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DOE OSTI2022

Energy Storage Financing: Operations & Market Strategy

This study investigates the impact that operations and market strategy have on the design and value of an energy storage system on three levels of the facility: the cell level, the system level, and the project level. The study provides insights for developers, capital providers, customers and policy makers into the impact different operational strategies have on effectiveness of energy storage system in today's emerging market. Energy storage systems can be used for a variety of usage profiles, with the choice having a profound impact on their performance, lifespan, and revenue potential. Most evaluations of application stacking only look at the possible revenue potential without understanding the increased costs and potential for major damage to the cells. Evaluating the impact of operational choices is critical to understanding the risk adjusted return from energy storage project investment. This is the fifth study in the Energy Storage Financing Study series, which is designed to investigate challenges surrounding the financing of energy storage projects in the U.S., promoting greater technology and project risk transparency, reducing project transaction costs, and supporting a level playing field for innovative energy storage technologies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Increased Occurrence of Large–Scale Windthrows Across the Amazon Basin

Convective storms with strong downdrafts create windthrows: snapped and uprooted trees that locally alter the structure, composition, and carbon balance of forests. Comparing Landsat imagery from subsequent years, we documented temporal and spatial variation in the occurrence of large (≥30 ha) windthrows across the Amazon basin from 1985 to 2020. Over 33 individual years, we detected 3179 large windthrows. Windthrow density was greatest in the central and western Amazon regions, with ~33% of all events occurring in ~3% of the monitored area. Return intervals for large windthrows in the same location of these “hotspot” regions are centuries to millennia, while over the rest of the Amazon they are >10,000 years. Our data demonstrate a nearly 4–fold increase in windthrow number and affected area between 1985 (78 windthrows and 6,900 ha) and 2020 (264 events and 32,170 ha), with more events of >500 ha size since 1990. Such extremely large events (>500 ha up to 2,543 ha) are responsible for interannual variation in the overall median (84 ± 5.2 ha; ±95% CI) and mean (147 ± 13 ha) windthrow area, but we did not find significant temporal trends in the size distribution of windthrows with time. Our results document increased damage from convective storms over the past 40 years in the Amazon, filling a gap in temporal records for tropical regions. Our publicly accessible large windthrow database provides a valuable tool for exploring dynamic conditions leading to damaging storms and their ecological impact on Amazon forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Graph Neural Networks for Surrogate Modeling of Offshore Floating Platforms

Floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) present an significant opportunity to increase renewable energy generation. However, significant challenges remain before FOWTs can be widely commercialized and deployed. In particular, hydrodynamic loading on the platforms can stress the overall structure, damage the mooring systems, and impact power generation. Studying these loads is difficult and often relies on computationally expensive models or experiments. In this work, we explore the use of graph neural networks (GNNs) to construct flexible, data-driven surrogates for hydrodynamic loads on platforms. We leverage the natural graph-like structure of offshore wind platform designs to enable the GNN model to learn to approximate the loads for different wave conditions and structural designs. We demonstrate potential uses for the surrogate by performing parameter sweeps and ridge analysis on the trained model to identify the impacts of different wave and structural features on the loads.

floating offshore wind turbines↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intern Deliverable Poster 2025

An Incident Response Plan (IRP) is a document that is created and maintained by an organization that provides guidance in the event of a cyber incident. The primary objectives of an IRP are to aid in the detection, response, and recovery from incidents, as well as to enhance preparation and preventative measures. An IRP should outline specific procedures at each stage of an incident, with the goal of minimizing asset damage, data leakage, and operational impact. By investing in a well-defined IRP, organizations can better manage and mitigate risks associated with cyber threats, ensuring business continuity and resilience. This poster summarizes incident response guidelines for wind energy, which faces unique cybersecurity and physical challenges.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A model for oblique impacts on material surfaces

Many practical situations of material damage, wear, and erosion involve collisions between small particles and surfaces at inclined angles. While there are many well-validated models of normal incidence impact situations, elastic-plastic models for oblique incidence impact events are lacking. Here the finite element method is used to predict the normal and tangential coefficient of restitution in oblique impacts for hard, elastic spheres impacting an elastic-perfectly plastic material surface. The proposed model covers various impact angles ranging from 0° to 45°, within a limiting impact velocity below which the effects of heating are negligible. The normal coefficient of restitution follows power-laws with respect to normalized values of the impact velocity. Interestingly, the tangential coefficient of restitution follows a linear relationship with impact velocity. Together, these results provide a semi-empirical set of equations predicting oblique impact rebounds (both velocity and trajectory) for a wide range of conditions and material properties, with which experimental results can be rapidly interpreted. As a result, Laser-Induced Particle Impact Test (LIPIT) data are also presented for aluminum particles impacting aluminum substrates, at impact angles of 25° and 40°; the results compare favorably with the model and validate the general use of such models for the analysis of experimental data.

Coefficient of restitution↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transmission Line Based Sensor Design for FMCW Radar Processing of Collision Damage

This report presents a framework for transmission line ( T-L ) sensor design in Frequency Modulated Continuous Wave (FMCW) radar applications, with particular emphasis on modeling collision damage effects. Classical electromagnetic (EM) propagation theory is combined with impact mechanics to develop a model for analyzing transmission line behavior as a sensor under high-velocity impact conditions. The framework includes detailed mathematical derivations, spatial and temporal damage evolution models, and practical implementation considerations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

The effect of blood viscosity on shear‐induced hemolysis using a magnetically levitated shearing device

Abstract Introduction Blood contacting medical devices, including rotary blood pumps, can cause shear‐induced blood damage that may lead to adverse effects in patients. Due in part to an inadequate understanding of how cell‐scale fluid mechanics impact red blood cell membrane deformation and damage, there is currently not a uniformly accepted engineering model for predicting blood damage caused by complex flow fields within ventricular assist devices (VADs). Methods We empirically investigated hemolysis in a magnetically levitated axial Couette flow device typical of a rotary VAD. The device is able to accurately control the shear rate and exposure time experienced by blood and to minimize the effects of other uncharacterized stresses. Using this device, we explored the effects of both hematocrit and plasma viscosity on shear‐induced hemolysis to characterize blood damage based on the viscosity‐independent shear rate, rather than on shear stress. Results Over a shear rate range of 20 000 – 80 000 1/s, the Index of Hemolysis (IH) was found to be dependent upon and well‐predicted by the shear rate alone. IH was independent of hematocrit, bulk viscosity, or the suspension media viscosity and less correlated to shear stress (MSE = 0.46–0.75) than to shear rate (MSE = 0.06–0.09). Conclusion This study recommends that future investigations of shear‐induced blood damage report findings with respect to the viscosity‐neutral term of shear rate, in addition to the bulk whole blood viscosity measured at an appropriate shear rate relevant to the flow conditions of the device.

Krisher, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Laser ablation for structuring Li-ion electrodes for fast charging and its impact on material properties, rate capability, Li plating, and wetting

Laser ablation is a scalable technique for decreasing the effective tortuosity of electrodes by selectively removing material with high precision. Applied to ≈ 110 um thick electrode coatings, this work focuses on understanding the impact of laser ablation on electrode material properties at the beginning of life and synergistic impacts of ablated channels on cell performance throughout their cycle life. Post laser ablation, local changes in chemistry, crystallography, and morphology of the laser-impacted electrode regions are investigated. It is shown that femtosecond pulsed laser ablation can achieve high-rate material removal with minor material damage locally at the interface of the impacted zones. The capacity achieved during a 6C (10 min) constant-current constant-voltage charge to 4.2 V improved from 1 mAh cm -2 for the non-ablated electrodes to almost 2 mAh cm -2 for the ablated electrodes. This benefit is attributed to a synergistic effect of enhanced wetting and decreased electrode tortuosity. The benefit was maintained for over 120 cycles, and upon disassembly decreased Li-plating on the graphite anode was observed. Finally, multi-physics modeling in conjunction with wetting analyses showed that laser ablating either one of the electrodes led to substantial improvements in wetting and rate capability, indicating that substantial performance benefits can be achieved by ablating only the graphite anode as apposed to both electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Literature Review of Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and Geomagnetic Disturbance (GMD) Effects on Oil and Gas Pipeline Systems

This document summarizes the findings of a review of published literature regarding the potential impacts of electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and geomagnetic disturbance (GMD) phenomena on oil and gas pipeline systems. The impacts of telluric currents on pipelines and their associated cathodic protection systems has been well studied. The existing literature describes implications for corrosion protection system design and monitoring to mitigate these impacts. Effects of an EMP on pipelines is not a thoroughly explored subject. Most directly related articles only present theoretical models and approaches rather than specific analyses and in-field testing. Literature on SCADA components and EMP is similarly sparse and the existing articles show a variety of impacts to control system components that range from upset and damage to no effect. The limited research and the range of observed impacts for the research that has been published suggests the need for additional work on GMD and EMP and natural gas SCADA components.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2025

Statistical evaluation of microscale stress conditions leading to void nucleation in the weak shock regime

Here, we investigate the heterogeneity of the stress state driven by anisotropic deformation response at the single crystal level through five statistical volume element (SVE) calculations of polycrystalline BCC tantalum. This work focuses on grain boundaries as a prominent material defect type prone to void nucleation based upon experimental observations of predominantly intergranular void nucleation in this material. The SVEs are constructed to be statistically representative of larger volumes of material and are meshed such that mean and standard deviation of grain size and orientation information is reconstructed. The computational meshes feature hexahedral (brick) elements and smooth conformal grain boundaries where significant stress concentration is known to occur, a tail effect of interest in the extreme events process of dynamic ductile damage. An existing micromechanical crystallographic plasticity model shown to capture the single crystal behavior of BCC tantalum well is used to perform the polycrystal calculations. The model includes representation of the non-Schmid effect of non-planar screw dislocation kinetics in tantalum. A three-dimensional stress state time profile predicted by damage modeling of a flyer plate impact experiment is applied as boundary conditions to each SVE. Resulting grain boundary stress state statistics are strongly non-Gaussian. Significant structural evolution is observed within the compressive hold before unloading into tension in the stress profile. Strong angular dependence of grain boundary traction magnitude with shock direction is observed. Non-Schmid effects continue to suggest their influence on propensity of microstructural defect types to nucleate voids. A general void nucleation criterion is proposed using probability theory. The general framework is specified to polycrystalline BCC tantalum in the weak shock regime to include the SVE calculations and literature molecular dynamics calculations of grain boundary void nucleation strength. Probability density functions (PDFs) are used to describe the interaction between the local stress state heterogeneity and the distributed grain boundary void nucleation strength state. A causation entropy maximization procedure removes the requirement for ad hoc selection of a PDF functional form and provides a rigorous procedure for data-based PDF determination. The resulting physically informed PDF describes the spatial appearance frequency of nucleated voids as a function of applied macroscale pressure. Lower length scale physics are thus packaged in a precise and computationally efficient way to provide computational plasticity insight to macroscale dynamic ductile damage models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phase stability and microstructure of neutron-irradiated substoichiometric yttrium dihydrides

The impact of the neutron-displacement damage on phase stability and microstructure of substoichiometric yttrium dihydrides (YH x , x <2) were investigated to assess their use as solid moderator in high-temperature nuclear reactors. YH x specimens were, thus, subjected to neutron irradiations in the range of 0.1–2 displacements per yttrium atom (dpa-Y) in the temperature range of 536–878°C at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL's) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). YH x specimens were initially prepared at stoichiometry (H/Y) ratios of 1.69 and 1.83. HFIR-irradiated specimens were characterized by variety of techniques to investigate H retention characteristics including dimensional analysis, optical microscopy, scanning electron microscopy electron back scatter diffraction (EBSD), transmission electron microscopy, thermal desorption spectroscopy (TDS), and high-energy x-ray diffraction (HE-XRD) characterizations. Overall, YH x exhibited notable structural and phase stability under short-term neutron-irradiation, except for the samples with significant silicon carbide (SiC) interaction at high doses and temperatures. Basic dimensional and mass measurements were misleading for accurate assessment of H retention, as confirmed by EBSD phase maps, XRD line profiles, and TDS signals. Thus, it was discussed that a robust H retention metric is needed to assess irradiated hydrides. Further, nanoscale cavities were observed as a result of the neutron irradiation in all samples. Although no clear impact of dose and irradiation temperature was determined, the initial H/Y ratio had an impact on the cavity number density where low H/Y specimens had high-resistance to cavity formation. The Y-vacancy cluster formation at the collision stage of the displacement cascade and their stabilization by H were considered to be the likely underlying mechanisms for the observed cavity microstructure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Insights from a coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical analysis of a layered high-temperature thermal energy storage reservoir

Coupled thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) modeling is applied to investigate the performance of a seasonal high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage operation based on data and conditions from current site investigations at the Geostorage Forsthaus pilot project in Bern (Switzerland). The model includes subhorizontal sand lenses of various lengths and dips that are embedded in a low permeability clay matrix. Thermal energy storage is simulated by seasonal injection and withdrawal of hot (up to 90 °C) water from a main well, with reservoir pressure regulated by two auxiliary wells at a distance of about 70 m from the main well. The results show how targeted injection into deeper permeable storage formations, along with active deep well pressure control, can effectively minimize geomechanical impact and the potential risk of damaging subsurface storage and sealing formations, or even surface facilities. With such pressure control, the subsurface mechanical responses are dominated by thermal strain and stress, which can be monitored with subsurface fiber optics. The study demonstrates how coupled THM modeling can be applied for the design of a safe and efficient thermal energy storage operation, and how subsurface fiber optic monitoring can be applied for performance confirmation, allowing for more confident operational forecasting.

Rutqvist, Jonny↗

DOE OSTI2021

Radiation effects on stress evolution and dimensional stability of large fusion energy structures

Here we assess the effects of neutron irradiation on the deformation and stress evolution of large-scale fusion energy structures. This is accomplished through non-linear finite element structural analysis of the coupled thermal and mechanical fields at the Beginning-Of-Life (BOL), at 45 dpa, and at 90 dpa. Radiation effects include volumetric swelling and the influence of radiation on the mechanical properties. The system studied here is a large section of a full inboard module of an integrated structure comprising the First Wall and Blanket (FW/B) of a Dual Cooled Lithium-Lead (DCLL) energy conversion unit in the Fusion Nuclear Science Facility (FNSF). The structural material is the ferritic/martensitic steel F82H. We analyze several radiation effects phenomena that can lead to significant impact on the mechanical design and lifetime of the structure. These include volumetric swelling effects on the assembly and disassembly of modules and the impact of spatial gradients in neutron damage and helium generation on deformation, stress evolution, and plastic strain accumulation. We show that the stress state is strongly influenced by the accumulation of swelling strains, radiation hardening and softening, and by spatial gradients in displacement damage and helium gas generation. Several key regions in the FW/B structure are identified where severe plastic strains accumulate and may be potential sites for failure, especially during cyclic reactor operations. We finally show that minimum gaps between Inboard (IB) blanket sectors must be present during assembly so as to avoid excessive stress and strain in FW/B modules critical regions and raising chances of failure. A range of structural displacements are shown, from as low as 4 mm at BOL for free side walls to as high as 46 mm at 90 dpa for fully constrained side walls.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

On-demand fabrication of piezoelectric sensors for in-space structural health monitoring

Abstract Inflatable structures, promising for future deep space exploration missions, are vulnerable to damage from micrometeoroid and orbital debris impacts. Polyvinylidene fluoride-trifluoroethylene (PVDF-trFE) is a flexible, biocompatible, and chemical-resistant material capable of detecting impact forces due to its piezoelectric properties. This study used a state-of-the-art material extrusion system that has been validated for in-space manufacturing, to facilitate fast-prototyping of consistent and uniform PVDF-trFE films. By systematically investigating ink synthesis, printer settings, and post-processing conditions, this research established a comprehensive understanding of the process-structure-property relationship of printed PVDF-trFE. Consequently, this study consistently achieved the printing of PVDF-trFE films with a thickness of around 40 µ m, accompanied by an impressive piezoelectric coefficient of up to 25 pC N −1 . Additionally, an all-printed dynamic force sensor, featuring a sensitivity of 1.18 V N −1 , was produced by mix printing commercial electrically-conductive silver inks with the customized PVDF-trFE inks. This pioneering on-demand fabrication technique for PVDF-trFE films empowers future astronauts to design and manufacture piezoelectric sensors while in space, thereby significantly enhancing the affordability and sustainability of deep space exploration missions.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act and Bipartisan Infrastructure Law on the U.S. Power System

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) and the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, commonly referred to as the 'Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL),' collectively represent the largest commitment of the U.S. Federal Government to invest in the modernization and decarbonization of the U.S. energy system. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that total support for the broad range of climate and clean energy programs, tax credits, and other incentives authorized through the two laws will exceed $430 billion from 2022 through 2031 (CRS 2022; CBO 2021, 2022). While the climate and clean energy provisions are numerous and have the potential to impact all aspects of the U.S. energy system from fuel and electricity production to final consumption in industry, transportation, and buildings, the provisions relevant to the electricity sector - in particular the suite of tax credits for clean generation, storage, and carbon dioxide ( CO 2 ) capture and storage - are expected to be some of the most consequential in terms of emissions reduction and clean energy deployment (Larsen et al. 2022; Jenkins, Mayfield, et al. 2022; Mahajan et al. 2022; Zhao et al. 2022). In this report, we detail the methods and results of a study estimating the potential impacts of key provisions of IRA and BIL on the contiguous U.S. power sector from present day through 2030. The analysis employs an advanced power system planning model, the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), to evaluate how major provisions from both laws impact investment in and operation of utility-scale generation, storage, and transmission, and, in turn, how those changes impact power system costs, emissions, and climate and health damages. While not exhaustive in capturing every provision, the analysis estimates the possible scale of power-sector impacts that could result from the modeled provisions in IRA and BIL. The study is structured around two scenarios to evaluate the potential impacts of both laws on the power sector: 1) No New Policy: A counter-factual scenario that reflects all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, with exception to IRA and BIL, and assumes load growth consistent with the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2022 (AEO22) Reference case (EIA 2022a); 2) IRA-BIL: A scenario reflecting all Federal and state policies enacted as of September 2022, including key IRA and BIL provisions, most notably the investment and production tax credits for zero-carbon emitting electricity generation and storage (ITC and PTC), the tax credit for CO 2 capture and storage (45Q), and the tax credit for existing nuclear plants (described further in Section 2.3). To account for the impacts of IRA and BIL on electrification, assumes increased load growth consistent with a scaled version of the Medium Electrification scenario from the Electrification Futures Study (Mai et al. 2018). These scenarios are simulated across seven sets of assumptions with varying projected future electricity market conditions, including technology costs and performance, natural gas prices, and the degree of availability, feasibility, and cost of development of renewable resources, electricity transmission, and CO 2 pipeline, injection, and storage infrastructure. In addition, we simulate two sensitivities on the 'policy' treatment in which we vary key assumptions pertaining to the realized value of the clean electricity ITC and PTC: 1) the cost of monetization of tax credits, and 2) the level of bonus crediting realized by project developers. We demonstrate that IRA and BIL have the collective potential to drive substantial growth in clean electricity by 2030, while reducing costs for consumers, mitigating climate change, and decreasing the human health impacts of power sector emissions. However, we also demonstrate that if expected cost improvements of clean technologies are not realized and/or constraints on deployment driven by factors such as supply-chain challenges, regulatory hurdles, and the social acceptability of energy infrastructure development limit the rate of clean energy and associated infrastructure deployment (such as transmission), then the share of clean generation achieved and the associated emissions benefits realized may be substantively reduced.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Using satellite data to assess Hurricane Helene’s impact on vegetation by land use in the CSRA

Many regions within Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina experienced record-breaking rainfall and catastrophic winds due to Hurricane Helene. Helene made landfall on Florida’s big bend on September 26 th , 2024, as a category 4 hurricane, and tracked northward through Georgia and the southern Appalachian Mountains before dissipating on September 29 th , 2024. One significant impact of the hurricane was severe damage to tree canopies across the southeastern United States. This study utilizes satellite-based remotely sensed data provided by the National Aeronautical and Space Administration (NASA) to examine the resilience of these tree canopies following the hurricane. Specifically, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Land Cover Type, Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission datasets were employed to study the tree canopy’s response to such events in the Central Savannah River Area (CSRA). A significant increase was observed in the LAI in November of 2024. This increase in LAI was likely influenced by warmer-than-average temperatures throughout October of 2024, along with a second record-breaking rainfall event in the CSRA on November 6th, 2024. The LAI increase was then broken down into land cover type to understand which areas contributed most. The complex nature and resilience of trees became evident, offering opportunities for further exploration and application in urban planning, emergency response, and environmental management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗