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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Numerical Simulations of Noisy Variational Quantum Eigensolver Ansatz Circuits

This is a case study of the variational quantum eigensolver (VQE) method using numerical simulations to test the influence of noise on the accuracy of the underlying circuit ansatz. We investigate a computational chemistry application of VQE to calculate the electronic ground state and its energy for Sodium Hydride (NaH), a prototypical two-electron problem. Using a one-parameter ansatz derived from unitary coupled cluster (UCC) theory, we simulate the effects of noise on the energy expectation value and variance with respect to the ansatz parameter. These numerical simulations provide insights into the accuracy of the prepared quantum state and the efficiency of the classical optimizer that iteratively refines the ansatz. We conduct a comparative study between analytical results derived for the UCC ansatz in the absence of noise and the noisy numerical simulation results obtained using an isotropic depolarizing noise model for each gate. We also compare the relative increase in noise on logically equivalent UCC ansatz circuits generated by randomized compiling. Notably, we observe that the intrinsic variance in the energy due to the simplicity of the ansatz itself compares with the noise induced by the bare circuit.

Gowrishankar, Meenambika↗
DOE OSTI2023

DL-TODA: A Deep Learning Tool for Omics Data Analysis

Metagenomics is a technique for genome-wide profiling of microbiomes; this technique generates billions of DNA sequences called reads. Given the multiplication of metagenomic projects, computational tools are necessary to enable the efficient and accurate classification of metagenomic reads without needing to construct a reference database. The program DL-TODA presented here aims to classify metagenomic reads using a deep learning model trained on over 3000 bacterial species. A convolutional neural network architecture originally designed for computer vision was applied for the modeling of species-specific features. Using synthetic testing data simulated with 2454 genomes from 639 species, DL-TODA was shown to classify nearly 75% of the reads with high confidence. The classification accuracy of DL-TODA was over 0.98 at taxonomic ranks above the genus level, making it comparable with Kraken2 and Centrifuge, two state-of-the-art taxonomic classification tools. DL-TODA also achieved an accuracy of 0.97 at the species level, which is higher than 0.93 by Kraken2 and 0.85 by Centrifuge on the same test set. Application of DL-TODA to the human oral and cropland soil metagenomes further demonstrated its use in analyzing microbiomes from diverse environments. Compared to Centrifuge and Kraken2, DL-TODA predicted distinct relative abundance rankings and is less biased toward a single taxon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the U.S. Western Electric Interconnection to Understand the Consequences of Hydrometeorological Extremes and Options for Risk Mitigation

Electricity grid operators around the world face a dual challenge; withstanding increasingly severe weather and the longer term impacts of climate change, while simultaneously decarbonizing. Extreme weather events such as heat waves and droughts are rising in both severity and frequency, which is threatening the reliability of electricity grids through increased demand, generation capacity losses, and equipment failures. Consequently, incorporating hydrometeorological stressors into computational power systems analysis is becoming an even more critical tool in long term planning and short term operations. However, there is a general lack of open-source customizable grid simulation software capable of exhaustively stress testing the grid under hydrometeorological uncertainty, and/or examining potential risk mitigation pathways. A related, persistent challenge for power system modelers is striking an appropriate balance between model fidelity (e.g. spatial scale and time resolution) and computational tractability (wall clock run-time). In this study, we are proposing a solution to this problem with open-source software that allows users to seamlessly customize the scale and track the accuracy of grid operations models. Our approach allows users to search over numerous model parameters (network topology, mathematical formulation, economic hurdle rates, and transmission line scaling) to identify model instantiations that accommodate experimental design. Further, we use this approach to demonstrate the importance of including extreme weather events in model validation and model selection. Focusing on the occurrence of heatwaves and droughts in the U.S. Western Interconnection, we examine role of extreme events in balancing tradeoffs between model fidelity and run-time at the model design stage.

Economics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Approaches for Relative Binding Free Energy Predictions

Alchemical relative binding free energy calculations have recently found important applications in drug optimization. A series of congeneric compounds are generated from a preidentified lead compound, and their relative binding affinities to a protein are assessed in order to optimize candidate drugs. While methods based on equilibrium thermodynamics have been extensively studied, an approach based on nonequilibrium methods has recently been reported together with claims of its superiority. However, these claims pay insufficient attention to the basis and reliability of both methods. Here we report a comparative study of the two approaches across a large data set, comprising more than 500 ligand transformations spanning in excess of 300 ligands binding to a set of 14 diverse protein targets. Ensemble methods are essential to quantify the uncertainty in these calculations, not only for the reasons already established in the equilibrium approach but also to ensure that the nonequilibrium calculations reside within their domain of validity. If and only if ensemble methods are applied, we find that the nonequilibrium method can achieve accuracy and precision comparable to those of the equilibrium approach. Compared to the equilibrium method, the nonequilibrium approach can reduce computational costs but introduces higher computational complexity and longer wall clock times. There are, however, cases where the standard length of a nonequilibrium transition is not sufficient, necessitating a complete rerun of the entire set of transitions. This significantly increases the computational cost and proves to be highly inconvenient during large-scale applications. Our findings provide a key set of recommendations that should be adopted for the reliable implementation of nonequilibrium approaches to relative binding free energy calculations in ligand-protein systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Machine learning-based prediction of enzyme substrate scope: Application to bacterial nitrilases

Predicting the range of substrates accepted by an enzyme from its amino acid sequence is challenging. Although sequenc- and structure-based annotation approaches are often accurate for predicting broad categories of substrate specificity, they generally cannot predict which specific molecules will be accepted as substrates for a given enzyme, particularly within a class of closely related molecules. Combining targeted experimental activity data with structural modeling, ligand docking, and physicochemical properties of proteins and ligands with various machine learning models provides complementary information that can lead to accurate predictions of substrate scope for related enzymes. Here we describe such an approach that can predict the substrate scope of bacterial nitrilases, which catalyze the hydrolysis of nitrile compounds to the corresponding carboxylic acids and ammonia. Each of the four machine learning models (logistic regression, random forest, gradient-boosted decision trees, and support vector machines) performed similarly (average ROC = 0.9, average accuracy = ~82%) for predicting substrate scope for this dataset, although random forest offers some advantages. Finally, this approach is intended to be highly modular with respect to physicochemical property calculations and software used for structural modeling and docking.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Physics-based hybrid machine learning for critical heat flux prediction with uncertainty quantification

Critical heat flux (CHF) is a key quantity in nuclear system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer, safety margins, and reactor performance. This study develops and validates an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models to predict CHF in cases of dryout. The Biasi and Bowring empirical correlations were paired with three ML uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques: deep neural network (DNN) ensembles, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs). A pure ML model without a base model was evaluated for comparison. Model performance was assessed under plentiful (7,350 points) and limited (9 points) training data scenarios using parity, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. Results show that the Biasi hybrid DNN ensemble achieved the best overall performance, with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846%, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. The BNN-based hybrids showed slightly higher error (2.14%) but superior uncertainty calibration. DGP models underperformed, with over 6% error and poor uncertainty calibration. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity. These findings indicate that hybrid modeling significantly improves predictive accuracy, interpretability, and resilience to data scarcity. The integration of uncertainty awareness provides actionable confidence in CHF predictions, which is vital for safety-critical decisions in nuclear applications. This hybrid approach offers a viable pathway for deploying ML models in reactor analysis tools while preserving domain knowledge and physical consistency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗
DOE OSTI2021

DART-PFLOTRAN: An ensemble-based data assimilation system for estimating subsurface flow and transport model parameters

Ensemble-based Data Assimilation (EDA), based on the Monte Carlo approach, has been effectively applied to estimate model parameters through inverse modeling in subsurface flow and transport problems. However, implementation of EDA approach involves a complicated workflow that include setting up and executing ensemble forward model simulations, processing observations and model simulation results for parameter updates, and repeat for sequential or iterative EDA. To facilitate the management of such workflow and lower the barriers for adopting EDA-based parameter estimation in subsurface science, we develop a generic software frame-work linking the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) with a massively parallel subsurface FLOw and TRANsport code PFLOTRAN. The new DART-PFLOTRAN leverages both the core data assimilation engines in DART and the computational power afforded by PFLOTRAN. In addition to the standard smoother and filtering options, DART-PFLOTRAN enables an iterative EDA workflow based on the Ensemble Smoother for Multiple Data Assimilation method (ES-MDA) to improve estimation accuracy for nonlinear forward problems. Here, we verify the implementation of ES-MDA in DART-PFLOTRAN using two synthetic cases designed to estimate static permeability and dynamic exchange fluxes across the riverbed, respectively, from continuous temperature measurements made across a depth profile. One-dimensional hydro-thermal simulations are performed in both cases to relate temperature responses with the parameters of interest. In the case of estimating dynamic parameters, we demonstrate the flexibility of DART-PFLOTRAN in automating sequential ES-MDA workflow, which will significantly reduce the time researchers spend on managing complex workflows in similar applications. Both studies yield accurate estimations of the parameters compared to their synthetic truth, while ES-MDA leads to more accurate estimation when a high level of nonlinearity exist between observed responses and unknown parameters. With a code base in Python and Fortran, DART-PFLOTRAN paves the way for applications in large-scale subsurface inverse modeling by automating the complex workflow of sequential ES-MDA that can be executed on various computing platforms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Towards Improving luminosity using optics tuning and data-driven methods

The results of Run 24 experiments at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) for improving luminosity using optics tuning are presented in this study. In the first experiment, MADx matching was used to output magnet strengths corresponding to specific s star movements around Interaction Region 8 (IR8). The corresponding Zero Degree Calorimeter (ZDC) signal was measured in place of luminosity, and Bayesian Optimization aids search of optimal movements. It was found that values retrieved from matching were inaccurate, resulting in negative feedback loops. The second experiment focused on calculating accurate s star movements. The matching method was replaced with a linear sensitivity matrix, directly relating optics to power supply, and its null space was used to fit constraints such as hysteresis effects. At the experiment, beam losses were observed at collimators around boundary of IR8, which were fixed for the third experiment. Dynamic mode decomposition was also introduced to improve quality of turn-by-turn (TBT) data as well as accuracy and consistency of optics measurements at IR8. These improvements will be tested in the experiment of next RHIC run for luminosity optimization.

Accelerator Physics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geant4 Material Definition

In Geant4, materials are defined using elements (G4Element) and isotopes (G4Isotope), supporting both single-element compositions and multi-element molecules or mixtures (by mass fraction). Each material is characterized by a mandatory density condition and optional parameters, such as state, temperature, and pressure. To simplify material definition and ensure accuracy, the G4NistManager is recommended for retrieving elements and materials from the NIST Material Database. These features make material specification in Geant4 flexible, efficient and consistent for describing complex detector geometry descriptions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transformational Opacity Platforms on the Z Facility: A Design Study

The goal of this one-year LDRD is to study novel experimental approaches to provide benchmark spectral opacity measurements at the most extreme conditions beyond existing measurements (i.e. 2x temperature, ~5x density). These conditions correspond to those at half the solar radius and would provide a unique and novel test for stellar physics. These conditions are also relevant to advance stockpile stewardship research. The basic idea is to embed a sample inside the z-pinch dynamic hohlraum on the Z facility and obtain its opacity from either 1) its self-emission or 2) its absorption from using a capsule backlighter. This study evaluates the feasibility, limitations to these two approaches from a design approach. We found that emission-based perspective gives, at best, an opacity accuracy of about 20% for the current studied pinch conditions due to the limit of LTE approximation and radiation transport effects. The capsule-backlighter-based approach overcomes this limitation although some specific design questions remain to be answered. Promising designs are proposed for follow-on Z experiments. Future designs would help maintain Z relevancy in relation to ignition-enabled platforms at NIF.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of event position reconstruction based on diffusion in the NEXT-white detector

Noble element time projection chambers are a leading technology for rare event detection in physics, such as for dark matter and neutrinoless double beta decay searches. Time projection chambers typically assign event position in the drift direction using the relative timing of prompt scintillation and delayed charge collection signals, allowing for reconstruction of an absolute position in the drift direction. In this paper, alternate methods for assigning event drift dis tance via quantification of electron diffusion in a pure high pressure xenon gas time projection chamber are explored. Data from the NEXT-White detector demonstrate the ability to achieve good position assignment accuracy for both high and low-energy events. Using point-like energy deposits from 83m Kr calibration electron captures (E ~ 45 keV), the position of origin of low-energy events is determined to 2 cm precision with bias < 1 mm. A convolutional neural network approach is then used to quantify diffusion for longer tracks (E ≥ 1.5 MeV), from radiogenic electrons, yielding a precision of 3 cm on the event barycenter. The precision achieved with these methods indicates the feasibility energy calibrations of better than 1% FWHM at Q ββ in pure xenon, as well as the potential for event fiducialization in large future detectors using an alternate method that does not rely on primary scintillation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data‐driven variational method for discrepancy modeling: Dynamics with small‐strain nonlinear elasticity and viscoelasticity

Abstract The effective inclusion of a priori knowledge when embedding known data in physics‐based models of dynamical systems can ensure that the reconstructed model respects physical principles, while simultaneously improving the accuracy of the solution in the previously unseen regions of state space. This paper presents a physics‐constrained data‐driven discrepancy modeling method that variationally embeds known data in the modeling framework. The hierarchical structure of the method yields fine scale variational equations that facilitate the derivation of residuals which are comprised of the first‐principles theory and sensor‐based data from the dynamical system. The embedding of the sensor data via residual terms leads to discrepancy‐informed closure models that yield a method which is driven not only by boundary and initial conditions, but also by measurements that are taken at only a few observation points in the target system. Specifically, the data‐embedding term serves as residual‐based least‐squares loss function, thus retaining variational consistency. Another important relation arises from the interpretation of the stabilization tensor as a kernel function, thereby incorporating a priori knowledge of the problem and adding computational intelligence to the modeling framework. Numerical test cases show that when known data is taken into account, the data driven variational (DDV) method can correctly predict the system response in the presence of several types of discrepancies. Specifically, the damped solution and correct energy time histories are recovered by including known data in the undamped situation. Morlet wavelet analyses reveal that the surrogate problem with embedded data recovers the fundamental frequency band of the target system. The enhanced stability and accuracy of the DDV method is manifested via reconstructed displacement and velocity fields that yield time histories of strain and kinetic energies which match the target systems. The proposed DDV method also serves as a procedure for restoring eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a deficient dynamical system when known data is taken into account, as shown in the numerical test cases presented here.

Masud, Arif↗
DOE OSTI2024

How Does HF-DFT Achieve Chemical Accuracy for Water Clusters?

Bolstered by recent calculations of exact functional-driven errors (FEs) and density-driven errors (DEs) of semilocal density functionals in the water dimer binding energy , we investigate approximate FEs and DEs in neutral water clusters containing up to 20 monomers, charged water clusters, and alkali- and halide-water clusters. Our proxy for the exact density is r 2 SCAN 50, a 50% global hybrid of exact exchange with r 2 SCAN, which may be less correct than r 2 SCAN for the compact water monomer but importantly more correct for long-range electron transfers in the noncompact water clusters. We show that SCAN makes substantially larger FEs for neutral water clusters than r 2 SCAN, while both make essentially the same DEs. Unlike the case for barrier heights, these FEs are small in a relative sense and become large in an absolute sense only due to an increase in cluster size. SCAN@HF, short for SCAN evaluated on the Hartree–Fock (HF) density, produces a cancellation of errors that makes it chemically accurate for predicting the absolute binding energies of water clusters. Likewise, adding a long-range dispersion correction to r 2 SCAN@HF, as in the composite method HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4, makes its FE more negative than in r 2 SCAN@HF, permitting a near-perfect cancellation of FE and DE. r 2 SCAN by itself (and even more so, r 2 SCAN evaluated on the r 2 SCAN 50 density), is almost perfect for the energy differences between water hexamers, and thus probably also for liquid water away from the boiling point. Thus, the accuracy of composite methods like SCAN@HF and HF-r 2 SCAN-DC4 is not due to the HF density being closer to the exact density, but to a compensation of errors from its greater degree of localization. We also give an argument for the approximate reliability of this unconventional error cancellation for diverse molecular properties. Lastly, we confirm this unconventional error cancellation for the SCAN description of the water trimer via Kohn–Sham inversion of the CCSD(T) density.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic implications and cost of forecasting errors in solar PV power production using optimized deep learning models

Accurate solar Photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting is important for enhancing both the performance and economic feasibility of PV systems. This study evaluates several deep learning models, including Dense Neural Networks (DNN), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), and a hybrid LSTMCNN model, for predicting PV power production one day in advance. Prior to optimization, the models exhibited relatively high errors, with the best model (DNN) achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 31.13 kW and a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) of 62.15 %. After employing Bayesian optimization, the LSTM-CNN model demonstrated the best performance, with the RMSE reduced to 9.79 kW and R 2 improved to 97.62 %, showcasing significant enhancement in predictive accuracy. Here, the economic evaluation considered three cases: rewards for underestimation (0.08 USD/kWh), no rewards, and penalties for both over-and underestimation (120 % of the utility tariff). In the rewards scenario, the LSTM-CNN model reduced the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by 4 %, while in the penalty scenario, a backup diesel generator would have increased the LCOE by 49 %. Additionally, the LSTM-CNN model minimized financial losses, achieving the lowest penalties and maximizing net cash flow compared to other models, demonstrating its overall technical and economic superiority.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2022

SAM-ML: Integrating data-driven closure with nuclear system code SAM for improved modeling capability

Advanced reactors often involve complicated thermal-fluid (T-F) phenomena. Modeling such phenomena with the traditional one-dimensional (1-D) system code is a challenging task. The System Analysis Module (SAM), a modern nuclear system code, has developed a coarse mesh multi-dimensional (multi-D) flow model to capture the spatial effect of T-F phenomena in advanced reactors. As a coarse mesh solver, constitutive relations are required for SAM's multi-D model for unresolved fine-scale physics, such as turbulence. Here this work presents a novel approach that integrates neural networks as data-driven closure for SAM's multi-D flow model. The data-driven closure is trained with fine-resolution data to ensure its accuracy while maintaining a coarse mesh setup to ensure its efficiency and consistency with SAM. We demonstrate the applicability of this SAM-ML capability in an open volume thermal stratification problem, where a neural network model serves as the eddy viscosity closure. A customized interface between the neural network and SAM is developed to ensure flexible and efficient data exchange. The SAM-ML results demonstrate superior performance compared to SAM's built-in zero-equation eddy viscosity closure. The case study shows that although the generalization capability of the data-driven closure still needs to be improved for different transient case or different geometric setup, SAM -ML demonstrates good potential for challenging simulation problems with improved accuracy and computational efficiency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combustion chemistry in the twenty-first century: Developing theory-informed chemical kinetics models

Over the past 20 to 25 years theoretical chemistry (particularly theoretical chemical kinetics) has played an increasingly important role in developing chemical kinetics models for combustion. Theoretical methods of obtaining rate parameters are now competitive in accuracy with experiment, particularly for small molecules. Moreover, theoretical methods can deal with conditions that experiments frequently cannot. In addition to increased accuracy, theory has rejuvenated methods and discovered phenomena that were completely unappreciated, or at least underappreciated, in the 20th century. Our primary interest here is in molecular-level issues, i.e. in calculating rate and transport parameters. However, dealing with kinetics models that involve thousands of reactions and hundreds of species is important for practical applications and is relatively new to the 21st century. Theory, in a general sense, and theoretical methods development have a role to play here too. We discuss in this review all these topics in some detail with an emphasis on issues and methods that have emerged in the last 20 years or so. Even so, our review is selective, rather than comprehensive, out of necessity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hidden deep in the halo: selection of a reduced proper motion halo catalogue and mining retrograde streams in the velocity space

ABSTRACT The Milky Way halo is one of the few galactic haloes that provides a unique insight into galaxy formation by resolved stellar populations. Here, we present a catalogue of ∼47 million halo stars selected independent of parallax and line-of-sight velocities, using a combination of Gaia DR3 proper motion and photometry by means of their reduced proper motion. We select high tangential velocity (halo) main sequence stars and fit distances to them using their simple colour-absolute-magnitude relation. This sample reaches out to ∼21 kpc with a median distance of 6.6 kpc thereby probing much further out than would be possible using reliable Gaia parallaxes. The typical uncertainty in their distances is $0.57_{-0.26}^{+0.56}$ kpc. Using the colour range 0.45 < (G0 − GRP, 0) < 0.715, where the main sequence is narrower, gives an even better accuracy down to $0.39_{-0.12}^{+0.18}$ kpc in distance. The median velocity uncertainty for stars within this colour range is 15.5 km s−1. The distribution of these sources in the sky, together with their tangential component velocities, are very well-suited to study retrograde substructures. We explore the selection of two complex retrograde streams: GD-1 and Jhelum. For these streams, we resolve the gaps, wiggles and density breaks reported in the literature more clearly. We also illustrate the effect of the kinematic selection bias towards high proper motion stars and incompleteness at larger distances due to Gaia’s scanning law. These examples showcase how the full RPM catalogue made available here can help us paint a more detailed picture of the build-up of the Milky Way halo.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗