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Radiation Source Localization Using Surrogate Models Constructed from 3-D Monte Carlo Transport Physics Simulations

Recent research has focused on the development of surrogate models for radiation source localization in a simulated urban domain. We employ the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) code to provide high- delity simulations of radiation transport within an urban domain. The model is constructed to employ a source location (x, y, z) as input and return the estimated count rate for a set of speci ed detector locations. Because MCNP simulations are computationally expensive, we develop e cient and accurate surrogate models of the detector responses. We construct surrogate models using Gaussian processes (GP) and neural networks (NN) that we train and verify using the MCNP simulations. The trained surrogate models provide an e cient framework for Bayesian inference and experimental design. We employ Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, to infer the location and intensity of an unknown source. The DRAM results yield a posterior probability distribution for the source's location conditioned on the observed detector count rates. The posterior distribution exhibits regions of high and low probability within the simulated environment identifying potential source locations. In this manner, we can quantify the source location to within at least one of these regions of high probability in the considered cases. Employing these methods, we are able to reduce the space of potential source locations by at least 60%.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Cross-Modal Guidance for Fast Diffusion-Based Computed Tomography

Diffusion models have emerged as powerful priors for solving inverse problems in computed tomography (CT). In certain applications, such as neutron CT, it can be expensive to collect large amounts of measurements even for a single scan leading to sparse data sets from which it is challenging to obtain high quality reconstructions even with diffusion models. One strategy to mitigate this challenge is to leverage a complementary, easily available imaging modality; however, such approaches typically require retraining the diffusion model with large datasets. In this work, we propose incorporating an additional modality without retraining the diffusion prior, enabling accelerated imaging of costly modalities. We further examine the impact of imperfect side modalities on cross-modal guidance. Our method is evaluated on sparse-view neutron computed tomography, where reconstruction quality is substantially improved by incorporating X-ray computed tomography of the same samples.

Efimov, Timofey [ORNL] (ORCID:000900090098471X)↗

Topology induced crossover between Langevin, subdiffusion, and Brownian diffusion regimes in supercooled water

Despite extensive studies of supercooled water, it remains challenging to understand its peculiar dynamic anomalous properties. In this work, we integrated full atomistic simulations of supercooled water over the temperature range of room temperature to 200 K using a quantum-mechanics-based polarizable force field with the dressed dynamics method that couples fast collision events and slow reorganization dynamics of hydrogen-bond networks. Our analysis unveils the salient multiscale features in the transient relaxation dynamics of supercooled water. A classical Langevin behavior dominates at fast timescales, while long-time relaxations unveil two different activation barriers in two temperature regions: below and above 230 K. The modulation of the entropy spectrum by temperature is elucidated in terms of a three-state model underlined by the complexity of the water dynamics associated with a topological transition of a strong hydrogen-bond network. This state-dependent network topology is quantitatively characterized by power-law exponents of inverse network connectivity from 200 to 298 K. Finally, this work provides valuable guidance for further studies on the transient relaxation dynamics of supercooled water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Scaling Ensembles of Data-Intensive Quantum Chemical Calculations for Millions of Molecules

Deep learning models are efficient computational tools that can accelerate the inverse design of molecules with desired functional properties by generating predictions at a fraction of the time required by traditional quantum chemical approaches. To ensure that a model maintains accuracy and transferability across broad regions of the chemical space explored during the inverse design, it must be trained on massively large volumes of simulation data. This requires running large-scale ensemble quantum chemical calculations on high-performance computing (HPC) systems for data collection. However, the efficient execution of such large ensemble calculations and the management of large volumes of output data require tools that can judiciously utilize computational resources and manage metadata overhead on the file system. Therefore, we present a high-performance, scalable, ensemble management framework for performing data-intensive quantum chemical electronic structure calculations for organic molecules. This framework provides abstractions to plug different ab initio, first principles, and first principles-based semi-empirical methods and executes them efficiently at large scale on HPC systems. It dynamically distributes tasks to resources and uses tiered storage for managing large collections of files. We employed this framework to process over ten million organic molecules and generate open-source datasets that provide UV-vis absorption spectra by running time-dependent density-functional tight-binding calculations. It is the largest database containing molecular optical spectra that were simulated with quantum chemical methods in a consistent manner.

Mehta, Kshitij↗

Evaluating Terrain as a Turbulence Generation Method

When driving microscale large-eddy simulations with mesoscale model solutions, turbulence will take space to develop, known as fetch, on the microscale domain. To reduce fetch, it is common to add perturbations near the boundaries to speed up turbulence development. However, when simulating domains over complex terrain, it is possible that the terrain itself can quickly generate turbulence within the boundary layer. It is shown here that rugged terrain is able to generate turbulence without the assistance of a perturbation strategy; however, the levels of turbulence generated are improved when adding perturbations at the inlet. Flow over smoothed, but not flat, terrain fails to generate adequate turbulence throughout the boundary layer in all tests conducted herein. Sensitivities to the strength of the mean wind speed and boundary layer height are investigated and show that higher wind speeds produce turbulence over terrain features that slower wind speeds do not. Further, by increasing the height of the capping inversion, the effectiveness of topography alone to generate turbulence throughout the depth of the boundary is diminished. In all cases, the inclusion of a perturbation strategy improved simulation performance with respect to turbulence development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

State-level suicide mortality insights: a comparative study of VHA veterans and the whole US population

Background: Suicide is a leading cause of death in the US Comparative State-level spatial analysis between Veterans Health Administration (VHA veterans) and the whole US population can reveal differences in conditions for targeted interventions and intricate geographical patterns. Methods: The study population contains 2018 and 2019 suicide deaths of VHA veterans and the whole US population. They were used to calculate state-level rates. States were classified by whether their VHA veteran and whole US population rates were above or below respective mean rates. Local Moran’s I was leveraged to examine spatial autocorrelation. Results: State-level suicide mortality rates and disparities among states were generally higher for VHA veterans (2018: 37.3 ± 7.2; 2019: 46.8 ± 8.3) than for the whole US population (2018: 16.6 ± 4.3; 2019: 16.4 ± 4.4). For both populations, there were statistically significant clusters with high suicide rates. Over one-fourth of states demonstrated inverse relationships, with rates above mean for one group but below for other. VHA veterans are at higher risk with over one-third of states had greater than average veteran suicide risk ratio. Conclusions: VHA veterans are at higher risk than the whole population across all states. Mortality disparities among states and clusters of states with high and low rates suggest targeted interventions and cooperative health strategies may help address these differences.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Optimal experimental design for prediction based on push-forward probability measures

Incorporating experimental data is essential for increasing the credibility of simulation-aided decision making and design. This paper presents a method which uses a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to produce data-informed predictions of quantities of interest (QoI). Many strategies for optimal experimental design (OED) select data that maximize some utility that measures the reduction in uncertainty of uncertain model parameters, for example the expected information gain between prior and posterior distributions of these parameters. In this paper, we seek to maximize the expected information gained from the pushforward of an initial (prior) density to the push-forward of the updated (posterior) density through the parameter-to-prediction map. The formulation presented is based upon the solution of a specific class of stochastic inverse problems which seeks a probability density that is consistent with the model and the data in the sense that the push-forward of this density through the parameter-to-observable map matches a target density on the observable data. While this stochastic inverse problem forms the mathematical basis for our approach, we develop a one-step algorithm, focused on push-forward probability measures, that leverages inference-for-prediction to bypass constructing the solution to the stochastic inverse problem. A number of numerical results are presented to demonstrate the utility of this optimal experimental design for prediction and facilitate comparison of our approach with traditional OED.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Electromagnetic energy calibration of the SoLid detector with horizontal muons

SoLid is a neutrino experiment at very-short baselinesearching for active-to-sterile oscillations of reactorantineutrinos. The detection principle is based on the pairing oftwo types of solid scintillators: polyvinyl toluene and $^{6}$Li:ZnS(Ag), which is a new technology used in this field ofPhysics. In addition to good neutron-gamma discrimination, thissetup allows the detector to be highly segmented; the basicdetection unit is a 5 cm cube. High segmentation provides numerousadvantages including precise localisation of the Inverse Beta Decay(IBD) products, the derivation of an antineutrino energy estimatorbased on the isolated positron energy, and a powerful backgroundreduction tool that relies on the topological signature of thesignal. Finally, the system is read out by a network ofwavelength-shifting fibres coupled to photosensors. A relativeelectromagnetic calibration is performed with horizontal cosmicmuons. This source poses the simplest calibration problem in which asingle detection unit is involved. In addition, large muon energydeposits allow us to perform a calibration at the most detailedlevel (i.e. per fibre) and to accurately define the fraction ofenergy escaping to neighbouring detection cells. A statisticalprecision at the sub-percent level is reached. The paper alsodiscusses two methods to calibrate the absolute energy scale andpresents their implementation and results. The first method relieson horizontal muons, though the precision is limited to around 10%because of the uncertainty in the energy distribution of suchmuons. A novel, alternative method based on the radioactiveamericium-beryllium source is proposed. It takes advantage of theelectron-positron pair-production process and provides a calibrationpoint at 3.4 MeV (i.e. in the core of the IBD positronspectrum). The paper is concluded with various cross-check includinga determination of the energy spectrum of the standard cosmogenicbackground candle: $^{12}$B.

Abreu, Y. [Antwerp U.]↗

The completed SDSS-IV extended baryon oscillation spectroscopic survey: pairwise-inverse probability and angular correction for fibre collisions in clustering measurements

ABSTRACT The completed extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) catalogues contain redshifts of 344 080 quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2, 174 816 luminous red galaxies between 0.6 < z < 1.0, and 173 736 emission-line galaxies over 0.6 < z < 1.1 in order to constrain the expansion history of the Universe and the growth rate of structure through clustering measurements. Mechanical limitations of the fibre-fed spectrograph on the Sloan telescope prevent two fibres being placed closer than 62 arcsec in a single pass of the instrument. These ‘fibre collisions’ strongly correlate with the intrinsic clustering of targets and can bias measurements of the two-point correlation function resulting in a systematic error on the inferred values of the cosmological parameters. We combine the new techniques of pairwise-inverse probability and the angular upweighting (PIP+ANG) to correct the clustering measurements for the effect of fibre collisions. Using mock catalogues, we show that our corrections provide unbiased measurements, within data precision, of both the projected $\rm {\mathit{ w}_p}\left(\mathit{ r}_p\right)$ and the redshift-space multipole ξ(ℓ = 0, 2, 4)(s) correlation functions down to $0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$, regardless of the tracer type. We apply the corrections to the eBOSS DR16 catalogues. We find that, on scales $s\gtrsim 20\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ for ξℓ, as used to make baryon acoustic oscillation and large-scale redshift-space distortion measurements, approximate methods such as nearest-neighbour upweighting are sufficiently accurate given the statistical errors of the data. Using the PIP method, for the first time for a spectroscopic program of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, we are able to successfully access the one-halo term in the clustering measurements down to $\sim 0.1\, h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ scales. Our results will therefore allow studies that use the small-scale clustering to strengthen the constraints on both cosmological parameters and the halo occupation distribution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods and systems for obtaining reconstructed low-frequency seismic data for determining a subsurface feature

A computer-implemented method for obtaining reconstructed seismic data for determining a subsurface feature, includes: determining an initial training velocity model, training a machine learning model based on first training seismic data and second training seismic data generated from the training velocity model, the first training seismic data corresponding to one or more first frequencies, the second training seismic data corresponding to one or more second frequencies lower than the one or more first frequencies, obtaining, based on measured seismic data and the machine learning model, reconstructed seismic data corresponding to the one or more second frequencies, generating a velocity model based on the measured seismic data, the reconstructed seismic data, and a full waveform inversion (FWI), and when the generated velocity model does not satisfy a preset condition, updating the training velocity model based on the generated velocity model, to obtain updated reconstructed seismic data for determining a subsurface feature.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Almost strong zero modes at finite temperature

Interacting fermionic chains exhibit extended regions of topological degeneracy of their ground states as a result of the presence of Majorana or parafermionic zero modes localized at the edges. In the opposite limit of infinite temperature, the corresponding nonintegrable spin chains, obtained via generalized Jordan-Wigner mapping, are known to host so-called almost strong zero modes, which are long-lived with respect to any bulk excitations. Here we study the fairly unexplored territory that bridges these two extreme cases of zero and infinite temperature. We blend two established techniques for states, the Lanczos series expansion and a tensor network ansatz, uplifting them to the level of operator algebra. This allows us to efficiently simulate large system sizes for arbitrarily long timescales and to extract the temperature-dependent decay rates. We observe that for the Kitaev-Hubbard model, the decay rate of the edge mode depends exponentially on the inverse temperature 𝛽, and on an effective energy scale Δ eff that is greater than the thermodynamic gap of the system Δ.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

CO 2 zonal injection rate allocation and plume extent evaluation through wellbore temperature analysis

Temperature analysis during a pause in injection operations, known as warmback analysis, has been used in the petroleum industry for evaluating the injection conformance and estimating the location of the flooded front in applications, such as waterflooding oil reservoirs. Here in this work, methods are introduced to extend the application of temperature warmback analysis to estimate the zonal CO 2 injection rate and zonal CO 2 plume extent during geologic CO 2 storage in a saline aquifer. First, novel analytical solutions are developed to model transient temperature in the aquifer during the injection and subsequent shut-in periods considering two-phase flow (gaseous CO 2 and aqueous brine) conditions in the aquifer. The solution involves a discretization of the aquifer into regions; the energy and mass conservation equations for the regions are solved simultaneously considering appropriate boundary conditions at the interfaces. Two solutions techniques are presented: multi-region and three-region solutions. Inverse models are developed accordingly to evaluate the injection profile and estimate the extent of the plume front in the reservoir during the injection period. The multi-region solution results in an inversion approach that requires regression analysis. However, the three-region formulation results in a simple graphical technique for inverse modeling. The analytical solutions are validated against a thermally coupled reservoir simulation tool using different synthetic cases for CO 2 injection in deep saline aquifers. The results of the developed solutions provide a good match with numerical results during forward and inverse modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unraveling the Wrinkle in Time-Variable Sources with Lunes and Synthetic Seismic Data

In this report, we describe how to estimate the time-variable components of the seismic moment tensor and compare these estimates to the more conventional analysis that incorporates an assumption of the source time function (STF) across all components of the seismic moment tensor. The advantage of our method is that we are able to independently estimate the time-evolution of each component of the seismic moment tensor, which may help to resolve the complex source phenomena associated with buried explosions. By performing an eigen decomposition of the time-evolving seismic moment tensor components, we are able to plot the seismic mechanism as a trajectory on a lune diagram. This technique enables interpretation of the seismic mechanism as a function of time, as opposed to the more conventional analysis which assumes that the seismic mechanism is time invariant. Finally, we describe the differences between the seismic moment and the seismic moment rate STFs, how to implement each one in inversion schemes, and the relative strengths/weaknesses of each. Our key take-away is that we are able to distinguish nearly-overlapping sources with highly different mechanisms, such as an explosion immediately following an earthquake, by estimating moment rate from seismic data through a STF-invariant inversion for the full time-variable moment tensor.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Influence of sizing concentration on strength, stiffness, and porosity in textile grade carbon fiber (TCF)-Epoxy composites: Revealing inverse trends

The effect of fiber sizing (i.e., surface treatment) concentration (0 %, 1.36 %, 1.52 %, 1.94 %, and 2.13 %) on the mechanical properties (tensile, flexural, interlaminar shear strength (ILSS), and low velocity impact) of textile grade carbon fiber (TCF)-epoxy composite is examined. An inverse relationship between the strength and stiffness of the composite is observed with increased sizing concentration. The root mean square (RMS) roughness of the fiber surface increased from 17.8 nm (unsized) to 22.7 nm with 2.13 % sizing concentration. It was found that the tensile strength increased by 131 % from 221.4 ± 18.5 MPa (unsized) to 510.8 ± 28.05 MPa (for 1.36 % sizing) and further by 155 %–563.7 ± 14.95 MPa at 2.13 % sizing. On the contrary, the stiffness is initially increased by 126 % from 33.52 ± 7.80 GPa (unsized) to 75.9 ± 3.21 GPa (for 1.36 % sizing) but reduced with further increase in the sizing concentration. A single fiber pull-out test is simulated using the finite element method to validate the reverse trend in strength and stiffness. The varying sizing concentration is simulated by introducing an interface of varying thickness between fibers and matrix. Simulation results confirm that a thicker interface, corresponding to a higher sizing concentration, decreases interfacial shear stress, enhancing material strength while decreasing stiffness. The reverse trend in strength and stiffness with the sizing concentration aligns with experimental observations. In conclusion, the present study emphasizes the importance of sizing concentration for mechanical properties and provide a design criterion for customized high-strength and high-stiffness applications.

Porosity↗

Evaluation of methods to determine the surface mixing layer height of the atmospheric boundary layer in the central Arctic during polar night and transition to polar day in cloudless and cloudy conditions

This study evaluates methods to derive the surface mixing layer (SML) height of the Arctic atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) using in situ measurements inside the Arctic ABL during winter and the transition period to spring. An instrumental payload carried by a tethered balloon was used for the measurements between December 2019 and May 2020 during the year-long Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. Vertically highly resolved (centimeter scale) in situ profile measurements of mean and turbulent parameters were obtained, reaching from the sea ice to several hundred meters above ground. Two typical conditions of the Arctic ABL over sea ice were identified: cloudless situations with a shallow surface-based inversion and cloudy conditions with an elevated inversion. Both conditions are associated with significantly different SML heights whose determination as accurately as possible is of great importance for many applications. We used the measured turbulence profile data to define a reference of the SML height. With this reference, a more precise critical bulk Richardson number of 0.12 was derived, which allows an extension of the SML height determination to regular radiosoundings. Furthermore, we have tested the applicability of the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory to derive SML heights based on measured turbulent surface fluxes. The application of the different approaches and their advantages and disadvantages are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics

This document describes progress in the ARPA-E DIFFERENTIATE project titled “Context-Aware Learning for Inverse Design in Photovoltaics” during the period of May 2019 to May 2022. This project is being performed at Iowa State University, New York University, Stanford University, and National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The project aims to develop a new machine learning (ML) framework to significantly accelerate the design of organic microstructures for improved organic photovoltaic performance. In this project, we had developed an inverse design framework using Deep Learning called InvNets for generating microstructures with desired physics-driven properties. As a preliminary product, in Milestone 3, we demonstrated how InvNets show 20% improvement in the performance of the microstructures and over 100X speedup in the performance compared to traditional processes for physics-driven inverse design. Later, in Milestone 6, we demonstrated that InvNets work for more complex physics properties, specifically, generating microstructures for organic photovoltaic cells with desired current-voltage characteristics. Further, in Milestone 4, we explored the idea of using physics-aware surrogates for obtaining solutions of partial differential equations(PDE) called as DiffNets(now called as NeuFENets to avoid ambiguity of names). The connection between both frameworks is that DiffNet surrogates form the physics-aware surrogate in the InvNet framework. Finally in Milestone 8, we extend our framework for other physics domains. Specifically, we explore building geometry-aware NeuFENets by developing physics surrogates that exploit ideas from traditional immersed boundary finite element methods. With these updates, we are able to achieve all the Milestones.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Forward sensitivity analysis and mode dependent control for closure modeling of Galerkin systems

Model reduction by projection-based approaches is often associated with losing some of the important features that contribute towards the dynamics of the retained scales. As a result, a mismatch occurs between the predicted trajectories of the original system and the truncated one. We put forth a framework to apply a continuous time control signal in the latent space of the reduced order model (ROM) to account for the effect of truncation. We set the control input using parameterized models by following energy transfer principles. Our methodology relies on observing the system behavior in the physical space and using the projection operator to restrict the feedback signal into the latent space. Then, we leverage the forward sensitivity method (FSM) to derive relationships between the feedback and the desired mode-dependent control. We test the performance of the proposed approach using two test cases, corresponding to viscous Burgers and vortex merger problems at high Reynolds number. Results show that the ROM trajectory with the applied FSM control closely matches its target values in both the data-dense and data-sparse regimes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗