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At least 1,063 records · Page 59

On the highly directional expansion of laser-produced plasmas

The expansion of plasmas produced by focusing a CO2 laser pulse onto solid planar targets is discussed. The plasmas are studied using an extreme-ultraviolet spectroheliograph. With titanium and iron targets the plasma blow-off observed in transitions within highly ionized species (e.g., Fe XVI) occurs parallel to the target normal. The plasma is tightly confined to narrow cylindrical structures about 0.7 mm in diameter and is observed as far as 1 cm from the target surface. The electron density is about 2.8 by 10 to the 18th power per cu cm at a distance of 0.7 mm from the target surface and decreases to approximately 6.5 by 10 to the 17th power per cu cm at a distance of 2.9 mm from the surface.

Doschek, G. A.↗

Using Superconducting Thin Films in Microwave Lines

High temperature superconductors(HTS) and microwaves devices form the ideal partnership. The application of superconductors in microwave devices, components and systems allows the reduction in size, power consumption and insertion loss. The surface resistance of high-Tc superconductors has been found to be two orders of magnitude lower than normal conducting copper materials. The reduction in size and power requirements, which together both lead to a reduction in system mass, coupled with reasonably accessible operating temperatures, suggest that HTS microwave components should find ready application in satellite communications systems. At present, multi- channeling communication networks demand filters with narrow bandwidth in order to allow the available RF frequency spectrum to be partitioned into small frequency bands, -and possible variation of dielectric constant from substrate to substrate is undesirable. Microwave multiplexers demand the fabrication of two identical filters in each channel. Thus, the filter with tuning function is preferable. Tunable filters are the critical component for phased array antennas in order to electronically steer the radiated beam. To fabricate a tunable filter that uses an electric field for operation, one would like a material that provides a large change on dielectric constant for a given electric field, yet has a relatively low tangent in order to minimize the insertion loss of the device. Ferroelectrics have been the materials of choice. Their large dielectric constant sufficiently increases the coupling between microwave resonators and its dependence on electric field provides timability. Development of technology promises to diminish tangent loss. The use of thin ferroelectric films sufficiently decreases insertion losses keeping considerable potential for applications. NASA Lewis Research Center is the one of the leading centers in investigation of superconductors/ferroelectric tunable components for microwave devices. A large number of possible microwave devices were fabricated and tested on the basis of thin film multilayer superconductor-ferroelectric structures. In major cases the systems with edge-coupling scheme were investigated. Dr. Genkin has recently focused on the new potentialities which implements the using of thin ferroelectric films in filters fabricated with end-coupled microstrip lines. Numerical modeling shows that these systems have large potential for application in tunable narrow- and wide-bandpass filters in the frequency range 10-20 GHz. The phase shifter with end-coupled resonant sections was fabricated and tested. Experimental results show large tunability, particular in low voltages. The possible optimization of this structure promises to improve the obtained result and to reach the low level of insertion losses.

Genkin, Varery↗

Heat Transfer and Flow on the First Stage Blade Tip of a Power Generation Gas Turbine: Simulation Results - Part 2

A combined experimental and computational study has been performed to investigate the detailed distribution of convective heat transfer coefficients on the first stage blade tip surface for a geometry typical of large power generation turbines (>1OOMW). This paper is concerned with the numerical prediction of the tip surface heat transfer. Good comparison with the experimental measured distribution was achieved through accurate modeling of the most important features of the blade passage and heating arrangement as well as the details of experimental rig likely to affect the tip heat transfer. A sharp edge and a radiused edge tip were considered. The results using the radiused edge tip agreed better with the experimental data. This improved agreement was attributed to the absence of edge separation on the tip of the radiused edge blade.

Ameri, A. A.↗

Artificial Intelligence Based Control Power Optimization on Tailless Aircraft

Traditional methods of control allocation optimization have shown difficulties in exploiting the full potential of controlling large arrays of control devices on innovative air vehicles. Artificial neutral networks are inspired by biological nervous systems and neurocomputing has successfully been applied to a variety of complex optimization problems. This project investigates the potential of applying neurocomputing to the control allocation optimization problem of Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) aircraft concepts to minimize control power, hinge moments, and actuator forces, while keeping system weights within acceptable limits. The main objective of this project is to develop a proof-of-concept process suitable to demonstrate the potential of using neurocomputing for optimizing actuation power for aircraft featuring multiple independently actuated control surfaces. A Nastran aeroservoelastic finite element model is used to generate a learning database of hinge moment and actuation power characteristics for an array of flight conditions and control surface deflections. An artificial neural network incorporating a genetic algorithm then uses this training data to perform control allocation optimization for the investigated aircraft configuration. The phase I project showed that optimization results for the sum of required hinge moments are improved by more than 12% over the best Nastran solution by using the neural network optimization process.

Gern, Frank↗

Proposed Mars Surveyor Landing Sites in Northern Meridiani Sinus, Southern Elysium Planitia, and Argyre Planitia

Our objective is to propose two landing sites that the Mars Surveyor 2001 Lander and Athena Rover could go to on Mars that should meet the safety requirements of the spacecraft landing system and optimize surface operations (chiefly driven by power and communications requirements). An additional site within Argyre Planitia, initially proposed by Parker to the Mars Surveyor Landing Site program, is also proposed for potential consideration for post-2001 missions to Mars, as it is well outside the current latitude limits for the Athena Rover. All three sites are designed to be situated as close to a diversity of geologic units within a few kilometers of the landing site so that diversity can be placed in a geologic context. This objective is very different from the Mars Pathfinder requirement to land at a site with a maximum chance for containing a diversity of rocks within a few tens of meters of the lander. That requirement was driven by the Sojourner mobility limit of a few tens of meters. It can be argued that the Athena project, with its much larger mobility capability, might actually want to avoid such a site, because placing collected samples in geologic context would be difficult. While it has been argued, both before and after the Mars Pathfinder landing, that the provenance for local blocks may be determined by orbiter spectra, primarily from the MGS TES instrument, our ability to do so has yet to be demonstrated. Indeed, several months after conclusion of the Pathfinder mission, we have yet to reach a consensus on the composition of local materials. Our primary data set for selecting a landing site within the latitude and elevation constraints of the 2001 mission is the Viking Orbiter image archive. The site must be selected to place the landing ellipse so as to avoid obvious hazards, such as steep slopes, large or numerous craters, or abundant large knobs. For this purpose, we chose a resolution limit of better than 50 m/pixel. This necessarily excludes from the present study images from current and future orbiter spacecraft, until such data does become readily available. Within each proposed region, it may be possible to identify additional sites once these data become available. Second, the fine-component thermal inertia data, should be greater than about 5 or 6 cgs Units (10(exp -3) cal/sq cm s(exp -0.5)/K). Low thermal inertias imply dusty environments, which could pose a mobility hazard. Similarly, the albedo of the site should not be particularly high, which would also suggest dusty surfaces. Low albedos are preferred, as they often coincide with low Viking red:violet ratios and indicate less dusty surfaces. Next, the Modeled Block Abundance should also not be too high or too low. Based on the Viking Lander and Mars Pathfinder experiences, percentages of blocks should be on the order of 5-25%. Too many blocks could pose a hazard to the landing and mobility. Too few blocks could also indicate a dusty surface. Primary Landing Site: Northern Meridiani Sinus (Proposed by T. J. Parker and K., S. Edgett) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 0-3 N, 350-2 W. *Elevation (Viking): about0.5-1.5 Ian. (2) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbits 709A and 410B). Possible stereo coverage in region where two orbits overlap (probably small parallax angle, as these orbits are not listed in NASA Contractor Report 3501) (3) Albedo: about .18 -.26 (4) Block Abundance: 5-26% (5)Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: 5-9 cgs units This region consists of bright deposits similar to those described by Edgett et al, that also lie within a prominent dark albedo region. These deposits are flat-lying, to such a degree that they ramp against topography rather than draping over it. This led Edgett and Parker to suggest that they may be subaqueous sediments, possibly lacustrine or marine evaporites, laid down sometime from the late Noachian to middle Hesperian (age determination pending crater counts). A contact between this material and elevated, dissected highlands to the south was identified , and is described by Edgett et al. Our desire in proposing this landing site is to sample the edge of this deposit where it has been exposed through etching, presumably eolian deflation (the deposit, though in the highlands, is itself only lightly to moderately cratered). This should enable access to in situ stratigraphy. The actual landing site will be selected where slopes are not expected to be steep, such that the rover itself should be able to traverse them and sample layered materials on the way, either up or down the slope. Perhaps due to uncertainties at this time as to the friability or meter-scale roughness of the deposit, it might make sense to place the landing ellipse on the exhumed highland surface adjacent to the deflated margin of the deposit and plan on driving to the deposit rather than landing on it and driving downslope. This should also enable imaging the margin for evidence of layering should it prove too difficult to climb. A target ellipse on the highland surface should also allow Athena access to ancient Noachian highland materials, particularly if placed near crater ejecta or an inlier of knobby material. Secondary Landing Site: Southern Elysium Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 1.5-3.5 S, 195-198 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): -1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 15 - 25 m/pixel images (orbit 725). Possible stereo coverage between images from beginning and end of orbit that overlap (probably small parallax angle) (4) Albedo: about .27-.28 (5) Block Abundance: 4-7% (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: about 3 cgs units This region consists of eroded knobby material, probably of Noachian age, though much of the crater population has been destroyed, that is onlapped at a sharp contact by an extensive plains unit in southern Elysium Planitia that is Amazonian in age. The plains materials have been attributed to unusually low-viscosity flood lavas from fissures south of the Elysium volcanic rise, or to lacustrine materials associated with a large, Amazonian lake at the source of Marte Vallis. Parker and Schenk presented evidence in support of the latter interpretation, though they attributed the putative shore morphology to an embayment of a northern plains ocean into the southern Elysium region. Detailed examination of the margin of the deposit, showing erosion, not simply burial, of small crater rims and fluidized ejecta blankets, also points to lacustrine or marine sedimentation rather than volcanic plains burial. The plains surface exhibits a "crusty" appearance that many researchers have attributed to pressure ridges in lava flows. In a lacustrine context, they also resemble pressure ridges in desiccated evaporite deposits and salt-rimmed pools (now dry) similar in scale and morphology to spectacular, hundred meter-scale pool rims in alkaline Lake Natron, East African Rift. The eroded highland margin surface adjacent to these plains appears to be fairly smooth, even at 15 m/pixel. Isolated knob inliers are scattered from a few kilometers to several tens of "kilometers apart. Heights of the knobs have not been measured yet but, based on experience with similar features in the Pathfinder landing ellipse, are probably typically on the order of several tens of meters high and smaller, though some of the largest knobs in the region are probably up to a few hundred meters high. Two craters larger than a kilometer in diameter, with fluidized deposits, lie nearby the proposed landing site. Very high-resolution images from MOC should help to determine whether a landing site navigable by the Athena rover could be placed in this region. The space between knobs and craters is large enough to enable placement of a target landing ellipse between them but still provide access to one or more of them and to the margin of the Elysium plains material. Post-2001 Mars Surveyor Landing Site: Argyre Planitia (Proposed by T. J. Parker) Vital Statistics: (1) Latitude, Longitude: 55-56 S, 41-43 W. (2) Elevation (Viking): 1.0 km. (3) Viking Orbiter Image coverage: Excellent coverage by 40 m/pixel images (orbits 567B, 568B, and 569B). Excellent stereo coverage with large parallax angles over the entire landing site region, and much of central and southern Argyre. (4) Albedo: about .23-.24 (5) Block Abundance: No data (6) Fine-Component Thermal Inertia: No data The floors of both the Argyre and Hellas basins contain etched layered materials that are probably thick accumulations of channel or lacustrine sediments. The deposits in Hellas are much more eroded than those in Argyre, and Hellas lacks a channel outlet. Argyre is unique in that Uzboi Vallis flowed out of the basin, requiring overflow of a standing body of water within Argyre. This makes it the largest impact basin on Mars with channels both draining into it and flowing out from it. Hellas' channels may be catastrophic flood channels, whereas Argyre was fed by modest-scale valley networks, though the outlet at Uzboi Vallis was a catastrophic flood Highland craters and basins of this kind should be high-priority landing targets for missions intended to focus on the search for either prebiotic organic materials or even simple fossil microorganisms. Basins with internally-draining valley networks should be preferred over flood channels, as they could have provided the long-term influx of water favorable to the origin of life. (Catastrophic floods are not conducive to fossil preservation, due to their very short durations and high transportation energies). They also afford an opportunity to study the evolution of the planet's climate and volatiles during the period of time between the late Noachian and early Hesperian, when a drastic change from a proposed early warm, wet climate to one more closely resembling the modern environment is thought to have occurred. Large basin

Parker, T. J.↗

Surface wind characteristics of some Aleutian Islands

The wind power potential of Alaska is assessed in order to determine promising windpower sites for construction of wind machines and for shipment of wind derived energy. Analyses of near surface wind data from promising Aleutian sites accessible by ocean transport indicate probable velocity regimes and also present deficiencies in available data. It is shown that winds for some degree of power generation are available 77 percent of the time in the Aleutians with peak velocities depending on location.

Wentink, T., Jr.↗

Use of high L.E.T. radiation to improve adhesion of metals to polytetrafluoroethylene

MgK alpha X-rays (1254 eV) and 2 keV electrons irradiate the surface of polytetrafluoro ethylene (PTFE). The damage is confined to a few tenths of a micron below the surface, and the doses exceed 10 to the eight power rad. X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) of the irradiated surfaces and mass spectroscopy of the gaseous products of irradiation indicate that the damaged layer is crosslinked or branched PTFE. After either type of irradiation, the surface has enhanced affinity for metals and a lower contact angle with hexadecane. Tape pull tests show that evaporated Ni and Au films adhere better to the irradiated surface. XPS shows the Ni interacts chemically with PTFE forming NiF2 and possibly NiC. However, the gold adhesion and contact angle results indicate that the interaction is, at least in part, chemically nonspecific. Decreased contact angles on FEP Teflon crystallized against gold were attributed to either the presence of a polar oxygen layer or increased physical forces due to greater density. In the case of irradiated PTFE, no oxygen on the surface was observed. The crosslinked structure might, however, have a greater density, thus accounting for the observed increase in adhesion and wettability.

Wheeler, D. R.↗

Comparable Bulk Radar Attenuation Characteristics Across Both Martian Polar Layered Deposits

The dust-laden and predominantly water ice south polar layered deposits (SPLD) exhibit unique radar behavior at Shallow Radar (SHARAD) frequencies that is not seen in the NPLD. A vertically extensive scattering phenomenon leads to diffuse echoes that obscure radar stratigraphy within the SPLD, referred to as “fog.” Here, we use 2-D and 3-D SHARAD data to measure the areal extent in which the SPLD basal interface can be identified. We also measure reflected power of SPLD basal reflectors and compare those values to ice thickness, regional geomorphology, and the presence of radar echo scattering, to constrain any influence these factors may have on the propagation of radio waves and detectability of the base. Approximately 33% of the area in which the basal interface is observed in Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding data is also detected in SHARAD data. As expected, basal power shows a negative correlation with ice thickness, but the effects of radar fog are less clear. Areas of “column” radar fog patterns exhibit higher average basal power values than regions without radar fog, and areas with only near-surface radar fog have the lowest average basal power values. Our study results suggest that these diffuse echoes may not be associated with radio wave attenuation. Average loss tangent for the SPLD (0.0019 ± 0.0012) indicates no distinguishable difference from previously reported NPLD values in terms of bulk loss properties. We speculate that the SPLD's infrequent reflections compared to the NPLD may be due to the former's dust being less densely packed together to facilitate radar detection.

N Abu Hashmeh↗

(abstract) Steady State Temperature Profile in a Cylinder Heated by Microwaves

We have developed a new theory to calculate the steady state temperature profile in a cylindrical sample positioned along the entire axis of a cylindrical microwave cavity. Temperature profiles were computed for alumina rods of various radii excited by one of the TM0n0 modes with n = 1, 2, or 3. Sample surface and center temperatures will be presented as a function of total sample absorbed power or electric field strength at the sample surface. An approach for attaining more uniform heating within the sample by reducing the magnitude of the inverted temperature profile using a concentric outer cylindrical tube will be discussed.

microwave↗

Potential design problems for ITER fusion device

The international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER) is a worldwide project currently being built in France for the demonstration of the feasibility of thermonuclear technologies for future realization of successful commercial fusion energy. ITER is of the tokamak based design using strong magnetic fields to confine the very hot plasma needed to induce the fusion reaction. Tokamak devices are currently the front leading designs. Building a successful magnetic fusion device for energy production is of great challenge. A key obstacle to such design is the performance during abnormal events including plasma disruptions and so-called edge-localized modes (ELMs). In these events, a massive and sudden release of energy occurs quickly, due to loss of full or partial plasma confinement, leading to very high transient power loads on the reactor surface boundaries. A successful reactor design should tolerate several of these transient events without serious damages such as melting and vaporization of the structure. This paper highlights, through comprehensive state-of-the-art computer simulation of the entire ITER interior design during such transient events, e.g., ELMs occurring at normal operation and disruptions during abnormal operation, potential serious problems with current plasma facing components (PFCs) design. The HEIGHTS computer package is used in these simulations. The ITER reactor design was simulated in full and exact 3D geometry including all known relevant physical processes involved during these transient events. The current ITER divertor design may not work properly and may requires significant modifications or new innovative design to prevent serious damage and to ensure successful operation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Validity condition for the local sheath impedance boundary condition and a nonlocal generalization

ICRF sheaths can cause unwanted interactions of high-power RF waves with material surfaces in magnetic fusion devices. In previous work, a local RF sheath impedance boundary condition (BC) was derived for use in ICRF codes together with a microscale (i.e., Debye or sheath width scale) model for obtaining the sheath impedance used in that BC. This local RF sheath BC matches the normal component of current and electrostatic potential across the sheath-plasma interface. Collapsing the matching conditions at the sheath-plasma interface to a BC depends on the assumption of scale separation, which can be violated when conditions along the local radius of curvature of the surface vary sufficiently rapidly. The validity condition is explored in this contribution, with special attention to the case where the magnetic field approaches being tangent to the surface. When the local sheath BC no longer applies, a non-local sheath BC is developed under the assumption of a more relaxed scale separation assumption. It is shown that the non-local sheath BC reduces to the previous local sheath BC under appropriate conditions. Furthermore, a surface-integrated sheath admittance parameter describes the 2D physics in the new BC.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling diffusion and depletion in high-aspect-ratio atomic layer deposition processes: Process parameters and manufacturing impacts

Atomic layer deposition (ALD) is a powerful technique for modifying the surface chemistry and properties of substrates with complex and nonplanar topologies. However, achieving uniform and conformal deposition on ultrahigh-aspect-ratio substrates remains challenging, typically requiring large quantities of precursors and long exposure times. Furthermore, process optimization is often performed empirically and involves substantial trial and error. In this work, we perform a combined experimental and computational study of ALD Al 2 O 3 infiltration into silica aerogel monoliths (aspect ratio >10 5 ). A reaction-diffusion model is used to explore the effects of key processing parameters, namely, exposure time per dose, precursor source temperature, number of aerogels in the reactor, and reactor volume. The model is based on quasi-static mode ALD, where the dosed precursor is held in the chamber for a fixed period of time before purging. We analyze the trade-offs between process throughput and precursor utilization for each of these parameters. Furthermore, we investigate the co-optimization and interactions between multiple process parameters, demonstrating the potential for further improvements. Furthermore, this physics-based model can be used to identify a set of process parameters for high-aspect-ratio ALD that meet specific manufacturing objective functions, including throughput, cost, and sustainability.

Aerogel↗

Constructive molecular configurations for surface-defect passivation of perovskite photovoltaics

Surface trap-mediated nonradiative charge recombination is a major limit to achieving high-efficiency metal-halide perovskite photovoltaics. The ionic character of perovskite lattice has enabled molecular defect passivation approaches through interaction between functional groups and defects. However, a lack of in-depth understanding of how the molecular configuration influences the passivation effectiveness is a challenge to rational molecule design. In this work, the chemical environment of a functional group that is activated for defect passivation was systematically investigated with theophylline, caffeine, and theobromine. When N-H and C=O were in an optimal configuration in the molecule, hydrogen-bond formation between N-H and I (iodine) assisted the primary C=O binding with the antisite Pb (lead) defect to maximize surface-defect binding. A stabilized power conversion efficiency of 22.6% of photovoltaic device was demonstrated with theophylline treatment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Study of Ion Generation by a ps-laser for External Injection into Electron Beam Ion Source

We investigated ion generation from Al, Ti, Cu, Nb and Ta target elements by a picosecond-laser in the range of 10 11 – 10 13 W/cm 2 power densities at the target surface. A ps-laser with 1.27 mJ maximum energy within a 8 ps pulse and repetition rate up to 400 Hz has been used to generate a laser-ablated plasma. Dependencies of ion current vs time, total charge of registered ions as well as ion kinetic energy distributions are characterized using a Faraday cup. Significant difference in ion current dynamics between first, second and following shots onto the same target spot was found for all five target elements. The total charge of ions registered by the Faraday cup increase linearly with increasing laser pulse energy and are almost independent on the target element and number of shots onto the same target spot for all five target elements studied. Target craters have been examined using a commercially available microscope (Nikon Eclipse LV150) and crater cross section areas were found to be in the range of 0.0076 – 0.0172 mm 2 within the first five shots onto the same target spot for different target elements. A linear dependence of crater cross section square on laser pulse energy has been observed for the Ta target. Ion energy distributions for all target elements have a plateau or a slight peak in the energy range of 10 - 100 eV and long low-intensity energy tail up to tens of keV.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Sandia Optical Fringe Analysis Slope Tool (SOFAST) Improvement Effort (Final Report)

The Sandia Optical Fringe Analysis Slope Tool (SOFAST) is a tool that has been developed at Sandia to measure the surface slope of concentrating solar power optics. This tool has largely remained of research quality over the past few years. Since SOFAST is important to ongoing tests happening at Sandia as well as an interest to others outside Sandia, there is a desire to bring SOFAST up to professional software standards. The goal of this effort was to make progress in several broad areas including: code quality, sample data collection, and validation and testing. During the course of this effort, much progress was made in these areas. SOFAST is now a much more professional grade tool. There are, however, some areas of improvement that could not be addressed in the timeframe of this work and will be addressed in the continuation of this effort.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Superconducting Material Growth for Radio-Frequency (RF) Cavities

Superconducting radio-frequency (SRF) cavities, usually manufactured from Niobium (Nb), are vital components of modern particle accelerators because of their ability to achieve high acceleration gradients with little power dissipation. Naturally forming Nb surface oxides significantly alter cavity performance by changing surface resistance. A nondestructive characterization of oxide thickness is helpful for relating surface processing treatments to cavity performance. This work develops a protocol to measure Nb oxide thickness using Angle-Resolved X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (ARXPS) while correcting instrumental errors. Using uniform bulk standard samples (Silver, Aluminum oxide, and Germanium), we determined a baseline correction factor to account for analyzer-related intensity evolution as the measurement angle increases. The correction factor was then applied to Nb 3d ARXPS data. Applying the Strohmeier equation to the corrected data yielded a Nb2O5 thickness of 6.04 nm, closely matching the 5.5 (±.05) nm value obtained from cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy. Our approach will bring a method to incorporate inherent errors in the thickness measurements using ARXPS and can be broadly applied to improve the accuracy of thickness measurements in a wide range of heterostructures.

Lambert, Nathan [Fermilab]↗

Power Production, Inter- and Intra-Array Wake Losses from the U.S. East Coast Offshore Wind Energy Lease Areas

There is an urgent need to develop accurate predictions of power production, wake losses and array–array interactions from multi-GW offshore wind farms in order to enable developments that maximize power benefits, minimize levelized cost of energy and reduce investment uncertainty. New, climatologically representative simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are presented and analyzed to address these research needs with a specific focus on offshore wind energy lease areas along the U.S. east coast. These, uniquely detailed, simulations are designed to quantify important sources of wake-loss projection uncertainty. They sample across different wind turbine deployment scenarios and thus span the range of plausible installed capacity densities (ICDs) and also include two wind farm parameterizations (WFPs; Fitch and explicit wake parameterization (EWP)) and consider the precise WRF model release used. System-wide mean capacity factors for ICDs of 3.5 to 6.0 MWkm−2 range from 39 to 45% based on output from Fitch and 50 to 55% from EWP. Wake losses are 27–37% (Fitch) and 11–19% (EWP). The discrepancy in CF and wake losses from the two WFPs derives from two linked effects. First, EWP generates a weaker ‘deep array effect’ within the largest wind farm cluster (area of 3675 km2), though both parameterizations indicate substantial within-array wake losses. If 15 MW wind turbines are deployed at an ICD of 6 MWkm−2 the most heavily waked wind turbines generate an average of only 32–35% of the power of those that experience the freestream (undisturbed) flow. Nevertheless, there is no evidence for saturation of the resource. The wind power density (electrical power generation per unit of surface area) increases with ICD and lies between 2 and 3 Wm−2. Second, EWP also systematically generates smaller whole wind farm wakes. Sampling across all offshore wind energy lease areas and the range of ICD considered, the whole wind farm wake extent for a velocity deficit of 5% is 1.18 to 1.38 times larger in simulations with Fitch. Over three-quarters of the variability in normalized wake extents is attributable to variations in freestream wind speeds, turbulent kinetic energy and boundary layer depth. These dependencies on meteorological parameters allow for the development of computationally efficient emulators of wake extents from Fitch and EWP.

17 WIND ENERGY↗