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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

CrossLink: Advancements in Scalable Unstructured Mesh Generation [Slides]

Traditional mesh generation approaches are labor intensive and have limited robustness when applied to parametric design exploration and optimization of complex geometries. While automatic mesh generation approaches exist, they tend to generate tetrahedral or mixed-hybrid meshes which are generally unsuitable for physics applications with strong shock waves, thin boundary layers, and strong gradients. In addition, simulations sizes in the billions of cells are becoming more common with traditional mesh generation methods quickly reaching scalability limits. CrossLink offers a topology-based mesh generation approach with unstructured block-filling methods and a scalable mesh generation engine. In addition, CrossLink incorporates a python based API for seamless workflow integration and robust repeatability of the geometry handling and mesh generation process. This makes it ideal for parametric design study and optimization of complex geometries. Finally, future versions of CrossLink will offer a parametric mesh capability that optimizes a high-order mesh and enables reconstruction of the final mesh in memory by the physics solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Biosensor-driven strain engineering reveals key cellular processes for maximizing isoprenol production in Pseudomonas putida

Synthetic biology generates vast combinatorial designs, yet high-throughput analytical methods to screen them are poorly matched to interrogate this search space. We address this challenge by developing a biosensor-driven, growth-coupled selection strategy in Pseudomonas putida for isoprenol, a potential aviation fuel precursor. We found and characterized a noncanonical signaling pathway, revealing a functional and physical complex between a hybrid histidine kinase and an alcohol dehydrogenase, whose activity is tuned by heterodimerization. Leveraging this biosensor in a pooled CRISPRi library selection, we identified key host limitations. Iterative combinatorial strain engineering derived from these hits yielded a 36-fold titer increase to ~900 milligrams per liter. Integrated omics analysis revealed that metabolic rewiring toward amino acid catabolism was crucial for this improvement. This observation was found to be beneficial by technoeconomic analysis. Our modular workflow provides a powerful strategy for optimizing complex heterologous pathways and uncovering emergent host biology.

CRISPRi↗
DOE OSTI2023

CrossLink: General Overview [Slides]

Problem: Traditional mesh generation approaches are labor intensive and have limited robustness when applied to parametric design exploration and optimization of complex geometries. While automatic mesh generation approaches exist, they tend to generate tetrahedral or mixed-hybrid meshes which are generally unsuitable for physics applications with strong shock waves, thin boundary layers, and strong gradients. In addition, simulations sizes in the billions of cells are becoming more common with traditional mesh generation methods quickly reaching scalability limits. Solution: CrossLink offers a topology-based mesh generation approach with unstructured block-filling methods and a scalable mesh generation engine. In addition, CrossLink incorporates a python-based API for seamless workflow integration and robust repeatability of the geometry handling and mesh generation process. This makes it ideal for parametric design study and optimization of complex geometries. Finally, future versions of CrossLink will offer a parametric mesh capability that optimizes a high-order mesh and enables reconstruction of the final mesh in memory by the physics solver.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Parallel I/O Evaluation Techniques and Emerging HPC Workloads: A Perspective

Emerging workloads such as artificial intelligence, big data analytics and complex multi-step workflows alongside future exascale applications are anticipated future HPC workloads, which will result in a more diverse I/O system workload and even less predictable I/O behavior and access patterns. Along with the ever increasing gap between the compute and storage performance capabilities, the in-depth understanding of extreme-scale I/O behavior and the I/O performance modeling and prediction are essential tools of the large-scale I/O evaluation process for addressing the needs of extreme-scale hybrid workloads. In this survey article, we focus on the state-of-the-art of the I/O behavior and performance analysis process for HPC systems in a 5-year time window and identify future research challenges.

Neuwirth, Sarah↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. A new RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) has been developed for optimizing the production variables of the IES given the demand profile. Currently, only the limits that affect the production variables and their corresponding time rates of change are considered (explicit constraints). However, other variables are additionally subject to constraints, but the associated limits are not accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response effects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. The Reference Governor (RG) algorithm is traditionally used for enforcing state and control constraints by modifying the set-point trajectories supplied to the feedback regulators. In our application, the RG is coupled within an iterative loop with the HERON-power dispatcher to generate optimal trajectories that ensure the operational constraints are met. A data-driven procedure to derive a representation of the dynamics of the controlled system was developed. First, the variables that represented the state of the system are selected (PCA-based approach), and then state-space representation matrices are derived from the collected measurements (DMDc algorithm). A preliminary version of the developed workflow based on Linear Time Invariant matrices was assessed by adopting a two-unit test case. More sophisticated versions of this workflow foreseeing the on-line derivation of system matrices will be deployed in FY 2021. Finally, a “plug-and-play” library of controllers and state observers was developed in Dymola. Some aspects of the current configuration of the IES unit components, e.g., the encapsulation of the control schemes into dedicated blocks, are consistent with the “plug-and-play” philosophy. Other features, e.g., the system buses collecting the input and the output variables, are not. For this reason, once listed and described the limits of the current configuration, necessary modifications to the plant model interface are presented. As a test-case, the interfaces of the SES model in the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework were reworked accordingly, and two different control schemes were applied to the same plant model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Safeguards-Informed Hybrid Imagery Dataset [Poster]

Deep Learning computer vision models require many thousands of properly labelled images for training, which is especially challenging for safeguards and nonproliferation, given that safeguards-relevant images are typically rare due to the sensitivity and limited availability of the technologies. Creating relevant images through real-world staging is costly and limiting in scope. Expert-labeling is expensive, time consuming, and error prone. We aim to develop a data set of both realworld and synthetic images that are relevant to the nuclear safeguards domain that can be used to support multiple data science research questions. In the process of developing this data, we aim to develop a novel workflow to validate synthetic images using machine learning explainability methods, testing among multiple computer vision algorithms, and iterative synthetic data rendering. We will deliver one million images – both real-world and synthetically rendered – of two types uranium storage and transportation containers with labelled ground truth and associated adversarial examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2023

Automated Fiber Placement Through Thickness Defect Stacking Optimization

In its 2022 commercial market outlook, Boeing forecasted an 80% increase in the global fleet through 2041 compared to 2019 pre-pandemic levels. This sharp rise in demand will drive pressure onto airframe manufacturers to ramp up production and find more efficient ways to design and manufacture airplanes. Complicating this challenge is the industry’s recent transformation from traditional metal-based airframes towards hybrid composite-metal aircraft. While composites have been used in aviation for decades, aircraft manufacturers are still struggling to design and manufacture quality parts at a high rate. Automated Fiber Placement (AFP) is one of the main manufacturing techniques used to produce large-scale composite parts. After a design has been created, a manufacturing strategy has to be developed based on the working material, part geometry, and machine capabilities. This process planning stage is essential to the AFP workflow and currently requires a high level of manual input from an experienced process planner. In an effort to automate and optimize this stage, the Computer Aided Process Planning (CAPP) module was developed. CAPP assists process planners in identifying optimal starting point location and layup strategy for each ply of a laminate. This Ply-Level Optimization (PLO) phase operates on the quantification of ply quality through predictable geometry-based defects such as gaps, overlaps, angle deviation, and steering. As you move from PLO to Laminate-Level Optimization (LLO) the design space grows exponentially, emphasizing the need for automated optimization. The work presented in this thesis expands CAPP’s functionality by comparing the planned fiber paths through the thickness of the laminate to mitigate stacked area defects and achieve an optimal laminate-level manufacturing strategy. Within CAPP, predicted gap and overlap defects are imported from Vericut Composites Programming (VCP) and then discretized to streamline the through-thickness comparison. Two objective functions are used to score different combinations of ply layup strategies based on defect stacking both globally and locally. Four combinatorial optimization algorithms were coupled with these objective functions to investigate the laminate-level manufacturing strategy design space and converge on the optimal plan. These algorithms were evaluated based on accuracy and efficiency through virtual testing on a complex tool surface. A separate LLO approach was developed to achieve near-optimal laminates in significantly less time. The end result is a software package which greatly reduces the required input from process planners, shortening the design-build cycle time and improving part quality.

AFP↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid learning techniques for scientific data reduction with performance guarantees

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Final report- UFL - RAPIDS2: A SciDAC Institute for Computer Science, Data, and Artificial Intelligence

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Transport Behavior in Hybrid Perovskites Solar Cells via Machine Learning Analysis of Environmental-Dependent Impedance Spectroscopy

Hybrid organic–inorganic perovskites are one of the promising candidates for the next-generation semiconductors due to their superlative optoelectronic properties. However, one of the limiting factors for potential applications is their chemical and structural instability in different environments. Herein, the stability of (FAPbI3)0.85(MAPbBr3)0.15 perovskite solar cell is explored in different atmospheres using impedance spectroscopy. An equivalent circuit model and distribution of relaxation times (DRTs) are used to effectively analyze impedance spectra. DRT is further analyzed via machine learning workflow based on the non-negative matrix factorization of reconstructed relaxation time spectra. This exploration provides the interplay of charge transport dynamics and recombination processes under environment stimuli and illumination. The results reveal that in the dark, oxygen atmosphere induces an increased hole concentration with less ionic character while ionic motion is dominant under ambient air. Under 1 Sun illumination, the environment-dependent impedance responses show a more striking effect compared with dark conditions. In this case, the increased transport resistance observed under oxygen atmosphere in equivalent circuit analysis arises due to interruption of photogenerated hole carriers. The results not only shed light on elucidating transport mechanisms of perovskite solar cells in different environments but also offer an effective interpretation of impedance responses.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Pandemic drugs at pandemic speed: infrastructure for accelerating COVID-19 drug discovery with hybrid machine learning- and physics-based simulations on high-performance computers

The race to meet the challenges of the global pandemic has served as a reminder that the existing drug discovery process is expensive, inefficient and slow. There is a major bottleneck screening the vast number of potential small molecules to shortlist lead compounds for antiviral drug development. New opportunities to accelerate drug discovery lie at the interface between machine learning methods, in this case, developed for linear accelerators, and physics-based methods. The two in silico methods, each have their own advantages and limitations which, interestingly, complement each other. Here, we present an innovative infrastructural development that combines both approaches to accelerate drug discovery. The scale of the potential resulting workflow is such that it is dependent on supercomputing to achieve extremely high throughput. We have demonstrated the viability of this workflow for the study of inhibitors for four COVID-19 target proteins and our ability to perform the required large-scale calculations to identify lead antiviral compounds through repurposing on a variety of supercomputers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2021

SoMo: Fast and Accurate Simulations of Continuum Robots in Complex Environments

Engineers and scientists often rely on their intuition and experience when designing soft robotic systems. The development of performant controllers and motion plans for these systems commonly requires time-consuming iterations on hardware. We present the SoMo (Soft Motion) toolkit, a software framework that makes it easy to instantiate and control typical continuum manipulators in an accurate physics simulator. SoMo introduces a standardized and human-readable description format for continuum manipulators. It leverages this description format and the Bullet physics engine to enable fast and accurate simulations of soft and soft-rigid hybrid robots in environments with complex contact interactions. This allows users to vary design and control parameters across simulations with minimal effort. We compare the capabilities of SoMo to other physics simulators and highlight the benefits and accuracy of SoMo by demonstrating the agreement between simulation and real-world experiments on several examples; these include an in-hand manipulation task with continuum fingers, an automated exploration of how to design soft fingers for precision grasping, and a brief snake locomotion study. Overall, SoMo provides an accessible way for designers of soft robotic hardware and control systems to gain access to a simulation-accelerated workflow.

Moritz A. Graule↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling-Driven Damage Tolerant Design of Graphene Nanoplatelet/Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Hybrid Composite Panels for Full-Scale Aerospace Structures

The objective of this study is to design a new nano graphenecarbon fiberpolymer hybrid composite that can be used for the NASA SLS Composite Exploration Upper Stage (CEUS) forward skirt structure. The new material will improve the resistance to open-hole compression failure of the structure relative to traditional polymer fiber composites. The material is designed rapidly and with little cost using the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) approach. Multiscale modeling and experiments are used to synergistically optimize the material design to yield improved properties and performance by controlling key processing parameters for manufacturing nano-enhanced materials. Specifically, the nanocomposite panel showed a 22 reduction in mass relative to the traditional composite panel, while both designs are equal in terms of ease of manufacture. This potential mass savings corresponds to an estimated 45 savings in materials and manufacturing costs. The multiscale ICME workflow developed for this project can be readily applied to the development of nano-enhanced composite materials and large aerospace structures. In addition, all key aspects of ICME were employed to complete this project including multiscale modeling, experimental characterization and visualization, data management, visualization, error and uncertainty quantification, and education. The results presented herein indicate a dramatic level of success, as well as the power and potential of ICME approach and multiscale modeling for composite materials.

computational mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

NGPINT V3: a containerized orchestration Python software for discovery of next-generation protein–protein interactions

Abstract Summary Batch yeast two-hybrid (Y2H) assays, leveraged with next-generation sequencing, have afforded successful innovations for the analysis of protein–protein interactions. NGPINT is a Conda-based software designed to process the millions of raw sequencing reads resulting from Y2H–next-generation interaction screens. Over time, increasing compatibility and dependency issues have prevented clean NGPINT installation and operation. A system-wide update was essential to continue effective use with its companion software, Y2H-SCORES. We present NGPINT V3, a containerized implementation built with both Singularity and Docker, allowing accessibility across virtually any operating system and computing environment. Availability and implementation This update includes streamlined dependencies and container images hosted on Sylabs (https://cloud.sylabs.io/library/schuyler/ngpint/ngpint) and Dockerhub (https://hub.docker.com/r/schuylerds/ngpint), facilitating easier adoption and integration into high-throughput and cloud-computing workflows. Full instructions and software can be also found in the GitHub repository https://github.com/Wiselab2/NGPINT_V3 and Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15256036.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bridging Hydrological Ensemble Simulation and Learning Using Deep Neural Operators

Ensemble-based simulation and learning (ESnL) has long been used in hydrology for parameter inference, but computational demands of process-based ESnL can be quite high. To address this issue, we propose a deep neural operator learning approach. Neural operators are generic machine learning algorithms that can learn functional mappings between infinite-dimensional spaces, providing a highly flexible tool for scientific machine learning. Our approach is built upon DeepONet, a specific deep neural operator, and is designed to address several common problems in hydrology, namely, model parameter estimation, prediction at ungaged locations, and uncertainty quantification. Here we demonstrate the effectiveness of our DeepONet-based workflow using an existing large model ensemble created for an eastern U.S. watershed that is instrumented with 10 streamflow gages. Results suggest DeepONet achieves high efficiency in learning an ML surrogate model from the model ensemble, with the modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency exceeding 0.9 on holdout test sets. Parameter inference, carried out using the trained DeepONet surrogate model and genetic algorithm, also yields robust results. Additionally, we formulate and train a separate DeepONet model for physics-informed, seq-to-seq streamflow forecasting, which further reduces biases in the pre-trained DeepONet surrogate model. While this study focuses primarily on a single watershed, our approach is general and may be extended to enable learning from model ensembles across multiple basins or models. Thus, this research represents a significant contribution to the application of hybrid machine learning in hydrology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗