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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

A Provably Accurate Randomized Sampling Algorithm for Logistic Regression

In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.

Chowdhury, Agniva↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward $\nu_{\mu}$CC $\eta$ Meson Cross Sections on Argon in SBND

The modeling of resonant neutrino interactions on argon is critical for achieving precision neutrino oscillation measurements and searching for physics beyond the Standard Model with both DUNE and the Short-Baseline Neutrino Program. Higher mass resonances beyond the $\Delta$(1232) baryon are particularly poorly constrained experimentally, and yet contribute a significant rate in multi-GeV interactions. The measurement of $\eta$(548) meson production from the decay of these resonances provides a unique probe, as well as the opportunity to measure observables sensitive to final state interactions with the nucleus. This poster will present progress towards the measurement of meson production with the Short-Baseline Near Detector (SBND) at Fermilab, leveraging the clean $\eta \rightarrow \gamma \gamma$ decay channel. The large statistics of the SBND dataset will provide high-precision measurements of this channel capable of constraining uncertainties in the modeling of higher order resonant interactions. This analysis further provides important handles on electromagnetic shower reconstruction performance through evaluation of the 548 MeV $\eta$ invariant mass peak.

Antonakis, Alexander [UC, Santa Barbara]↗
DOE OSTI2024

ℤ2 × ℤ2 Equivariant Quantum Neural Networks: Benchmarking against Classical Neural Networks

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of Equivariant Quantum Neural Networks (EQNNs) and Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs), juxtaposed against their classical counterparts: Equivariant Neural Networks (ENNs) and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). We evaluate the performance of each network with three two-dimensional toy examples for a binary classification task, focusing on model complexity (measured by the number of parameters) and the size of the training dataset. Our results show that the Z2×Z2 EQNN and the QNN provide superior performance for smaller parameter sets and modest training data samples.

Dong, Zhongtian (ORCID:0000000210003454)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Global rules for translating land-use change (LUH2) to land-cover change for CMIP6 using GLM2

Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change activities play a critical role in Earth system dynamics through significant alterations to biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties at local to global scales. To quantify the magnitude of these impacts, climate models need consistent land-cover change time series at a global scale, based on land-use information from observations or dedicated land-use change models. However, a specific land-use change cannot be unambiguously mapped to a specific land-cover change. Here, nine translation rules are evaluated based on assumptions about the way land-use change could potentially impact land cover. Utilizing the Global Land-use Model 2 (GLM2), the model underlying the latest Land-Use Harmonization dataset (LUH2), the land-cover dynamics resulting from land-use change were simulated based on multiple alternative translation rules from 850 to 2015 globally. For each rule, the resulting forest cover, carbon density and carbon emissions were compared with independent estimates from remote sensing observations, U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization reports, and other studies. The translation rule previously suggested by the authors of the HYDE 3.2 dataset, that underlies LUH2, is consistent with the results of our examinations at global, country and grid scales. This rule recommends that for CMIP6 simulations, models should (1) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary and secondary land (including both forested and non-forested) to cropland, urban land and managed pasture; (2) completely clear vegetation in land-use changes from primary forest and/or secondary forest to rangeland; (3) keep vegetation inland-use changes from primary non-forest and/or secondary non-forest to rangeland. Our analysis shows that this rule is one of three (out of nine)rules that produce comparable estimates of forest cover, vegetation carbon and emissions to independent estimates and also mitigate the anomalously high carbon emissions from land-use change observed in previous studies in the 1950s. According to the three translation rules, contemporary global forest area is estimated to be 37.42×106 km2, within the range derived from remote sensing products. Likewise, the estimated carbon stock is in close agreement with reference biomass datasets, particularly over regions with more than 50 % forest cover

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Operational Drivers of Multimodal Biometric Verification in Aerial Surveillance

Multimodal biometric verification is increasingly applied across operational contexts ranging from close-range security cameras and building-mounted surveillance to long-range ground sensors and unmanned aerial system (UAS) imagery. Variations in acquisition conditions—such as image resolution, viewing geometry, and motion artifacts—pose significant challenges for cross-domain algorithmic generalization. This study evaluates two independent multimodal biometric verification systems developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) Biometric Recognition and Identification at Altitude and Range (BRIAR) program, comparing performance on close-range and aerial datasets. Close-range video served as a baseline to quantify the decline in verification performance on aerial footage. The dataset included six UAS platforms, spanning small quadcopters at 10m altitude to medium-sized fixed-wing aircraft at 360m. Mixed-effects logistic regression identified image resolution (head and body pixel counts), head height, sensor characteristics, and algorithm selection as primary determinants of verification success, whereas demographic attributes and mission gait were not significant predictors. Activity type and collection site influenced performance in close-range data but had negligible impact on UAS imagery. These results clarify modality-specific strengths and limitations and highlight opportunities to enhance cross-domain biometric verification.

Peluso, Alina [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000328950406)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A parcel-level evaluation of distributed wind opportunity in the contiguous United States

This study examines the potential for distributed wind (DW) energy across the contiguous United States, leveraging advancements in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's distributed wind model, dWind. The novel modeling approach described here utilizes a high-resolution dataset and analyzes over 150 million parcels, a significant improvement from prior methods that extrapolated results from a smaller random sample. This achievement is enabled through key model performance improvements, such as transitioning to multiprocessing, which reduces runtime by 97 %. This optimized, high-resolution approach allows the inspection of technology deployment potential and impact on a variety of scales tailored to individual properties and regions. The results here align with prior work showing substantial opportunity for energy generation using DW technologies. Key findings reveal a substantial increase from prior results in estimated technical and economic potential for DW. Metrics tuned to highlight economic potential also show increased incentives supporting rural adoption. Results are spatially aggregated for usability and published via the U.S. Department of Energy Wind Data Portal and a custom scenario visualization platform, aiding policymakers, industry, and property owners in assessing DW viability across various scenarios and spatial scales.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cyber risk assessment and investment optimization using game theory and ML-based anomaly detection and mitigation for wide-area control in smart grids

The electric power grid is increasingly becoming susceptible to cyber attacks that exploit vulnerabilities in the smart grid control, information, and physical layers. Successful cyber attacks can have catastrophic impacts on the social and economic well-being of any nation all over the globe. It has, thus, become imperative to secure the smart grid against such adversarial actions to ensure stable, secure, and reliable operation of the grid. The existing research and industry practices prove to be inadequate in terms of providing pragmatic and effective defense methodologies and measures for long-term cybersecurity planning and real-time cybersecurity for grid operation. For example, existing works lack models that incorporate uncertain behavior of cyber-attackers and pragmatic defense measures for cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity investment optimization which often provide unreliable and strictly qualitative solutions to these problems. At the same time, with the growing number of cyber incidents in the grid, there still exists a need to develop attack-resilient algorithms for wide-area monitoring, protection, and control (WAMPAC) applications like the wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) for Flexible AC Transmissions Systems (FACTS) that lack in scalable and feasible solutions from the cybersecurity perspective. This dissertation proposes novel models and methodologies for: (1) Cybersecurity planning, and (2) Cybersecurity for system operation. The cybersecurity planning is achieved through cyber risk assessment and cybersecurity resource investment optimization for long-term cybersecurity of the grid using game theory and attack-defense trees. Cybersecurity for system operation consists of development of cyber anomaly detection and mitigation algorithms for flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) controller-based wide-area voltage control systems (WAVCS) using machine learning (ML), and software defined networking-based moving target defense network routing for achieving real-time cyber-physical security for grid operations. This is followed by hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) implementation and evaluation of these attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies showcasing their feasibility in a close to real-world environment. For cybersecurity planning, a novel approach involving a combination of game theory and attack defense trees (ADT) for optimal cybersecurity resource allocation in the smart grid is proposed. This methodology involves modeling of the cyber-physical smart grid substations as ADTs, defining attacker costs, defense costs, and attack probabilities for attack access points. Using game theoretical formulation, optimal defense strategies for the defender of the system to invest cybersecurity resources in the grid are obtained. Additionally, a game-theoretic framework is developed for quantitative cyber-physical risk assessment of the grid under a dynamically changing cyber threat space and uncertain behavior of cyber attackers which is further used to optimize investments in the smart grid's cybersecurity resources. The attacker, defender, and the smart grid system are modeled while incorporating attacker-stochasticity and federal guidelines for smart grid cybersecurity. This allows quantification of threat, vulnerabilities, and attack impact of the grid for quantitative risk assessment. The defender's budget to invest in the security resources in the grid is optimized based on the strategies leading to minimum system risk. The evaluation of the proposed solutions highlight the feasibility for practical implementation of these methodologies and algorithms in the smart grid, while taking the federal requirements and guidelines for smart grid security into consideration. For achieving cybersecurity for system operation, attack prevention, detection, and mitigation algorithms and methodologies are developed specifically for FACTS-based WAVCS. Anomaly detection and mitigation in the WAVCS are achieved using algorithms based on machine learning which involves offline training and testing of ML models with CPS datasets incorporating physics-based features that allow accurate distinction between system faults and cyber attacks. For attack prevention, a methodology based on software defined network (SDN)-based moving target defense (MTD) network routing is proposed that enables prevention of Denial of Service (DoS) type attacks on the smart grid communication system. Subsequently, these methodologies and algorithms are implemented and evaluated on an HIL testbed that allows for real-time attack prevention, detection, and mitigation of emulated cyber attacks on the WAVCS in a close to real-world environment. The results show highly accurate and efficient performance of the implemented algorithms and methodologies with the smart grid system operating within the NERC's system operation limits even in the presence of DoS and data integrity cyber attacks. This work opens up future research opportunities in other directions such as (1) Expanding cybersecurity planning methodologies to real-time cyber contingency analysis with different game formulations; and (2) Applying the cybersecurity for system operation algorithms to broader categories of wide-area control applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

BrazilClim : The overcoming of limitations of pre‐existing bioclimate data

Abstract Species distribution modelling has become instrumental in assessing the influence of environmental conditions on the occurrence or abundance of taxa. The set of environmental layers used for this purpose is a crucial aspect, for which different climate‐based (bioclimatic) datasets have been recently developed. These bioclimatic variables result from combinations of precipitation and temperatures surfaces. Here, we explored both the performance and possibility of improving some of the currently available bioclimatic databases, through an evaluation of the precipitation and temperatures surfaces used to generate them. For this purpose, we used a combination of statistic and graphic approaches. We focused on Brazil, not only due to its natural megadiversity, but also due to its continental size and orographic heterogeneity: an excellent ground for refining methods replicable elsewhere. We found a better match between the climatic data measured on‐field and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B43 v7) in the case of precipitation, and the surfaces provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the case of temperatures, sources uncommonly used for species niche modelling. We gauge‐calibrated the best performing surfaces using machine‐learning algorithms and generated corrected surfaces that allowed us to create BrazilClim: a database of bioclimatic variables, based on improved primary surfaces, which will result in more assertive predicted distributions and more actual pictures of the species' ecological requirements for megadiverse Brazil, an approach replicable elsewhere. All primary and bioclimatic surfaces generated for this study may be freely downloaded.

Ramoni‐Perazzi, Paolo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Impacts on the South American Monsoon System and Its Surface–Atmosphere Processes Through RegCM4 CORDEX-CORE Projections

Here, we evaluate projected changes in surface water and energy balances and surface–atmosphere coupling in the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) for the end of the century (2080–2099). The analyses are based on two ensemble datasets, which follow Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 in the future period, and cover four subdomains (Northern and Southern—NAMZ and SAMZ—Amazon, La Plata Basin—LPB, and Southern Southeast Brazil—SSB). One ensemble consists of three Global Climate Models (HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR and NorESM1-M), while the other consists of their dynamically downscaled version at 25 km horizontal grid spacing using Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4). As both ensembles are able in reproducing the annual cycle of the components of the surface water and energy balances in the present climate, they can be used in the study of future climate. During the wet season (November–March), both ensembles project a decrease in precipitation over NAMZ and SAMZ (an exception is RegCM4 that projects a slight increase in SAMZ), and an increase across the LPB and SSB. These changes do not cause retreat or expansion of the monsoon area over the continent, which is similar to the present climate (1995–2014). For the wet season, the ensembles are in line with the presence of a strong surface–atmosphere coupling in LPB and SSB, weak coupling in SAMZ and very weak coupling in NAMZ. For future climate, the coupling is even weaker in NAMZ, which may be a driver for the negative changes in precipitation. For the other subdomains, while the ensembles project similar signals of precipitation changes, they disagree with the surface-atmosphere coupling highlighting the uncertainties in future climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the effect of late bombardment on terrestrial zircons

The first 500 million years of Earth history is thought to be a period of intense planetary bombardment, but the timing and flux of this meteorite bombardment is poorly understood. In particular, on the basis of an inferred lunar impact history, some workers have hypothesized a ~3.9 Ga terminal cataclysm (TC) in which there was marked increase in the impact flux affecting the Moon, the Earth and possibly other terrestrial planets. Minerals that survived this enigmatic period offer a way to test early planetary bombardment models as they may contain telltale micro- to nanoscale shock features. Here, we present results from a numerical modeling calculation that assesses the probability that a zircon residing in the crust would escape shock melting or shock deformation during a TC bombardment event. Even with conservative pressure estimates for zircon shock deformation and intermediate bombardment intensities, we find that only ~6% of ≥4.0 Ga crust would be expected to survive a 3.9 Ga cataclysm without experiencing either complete melting or zircon shock metamorphism. In this study, we couple this modeling with a search for shock effects in the oldest zircons from the Acasta Gneiss Complex, which would have been present in the Earth's crust during a putative 3.9 Ga TC. Spatially correlated electron and NanoSIMS ion microscopy of 4.02 Ga igneous zircons from Acasta reveals no evidence of ancient shock. These data, together with similar results from other Hadean zircon suites, confirm that a post-Hadean TC is unlikely to have occurred. We suggest that the dearth of pre-3.9 Ga terrestrial crust and zircons is instead best explained by endogenic processes related to the mechanisms of early crust formation. Our modeling allows us to evaluate bombardment scenarios from the terrestrial zircon record by applying probabilistic interpretations to zircon shock deformation data. This approach will be valuable for other planetary bodies, allowing broader conclusions to be drawn from geographically limited datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RWRtoolkit: multi-omic network analysis using random walks on multiplex networks in any species

Abstract We introduce RWRtoolkit, a multiplex generation, exploration, and statistical package built for R and command-line users. RWRtoolkit enables the efficient exploration of large and highly complex biological networks generated from custom experimental data and/or from publicly available datasets, and is species agnostic. A range of functions can be used to find topological distances between biological entities, determine relationships within sets of interest, search for topological context around sets of interest, and statistically evaluate the strength of relationships within and between sets. The command-line interface is designed for parallelization on high-performance cluster systems, which enables high-throughput analysis such as permutation testing. Several tools in the package have also been made available for use in reproducible workflows via the KBase web application.

Kainer, David (ORCID:0000000172714676)↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEDUPKV: A Space-Efficient and High-Performance Key-Value Store via Fine-Grained Deduplication

Log-Structured Merge Tree (LSM-tree) based key-value stores excel in write-intensive environments but suffer from data duplication, consuming up to 49% of storage space in LSM-tree-based key-value store deployments. Traditional solutions like compression and coarse-grained file system-level deduplication introduce overhead or have limited effectiveness. In this study, we propose DedupKV, a fine-grained deduplication framework tailored for LSM-tree, maximizing data reduction efficiency while minimizing write stalls and read overheads. DedupKV features three key innovations: (1) FLUSH-integrated inline deduplication, which removes duplicates during memory-to-storage writes; (2) WAL file-based offline deduplication, repurposing write-ahead logs to avoid double writes; and (3) elastic execution, dynamically balancing inline and offline deduplication based on memory pressure and workload intensity. Additionally, dynamic granularity management reduces deduplication metadata overhead. We implemented these four ideas in RocksDB for the first time and conducted experiments in a Linux environment. Our evaluation shows that WAL file-based offline deduplication and DedupKV outperform BlobDB by 33% and 23%, respectively, in write-heavy workloads, while reducing write amplification by 1.2 ×, 2 ×, and 1.6 × for real KV datasets.

Jamil, Safdar [Sogang University]↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overview of the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) System

This report provides an overview on the Geoanalytical Economic Evaluation of Saline Storage (GEESS) system which characterized 57 geologic saline formations targeted for geologic carbon storage across the lower-48 U.S. states using publicly available resources. The GEESS system consists of high spatial resolution datasets (up to 5 km grid spacing) that provide key geologic parameters (e.g., depth, thickness, permeability), and estimates of CO 2 plume size and CO 2 first-year break-even price that were determined by exercising GEESS data through the FECM/NETL CO 2 Saline Storage Cost Model (CO2_S_COM). The GEESS geodatabase is available on NETL’s EDX at GEESS Geodatabase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Screening and qualification methodology for SiC end plug processing methods

Deployment of SiC-ceramic-based fuel cladding for light water reactors requires a hermetic end plug–to–cladding joint that can withstand neutron irradiation during normal operation and maintain integrity during design-basis accidents. Reactor experiments have shown that some SiC composite tubes with SiC end plugs can retain hermeticity after irradiation. However, achieving consistent joint performance under irradiation remains a key challenge. Resolving this issue is essential to enable integral irradiation testing and to demonstrate fuel integrity under commercial-reactor irradiation conditions. This report aims to: (1) provide guidance for designing radiation-tolerant end plug joints for SiC cladding; (2) demonstrate experimental methods to detect processing defects that are unstable under neutron irradiation at light-water-reactor-relevant temperatures and doses; and (3) outline a step-by-step approach for designing and conducting reactor experiments to screen joining methods. The resulting data will be used to improve joint processing and to define critical defect types and sizes that must be detected and eliminated through non-destructive evaluation for quality assurance. Based on prior irradiation experiments at the High Flux Isotope Reactor, differential swelling among the cladding, bonding layer, and end plug was identified as an underlying mechanism for irradiation-induced joint degradation. Accordingly, this effect must be considered in the design of radiation-tolerant joining techniques. In this work, miniature SiC end plug joint specimens irradiated during the previous project were analyzed using X-ray computed tomography to characterize the joint microstructure. Digital volume correlation of the tomography data quantified radiation-induced microstructural changes and enabled evaluation of defect-related risks. Finally, ongoing neutron irradiation efforts using larger specimen volumes are presented. These efforts aim to statistically assess joint performance and to build a microstructure–performance (e.g., leak-tightness) dataset to inform processing improvements and quality control.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Historical Bolide Infrasound Dataset (1960–1972)

We present the first fully curated, publicly accessible archive of infrasonic records from ten large bolide events documented by the U.S. Air Force Technical Applications Center’s global microbarometer network between 1960 and 1972. Captured on analog strip-chart paper, these waveforms predate modern digital arrays and space-based sensors, making them a unique window on meteoroid activity in the mid-twentieth century. Prior studies drew important scientific conclusions from the records but released only limited artifacts, chiefly period–amplitude tables and unprocessed scans, leaving the underlying data inaccessible for independent study. The present release transforms those limited excerpts into a research-ready resource. By capturing ten large events in the mid-20th century, the dataset constitutes a critical reference point for assessing bolide activity before the advent of modern space-based and digital ground-based monitoring. The multi-year coverage and worldwide distribution of events provide a valuable reference for comparing past and more recent detections, facilitating assessments of long-term flux and the dynamics of acoustic wave propagation in Earth’s atmosphere. The dataset’s availability in a consolidated format ensures straightforward access to waveforms and derived measurements, supporting a wide range of scientific inquiries into bolide physics and infrasound monitoring. By preserving these historical acoustic observations, the collection maintains a significant record of mid-20th-century meteoroid entries. It thereby establishes a basis for further refinement of impact hazard evaluations, contributes to historical continuity in atmospheric observation, and enriches the study of meteoroid-generated infrasound signals on a global scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

IoT Intrusion Detection Taxonomy, Reference Architecture, and Analyses

This paper surveys the deep learning (DL) approaches for intrusion-detection systems (IDSs) in Internet of Things (IoT) and the associated datasets toward identifying gaps, weaknesses, and a neutral reference architecture. A comparative study of IDSs is provided, with a review of anomaly-based IDSs on DL approaches, which include supervised, unsupervised, and hybrid methods. All techniques in these three categories have essentially been used in IoT environments. To date, only a few have been used in the anomaly-based IDS for IoT. For each of these anomaly-based IDSs, the implementation of the four categories of feature(s) extraction, classification, prediction, and regression were evaluated. We studied important performance metrics and benchmark detection rates, including the requisite efficiency of the various methods. Four machine learning algorithms were evaluated for classification purposes: Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), and an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Therefore, we compared each via the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The study model exhibits promising outcomes for all classes of attacks. The scope of our analysis examines attacks targeting the IoT ecosystem using empirically based, simulation-generated datasets (namely the Bot-IoT and the IoTID20 datasets).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field evaluation of semi‐automated moisture estimation from geophysics using machine learning

Geophysical methods can provide three-dimensional (3D), spatially continuous estimates of soil moisture. However, point-to-point comparisons of geophysical properties to measure soil moisture data are frequently unsatisfactory, resulting in geophysics being used for qualitative purposes only. This is because (1) geophysics requires models that relate geophysical signals to soil moisture, (2) geophysical methods have potential uncertainties resulting from smoothing and artifacts introduced from processing and inversion, and (3) results from multiple geophysical methods are not easily combined within a single soil moisture estimation framework. To investigate these potential limitations, an irrigation experiment was performed wherein soil moisture was monitored through time, and several surface geophysical datasets indirectly sensitive to soil moisture were collected before and after irrigation: ground penetrating radar, electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and frequency domain electromagnetics (FDEM). Data were exported in both raw and processed form, and then snapped to a common 3D grid to facilitate moisture prediction by standard calibration techniques, multivariate regression, and machine learning. A combination of inverted ERT data, raw FDEM, and inverted FDEM data was most informative for predicting soil moisture using a random regression forest model (one-thousand 60/40 training/test cross-validation folds produced root mean squared errors ranging from 0.025–0.046 cm 3 /cm 3 ). This cross-validated model was further supported by a separate evaluation using a test set from a physically separate portion of the study area. Machine learning was conducive to a semi-automated model-selection process that could be used for other sites and datasets to locally improve accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput validation of phase formability and simulation accuracy of Cantor alloys

High-throughput methods enable accelerated discovery of novel materials in complex systems such as high-entropy alloys, which exhibit intricate phase stability across vast compositional spaces. Computational approaches, including Density Functional Theory (DFT) and calculation of phase diagrams (CALPHAD), facilitate screening of phase formability as a function of composition and temperature. However, the integration of computational predictions with experimental validation remains challenging in high-throughput studies. In this work, we introduce a quantitative confidence metric to assess the agreement between predictions and experimental observations, providing a quantitative measure of the confidence of machine learning models trained on either DFT or CALPHAD input in accounting for experimental evidence. The experimental dataset was generated via high-throughput in-situ synchrotron X-ray diffraction on compositionally varied FeNiMnCr alloy libraries, heated from room temperature to ~1000 °C. Agreement between the observed and predicted phases was evaluated using either temperature-independent phase classification or a model that incorporates a temperature-dependent probability of phase formation. This integrated approach demonstrates where strong overall agreement between computation and experiment exists, while also identifying key discrepancies, particularly in FCC/BCC predictions at Mn-rich regions to inform future model refinement.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗