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105 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using Machine Learning to Generate a GISS ModelE Calibrated Physics Ensemble (CPE)

A neural network (NN) surrogate of the NASA GISS ModelE atmosphere (version E3) is trained on a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) spanning 45 physics parameters and 36 outputs. The NN is leveraged in a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Bayesian parameter inference framework to generate a second posterior constrained ensemble coined a “calibrated physics ensemble,” or CPE. The CPE members are characterized by diverse parameter combinations and are, by definition, close to top-of-atmosphere radiative balance, and must broadly agree with numerous hydrologic, energy cycle and radiative forcing metrics simultaneously. Global observations of numerous cloud, environment, and radiation properties (provided by global satellite products) are crucial for CPE generation. The inference framework explicitly accounts for discrepancies (or biases) in satellite products during CPE generation. We demonstrate that product discrepancies strongly impact calibration of important model parameter settings (e.g., convective plume entrainment rates; fall speed for cloud ice). Structural improvements new to E3 are retained across CPE members (e.g., stratocumulus simulation). Notably, the framework improved the simulation of shallow cumulus and Amazon rainfall while not degrading radiation fields, an upgrade that neither default parameters nor Latin Hypercube parameter searching achieved. Analyses of the initial PPE suggested several parameters were unimportant for output variation. However, many “unimportant” parameters were needed for CPE generation, a result that brings to the forefront how parameter importance should be determined in PPEs. From the CPE, two diverse 45-dimensional parameter configurations are retained to generate radiatively-balanced, auto-tuned atmospheres that were used in two E3 submissions to CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian SegNet for Semantic Segmentation with Improved Interpretation of Microstructural Evolution During Irradiation of Materials

Understanding the relationship between the evolution of microstructures of irradiated LiAlO2pellets and tritium diffusion, retention and release could improve predictions of tritium performance. Given expert-labeled segmented images of irradiated and unirradiated pellets, we trained Deep Convolutional Neural Networks to segment images into defect, grain, and boundary classes. Qualitative microstructural information was calculated from these segmented images to facilitate the comparison of unirradiated and irradiated pellets. We tested modifications to improve the sensitivity of the model, including incorporating meta-data into the model and utilizing uncertainty quantification. The predicted segmentation was similar to the expert-labeled segmentation for most methods of microstructural qualification, including pixel proportion, defect area, and defect density. Overall, the high performance metrics for the best models for both irradiated and unirradiated images shows that utilizing neural network models is a viable alternative to expert-labeled images.

Oostrom, Marjolein T.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic machine learning via sigma profiles to build a digital chemical space

This work establishes a different paradigm on digital molecular spaces and their efficient navigation by exploiting sigma profiles. To do so, the remarkable capability of Gaussian processes (GPs), a type of stochastic machine learning model, to correlate and predict physicochemical properties from sigma profiles is demonstrated, outperforming state-of-the-art neural networks previously published. The amount of chemical information encoded in sigma profiles eases the learning burden of machine learning models, permitting the training of GPs on small datasets which, due to their negligible computational cost and ease of implementation, are ideal models to be combined with optimization tools such as gradient search or Bayesian optimization (BO). Gradient search is used to efficiently navigate the sigma profile digital space, quickly converging to local extrema of target physicochemical properties. While this requires the availability of pretrained GP models on existing datasets, such limitations are eliminated with the implementation of BO, which can find global extrema with a limited number of iterations. A remarkable example of this is that of BO toward boiling temperature optimization. Holding no knowledge of chemistry except for the sigma profile and boiling temperature of carbon monoxide (the worst possible initial guess), BO finds the global maximum of the available boiling temperature dataset (over 1,000 molecules encompassing more than 40 families of organic and inorganic compounds) in just 15 iterations (i.e., 15 property measurements), cementing sigma profiles as a powerful digital chemical space for molecular optimization and discovery, particularly when little to no experimental data is initially available.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

$\mathrm{SageNet}$: Fast Neural Network Emulation of the Stiff-amplified Gravitational Waves from Inflation

Accurate modeling of the inflationary gravitational waves (GWs) requires time-consuming, iterative numerical integrations of differential equations to take into account their backreaction on the expansion history. To improve computational efficiency while preserving accuracy, we present the Stiff-amplified Gravitational-wave Emulator Network (SageNet), a deep learning framework designed to replace conventional numerical solvers (code available at https://github.com/YifangLuo/SageNet). SageNet employs a long short-term memory architecture to emulate the present-day energy density spectrum of the inflationary GWs with possible stiff amplification, Ω GW (f). Trained on a data set of 25,689 numerically generated solutions, SageNet allows accurate reconstructions of Ω GW (f) and generalizes well to a wide range of cosmological parameters; 90.9% of the test emulations with randomly distributed parameters exhibit errors of under 4%. In addition, SageNet demonstrates its ability to learn and reproduce the artificial, adaptive sampling patterns in numerical calculations, which implement denser sampling of frequencies around changes in spectral indices in Ω GW (f). The dual capability of learning both physical and artificial features of the numerical GW spectra establishes SageNet as a robust alternative to exact numerical methods. Finally, our benchmark tests show that SageNet reduces the computation time from tens of seconds to milliseconds, achieving a speedup of ∼10 4 times over standard CPU-based numerical solvers with the potential for further acceleration on GPU hardware. These capabilities make SageNet a powerful tool for accelerating Bayesian inference procedures for extended cosmological models. In a broad sense, the SageNet framework offers a fast, accurate, and generalizable solution to modeling cosmological observables whose theoretical predictions demand costly differential equation solvers.

Astronomy data modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards a data-driven model of hadronization using normalizing flows

We introduce a model of hadronization based on invertible neural networks that faithfully reproduces a simplified version of the Lund string model for meson hadronization. Additionally, we introduce a new training method for normalizing flows, termed MAGIC, that improves the agreement between simulated and experimental distributions of high-level (macroscopic) observables by adjusting single-emission (microscopic) dynamics. Our results constitute an important step toward realizing a machine-learning based model of hadronization that utilizes experimental data during training. Finally, we demonstrate how a Bayesian extension to this normalizing-flow architecture can be used to provide analysis of statistical and modeling uncertainties on the generated observable distributions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable and Differentiable Reinforcement Learning for Multi-objective Optimization in Particle Accelerators

Operating particle accelerators involves optimizing multiple goals simultaneously, which can be challenging due to trade-offs among objectives. While evolutionary algorithms like the genetic algorithm (GA) have been used for various Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) tasks, they are not inherently suited for complex control problems. This talk highlights two variations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for concurrently optimizing heat load and trip rates at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The problem involves strict constraints on individual states, actions, and overall energy requirements of the beam. First, this talk highlights how differentiability can be harnessed through a Deep Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) approach to address MOO issues within particle accelerators. We examine the DDRL method alongside Model Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), GA, and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The performance of these methods is assessed by generating a Pareto-front for two objectives. Our findings indicate that DDRL excels in handling high-dimensional problems more effectively than MFRL, BO, and GA. Next, we will show integration of explainable physics-based constraints into RL algorithms to enhance trans- parency and trust in decision-making processes by enabling users to verify that agents adhere to established physical principles. This surrogate function can be modeled using neural networks or sparse dictionary mod- els. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment provided but the surrogate model. In addi- tion, we find that the introduction of a mathematical functional dictionary based surrogate model enables our reinforcement learning algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator controls environments.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure–Property Linkage in Alloys Using Graph Neural Network and Explainable Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning tools have recently shown significant potential for accelerating the prediction of microstructure–property linkage in materials. While deep neural networks like convolution neural networks (CNNs) can extract physics information from 3D microstructure images, they often require a large network architecture and substantial training time. In this research, we trained a graph neural network (GNN) using phase field generated microstructures of Ni-Al alloys to predict the evolution of mechanical properties. We found that a single GNN is capable of accurately predicting the strengthening of Ni-Al alloys with microstructures of varying sizes and dimensions, which cannot otherwise be done with a CNN. Additionally, GNN requires significantly less GPU utilization than CNN and offers more interpretable explanation of predictions using saliency analysis as features are manually defined in the graph. We also utilize explainable artificial intelligence tool Bayesian Inference to determine the coefficients in the power law equation that governs coarsening of precipitates. Overall, our work demonstrates the ability of the GNN to accurately and efficiently extract relevant information from material microstructures without having restrictions on microstructure size or dimension and offers an interpretable explanation.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Statistician’s Overview of Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Spatio-Temporal Data

The recent success of deep neural network models with physical constraints (so-called, Physics-Informed Neural Networks, PINNs) has led to renewed interest in the incorporation of mechanistic information in predictive models. Statisticians and others have long been interested in this problem, which has led to several practical and innovative solutions dating back decades. In this overview, we focus on the problem of data-driven prediction and inference of dynamic spatio-temporal processes that include mechanistic information, such as would be available from partial differential equations, with a strong focus on the quantification of uncertainty associated with data, process, and parameters. Here, we give a brief review of several paradigms and focus our attention on Bayesian implementations given they naturally accommodate uncertainty quantification. We then show that it is straight-forward to include the Bayesian PINN (B-PINN) within the Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework that has long been considered for modeling dynamic spatio-temporal processes. Such a BHM-PINN is illustrated via a simulation study in which a latent nonlinear Burgers’ equation PDE governs the dynamics of Poisson distributed spatio-temporal data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online, including a standardized description of the materials available for reproducing the work.

Bayesian↗
DOE OSTI2026

DESI Strong Lens Foundry. I. HST Observations and Modeling with GIGA-Lens

We present the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Strong Lens Foundry. We discovered ∼3500 new strong gravitational lens candidates in the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys using residual neural networks (ResNet). We observed a subset (51) of our candidates using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Except for one ambiguous case, we have confirmed 50 of the 51 candidates to be strong lenses. We also briefly describe spectroscopic follow-up observations by DESI and Keck NIRES programs. From this very rich data set, a number of studies will be carried out, including evaluating the quality of the ResNet search candidates and lens modeling. In this paper, we present our initial effort in these directions. In particular, as a demonstration, we present the lens model for DESI-165.4754−06.0423, with imaging data from HST, and lens and source redshifts from DESI and Keck NIRES, respectively. In this effort, we have applied a fully forward-modeling Bayesian approach (GIGA-Lens), using multiple GPUs, to a strong lens with HST data, and achieved statistical convergence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Forward variable selection enables fast and accurate dynamic system identification with Karhunen-Loève decomposed Gaussian processes

A promising approach for scalable Gaussian processes (GPs) is the Karhunen-Loève (KL) decomposition, in which the GP kernel is represented by a set of basis functions which are the eigenfunctions of the kernel operator. Such decomposed kernels have the potential to be very fast, and do not depend on the selection of a reduced set of inducing points. However KL decompositions lead to high dimensionality, and variable selection thus becomes paramount. This paper reports a new method of forward variable selection, enabled by the ordered nature of the basis functions in the KL expansion of the Bayesian Smoothing Spline ANOVA kernel (BSS-ANOVA), coupled with fast Gibbs sampling in a fully Bayesian approach. It quickly and effectively limits the number of terms, yielding a method with competitive accuracies, training and inference times for tabular datasets of low feature set dimensionality. Theoretical computational complexities are O ( N P 2 ) in training and O ( P ) per point in inference, where N is the number of instances and P the number of expansion terms. The inference speed and accuracy makes the method especially useful for dynamic systems identification, by modeling the dynamics in the tangent space as a static problem, then integrating the learned dynamics using a high-order scheme. The methods are demonstrated on two dynamic datasets: a ‘Susceptible, Infected, Recovered’ (SIR) toy problem, along with the experimental ‘Cascaded Tanks’ benchmark dataset. Comparisons on the static prediction of time derivatives are made with a random forest (RF), a residual neural network (ResNet), and the Orthogonal Additive Kernel (OAK) inducing points scalable GP, while for the timeseries prediction comparisons are made with LSTM and GRU recurrent neural networks (RNNs) along with the SINDy package.

Hayes, Kyle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗