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DOE OSTI2022

Neural network acceleration of large-scale structure theory calculations

Here, we make use of neural networks to accelerate the calculation of power spectra required for the analysis of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing data. For modern perturbation theory codes, evaluation time for a single cosmology and redshift can take on the order of two seconds. In combination with the comparable time required to compute linear predictions using a Boltzmann solver, these calculations are the bottleneck for many contemporary large-scale structure analyses. Here, we construct neural network-based surrogate models for Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT) predictions of matter power spectra, real and redshift space galaxy power spectra, and galaxy-matter cross power spectra that attain ~ 0.1% (at one sigma) accuracy over a broad range of scales in a ωCDM parameter space. The neural network surrogates can be evaluated in approximately one millisecond, a factor of 1000 times faster than the full Boltzmann code and LPT computations. In a simulated full-shape redshift space galaxy power spectrum analysis, we demonstrate that the posteriors obtained using our surrogates are accurate compared to those obtained using the full LPT model. We make our surrogate models public at https://github.com/sfschen/EmulateLSS, so that others may take advantage of the speed gains they provide to enable rapid iteration on analysis settings, something that is essential in complex contemporary large-scale structure analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Measuring the neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic cross section using the accelerator neutrino neutron interaction experiment

The Accelerator Neutrino Neutron Interaction Experiment (ANNIE) is a 26-ton gadolinium-doped water Cherenkov detector located on-axis to Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB). ANNIE is uniquely positioned to perform high-statistics measurements of neutrino-nucleus interactions in water, benefiting from a large neutrino flux due to a short (100-meter) baseline. A central focus of ANNIE’s physics program is the measurement of both charged current (CC) and neutral current (NC) cross sections on water, including neutral current quasielastic (NCQE) and CC-inclusive channels. The NCQE measurement is particularly critical for constraining uncertainties in rare-event searches such as the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background (DSNB), where atmospheric $\nu$NCQE interactions constitute a significant and poorly constrained background. This dissertation presents a measurement of the flux-averaged neutrino-oxygen neutral current quasielastic ($\nu$NCQE) cross section using $2.573 \times 10^{20}$~POT of BNB exposure from the 2022 and 2023 beam years. The $\nu$NCQE interaction is identified through the primary $\gamma$-rays produced by nuclear de-excitation of the residual $^{15}$N$^*$ or $^{15}$O$^*$ nucleus following nucleon knockout from $^{16}$O. A dedicated Monte Carlo (MC) re-tuning campaign was conducted using an americium-beryllium (AmBe) calibration source, Michel electrons from stopped muons, and throughgoing dirt muons originating upstream of the detector. This multi-sample approach provided a wide-ranging $\mathcal{O}(\text{MeV})$--$\mathcal{O}(\text{GeV})$ dataset for tuning the simulated detector response, which was subsequently validated against AmBe neutron and Michel electron data for use in the $\nu$NCQE analysis. A dedicated laser calibration campaign was carried out to reduce timing uncertainties across the PMT system, enabling reconstruction of the BNB bunch substructure with sufficient resolution to serve as a background rejection tool. By selecting events in-time with individual neutrino bunches, beam-correlated $\nu$NCQE events are separated from diffuse and accelerator-induced backgrounds, notably skyshine neutrons and externally-originating events, that would otherwise dominate traditional charge-based selections within a small-scale, surface-level, short-baseline detector. A data-driven estimation of the skyshine neutron and external background rates was performed and incorporated into the systematic uncertainty budget. The flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section on oxygen is measured to be $1.57 \pm 0.06\,(\text{stat.})$ $^{+0.91}_{-0.67}\,(\text{syst.})$ $\times 10^{-38}\ \text{cm}^{2}$. A full systematic budget is constructed by propagating uncertainties in the secondary hadronic interaction modeling, background cross section normalizations, detector response, neutrino flux, and the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probabilities from oxygen nuclear de-excitation. An idealized de-excitation model, constructed from existing measurements in the literature is developed to benchmark the predictions of the \textsc{GENIE} event generator. A comparison reveals that \textsc{GENIE} systematically overpredicts the primary $\gamma$-ray emission probability from oxygen de-excitation by a factor of $1.49\times$ for $E_\gamma > 6$~MeV and $3.07\times$ in the $3$--$6$~MeV band. This comparison motivates the dominant systematic uncertainty in this analysis, where a conservative uncertainty of $^{+39.9\%}_{-0\%}$ on the primary $\gamma$-ray signal prediction is assigned. The ANNIE result is consistent with and complementary to existing flux-averaged $\nu$NCQE cross section measurements from T2K and Super-Kamiokande, providing an independent measurement with a different detector, neutrino beam, and analysis methodology. Looking ahead, an upgrade to the ANNIE DAQ infrastructure enabling continuous extended readout will allow a complementary $\nu$NCQE neutron multiplicity measurement, directly relevant to constraining the NCQE background in DSNB searches, competitive with the recent T2K measurement at SK-Gd. The planned Super-SANDI upgrade, deploying a large Water-based Liquid Scintillator (WbLS) volume, will further extend ANNIE's reach to hadronic final states and exclusive NC channels, and enable joint measurements with liquid argon detectors sharing the BNB beamline ahead of DUNE and Hyper-Kamiokande.

Doran, Steven [Iowa State U.]↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comprehensive Analysis of Uncertainties in Warm-Rain Parameterizations in Climate Models Based on In Situ Measurements

Abstract Because of the coarse grid size of Earth system models (ESMs), representing warm-rain processes in ESMs is a challenging task involving multiple sources of uncertainty. Previous studies evaluated warm-rain parameterizations mainly according to their performance in emulating collision–coalescence rates for local droplet populations over a short period of a few seconds. The representativeness of these local process rates comes into question when applied in ESMs for grid sizes on the order of 100 km and time steps on the order of 20–30 min. We evaluate several widely used warm-rain parameterizations in ESM application scenarios. In the comparison of local and instantaneous autoconversion rates, the two parameterization schemes based on numerical fitting to stochastic collection equation (SCE) results perform best. However, because of Jessen’s inequality, their performance deteriorates when grid-mean, instead of locally resolved, cloud properties are used in their simulations. In contrast, the effect of Jessen’s inequality partly cancels the overestimation problem of two semianalytical schemes, leading to an improvement in the ESM-like comparison. In the assessment of uncertainty due to the large time step of ESMs, it is found that the rainwater tendency simulated by the SCE is roughly linear for time steps smaller than 10 min, but the nonlinearity effect becomes significant for larger time steps, leading to errors up to a factor of 4 for a time step of 20 min. After considering all uncertainties, the grid-mean and time-averaged rainwater tendency based on the parameterization schemes is mostly within a factor of 4 of the local benchmark results simulated by SCE.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2000

RFI and SCRIMP Model Development and Verification

Vacuum-Assisted Resin Transfer Molding (VARTM) processes are becoming promising technologies in the manufacturing of primary composite structures in the aircraft industry as well as infrastructure. A great deal of work still needs to be done on efforts to reduce the costly trial-and-error methods of VARTM processing that are currently in practice today. A computer simulation model of the VARTM process would provide a cost-effective tool in the manufacturing of composites utilizing this technique. Therefore, the objective of this research was to modify an existing three-dimensional, Resin Film Infusion (RFI)/Resin Transfer Molding (RTM) model to include VARTM simulation capabilities and to verify this model with the fabrication of aircraft structural composites. An additional objective was to use the VARTM model as a process analysis tool, where this tool would enable the user to configure the best process for manufacturing quality composites. Experimental verification of the model was performed by processing several flat composite panels. The parameters verified included flow front patterns and infiltration times. The flow front patterns were determined to be qualitatively accurate, while the simulated infiltration times over predicted experimental times by 8 to 10%. Capillary and gravitational forces were incorporated into the existing RFI/RTM model in order to simulate VARTM processing physics more accurately. The theoretical capillary pressure showed the capability to reduce the simulated infiltration times by as great as 6%. The gravity, on the other hand, was found to be negligible for all cases. Finally, the VARTM model was used as a process analysis tool. This enabled the user to determine such important process constraints as the location and type of injection ports and the permeability and location of the high-permeable media. A process for a three-stiffener composite panel was proposed. This configuration evolved from the variation of the process constraints in the modeling of several different composite panels. The configuration was proposed by considering such factors as: infiltration time, the number of vacuum ports, and possible areas of void entrapment.

Loos, Alfred C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Development of the Architectural Simulation Model for Future Launch Systems and its Application to an Existing Launch Fleet

A significant portion of lifecycle costs for launch vehicles are generated during the operations phase. Research indicates that operations costs can account for a large percentage of the total life-cycle costs of reusable space transportation systems. These costs are largely determined by decisions made early during conceptual design. Therefore, operational considerations are an important part of vehicle design and concept analysis process that needs to be modeled and studied early in the design phase. However, this is a difficult and challenging task due to uncertainties of operations definitions, the dynamic and combinatorial nature of the processes, and lack of analytical models and the scarcity of historical data during the conceptual design phase. Ultimately, NASA would like to know the best mix of launch vehicle concepts that would meet the missions launch dates at the minimum cost. To answer this question, we first need to develop a model to estimate the total cost, including the operational cost, to accomplish this set of missions. In this project, we have developed and implemented a discrete-event simulation model using ARENA (a simulation modeling environment) to determine this cost assessment. Discrete-event simulation is widely used in modeling complex systems, including transportation systems, due to its flexibility, and ability to capture the dynamics of the system. The simulation model accepts manifest inputs including the set of missions that need to be accomplished over a period of time, the clients (e.g., NASA or DoD) who wish to transport the payload to space, the payload weights, and their destinations (e.g., International Space Station, LEO, or GEO). A user of the simulation model can define an architecture of reusable or expendable launch vehicles to achieve these missions. Launch vehicles may belong to different families where each family may have it own set of resources, processing times, and cost factors. The goal is to capture the required resource levels of the major launch elements and their required facilities. The model s output can show whether or not a certain architecture of vehicles can meet the launch dates, and if not, how much the delay cost would be. It will also produce aggregate figures of missions cost based on element procurement cost, processing cost, cargo integration cost, delay cost, and mission support cost. One of the most useful features of this model is that it is stochastic where it accepts statistical distributions to represent the processing times mimicking the stochastic nature of real systems.

Rabadi, Ghaith↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laser Driven Hydrothermal Processing (LDHP) for Rapid Dissolution of Glassy Nuclear Debris

Discovered in 2009 on the SLAB laser system at LLNL, Laser-Driven Hydrothermal Processing (LDHP) both spalls and transiently dissolves a wetted surface (e.g., rock, concrete, paint) when that surface is struck by a laser beam pulse under specific conditions. Previous projects have explored the application of LDHP to expediting sample dissolution for post-detonation nuclear forensics. Early results were very promising, indicating that this method could decrease material dissolution time by a factor of 10 or more. However, the large and complicated lasers previously used are impractical for this application. Under the R^3 venture we aimed to benchmark the LDHP capabilities of turn-key commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) lasers, and to establish how this process could be integrated into an analytical workflow for nuclear forensic analysis. We demonstrated that geological rock standards could be quickly processed into fine powder by LDHP followed by complete acid digestion in 15 minutes, without elemental fractionation that would skew analytical results. We determined that the COTS laser can be used for LDHP that could potentially reduce dissolution time for solid nuclear debris samples in post detonation nuclear forensics. One downside to this approach, however, is that the laser interactions are different with every material, so extensive method validation would be required for all likely material compositions. The LDHP processing rates of several materials were tested and determined to be favorable in the beginning with significant slowdown due to particulate scattering. This could be mitigated either by stopping and centrifuging the sample at specific intervals, or through design of a continuous solvent flow through mechanism.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1991

Site-certification imaging sensor for the exploration of Mars

A 'time dilation' push-broom imaging CCD sensor is being considered for certification of landing and roving sites for the exploration of Mars. It will be used to certify several 10 x 10 km candidate sites and to identify rocks and holes of 1 m or larger at those sites, using an optical sensor with 0.25 m resolution. This will require a high-resolution large-aperture camera and a camera-pointing system designed for high accuracy and stability. To reduce the data rate and increase the exposure time, the imaging time will be stretched out by a factor of eight over the time required to fly directly over the imaged site. Six parallel data storage strings will be used to reduce the data acquisition rate, allowing each string to process a manageable 25 Mb/s.

Scholl, M. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Memory implications of the spin-value effect in soft multilayers

New multilayer permalloy materials with thin separation layers that have significantly increased M-R coefficients at room temperature have the potential for substantially increasing both the speed and density of M-R memories. An analysis in the following discussion shows that the bit density at a given performance level is related to the product of M-R response and sheet resistivity when operating at the current-density limit. With a doubling of both sheet resistivity and M-R response over existing materials, the bit area can be reduced by about a factor of 4. Alternatively, if the bit area is kept the same, signal output is increased by a factor of 4 and circuit time constants can be reduced by a factor of 16.

Pohm, A. V.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Method Improvements in Thermal Analysis of Mach 10 Leading Edges

Several improvements have recently been made in the thermal analysis methods for leading edges of a hypersonic vehicle. The leading edges of this vehicle undergo exceptionally high heat loads that incorporate extreme spatial gradients as well as severe transients. Due to the varying flight conditions, complex geometry, and need for thermal loads at many points along the trajectory, full computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the aeroheating; loads is not feasible. Thus, engineering methods must be used to determine the aeroheating on the vehicle surfaces, and that must be utilized in the thermal analysis. Over the last year, the thermal analysis of a hypersonic vehicle has been enhanced in several ways. Two different engineering codes are used to predict aeroheating loads: one over the curve near the stagnation point, and the other on flat surfaces downstream of the leading edge. These two are matched together at the intersection point using a method that allows closer approximation of CFD results. User-developed FORTRAN, which is part of the thermal solver PATRAN Thermal, is used to accomplish this. The customizable FORTRAN code also allows use of many different time- and space-dependent factors, interpolation of the heat load in time and space, and inclusion of both highly swept and unswept grid structures. This FORTRAN is available to other PATRAN users who may want to accomplish a similar objective in analysis. Flux, rather than convective coefficient, is used to define heat loads, which allows more accurate analysis as well as better application of margins. Improvements have also been made in more efficient utilization of imported CAD geometry, by creating faces on solids to facilitate load application.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Should Astronauts throw out their Trash? And if so, How?

We don’t think much about taking out the trash on Earth, but in space, it requires some thought. Should it even be thrown overboard? Besides the implications of littering in space, there are also practical considerations of whether waste materials can be reused for other purposes onboard or do they reduce mission efficiency. In a previous study, gasifying and venting trash along the way to Mars was found to noticeably reduce propellant needs and launch mass of the spacecraft, whereas keeping processed trash on board in the form of radiation shielding tiles would significantly lower the crew’s radiation dose during a solar particle event. The latest human exploration mission proposals will be considered with an eye toward answering the questions, “Should Astronauts throw out their Trash?” and “If so, what is the best way?” Besides reviewing the propulsion and radiation shielding aspects of the question, equivalent system mass factors of mass, power, volume, and crew time, as well as human factors, like smell, will be studied. Disposal options include jettison of an entire module containing waste, regular disposal of trash via an airlock, or gasifying waste products for easier disposal or reuse. Jettison via an airlock could take many forms, from “taking out the trash” on a spacewalk to launching trash tiles or pods with different mechanisms. Likewise, the “trash-to-gas” concept, which would allow for overboard venting via a pipe, has many thermochemical processes to choose from, each with their own pros and cons. Unraveling these various tradeoff studies is the goal of this paper.

trash↗

DOE OSTI2020

Upgrading the LANSCE accelerator with a SNS RF-driven H− ion source

The LANSCE accelerator is currently powered by a filament-driven, biased converter-type H− ion source that operates at 10%, the highest plasma duty factor for this type of source, using only ∼2.2 SCCM of H2. The ion source needs to be replaced every 4 weeks, which takes up to 4 days. The measured negative beam current of 12–16 mA falls below the desired 24 mA acceptance of the LANCSE accelerator. The SNS (Spallation Neutron Source) RF-driven, H− ion source injects ∼50 mA of H− beam into the SNS accelerator at 60 Hz with a 6% duty factor and an availability of >99.5% but requires ∼30 SCCM of H2. Up to 7 A h of H− have been produced during the 14-weeks-long source service cycles, which is unprecedented for small emittance, high-current, pulsed H− ion sources. The emittance of the SNS source is slightly smaller than the emittance of the LANSCE source. The SNS source also features unrivaled low Cs consumption and can be installed and started up in <12 h. LANSCE and SNS are working toward the use of SNS H− ion sources on the LANSCE accelerator because they could (a) fill the LANSCE accelerator to its capacity, (b) decrease the source replacement time by a factor of up to 7, and (c) increase source lifetime by a factor of about 4. This paper discusses some of the challenges that emerge when trying to match a different H− source into an existing injector with significantly different characteristics and operating regimes.

Stockli, Martin P.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Vibration and Acoustic Testing for Mars Micromission Spacecraft

The objective of the Mars Micromission program being managed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) for NASA is to develop a common spacecraft that can carry telecommunications equipment and a variety of science payloads for exploration of Mars. The spacecraft will be capable of carrying robot landers and rovers, cameras, probes, balloons, gliders or aircraft, and telecommunications equipment to Mars at much lower cost than recent NASA Mars missions. The lightweight spacecraft (about 220 Kg mass) will be launched in a cooperative venture with CNES as a TWIN auxiliary payload on the Ariane 5 launch vehicle. Two or more Mars Micromission launches are planned for each Mars launch opportunity, which occur every 26 months. The Mars launch window for the first mission is November 1, 2002 through April 2003, which is planned to be a Mars airplane technology demonstration mission to coincide with the 100 year anniversary of the Kittyhawk flight. Several subsequent launches will create a telecommunications network orbiting Mars, which will provide for continuous communication with lenders and rovers on the Martian surface. Dedicated science payload flights to Mars are slated to start in 2005. This new cheaper and faster approach to Mars exploration calls for innovative approaches to the qualification of the Mars Micromission spacecraft for the Ariane 5 launch vibration and acoustic environments. JPL has in recent years implemented new approaches to spacecraft testing that may be effectively applied to the Mars Micromission. These include 1) force limited vibration testing, 2) combined loads, vibration and modal testing, and 3) direct acoustic testing. JPL has performed nearly 200 force limited vibration tests in the past 9 years; several of the tests were on spacecraft and large instruments, including the Cassini and Deep Space One spacecraft. Force limiting, which measures and limits the spacecraft base reaction force using triaxial force gages sandwiched between the spacecraft and the test fixture, alleviates the severe overtest at spacecraft resonances inherent in rigid fixture vibration tests. It has the distinct advantage over response limiting that the method is not dependent on the accuracy of a detailed dynamic model of the spacecraft. Combined loads, vibration, and modal testing were recently performed on the QuikSCAT spacecraft. The combined tests were performed in a single test setup per axis on a vibration shaker, reducing test time by a factor of two or three. Force gages were employed to measure the true c.g. acceleration of the spacecraft for structural loads verification using a sine burst test, to automatically notch random vibration test input accelerations at spacecraft resonances based on predetermined force limits, and to directly measure modal masses in a base drive modal test. In addition to these combined tests on the shaker, the QuikSCAT spacecraft was subjected to a direct field acoustic test by surrounding the spacecraft, still on the vibration shaker, with rock concert type acoustic speakers. Since the spacecraft contractor does not have a reverberant field acoustic test facility, performing a direct field acoustic test -saved the program nearly two weeks schedule time that would have been required for packing / unpacking and shipping of the spacecraft. This paper discusses the rationale behind and advantages of the above test approaches and provides examples of their actual implementation and comparisons to flight data. The applicability of the test approaches to Mars Micromission spacecraft qualification is discussed.

Kern, Dennis L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Improvement of the photometric sunspot index and changes of the disk-integrated sunspot contrast with time

The photometric sunspot index (PSI) was developed to study the effects of sunspots on solar irradiance. It is calculated from the sunspot data published in the Solar-Geophysical Data catalog. It has been shown that the former PSI models overestimate the effect of dark sunspots on solar irradiance; furthermore results of direct sunspot photometry indicate that the contrast of spots depends on their area. An improved PSI calculation is presented; it takes into account the area dependence of the contrast and calculates `true' daily means for each observation using the differential rotation of the spots. Moreover, the observations are screened for outliers which improves the homogeneity of the data set substantially, at least for the period after December 1981 when NOAA started to report data from a few instead of one to two stations. A detailed description of the method is provided. The correlation between the newly calculated PSI and total solar irradiance is studied for different phases of the solar cycles 21 and 22 using bi-variate spectral analysis. The results can be used as a `calibration' of PSI in terms of gain, the factor by which PSI has to be multiplied to yield the observed irradiance change. The factor changes with time from about 0.6 in 1980 to 1.1 in 1990. This unexpected result cannot be interpreted by a change of the contrast relative to the quiet Sun (as it is normally defined and determined by direct photometry) but rather as a change of the contrast between the spots and their surrounding as seen in total irradiance (integrated over the solar disk). This may partly be explained by a change in the ratio between the areas of the spots and the surrounding faculae.

Froehlich, Claus↗

NASA NTRS1976

A study of the cosmic sources of hard X-rays

An actively-shielded, high-energy X-ray telescope was launched onboard OSO-8 on 21 June 1975. The primary objectives of this experiment are the measurements of the energy spectrum of discrete cosmic X-ray sources in the range 20 keV to 3 MeV and of the temporal variations in the intensity of each source detected with a time resolution of 0.3 msec. This detector provides the highest duty factor and the finest time resolution of any of its kind for observations over a period of up to 10 days. The background spectrum of this detector in orbit was monitored continuously since shortly after launch. The minimum detectable source strength is estimated to be between 10,000 and 100,000 photons/sq-cm-sec keV, limited primary by the effects of induced radioactivity. From 16 July through 18 July 1975, the X-ray binary, Cen X-3, was observed with the hard X-ray telescope.

Dennis, B. R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Psychosocial value of space simulation for extended spaceflight

There have been over 60 studies of Earth-bound activities that can be viewed as simulations of manned spaceflight. These analogs have involved Antarctic and Arctic expeditions, submarines and submersible simulators, land-based simulators, and hypodynamia environments. None of these analogs has accounted for all the variables related to extended spaceflight (e.g., microgravity, long-duration, heterogeneous crews), and some of the stimulation conditions have been found to be more representative of space conditions than others. A number of psychosocial factors have emerged from the simulation literature that correspond to important issues that have been reported from space. Psychological factors include sleep disorders, alterations in time sense, transcendent experiences, demographic issues, career motivation, homesickness, and increased perceptual sensitivities. Psychiatric factors include anxiety, depression, psychosis, psychosomatic symptoms, emotional reactions related to mission stage, asthenia, and postflight personality, and marital problems. Finally, interpersonal factors include tension resulting from crew heterogeneity, decreased cohesion over time, need for privacy, and issues involving leadership roles and lines of authority. Since future space missions will usually involve heterogeneous crews working on complicated objectives over long periods of time, these features require further study. Socio-cultural factors affecting confined crews (e.g., language and dialect, cultural differences, gender biases) should be explored in order to minimize tension and sustain performance. Career motivation also needs to be examined for the purpose of improving crew cohesion and preventing subgrouping, scapegoating, and territorial behavior. Periods of monotony and reduced activity should be addressed in order to maintain morale, provide meaningful use of leisure time, and prevent negative consequences of low stimulation, such as asthenia and crew member withdrawal. Leadership roles and lines of authority need to be studied further to understand the factors leading to status leveling, leadership competition, and role confusion. Finally, the relationship between crews and ground personnel should be characterized in order to minimize the displacement of anger and tension to the outside, to counter the effects of inter-group miscommunications, and to develop support strategies that can help to counter in-group/out-group conflicts. Ground-based space simulations still have a role to play in terms of understanding the impact of these factors and ways of dealing with them. In particular, issues involving language, cultural differences, gender biases, career motivation, monotonous conditions, use of free time, leadership, lines of authority, and the relationship between crews and outside monitoring personnel need to be further characterized and examined under controlled conditions. Until such time as these factors can be studied directly in space, simulations provide an opportunity to learn more about these psychosocial issues and to plan ways of minimizing their negative consequences during actual space missions.

NASA Discipline Number 00-00↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1995

Formation Of the Giant Planets By Concurrent Accretion Of Solids And Gas

New numerical simulations of the formation of the giant planets are presented, in which for the first time both the gas and planetesimal accretion rates are calculated in a self-consistent, interactive fashion. The simulations combine three elements: 1) three-body accretion cross-sections of solids onto an isolated planetary embryo, 2) a stellar evolution code for the planet's gaseous envelope, and 3) a planetesimal dissolution code within the envelope, used to evaluate the planet's effective capture radius and the energy deposition profile of accreted material. Major assumptions include: The planet is embedded in a disk of gas and small planetesimals with locally uniform initial surface mass density, and planetesimals are not allowed to migrate into or out of the planet's feeding zone. All simulations are characterized by three major phases. During the first phase, the planet's mass consists primarily of solid material. The planetesimal accretion rate, which dominates that of gas, rapidly increases owing to runaway accretion, then decreases as the planet's feeding zone is depleted. During the second phase, both solid and gas accretion rates are small and nearly independent of time. The third phase, marked by runaway gas accretion, starts when the solid and gas masses are about equal. It is engendered by a strong positive feedback on the gas accretion rates, driven by the rapid contraction of the gaseous envelope and the rapid expansion of the outer boundary, which depends on the planet's total mass. The overall evolutionary time scale is generally determined by the length of the second phase. The actual rates at which the giant planets accreted small planetesimals is probably intermediate between the constant rates assumed in most previous studies and the highly variable rates that we have used. Within the context, of the adopted model of planetesimal accretion, the joint constraints of the time scale for dissipation of the solar nebula and the current high-Z masses of the giant planets lead to estimates of the initial surface density (sigma(sub init)) of planetesimals in the outer region of the solar nebula. The results show sigma(sub init) approx. = 10 g/sq cm near Jupiter's orbit and that sigma(sub init) proportional to alpha(sup -2), where alpha is the distance from the Sun. These values are a factor of 3 - 4 times as high as that of the "minimum mass" solar nebula at Jupiter's distance and a factor of 2 - 3 times as high it Saturn's distance. Our estimates for the formation time of Jupiter and Saturn are 1 - 10 million years while those for Uranus fall in the range of 2 - 16 million years. These estimates follow from the properties of our Solar System and do not necessarily apply to giant planets in other planetary systems.

Pollack, James B.↗