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DOE OSTI2021

Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29 ± 9 Tg-SO 2 /yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91 ± 0.44 %). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO 2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05 K ± 0.42 K and 2.28 ± 0.80 %, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081–2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (–3.79 ± 0.76 % for G6sulfur compared to –2.07 ± 0.40 % for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for deriving the telescope focus function and its uncertainty for a heterodyne pulsed Doppler lidar

Doppler lidars provide two measured parameters, radial velocity and signal-to-noise ratio, from which winds and turbulent properties are routinely derived. Attenuated backscatter, which gives quantitative information on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation in the atmosphere, can be used in conjunction with the winds and turbulent properties to create a sophisticated classification of the state of the atmospheric boundary layer. Calculating attenuated backscatter from the signal-to-noise ratio requires accurate knowledge of the telescope focus function, which is usually unavailable. Inaccurate assumptions of the telescope focus function can significantly deform attenuated backscatter profiles, even if the instrument is focused at infinity. Here, we present a methodology for deriving the telescope focus function using a co-located ceilometer for pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidars. The method was tested with Halo Photonics StreamLine and StreamLine XR Doppler lidars but should also be applicable to other pulsed heterodyne Doppler lidar systems. The method derives two parameters of the telescope focus function, the effective beam diameter and the effective focal length of the telescope. Additionally, the method provides uncertainty estimates for the retrieved attenuated backscatter profile arising from uncertainties in deriving the telescope function, together with standard measurement uncertainties from the signal-to-noise ratio. The method is best suited for locations where the absolute difference in aerosol extinction at the ceilometer and Doppler lidar wavelengths is small.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

NASA NTRS1970

Minimax control of a system with process uncertainty in substate space

The control of a single input-single output plant with parameter uncertainty was approached using a minimax technique. A linear time invariant controller results which requires only partial state feedback and is optimal in the sense that it minimizes a quadratic criterion involving tracking error, control, and parameter uncertainty. Bounded input-bounded output stability is guaranteed provided the transfer function has only left half plane zeros. If uncertainties are bounded, it is always possible to stabilize the system when sufficient control amplitude is available. The number of states required to generate the control is equal to the system order less the number of zeros.

Basuthakur, S.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Parameter uncertainties in control system design.

Development of a design method for including the effects of parameter uncertainties in the design of linear control systems. The approach taken to this problem may be classified as a special case of the stochastic control problem. Thus the formulation is based on the minimization of the expected value of a quadratic performance index defined in terms of the system state vector. The uncertainty in the value of the performance index is the result of the statistical nature of the system parameters rather than a random input signal. It is shown that the expected value of the performance index may be written as a sum of two terms under the assumption of first-order variations of the system state. The first of these terms expresses the nominal performance of the system when the system parameters assume their mean values. The second term represents the effect of the uncertainties on the expected value of the performance index, and is interpreted as an index of system sensitivity.

Palsson, T.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Incomplete state feedback for systems with parameter uncertainty and random disturbances

A unified design philosophy is presented for limited state feedback control problems with parameter uncertainty for both deterministic and stochastic problems. Two approaches are considered: linear compensator for the deterministic problem with parameter uncertainty, and for the single input-single output system with parameter uncertainty, a model on order equal to that of the system less the number of zeroes. The limitations of these approaches are discussed along with suggestions for further research.

Basuthakur, S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Modeling and parameter uncertainties for aircraft flight control system design

As aircraft designs trend toward further applications of control-configured vehicle concepts, aircraft control systems increasingly rely on stability augmentation to obtain normal flying qualities and reasonable structural margins. Although the control system designer would choose to have a perfect dynamic description of the vehicle, he knows that a level of uncertainty of plant dynamics will exist. This paper gives typical values of plant uncertainties for some recent aircraft design and development programs. Histories of pertinent aerodynamic, inertial, and structural parameters from program initiation to aircraft certification are given. These data can be used as typical of future vehicles so that control system design concepts can be evaluated with due consideration to their sensitivity to uncertainties in plant dynamics.

Rickard, W. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Effects of aerodynamic heating and TPS thermal performance uncertainties on the Shuttle Orbiter

A procedure for estimating uncertainties in the aerodynamic-heating and thermal protection system (TPS) thermal-performance methodologies developed for the Shuttle Orbiter is presented. This procedure is used in predicting uncertainty bands around expected or nominal TPS thermal responses for the Orbiter during entry. Individual flowfield and TPS parameters that make major contributions to these uncertainty bands are identified and, by statistical considerations, combined in a manner suitable for making engineering estimates of the TPS thermal confidence intervals and temperature margins relative to design limits. Thus, for a fixed TPS design, entry trajectories for future Orbiter missions can be shaped subject to both the thermal-margin and confidence-interval requirements. This procedure is illustrated by assessing the thermal margins offered by selected areas of the existing Orbiter TPS design for an entry trajectory typifying early flight test missions.

Goodrich, W. D.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The development of aerodynamic uncertainties for the Space Shuttle Orbiter

The methodology involved in developing the ability to reproduce aerodynamic results between various wind tunnel tests and to determine uncertainties due to differences between preflight aerodynamic predictions and flight results derived from analysis of past aircraft programs is presented. The uncertainties were developed for pitching moment, lateral-directional stability, rudder power, and aileron power, and were formulated to yield aerodynamic uncertainties for an orbital, manned first flight. The compressed development schedule required the aerodynamics results from wind tunnel tests be equipped with tolerances, which accounted for reasonable changes in the vehicle configuration. A worst case scenario was decided on, with the results that every prediction included the widest possible aerodynamic margins. Repeatibility was emphasized between wind tunnel model tests, and was achieved with an accuracy of 0.006 with inclusion of Reynolds effects.

Young, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A new design approach to achieve a minimum impulse limit cycle in the presence of significant measurement uncertainties

A new design was developed for the Space Shuttle Transition Phase Digital Autopilot to reduce the impact of large measurement uncertainties in the rate signal during attitude control. The signal source, which was dictated by early computer constraints, is characterized by large quantization, noise, bias, and transport lag which produce a measurement uncertainty larger than the minimum impulse rate change. To ensure convergence to a minimum impulse limit cycle, the design employed bias and transport lag compensation and a switching logic with hysteresis, rate deadzone, and 'walking' switching line. The design background, the rate measurement uncertainties, and the design solution are documented.

Martin, M. W.↗

NASA NTRS1982

The development and application of aerodynamic uncertainties in the design of the entry trajectory and flight control system of the Space Shuttle Orbiter

In connection with the decision to conduct with the Shuttle an orbital, manned mission on its first launch, certain problems arose related to mission safety, which had to be provided without the benefit of either a graduated flight test program or an initial unmanned flight concept. In an attempt to overcome these problems, the philosophy was adopted to provide a reasonable estimate of maximum possible errors in the preflight predicted aerodynamics. The flight control system (FCS) was to be certified on the basis of the estimated errors prior to STS-1. A set of 'worst case' aerodynamic uncertainties, defined as variations, was developed. As part of the first flight certification, variations, combined with other system uncertainties, were used to 'stress' the FCS through a multitude of simulations. Attention is given to an Orbiter description, the entry mission, the correlation of aerodynamic uncertainties, the application of aerodynamic variation in FCS and trajectory design, and the flight test results.

Gamble, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Uncertainty methodology for in-flight thrust determination

A methodology is proposed for the evaluation of uncertainty in the in-flight determination of aircraft thrust, which provides error traceability to a national standards laboratory, and is independent of the procedure used to calculate or measure thrust in flight, thereby yielding a consistent means for the evaluation of measurement capabilities. Attention is given to the factors of measurement error, precision, bias, uncertainty, error estimation and classification, error propagation, ground testing, and the related problems of model bias error, model precision error, and the uncertainty limit.

Adams, G. R.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of the uncertainties in velocity measurements with triple hot-wire probes

A detailed computerized sensitivity analysis of the triple hot-wire equations has been performed in order to delineate the uncertainties associated with measurements of the velocity components. Absolute and relative uncertainties for the instantaneous hot-wire outputs are calculated as functions of roll and pitch angles, based on a constant probability combination of the uncertainties in the inputs. From the results, it is concluded that the small inherent difficulties associated with the triple hot-wire data do not reflect artifacts introduced by the data processing. Fixed errors present in the V and W channels of the output are due to the nonzero measuring volume of the triple wire probe, and are entirely predictable.

Frota, M. N.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Pretest uncertainty analysis for chemical rocket engine tests

A parametric pretest uncertainty analysis has been performed for a chemical rocket engine test at a unique 1000:1 area ratio altitude test facility. Results from the parametric study provide the error limits required in order to maintain a maximum uncertainty of 1 percent on specific impulse. Equations used in the uncertainty analysis are presented.

Davidian, Kenneth J.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Quantifying uncertainties in the structural response of SSME blades

To quantify the uncertainties associated with the geometry and material properties of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade, a computer code known as STAEBL was used. A finite element model of the blade used 80 triangular shell elements with 55 nodes and five degrees of freedom per node. The whole study was simulated on the computer and no real experiments were conducted. The structural response has been evaluated in terms of three variables which are natural frequencies, root (maximum) stress, and blade tip displacements. The results of the study indicate that only the geometric uncertainties have significant effects on the response. Uncertainties in material properties have insignificant effects.

Nagpal, Vinod K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Measurement uncertainty for the Uniform Engine Testing Program conducted at NASA Lewis Research Center

An uncertainty analysis was conducted to determine the bias and precision errors and total uncertainty of measured turbojet engine performance parameters. The engine tests were conducted as part of the Uniform Engine Test Program which was sponsored by the Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Development (AGARD). With the same engines, support hardware, and instrumentation, performance parameters were measured twice, once during tests conducted in test cell number 3 and again during tests conducted in test cell number 4 of the NASA Lewis Propulsion Systems Laboratory. The analysis covers 15 engine parameters, including engine inlet airflow, engine net thrust, and engine specific fuel consumption measured at high rotor speed of 8875 rpm. Measurements were taken at three flight conditions defined by the following engine inlet pressure, engine inlet total temperature, and engine ram ratio: (1) 82.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.0, (2) 82.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.3, and (3) 20.7 kPa, 288 K, 1.3. In terms of bias, precision, and uncertainty magnitudes, there were no differences between most measurements made in test cells number 3 and 4. The magnitude of the errors increased for both test cells as engine pressure level decreased. Also, the level of the bias error was two to three times larger than that of the precision error.

Abdelwahab, Mahmood↗

NASA NTRS1988

The statistical uncertainty of flux densities in the IRAS serendipitous survey

The statistical uncertainty in the flux densities reported in the IRAS Serendipitous Survey Catalog (1986) is analyzed by examining differences in the measurements of sources in two independent observations. An assessment of the statistical uncertainty as a function of flux density in the Catalog has been made by accumulating these differences for over 4000 sources spanning a brightness range from 0.05 to over 20 Jy. The functional forms of the relative uncertainties at 12, 25, 60, and 100 microns are presented.

Cutri, Roc M.↗