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At least 109 records · Page 6

Low-Cost, High-Performance Carbon Fiber for Compressed Natural Gas Storage Tanks (Final Technical Report – Down Select Report)

The aim of this project is to reduce the cost of Type IV, carbon fiber (CF) composite overwrap compressed gas storage tanks by reducing the cost of CF and CF composites. The project team worked to reduce the cost of CF by exploring and testing opportunities for a low-cost alternative precursor material for CF production to supplant market-dominant and costly polyacrylonitrile (PAN). Concurrently, the team aimed to reduce the cost of the tanks at the composite level by improving the interfacial adhesion between the fibers and the matrix resin through the incorporation of low-cost nanoparticles recycled from waste materials, which would reduce the volume of costly CF required to achieve the same tank performance. At the end of the first year, the project team selected mesophase pitch as the primary precursor candidate from a field of materials based on the superior mechanical performance and cost-saving potential. During the second year, the team produced CFs derived from mesophase pitch achieving an average tensile strength of 365.6 ksi and average tensile modulus of 40.74 Msi. Facility availability for spinning and converting these fibers at greater scale has hindered scale-up demonstration, but the team has identified opportunities to conduct this work in the near term. Cost modeling shows that these mesophase pitch-derived CFs can be up to 40% less expensive than PAN-derived CFs due to the lower cost of the feedstock material, higher throughput, greater conversion yield, and lower cost spinning method and compared to PAN. Additionally, the team has demonstrated at lab-scale that nanoparticle coating CFs can significantly increase the interfacial shear strength and load transfer efficiency of CFs in a matrix. Single filament pull-out testing showed a 27% average increase in max interfacial shear strength due to this coating. A continuous method of applying these coatings to a tow of CF has been developed for scale-up. 26 m tows of coated CFs were produced using this system and formed into composite ring samples for ASTM ring burst testing. Issues with the testing protocol have limited assessment of these results. A prototype Type IV tank was designed to meet ANSI HGV2 standards, and the design criteria set out by DOE, using the CF properties developed by the team paired with a proprietary resin matrix, a polyamide liner, and aluminum end bosses. The tank weighs 153.1 kg and with a total capacity of 5.8 kg H2 (5.6 kg usable), which yields a gravimetric capacity of 1.17 kWh/kg. Cost modeling predicts that the tank will have a projected cost of $15.73/kWh. Tank performance modeling does not include considerations for fiber-matrix load transfer efficiency improvements offered by nanoparticle coating method.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Co-Simulation Framework for Steady-State Analyses of Multiple Droop-based MTdc Grids in Continental-Scale Systems

The growing scale and complexity of planning continental hybrid ac and multi-terminal dc (MTdc) systems require scalable steady-state modeling and analysis approaches not currently available in commercial tools. This paper presents a comprehensive multi-fidelity model-conversion framework that enables the efficient transition of MTdc grid models from production cost modeling (PCM) and approximated ac power flow to detailed ac–MTdc power flow for large-scale planning studies. The core of this framework is a scalable co-simulation approach that, for the first time, enables power flow analysis in continental-scale ac–MTdc systems. It seamlessly couples commercial ac solvers with a detailed MTdc grid model that incorporates droop-based control and current-limiting strategies of multiple meshed MTdc grids. Leveraging this capability, an evaluation framework to systematically assess and compare different MTdc power redispatch strategies under ac and dc contingencies is introduced. The proposed framework and algorithm are evaluated using a combined Western and Eastern Interconnection system with 11 MTdc grids of various sizes, showing a coherent transition from PCM to detailed ac–MTdc power flow and improved system performance in voltage regulation and line overload mitigation following typical contingencies.

Nguyen, Quan H.↗

Platform Agnostic Streaming Data Application Performance Models

The mapping of computational needs onto execution resources is, by and large, a manual task, and users are frequently guided simply by intuition and past experiences. We present a queueing theory based performance model for streaming data applications that takes steps towards a better understanding of resource mapping decisions, thereby assisting application developers to make good mapping choices. The performance model (and associated cost model) are agnostic to the specific properties of the compute resource and application, simply characterizing them by their achievable data throughput. We illustrate the model with a pair of applications, one chosen from the field of computational biology and the second is a classic machine learning problem.

Faber, Clayton↗

Challenges and Opportunities for Electric Utility Modeling and Asset Valuation Frameworks: Case Study on Valuing New Pumped Storage Hydropower

Asset valuation by electric utilities is becoming increasingly difficult in the rapidly changing electric sector. Rapid deployment of variable generation and inverter-based storage systems along with uncertain demand growth, climate, policies, and other factors create a challenging environment for understanding the value proposition of a new potential asset. This report describes an effort between the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) and three U.S. Department of Energy laboratories to perform a detailed review of utility modeling and analysis practices for asset valuation and identify challenges and opportunities for advancing its methods into the future. It focuses on a case study of new potential pumped storage hydropower (PSH) because of growing interest in new PSH capacity to provide energy balancing, firm capacity, and a range of ancillary services. Staff from the DOE labs conducted systematic interviews about current practices in capacity expansion modeling, production-cost modeling, hydrological modeling, and transmission stability modeling while also discussing how scenario analysis is conducted and how models and data are integrated. The effort resulted in a set of model, integration, and scenario recommendations that could be valuable to TVA, other utilities, system operators, and other stakeholders conducting integrated grid analysis. Individual model recommendations suggest exploring computational tradeoffs with detail and resolution across spatiotemporal structure, supply- and demand-side details, transmission overlays, market interactions, and ancillary services. Automated processes to pass data between models and conduct larger scenario suites could also enhance valuation practices by enabling a more consistent study of asset value across a broader range of uncertain future grid conditions where PSH could be particularly valuable. TVA and other industry stakeholders can learn from and adapt applied research-grade methods developed by DOE laboratories and other research institutions to improve decision making and accelerate progress towards a reliable, economic, sustainable energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Assessment of the driving factors of CO 2 mitigation costs of household biogas systems in China: A LMDI decomposition with cost analysis model

China has been placing a substantial focus on biogas for reducing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The operation mode of biogas systems may make the CO 2 reduction target over-optimistic. There is limited research to investigate the influential factors that may be causing the gap between the actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs of biogas systems in China. In this research, by using field survey data of 209 biogas users and 489 non-biogas users from 19 villages in 2015, the gap between actual and theoretical unit CO 2 reduction cost is quantified at approximately 156 USD/t CO 2 . By employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) model, it is found that both the cost effect (48%) and the reduction effect (52%) contribute to the unit CO 2 reduction cost gap. Furthermore, four influential factors–household labor, accessibility to the energy resource, acceptance of biogas technology, and subsidy–significantly narrow the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs, while the levelized subsidy contributes to widening the gap. On average, biogas systems should be operated for at least four years and the substitution rate should be more than 67% in order to keep the gap between actual and theoretical CO 2 reduction costs under 50%.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Enhanced Catalyst Durability and Sulfur Tolerance by Atomic Layer Deposition (CRADA Final Report)

This CRADA advanced the use of atomic layer deposition (ALD) catalyst coatings to improve sulfur tolerance and demonstrate improved catalyst durability for biomass conversion chemistries. This project leveraged National Laboratory and industry expertise for ALD catalyst coating development between NREL, ALD NanoSolutions, Inc. ("ALD NanoSolutions"), and Johnson Matthey PLC ("Johnson Matthey"). To better understand the role of ALD coatings on catalyst activity and durability, a joint experimental and computational effort combined bench-scale ALD catalyst synthesis, material characterization, catalyst testing, and modeling of catalyst surface energetics. In addition, to demonstrate the commercial relevance of this technology, scaled ALD coated catalysts were subjected to continuous testing and accelerated aging to validate performance gains. Results were used to inform ALD catalyst coating manufacturing cost models, as well as biobased chemical process cost models.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic assessment of seismic monitoring for underground hydrogen storage

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) plays a key role in the energy landscape. However, like other subsurface engineering technologies, UHS may cause leakage into the groundwater or atmosphere and possibly induce local seismicity. To reduce these risks, seismic monitoring could be a viable technique to track the UHS plume, detect leakages, and locate induced seismicity events. Seismic monitoring has been proposed to safely monitor UHS, but research in this area is still new and requires field studies. Lab and theoretical studies have demonstrated the validity of seismic monitoring for UHS. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the economic feasibility of seismic monitoring for UHS. Hence, we develop a cost model and open-source Python code for seismic monitoring that considers types of seismometers, comprehensive operational scenarios, detection thresholds, and long-term leakage monitoring. A case study is further provided to validate the cost model on reservoir simulations of UHS. We find that the levelized cost for a 10-year operating UHS site will range on the order of ∼0.003 $\$$/kg. The methods developed in this study could also be applied to the monitoring of groundwater, gas, and/or wastewater injection.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar Modules

The goals of this SETO project (DE-EE0008559, Accelerated Scaling to Rapid Open-Air Fabrication of Durable Perovskite Solar modules) are to address the principal challenges towards the successful commercialization of perovskite solar modules utilizing scalable, high-throughput open-air spray deposition. The successful outcome of the project will provide the foundation of an all open-air spray deposited perovskite solar module with hole transport layer (HTL), perovskite, electron transport layer (ETL), and barrier layer development while establishing a fundamental understanding of perovskite device behavior under accelerated aging conditions. Through this program, we have made significant progress towards a commercializable pathway for perovskites. (1) We’ve demonstrated the successful open-air deposition of perovskite and transport layer materials. These deposition methods were chosen for their inherent scalability, and open-air processing enables a significant reduction in processing costs. These methods are also compatible with high throughputs, demonstrating the fastest perovskite film deposition at these performance levels. (2) Development of a unique all-fiber laser scribing procedure provides a high-performance, low-cost method for further improvements in scalability. (3) Our group has also placed a unique emphasis on device stability. The development of testing standards for perovskite modules is required to thoroughly evaluate potential candidates for commercialization, and we’ve taken inspiration from current industry standards to provide an honest insight into the performance and reliability of our devices. (4) An extensive cost model detailing the specific contributions of each device layer and production component provides the most thorough evaluation of any perovskite technology against conventional silicon and compound semiconductor solar devices. The cost model is a critical advancement that will provide the foundation for evaluating the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of this technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Opportunities for Cost Savings with In-Transit Visualization

We analyze the opportunities for in-transit visualization to provide cost savings compared to in-line visualization. We begin by developing a cost model that includes factors related to both in-line and in-transit which allows comparisons to be made between the two methods. We then run a series of studies to create a corpus of data for our model. We run two different visualization algorithms, one that is computation heavy and one that is communication heavy with concurrencies up to 32, 768 cores. Our primary results are in exploring the cost model within the context of our corpus. Our findings show that in-transit consistently achieves significant cost efficiencies by running visualization algorithms at lower concurrency, and that in many cases these efficiencies are enough to offset other costs (transfer, blocking, and additional nodes) to be cost effective overall. Finally, this work informs future studies, which can focus on choosing ideal configurations for in-transit processing that can consistently achieve cost efficiencies.

Kress, James↗

Blue Rock CropSpanPV - Low Cost Racking for Agricultural Solar Photovoltaics

In this work, a total of four solar panel layouts, applied to Agrivoltaics, are investigated. This study presents two hypotheses: 1. Prefabrication - Lower total cost can be achieved by constructing a pre-assembled, pre-wired solar array in a factory, with automation, then rapidly deploying it in the field. 2. Tension Structures - Using tension structures in a way to suspend an overhead solar array also reduces costs when compared to conventional support methods. Designs are presented for frames to hold the panels. Configurations are advanced to connect the frames into arrays. Supports and foundations to hold the arrays in the desired layout are calculated, selected and presented. Cost models are prepared for the four layouts, which include definition of the business enterprise, the manufacturing operation, and the required facility for production at scale. Cost models include, detail material and task/labor take-offs for both manufacturing and installation. Comparisons with conventional system adapted to Agrivoltaics reveal that the two hypotheses do not hold true. A prefabricated array requires additional material that is not needed in the base system and the cost of this additional material is not outweighed by the cost savings of reduced field installation. The cost of wire rope for a tension structure does result in an economy of material, however, the cost of end connections and tensioning devices adds significantly to the cost of the overall tension structure. Foundation loads with tension structures, especially the large wind uplift seen with a fixed tilt solar array, impose significant constraints and high costs. The following conclusions are recommended for further consideration: 1. Best Case Agrivoltaic Configuration - The best value/lowest cost configuration for agrivoltaics is the installation of solar panels mounted on a single axis tracker in either a 2-in-portrait or 2-in landscape arrangement. This is useful for grazing lands and for staple crops which require high light levels. These applications represent the vast majority of the potential agrivoltaic market. Important elements in this configuration are the specific geometric layout coordinated with the various field operations and a control system linked between the farm equipment and single axis tracker. The control system is to monitor location and orientation, then actively tilt the solar panels or brake the field equipment to provide clearance and avoid collisions. 2. Long Span Applications - The use of tension structures for an overhead fixed tilt array is beneficial where long spans are a necessity, especially where the base support in the project location has consolidated rock near the surface or some other solid structure. One application is spanning wide irrigation canals. Another may be as an installation at the top deck of parking structures. 3. Direct Ground Mount Configuration – Having skids at the base of a pre-fabricated array that extend when the array is deployed, could be a successful design. This could be a useful strategy for dense, flat, ground-mount configurations like that employed by a couple of successful commercial operations (5G Maverick and Erthos). Arrays would be orientated north and south, deployed very low on prepared grade. Arrays would be aligned closely next to each other and anchored with small ground screws or simply with ballast. This same product arrangement could be very useful for rapid deployment and set-up of solar arrays for temporary deployments, disaster response and the military operations

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

System Resilience Benefits of Dual-Fuel Capable Generators

The growing dependency on natural gas (NG) for power generation raises challenges for ensuring the resilience of power systems during extreme cold weather. Dual-fuel capable generators that can switch from burning NG to distillate fuel oil during a NG shortage offer one way to alleviate these challenges. In this study, the impacts of gas unavailability on the IEEE 73- bus reliability test system (RTS) with 2019 updated generation mixture are explored. An extension to the standard production cost model formulation of unit commitment and economic dis- patch is proposed to allow representation of dual-fuel capable generators that can switch fuels between NG and distillate oil with a specified oil tank capacity and tank refueling capability. The operation of the system under gas unavailability with 0%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of combined cycle and combustion turbine generators as dual-fuel capable with a one-day supply of fuel oil are simulated using PLEXOS, a production cost model. The dual-fuel generator performance, unserved energy, and system costs are fully assessed.

duel-fuel generator performance↗

Capital Costs for Dual-Use Photovoltaic Installations: 2020 Benchmark for Ground-Mounted PV Systems with Pollinator-Friendly Vegetation, Grazing, and Crops

This report analyzes the installed system cost of various multi-land use PV system configurations. We used PV system bottom-up cost model accounting for all system and project-development costs incurred during the installation to model the costs for conventional PV systems, PV systems co-located with sheep grazing, PV systems co-located with pollinator friendly fields and PV systems co-located with crops. We also conducted extensive sensitivity analysis around different PV system design parameters given the nascent stage of this industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Arctic shipping under global change: A case study of offshore oil exports

We explore impacts of sea ice thinning and evolutions in the energy sector on future use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) versus the Suez Canal Route (SCR), using a case study of shipping oil extracted from the offshore Russian Arctic to China. We combine an integrated human-Earth system model with a shipping cost model to incorporate impacts on both oil production and shipping costs under internally consistent scenarios. We find that the NSR could become cost-competitive with the SCR as sea ice thickness declines, especially in an RCP8.5 scenario, due to decreasing fuel and icebreaker escort costs. In a global energy evolution scenario consistent with RCP2.6, high emissions costs on the longer SCR may outweigh the costs associated with thicker sea ice on the NSR. Our novel framework provides integrated projections of NSR shipping traffic driven by a specific commodity likely to be shipped through the Arctic.

Arctic↗

The Effect of Photovoltaic Module Efficiency on Installed System Costs and Markets in Residential Rooftop Installations in the United States

In this report, we analyze how efficiencies influence residential PV system installed system costs and break-even module prices using a bottom-up cost model. We show that the cost savings associated with efficiency are much higher for area-constrained rooftop than those which are usage-constrained. We also show that simplified models of how efficiency impacts costs overestimate the value of efficiency compared to bottom-up models, particularly for usage-constrained scenarios. We also estimate the fraction of area-constrained residential rooftops in the United States today and explore how that fraction could change in future scenarios with high levels of electrification.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Incorporating Local Extreme Weather Events into Reliability Assessments

Presentation discussing modeling extreme weather effects on the Bulk power system. Using a Production cost model to analyze weather related demand increases, generator outages, transmission outages, and fuel supply constraints. These results can be analyzed to inform on system reliability effects of extreme weather. This presentation was developed for the 2026 NERC Probabilistic Assessment Forum at EPRI in Charlotte NC.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Solid Oxide Cell Manufacturing Cost Tool

NETL has developed a detailed solid oxide cell (SOC) cost modeling tool. The tool provides a fully customizable spreadsheet that aids in cost estimation of large volume manufacturing of SOC (both fuel cell and electrolysis cell). The tool can be used to assist commercial developers and other end users to evaluate the costs of producing cells and stack components as SOC systems increase in scale. The manufacturing materials, labor, component costs, and specific equipment can be tailored to accurately reflect the desired manufacturing process. The tool is paired with a detailed user manual to assist in the understanding of the full functionality. This document is the spreadsheet tool. To access the associated user guide, please visit: <a href="https://netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f5823130-0d20-4a04-9c53-341682e58ac1" rel="noopener noreferrer">Energy Analysis | netl.doe.gov</a>

cost modeling↗

Duke Energy Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study

Duke Energy has partnered with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to evaluate pathways to achieving their carbon-free targets and to assess the operational impacts of the resulting system. This report details findings from Phase II of the Duke Low Carbon Resource Integration study, which consisted of three separate but interrelated analyses: (1) a resource assessment exploring the technical and economic potential and characteristics of wind and solar resources in the Carolinas; (2) capacity expansion modeling identifying the least-cost investment pathways for achieving 70% CO 2 emissions reductions in North Carolina by 2030 and a net-zero electricity system by 2050; and (3) detailed production cost modeling of power system operations at the higher shares of low- and zero-carbon emitting generation sources, informed by the capacity expansion modeling portion of the analysis. The analysis finds that Duke Energy can approach the 2030 and 2050 emissions target in North Carolina through investment in a combination of solar, wind, and storage along with maintaining its existing nuclear fleet. The average cost of CO 2 abatement in the Carolinas through 2021-2050 is on the order of $\$27-33$ per metric ton (range of $\$9-34$ per metric ton across key sensitivities).Duke Energy can expected increased interchange with neighbors to help balance higher levels of solar, although the ability to do this will depend on whether neighboring regions also move to integrate more carbon-free resources. As Duke Energy moves toward both the 2030 and 2050 targets, addressing energy needs during the winter peak period becomes particularly important, and the system relies on the availability of resources such as renewable or hydrogen combustion turbines, seasonal storage, or other similar technologies that are dispatchable but able to operate at low capacity factors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗