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NASA NTRS2014

NMME Monthly / Seasonal Forecasts for NASA SERVIR Applications Science

This work details use of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) experimental forecasts as drivers for Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in the NASA / USAID initiative, SERVIR (a Spanish acronym meaning "to serve"). SERVIR integrates satellite observations, ground-based data and forecast models to monitor and forecast environmental changes and to improve response to natural disasters. Through the use of DSSs whose "front ends" are physically based models, the SERVIR activity provides a natural testbed to determine the extent to which NMME monthly to seasonal projections enable scientists, educators, project managers and policy implementers in developing countries to better use probabilistic outlooks of seasonal hydrologic anomalies in assessing agricultural / food security impacts, water availability, and risk to societal infrastructure. The multi-model NMME framework provides a "best practices" approach to probabilistic forecasting. The NMME forecasts are generated at resolution more coarse than that required to support DSS models; downscaling in both space and time is necessary. The methodology adopted here applied model output statistics where we use NMME ensemble monthly projections of sea-surface temperature (SST) and precipitation from 30 years of hindcasts with observations of precipitation and temperature for target regions. Since raw model forecasts are well-known to have structural biases, a cross-validated multivariate regression methodology (CCA) is used to link the model projected states as predictors to the predictands of the target region. The target regions include a number of basins in East and South Africa as well as the Ganges / Baramaputra / Meghna basin complex. The MOS approach used address spatial downscaling. Temporal disaggregation of monthly seasonal forecasts is achieved through use of a tercile bootstrapping approach. We interpret the results of these studies, the levels of skill by several metrics, and key uncertainties.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Engineering Against Digital Risk in CIP Applications: Cyber-Informed Engineering Use Cases

Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) addresses the reality that cyber attacks on engineered systems can have consequences far beyond data loss or disruption of digital networks. When control systems are compromised, safety, reliability, and performance of the physical process itself may be threatened. This presentation discusses engineered controls of 7 categories and the CIE database of controls that provides clear examples and guidance for defining and applying engineered controls in CIE. It explains what engineered controls are, how they differ from information security measures, and how they are integrated into system design.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Designing resilient IoT and Edge Computing with federated tinyML

The rapid growth of the Internet of Things (IoT) and Edge Computing (EC) has brought significant conveniences to modern society but has also greatly expanded the cyber attack surfaces, particularly as these technologies are being increasingly integrated into critical systems such as power grids, healthcare, and smart homes. Here, to improve IoT/EC’s cybersecurity posture, we leveraged Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) by employing tinyML to monitor voluminous IoT data for cyber threats while addressing devices’ resource constraints, and utilizing Federated Learning (FL) to share local detection knowledge across the system while preserving privacy. Building on our three-layer architecture combining tinyML and FL to enhance autonomous cyber attack detection, this paper demonstrated that the architecture improves detection accuracy, reduces resource consumption, and enables lightweight, secure IoT device monitoring. These results were validated using the public N-BaIoT dataset as well as real IoT network traffic data collected under multiple attack scenarios from our testbeds. Additionally, we introduced an enhanced FL methodology with a novel preprocessing stage, including federated feature selection and global preprocessor construction, to address IoT/EC data heterogeneity. We developed a physical IoT testbed for attack simulations and data collection, implemented a tinyML-powered detector for realistic model validation, and also built a virtual testbed for scalable evaluations of FL models across diverse network environments.

Cognitive cyber↗

DOE OSTI2021

Demonstration of Advanced Experimental and Theoretical Characterization of Hydrogen Dynamics and Associated Behavior in Advanced Reactors

Advanced materials development, manufacturing, and modeling capabilities for innovative reactor designs support nuclear security and mission-focused science through enhanced technology for safer and more efficient and secure production of nuclear energy. The research in this project has established: 1) a state-of-the-art neutron-based hydrogen mapping and cross-section measurement capability as well as detailed crystallographic characterization of hydrogen atoms at LANSCE, and 2) a multi-physics framework for simulating behavior of moderator materials and other material performance in advanced nuclear reactors. Through the course of this project, we successfully developed and demonstrated measurement techniques for hydrogen distribution and atomistic-scale behavior of hydrogen atoms using pulsed neutron techniques. In parallel, advanced multi-physics simulation tools to predict the behavior of hydrogen atoms, e.g. in a moderator for a nuclear reactor, through materials performance, neutron transport, and thermal mechanical behavior were enhanced. Multi-discipline areas across the laboratory were involved in the project as the integration of improved experimental capabilities with enhanced modeling and simulation through MST, NEN, SIGMA, and XCP division subject matter experts.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

LDRD Abbreviated report: High-Order General-Discrete-Ordinates Method Enabling Efficient Deterministic Transport in Hydrodynamic Simulations

Deterministic transport simulations for national-security and energy applications often operate in high-dimensional phase-space, where accuracy and cost both become major challenges. A common numerical artifact in such problems is the “ray-effect,” which appears as unphysical streaks. Beyond misinterpretation, these artifacts can contaminate tightly coupled physics, such as fluid dynamics, radiation-hydrodynamics, and laser-plasma interactions, eroding the predictive capability of entire multiphysics workflows. Our objective was to make high-dimension studies practical on modern hardware while mitigating the ray-effect without relying on prohibitively expensive sampling approaches such as Monte Carlo methods. We developed the Generic Discretization Library (GenDiL), a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-first framework that uses high-order Discontinuous Galerkin (DG) methods and matrix-free algorithms to reduce memory usage and improve computational efficiency, critical for phase-space simulations. GenDiL supports phase-space adaptivity in both mesh size and polynomial order (hp-adaptivity) to place resolution only where it is needed. A central capability is Local Dimensional Refinement (LDR), which couples lower-dimension continuum models to higher-dimension kinetic models through stable and conservative interfaces, so that high-fidelity physics is applied only in regions where it is essential. Building on the GenDiL framework, we developed the General SN (GSN) family of algorithms as a true generalization of the polar SN approach (discrete ordinates, often denoted SN). Rather than tying discrete ordinates to a specific polar change of coordinates, GSN formulates transport on an arbitrary change of coordinates chosen to reduce ray-effect. We studied two complementary variants: an analytic variant, where the coordinate map is prescribed in advance by a closed-form function; and a data-driven variant, where a quantity of interest, such as the net flux, guides the coordinate system. GenDiL provides the library infrastructure for efficient GPU execution, but the GSN concept is algorithmic and independent of any one library. Across representative high-dimension tests, including non-symmetric solutions, both variants delivered strong ray-effect mitigation at practical cost, moving four- to six-dimensional analysis toward repeatable, routine studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Digital-Threat Bias and Psychological Distance: Barriers to Foundational Digital-Security Improvement

Modern life is held together by a web of digital dependencies that enable and provide delivery of critical services and functions—think the provision of utilities such as electricity and water, as well as our dependency on digital services for social and economic services (internet, communication, etc.). As this dependency grows, the complexity related to the delivery of these critical services increases as well. As complexity increases, the understanding of the risk and impact associated with potential disruption, degradation, or destruction—due to either malicious or non-malicious events of those digitally enabled functions—decreases. One potential explanation for the difficulty to 1) understand the risks faced and 2) address them appropriately and effectively is the abstractness and psychological distance assigned to “digital threat.” The complexity of these digitally enabled services creates a perceived complicatedness; as a result, digital threats are treated differently than similarly devasting (but more easily understood) kinetic or physical threats. How we categorize these threats also matters. Acts of cyber-enabled sabotage to critical infrastructure need to be defined as irregular warfare. By inadequately defining the threat, we compound the problem. Acknowledging this digital-threat bias is foundational to improving the ability to protect critical infrastructure. Using construal-level theory and psychological-distance concepts provides an intriguing starting point to address these issues, to reframe the challenges faced, and pursue more effective critical infrastructure security and defense policy.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exponential Backoff and Its Security Implications for Safety-Critical OT Protocols over TCP/IP Networks

The convergence of Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) networks has become increasingly prevalent with the growth of Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) applications. This shift, while enabling enhanced automation, remote monitoring, and data sharing, also introduces new challenges related to communication latency and cybersecurity. Oftentimes, legacy OT protocols were adapted to the TCP/IP stack without an extensive review of the ramifications to their robustness, performance, or safety objectives. To further accommodate the IT/OT convergence, protocol gateways were introduced to facilitate the migration from serial protocols to TCP/IP protocol stacks within modern IT/OT infrastructure. However, they often introduce additional vulnerabilities by exposing traditionally isolated protocols to external threats. This study investigates the security and reliability implications of migrating serial protocols to TCP/IP stacks and the impact of protocol gateways, utilizing two widely used OT protocols: Modbus TCP and DNP3. Our protocol analysis finds a significant safety-critical vulnerability resulting from this migration, and our subsequent tests clearly demonstrate its presence and impact. A multi-tiered testbed, consisting of both physical and emulated components, is used to evaluate protocol performance and the effects of device-specific implementation flaws. Through this analysis of specifications and behaviors during communication interruptions, we identify critical differences in fault handling and the impact on time-sensitive data delivery. The findings highlight how reliance on lower-level IT protocols can undermine OT system resilience, and they inform the development of mitigation strategies to enhance the robustness of industrial communication networks.

DNP3↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Father’s Day Tribute Father-son Nobel Prize-winning physicists worked together at the Lab

Partners in physics during the World War II years, father and son Niels and Aage Bohr worked side by side on the Lab’s top-secret effort to create the first atomic bombs. Arriving in Los Alamos in late 1943, Aage was just 21 years old. He had been studying physics to follow in the footsteps of his father, who had won a Nobel Prize in 1922. Aage’s higher education, however, had been interrupted by the rapid spread of Nazism in Europe. The Bohrs, who had Jewish heritage, fled their native Denmark to escape persecution, eventually arriving in Los Alamos to aid in the creation of weapons that would help end the war. Their story is part of the collections at the National Security Research Center, which is the Lab’s classified library and also houses unclassified historic materials. While at Los Alamos, Niels and Aage were accorded VIP status because of the family’s scientific renown and given new names to protect their identities: Aage was James Baker, while his father was Nicholas Baker, but the scientific community called him Uncle Nick. Whether called Niels and Aage or Nick and Jim, father and son were inseparable.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Non-Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Corrective Action Unit (CAU) Post-Closure Inspection Report, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada For Calendar Year 2025

This report includes visual inspection results, descriptions of maintenance and repair activities, and recommendations for CY 2025 for use restrictions (URs) at corrective action sites (CASs) located on the Nevada National Security Site and on the Nevada Test and Training Range (NTTR) that are accessed through the NNSS Main Gate. This document is arranged by project activity (i.e., Industrial Sites, Soils, and Defense Threat Reduction Agency [DTRA]); then by corrective action unit (CAU); and then by CAS. Post-closure UR inspections are performed on an annual basis, unless as noted in text. Post-closure UR inspections verify the condition of physical controls required by each UR, which may include the following activities: • Visual verification of the legibility of signs • Visual inspection of fencing, signs, monuments, and/or markers for indications of wear • Visual inspection of soil covers for indications of subsidence, erosion, or unauthorized use Deficiencies in UR requirements that were identified during CY 2024 inspections and not addressed in the CY 2024 report are addressed in this CY 2025 report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optimization with Neural Network Feasibility Surrogates: Formulations and Application to Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow

In many areas of constrained optimization, representing all possible constraints that give rise to an accurate feasible region can be difficult and computationally prohibitive for online use. Satisfying feasibility constraints becomes more challenging in high-dimensional, non-convex regimes which are common in engineering applications. A prominent example that is explored in the manuscript is the security-constrained optimal power flow (SCOPF) problem, which minimizes power generation costs, while enforcing system feasibility under contingency failures in the transmission network. In its full form, this problem has been modeled as a nonlinear two-stage stochastic programming problem. In this work, we propose a hybrid structure that incorporates and takes advantage of both a high-fidelity physical model and fast machine learning surrogates. Neural network (NN) models have been shown to classify highly non-linear functions and can be trained offline but require large training sets. In this work, we present how model-guided sampling can efficiently create datasets that are highly informative to a NN classifier for non-convex functions. We show how the resultant NN surrogates can be integrated into a non-linear program as smooth, continuous functions to simultaneously optimize the objective function and enforce feasibility using existing non-linear solvers. Overall, this allows us to optimize instances of the SCOPF problem with an order of magnitude CPU improvement over existing methods.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Basic Research Needs for Transformative Manufacturing (Brochure)

Manufacturing is central to the nation’s prosperity and security. Manufacturing currently represents about 12% of the gross domestic product, provides nearly 13 million jobs, and accounts for about 25% of energy use. The nation’s economy relies heavily on wide-ranging manufacturing sectors - all of which share common challenges including data issues, lack of physics and chemistry-based models across scales, and resource constraints in a global environment. Furthermore, there are many hurdles that must be overcome to move basic science innovations to market. Addressing broad-ranging challenges demands a basic-science strategy that underpins applied research activities. This strategy would accelerate innovation and transform manufacturing. A Basic Research Needs workshop for Transformative Manufacturing was held in March 2020. The focus of the workshop was to identify the basic science research priorities that could accelerate innovation to transform manufacturing in the future. This was the first workshop of its kind to examine how basic energy science can drive manufacturing forward and innovate new ways to manufacture goods. Five Priority Research Directions were identified that address these science challenges: (1) innovative synthetic approaches to enable scalable assembly of matter, (2) computational methods and theoretical models to transform how manufacturing processes are controlled, (3) new characterization tools that can handle the necessary complexity, scales, and processing speeds to meet manufacturing needs, (4) new science to address opportunities relevant to sustainable and energy-efficient manufacturing, and (5) foundational approaches to co-design of materials, process, and products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Discovery and Spectroscopic Characterization of a Distant, Compact Milky Way Satellite in Gemini

We present the discovery of a compact Milky Way satellite in the constellation of Gemini. This system was discovered by cross-matching detections from two independent search algorithms applied to Blanco/DECam data from the third data release of the DECam Local Volume Exploration survey (DELVE DR3), and confirmed with deeper imaging from Gemini/GMOS-N. Based on these data, we determine that the system is an ultra-faint ($M_V = -2.1^{+0.4}_{-0.6}$), compact ($r_{1/2} = 8.6^{+1.4}_{-1.2}$ pc) system located at a heliocentric distance of $120^{+7}_{-6}$ kpc. These physical properties place the system in the regime of ambiguous, ultra-faint compact Milky Way halo satellites that cannot be confidently classified as dwarf galaxies or star clusters from morphology alone; we therefore name the system DELVE 8/Gemini I. From medium-resolution Keck/DEIMOS spectroscopy, we securely identify four members including two blue horizontal branch stars, confirming the system as a bound satellite moving at a mean radial velocity of $v_{\rm hel} = -82.7^{+3.7}_{-3.9} {\rm km\,s}^{-1}$. We also use these spectra to place an upper limit of $\rm [Fe/H] \lesssim -2.5$ on the metallicity of DELVE 8/Gemini I's brightest star, supporting the classification of the system as either an ancient star cluster or ultra-faint dwarf galaxy. The discovery of faint, distant systems similar to DELVE 8/Gemini I is expected to become more common with upcoming surveys.

Overdeck, K. [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗

DOE OSTI2024

Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry: Workshop Summary

This document presents a summary of the 2023 Terrestrial Very-Long-Baseline Atom Interferometry Workshop hosted by CERN. The workshop brought together experts from around the world to discuss the exciting developments in large-scale atom interferometer (AI) prototypes and their potential for detecting ultralight dark matter and gravitational waves. The primary objective of the workshop was to lay the groundwork for an international TVLBAI proto-collaboration. This collaboration aims to unite researchers from different institutions to strategize and secure funding for terrestrial large-scale AI projects. The ultimate goal is to create a roadmap detailing the design and technology choices for one or more km-scale detectors, which will be operational in the mid-2030s. The key sections of this report present the physics case and technical challenges, together with a comprehensive overview of the discussions at the workshop together with the main conclusions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational and Mission Highlights (A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements, November 2022)

On November 16, Los Alamos National Laboratory Director Thom Mason answered questions from the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) at a public hearing in Santa Fe about the safety of operations at the Laboratory’s plutonium facility and the pit production mission. Mason participated on a panel along with National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA) Administrator Jill Hruby, Deputy NNSA Administrator James McConnell, and NNSA Los Alamos Field Office Manager Ted Wyka.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

Workshop on Establishing and Operating a National Nuclear Security Support Centre Hypothetical Scenario: "Republic of Centralia Nuclear Security Support Centre Feasibility Report"

[This is part of a hypothetical, scenario-based exercise for workshop participants, based on the fictitious country "Centralia."] This report serves as official record of the coordinated process completed by competent authorities and other organizations with nuclear security responsibilities in the Republic of Centralia to determine the feasibility of establishing and operating a national nuclear security support centre (NSSC). The report summarizes all sustainability needs and available resources identified during the feasibility determination process, including consideration of possible NSSC institutional models, in line with the systematic approach recommended by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Centralia Nuclear Regulatory Authority (CNRA), as the designated lead organization for coordinating the feasibility determination process, has prepared this report in collaboration with members of the Committee on Nuclear Security (CNS) and based on input gathered among relevant national stakeholders. The report has been presented to the National Security Advisor (NSA), for final review and decision-making as to whether Centralia should proceed with establishing an NSSC.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

The National Nuclear Security Administration

The mission of NNSA, as designated by Congress, is to maintain a safe, secure, and effective nuclear deterrent; to provide naval nuclear propulsion; and to prevent, counter, and respond to threats of nuclear proliferation and terrorism worldwide.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2023

TEX-Hf: Integral Experiment Execution of Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments using Highly Enriched Uranium with Polyethylene and Hafnium (IER-532 CED-3b Report)

This report documents the experimental configurations and measurements for IER-532, Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) with highly enriched uranium (HEU) fuel and interstitial hafnium (Hf), moderated and reflected by polyethylene. TEX-Hf is a variation of and based on the TEX-HEU (IER-297) design, with the inclusion of hafnium. These configurations provide integral experiments for validation of hafnium in the thermal, intermediate, and fast neutron energy regimes by maximizing the sensitivity in k eff to the hafnium isotope cross sections. The experiment campaign was completed over seven weeks during the end of FY22 and beginning of FY23 at the National Critical Experiments Research Center at the Nevada National Security Site. The campaign produced seven experimental configurations, four reproducibility measurements, and many additional dimensional measurements that will be of use to the future benchmark evaluation of this experiment and other experiments using the same HEU fuel. Table 1 summarizes the TEX-Hf experimental configurations, including their physical parameters, calculated fission fractions, and estimated excess reactivities.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Faster-than-real-time Simulation with Demonstration for Resilient DER Integration

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. The Faster-than-real-time Simulation with demonstration for Resilient DER Integration project set out to do the following: a. Flatten the voltage profile through the feeders and system for cost saving and voltage stabilization needs. b. Increase the amount of intermittent distributed energy resources (IDERs) that could be deployed on a utility feeder and provide 100% or more energy needed for the demands on that feeder, and c. based on an accurate model (Digital Twin) of the utilities system, be able to detect any abnormalities on the utilities distribution system. To manage the voltage and increase IDER penetration (a,b), Graph Trace Analysis is employed in a time-series, optimal power flow to coordinate the time-varying feedback control setpoints of a distribution feeder’s utility control devices. Under the coordinated control are a Load Tap Changing Transformer, a voltage regulator, and five switched capacitor banks. The feeder serves over 2000 customers, the feeder secondaries are modeled, and the feeder has 2.3 MW of PV generation, corresponding to a 17.4% penetration of PV generation. The feeder model has over 12,000 components, where every customer load bus and PV generator are modeled. The accuracy of the power flow solution is compared against historical meter voltage measurements, the improvement in conservation voltage reduction energy savings as a function of the coordinated control desired voltage profile is investigated, and the increase in PV penetration of the coordinated control over the existing control is presented. To achieve improved control performance while observing system operation constraints, bellwether Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) voltage measurements are used to adjust the desired voltage profile used by the optimal power flow analysis. To detect and alleviate or negate attacks or failures on the distribution and transmission utility grids (c) the grid needs to be resilient and self-healing. In this project software was designed to do just that. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hard-ware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

Integrated System Model, Graph Trace Analysis, Adv↗