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At least 937 records · Page 52
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

From Ensemble Climate to Ensemble Impacts

Many climate-risk tools rely on ensemble mean projections or endpoint climate snapshots to characterize future hazards. Although convenient for communication, these representations remove the statistical, temporal, and physical information that real infrastructure systems respond to. Infrastructure degradation and failure arise from extremes, sequences, cumulative stress, compound hazards, and nonlinear fragility relationships, none of which survive ensemble averaging or temporal compression. Power-system failure statistics and cascading failure models further show that infrastructure risk is dominated by tail events and path-dependent dynamics rather than by mean conditions. This paper demonstrates why ensemble mean or endpoint-only climate representations are mathematically and physically inconsistent with engineering-grade risk analysis. We outline a model-resolved, time-series-based workflow that preserves extremes, variability, and sequencing by propagating each climate-model realization independently through hazard formation, exposure, fragility, and cascading failure mechanisms. Taking the ensemble of impacts—rather than the ensemble of climate—provides a defensible, physically coherent foundation for infrastructure resilience planning, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment decisions.

54 - ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES/GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing $f(R)$ gravity with scale dependent cosmic void velocity profiles

Here, we study the impact of cosmological scale modifications to general relativity on the dynamics of halos within voids by comparing N-body simulations incorporating Hu-Sawicki f(R) gravity, with |f R0 | = 10 -6 and 10 -5 , to those of Λ CDM. By examining the radial velocity statistics within voids classified based on their size and density-profile, as “rising” (R-type) or “shell” (S-type), we find that halo motions in small R-type voids, with effective radius <15 Mpc/h, reveal distinctive differences between f(R) and Λ CDM cosmologies. To understand this observed effect, we study the linear and nonlinear fifth forces, and develop an iterative algorithm to accurately solve the nonlinear fifth force equation. We use this to characterize the Chameleon screening mechanism in voids and contrast the behavior with that observed in gravitationally collapsed objects. The force analysis underscores how smaller R-type voids exhibit the highest ratios of fifth force to Newtonian force, which source distinguishable differences in the velocity profiles and thereby provide rich environments in which to constrain gravity.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

In this work we demonstrate how fracture statistics may be employed to track cell reliability through module fabrication steps. We were able to detect how cell cutting equipment could reduce cell fracture strain by 25 % as well as increase its variability. A smaller reduction was found to result from the ribbon soldering operation, and all cells measured were weaker when strained in an orientation perpendicular to the gridlines. Cell fracture measurements were found to be consistent with the number of cracked cells experienced in full sized modules exposed to mechanical loading. A structural mechanics model was created to elucidate how the requisite fracture strain is developed in a cell encapsulated within a PV module and demonstrates that this strain decreases more than 50 % from its center to edge when placed within the inner loading span of four-point flexure. The associated implications on the apparent cell strength is examined with an effective volume treatment.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗
DOE OSTI2025

PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative Final Technical Report (FTR)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. This project will leverage data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Please see our list of public reports at https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html. Objective 1: Support the global PV industry with scalable, robust data analysis tools that reduce the uncertainty of PV system performance and loss calculation. Objective 2: Reduce perceived risk arising from degradation rate, soiling loss, and system availability by publishing detailed statistics on U.S. fleet performance. Objective 3: Highlight factors leading to system underperformance including module type, climate, mounting configuration, etc. Objective 4: Enable continued high system performance in modern PV systems, as turnover and advances in technology bring new suppliers and high-efficiency modules into the market.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Employing Fracture Statistics to Track Cell Reliability Through Module Fabrication

In this work we demonstrate how fracture statistics may be employed to track cell reliability through module fabrication steps. We were able to detect how cell cutting equipment could reduce cell fracture strain by 25 % as well as increase its variability. A smaller reduction was found to result from the ribbon soldering operation, and all cells measured were weaker when strained in an orientation perpendicular to the gridlines. Cell fracture measurements were found to be consistent with the number of cracked cells experienced in full sized modules exposed to mechanical loading. A structural mechanics model was created to elucidate how the requisite fracture strain is developed in a cell encapsulated within a PV module and demonstrates that this strain decreases more than 50 % from its center to edge when placed within the inner loading span of four-point flexure. The associated implications on the apparent cell strength is examined with an effective volume treatment.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Development of Scalable Coastal and Offshore Macroalgal Farming

The US DOE/ARPA-E MARINER program funded a four-year project to determine an optimal way to grow kelps in large, nearshore and offshore arrays for the eventual purpose of biofuel production with the goal of keeping the cost below $\$$80 USD per dry metric ton of kelp. This project specifically looked at how Saccharina latissima can be grown in the Gulf of Alaska to reach that goal. There were three major aspects of the research: 1) optimizing nursery production and seeding lines for outplanting, 2) designing an economical, modular outplanting structure and 3) developing methods to efficiently harvest the product. Farm designs were based on catenary structures and the use of spreader bars with variable spacing of grow lines and line types. The spacing of the grow lines makes a difference in the yield. Grow line spacing of ≥1.5m showed about a 50% increase in kg/m. There was no statistical difference in the growth of Saccharina latissima whether in the middle or the outside of the array, but the line type and perhaps line thickness can make a difference in yield. Sagging caused by the weight of the mature fronds resulted in lower growth at depth. Various harvesting approaches for mature kelps were tested by collaborating farmers. One promising innovation is the use of large bags for holding the freshly harvested fronds. Although the weight of the fronds on the growlines causes the lines to sink, the bags packed with the harvested fronds float, allowing for easy loading to the transfer vessel. Another advance in harvesting is a specially built harvest vessel, the Harvest Buddy, allowing a more mechanized and faster way to harvest. A significant aspect of this project was the TTO/T2M. Several different outreach activities were performed by the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation and GreenWave. A techno-economic assessment (TEA) using our data has pointed to solutions to reach the $\$$80 goal. A second phase of this project involved the co-culture of two different species of kelps. Interest in farming kelps has grown beyond using kelp for food, feed or biofuels. There is considerable interest in generating biomass from seaweed for use in bioplastics and other products that would substitute for petroleum-derived products. For these uses to be viable, large amounts of biomass are needed. Very large kelp farms can be expensive to build and maintain, leading to the need to optimize the biomass per unit area. Although close spacing of growlines can lead to poor growth, a viable approach may be to grow two species of kelps together: one that hangs down and one that is buoyant, growing up. This system would increase the spacing in three dimensions. In Alaska, Saccharina latissima is commonly grown hanging down from longlines. One of the buoyant Alaskan kelps is Nereocystis luetkeana. Because there are commercial uses for wild-harvested Nereocystis in Alaska, we undertook a preliminary trial in Kodiak, Alaska that grew both Saccharina and Nereocystis in the same longline array. Closely spaced lines were seeded the first week of February 2023 and set at 3m below the surface. The arrays were harvested in late June 2023. Despite having 45% fewer grow-lines, the total yield of the Nereocystis on the combined arrays was statistically similar to the Nereocystis only arrays. Total yields were greatest on the combined arrays, followed by the Nereocystis only and Saccharina only arrays. These results may have significance for large scale macroalgal production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-Filament Imaging Mass Spectrometry Lipidomics in Arthrospira platensis

Elucidating intra-organismal biochemical and lipid organization in photosynthetic biological cell factories of filamentous cyanobacteria, i.e., Arthrospira platensis (Spirulina), is important to track physiological response mechanisms during growth. Little is known about the filaments' biochemical organization and cellular structure and no label-free imaging techniques exist that provide molecular mapping. We applied ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry (7T FT-ICR-MS) matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization (MALDI) imaging to immobilized Spirulina filaments to investigate the localization of lipids across distinct physiological regions. We optimized matrix selection and deposition methods with the goal of facilitating high spatial, and intra-filament, resolution using untargeted multivariate statistical spectral deconvolution across MS pixels. Our results demonstrate an improved two step application with an optimized procedure for intra-organismal lipid profiling to improve analyte sensitivity and achieve higher spatial resolution, whereby we evaluate three conventional matrices 2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid (DHB), a 9:1 ratio of DHB:superDHB (sDHB), 1,5- diaminonaphthalene (DAN) and a 50:50 mix of DHB:sDHB and compare delineation and pixel-based elucidation of intra-filament lipidomics. We identified a total of 1,626 features that could be putatively assigned a lipid-like formula based on database query and 46 unique features, with associated lipid assignments that were significantly distinct in their intra-filament location. MALDI- imaging MS with untargeted statistical spectral deconvolution was used to visualize intra-filament lipidomics organization in Spirulina filaments. Improvements in matrix deposition, including sequential sublimation and pneumatic spraying, increased signal abundance at high spatial resolution and allowed for identification of distinct lipid composition regions. Here in this work outlines a methodology that may be used for micro-ecological untargeted molecular phenotyping.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Feasibility of Algal Biochar, a Byproduct of Biofuel Production, as a Supplemental Cementitious Material

Algal biochar, as the solid residue of biofuel production from algal biomass, is reported to explore disposition options, aiming to lessen the liability or obstacles to biofuel production processes. However, landfills and open combustion lead to adverse environmental impacts. One way to add value to such wastes is to use them as admixtures in cementitious construction materials. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of algae-derived biochar as supplementary cementitious materials (SCM) at different water contents and mixture ratios. Algal biochar-cement composites were prepared with different algal biochar content as well as different water-to-cement (w/c) ratios, and the surface area, morphology, elemental, and mineralogical composition were characterized. To compensate for the high-water absorption of algal biochar, a small concentration of a superplasticizer was used since higher w/c ratios negatively impact strength. The mechanical performance of algal biochar-cement composites is compared with control composites using commercial silica fume as a typical commercial SCM. The findings suggest that algal biochar is a promising candidate to replace commercial SCM, like silica fume, since algal biochar-cement composites can reach comparable compressive strength and Young’s modulus to commercial pozzolan-cement materials with the same w/c ratio, though at later curing times, 33 days. Although the tensile strength of algal biochar-cement composites is statistically similar at 7 days, it is significantly lower at later curing times, and further investigation is required to improve this property. Algal biochar-based cement binders showed comparable embodied carbon to silica fume-based cement binders based on a cradle-to-gate lifecycle analysis. However, the ability of algal biochar to absorb large volumes of CO 2 over short periods of time, as measured in this study, makes this novel SCM an excellent alternative to reduce the embodied carbon of concrete structures cradle-to-grave at 1/10 of the cost. In conclusion, valorization of algae-derived solid waste provides great potential to reduce embodied carbon and brings credit to biofuel production and concrete-based construction.

algae-derived↗
DOE OSTI2022

Differentiable Preisach Modeling for Characterization and Optimization of Particle Accelerator Systems with Hysteresis

Future improvements in particle accelerator performance are predicated on increasingly accurate online modeling of accelerators. Hysteresis effects in magnetic, mechanical, and material components of accelerators are often neglected in online accelerator models used to inform control algorithms, even though reproducibility errors from systems exhibiting hysteresis are not negligible in high precision accelerators. Here, we combine the classical Preisach model of hysteresis with machine learning techniques to efficiently create nonparametric, high-fidelity models of arbitrary systems exhibiting hysteresis. We experimentally demonstrate how these methods can be used in situ, where a hysteresis model of an accelerator magnet is combined with a Bayesian statistical model of the beam response, allowing characterization of magnetic hysteresis solely from beam-based measurements. Finally, we explore how using these joint hysteresis-Bayesian statistical models allows us to overcome optimization performance limitations that arise when hysteresis effects are ignored.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Yet Another Sunshine Mystery: Unexpected Asymmetry in GeV Emission from the Solar Disk

The Sun is one of the most luminous γ-ray sources in the sky and continues to challenge our understanding of its high-energy emission mechanisms. This study provides an in-depth investigation of the solar disk γ-ray emission, using data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope spanning 2008 August to 2022 January. We focus on γ-ray events with energies exceeding 5 GeV, originating from 0°5 angular aperture centered on the Sun, and implement stringent time cuts to minimize potential sample contaminants. We use a helioprojection method to resolve the γ-ray events relative to the solar rotation axes and combine statistical tests to investigate the distribution of events over the solar disk. We found that integrating observations over large time windows may overlook relevant asymmetrical features, which we reveal in this work through a refined time-dependent morphological analysis. We describe significant anisotropic trends and confirm compelling evidence of energy-dependent asymmetry in the solar disk γ-ray emission. Intriguingly, the asymmetric signature coincides with the Sun's polar field flip during the cycle 24 solar maximum, around 2014 June. Our findings suggest that the Sun's magnetic configuration plays a significant role in shaping the resulting γ-ray signature, highlighting a potential link between the observed anisotropies, solar cycle, and the solar magnetic fields. These insights pose substantial challenges to established emission models, prompting fresh perspectives on high-energy solar astrophysics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

EMISSA (Exploring Millimeter Indicators of Solar-Stellar Activity): I. The initial millimeter–centimeter main-sequence star sample

Due to their wide wavelength coverage across the millimeter to centimeter (mm–cm) range and their increased sensitivity, modern interferometric arrays facilitate observations of the thermal and non-thermal radiation that is emitted from different layers in the outer atmospheres of stars. We study the spectral energy distribution (S obs (ν)) of main-sequence stars based on archival observations in the mm–cm range with the aim to study their atmospheric stratification as a function of stellar type. The main-sequence stars with significant detection in mm bands were identified in the ALMA Science Archive. These data were then complemented with spectral flux data in the extreme ultraviolet to cm range as compiled from various catalogues and observatory archives. We compared the resultant S obs (ν) of each star with a photospheric emission model (S mod (ν)) calculated with the PHOENIX code. The departures of S obs (ν) from S mod (ν) were quantified in terms of a spectral flux excess parameter (ΔS/S mod ) and studied as a function of stellar type. The initial sample consists of 12 main-sequence stars across a broad range of spectral types from A1 to M3.5 and the Sun-as-a-star as reference. The stars with T eff = 3000–7000 K (F–M type) showed a systematically higher S obs (ν) than S mod (ν) in the mm–cm range. Their ΔS/S mod exhibits a monotonic rise with decreasing frequency. The steepness of this rise is higher for cooler stars in the T eff = 3000–7000 K range, although the single fully convective star (T eff ~ 3000 K) in the sample deviates from this trend. Meanwhile, Sobs(ν) of the A-type stars agrees with S mod (ν) within errors. The systematically high ΔS/S mod in F–M stars indicates hotter upper atmospheric layers, that is, a chromosphere and corona in these stars, like for the Sun. The mm–cm ΔS/S mod spectrum offers a way to estimate the efficiency of the heating mechanisms across various outer atmospheric layers in main-sequence stars, and thereby to understand their structure and activity. We emphasise the need for dedicated surveys of main-sequence stars in the mm–cm range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The quenching of galaxies, bulges, and disks since cosmic noon

Here, we present an analysis of the quenching of star formation in galaxies, bulges, and disks throughout the bulk of cosmic history, from z = 2 – 0. We utilise observations from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory survey at low redshifts. We complement these data with observations from the Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey at high redshifts. Additionally, we compare the observations to detailed predictions from the LGalaxies semi-analytic model. To analyse the data, we developed a machine learning approach utilising a Random Forest classifier. We first demonstrate that this technique is extremely effective at extracting causal insight from highly complex and inter-correlated model data, before applying it to various observational surveys. Our primary observational results are as follows: at all redshifts studied in this work, we find bulge mass to be the most predictive parameter of quenching, out of the photometric parameter set (incorporating bulge mass, disk mass, total stellar mass, and B/T structure). Moreover, we also find bulge mass to be the most predictive parameter of quenching in both bulge and disk structures, treated separately. Hence, intrinsic galaxy quenching must be due to a stable mechanism operating over cosmic time, and the same quenching mechanism must be effective in both bulge and disk regions. Despite the success of bulge mass in predicting quenching, we find that central velocity dispersion is even more predictive (when available in spectroscopic data sets). In comparison to the LGalaxies model, we find that all of these observational results may be consistently explained through quenching via preventative ‘radio-mode’ active galactic nucleus feedback. Furthermore, many alternative quenching mechanisms (including virial shocks, supernova feedback, and morphological stabilisation) are found to be inconsistent with our observational results and those from the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beyond the Condon limit: Condensed phase optical spectra from atomistic simulations

While dark transitions made bright by molecular motions determine the optoelectronic properties of many materials, simulating such non-Condon effects in condensed phase spectroscopy remains a fundamental challenge. We derive a Gaussian theory to predict and analyze condensed phase optical spectra beyond the Condon limit. Our theory introduces novel quantities that encode how nuclear motions modulate the energy gap and transition dipole of electronic transitions in the form of spectral densities. By formulating the theory through a statistical framework of thermal averages and fluctuations, we circumvent the limitations of widely used microscopically harmonic theories, allowing us to tackle systems with generally anharmonic atomistic interactions and non-Condon fluctuations of arbitrary strength. We show how to calculate these spectral densities using first-principles simulations, capturing realistic molecular interactions and incorporating finite-temperature, disorder, and dynamical effects. Our theory accurately predicts the spectra of systems known to exhibit strong non-Condon effects (phenolate in various solvents) and reveals distinct mechanisms for electronic peak splitting: timescale separation of modes that tune non-Condon effects and spectral interference from correlated energy gap and transition dipole fluctuations. We further introduce analysis tools to identify how intramolecular vibrations, solute–solvent interactions, and environmental polarization effects impact dark transitions. Moreover, we prove an upper bound on the strength of cross correlated energy gap and transition dipole fluctuations, thereby elucidating a simple condition that a system must follow for our theory to accurately predict its spectrum.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of quantum advantage experiments using random circuit sampling

Random circuit sampling, the task of sampling bit strings from a random unitary operator, has been implemented to demonstrate quantum advantage on the Sycamore quantum processor with 53 qubits and on the Zuchongzhi quantum processor with 56 and 61 qubits. Recently, it was claimed that classical computers using tensor network simulation could catch on to current noisy quantum processors for random circuit sampling. While the linear cross-entropy benchmark fidelity was used to certify all these claims, it may not capture statistical properties of outputs in detail. Here, we compare the bit strings sampled from classical computers using tensor network simulation by Pan et al. [F. Pan, K. Chen, and P. Zhang, Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 090502 (2022)] and by Kalachev et al. [G. Kalachev, P. Panteleev, P. Zhou, and M.-H. Yung, arXiv:2112.15083] with the bit strings from the Sycamore quantum processor. It is shown that all of Kalachev et al.'s samples passed the NIST random number tests. The heat maps of bit strings show that Pan et al.'s and Kalachev et al.'s samples are quite different from the Sycamore or Zuchongzhi samples. The analysis with the Marchenko-Pastur distribution and the Wasssertein distances demonstrates that Kalachev et al.'s samples are statistically closer to the Sycamore samples than Pan et al.'s while the three datasets have similar values for the linear cross-entropy fidelity. In conclusion, our finding implies that further study is needed to certify or beat the claims of quantum advantage using random circuit sampling.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty-Aware, Structure-Preserving Machine Learning Approach for Domain Shift Detection From Nonlinear Dynamic Responses of Structural Systems

Complex structural systems deployed for aerospace, civil, or mechanical applications must operate reliably under varying operational conditions. Structural health monitoring (SHM) systems help ensure the reliability of these systems by providing continuous monitoring of the state of the structure. SHM relies on synthesizing measured data with a predictive model to make informed decisions about structural states. However, these models—which may be thought of as a form of a digital twin—need to be updated continuously as structural changes (e.g., due to damage) arise. We propose an uncertainty-aware machine learning model that enforces distance preservation of the original input state space and then encodes a distance-aware mechanism via a Gaussian process (GP) kernel. The proposed approach leverages the spectral-normalized neural GP algorithm to combine the flexibility of neural networks with the advantages of GP, subjected to structure-preserving constraints, to produce an uncertainty-aware model. This model is used to detect domain shift due to structural changes that cannot be observed directly because they may be spatially isolated (e.g., inside a joint or localized damage). This work leverages detection theory to detect domain shift systematically given statistical features of the prediction variance produced by the model. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a nonlinear structure being subjected to damage conditions. In conclusion, it is shown that the proposed approach is able to rely on distances of the transformed input state space to predict increased variance in shifted domains while being robust to normative changes.

Algorithms↗
DOE OSTI2026

Screening and qualification methodology for SiC end plug processing methods

Deployment of SiC-ceramic-based fuel cladding for light water reactors requires a hermetic end plug–to–cladding joint that can withstand neutron irradiation during normal operation and maintain integrity during design-basis accidents. Reactor experiments have shown that some SiC composite tubes with SiC end plugs can retain hermeticity after irradiation. However, achieving consistent joint performance under irradiation remains a key challenge. Resolving this issue is essential to enable integral irradiation testing and to demonstrate fuel integrity under commercial-reactor irradiation conditions. This report aims to: (1) provide guidance for designing radiation-tolerant end plug joints for SiC cladding; (2) demonstrate experimental methods to detect processing defects that are unstable under neutron irradiation at light-water-reactor-relevant temperatures and doses; and (3) outline a step-by-step approach for designing and conducting reactor experiments to screen joining methods. The resulting data will be used to improve joint processing and to define critical defect types and sizes that must be detected and eliminated through non-destructive evaluation for quality assurance. Based on prior irradiation experiments at the High Flux Isotope Reactor, differential swelling among the cladding, bonding layer, and end plug was identified as an underlying mechanism for irradiation-induced joint degradation. Accordingly, this effect must be considered in the design of radiation-tolerant joining techniques. In this work, miniature SiC end plug joint specimens irradiated during the previous project were analyzed using X-ray computed tomography to characterize the joint microstructure. Digital volume correlation of the tomography data quantified radiation-induced microstructural changes and enabled evaluation of defect-related risks. Finally, ongoing neutron irradiation efforts using larger specimen volumes are presented. These efforts aim to statistically assess joint performance and to build a microstructure–performance (e.g., leak-tightness) dataset to inform processing improvements and quality control.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Nucleon Structure via Deep Electroproduction Processes

Understanding the internal structure of the nucleon is a fundamental goal of modern physics, which aims at a comprehensive framework describing the internal dynamics of quarks and gluons. Among other structure functions, Generalized Parton Distributions (GPDs) offer a powerful framework for describing the nucleon dynamics by correlating the longitudinal momentum and the transverse position of its internal partons. Such a correlation provides a three-dimensional picture of the nucleon and enables access to fundamental properties, including the internal pressure distributions and the parton’s angular momentum contribution to the nucleon's total spin, thereby playing a central role in resolving the nucleon spin puzzle. At the Thomas Jefferson National Facility (JLab), polarized electron beam experiments allow for probing GPDs through the measurement of hard exclusive processes. Among the cleanest experimental channels, we find the electro-production of a real photon through the Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering (DVCS) mechanism. The first data-taking period of the CLAS12 program, taking place in 2018, allowed for unique DVCS Beam Spin Asymmetry (BSA) measurements in the phase space covered by a 10.6 GeV polarized electron beam impinging on an unpolarized liquid hydrogen target. Although detecting all final-state particles ensures exclusivity of the process, conservation laws indicate that it is not mandatory. I adopt an approach omitting the direct detection of the recoil proton, providing a simplified yet effective event selection strategy that boosts statistics and gives access to a larger phase space sensitive to the underlying GPD dynamics through BSA and cross section measurements. The Double DVCS (DDVCS) process promises a dedicated mapping of GPDs. Contributing to the electro-production of a lepton pair cross-section, the DDVCS reaction extends DVCS by allowing the final-state photon to be virtual, enriching the kinematic phase space and providing unique access to the internal correlations encoded by GPDs. A feasibility study is conducted to assess the potential of future DDVCS measurements at Jefferson Lab and the future Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). While Jefferson Lab will provide DDVCS measurements in the valence region through the SoLID$\mu$ and $\mu$CLAS12 experimental projects, in the long term, the EIC will provide complementary measurements in the sea region, both accessing unprecedented information about GPDs in a phase space region otherwise inaccessible. Taken together, these investigations demonstrate both the current capabilities and future opportunities for probing GPDs through exclusive processes. The experimental analysis of DVCS at CLAS12 provides precise measurements within an established framework, while the phenomenological study of DDVCS opens the door to richer and more comprehensive explorations with future detectors and facilities.

Alvarado, Juan [Université Paris-Saclay: Gif-sur-Y↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized approximate control variate framework for multifidelity uncertainty quantification

We describe and analyze a variance reduction approach for Monte Carlo (MC) sampling that accelerates the estimation of statistics of computationally expensive simulation models using an ensemble of models with lower cost. These lower cost models — which are typically lower fidelity with unknown statistics — are used to reduce the variance in statistical estimators relative to a MC estimator with equivalent cost. We derive the conditions under which our proposed approximate control variate framework recovers existing multifidelity variance reduction schemes as special cases. We demonstrate that existing recursive/nested strategies are suboptimal because they use the additional low-fidelity models only to efficiently estimate the unknown mean of the first low-fidelity model. As a result, they cannot achieve variance reduction beyond that of a control variate estimator that uses a single low-fidelity model with known mean. However, there often exists about an order-of-magnitude gap between the maximum achievable variance reduction using all low-fidelity models and that achieved by a single low-fidelity model with known mean. We show that our proposed approach can exploit this gap to achieve greater variance reduction by using non-recursive sampling schemes. The proposed strategy reduces the total cost of accurately estimating statistics, especially in cases where only low-fidelity simulation models are accessible for additional evaluations. Several analytic examples and an example with a hyperbolic PDE describing elastic wave propagation in heterogeneous media are used to illustrate the main features of the methodology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗