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At least 109 records · Page 6

Improved Cost Estimates to Boost Pumped Storage Hydropower Construction

Pumped storage hydropower is often overlooked in future grid planning efforts, in part because the cost to build a new facility is not always clear. That's why the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), along with the U.S. Department of Energy's Water Power Technologies Office, is developing improved cost estimates and cost models to reduce that uncertainty and give developers the data they need to decide where and when to construct new PSH facilities to support the country's evolving energy grid.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,HYDRO ENERGY↗

ICE Calculator 2.0: Final Report for Phase 1 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE 2.0 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE 2.0 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 of the ICE 2.0 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 1 involved 11 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 24 electricity distribution service territories, 23 of them located in the Eastern and Midwestern regions of the U.S. and one located in the Pacific Northwest. ICE 2.0 vs. 1.0 Comparison This memorandum compares customer power interruption costs estimated using the recently updated Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator (“ICE 2.0”) to the original ICE Calculator (“ICE 1.0”). ICE 1.0 was developed in 2009 based on 15 independent power interruption cost surveys conducted by 10 electric utilities between 1989 and 2012. ICE 2.0 was developed in 2025 through a national initiative based on a consistent set of power interruption cost surveys and 11 surveying efforts conducted across 24 electric utility service territories between 2022 and 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Estimating Costs Of Aerospace Construction

Report presents brief descriptions of techniques, instructional and reference literature, computer hardware and software, and compilations of data used to estimate costs of specially equipped buildings and other aerospace construction projects. Descriptions replete with practical examples. Experiences gained in estimating costs of specific projects included.

Brown, Joseph A.↗

Energy Cost Estimate Tool v2.0: Methodology and Usage

Information about home energy costs is essential for appraisers, lenders, and buyers, but reliable data are often unavailable in real estate transactions. To fill this gap, the National Laboratory of the Rockies developed the Energy Cost Estimate (ECE) tool. The tool provides flexible, data-driven estimates of annual household energy use and costs across the contiguous United States, using only a small number of inputs typically found in mortgage appraisals. This report presents the methodology behind version 2.0 of the ECE tool, demonstrates how users can generate estimates through its interface, and discusses its applications and limitations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

COMPACT KNN V2: Analogy-Based Cost Estimation Model for CubeSats

The CubeSat Or Microsat Probabilistic and AnalogiesCost Tool, or COMPACT, is a NASA Headquarters fundedeffort to fill the gap in cost estimating capabilities for CubeSats,as well as other microsat spacecraft. The COMPACT team hasfocused mainly on CubeSats to date, and has collected technical,programmatic and cost data on dozens of flown CubeSatsmissions led by NASA, research labs, and universities. In late2019, the team released the first tool prototype which uses a nonparametricregression technique, k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN),on actual data from historical CubeSat missions to produceearly ballpark analogy-based cost estimates for new CubeSatconcepts. Since the KNN prototype was first released, theCOMPACT team has normalized 17 new missions to be addedto the model in COMPACT V2. COMPACT V2 also featureschanges to the KNN tool algorithm including the introduction ofPrincipal Component Analysis (PCA) to the model developmentprocess and changes to the input parameters which have madethe analogy results more intuitive and have improved modelperformance. This paper describes the current COMPACTKNN dataset, improvements made to the model in COMPACTV2, an assessment of current model performance, and a forwardlook at COMPACT’s planned future enhancements.

Hooke, Melissa↗

FC-PLACER (Fuel Cell Plant Layout and Cost Estimation Resource) [SWR-26-027]

The Fuel Cell Plant Layout and Cost Estimation Resource (FC-PLACER) is a tool to perform a footprint and cost analysis for hydrogen fuel cell based power plants. This analysis tool provides a comprehensive design and cost assessment for a 100-MW stationary PEM fuel cell power plant, utilizing specifications from commercially available PEM fuel cell modules originally designed for heavy-duty vehicle applications. Additionally, the tool offers flexibility, enabling adaptation to various capacity requirements or plant configurations and facilitating the evaluation of system layout and overnight costs. In particular, it includes a detailed accounting of balance of plant material and labor costs and enables a precise estimate of plant spatial footprint.

Reznicek, Evan [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗

Dilute and Dispose Cost Estimate for Equipment Installation per the LCCE

As directed in the Consolidation Appropriations Act, 2016, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) initiated the preconceptual design and development of a Lifecycle Cost Estimate for the Surplus Plutonium Disposition (SPD) Dilute and Dispose Program. Based on August 2016 Program Requirements Document and subsequent supplemental guidance, LANL prepared the Lifecycle Cost Estimate under key assumptions that meet the program’s requirements. For Dilute and Dispose, the program would disposition surplus Pu by diluting oxide produced at LANL with inhibitor materials, packaging the materials in containers, and shipping the containers to a deep geologic repository for permanent disposal. The base assumption is that LANL would disassemble pits, convert the Pu metal to oxide, and characterize and package the material for shipment to SRS, where it would be diluted prior to geologic disposal at the WIPP site in New Mexico. Another major assumption for the Dilute and Dispose option is that LANL would increase the current oxide production rate (or throughput) to 1500 kg/year, 5 times higher than the maximum annual production of ~300 Kgs executed by the ARIES Oxide Production Program at LANL. Analysis based on the ARIES program’s throughput model revealed that 15 pieces of equipment would need to be installed within PF-4 and certain facility improvements would need to be accomplished in order to meet the desired throughput levels. The additional equipment would be essentially identical to equipment already used within PF-4 for existing operations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Blind Validation Study of Parametric Cost Estimation Tool SEER-H for NASA Space Missions

One of the primary parametric cost modeling tools used by NASA and the aerospace industry to estimate the development and production cost of future spacecraft hardware is SEER-H by Galorath. To date, no independent validation of this tool for cost estimation of space missions has been reported in the literature. In the present validation study, cost estimators used SEER-H to estimate the cost of twelve different past NASA science missions. The estimators were prevented from knowing the actual cost of the missions in an effort to minimize cognitive biases. The point estimates of SEER-H had an average error of 23%, median error of -0.3%, and a standard deviation of 43%. Nine of the twelve mission's actual costs fell within the 80% confidence interval of SEER's probabilistic estimates. Several factors independent of SEER that may have affected the accuracy of the results have been identified and are discussed; these include: uncertainty in the technical data used for the estimates, the methods used to estimate uncertainty in spacecraft component mass and numbers of prototypes, and the experience of the estimators.

SEER-H↗

Major weapon system environmental life-cycle cost estimating for Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C3P2)

The Titan 4 Space Launch Vehicle Program is one of many major weapon system programs that have modified acquisition plans and operational procedures to meet new, stringent environmental rules and regulations. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) mandate to reduce the use of ozone depleting chemicals (ODC's) is just one of the regulatory changes that has affected the program. In the last few years, public environmental awareness, coupled with stricter environmental regulations, has created the need for DOD to produce environmental life-cycle cost estimates (ELCCE) for every major weapon system acquisition program. The environmental impact of the weapon system must be assessed and budgeted, considering all costs, from cradle to grave. The Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) has proposed that organizations consider Conservation, Cleanup, Compliance and Pollution Prevention (C(sup 3)P(sup 2)) issues associated with each acquisition program to assess life-cycle impacts and costs. The Air Force selected the Titan 4 system as the pilot program for estimating life-cycle environmental costs. The estimating task required participants to develop an ELCCE methodology, collect data to test the methodology and produce a credible cost estimate within the DOD C(sup 3)P(sup 2) definition. The estimating methodology included using the Program Office weapon system description and work breakdown structure together with operational site and manufacturing plant visits to identify environmental cost drivers. The results of the Titan IV ELCCE process are discussed and expanded to demonstrate how they can be applied to satisfy any life-cycle environmental cost estimating requirement.

Hammond, Wesley↗

Cost estimating methods for advanced space systems

The development of parametric cost estimating methods for advanced space systems in the conceptual design phase is discussed. The process of identifying variables which drive cost and the relationship between weight and cost are discussed. A theoretical model of cost is developed and tested using a historical data base of research and development projects.

Cyr, Kelley↗

Detailed Design and Cost Estimation of a 300 MWe Oxy-Fuel sCO2 Turbine

The detailed design of a 300 MWe, utility scale oxy-fuel turbine has been completed for purposed operation in the sCO2 direct fired Allam-Fetvedt cycle, targeting near-zero emissions and a 50% LHV system efficiency. The turbine and its supporting plant aim to offer a lower levelized cost of energy than a natural gas combined cycle plant employing carbon capture. The oxy-fuel turbine conditions include an inlet temperature of 1150°C and inlet pressure of 305 bar, representing temperatures near that of a gas turbine simultaneously with pressures near an ultra-supercritical steam turbine. The combustor housing and turbine designs were completed according to the ASME BPVC; the turbine case specifically incorporates a multi-body design with inner high-pressure barrel case and low-pressure (30 bar) horizontally split outer case of low-chromium steel material. Lateral rotordynamic evaluation demonstrated acceptable vibration response for a range of imbalance conditions per API standards. The cooling flow required in the six-stage turbine flowpath for 30,000 hr. blade and stator lifetime is predicted through thermal and structural modeling of the first stage. The provided cost estimate of the turbine is formed through a combination of scaled up-costs from procured 10 MWe scale sCO2 turbomachinery hardware, and vendor provided budgetary quotes of larger components including the turbine case requiring casting, welding, and final machining processes. The performance and cost estimation of the oxy-fuel turbine predicted for the completed detailed design provides important information towards future development needs for market penetration of utility scale direct fired sCO2 power cycles.

Marshall, Michael [Southwest Research Institute, S↗