SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Stochastic systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,009 records · Page 56

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS1989

An approximate methods approach to probabilistic structural analysis

A major research and technology program in Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) is currently being sponsored by the NASA Lewis Research Center with Southwest Research Institute as the prime contractor. This program is motivated by the need to accurately predict structural response in an environment where the loadings, the material properties, and even the structure may be considered random. The heart of PSAM is a software package which combines advanced structural analysis codes with a fast probability integration (FPI) algorithm for the efficient calculation of stochastic structural response. The basic idea of PAAM is simple: make an approximate calculation of system response, including calculation of the associated probabilities, with minimal computation time and cost, based on a simplified representation of the geometry, loads, and material. The deterministic solution resulting should give a reasonable and realistic description of performance-limiting system responses, although some error will be inevitable. If the simple model has correctly captured the basic mechanics of the system, however, including the proper functional dependence of stress, frequency, etc. on design parameters, then the response sensitivities calculated may be of significantly higher accuracy.

Mcclung, R. C.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Determination of Nonlinear Stiffness Coefficients for Finite Element Models with Application to the Random Vibration Problem

In this paper, a method for obtaining nonlinear stiffness coefficients in modal coordinates for geometrically nonlinear finite-element models is developed. The method requires application of a finite-element program with a geometrically non- linear static capability. The MSC/NASTRAN code is employed for this purpose. The equations of motion of a MDOF system are formulated in modal coordinates. A set of linear eigenvectors is used to approximate the solution of the nonlinear problem. The random vibration problem of the MDOF nonlinear system is then considered. The solutions obtained by application of two different versions of a stochastic linearization technique are compared with linear and exact (analytical) solutions in terms of root-mean-square (RMS) displacements and strains for a beam structure.

Muravyov, Alexander A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor-dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter s performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor-bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Bard A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotordynamic Coefficients using an Extended Kalman Filter

Miller, Brad A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Identifying Bearing Rotodynamic Coefficients Using an Extended Kalman Filter

An Extended Kalman Filter is developed to estimate the linearized direct and indirect stiffness and damping force coefficients for bearings in rotor dynamic applications from noisy measurements of the shaft displacement in response to imbalance and impact excitation. The bearing properties are modeled as stochastic random variables using a Gauss-Markov model. Noise terms are introduced into the system model to account for all of the estimation error, including modeling errors and uncertainties and the propagation of measurement errors into the parameter estimates. The system model contains two user-defined parameters that can be tuned to improve the filter's performance; these parameters correspond to the covariance of the system and measurement noise variables. The filter is also strongly influenced by the initial values of the states and the error covariance matrix. The filter is demonstrated using numerically simulated data for a rotor bearing system with two identical bearings, which reduces the number of unknown linear dynamic coefficients to eight. The filter estimates for the direct damping coefficients and all four stiffness coefficients correlated well with actual values, whereas the estimates for the cross-coupled damping coefficients were the least accurate.

Miller, Brad A.↗

NASA NTRS2012

NASA Tech Briefs, April 2012

Topics include: Computational Ghost Imaging for Remote Sensing; Digital Architecture for a Trace Gas Sensor Platform; Dispersed Fringe Sensing Analysis - DFSA; Indium Tin Oxide Resistor-Based Nitric Oxide Microsensors; Gas Composition Sensing Using Carbon Nanotube Arrays; Sensor for Boundary Shear Stress in Fluid Flow; Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation; Qualification of Engineering Camera for Long-Duration Deep Space Missions; Remotely Powered Reconfigurable Receiver for Extreme Environment Sensing Platforms; Bump Bonding Using Metal-Coated Carbon Nanotubes; In Situ Mosaic Brightness Correction; Simplex GPS and InSAR Inversion Software; Virtual Machine Language 2.1; Multi-Scale Three-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation System for Coastal Ocean Prediction; Pandora Operation and Analysis Software; Fabrication of a Cryogenic Bias Filter for Ultrasensitive Focal Plane; Processing of Nanosensors Using a Sacrificial Template Approach; High-Temperature Shape Memory Polymers; Modular Flooring System; Non-Toxic, Low-Freezing, Drop-In Replacement Heat Transfer Fluids; Materials That Enhance Efficiency and Radiation Resistance of Solar Cells; Low-Cost, Rugged High-Vacuum System; Static Gas-Charging Plug; Floating Oil-Spill Containment Device; Stemless Ball Valve; Improving Balance Function Using Low Levels of Electrical Stimulation of the Balance Organs; Oxygen-Methane Thruster; Lunar Navigation Determination System - LaNDS; Launch Method for Kites in Low-Wind or No-Wind Conditions; Supercritical CO2 Cleaning System for Planetary Protection and Contamination Control Applications; Design and Performance of a Wideband Radio Telescope; Finite Element Models for Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication Process Autonomous Information Unit for Fine-Grain Data Access Control and Information Protection in a Net-Centric System; Vehicle Detection for RCTA/ANS (Autonomous Navigation System); Image Mapping and Visual Attention on the Sensory Ego-Sphere; HyDE Framework for Stochastic and Hybrid Model-Based Diagnosis; and IMAGESEER - IMAGEs for Education and Research.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

"Hybrid fracture/matrix modeling for well completion options evaluation"

Orientation and completion for well pairs that have been subjected to multi-zonal stimulation play a critical role in the long-term performance of an Enhanced Geothermal Reservoir. Here we present the development of a methodology to rapidly and efficiently numerically simulate mixed fracture-matrix flow systems for evaluation of well design and completion options. The methodology is based on a loose coupling framework, allowing the fracture and matrix systems to be meshed separately. The fracture system includes the integration of fracture growth and aperture data from well stimulation simulations of stochastically generated fracture networks. Automatic mesh refinement is used in the matrix simulation to resolve heat transfer near the fracture network. This simulation framework is used to efficiently determine optimal production and injection well placement using adaptive sampling.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control: Preprint

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2018

Simulation of Stochastic Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis–Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button–sized disk–shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300oC to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

residual tensile stress↗

DOE OSTI2023

Incorporation of market signals for the optimal design of post combustion carbon capture systems

Recent studies have shown that fossil generators equipped with post-combustion carbon capture (PCC) systems are needed to reduce the cost of deep decarbonization. Such generators need to be flexible and responsive to grid conditions, particularly in a high variable renewable energy (VRE) environment. In this work, we evaluate the net present value (NPV) of retrofitting an existing natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) unit with a flexible PCC system while incorporating market signals from a high VRE grid. We use our industrial partner’s NGCC configuration as representative of existing NGCC units and Svante’s rapid-temperature swing adsorption (TSA) for PCC. Because of its ability to rapidly startup/shutdown and ramp-up/ramp-down, the chosen capture technology is very attractive for load-following operations. For a given set of market signals, we formulate a two-stage stochastic multi-period optimization problem, under the price-taker assumption, to simultaneously optimize the design of the capture system and operation of the entire plant. Rigorous models for the NGCC unit, PCC system, and compression system are developed using commercial process simulators and validated with either plant or vendor data. For computational tractability, we develop surrogate/reduced-order models for use in the optimization problem. The surrogate model for the NGCC plant is constructed by linearizing the rigorous dynamic model at 75% load, while data-driven nonlinear surrogate models for the capture and compression systems are constructed using simulation data from the rigorous models. The optimization problem, formulated as a mixed integer bilinear program, is implemented in the IDAES® integrated platform and solved to global optimality using Gurobi 9.5. Using this formulation, we determine the profitability of retrofitting an existing NGCC unit with the chosen capture system for multiple regions in the U.S. under two scenarios with different carbon prices. Importantly, the results show that the optimal decision strongly depends on the region and on the carbon price, thereby demonstrating the importance of the inclusion of market signals in the design process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Limits on the isolation of stochastic vibration for microgravity space experiments

The limitations on the isolation of stochastic vibrations for microgravity space experiments are explored. These limitations result from the restricted interior space available for vibration isolation. A one-degree-of-freedom representation of the experiment-spacecraft system is used, and an ideal vibration actuator is assumed. A kinematic representation results, and the problem becomes one of finding the minimum acceleration trajectory within a pair of stochastic walls. The wall motion is characterized by an ergodic, stationary, zero-mean, Gaussian random process with known power spectral density. The geometry of the wall trajectories is defined in terms of their significant extrema and zero crossings. This geomemtry is used in defining a composite trajectory that has a mean square acceleratiaon lower than that on the optimal path satisfying the stochastic wall inequality constraints. The optimal control problem is solved on a return path yielding the mean square acceleration in terms of the distributions of significant maxima and first-passage time of the wall process. The methodology is applied to a microgravity isolation problem to find the lower bounds on root-mean-square acceleration given the disturbance power spectral density.

Knospe, C. R.↗

DOE OSTI2022

FORCE-DISPATCHES Integration - Initial Demonstration

Integrated energy systems (IES) combine, in mutually beneficial ways, power from variable renewable energy sources and nuclear power plants (NPP) to improve economic viability under uncertain market and weather conditions. The open-source Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite, developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), has enabled comprehensive modeling and simulation of IES. The capabilities within FORCE include grid portfolio optimization through the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) and the transient process model analysis library HYBRID, among others. Continuous efforts and investments from the IES programs have been made to expand and improve the versatility of the FORCE toolset in fiscal year 2022. Code-coupling and cross-tool communication have been important methods for improving this versatility. This report focuses on an additional workflow in the HERON tool for capacity and dispatch stochastic optimization through integration with the external tool Design Integration and Synthesis Platform to Advance Tightly Coupled Hybrid Energy Systems (DISPATCHES). DISPATCHES was primarily developed by the National Energy Technology Laboratory, in collaboration with other national laboratories, which included INL, universities, and industry partners. It is coupled to a library of algebraic models for specific plant components, and to a framework for stochastic optimization different from that provided in the current Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN)-running-RAVEN algorithm in HERON. HERON currently conducts stochastic optimization via an outer-inner loop: it optimizes over variable capacity on the outer loop, and at each step within the capacity parameter space, conducts an inner optimization over scenarios (of market signals, demand, and/or weather patterns) and hourly dispatch throughout a user-specified number of years. On the other hand, DISPATCHES conducts stochastic optimization via an “all-at-once” strategy in which capacity variables are optimized at the same level as dispatch variables, as all scenarios are considered at once. The latter method works especially well for projects of limited size and project length, as the necessary computational power and memory increases with the number of variables and scenarios. The new capability to use the DISPATCHES workflow in HERON enhances standalone simulations by leveraging FORCE tools—namely, the economic metrics from the Tool for Economic Analysis (TEAL) and reduced-order model (ROM) sampling from RAVEN. The initial demonstration of the DISPATCHES workflow simulates an existing nuclear-case flowsheet within the DISPATCHES repository—this models a NPP with a secondary revenue stream for hydrogen production. Electrical output from the plant is converted to hydrogen via a proton-exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzer, hydrogen tanks are used for storage, and an additional turbine is added for hydrogen combustion. Continued work regarding this FORCE-DISPATCHES integration will include automatic generation of DISPATCHES models from HERON inputs, offering analysts the option of using either the RAVEN-runsRAVEN or DISPATCHES workflow to solve technoeconomic optimization problems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

STOCHASTIC OPTIMAL POWER FLOW FOR REAL-TIME MANAGEMENT OF DISTRIBUTED RENEWABLE GENERATION AND DEMAND RESPONSE (Final Report)

To meet the grand challenge of a sustainable energy future, there has been a surge of interest in renewable energy. Today, the uncertainty associated with renewable resources is handled by using operating reserves. The high penetration of renewable resources, however, introduces difficult-to-control dynamics and challenges for power system operation. Decision support tools are necessary at the bulk system operational level to recognize and efficiently utilize renewable resources and distributed demand response products in concert with traditional grid resources. It is envisaged that responsive load can potentially have very significant cost advantages over either spinning or non-spinning ramping reserve. Critical decisions are made during hour(s)-ahead and real-time power system operation regarding the commitment and dispatch of generators to ensure power delivery is both reliable and economic. These decisions are typically made by a security constrained optimal flow, which determines future generator commitments, dispatches, and ensures adequate reserves are available in the event of a contingency (unexpected outage) or if future system conditions deviate from forecasts. However, security has been always based on a pre-specified subset of contingency constraints whose enforcement does not guarantee security under all possible future possibilities while also giving little or no weight to the likelihood of each contingent event or the severity of its consequences. Existing tools, which are based exclusively on deterministic optimization models, do not yield optimal operational decisions to address these new challenges, in terms of both reliability and cost-effectiveness. This project has focused on developing a stochastic optimal power flow (SOPF) framework, which integrates renewable resource uncertainty, load uncertainty, distributed storage (DS), demand response (DR) products, in a holistic manner to address the uncertainty associated with ever-increasing renewable resources, along with the inclusion of distributed demand response products in future power systems. A proof-of-concept problem was created using the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) power system network. Synthetic wind generation was added to the system to simulate 50% wind penetration. A 1-hour test of SOPF operation indicated more than 6% operational cost savings. The project continued by adding the Midwestern Independent System Operator (MISO) as a partner, with focus shifting from SOPF to Stochastic Look-Ahead Unit Commitment (SLAC). Unlike PJM, MISO is faced with significant renewable energy resources within its footprint and is challenged with substantial uncertainty in its operations. The SLAC distinguishes itself from existing tools that operators use. At best, today’s tools solve two to three cases independently, where one or two system parameters, such as forecasted load level (e.g., a low, base, and high forecast), are varied and the resulting scenarios are analyzed independently. The stochastic-based optimization of SLAC leverages statistical information from an ensemble of potential operational scenarios and their respective likelihood. The SLAC output can be translated into valuable information to the operator such as suggested commitments, optimal scheduling and dispatch of resources, reserve requirements at both locational and zonal resolutions, ramping availability and requirements, availability of demand response including operational guidance concerning the near-term and real-time coordination between distributed energy resources, and utilization of distributed storage resources. The developed SOPF/SLAC tool, a stand-alone tool compatible with existing EMSs, will provide system operators with unprecedented visibility, flexibility and predictability to these resources and operational guidance concerning the real-time coordination between DERs and DR/DS products. The game changing and practical impact of this disruptive technology will be dramatic and will usher in a new era in the electric power industry, wherein green energy concepts are fully embraced, and electric power costs are lowered throughout the nation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2018

Weibull-Based Stochastic Simulation of Mud-Crack Damage Formation in an Environmental Barrier Coating

The integrated Finite Element Analysis Micromechanics Analysis Code/Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures (FEAMAC/CARES) program was used to simulate the formation of mudflat-cracks from thermomechanical loading on a multi-layered Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC) system deposited on a ceramic substrate. FEAMAC/CARES combines MAC/GMC (Micromechanics Analysis Code/Generalized Method of Cells) multiscale composite micromechanics code with CARES/Life probabilistic multiaxial failure criteria code and Abaqusfinite element analysis. In this work, step function elastic modulus reduction of randomly damaged finite elements was used to represent discrete cracking events. The use of many small-sized low-aspect-ratio finite elements enabled the depiction of crack boundaries and formation of mudflat patterned damage. Demonstrated examples include finite element models of button-sized disk-shaped 3-D specimen, and a 2-D model of through-the-thickness cross-section. All models were subjected to a progressive cool down from 1300 degrees Centigrade to room temperature. Mudflat crack damage in the coating system resulted from the buildup of residual tensile stresses between the individual material constituents from thermal expansion mismatch. A 2-parameter Weibull distribution characterized the coating layer stochastic strength response and the effect of the Weibull modulus on the formation of damage was studied here.

Residual Tensile Stress↗

NASA NTRS1993

Stochastic performance modeling and evaluation of obstacle detectability with imaging range sensors

Statistical modeling and evaluation of the performance of obstacle detection systems for Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) is essential for the design, evaluation, and comparison of sensor systems. In this report, we address this issue for imaging range sensors by dividing the evaluation problem into two levels: quality of the range data itself and quality of the obstacle detection algorithms applied to the range data. We review existing models of the quality of range data from stereo vision and AM-CW LADAR, then use these to derive a new model for the quality of a simple obstacle detection algorithm. This model predicts the probability of detecting obstacles and the probability of false alarms, as a function of the size and distance of the obstacle, the resolution of the sensor, and the level of noise in the range data. We evaluate these models experimentally using range data from stereo image pairs of a gravel road with known obstacles at several distances. The results show that the approach is a promising tool for predicting and evaluating the performance of obstacle detection with imaging range sensors.

Matthies, Larry↗

NASA NTRS1983

Tradeoff studies in multiobjective insensitive design of airplane control systems

A computer aided design method for multiobjective parameter-insensitive design of airplane control systems is described. Methods are presented for trading off nominal values of design objectives against sensitivities of the design objectives to parameter uncertainties, together with guidelines for designer utilization of the methods. The methods are illustrated by application to the design of a lateral stability augmentation system for two supersonic flight conditions of the Shuttle Orbiter. Objective functions are conventional handling quality measures and peak magnitudes of control deflections and rates. The uncertain parameters are assumed Gaussian, and numerical approximations of the stochastic behavior of the objectives are described. Results of applying the tradeoff methods to this example show that stochastic-insensitive designs are distinctly different from deterministic multiobjective designs. The main penalty for achieving significant decrease in sensitivity is decreased speed of response for the nominal system.

Schy, A. A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Restoration Strategy for Active Distribution Systems Considering Endogenous Uncertainty in Cold Load Pickup

Cold load pickup (CLPU) phenomenon is identified as the persistent power inrush upon a sudden load pickup after an outage. Under the active distribution system (ADS) paradigm, where distributed energy resources (DERs) are extensively installed, the decreased outage duration can induce a strong interdependence between CLPU pattern and load pickup decisions. In this paper, we propose a novel modelling technique to tractably capture the decision-dependent uncertainty (DDU) inherent in the CLPU process. Subsequently, a two-stage stochastic decision-dependent service restoration (SDDSR) model is constructed, where first stage searches for the optimal switching sequences to decide step-wise network topology, and the second stage optimizes the detailed generation schedule of DERs as well as the energization of switchable loads. Further, to tackle the computational burdens introduced by mixed-integer recourse, the progressive hedging algorithm (PHA) is utilized to decompose the original model into scenario-wise subproblems that can be solved in parallel. The numerical test on modified IEEE 123-node test feeders has verified the efficiency of our proposed SDDSR model and provided fresh insights into the monetary and secure values of DDU quantification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupled Interfacial and Bulk Kinetics Govern the Timescales of Multiphase Ozonolysis Reactions

Chemical transformations in aerosols impact the lifetime of particle phase species, the fate of atmospheric pollutants, and both climate- and health-relevant aerosol properties. Timescales for multiphase reactions of ozone in atmospheric aqueous phases are governed by coupled kinetic processes between the gas phase, the particle interface, and its bulk, which respond dynamically to reactive consumption of O 3 . However, models of atmospheric aerosol reactivity often do not account for the coupled nature of multiphase processes. Herein, to examine these dynamics, we use new and prior experimental observations of aqueous droplet reaction kinetics, including three systems with a range of surface affinities and ozonolysis rate coefficients ( trans -aconitic acid (C 6 H 6 O 6 ), maleic acid (C 4 H 4 O 4 ), and sodium nitrite (NaNO 2 )). Using literature rate coefficients and thermodynamic properties, we constrain a simple two-compartment stochastic kinetic model which resolves the interface from the particle bulk and represents O 3 partitioning, diffusion, and reaction as a coupled kinetic system. Our kinetic model accurately predicts decay kinetics across all three systems, demonstrating that both the thermodynamic properties of O 3 and the coupled kinetic and diffusion processes are key to making accurate predictions. An enhanced concentration of adsorbed O 3 , compared to gas and bulk phases is rapidly maintained and remains constant even as O 3 is consumed by reaction. Multiphase systems dynamically seek to achieve equilibrium in response to reactive O 3 loss, but this is hampered at solute concentrations relevant to aqueous aerosol by the rate of O 3 arrival in the bulk by diffusion. As a result, bulk-phase O 3 becomes depleted from its Henry's law solubility. This bulk-phase O 3 depletion limits reaction timescales for relatively slow-reacting organic solutes with low interfacial affinity (i.e., trans-aconitic and maleic acids, with k rxn ≈ 10 3 -10 4 M -1 s -1 ), which is in contrast to fast-reacting solutes with higher surface affinity (i.e., nitrite, with k rxn ≈ 10 5 M -1 s -1 ) where surface reactions strongly impact the observed decay kinetics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗