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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modeling Approach to Support Changeability Analysis and Management of Earth Observation Portfolios

Earth observing (EO) mission portfolios provide data on many geophysical parameters that collectively inform our understanding of the Earth system. To observe large-scale climate trends, it is important to collect data on many parameters over time. However, gaps may occur between missions due to formulation complexity, development delays, and uncertain events in operations. These gaps may impact the ability to provide sustained measurements. Developing a balanced EO mission portfolio is key to supporting study of the Earth system. Yet, decision-making at the portfolio level is a complex task because missions often address multiple parameters. Currently, the likelihood of data gaps is often assessed for an individual parameter, but decisions and events can impact data collection for many parameters. This poster introduces a modeling approach that supports management of the many parameter impacts of decisions and uncertain events. The approach provides a foundation for analyzing changeability in EO mission portfolios. Changeability analysis provides insight into a portfolio’s sensitivity to changes caused by decisions or uncertain events. The model is developed to analyze two aspects of changeability, robustness and flexibility, in EO mission portfolios. In context of these portfolios, the authors define robustness as a portfolio’s ability to provide sustained measurements despite future uncertainties, and they define flexibility as the availability of decision alternatives that contribute to parameter coverage at little detriment to the rest of the portfolio. The proposed model characterizes a portfolio’s sensitivity to change by capturing mission-parameter interconnectivity and redundancy in parameter coverage. The model can be analyzed to identify events that can create substantial gaps, thereby revealing focus areas for mitigation efforts. The model can also be analyzed to identify gap mitigation decisions that may improve parameter coverage with little detriment to the rest of the portfolio, thereby revealing favorable pathways for portfolio improvement. Developing a process for identifying these threats and opportunities will be the focus of future work. A parallel poster proposes a standard for visualizing and communicating portfolio-level impacts of decisions and uncertain events.

Lindsey Jacobson↗
DOE OSTI2025

Proceedings for the Workshop on Applied Nuclear Data Activities 2025

The 2025 Workshop for Applied Nuclear Data Activities (WANDA) covered four topic areas in nuclear data: Nuclear Data and Deterrence, Nuclear Data Prioritization for Fusion, High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium and Novel Moderators for Advanced Reactors, and Data Preservation and Data Workflows. The intention of this workshop is to connect different communities that are invested in nuclear data and have their own unique sets of needs for the purposes of sharing information, fostering collaboration in areas of shared interest, and leveraging synergistic capabilities. The attendance of federal program managers at these workshops is essential in creating awareness of the needs of their respective communities and in providing information to better guide funding investments. In each of these topical sessions, a general description of the nuclear data needs and/or capabilities was presented, along with discussions of existing capabilities that could be leveraged, potential synergistic needs or resources, and challenges that must be overcome for the application space to progress. There are many synergistic nuclear data needs among these application spaces. The discussion largely focused on increasing the accuracy of the nuclear data and better quantifying the data uncertainties that have the greatest impact on applications. The full-day session on data processing and data workflows was by nature intended to be synergistic and applicable to all technical sessions at WANDA. A notable common theme that was highlighted across all sessions was the need for accelerated delivery of nuclear data products across complex and time-consuming workflows.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nitrate and Nitrite at Hanford – From Tanks to Natural Attenuation

Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC (WRPS) contracted Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in support of their maturation testing and analysis to develop and deploy an ambient temperature solidification/stabilization process for low-activity waste (LAW) (referred to as “grout” in this report). The intent of this effort is to support a sample-and-send regulatory and processing strategy in the Hanford 200 West Area, specifically considering grout waste forms disposal at Hanford in the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF). Currently the disposal of grouted LAW is not an option because the IDF is not permitted to receive this waste form. The material presented in this report is intended to help inform the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the site operating contractors, regulatory agencies, and stakeholders of the future implications of IDF disposal of a grouted LAW waste form, specifically for the behavior of nitrate (NO 3 - ) and nitrite (NO 2 - ) at the Hanford. The only calculation of nitrate release from a hypothetical grouted LAW inventory in the IDF showed that the overall release was slightly above the compliance limit of 45 mg/L nitrate and 3.32 mg/L nitrate after 1000 years (Asmussen et al. 2019). As such, uncertainty around the impact of nitrate and nitrite release from the IDF was identified in the recent National Academies of Sciences study of Hanford supplemental LAW by both the national laboratory team and Hanford stakeholders (Bates et al. 2023). However, these calculations (and others for the IDF involving secondary waste grout) may be conservative as no nitrate and nitrite retention in the grout waste form was assumed, nor any attenuation in the subsurface. There is evidence from the literature of processes that can attenuate nitrate migration both in the waste form and in the Hanford subsurface. If found to be technically defensible and likely to occur in the IDF and associated subsurface, then these processes should be included in modeling of the IDF to represent the behavior of nitrate and nitrite more accurately. Doing so would remove unnecessary conservatism in the modeling projections and reduce the uncertainty in assessments of facility compliance of a grouted LAW waste form in the IDF.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2022

Evaluation of IMERG Satellite Precipitation Over the Land-Coast-Ocean Continuum – Part Ii: Quantification

To understand and manage water systems under a changing climate and meet an increasing demand for water, a quantitative understanding of precipitation is most important in coastal regions. The capabilities of the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) V06B product for precipitation quantification are examined over three coastal regions of the United States: the West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the East Coast, all of which are characterized by different topographies and precipitation climatologies. A novel uncertainty analysis of IMERG is proposed that considers environmental and physical parameters such as elevation and distance to the coastline. The IMERG performance is traced back to its components, i.e., passive microwave (PMW), infrared (IR), and morphing-based estimates. The analysis is performed using high-resolution, high-quality Ground Validation Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (GV-MRMS) rainfall estimates as ground reference at the native resolution of IMERG of 30 min and 0.1°. IMERG Final (IM-F) quantification performance heavily depends on the respective contribution of PMW, IR, and morph components. IM-F and its components overestimate the contribution of light rainfall (<1 mm h−1) and underestimate the contribution of high rainfall rates (>10 mm h−1) to the total rainfall volume. Strong regional dependencies are highlighted, especially over the West Coast, where the proximity of complex terrain to the coastline challenges precipitation estimates. Other major drivers are the distance from the coastline, elevation, and precipitation types, especially over the land and coast surface types, that highlight the impact of precipitation regimes.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural chaos: A spectral stochastic neural operator

Building surrogate models for operators with uncertainty quantification capabilities is essential for many engineering applications where randomness–such as variability in material properties, boundary conditions, and initial conditions–is unavoidable. Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) is widely recognized as a go-to method for constructing stochastic surrogates in both intrusive and non-intrusive ways, and it has recently been used in the context of operator learning. However, its application becomes challenging for complex or high-dimensional processes, as achieving accuracy requires higher-order polynomials, which can increase computational demand and/or the risk of overfitting. Furthermore, PCE requires specialized treatments to manage random variables that are not independent, and these treatments may be problem-dependent or may fail with increasing complexity. Here, in this work, we adopt the same formalism as the spectral expansion used in PCE; however, we replace the classical polynomial basis functions with neural network (NN) basis functions to leverage their expressivity. To achieve this, we propose an algorithm that identifies NN-parameterized basis functions in a purely data-driven manner, without any prior assumptions about the joint distribution of the random variables involved, whether independent or dependent, or about their marginal distributions. The proposed algorithm identifies each NN-parameterized basis function sequentially, ensuring they are orthogonal with respect to the data distribution. The basis functions are constructed directly on the joint stochastic variables without requiring a tensor product structure or assuming independence of the random variables. This approach may offer greater flexibility for complex stochastic models, while simplifying implementation compared to the tensor product structures typically used in PCE to handle random vectors. This is particularly advantageous given the current state of open-source packages, where building and training neural networks can be done with just a few lines of code and extensive community support. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme through several numerical examples of varying complexity and provide comparisons with classical PCE.

Polynomial chaos expansion↗
DOE OSTI2024

HiFiPDV2 v. 2

SAND2024-01061O The HiFiPDV-2 software is similar to other photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) analysis codes in that it converts signals from intensity-time space to frequency-time space using a short-time Fourier transform (STFT). It then analyzes peaks of the resulting power spectral density information to extract the velocity-time history. The unique aspects of HiFiPDV and HiFiPDV-2 are that this reduction process is repeated for an array of reasonable STFT input variables. The resulting population distribution of output velocity-time histories is evaluated to determine the most likely velocity history and its associated uncertainty. This uncertainty is defined as the systematic uncertainty of the PDV signal as it is a function of input values to the reduction process. The HiFiPDV-2 program brings new functionality and efficiency to these calculations—most notably significant reductions in memory usage and calculation times, the ability to evaluate frequency-shifted signals, and the ability to filter out baseline signals. Developers recommend that users have at least 2 GB of RAM per CPU core in their system. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Voorhees, Travis↗
DOE OSTI2020

SAM Plug-in Development (Phase I Final Report)

The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has created an extensive set of advanced modeling and simulation tools for nuclear engineering analysis. The advanced capabilities of these newer analysis codes require more in-depth training, skills, and knowledge in order to effectively utilize them for the design, analysis, and licensing of advanced nuclear systems and experiments. A high learning curve for inexperienced users may deter organizations from incorporating these tools into their internal processes. This project involved development of a plug-in to the Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP) for the System Analysis Module (SAM) tool. SAM is an advanced system analysis tool for reactor transient analyses being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. SAM utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SNAP provides a highly flexible framework for creating, modifying and documenting input for engineering analysis codes such as SAM as well as extensive functionality for submitting, monitoring, and interacting with the codes through an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). The common user interface provided by SNAP minimizes the learning curve for engineers starting with a new analysis code and provides an intuitive framework for transitioning between different analysis codes. SNAP provides a powerful but intuitive interface to facilitate access to advanced modeling and simulation tools for inexperienced users. Unlike many “form based” GUI’s, SNAP maps each engineering code’s component input to an internal database which manages all component input parameters along with component interconnections. This level of abstraction permits SNAP to support several advanced capabilities such as renodalization, model validation and consistency checks, embedded documentation, model notebook generation, data ownership and reviewer tracking, and variable assignment for inputs to name a few. SNAP includes a built-in Python interpreter and is interfaced to several commercial and open source packages including CPython, MATLAB/OCTAVE, Microsoft Office, Open Office, and SANDIA’s DAKOTA package which provides Uncertainty Quantification analysis through the SNAP plug-ins. Phase I of this project involved development a fully functional basic SAM plug-in to SNAP. This plug-in provides the ability to import existing models, graphically construct, edit and submit models using SNAP’s extensive functionality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2005

An Evaluation of the Applicability of Damage Tolerance to Dynamic Systems

The Federal Aviation Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the aircraft industry have teamed together to develop methods and guidance for the safe life-cycle management of dynamic systems. Based on the success of the United States Air Force damage tolerance initiative for airframe structure, a crack growth based damage tolerance approach is being examined for implementation into the design and management of dynamic systems. However, dynamic systems accumulate millions of vibratory cycles per flight hour, more than 12,000 times faster than an airframe system. If a detectable crack develops in a dynamic system, the time to failure is extremely short, less than 100 flight hours in most cases, leaving little room for error in the material characterization, life cycle analysis, nondestructive inspection and maintenance processes. In this paper, the authors review the damage tolerant design process focusing on uncertainties that affect dynamic systems and evaluate the applicability of damage tolerance on dynamic systems.

Forth, Scott C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

V and V of ISHM Software for Space Exploration

NASA has established a far-reaching and long-term program for robotic and manned exploration of the solar system, beginning with missions to the moon and Mars. The Crew Transportation System (CTS), a key system for space exploration, imposes four requirements' that ISHM addresses. These requirements have a wide range of implications for V&V and certification of ISHM. There is a range of time-criticality for ISHM actions, from prognostication, which is often (but not always) non-time-critical, to time-critical state estimation and system management under off-nominal emergency conditions. These are externally imposed requirements on ISHM that are subject to V&V. - In addition, a range of techniques are needed to implement an ISHM. The approaches to ISHM are described elsewhere. These approaches range from well-understood algorithms for low-level data analysis, validation and reporting, to AI techniques for state estimation and planning. The range of techniques, and specifically the use of AI techniques such as reasoning under uncertainty and mission planning (and re-planning), implies that several V&V approaches may be required. Depending on the ISHM architecture, traditional testing approaches may be adequate for some ISHM functionality. The AI-based approaches to reasoning under uncertainty, model-based reasoning, and planning share characteristics typical of other complex software systems, but they also have characteristics that set them apart and challenge standard V&V techniques. The range of possible solutions to the overall ISHM problem impose internal challenges to V&V. The V&V challenges increase when hard real-time constraints are imposed for time-critical functionality. For example, there is an external requirement that impending catastrophic failure of the Launch Vehicle (LV) at launch time be detected and life-saving action be taken within two seconds. In this paper we outline the challenges for ISHM V&V, existing approaches and analogs in other software application areas, and possible new approaches to the V&V challenges for space exploration ISHM.

Markosian, Lawrence↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and Characterization of Cementitious Waste Forms for Immobilization of Granular Activated Carbon, Silver Mordenite, and HEPA Filter Media Solid Secondary Waste

At the Department of Energy’s Hanford site, over 53 million gallons of chemically complex and radioactive wastes have been stored in 177 underground tanks. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) is under construction and is designed to treat and immobilize these wastes. During operations of WTP, solid secondary wastes (SSWs) will be generated as a result of waste treatment, vitrification, off-gas management, and supporting process activities. SSW treatment processes and resulting disposal pathways for the final disposition form of the SSW are needed to support direct feed low activity waste (DFLAW) operations and facilitate continued operation of WTP. The SSWs produced through WTP operations are expected to include used process equipment, contaminated tools and instruments, decontamination wastes, high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters, carbon absorption beds (granular activated carbon, GAC), silver mordenite (AgM) and spent ion-exchange resins. These waste streams are planned to be immobilized in a cementitious waste form and disposed of either as stabilized/blended (non-debris) or encapsulated (debris) in a cementitious waste form. Accordingly, cementitious waste forms from these streams were included in the 2017 Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) Performance Assessment (PA). The input data used to represent these SSW forms in the 2017 IDF PA involved many assumptions and associated uncertainties. This data limitation was due to the lack of material- and site-specific data available for representative SSW materials in cementitious matrices. To verify the assumed values used in the IDF PA and fill this limitation in available data, Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC (WRPS), has initiated a program targeted toward gathering site specific data relevant to Hanford SSW disposal. The work within this report is a continuation of this ongoing program.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using the Carbon Capture Simulation Initiative (CCSI) Tool to Design the Experiments in the Parametric Campaign of a Novel Compact Absorber for Carbon Capture

Gas absorption towers with structured packing and solvent have been used for Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Capture for about many decades. To overcome process limitations and practical disadvantages for CO 2 capture from the stationary emitter (e.g. NG and coal power plant), many new designs have been proposed and explored at the various scales in the last decade with aim of either low energy penalty or low capital cost. To reduce the size of the absorption tower and hence the total cost of CO 2 capture, the University of Kentucky Center for Applied Energy Research Center (UK CAER) has designed and built a novel CO 2 capture absorption tower or Compact Absorber, integrated into an existing large-bench scale CO 2 capture unit. The Compact Absorber has three sections. The top of the column is a fogging section where the solvent is sprayed through a nozzle producing droplets flowing downward in a co-current fashion with the flue gas. The center of the column is a frothing section where the solvent and flue gas flow through regenerative frothing screens designed by Industrial Climate Solutions, Inc. The bottom of the column is a typical structured packing section were the flue gas and solvent flow in a counter-current fashion. The parametric campaign will be conducted in order to optimize the operating parameters for CO 2 capture including liquid/gas ratio, lean loading, and temperature, liquid residence time. A simulated flue gas with 14% CO 2 will be used along with a UK CAER developed proprietary solvent. The 100-hour parametric campaign is designed using a statistical approach of the Sequential Design of Experiments (sDOE). sDOE is one of the CCSI tools that provides an adaptive statistical approach for designing future experiments based on the results of previous experiments. Application of a typical DOE provides the user with the minimum number of experiments required to get the same data, but sDOE allows the user to make an informed choice of experiments based on the results of previous experiments. The complete absorption column has been constructed and has been partially commissioned. Initial data has been collected by operating using the fogging section and the frothing section. The fogging section produces solvent droplets of about 100 μm sauter mean diameter and as small as 25 μm using a hydraulic nozzle by BETE. The frothing section produces bubbles of about 5mm with high mixing of solvent promoting the higher mass transfer from gas to liquid. The absorber reaches the capture efficiency of about 50% with only two sections in operation. Based on the current results, it can be deduced that increasing the solvent feed temperature and including the packed section for absorption the capture efficiency will increase further. Initial data will be collected using all three sections of the absorber and will be used for sDOE. Non-Uniform Space Filling model of sDOE will be used to prioritize the input conditions resulting into maximum capture efficiency. sDOE is performed using the platform called Framework Optimization, Quantification of Uncertainty, and Surrogates (FOQUS). The method and results demonstrating the progress of the parametric campaign from the initial set of experiments to the final stage of obtaining optimized parameters using sDOE tool will be presented in detail.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Staged Z-Pinch Modeling with Hydra and Chicago Codes (CRADA Final Report)

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (“Contractor”), as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (“LLNL”) and Magneto Inertial Fusion Technologies, Inc. ("MIFTI" or "Participant"), to develop staged Z-pinch (SZP) modeling with HYDRA and CHICAGO codes. The contractor performed numerical simulations of the SZP to reproduce and validate Participant’s MACH2 simulations. Contractor used the state-of-the-art, radiation-magneto-hydrodynamic code HYDRA, as well as the hybrid particle-in-cell code CHICAGO. This work helped assess the physical and numerical uncertainties associated with the simulations and the overall fusion scheme. HYDRA is a well-established and validated code. This work has helped to independently assess the SZP concept to give confidence to the Participant and to the broader fusion community.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hydraulic Properties Data Package for the E-Area Soils, Cementitious Materials, and Waste Zones–Update

Hydraulic property estimates for the soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones associated with the E-Area low-level radioactive waste disposal units have been provided to support the Performance Assessments (PA) for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF). Nominal or “best estimate” hydraulic property values for use in the deterministic modeling are provided along with representations of the hydraulic property value uncertainty for use in sensitivity and uncertainty modeling. The hydraulic properties provided for each of the E-Area materials include: porosity ( η ), dry bulk density ( ρ b ), particle density (ρ p ), saturated hydraulic conductivity ( K sat ), characteristic curves (suction head, saturation, and relative permeability), and effective diffusion coefficient ( D e ). A representation of the uncertainty associated with each property, except for the characteristic curves, is provided for each material, except for the E-Area waste zones. These nominal parameter values for each of the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones, and, where indicated, parameter uncertainty representations, are based upon the following in order of priority: Site-specific field data, Site-specific laboratory data, Similarity to material with site-specific field or laboratory data, and Literature data. Additionally, a methodology to represent long-term concrete degradation is provided. Finally, because much of the nominal hydraulic property values and uncertainty representations for the E-Area soils, cementitious materials, and waste zones are based on similarity to other materials or literature data, a methodology to prioritize additional work to better define these values and representations is outlined. Prioritization should be based on the importance of the material and/or property to the results of deterministic, sensitivity, and uncertainty modeling. This prioritization should be established through a process of sensitivity modeling. This report supersedes the previous hydraulic properties data package. Revision 1 contains clarifications, updates and corrections to text, figures and tables in a number of places in the report along with some minor editing.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ground Risk Informed Operational Planning for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

Increasing quantities of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) operations present many challenges in terms of safe adoption and integration into existing airspace. The ability to study and quantify the risk to third parties on the ground prior to flight is an important step toward enabling Beyond Visual Line of Sight (BVLOS) operations. The Ground Risk Assessment Service Provider (GRASP) software is a capability developed by NASA to assist with third-party risk quantification and risk-informed flight planning. In this paper, two nominal flight paths intended to represent an infrastructure inspection mission are evaluated using the software to demonstrate its utility. A method is also introduced for adding other NASA-developed capabilities into a single architecture to assess a broader set of operational risks associated with BVLOS operations. These capabilities include a navigation system performance prediction tool, a high fidelity vehicle dynamics model, high resolution wind field data, and other information pertinent to operators. Data produced by these capabilities are combined to enable use of the Performance Based Navigation (PBN) concept borrowed from conventional aviation, providing quantified flight path uncertainty for where the sUAS is likely to be relative to its nominal flight plan. Ground risk is assessed within this region of uncertainty, giving a higher level of confidence in the solution compared to an analysis of only the nominal flight path.

Ground Risk↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian modeling of traffic-related air pollutants: A case study of urban transportation and air quality dynamics in Columbia, South Carolina

Traffic emissions significantly impact near-road air quality and public health. This research applies a Bayesian modeling framework to investigate these impacts using high-resolution traffic and air pollutant data from an urban corridor in Columbia, South Carolina. Despite a data collection period truncated by the COVID-19 lockdown, the Bayesian approach successfully identified significant predictors and quantified model uncertainty. Employing Bayesian Model Selection and Averaging enhanced prediction accuracy and evaluated model uncertainty. Findings indicate that higher temperatures and increased moisture levels elevate particulate matter (PM 1.0 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) concentrations, while traffic speed significantly affects nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) levels. Specifically, higher average traffic speeds (indicative of smoother flow) correspond to lower NO 2 concentrations, suggesting that less congested conditions reduce NO 2 emissions. This study highlights the robustness of Bayesian methods for generating reliable air quality insights even under data-constrained conditions. The findings underscore the importance of traffic flow management (e.g., reducing congestion) for mitigating near-road NO 2 exposure and provide a basis for developing targeted public health strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

AWCC Simulations

Neutron well counters provide a means to measure fissile mass by detecting coincident neutrons, which is a unique signature to fission. For coincidence counting, mass is determined using a calibration curve established with items that have the same material characteristics. Multiplicity analysis solves the point model equations for mass using known detector parameters. In both cases, mass measurements may exhibit a bias due to item characteristics and should be corrected for. Experiments can be done to estimate bias and material effects, but they require having both the well counter and the material well defined. In pursuit of estimating measurement bias and uncertainty in a High Efficiency Neutron Counter (HENC), an MCNP simulation was matched to measurements performed with an Active Well Coincidence Counter (AWCC) to de ne a neutron source term. The neutron source term will be used to predict measurement performance of similar material types in a HENC.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗