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At least 1,045 records · Page 58

Scales of North Atlantic wind stress curl determined from the comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set

Nineteen years of wind data over the North Atlantic are used to calculate a field of wind stress curl. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is performed on this field, resulting in spatial patterns of wind stress curl and associated time series. A Monte Carlo technique is used to establish the statistical significance of each spatial pattern, and the associated time series are spectrally analyzed. The first four statistically significant EOF modes represent more than 50 percent of the curl variance, and the spatial patterns of curl associated with these modes exhibit the major elements of North Atlantic climatology. Most of the time series spectral variance is contained in annual and semiannual frequencies. The features observed include the individual annual variation of the subtropical high and the subpolar low, the annual oscillation of intensity between pressure centers, the influence of localized strong SST gradients and associated cyclogenesis regions, and the constant nature of the trades.

Ehret, Laura L.↗

Transient periodicities in X-ray-active red dwarfs - First results from Mount Cuba and interpretation with an oscillating loop model

Results from a program at the Mount Cuba Astronomical Observatory to optically monitor transient periodicities in flare stars are reported. The data are analyzed for periodicities by means of a modified autocorrelation approach. A randomization technique is used to assess the statistical significance of periods. In AD Leonis, variability with amplitude 0.4 percent and a period of 4.1 min was detected during one run on March 6, 1991: the probability that this periodicity is due to chance is 10 exp -5. Further observations obtained on AD Leo within 1-2 hr on the same night showed no significant variability (0.01). It is shown that optical periodicities of the sort detected may be interpreted as arising from oscillations in coronal loops.

Mullan, D. J.↗

Application of the multiple PRF technique to resolve Doppler centroid estimation ambiguity for spaceborne SAR

Estimation of the Doppler centroid ambiguity is a necessary element of the signal processing for SAR systems with large antenna pointing errors. Without proper resolution of the Doppler centroid estimation (DCE) ambiguity, the image quality will be degraded in the system impulse response function and the geometric fidelity. Two techniques for resolution of DCE ambiguity for the spaceborne SAR are presented; they include a brief review of the range cross-correlation technique and presentation of a new technique using multiple pulse repetition frequencies (PRFs). For SAR systems, where other performance factors control selection of the PRF's, an algorithm is devised to resolve the ambiguity that uses PRF's of arbitrary numerical values. The performance of this multiple PRF technique is analyzed based on a statistical error model. An example is presented that demonstrates for the Shuttle Imaging Radar-C (SIR-C) C-band SAR, the probability of correct ambiguity resolution is higher than 95 percent for antenna attitude errors as large as 3 deg.

Chang, C. Y.↗

Statistical fitting accuracy in photon correlation spectroscopy

Continuing our experimental investigation of the fitting accuracy associated with photon correlation spectroscopy, we collect 150 correlograms of light scattered at 90 deg from a thermostated sample of 91-nm-diameter, polystyrene latex spheres in water. The correlograms are taken with two correlators: one with linearly spaced channels and one with geometrically spaced channels. Decay rates are extracted from the single-exponential correlograms with both nonlinear least-squares fits and second-order cumulant fits. We make several statistical comparisons between the two fitting techniques and verify an earlier result that there is no sample-time dependence in the decay rate errors. We find, however, that the two fitting techniques give decay rates that differ by 1 percent.

Shaumeyer, J. N.↗

Flow over a rearward facing step

The characteristics of flow over a rearward facing step is discussed in a paper presented by NASA Lewis Research Center personnel. The objective is to obtain data which will be used for validation of Direct Numerical Simulations being developed at NASA Langley and Ames. Two phases of the work are identified as a study of large scale structures in the flow using hot-wire/cold wire techniques and the development of a statistical data base for using three-component laser velocimetry.

Kjelgaard, Scott O.↗

Detector noise statistics in the non-linear regime

The statistical behavior of an idealized linear detector in the presence of threshold and saturation levels is examined. It is assumed that the noise is governed by the statistical fluctuations in the number of photons emitted by the source during an exposure. Since physical detectors cannot have infinite dynamic range, our model illustrates that all devices have non-linear regimes, particularly at high count rates. The primary effect is a decrease in the statistical variance about the mean signal due to a portion of the expected noise distribution being removed via clipping. Higher order statistical moments are also examined, in particular, skewness and kurtosis. In principle, the expected distortion in the detector noise characteristics can be calibrated using flatfield observations with count rates matched to the observations. For this purpose, some basic statistical methods that utilize Fourier analysis techniques are described.

Shopbell, P. L.↗

Metrology: Calibration and measurement processes guidelines

The guide is intended as a resource to aid engineers and systems contracts in the design, implementation, and operation of metrology, calibration, and measurement systems, and to assist NASA personnel in the uniform evaluation of such systems supplied or operated by contractors. Methodologies and techniques acceptable in fulfilling metrology quality requirements for NASA programs are outlined. The measurement process is covered from a high level through more detailed discussions of key elements within the process, Emphasis is given to the flowdown of project requirements to measurement system requirements, then through the activities that will provide measurements with defined quality. In addition, innovations and techniques for error analysis, development of statistical measurement process control, optimization of calibration recall systems, and evaluation of measurement uncertainty are presented.

Castrup, Howard T.↗

Impact damage resistance of composite fuselage structure, part 2

The strength of laminated composite materials may be significantly reduced by foreign object impact induced damage. An understanding of the damage state is required in order to predict the behavior of structure under operational loads or to optimize the structural configuration. Types of damage typically induced in laminated materials during an impact event include transverse matrix cracking, delamination, and/or fiber breakage. The details of the damage state and its influence on structural behavior depend on the location of the impact. Damage in the skin may act as a soft inclusion or affect panel stability, while damage occurring over a stiffener may include debonding of the stiffener flange from the skin. An experiment to characterize impact damage resistance of fuselage structure as a function of structural configuration and impact threat was performed. A wide range of variables associated with aircraft fuselage structure such as material type and stiffener geometry (termed, intrinsic variables) and variables related to the operating environment such as impactor mass and diameter (termed, extrinsic variables) were studied using a statistically based design-of-experiments technique. The experimental design resulted in thirty-two different 3-stiffener panels. These configured panels were impacted in various locations with a number of impactor configurations, weights, and energies. The results obtained from an examination of impacts in the skin midbay and hail simulation impacts are documented. The current discussion is a continuation of that work with a focus on nondiscrete characterization of the midbay hail simulation impacts and discrete characterization of impact damage for impacts over the stiffener.

Dost, Ernest F.↗

Development and Application of Computational/In Vitro Toxicological Methods for Chemical Hazard Risk Reduction of New Materials for Advanced Weapon Systems

The development of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) is essential for reducing the chemical hazards of new weapon systems. The current collaboration between HEST (toxicology research and testing), MLPJ (computational chemistry) and PRS (computational chemistry, new propellant synthesis) is focusing R&D efforts on basic research goals that will rapidly transition to useful products for propellant development. Computational methods are being investigated that will assist in forecasting cellular toxicological end-points. Models developed from these chemical structure-toxicity relationships are useful for the prediction of the toxicological endpoints of new related compounds. Research is focusing on the evaluation tools to be used for the discovery of such relationships and the development of models of the mechanisms of action. Combinations of computational chemistry techniques, in vitro toxicity methods, and statistical correlations, will be employed to develop and explore potential predictive relationships; results for series of molecular systems that demonstrate the viability of this approach are reported. A number of hydrazine salts have been synthesized for evaluation. Computational chemistry methods are being used to elucidate the mechanism of action of these salts. Toxicity endpoints such as viability (LDH) and changes in enzyme activity (glutahoione peroxidase and catalase) are being experimentally measured as indicators of cellular damage. Extrapolation from computational/in vitro studies to human toxicity, is the ultimate goal. The product of this program will be a predictive tool to assist in the development of new, less toxic propellants.

Frazier, John M.↗

Using X-band Weather Radar Measurements to Monitor the Integrity of Digital Elevation Models for Synthetic Vision Systems

Synthetic Vision Systems (SVS) provide pilots with displays of stored geo-spatial data representing terrain, obstacles, and cultural features. As comprehensive validation is impractical, these databases typically have no quantifiable level of integrity. Further, updates to the databases may not be provided as changes occur. These issues limit the certification level and constrain the operational context of SVS for civil aviation. Previous work demonstrated the feasibility of using a realtime monitor to bound the integrity of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) by using radar altimeter measurements during flight. This paper describes an extension of this concept to include X-band Weather Radar (WxR) measurements. This enables the monitor to detect additional classes of DEM errors and to reduce the exposure time associated with integrity threats. Feature extraction techniques are used along with a statistical assessment of similarity measures between the sensed and stored features that are detected. Recent flight-testing in the area around the Juneau, Alaska Airport (JNU) has resulted in a comprehensive set of sensor data that is being used to assess the feasibility of the proposed monitor technology. Initial results of this assessment are presented.

Young, Steve↗

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Iterative Focusing - Part 1

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights from the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Finding Bounded Rational Equilibria: Alternative Lagrangians and Uncountable Move Spaces - Part 2

A long-running difficulty with conventional game theory has been how to modify it to accommodate the bounded rationality characterizing all real-world players. A recurring issue in statistical physics is how best to approximate joint probability distributions with decoupled (and therefore far more tractable) distributions. It has recently been shown that the same information theoretic mathematical structure, known as Probability Collectives (PC) underlies both issues. This relationship between statistical physics and game theory allows techniques and insights &om the one field to be applied to the other. In particular, PC provides a formal model-independent definition of the degree of rationality of a player and of bounded rationality equilibria. This pair of papers extends previous work on PC by introducing new computational approaches to effectively find bounded rationality equilibria of common-interest (team) games.

Wolpert, David H.↗

Identifying Trends in Deep Space Network Monitor Data

A computer program has been developed that analyzes Deep Space Network monitor data, looking for changes of trends in critical parameters. This program represents a significant improvement over the previous practice of manually plotting data and visually inspecting the resulting graphs to identify trends. This program uses proven numerical techniques to identify trends. When a statistically significant trend is detected, then it is characterized by means of a symbol that can be used by pre-existing model-based reasoning software. The program can perform any of the following functions: Given an expectation that data in a given list should exhibit an upward, downward, constant, or unknown trend, it can determine whether the data do or do not follow such a trend. Given a list of data, it can identify which of the aforementioned trends the data follow. Given two lists of data, it can determine whether or not both follow the same trend. This program can be executed on a variety of computers. It can be distributed in either source code or binary code form. It must be run in conjunction with any one of a number of Lisp compilers that are available commercially or as shareware.

James, Mark↗

GRB Progenitor Classification from Gamma-Ray Burst Prompt and Afterglow Observations

Using an established classification technique, we leverage standard observations and analyses to predict the progenitors of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). This technique, utilizing support vector machine (SVM) statistics, provides a more nuanced prediction than the previous two-component Gaussian mixture in duration of the prompt gamma-ray emission. Based on further covariance testing from Fermi-GBM, Swift-BAT, and Swift-XRT data, we find that our classification based only on prompt emission properties gives perspective on the recent evidence that mergers and collapsars exist in both “long” and “short” GRB populations.

P Nuessle↗

A Study of Physics-Informed Deep Learning for System Fluid Dynamics Closures

The sub-grid-scale (SGS) physics models, or so-called closure relations (CR), are essential in thermal-fluid modeling and simulation codes, ranging from large-eddy simulation to system-level thermo-fluid dynamic problems. While details vary, all thermo-fluid codes solve coupled mass-momentum-energy conservation partial differential equations (PDE). Traditionally, the analytical form of closure models has to be known, and then we calibrate the model using data from a set of applicable experiments. Characteristically, it takes long effort to gain insights and mechanistic understanding needed for developing closure models. Such a model is a compact form of data. The long time required for new model development limits the pace of model application while dealing with new geometries, new coolants or system conditions, particularly in newly designed systems. Alternative to mechanistic and semi-analytical models, it is possible to discover the pattern of closure relations by applying the modern machine learning methods to the body of relevant experimental data. Deep learning (DL) is a relatively new branch in the machine learning family, and a major breakthrough has been achieved since Hinton introduces a fast algorithm to efficiently train a feed-forward neural network (NN) with multilayer perceptrons. Generally, any NN with more than two layers is considered as deep learning, and it contains a large number of hyper-parameters to achieve pattern recognition or regression for complex datasets. Hornik shows that multilayer NN is compatible with universal approximation theorem. There is no constraint for a multilayer NN to capture the properties of any measurable information. This capability makes DL attractive for closure models in a system thermal-hydraulic code. As system geometry and/or operating conditions change, new physical experiments (increasingly sophisticated) are conducted to support evaluation and revision of closure models. Such a so-called data-driven modeling relaxes the structural form of system codes to directly assimilate data instead of hard-wiring the model to pre-calibrated correlations. The objective of this research is to enable cost-effective development of a DL-based closure that reflects the data. The previous work on applying machine learning techniques to fluid dynamics focused on statistical learning with basic NN from direct numerical simulations (DNS) dataset. In the present work, we show that DL-based closure models can cause the fluid calculation to diverge if multilayer NN is used. To address the issue, we investigate conditions by which the DL-based closure models work compatibly, stably, and effectively with PDE-constrained forward prediction problems. Optimally meeting the compatibility conditions constitutes a physics-informed deep learning (PIDL) strategy. We refer to this process as PDE-constrained machine learning or PDE-ML. To develop the technical basis for PDE-ML using DL-based fluid dynamics closure, numerical experiments are performed for manufactured problems of increasing complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Statistical analysis of flight times for space shuttle ferry flights

Markov chain and Monte Carlo analysis techniques are applied to the simulated Space Shuttle Orbiter Ferry flights to obtain statistical distributions of flight time duration between Edwards Air Force Base and Kennedy Space Center. The two methods are compared, and are found to be in excellent agreement. The flights are subjected to certain operational and meteorological requirements, or constraints, which cause eastbound and westbound trips to yield different results. Persistence of events theory is applied to the occurrence of inclement conditions to find their effect upon the statistical flight time distribution. In a sensitivity test, some of the constraints are varied to observe the corresponding changes in the results.

Graves, M. E.↗

A study of gravity-wave spectra in the troposphere and stratosphere at 5-min to 5-day periods with the Poker Flat MST radar

An analysis of frequency spectra at periods of about 5 days to 5 min from two 20-day sets of velocity measurements in the stratosphere and troposphere region obtained with the Poker Flat mesosphere-stratosphere-troposphere (MST) radar during January and June, 1984 is presented. A technique based on median filtering and averaged order statistics for automatic editing, smoothing and spectral analysis of velocity time series contaminated with spurious data points or outliers is outlined. The validity of this technique and its effects on the inferred spectral index was tested through simulation. Spectra obtained with this technique are discussed. The measured spectral indices show variability with season and height, especially across the tropopause. The discussion briefly outlines the need for obtaining better climatologies of velocity spectra and for the refinements of the existing theories to explain their behavior.

Bemra, R. S.↗

The generation of surface targets with specified surface statistics

Results are presented from efforts to generate physical surfaces from known or desired surface statistical properties, proceeding from previous work on the generation of random surfaces for use in computer simulations. The known statistical surface is extended using a bicubic spline technique; these results are interfaced with a numerically controlled machine in order to generate the physical surface. A portion of a complete surface with Gaussian statistics was constructed and tested to measure conformity to the desired statistics.

Rochier, J. D.↗