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At least 1,045 records · Page 58
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity Analysis Comparisons on Geologic Case Studies: An International Collaboration, Volume 2

Over the past six years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. Three additional case studies are presented in this Volume 2 report, including more nonlinear behavior, outputs which exhibit bifurcation, regime changes, and nested sampling.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Uncertainty in Modeling Stress Corrosion Cracking

This report summarizes the collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to improve the state of knowledge on chloride induced stress corrosion cracking (CISCC). The foundation of this work relied on using SNL’s CISCC computer code to assess the current state of knowledge for probabilistically modeling CISCC on stainless steel canisters. This work is presented as three tasks. The first task is exploring and independently comparing crack growth rate (CGR) models typically used in CISCC modeling by the research community. The second task is implementing two of the more conservative CGR models from the first task into SNL’s full CISCC code to understand the impact of the different CGR models on a full probabilistic analysis while studying uncertainty from three key input parameters. The combined work of the first two tasks showed that properly measuring salt deposition rates is impactful to reducing uncertainty when modeling CISCC. The work in Task 2 also showed how probabilistic CGR models can be more appropriate at capturing aleatory uncertainty when modeling SCC. Lastly, appropriate and realistic input parameters relevant for CISCC modeling were documented in the last task as a product of the simulations considered in the first two tasks.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Challenges in quantifying unparameterized spatial uncertainties in deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste

Spatially heterogeneous uncertainties are prevalent in geophysical modeling applications, such as probabilistic post-closure performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic repositories for nuclear waste. Such uncertainties are often highly influential to model outputs, so it is desirable to identify the most important mechanisms by which they influence model predictions. However, these uncertainties are often unparameterized in the sense that there is no set of parameters that can be specified to yield a particular realization of the uncertainty. Additionally, the uncertainty is not intrinsically endowed with a parameterization that captures a realization’s mechanistic influence on model outputs. Therefore, in this work we present a novel methodology to develop and assess a set of proxy variables that aim to represent this influence. We show how they can be computed, downselected, and incorporated into the construction of statistical surrogate models mapping model inputs to outputs. We present our methodology in the context of a motivating application problem in deep geologic repository PA and discuss the challenges in capturing the effects of these spatial heterogeneities in uncertainty analyses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2024)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Technical Justifications for Outdoor Bulk Gaseous Hydrogen Storage Setback Distances

Setback distances define a prescribed distance between a potentially hazardous system and different types of other systems, people, buildings, or materials that may be exposed to that hazard. Riskinformed separation distances are not meant to completely eliminate risk, but rather to limit the risk to an acceptable level. A sensitivity study of risk suggested that a leak size of 3% of the pipe cross-sectional area would be a conservative but reasonable basis. Calculation of the setback distances for gaseous hydrogen was done in a deterministic manner, using a selected leak size and harm criteria for each group of exposures. Harm criteria have been updated to better reflect the exposure types under consideration, and to be consistent with setback distances for liquid hydrogen. The resulting setback distance values are primarily driven by radiative heat flux values for all exposure groups. For the typical pipe sizes, the setback distances slightly increase compared to the previous version of NFPA 2.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prioritizing Uncertainties in Hydrogen Contribution to Risk in Post-Crash Outcomes for Rail

This report presents analysis from Sandia National Laboratories predicting contributions to risk associated with the use of hydrogen technology for rail. Event sequence diagrams are used to describe possible accident scenarios and progressions. Initiating event frequencies and branch event probabilities for each scenario are quantified with uncertainty using distributions fit to Federal Railroad Administration and U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration data on applicable accidents from 2000 to 2020. Uncertainty is propagated through the event sequence diagram to estimate the frequency and conditional probability of accident end states. The analysis identifies four scenarios with significant contributions to risk from hydrogen that are predicted to occur relatively frequently, which may inform priorities for reducing uncertainty. These scenarios are 1) overpressure events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and delayed ignition, 2) jet fire events resulting from collisions with hydrogen release due to mechanical damage and immediate ignition, 3) jet fires resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and correct operation of the thermally-activated pressure relief device (TPRD) subsequent to the thermal insult, and 4) pressure burst resulting from fire or explosion initiating events involving the hydrogen tank and failure of the TPRD. Delayed and immediate hydrogen ignition probabilities are identified as being highly uncertain and potential candidates for reducing conservatism in the predicted frequencies for these two scenarios.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

ezAlign: A Tool for Converting Coarse-Grained Molecular Dynamics Structures to Atomistic Resolution for Multiscale Modeling

Soft condensed matter is challenging to study due to the vast time and length scales that are necessary to accurately represent complex systems and capture their underlying physics. Multiscale simulations are necessary to study processes that have disparate time and/or length scales, which abound throughout biology and other complex systems. Herein we present ezAlign, an open-source software for converting coarse-grained molecular dynamics structures to atomistic representation, allowing multiscale modeling of biomolecular systems. The ezAlign v1.1 software package is publicly available for download at github.com/LLNL/ezAlign. Its underlying methodology is based on a simple alignment of an atomistic template molecule, followed by position-restraint energy minimization, which forces the atomistic molecule to adopt a conformation consistent with the coarse-grained molecule. The molecules are then combined, solvated, minimized, and equilibrated with position restraints. Validation of the process was conducted on a pure POPC membrane and compared with other popular methods to construct atomistic membranes. Additional examples, including surfactant self-assembly, membrane proteins, and more complex bacterial and human plasma membrane models, are also presented. By providing these examples, parameter files, code, and an easy-to-follow recipe to add new molecules, this work will aid future multiscale modeling efforts.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probability of Hydrogen Ignition: A Landscape Review and Gaps Assessment

The primary hazard of a leak from a hydrogen system is due to the immediate or delayed ignition of the fuel leading to a jet flame or explosion. Therefore, understanding the hydrogen ignition probability is critical for analyzing the risk of hydrogen systems. This report reviews the current understanding of hydrogen ignition mechanisms and methods for modeling their probability. The stoichiometry, ignition strength, and ignition source temperature are all important characteristics that can affect both the probability of ignition and the outcome of the subsequent combustion event. A brief review of diffusion ignition demonstrates that ignition probability models must account for seemingly spontaneous ignition of hydrogen in addition to scenarios where the ignition source is readily identified. State-of-the art models for both immediate and delayed ignition probabilities are presented, including different physical aspects of the scenarios (e.g., flow rate, ignition source characteristics) that are considered in the different modeling approaches. Current models often fail to account for the unique properties of hydrogen compared to other fuels, and most lack rigorous validation with hydrogen as a fuel. A fault tree framework is proposed to systematically evaluate the probability of ignition by integrating various ignition mechanisms and their uncertainties. Furthermore, this type of framework could enable additional insights into the most important mechanisms and would enable uncertainty quantification in risk assessment modeling. Recommendations for future research include the need for experimental validation of ignition models and the development of comprehensive methodologies that incorporate the specifics of hydrogen behavior in real-world scenarios.

hydrogen↗
NASA NTRS1994

Pickup protons and pressure-balanced structures: Voyager 2 observations in merged interaction regions near 35 AU

Five pressure-balanced structures, each with a scale of the order of a few hundredths of an astonomical unit (AU), were identified in two merged interaction regions (MIRs) near 35 AU in the Voyager 2 plasma and magnetic field data. They include a tangential discountinuity, simple and complex magnetic holes, slow correlated variations among the plasma and magnetic field parameters, and complex uncorrelated variations among the parameters. The changes in the magnetic pressure in these events are balanced by changes in the pressure of interstellar pickup protons. Thus the pickup protons probably play a major role in the dynamics of the MIRs. The solar wind proton and electron pressures are relatively unimportant in the MIRs at 35 AU and beyond. The region near 35 AU is transition region: the Sun is the source of the magnetic field, but the interstellar medium in source of pickups protons. Relative to the solar wind proton guyroadius, the thicknesses of the discontinuities and simple magnetic holes observed near 35 AU are at least an order of magnitude greater than those observed at 1 AU. However, the thicknesses of the tangential discontinuity and simple magnetic holes observed near 35 AU (in units of the pickup proton Larmor radius) are comparable to those observed at 1 AU (in units of the solar wind proton gyroradius). Thus the gyroradius of interstellar pickup protons controls the thickness of current sheets near 35 AU. We determine the interstellar pickup proton pressure in the PBSs. Using a model for the pickup proton temperature, we estimate that the average interstellar pickup proton pressure, temperature, and density in the MIRs at 35 AU are (0.53 +/- 0.14) x 10(exp -12) erg/cu cm, (5.8 +/- 0.4) x 10(exp 6) K and (7 +/- 2) x 10(exp -4)/cu cm.

Burlaga, L. F.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dust Particle Aeroheating Calculations for Mars Entry Hypersonic Flows

The purpose of the current research effort is to predict particle trajectories in a hypersonic flowfield while accounting for all relevant particle-fluid and particle-particle interactions. The resulting particle solver is titled DUst Simulation & Tracking (DUST) and works in conjunction with the US3D CFD flow solver. The key elements underpinning the current work are an efficient mesh-localiztion algorithm, time-driven hard-sphere model, point-to-point MPI framework, coarse-graining using computational parcels, and high-order Adams-Bashforth time stepping. The coupled US3D-DUST framework will be applied to conduct a multi-physics examination of dust-laden flows around the the Schiarparelli capsule.

Dusty Flows↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dust Particle Aeroheating Calculations for Mars Entry Hypersonic Flows

The purpose of the current research effort is to predict particle trajectories in a hypersonic flowfield while accounting for all relevant particle-fluid and particle-particle interactions. The resulting particle solver is titled DUst Simulation & Tracking (DUST) and works in conjunction with the US3D CFD flow solver. The key elements underpinning the current work are an efficient mesh-localiztion algorithm, time-driven hard-sphere model, point-to-point MPI framework, coarse-graining using computational parcels, and high-order Adams-Bashforth time stepping. The coupled US3D-DUST framework will be applied to conduct a multi-physics examination of dust-laden flows around the the Mars 2020 capsule.

Dusty Flows↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Dust-Laden Flows in the DLR GBK Facility using the DUST-US3D Framework

The current work is aimed at performing a detailed numerical sensitivity study of dust-laden flow through the DLR GBK facility using the DUST-US3D frame-work. A three-dimensional volumetric grid of the GBK facility with emphasis on a precise reproduction of the dust particle injection process and the transit of particles through the facility has been developed for this work. The sensitivity study on this grid involves varying particle injection parameters such as the diameter distribution probability function, input velocity magnitude, and input velocity direction and accounting for particle-particle collisions. The resulting impact on particle-related statistics such as the dust mass flow rate is studied, and comparisons made to experimental data.

Dusty Flows↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Particle Drag Models Using GBK Experimental Data

Developing a simulation capability to model dust-laden flows requires the ability to accurately predict the velocity of a particle as it travels through a shock layer, nozzle plume, or the flow of an experimental facility. The primary mechanism that determines the particle velocity is the drag force acting on the particle. The drag force is typically expressed in terms of the frontal area of the particle, its velocity relative to the surrounding fluid, the density of the surrounding fluid, and a non-dimensional drag coefficient. As part of the ESM project, an integrated CFD-particle trajectory code named US3D-DUST is being developed]. This code uses a Lagrangian-based framework that computes the trajectories of individual particles in the flow. Several of the most commonly-used spherical drag models have been implemented in US3D-DUST. In this study, the US3D-DUST code will be used to simulate particle flows in the GBK facility. Differences in particle velocities predicted using the different drag models will be compared against recent GBK data

Dusty flow↗