to the cross-correlation for angular scales below 30 arcsec. This interpretation is supported by the results of basic but effective simulations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Vacuum Strength of Two Candidate Glasses for a Space Observatory

The strengths of two candidate glass types for use in a space observatory were measured. Samples of ultra-low expansion glass (ULE) and borosilicate (Pyrex) were tested in air and in vacuum at room temperature (20 C) and in vacuum after being heated to 200 C. Both glasses tested in vacuum showed an increase in strength over those tested in air. However, there was no statistical difference between the strength of samples tested in vacuum at room temperature and those tested in vacuum after heating to 200 C.

Manning, T. a.↗

THE DETECTION AND STATISTICS OF GIANT ARCS BEHIND CLASH CLUSTERS

We developed an algorithm to find and characterize gravitationally lensed galaxies (arcs) to perform a comparison of the observed and simulated arc abundance. Observations are from the Cluster Lensing And Supernova survey with Hubble (CLASH). Simulated CLASH images are created using the MOKA package and also clusters selected from the high-resolution, hydrodynamical simulations, MUSIC, over the same mass and redshift range as the CLASH sample. The algorithm's arc elongation accuracy, completeness, and false positive rate are determined and used to compute an estimate of the true arc abundance. We derive a lensing efficiency of 4 ± 1 arcs (with length ≥6″ and length-to-width ratio ≥7) per cluster for the X-ray-selected CLASH sample, 4 ± 1 arcs per cluster for the MOKA-simulated sample, and 3 ± 1 arcs per cluster for the MUSIC-simulated sample. The observed and simulated arc statistics are in full agreement. We measure the photometric redshifts of all detected arcs and find a median redshift z{sub s} = 1.9 with 33% of the detected arcs having z{sub s} > 3. We find that the arc abundance does not depend strongly on the source redshift distribution but is sensitive to the mass distribution of the dark matter halos (e.g., the c–M relation). Our results show that consistency between the observed and simulated distributions of lensed arc sizes and axial ratios can be achieved by using cluster-lensing simulations that are carefully matched to the selection criteria used in the observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: cosmological implications from multitracer BAO analysis with galaxies and voids

We construct cosmic void catalogues with the dive void finder upon SDSS BOSS DR12 and eBOSS DR16 galaxy samples with BAO reconstruction, and perform a joint BAO analysis using different types of galaxies and the corresponding voids. The BAO peak is evident for the galaxy–galaxy, galaxy–void, and void–void correlation functions of all data sets, including the ones cross-correlating LRG and ELG samples. Two multitracer BAO fitting schemes are tested, one combining the galaxy and void correlation functions with a weight applied to voids, and the other using a single BAO dilation parameter for all clustering measurements. Both methods produce consistent results with mock catalogues, and on average ~10 per cent improvements of the BAO statistical uncertainties are observed for all samples, compared to the results from galaxies alone. By combining the clustering of galaxies and voids, the uncertainties of BAO measurements from the SDSS data are reduced by 5–15 per cent, yielding 0.9 per cent, 0.8 per cent, 1.1 per cent, 2.3 per cent, and 2.9 per cent constraints on the distance $D_{_{\rm V}}(z)$, at effective redshifts 0.38, 0.51, 0.70, 0.77, and 0.85, respectively. When combined with BAO measurements from SDSS MGS, QSO, and Lyα samples, as well as the BBN results, we obtain $H_0 = 67.58 \pm 0.91\, {\rm km}\, {\rm s}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$, Ω m = 0.290 ± 0.015, and $\Omega _\Lambda h^2 = 0.3241 \pm 0.0079$ in the flat-ΛCDM framework, where the 1σ uncertainties are around 6 per cent, 6 per cent, and 17 per cent smaller respectively, compared to constraints from the corresponding anisotropic BAO measurements without voids and LRG–ELG cross-correlations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Radio-bright versus radio-dark gamma-ray bursts – more evidence for distinct progenitors

ABSTRACT We analyse two distinct samples of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), with and without radio afterglow emission. We use an updated sample of 211 GRBs and find, in agreement with previous results (although with a sample that is almost twice as large), that the intrinsic gamma-ray duration (Tint) and isotropic equivalent energy (Eiso) distributions between these two populations appear to be significantly different. This implies that the radio-bright GRBs are more energetic and last longer than radio-dark GRBs. The two samples’ redshift distributions (z) are not statistically different. We analyse several correlations between variables (Eiso, Tint, jet opening angle, and z), accounting for selection effects and redshift evolution using the Efron–Petrosian method. We find a statistically significant anticorrelation between the jet opening angle and redshift, as well as between Tint and redshift, for both radio-bright and radio-dark GRBs. Finally, in agreement with previous work, we find that very high energy (0.1–100 GeV) extended emission is present only in the radio-bright GRB sample. Our work supports the possibility that the radio-bright and radio-dark GRBs originate from different progenitors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Bayesian optimized collection strategies for fatigue strength testing

Abstract A statistical framework is presented enabling optimal sampling and analysis of constant life fatigue data. Protocols using Bayesian maximum entropy sampling are built based on conventional staircase and stress step methods, reducing the requirement of prior knowledge for data collection. The Bayesian Staircase method shows improved parameter estimation efficiency, and the Bayesian Stress Step method shows equal accuracy to the standard method at larger step size allowing experimentalists to lessen concerns of loading history. Statistical methods for determining model suitability are shown, highlighting the influence of protocol. Experimental validation is performed, showing the applicability of the methods in laboratory testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Vacuum Strength of Two Candidate Glasses for a Space Observatory

The strengths of two candidate glass types for use in a space observatory were measured. Samples of ultra-low expansion glass (ULE) and borosilicate (Pyrex) were tested in air and in vacuum at room temperature (20 degrees C) and in vacuum after being heated to 200 degrees C. Both glasses tested in vacuum showed a significant increase in strength over those tested in air. However, there was no statistical difference between the strength of samples tested in vacuum at room temperature and those tested in vacuum after heating to 200 degrees C.

Manning, Timothy Andrew↗

A coronagraphic search for brown dwarfs around nearby stars

Brown dwarf companions have been searched for around stars within 10 pc of the Sun using the Johns-Hopkins University Adaptive Optics Coronagraph (AOC), a stellar coronagraph with an image stabilizer. The AOC covers the field around the target star with a minimum search radius of 1 sec .5 and a field of view of 1 arcmin sq. We have reached an unprecedented dynamic range of Delta m = 13 in our search for faint companions at I band. Comparison of our survey with other brown dwarf searches shows that the AOC technique is unique in its dynamic range while at the same time just as sensitive to brown dwarfs as the recent brown dwarf surveys. The present survey covered 24 target stars selected from the Gliese catalog. A total of 94 stars were detected in 16 fields. The low-latitude fields are completely dominated by background star contamination. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests were carried out for a sample restricted to high latitudes and a sample with small angular separations. The high-latitude sample (b greater than or equal to 44 deg) appears to show spatial concentration toward target stars. The small separation sample (Delta Theta less than 20 sec) shows weaker dependence on Galactic coordinates than field stars. These statistical tests suggest that both the high-latitude sample and the small separation sample can include a substantial fraction of true companions. However, the nature of these putative companions is mysterious. They are too faint to be white dwarfs and too blue for brown dwarfs. Ignoring the signif icance of the statistical tests, we can reconcile most of the detections with distant main-sequence stars or white dwarfs except for a candidate next to GL 475. Given the small size of our sample, we conclude that considerably more targets need to be surveyed before a firm conclusion on the possibility of a new class of companions can be made.

Nakajima, T.↗

pop-cosmos : redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

ABSTRACT Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak-lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS (Kilo-Degree Survey)-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU (graphics processing unit)-accelerated Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim \!185\,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times 10^{-3}$), scatter ($\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2 per cent) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times 10^{-2}$, $\sigma _{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0 per cent outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7 per cent of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37 per cent implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak-lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out of sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

Halder, Anik [Institute of Astronomy and Kavli Ins↗

Statistical ensemble analysis for simulating extrinsic noise-driven response in NF-κB signaling networks

Background: Gene expression profiles and protein dynamics in single cells have a large cell-to-cell variability due to intracellular noise. Intracellular fluctuations originate from two sources: intrinsic noise due to the probabilistic nature of biochemical reactions and extrinsic noise due to randomized interactions of the cell with other cellular systems or its environment. Presently, there is no systematic parameterization and modeling scheme to simulate cellular response at the single cell level in the presence of extrinsic noise. Results: In this paper, we propose a novel statistical ensemble method to simulate the distribution of heterogeneous cellular responses in single cells. We capture the effects of extrinsic noise by randomizing values of the model parameters. In this context, a statistical ensemble is a large number of system replicates, each with randomly sampled model parameters from biologically feasible intervals. We apply this statistical ensemble approach to the well-studied NF-κB signaling system. We predict several characteristic dynamic features of NF-κB response distributions; one of them is the dosage-dependent distribution of the first translocation time of NF-κB. Conclusion: The distributions of heterogeneous cellular responses that our statistical ensemble formulation generates reveal the effect of different cellular conditions, e.g., effects due to wild type versus mutant cells or between different dosages of external stimulants. Distributions generated in the presence of extrinsic noise yield valuable insight into underlying regulatory mechanisms, which are sometimes otherwise hidden.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗