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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Extraction and Parametrization of Isobaric Trinucleon Elastic Cross Sections and Form Factors

By mining data from Jefferson Lab Hall A experiment E08-014 a new 3 He elastic cross section was extracted from a large quasielastic background. This measurement was taken with an initial beam energy of 3.356 GeV and an angle of 20.51°. The cross section was found to be 1.345 × 10 -6 µb/sr ± 0.086 × 10 -6 µb/sr at Q 2 = 34.19 fm -2 . This new data point falls approximately halfway between the first and second diffractive minima of the 3 He form factors. When combined with recent high Q 2 3 He elastic cross section measurements from Jefferson Lab and MIT-Bates this new data point improves our knowledge of the cross section and form factors at large momentum transfers. The new high Q 2 data motivate a reanalysis of the 3 He elastic cross section world data and provide an improved understanding of the magnetic form factor in particular. For this analysis the elastic cross section world data for 3 He, and its mirror nuclei 3 H, were collected. The world data spans a time frame from 1965 to 2016. The dataset contains electron energy ranges from tens of MeV to above 12 GeV for measurements performed at many different facilities. The world data were then fit using a sum of Gaussians parametrization which allowed for the extraction of both targets’ magnetic and electric form factors which were then used to calculate charge densities and radii. The new charge and magnetic form factors for 3 H and the charge form factor for 3 He are in good agreement with the 1994 fits from Amroun et al . However, the addition of the new high Q 2 data has caused the 3 He magnetic form factor’s first diffractive minimum to shift up in Q 2 by 1-3 fm -2 while also decreasing the magnitude of the magnetic form factor above Q2 ≈ 20 fm -2 . The first diffractive minima for 3H are located at Q2 ≈ 13 fm -2 and Q 2 ≈ 23-24 fm -2 for the charge and magnetic form factors respectively. The first diffractive minima for 3 He are located at Q 2 ≈ 11 fm -2 and Q 2 ≈ 17-20 fm -2 for the charge and magnetic form factors respectively. The charge radius for 3 He was found to be 1.90 fm ± 0.00144 fm in reasonable agreement with past measurements, and the charge radius for 3 H was found to be 2.02 fm ± 0.0133 fm which is much larger than past measurements. However, each of these charge radii has an additional uncertainty that must be applied to them due to allowing all parameters to float freely during the sum of Gaussians fitting procedure. This additional uncertainty should be small for 3 He, but it is likely quite significant for 3 H and would help bring this charge radius closer to agreement with past measurements that made different fitting choices. Unfortunately, this analysis was unable to quantify this additional uncertainty. The new form factor fits were compared to modern theoretical predictions from the 2016 paper of Marcucci et al . The ‘conventional’ theoretical approach applied in this paper modelled two and three-body nucleon interactions with relativistic corrections and was reasonably successful at predicting the charge form factors of 3 H and 3 He. χEFT predictions were also often successful. However, while the ‘conventional’ approach still performed best, theory failed to accurately predict the magnetic form factors of either 3 H or 3 He. The first diffractive minimum of the new 3 He magnetic form factor fits actually moved further away from theory. This disagreement between theory and experiment provides motivation for new asymmetry measurements using polarized 3 He and a polarized electron beam. When the beam is scanned in Q 2 on the target the sign of the asymmetry will flip at the form factor minima pinning down their true location.

Barcus, Scott↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comoparison of Slit Trench and Engineered Trench 3D Vadose Zone Conceptual Models

In the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Performance Assessment (PA), radionuclide groundwater transport from slit (ST) and engineered trenches (ET) will be simulated using 3-dimensional PORFLOW models representing the vadose zone. In total, the conceptual framework will aim to model 29 total trenches with a degree of conservatism that provides a high level of confidence in meeting performance objectives. The implementation of generic conceptual models allows for a reasonable number of simulation scenarios, thereby reducing the chances of errors and enabling a better one-to-one comparison between the results, while still capturing the most important features of each trench. The current investigation seeks to understand if a generic trench model based on the general ET footprint can justifiably be used for representing both STs and ETs while maintaining a reasonable degree of conservatism. In this process, the groundwater transport of several key radionuclides was simulated for both ET and ST geometries and the flux-to-the-water-table profiles were compared. For all radionuclides simulated, the ET geometry is shown to be conservative (i.e., produces the highest peak flux to the water table).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Involute Working Group – Validation of CFD Turbulence Models for Steady-State Safety Analysis

There are three research reactors in the world having fuel plates curved as circle-involute (a spiral generated around a circle): The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) located in Tennessee, U.S.A. [ORNL, 2018]; The Laue-Langevin Institute (ILL) High Flux Reactor (RHF) located in Grenoble, France [ILL, 2018]; and, The Technical University of Munich (TUM) Research Neutron Source Heinz Maier-Leibnitz (FRM II) located in Garching, Germany [TUM, 2018]. All three reactors are currently using Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU, 235U/U ≥ 20 wt. %) as fuel and all three are actively engaged in activities to convert to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU, 235U/U < 20 wt. %) fuel. More information on these reactors can be found in Section two. For various reasons, these reactors have expressed interest in using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools to perform their Steady-State Thermal-Hydraulic (SSTH) safety calculations. Using CFD tools for SSTH analysis represents generally a significant departure from traditional methods and requires thorough verification and validation (V&V) to be accepted by regulators. This is why Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the involute reactors formed an informal group to help each other in this endeavor. This so-called Involute Working Group (IWG) aims at supporting the qualification of CFD tools for SSTH safety calculations. Activities include benchmarking, code-to-code comparison, Verification and Validation (V&V) as well as technical support. More information on the IWG and the reasons why involute-plate reactors are interested in CFD can be found in Section three. The present study aims at testing three turbulence models commonly implemented in commercial software (namely K-Epsilon, K-Omega and Reynolds-Stress) and assessing their relevance for involute-plate reactor application. An experiment performed by Gambill and Bundy in 1961 was performed to measure heat transfer coefficients in conditions prototypic of the HFIR reactor [Gambill, 1961]. More details on this experiment are provided in Section four. Based on the information available, CFD models of this experiment have been created and the experimental results have been compared to the ones obtained with these CFD models. CFD models and the results of this comparison are provided in Section five.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Glycolate Analysis in Tank 22: Developing and Testing Analytical Methods for the Savannah River Site Liquid Waste System

Researchers developed and tested a range of techniques to support a low mg/L Limit of Quantitation (LOQ) of glycolate in radioactive Tank 22 waste solution by Ion Chromatography (IC) and by proton NMR. For the IC method, Dionex OnGuard II cartridges were tested as a means of removing alkali earth and transition metals that can interfere during ion chromatography applications especially when analyzing for low-concentration, chelating analytes. Additionally, concentrations of nitrate in the raw Tank 22 sample (5,000 to 10,000 mg/L) were managed by using reasonable levels of sample dilution. The resulting IC performance quality was enhanced by improving the baseline, increasing sensitivity [Limit of Quantitation (LOQ) of 12 mg/L and Limit of Detection (LOD) of 4.0 mg/L], and resolving analytes into well-defined Gaussian peaks when using the Dionex OnGuard II H⁺ cartridges to remove matrix interferences. High concentrations of nitrate limited the performance of the IC method. To achieve an acceptable baseline, samples with high nitrate content require more dilution, resulting in higher detection limits. Tests on samples with higher concentrations of nitrate (Tank 30 and 32 supernate with approximately 150000 mg/L nitrate) suggested that IC detection limits for glycolate in these samples would be > 500 mg/L. Thus, an LOQ of 12 mg/L is not feasible by this IC method on evaporator feed samples. An alternative method of glycolate analysis, using proton nuclear magnetic resonance (H NMR), was developed by the research team. In initial tests, the H NMR technique provided reasonable quantitation of glycolate in Tank 22 conditions by direct observation of the liquid. The H NMR method may provide improved detection limits for solutions with higher nitrate concentrations. We recommend further development of this analysis for high nitrate LWS samples such as evaporator feed and evaporator drop tank content. A method for pretreatment of samples using crystalline silicotitanate (CST) was developed and tested. The objective of the pretreatment was to facilitate analysis of samples with higher levels of radioactivity. The pretreatment did not influence the glycolate concentration in solution, and the pretreatment is projected to reduce Cs 137 activity in a sample by a factor of 16,200. The double strike CST pretreatment was demonstrated and would allow milliliters of higher activity samples to be transferred from the Shielded Cells and handled in a containment unit for glycolate analysis. The various studies validated IC and H NMR methods for glycolate analysis, defined the range of applicability, and demonstrated key supporting analytical protocols. Based on the results, high quality glycolate analysis of Tank 22 is feasible down to approximately 12 mg/L, with the potential for broader applicability of the methods to other conditions in the Savannah River Site Liquid Waste System (LWS).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Brief Introduction to Gamma and Neutron Radiation [Slides]

Objectives: Describe gamma rays in plain English; Give 3 reasons we measure gamma rays; Describe shielding effect vs gamma energy; List 4 components of the natural background; Detail the main reason we care about neutrons; and List three good neutron moderators.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of the 2018 Version of the Integrated Surveillance Program Database Pressure Equation

The Integrated Surveillance Program (ISP) Database Pressure Equation was developed to determine with reasonable certainty the total maximum pressure of hydrogen and other gases in packaged 3013 containers stored at Savannah River Site (SRS) in support of the destructive evaluation (DE) process. The pressure equation in the Department of Energy (DOE) 3013 Standard, “Standard for Stabilization, Packaging and Storage of Plutonium- Bearing Materials” (DOE-STD-3013-2004) used a bounding assumption that all the water is decomposed to form hydrogen. However, the results of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) shelf-life experiments showed that hydrogen is consumed, and that the maximum pressures would not approach the design pressure of the 3013 container. Therefore, the ISP Database Pressure Equation was revised in 2008 to include terms for the generation of helium and hydrogen as a function of time, as well as the consumption of water and destruction of hydrogen based on shelf-life results. The 2008 ISP Database Pressure Equation provided a more reasonable estimate of the total maximum pressure in packaged 3013 containers than the pressure equation in versions of the 3013 Standard issued prior to 2018.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Materials Characteristics of Palladium Lanthanide Cermet Wires as a Mimic of Californium Wire Production

Californium-252 (Cf-252) has been synthesized on a large scale (mg) since the 1970s for use as a portable neutron source. With a half-life of 2.645 years and a spontaneous fission fraction of 3.09%, Cf-252 emits 2.31 × 10 12 neutrons/gram second. Today most of the Cf-252 produced in the world is made at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) using the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and the Radiochemical Engineering Development Center (REDC). Because of its highly radioactive nature, all manipulations of Cf-252 need to be performed in hot cell facilities by highly trained personnel. The Cf-252 produced at ORNL is done at the REDC, which is conveniently located next to the HFIR. Cf-252 is sold as bulk wire, which has been described as palladium (Pd) metal incasing californium oxide (Cf 2 O 3 ). The process was developed by Mosley et al. at Savannah River Laboratory (SRL) where it was modeled after the thorium work done by Fuschillo et al. This process has been used since the 1970s to synthesize this unique wire, but its fundamental chemistry and materials characteristics were never openly reported. Here we aim to better understand the chemistry and the materials characteristics of Cf-252 wire production for process improvements and to better our fundamental understanding of the mid-late actinides. Though there are many challenges in working with radioactive elements such as Cf, the isotope Cf-252 is even more complicated due to its neutron emission. One challenge with neutron emission is the ability of neutrons to penetrate much deeper through materials, causing radiation damage. This makes using instrumentation to characterize the chemistry and materials properties of this process difficult. For this reason, this study will first focus on terbium (Tb) as a surrogate for Cf. Currently Tb is used as a carrier or filler in Cf production when small amounts of Cf are being processed. This, along with their similar size and charge, makes Tb a reasonable surrogate for this study.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

RAMSeS: Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems

Over the past few decades, software has become ubiquitous as it has been integrated into nearly every aspect of society, including household appliances, consumer electronics, industrial control systems, public utilities, government operations, and military systems. Consequently, many critical national security questions can no longer be answered convincingly without understanding software, including its purpose, its capabilities, its flaws, its communication, or how it processes and stores data. As software continues to become larger, more complex, and more widespread, our ability to answer important mission questions and reason about software in a timely way is falling behind. Today, to achieve such understanding of third-party software, we rely predominantly on the ability of reverse engineering experts to manually answer each particular mission question for every software system of interest. This approach often requires heroic human effort that nevertheless fails to meet current mission needs and will never scale to meet future needs. The result is an emerging crisis: a massive and expanding gap between the national security need to answer mission questions about software and our ability to do so. Sandia National Laboratories has established the Rapid Analysis of Mission Software Systems (RAMSeS) effort, a collaborative long-term effort aimed at dramatically improving our nation’s ability to answer mission questions about third-party software by growing an ecosystem of tools that augment the human reverse engineer through automation, interoperability, and reuse. Focusing on static analysis of binary programs, we are attempting to identify reusable software analysis components that advance our ability to reason about software, to automate useful aspects of the software analysis process, and to integrate new methodologies and capabilities into a working ecosystem of tools and experts. We aim to integrate existing tools where possible, adapt tools when modest modifications will enable them to interoperate, and implement missing capability when necessary. Although we do hope to automate a growing set of analysis tasks, we will approach this goal incrementally by assisting the human in an ever-widening range of tasks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of the AltRAM Physics Models for use with Compressed Natural Gas

The Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (A1tRAM) toolkit combines Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for methane which is being used as a surrogate for natural gas. For the unignited dispersion model, seven previously published experiments from credible sources were used to validate. The validation looked at gas concentrations with respect to the distance from the release point. Four of these were underexpanded jets (i.e. release velocity equal to or greater than local speed of sound) and the other three subsonic releases. The methane plume model in AltRAM matched both varieties well, with higher accuracy for the underexpanded releases. For the jet flame model, we compared the heat flux and thermal radiation data reported from five separate turbulent jet flame experiments to the quantities calculated by A1tRAM. Four of the five datasets were for underexpanded diffusion jets flames. While the results still match well enough to give a good estimate of what is occurring, the error is higher than what was seen with the plume model. For the underexpanded flames A1tRAM provided reasonable approximations, which would lead to conservative risk assessments. Some modeling errors can be attributed to environmental effects (i.e. wind) since most large scale flame experiments are conducted outdoors. A1tRAM has been shown to be a reasonably accurate tool for calculating the concentration or flame properties of natural gas releases. Improvements could still be made for the plume of subsonic releases and radiative heat fluxes to reduce the conservative nature of these predictions. These models can provide valuable information for the risk assessment of natural gas infrastructure.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Eject, crash, or survive: Using machine learning to predict orbital instability of exoplanetary systems

Astronomers throughout history, including titans like Kepler and Newton, have tackled planetary dynamics and orbital instability. Despite strides taken in research, understanding the evolution of planetary orbits remains an intricate, computationally expensive, and analytically unsolved problem. I apply machine learning classification methods to numerical simulations of planetary systems in order to predict the long-term fate of the planet - whether the planet remains in a stable orbit or not. My method uses the first 41.1 years (≤ 500 orbits) of data from a planet’s simulation to calculate 17 dynamically-motivated metrics; I trained my classifier on these features to predict a planet’s stability after 107 years. At 84.33%, my classifier was comparable in accuracy to pre-existing literature, despite using significantly less computational power than most other methods. In my research, I found that the standard deviation of eccentricity, mass ratios for neighboring planets, and semi-major axis ratio with the outer planet neighbor to be the most predictive features of instability. I propose reasons for the importance of these features, their role in planetary dynamics, as well as possible explanations for why some planets were misclassified. By understanding the important metrics of instability and reasons for misclassification, we can begin to understand more about system architectures, orbital motion and dynamics, and the formation and evolution of the exoplanetary systems. This is applicable in our own Solar System, and with exoplanet discovery missions such as TESS, this research becomes especially relevant in understanding the new exoplanetary systems we discover.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Production-Ready CsPbBr3 Module Fabrication

The purpose of this SBIR was to work on evaluation, development, and testing of CsPbBr3 semiconductors for use in commercial gamma-ray detection. The overarching goal was to demonstrate the capability to fabricate functional detectors through resources available to H3D, Inc in pursuit of an alternative to CdZnTe for room-temperature semiconductor detectors. Throughout the project, CdZnTe crystals from Redlen were used as a control group to demonstrate whether the fabrication processes could produce reasonable results. The CdZnTe crystals were diced into roughly 6 mm x 6 mm x 4.5 mm pieces and electrodes were evaporated onto planar faces. In one case, pixels were patterned through a laser ablation method; in the other, a rudimentary pixel shadow-mask was fabricated, and the pixels were generated in the evaporation process. A 16 mm x 16 mm x 14 mm CsPbBr3 crystal was diced into four smaller crystals. These CsPbBr3 had electrodes applied in a similar way to the CdZnTe samples with a rudimentary mask used for pixels on the cathode. Tested CdZnTe pieces were found to generally function with reasonable, low-energy performance. CsPbBr3 crystals were found to be non-functional under forward bias with a large dark-current. A separate attempt, using reverse bias in a non-H3D, Inc test system, observed a dark current similar to previous observations, and some active pixels but no waveforms were observed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

SAGE Intrusion Detection System: Sensitivity Analysis Guided Explainability for Machine Learning.

This report details the results of a three-fold investigation of sensitivity analysis (SA) for machine learning (ML) explainability (MLE): (1) the mathematical assessment of the fidelity of an explanation with respect to a learned ML model, (2) quantifying the trustworthiness of a prediction, and (3) the impact of MLE on the efficiency of end-users through multiple users studies. We focused on the cybersecurity domain as the data is inherently non-intuitive. As ML is being using in an increasing number of domains, including domains where being wrong can elicit high consequences, MLE has been proposed as a means of generating trust in a learned ML models by end users. However, little analysis has been performed to determine if the explanations accurately represent the target model and they themselves should be trusted beyond subjective inspection. Current state-of-the-art MLE techniques only provide a list of important features based on heuristic measures and/or make certain assumptions about the data and the model which are not representative of the real-world data and models. Further, most are designed without considering the usefulness by an end-user in a broader context. To address these issues, we present a notion of explanation fidelity based on Shapley values from cooperative game theory. We find that all of the investigated MLE explainability methods produce explanations that are incongruent with the ML model that is being explained. This is because they make critical assumptions about feature independence and linear feature interactions for computational reasons. We also find that in deployed, explanations are rarely used due to a variety of reason including that there are several other tools which are trusted more than the explanations and there is little incentive to use the explanations. In the cases when the explanations are used, we found that there is the danger that explanations persuade the end users to wrongly accept false positives and false negatives. However, ML model developers and maintainers find the explanations more useful to help ensure that the ML model does not have obvious biases. In light of these findings, we suggest a number of future directions including developing MLE methods that directly model non-linear model interactions and including design principles that take into account the usefulness of explanations to the end user. We also augment explanations with a set of trustworthiness measures that measure geometric aspects of the data to determine if the model output should be trusted.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of the SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD Solver

A new Boltzmann-CSD solver has been developed within the SCEPTRE radiation-transport code, based on the 1st-order form of the transport equation, using discontinuous finite elements in space and energy and discrete ordinates in angle. The Boltzmann-CSD solver has been validated against experimental data for electron energy deposition distributions and for electron emission spectra. Comparison of the calculated results with experimental data shows excellent agreement for many of the test configurations and reasonable agreement for other test configurations. The tests have also been modeled with the ITS Monte Carlo code, which also shows excellent to reasonable agreement with the SCEPTRE results and experimental data. The SCEPTRE Boltzmann-CSD solver relies on electron cross sections generated by the legacy CEPXS code, which currently is limited to electron-only Boltzmann-CSD cross sections. Performing full electron-photon radiation transport with the Boltzmann-CSD solver will require further development in the cross section generating code. For the energy- deposition calculations, neglecting photon transport results in at most about 5% overprediction of the energy deposition for high-energy electrons on high-Z targets, and relatively insignificant difference for the other test configurations.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Role of Nuclear-Conventional Intermingling on State Decision-making and the Risk of Inadvertent Escalation

The questions answered by this report are: What are the implications of nuclear and conventional intermingling on crisis stability and the potential risk of miscalculation?, and Specifically, how might entanglement influence US and competitor decision making during crisis and conflict? In practice, there are three main forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling. First, intermingling between nuclear and non-nuclear weapon systems can occur via the fielding of dual capable delivery systems like missiles or aircraft. Second, intermingling can happen due to the co-location of nuclear and non-nuclear forces and their support structures—for example, the co-location of strategic bombers and general-purpose aircraft, or the co-location of strategic submarines and general-purpose vessels. Third, intermingling can occur via convolving nuclear and conventional military command and control systems, to include ballistic missile early warning and potentially space surveillance systems as well. All three forms of nuclear-conventional intermingling have significantly increased since the end of the Cold War, driven by both technological and doctrinal changes. However, there are important differences in the rationale behind, and also the risks associated with these three different forms of intermingling. The mere existence of dual capable systems is not new— deploying such systems can increase the effectiveness of forces, and it can also provide more flexibility. The major powers have both employed and threatened with dual capable systems for decades, and they have done so without nuclear escalation. Similarly, the major powers co-located nuclear and conventional systems in the Cold War, and they did so for variety of reasons that had nothing to do with complicating the adversary’s risk calculus. The Soviet Union, for example, decided to co-locate its nuclear and conventional forces for economic and administrative reasons. Although today it might be recognized as a useful deterrent tool, it was not their primary intention. Major powers want to convince rivals that the co-location of forces creates a high bar for targeting and raises the risk of nuclear escalation, but they also want to have the flexibility of this not being true in an actual crisis or conflict.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Validation for the FY2021 SRS Composite Analysis Monitoring Plan

Using a projected end-state date of 2065 (SRNS 2015b), the Savannah River Site (SRS) Composite Analysis (CA) modeling for each facility and waste site began on the inventory year assigned to it so that source depletion and radionuclide transport out of the system could be appropriately captured. Some SRS waste sites that have already achieved their end states (i.e., end-state inventories and end-state configuration) are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose through source release, groundwater transport, discharge to on-site surface streams, and stream transport to the CA point of assessments (POAs). The inventory year assigned to these waste sites is 2002 or before. This means that SRS CA results from 2002 and beyond are a reasonable representation for these waste sites that have already achieved their end states and are currently contributing to the potential off-site public dose. The SRS Annual Environmental Report (AER) monitoring can differentiate and separate liquid pathway data allowing the data representing only waste sites at their end state to be produced. Because the SRS CA has projected reasonable end-state impacts from 2002 and beyond, and the AER monitoring can differentiate and separate operating and end-state contributions to annual liquid pathway release, an opportunity exists to use the AER monitoring data to validate the SRS CA model.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Release of Evaluated 235 U(n,f) Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities Including the CGMF Model

This report documents an evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\overline{v}_p$, of 235 U from 200 keV to 15 MeV that is a potential release candidate for the upcoming U.S. nuclear data library, ENDF/B-VIII.1. This evaluation had to be re-done from "scratch", as the input to the $\overline{v}_p$ evaluation of the previous library, ENDF/B-VIII.0, was lost. That means that all available experimental data were re-analyzed and uncertainties were re-estimated. Another major difference to ENDF/B-VIII.0 is that this evaluation includes model information from the Hauser-Feshbach fission fragment decay code CGMF, while ENDF/B-VIII.0 is based purely on experimental data. CGMF links several fission quantities with each other; $\overline{v}_p$ is predicted by assumptions made on, e.g., pre-neutron emission yields as a function of mass, the total kinetic energy, or spin and parity of fission fragments. This allows to perform two types of validation for the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$: On the one hand, one can employ evaluated CGMF parameters obtained from fitting to experimental 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ to predict yields as a function of mass, the average total kinetic energy, or the mean energy of the prompt fission neutron spectrum. These model-predicted values can then be compared to experimental and evaluated data. The model-predicted fission-observable values using evaluated parameters obtained here are reasonably close to experimental data indicating the evaluated 235 U(n,f) $\overline{v}_p$ are physical. On the other hand, one can validate 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ with respect to integral responses such as fast ICSBEP critical assemblies or LLNL pulsed spheres. LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra are minimally impacted by the new 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ as these experimental data are shape data and the $\overline{v}_p$ would mostly lead to a change in normalization of the data as the spheres are relatively thin (0.7 and 1.5 mean-free path) and, thus, mostly depend on 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 12-15 MeV. The change in the predicted effective neutron multiplication factor, k eff , of selected ICSBEP critical assemblies, however, is large compared to values using ENDF/B-VIII.0 and experimental k eff : The average bias is 108 pcm across all studied k eff values versus 12 pcm for ENDF/B-VIII.0. A reasonable performance in simulating keff (mean bias of 14 pcm) can be retained by tweaking 235 U $\overline{v}_p$ from 3-5 MeV, and combining it with a recent 235 U PFNS evaluation that is also a ENDF/B-VIII.1 release candidate.

235U↗
DOE OSTI2022

Small field campaign: aerosol – ice formation closure pilot study. Final Report

Prediction of atmospheric ice formation from aerosol particles by heterogeneous nucleation represents one of the grand challenges in atmospheric science. Our insufficient predictive understanding of primary ice formation is the reason that climate models typically do not include heterogeneous ice nucleation with subsequent effects on climate uncertainty. Mixed-phase clouds, where supercooled water droplets and ice crystals coexist play globally an important role regulating climate. This is especially the case for the Arctic region that experiences the greatest warming due to climate change compared to other regions in the world. Immersion freezing initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in supercooled water droplets is recognized as the dominant primary ice formation pathway in mixed-phase cloud regimes. For this reason, it is crucial to evaluate our capability to predict immersion freezing for a given ambient aerosol population. The goal of this project is conducting a field-based pilot study at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility at Southern Great Plains (SGP) to evaluate our capability to predict the number concentration of aerosol particles that serve as INPs in the immersion freezing mode. Successful prediction of INP number concentrations is also termed “closure”. This field-observational approach represents a first-of-its kind attempt of an aerosol–ice formation closure study (AEROICESTUDY). Very few closure studies related to INPs have been conducted, and to our knowledge, none using robust size-resolved ambient aerosol composition measurements as a starting point. Achievement of aerosol–ice formation closure relies on our ability to characterize the ambient aerosol population with respect to particles size and composition and to determine INP number concentrations for specified freezing temperatures. This requires numerous online and offline instrumentation resulting in this pilot field campaign being a multi-institutional and community-collaborative effort. We chose the ARM SGP megasite for this first aerosol-ice formation closure pilot study due to its significant measurement capabilities available to obtain detailed physical characterization of the local aerosol population including size distribution, mass loading, and chemical composition of non-refractory aerosol particles. The overall objective of this project is to identify ice nucleation parameterizations that produce the most robust predictions of INP numbers and thus are best suited to be included in cloud and climate models. This objective includes the following goals for this field and laboratory-based project: i) What are the crucial aerosol physicochemical property measurements needed to accurately guide ice nucleation representations in models and long-term INP measurements? ii) What level of parameter details needs to be known to achieve aerosol–ice formation closure? iii) What are the leading causes for climate model bias in INP predictions? We found that the advances in our understanding of immersion freezing garnered over the last 20 years allowed us to yield partial and full closures of atmospheric immersion freezing from ambient aerosol particles. When the aerosol population is physicochemically complex and parameterizations for representative INP types are not yet available, we still struggle to accurately predict INP number concentrations. This project clearly demonstrates that with more laboratory and field measurements that are accompanied by particle composition analysis, the necessary datasets to achieve aerosol–ice formation closure for various locations will emerge, thus providing a robust foundation for guiding the representation of INPs in cloud and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗