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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Data Science for Weather Impacts on Crop Yield

Private businesses in sectors, such as food, energy, and retail, as well as public sector and federal agencies are interested in the predictive understanding of weather impacts on crop yield, which is an important aspect of food security. Scientific literature has mainly examined how crop yield is impacted by growing season-averaged weather indices. Although a few studies did consider weather extremes in their analysis, their scope was either restricted to measuring their conditional relationship with yield or the extreme event types considered were limited. Selection of regression models, whether the more commonly used linear approaches or nonlinear methods, have not been appropriately justified in this context. Here, we develop data-driven methods to examine two inter-related hypotheses for improved scientific understanding and enhanced predictive modeling. The first hypothesis, that extreme weather indices have a statistically significant information content in them is found to be valid based on linear and nonlinear methods for pairwise dependence. The second hypothesis, examines the value addition of nonlinear regression methods, and suggests that linear approaches may not alone be adequate. The results of this study can inform scientific understanding, generation and relevance of indices and end-to-end risk assessment systems in the context of climate impacts on crop yield. An immediate application may be in the context of NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) which facilitates the generation and dissemination of impacts relevant weather data and indices using a multitude of satellite-derived data sets and model outputs.

Data mining, food security, weather impacts↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Data-Driven Method for Synthetic Extreme Weather Generation and Solar Impact Assessment: Preprint

High-resolution, high-fidelity weather datasets are essential for testing and evaluating the resilience of power systems, particularly under extreme weather conditions. However, existing extreme weather datasets are typically derived from historical events that are localized and may lack the spatial and temporal resolution or scenario diversity needed to test largescale power systems. In this work, we propose a synthetic extreme weather simulation approach capable of generating targeted extreme events, such as hurricanes, using publicly available data sources. Preliminary results demonstrate the impact of a simulated Category 1 hurricane on renewable generation and critical infrastructure in California. The work aims to provide a flexible approach for creating multiple types of extreme weather scenarios across different regions, enabling comprehensive system stress testing, training, and resilience assessment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

The 2024 July 16 solar event: a challenge to the coronal mass ejection origin of long-duration gamma-ray flares

We present a multi-spacecraft analysis of the 2024 July 16 long-duration gamma-ray flare (LDGRF) detected by the Large Area Telescope on the Fermi satellite. The measured > 100 MeV γ-ray emission persisted for over seven hours after the flare impulsive phase, and was characterized by photon energies exceeding 1 GeV and a remarkably hard parent-proton spectrum. In contrast, the phenomena related to the coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shock linked to this eruption were modest, suggesting an inefficient proton acceleration unlikely to achieve energies well above the 300 MeV pion-production threshold to account for the observed γ-ray emission. Specifically, the CME was relatively slow (∼600 km/s) and the accompanying interplanetary type-II/III radio bursts were faint and short-lived, unlike those typically detected during large events. In particular, the type-II emission did not extend to kilohertz frequencies and disappeared ∼5.5 hours prior to the LDGRF end time. Furthermore, the associated solar energetic particle (SEP) event was very weak, short-duration, and limited to a few tens of MeV, even at magnetically well-connected spacecraft. These findings demonstrate that a very fast CME resulting in a high-energy SEP event is not a necessary condition for the occurrence of LDGRFs, challenging the idea that the high-energy γ-ray emission is produced by the back-precipitation of shock-accelerated ions into the solar surface. The alternative origin scenario based on local particle trapping and acceleration in large-scale coronal loops is instead favored by the observation of giant arch-like structures of hot plasma over the source region that persisted for the entire duration of this LDGRF.

Sun: UV radiation↗
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nonlinear Electrostatic Steepening of Whistler Waves: The Guiding Factors and Dynamics in Inhomogeneous Systems

Whistler mode chorus waves are particularly important in outer radiation belt dynamics due to their key role in controlling the acceleration and scattering of electrons over a very wide energy range. The efficiency of wave-particle resonant interactions is defined by whistler wave properties which have been described by the approximation of plane linear waves propagating through the cold plasma of the inner magnetosphere. However, recent observations of extremely high-amplitude whistlers suggest the importance of nonlinear wave-particle interactions for the dynamics of the outer radiation belt. Oblique chorus waves observed in the inner magnetosphere often exhibit drastically nonsinusoidal (with significant power in the higher harmonics) waveforms of the parallel electric field, presumably due to the feedback from hot resonant electrons. We have considered the nature and properties of such nonlinear whistler waves observed by the Van Allen Probes and Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions define during Substorms in the inner magnetosphere, and we show that the significant enhancement of the wave electrostatic component can result from whistler wave coupling with the beam-driven electrostatic mode through the resonant interaction with hot electron beams. Being modulated by a whistler wave, the electron beam generates a driven electrostatic mode significantly enhancing the parallel electric field of the initial whistler wave. Finally, we confirm this mechanism using a self-consistent particle-in-cell simulation. The nonlinear electrostatic component manifests properties of the beam-driven electron acoustic mode and can be responsible for effective electron acceleration in the inhomogeneous magnetic field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grain boundary softening from stress assisted helium cavity coalescence in ultrafine-grained tungsten

The formation of helium cavities in coarse-grained materials produces hardening proportional to the number density and size of the cavities and due to the interaction of dislocations with intragranular helium defects. In nanostructured metals containing a high density of interfacial sinks, preferential cavity formation in the grain boundaries instead produces softening that is often attributed to enhanced interfacial plasticity. Here, employing two grades of ultrafine-grained tungsten, we explore this effect using targeted implantation studies to map cavity evolution as a function of the irradiation conditions and quantify its impact on the mechanical response through nanoindentation. Softening is reported at implantation temperatures above the threshold for preferential grain boundary cavity formation but at a sufficiently low fluence prior to the growth of intragranular cavities. Collective changes in the mean cavity size, density, and morphology beneath a residual impression on an implanted surface indicate that cavity coalescence accompanied the reduction in hardness. Complementary atomistic simulations demonstrate that, in tungsten grain structures exhibiting softening, grain boundary bubble coalescence is driven by stress concentrations that further act to localize strain in the grain boundaries through cooperative deformation processes involving local atomic shuffling and sliding, dislocation emission, and even the nucleation of unstable twinning events.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2024

CO–induced roughening of Cu(111): formation and detection of reactive nanoclusters on metal surfaces

The formation of nanoclusters on metal surfaces in the presence of reactive environments is a phenomenon with important implications for catalysis. These nanoclusters are composed of atoms ejected from undercoordinated sites such as step edges, and their presence alters the catalytic properties of solid materials. We perform density functional theory (DFT) and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations to investigate the formation and reactivity of copper clusters on Cu(111). Our results indicate a considerably higher reactivity of small copper nanoclusters, with up to seven atoms in size on roughened copper surfaces than on pristine Cu(111) and Cu(211). Regarding the restructuring events that give rise to nanoclusters under CO atmospheres, we determine that the ejection of Cu atoms from step edges and their migration therefrom to adjacent Cu(111) terraces are, by and large, driven by CO coverage effects. By means of KMC simulations, which account for CO–CO lateral interactions and CO–induced surface restructuring, we show that temperature programmed desorption (TPD) holds promise for the detection of highly reactive nanoclusters. Furthermore, our approach showcases how surface restructuring and surface–adsorbate bond breaking can be combined when modeling surface reactions and contributes to the development of an advanced understanding of the nature of active site under reaction conditions.

catalyst dynamic restructuring↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Deep Learning-Driven Sampling Technique to Explore the Phase Space of an RNA Stem-Loop

The folding and unfolding of RNA stem-loops are critical biological processes; however, their computational studies are often hampered by the ruggedness of their folding landscape, necessitating long simulation times at the atomistic scale. Here, we adapted DeepDriveMD (DDMD), an advanced deep learning-driven sampling technique originally developed for protein folding, to address the challenges of RNA stem-loop folding. Although tempering- and order parameter-based techniques are commonly used for similar rare-event problems, the computational costs or the need for a priori knowledge about the system often present a challenge in their effective use. DDMD overcomes these challenges by adaptively learning from an ensemble of running MD simulations using generic contact maps as the raw input. DeepDriveMD enables on-the-fly learning of a low-dimensional latent representation and guides the simulation toward the undersampled regions while optimizing the resources to explore the relevant parts of the phase space. We showed that DDMD estimates the free energy landscape of the RNA stem-loop reasonably well at room temperature. Our simulation framework runs at a constant temperature without external biasing potential, hence preserving the information on transition rates, with a computational cost much lower than that of the simulations performed with external biasing potentials. Here, we also introduced a reweighting strategy for obtaining unbiased free energy surfaces and presented a qualitative analysis of the latent space. This analysis showed that the latent space captures the relevant slow degrees of freedom for the RNA folding problem of interest. Finally, throughout the manuscript, we outlined how different parameters are selected and optimized to adapt DDMD for this system. We believe this compendium of decision-making processes will help new users adapt this technique for the rare-event sampling problems of their interest.

Gupta, Ayush↗
DOE OSTI2020

Provenance infrastructure for multimodal x-ray experiments and reproducible analysis

Exploring relationships between material structures and desired properties for material discovery and synthesis requires mining machine-readable databases and linking experimental data with sufficiently rich annotations. There are vast gaps both in these data sources and in the connections between them. We present a provenance-based data management and analysis framework that enables capturing, persisting, and reanalyzing experimental data from the BNL National Synchrotron Light Source II (NSLS-II). Our system leverages NSLS-II Bluesky for experimental data acquisition, captures analysis parameters, and enriches the search space with results from the scientific literature. We describe in detail the challenges and benefits of data-driven approaches when comparing computational and experimental data, such as the multiple possible scenarios of interest in often ill-posed inverse problems and missing data. Our infrastructure utilizes the NSLS-II event model and includes discovery mechanisms across multiple beamlines. A text and data mining module using natural language processing classification techniques extracts relevant information from the literature that is added to data sources. We describe a provenance acquisition and analysis rerun workflow based on a directed acyclic graph that keeps track of process and data provenance and allows to replay analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

QUENCH DETECTION IN A SUPERCONDUCTING RADIO FREQUENCY CAVITY WITH COMBINED TEMPERATURE AND MAGNETIC FIELD MAPPING

Local dissipation of RF power in superconducting radio frequency cavities create so called "hot-spots", primary precursors of cavity quench driven by either thermal or magnetic instability. These hot-spots are detected by a temperature mapping system, and a large increase in temperature on the outer surface is detected during cavity quench events. Here, we have used combined magnetic and temperature mapping systems using anisotropic magneto-resistance (AMR) sensors and carbon resisters to locate the hot spots and areas with high trapped flux on a 3.0 GHz single-cell Nb cavity during the RF tests at 2.0 K. The quench location and hot spots were detected near the equator when the residual magnetic field in the Dewar is kept < 1 mG. The hot spots and quench locations moved when the magnetic field is trapped locally, as detected by T-mapping system. No significant dynamics of trapped flux is detected by AMR sensors, however change in magnetic flux during cavity quench is detected by a flux gate magnetometer, close to the quench location. The result provide the direct evidence of hot spots and quench events due to localized trapped vortices.

Ciovati, Gianluigi↗
DOE OSTI2024

A New Track Trigger for Characterization of the Antiproton-Induced Background in the Mu2e Experiment

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will enable the search for the neutrinoless muon to electron conversion in the field of an Al nucleus, a charged lepton flavor violating process. If observed, there would be a clear indication of physics beyond the Standard Model. Mu2e aims to reach a single event sensitivity of $3 /times 10^{-17}$, improving from the previous limit by 4 orders of magnitude. This improvement relies on the development of trigger selection systems, designed to discard data from background-induced events by placing kinematic, topological cuts on a particle’s reconstructed track. One of the largest sources of background Mu2e faces is proton-antiproton annihilation. These annihilations produce a 2 GeV shower of particles, among which there could be an electron that mimics the conversion electron signal, with an expected number of 0.010 ± 0.010. The large uncertainty on this number is dominated by the systematic uncertainty associated with the theoretical production model. To better characterize this background, we have developed an antiproton trigger selection by taking advantage of the track multiplicity and topology of these events. We discuss the steps taken in this development and the first performance study of this trigger, evaluating the signal efficiency and background rate. This trigger is essential to enable a data-driven analysis targeting the reduction of the systematic uncertainty of the antiproton-induced background in the Mu2e experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar and stellar coronae

A review of the observational facts of the X-ray corona of the sun suggests that the dissipation of waves plays at most a minor role in heating the corona. On the other hand, the random continuous shuffling and mixing of the footpoints of the bipolar magnetic fields, in which the X-ray corona resides, causes the spontaneous appearance of current sheets. Current sheets are highly dissipative, with a tendency to transient bursts of magnetic reconnection. Detailed observations show that the X-ray corona is made up of large numbers of small intense impulsive events of the same magnitude as expected from the bursts of reconnection. It appears, then, that it is the spontaneous current sheets that are the direct cause of the X-ray corona, driven by the continuous motions of the footpoints of the field in the photospheric convection.

Parker, E. N.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Minimum Arc Threshold Voltage Experiments on Extravehicular Mobility Unit Samples

The International Space Station (ISS) is now under construction in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The process of building the ISS requires that astronauts carry out many Extravehicular Activities. To protect the astronauts form the hazardous space environment, they are required to wear a suit known as the Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU). For most Extra-Vehicular Activities (EVAs) the EMU is tethered to ISS via a steel safety tether. During the course of an EVA it is common for the safety tether to contact exposed metal on both the ISS and the EMU. In this case, the single point ground of the EMU would be at the same potential as the ISS with respect to the LEO Plasma. In the event that the metal structure of the ISS begins to charge negative of the plasma potential as a result of electron collection by the ISS photovoltaic arrays, then the EMU would also be driven to a negative potential. Anodized aluminum components on the EMU would then begin to develop a charge across their amortization layer as ions from the plasma are collected. In the case where large negative potentials are applied to the EMU, dielectric breakdown may occur as a large voltage difference is developed across the thin amortization layer (oxide). The resulting arc plasma may in turn couple to the charge accumulated on the nearby ISS anodized debris shields and thereby generate a large current flow through the metal EMU structure. Current flow through the EMU could result in an electrocution hazard for the Crew Member inside the EMU - and therefore represents an important safety concern. To address this concern, a series of experiments have been undertaken. In each experiment specially prepared anodized aluminum samples were placed in a LEO representative plasma and charged until dielectric breakdown occurred in the form of an arc. This process was repeated a number of times for three sets of samples. During each test the arc voltage and current were monitored. A statistical treatment of the arc voltage threshold will be presented. In addition, safe operating voltages for the EMU are suggested.

Schneider, Todd↗
NASA NTRS2006

Analyzing Electric Field Morphology Through Data-Model Comparisons of the GEM IM/S Assessment Challenge Events

The storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field morphology and dynamics are assessed by comparing numerical modeling results of the plasmasphere and ring current with many in situ and remote sensing data sets. Two magnetic storms are analyzed, April 22,2001 and October 21-23,2001, which are the events selected for the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Inner Magnetosphere/Storms (IM/S) Assessment Challenge (IMSAC). The IMSAC seeks to quantify the accuracy of inner magnetospheric models as well as synthesize our understanding of this region. For each storm, the ring current-atmosphere interaction model (RAM) and the dynamic global core plasma model (DGCPM) were run together with various settings for the large-scale convection electric field and the nightside ionospheric conductance. DGCPM plasmaspheric parameters were compared with IMAGE-EUV plasmapause extractions and LANL-MPA plume locations and velocities. RAM parameters were compared with Dst*, LANL-MPA fluxes and moments, IMAGE-MENA images, and IMAGE-HENA images. Both qualitative and quantitative comparisons were made to determine the electric field morphology that allows the model results to best fit the plasma data at various times during these events. The simulations with self-consistent electric fields were, in general, better than those with prescribed field choices. This indicates that the time-dependent modulation of the inner magnetospheric electric fields by the nightside ionosphere is quite significant for accurate determination of these fields (and their effects). It was determined that a shielded Volland-Stern field description driven by the 3-hour Kp index yields accurate results much of the time, but can be quite inconsistent. The modified Mcllwain field description clearly lagged in overall accuracy compared to the other fields, but matched some data sets (like Dst*) quite well. The rankings between the simulations varied depending on the storm and the individual data sets, indicating that each field description did well for some place, time, and energy range during the events, as well as doing less well in other places, times, and energies. Several unresolved issues regarding the storm-time inner magnetospheric electric field are discussed.

Liemohn, Michael W.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of Future Climate-Driven Runoff on Six County WWT Facilities in New Jersey

The occurrence of extreme storms and associated flood hazards has increased in most regions in recent decades (Groisman et al. 2005, Alexander et al. 2006, Hegerl et al. 2011, Min et al. 2011). Extensive data on weather extremes since 1910 kept by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Climatic Data Center have shown an increasing trend (reaching more than 20%) in U.S. one-day extreme precipitation events. This trend is expected to continue in the future, with likely intensification of heavy precipitation events (Kunkel et al. 2010, Westra et al. 2013). Recently, Argonne has performed dynamic downscaling from global climate model (GCM) projections with high-resolution regional climate model, Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and projected future climate conditions for the middle of century (2035-2064). For this project, we incorporated our future climate projections into our hydrological modeling to evaluate potential effects of changing climate on streamflow near the six county WWT facilities in New Jersey to improve our understanding of climate-driven precipitation impacts and use this information to inform the potential risk of precipitation-affected infrastructures. The information for the future projected hydrological flow discharges was also provided to support a storm surge study. The study was expanded later to quantify likelihood of river discharges near WWT facilities with a statistical approach and informed the flood risk contributed by the river discharges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1999

On Heating the Sun's Corona by Magnetic Explosions: Feasibility in Active Regions and prospects for Quiet Regions and Coronal Holes

We build a case for the persistent strong coronal heating in active regions and the pervasive quasi-steady heating of the corona in quiet regions and coronal holes being driven in basically the same way as the intense transient heating in solar flares: by explosions of sheared magnetic fields in the cores of initially closed bipoles. We begin by summarizing the observational case for exploding sheared core fields being the drivers of a wide variety of flare events, with and without coronal mass ejections. We conclude that the arrangement of an event's flare heating, whether there is a coronal mass ejection, and the time and place of the ejection relative to the flare heating are all largely determined by four elements of the form and action of the magnetic field: (1) the arrangement of the impacted, interacting bipoles participating in the event, (2) which of these bipoles are active (have sheared core fields that explode) and which are passive (are heated by injection from impacted active bipoles), (3) which core field explodes first, and (4) which core-field explosions are confined within the closed field of their bipoles and which ejectively open their bipoles. We then apply this magnetic-configuration framework for flare heating to the strong coronal heating observed by the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope in an active region with strongly sheared core fields observed by the MSFC vector magnetograph. All of the strong coronal heating is in continually microflaring sheared core fields or in extended loops rooted against the active core fields. Thus, the strong heating occurs in field configurations consistent with the heating being driven by frequent core-field explosions that are smaller but similar to those in confined flares and flaring arches. From analysis of the thermal and magnetic energetics of two selected core-field microflares and a bright extended loop, we find that (1) it is energetically feasible for the sheared core fields to drive all of the coronal heating in the active region via a staccato of magnetic microexplosions, (2) the microflares at the feet of the extended loop behave as the flares at the feet of flaring arches in that more coronal heating is driven within the active bipole than in the extended loop, (3) the filling factor of the X-ray plasma in the core field microflares and in the extended loop is approximately 0.1, and (4) to release enough magnetic energy for a typical microflare (10^27 - 10^28 erg), a microflaring strand of sheared core field need expand and/or untwist by only a few percent at most. Finally, we point out that (1) the field configurations for strong coronal heating in our example active region (i.e., neutral-line core fields, many embedded in the feet of extended loops) are present in abundance in the magnetic network in quiet regions and coronal holes, and (2) it is known that many network bipoles do microflare and that many produce detectable coronal heating. We therefore propose that exploding sheared core fields are the drivers of most of the heating and dynamics of the solar atmosphere, ranging from the largest and most powerful coronal mass ejections and flares, to the vigorous microflaring and coronal heating in active regions, to the multitude of fine-scale explosive events in the magnetic network. The low-lysing exploding core fields in the network drive microflares, spicules, global coronal heating, and ,consequently, the solar wind.

Moore, Ronald L.↗