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DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey year 6 results: Magnification modeling and its impact on galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing cosmology

Gravitational lensing magnification alters the observed spatial distribution of galaxies and must be accounted for to prevent biases in cosmological probes of the large-scale structure. We investigate its effects on the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing analyses using the fiducial lens (position tracer) sample M ag L im++. Magnification bias is parameterized by a coefficient that describes the response of the number of selected objects per unlensed area element to a change in the lensing convergence. We quantify this coefficient using the BALROG synthetic source injection catalog to account for the complexity of the selection function, and compare these results with simplified estimates. The resulting values of the magnification coefficients for each redshift bin are [3.16 ± 0.08, 2.76 ± 0.21, 4.09 ± 0.15, 4.42 ± 0.16, 4.90 ± 0.29, 4.83 ± 0.25]. Relative to Year 3, this analysis provides more precise and accurate magnification bias estimates through a larger BALROG area and reweighting to better match the data properties. Here, the cosmological results are robust when tested against various magnification parameter prior choices and also when adding cross-clustering between lens redshift bins. Neglecting magnification, however, introduces significant systematic shifts: relative to the fiducial analysis with Gaussian priors centered on the BALROG -derived estimates, we observe shifts of 1.37σ in S 8 and -0.84σ in Ω m (with cosmic shear included: -0.61σ in S 8 and -0.71σ in Ω m ), in agreement with findings from simulated data, demonstrating that magnification must be modeled to avoid biases. Freeing the magnification bias in lens bin 2 leads to unphysical negative values, further justifying its exclusion from the fiducial Year 6 analysis.

Cosmological parameters↗

DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Lifetime Prediction of Semiconductor Devices Using Hardware-in-the-Loop

This paper presents a unique approach to enable real-time lifespan prediction of semiconductor power modules using a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HIL) system. By integrating the module's overall loss characteristics-specifically switching and conduction losses-with a thermoelectric model of the thermal management system, this research demonstrates that the model can dynamically estimates the junction temperature profile of the semiconductor devices in response to a changing torque demand profile for the motor drive system. This capability enables continuous monitoring of the module's operational time and cumulative stress induced on the devices to compute accumulated remaining lifetime or time-to-failure (TTF). This study provides an architectural framework for the HIL system with high-fidelity component models of multiple physical domains, allowing simulation of dynamic behaviors of a closely-coupled motor drive system. The advanced real-time computation and measurement functionalities of the HIL system allow for both dynamic lifetime calculations based on simulated data and aggregate lifetime predictions utilizing historical data. Moreover, this paper details an algorithm that not only computes cumulative damage but also synthesizes these data into a comprehensive aggregated lifetime metric. This methodology can enhance the maintenance scheduling strategies and operational reliability of semiconductor devices in critical applications, ultimately extending their service life while optimizing performance.

hardware-in-the-loop (HIL)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Domain adaptation techniques for improved cross-domain study of galaxy mergers

In astronomy, neural networks are often trained on simulated data with the prospect of being applied to real observations. Unfortunately, simply training a deep neural network on images from one domain does not guarantee satisfactory performance on new images from a different domain. The ability to share cross-domain knowledge is the main advantage of modern deep domain adaptation techniques. Here we demonstrate the use of two techniques - Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and adversarial training with Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) - for the classification of distant galaxy mergers from the Illustris-1 simulation, where the two domains presented differ only due to inclusion of observational noise. We show how the addition of either MMD or adversarial training greatly improves the performance of the classifier on the target domain when compared to conventional machine learning algorithms, thereby demonstrating great promise for their use in astronomy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1972

Procedure for estimating stability and control parameters from flight test data by using maximum likelihood methods employing a real-time digital system

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedure and program were developed for the extraction of the stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data. Nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom equations describing aircraft dynamics were used to derive sensitivity equations for quasilinearization. The maximum likelihood function with quasilinearization was used to derive the parameter change equations, the covariance matrices for the parameters and measurement noise, and the performance index function. The maximum likelihood estimator was mechanized into an iterative estimation procedure utilizing a real time digital computer and graphic display system. This program was developed for 8 measured state variables and 40 parameters. Test cases were conducted with simulated data for validation of the estimation procedure and program. The program was applied to a V/STOL tilt wing aircraft, a military fighter airplane, and a light single engine airplane. The particular nonlinear equations of motion, derivation of the sensitivity equations, addition of accelerations into the algorithm, operational features of the real time digital system, and test cases are described.

Grove, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Orbit Determination Toolbox

The Orbit Determination Toolbox is an orbit determination (OD) analysis tool based on MATLAB and Java that provides a flexible way to do early mission analysis. The toolbox is primarily intended for advanced mission analysis such as might be performed in concept exploration, proposal, early design phase, or rapid design center environments. The emphasis is on flexibility, but it has enough fidelity to produce credible results. Insight into all flight dynamics source code is provided. MATLAB is the primary user interface and is used for piecing together measurement and dynamic models. The Java Astrodynamics Toolbox is used as an engine for things that might be slow or inefficient in MATLAB, such as high-fidelity trajectory propagation, lunar and planetary ephemeris look-ups, precession, nutation, polar motion calculations, ephemeris file parsing, and the like. The primary analysis functions are sequential filter/smoother and batch least-squares commands that incorporate Monte-Carlo data simulation, linear covariance analysis, measurement processing, and plotting capabilities at the generic level. These functions have a user interface that is based on that of the MATLAB ODE suite. To perform a specific analysis, users write MATLAB functions that implement truth and design system models. The user provides his or her models as inputs to the filter commands. The software provides a capability to publish and subscribe to a software bus that is compliant with the NASA Goddard Mission Services Evolution Center (GMSEC) standards, to exchange data with other flight dynamics tools to simplify the flight dynamics design cycle. Using the publish and subscribe approach allows for analysts in a rapid design center environment to seamlessly incorporate changes in spacecraft and mission design into navigation analysis and vice versa.

Carpenter, James R.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Manifold learning for coarse-graining atomistic simulations: Application to amorphous solids

In this work, we introduce a generalized machine learning framework to probabilistically parameterize upper-scale models in the form of nonlinear PDEs consistent with a continuum theory, based on coarse-grained atomistic simulation data of mechanical deformation and flow processes. The proposed framework utilizes a hypothesized coarse-graining methodology with manifold learning and surrogate-based optimization techniques. Coarse-grained high-dimensional data describing quantities of interest of the multiscale models are projected onto a nonlinear manifold whose geometric and topological structure is exploited for measuring behavioral discrepancies in the form of manifold distances. A surrogate model is constructed using Gaussian process regression to identify a mapping between stochastic parameters and distances. Derivative-free optimization is employed to adaptively identify a unique set of parameters of the upper-scale model capable of rapidly reproducing the system's behavior while maintaining consistency with coarse-grained atomic-level simulations. The proposed method is applied to learn the parameters of the shear transformation zone (STZ) theory of plasticity that describes plastic deformation in amorphous solids as well as coarse-graining parameters needed to translate between atomistic and continuum representations. We show that the methodology is able to successfully link coarse-grained microscale simulations to macroscale observables and achieve a high-level of parity between the models across scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Motion tomography via occupation kernels

The goal of motion tomography is to recover a description of a vector flow field using measurements along the trajectory of a sensing unit. In this paper, we develop a predictor corrector algorithm designed to recover vector flow fields from trajectory data with the use of occupation kernels developed by Rosenfeld et al. [9,10]. Specifically, we use the occupation kernels as an adaptive basis; that is, the trajectories defining our occupation kernels are iteratively updated to improve the estimation in the next stage. Initial estimates are established, then under mild assumptions, such as relatively straight trajectories, convergence is proven using the Contraction Mapping Theorem. We then compare the developed method with the established method by Chang et al. [5] by defining a set of error metrics. Here, we found that for simulated data, where a ground truth is available, our method offers a marked improvement over [5]. For a real-world example, where ground truth is not available, our results are similar results to the established method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inverse prediction of PuO2 processing conditions using Bayesian seemingly unrelated regression with functional data

Over the past decade, a variety of innovative methodologies have been developed to better characterize the relationships between processing conditions and the physical, morphological, and chemical features of special nuclear material (SNM). Different processing conditions generate SNM products with different features, which are known as “signatures” because they are indicative of the processing conditions used to produce the material. These signatures can potentially allow a forensic analyst to determine which processes were used to produce the SNM and make inferences about where the material originated. This article investigates a statistical technique for relating processing conditions to the morphological features of PuO 2 particles. We develop a Bayesian implementation of seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to inverse-predict unknown PuO 2 processing conditions from known PuO 2 features. Model results from simulated data demonstrate the usefulness of the technique. Applied to empirical data from a bench-scale experiment specifically designed with inverse prediction in mind, our model successfully predicts nitric acid concentration, while results for Pu concentration and precipitation temperature were equivalent to a simple mean model. Our technique compliments other recent methodologies developed for forensic analysis of nuclear material and can be generalized across the field of chemometrics for application to other materials.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

PySpawn: Software for Nonadiabatic Quantum Molecular Dynamics

The ab initio multiple spawning (AIMS) method enables nonadiabatic quantum molecular dynamics simulations in an arbitrary number of dimensions, with potential energy surfaces provided by electronic structure calculations performed on-the-fly. However, the intricacy of the AIMS algorithm complicates software development, deployment on modern shared computer resources, and post-simulation data analysis. PySpawn is a nonadiabatic molecular dynamics software package that addresses these issues. Here, the program is designed to be easily interfaced with electronic structure software, and an interface to the TeraChem software package is described here. PySpawn introduces a task-based reorganization of the AIMS algorithm, allowing fine-grained restart capability and setting the stage for efficient parallelization in a future release. PySpawn includes a user-friendly and interactive Python analysis module that will enable novice users to painlessly adopt AIMS. As a demonstration of PySpawn’s simulation capability and analysis module, we report complete active space self-consistent field–based AIMS simulations of the 1,2- dithienyl-1,2-dicyanoethene molecule, a promising molecular photoswitch.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1974

SICLOPS - A system of computer programs for rectified mapping of airborne scanner imagery

This paper describes SICLOPS, a system of computer programs, which has been developed to perform geometrically corrected line-by-line mapping of airborne multispectral scanner data to ground coordinates and to estimate ground areas. As inputs, SICLOPS accepts aircraft attitude and positional information furnished by ancillary aircraft equipment, plus ground truth information giving the location, in map grid coordinates, of a number of recognizable landmarks on the ground. The geometric correction and mapping procedure locates the scan lines, or the pixels on each line, in terms of map grid coordinates. The area estimation procedure gives ground area for each pixel or for a predesignated parcel specified in map grid coordinates. The results of exercising the system with simulated data showed the uncorrected video and corrected imagery and produced area estimates accurate to better than 99.7%. Real input data, though prepared, have not yet been processed by the system.

Spencer, M. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Analysis of Image Segmentation Hierarchies with a Graph-based Knowledge Discovery System

Currently available pixel-based analysis techniques do not effectively extract the information content from the increasingly available high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery data. A general consensus is that object-based image analysis (OBIA) is required to effectively analyze this type of data. OBIA is usually a two-stage process; image segmentation followed by an analysis of the segmented objects. We are exploring an approach to OBIA in which hierarchical image segmentations provided by the Recursive Hierarchical Segmentation (RHSEG) software developed at NASA GSFC are analyzed by the Subdue graph-based knowledge discovery system developed by a team at Washington State University. In this paper we discuss out initial approach to representing the RHSEG-produced hierarchical image segmentations in a graphical form understandable by Subdue, and provide results on real and simulated data. We also discuss planned improvements designed to more effectively and completely convey the hierarchical segmentation information to Subdue and to improve processing efficiency.

Tilton, James C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The WFIRST CGI Integral Field Spectrograph: Requirements and Performance Predictions

The WFIRST coronagraphic instrument (CGI) will demonstrate exoplanet spectroscopy using an integral field spectrograph (IFS). The CGI IFS, being designed and built at Goddard Space Flight Center, has a spectral resolution of R50 and is designed to accommodate a 20% bandpass spanning 600- 970 nm. The IFS is principally targeting the abundance of Methane features, with the primary coronagraph band being centered around 770nm. Key to the performance estimates are the achievable signal-to-noise (SNR) ratios and the stability of the microspectra over the course of tens and hundreds of hours. As a technology demonstration for CGI, the ability to close a wavefront control loop around the IFS, maintain a stable dark hole, and provide time resolved data that simultaneously spans spatial and spectral dimensions are crucial demonstrations for future observatories. The IFS is optimized both for coronagraphs and science observations with a potential future starshade. We highlight how the long duration observations, and requirements for both starshades and coronagraphs drive the IFS requirements and the calibrations required both onorbit and on the ground. We also provide further detail on the optomechanical design, its stability based on thermal and structural predictions, anticipated performance, and operations concept of the CGI IFS. The impact of these performance metrics are projected into simulated data products, demonstrating cube extraction of noisy images and the subsequent planet spectrum that can be extracted from them. These demonstrations and performance predictions are key to future missions such as LUVOIR and HabEx, whose principal science case relies on efficient spectroscopy of exoplanets.

Tyler Groff↗

DOE OSTI2024

Subhourly Clipping Correction Model Comparison

This work will compare the Allen method and Walker method of accounting for subhourly inverter clipping power losses in hourly PV performance models. The Allen method uses a matrix lookup based on DNI clearness and clipping potential to assign a clipping correction loss at each simulation timestep. The Walker method models the PV DC power input to the inverter as a distribution over the hourly timestep and uses integration over the timestep to determine the amount of clipping that occurs within the timestep. Both these models have been recently implemented in the System Advisor Model's (SAM) open-source code, and will be applied to hourly SURFRAD datasets to analyze the subhourly clipping loss predicted by each model for different system designs and inverter loading conditions. Both models will be compared to "true" 1-minute SURFRAD data simulations to see their accuracy against more accurate 1-minute clipping correction loss predictions. This model comparisons will be investigated in more detail at the PVSC conference in Seattle, Washington June 2024.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,MATHEMATICS A↗

DOE OSTI2023

Parallel Implementation of Nonadditive Gaussian Process Potentials for Monte Carlo Simulations

A strategy is presented to implement Gaussian process potentials in molecular simulations through parallel programming. Attention is focused on the three-body nonadditive energy, though all algorithms extend straightforwardly to the additive energy. The method to distribute pairs and triplets between processes is general to all potentials. Results are presented for a simulation box of argon, including full box and atom displacement calculations, which are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Data on speed-up are presented for up to 120 processes across four nodes. A 4-fold speed-up is observed over five processes, extending to 20-fold over 40 processes and 30-fold over 120 processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning predictions of diffusion in bulk and confined ionic liquids using simple descriptors

Ionic liquids have many intriguing properties and widespread applications such as separations and energy storage. However, ionic liquids are complex fluids and predicting their behavior is difficult, particularly in confined environments. We introduce fast and computationally efficient machine learning (ML) models that can predict diffusion coefficients and ionic conductivity of bulk and nanoconfined ionic liquids over a wide temperature range (350–500 K). The ML models are trained on molecular dynamics simulation data for 29 unique ionic liquids as bulk fluids and confined in graphite slit pores. This model is based on simple physical descriptors of the cations and anions such as molecular weight and surface area. Here, we also demonstrate that accurate results can be obtained using only descriptors derived from SMILES (simplified molecular-input line-entry system) codes for the ions with minimal computational effort. This offers a fast and efficient method for estimating diffusion and conductivity of nanoconfined ionic liquids at various temperatures without the need for expensive molecular dynamics simulations.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2003

Numerical simulation of the geographical sources of water for Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) Precipitation

There are several important research questions that the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is actively pursuing, namely: What is the intensity of the water cycle and how does it change? And what is the sustainability of water resources? Much of the research to address these questions is directed at understanding the atmospheric water cycle. In this paper, we have used a new diagnostic tool, called Water Vapor Tracers (WVTs), to quantify the how much precipitation originated as continental or oceanic evaporation. This shows how long water can remain in the atmosphere and how far it can travel. The model-simulated data are analyzed over regions of interest to the GEWEX community, specifically, their Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) that are in place in the United States, Europe, Asia, Brazil, Africa and Canada. The paper presents quantitative data on how much each continent and ocean on Earth supplies water for each CSE. Furthermore, the analysis also shows the seasonal variation of the water sources. For example, in the United States, summertime precipitation is dominated by continental (land surface) sources of water, while wintertime precipitation is dominated by the Pacific Ocean sources of water. We also analyze the residence time of water in the atmosphere. The new diagnostic shows a longer residence time for water (9.2 days) than more traditional estimates (7.5 days). We emphasize that the results are based on model simulations and they depend on the model s veracity. However, there are many potential uses for the new diagnostic tool in understanding weather processes and large and small scales.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ambient-Frequency-Data Based System-Level Inertia Estimation Using Physical Equation and its Practice on Hawaii Islands

Here, in this paper, a practical ambient-frequency-data-based inertia estimation method using a physical equation is proposed and validated by real measurement data from Hawaii island grids. With high renewable penetration, accurate inertia estimation is important and urgent. Ambient frequency oscillation always exists in power grids, so the proposed method has advantages of real-time inertia estimation and no need for additional disturbances. This paper first developed the physical equation for inertia estimation to offer a clear mechanism for easy implementation in practice. To apply the proposed method in actual grids, a practical method to extract the ambient frequency oscillation from frequency measurement is further proposed. The inertia estimation using the physical equation is validated by KIUC simulation data and HECO field data, in which error rates are around 2% and 8%, respectively. Practical inertia estimation is challenging due to the large amounts of resources contributing to the power grid's effective inertia, but the method provided in this paper can offer a novel way for practical inertia estimation, which can help renewable penetration to boost carbon-free grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Slope-induced errors in radar altimetry over continental ice sheets

Altimeter measurements of ranges to modelled irregular surfaces are simulated and two correction schemes are used to reconstruct the modelled surfaces from the simulated data. When the cross-track slope is negligible, the problem can be treated as two-dimensional and the relocation method is preferred to the slope correction method. In a two-dimensional test case, 85 percent of the slope-induced rms error was removed by the relocation method. The mean error along profiles of about 75 km or longer is usually reduced more than the rms error. An alternative slope correction scheme, which uses the local slope to calculate the expected error, is less effective in the two-dimensional case. Over a simulated three-dimensional surface, where groundtracks are widely spaced and cross-track slopes are significant, the slope-correction method must be used in at least the cross-track direction.

Brenner, A. C.↗