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Detectability of QCD phase transitions in binary neutron star mergers: Bayesian inference with the next generation gravitational wave detectors

We study the detectability of postmerger QCD phase transitions in neutron star binaries with next-generation gravitational-wave detectors Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope. We perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron star mergers with equations of state that include a quark deconfinement phase transition through either a Gibbs or Maxwell construction. These are followed by Bayesian parameter estimation of the associated gravitational-wave signals using the nrpmw waveform model, with priors inferred from the analysis of the inspiral signal. We assess the ability of the model to measure the postmerger peak frequency $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ and identify aspects that should be improved in the model. We show that, even at postmerger signal to noise ratios as low as 10, the model can distinguish (at the 90% level) $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ between binaries with and without a phase transition in most cases. Phase-transition induced deviations in the $f$$^{peak}_{2}$ from the predictions of equation-of-state insensitive relations can also be detected if they exceed 1.6⁢σ. Our results suggest that next-generation gravitational wave detectors can measure phase transition effects in binary neutron star mergers. Furthermore, unless the phase transition is “strong,” disentangling it from other hadronic physics uncertainties will require significant theory improvements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Detectability of subsolar mass neutron stars through a template bank search

Here, we study the detectability of gravitational-wave signals from subsolar-mass binary neutron star systems by the current generation of ground-based gravitational-wave detectors. We find that finite size effects from large tidal deformabilities of the neutron stars and lower merger frequencies can significantly impact the sensitivity of the detectors to these sources. By simulating a matched-filter based search using injected binary neutron star signals with tidal deformabilities derived from physically motivated equations of state, we calculate the reduction in sensitivity of the detectors. We conclude that the loss in sensitive volume can be as high as 78.4% for an equal mass binary system of chirp mass 0.17M ⊙ , in a search conducted using binary black hole template banks. We use this loss in sensitive volume, in combination with the results from the search for subsolar-mass binaries conducted on data collected by the LIGO-Virgo observatories during their first three observing runs, to obtain a conservative upper limit on the merger rate of subsolar-mass binary neutron stars. Since the discovery of a low-mass neutron star would provide new insight into formation mechanisms of neutron stars and further constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter, our result merits a dedicated search for subsolar-mass binary neutron star signals.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Quantifying modeling uncertainties when combining multiple gravitational-wave detections from binary neutron star sources

Here, with the increasing sensitivity of gravitational-wave detectors, we expect to observe multiple binary neutron-star systems through gravitational waves in the near future. The combined analysis of these gravitational-wave signals offers the possibility to constrain the neutron-star radius and the equation of state of dense nuclear matter with unprecedented accuracy. However, it is crucial to ensure that uncertainties inherent in the gravitational-wave models will not lead to systematic biases when information from multiple detections is combined. To quantify waveform systematics, we perform an extensive simulation campaign of binary neutron-star sources and analyze them with a set of four different waveform models. For our analysis with 38 simulations, we find that statistical uncertainties in the neutron-star radius decrease to ± 250 m (2% at 90% credible interval) but that systematic differences between currently employed waveform models can be twice as large. Hence, it will be essential to ensure that systematic biases will not become dominant in inferences of the neutron-star equation of state when capitalizing on future developments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Nonequilibrium effects on stability of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions

The stability of hybrid stars with first-order phase transitions as determined by calculating fundamental radial oscillation modes is known to differ from the predictions of the widely used Bardeen-Thorne-Meltzer criterion. We consider the effects of out-of-chemical-equilibrium physics on the radial modes and hence stability of these objects. For a barotropic equation of state, this is done by allowing the adiabatic sound speed to differ from the equilibrium sound speed. We show that doing so extends the stable branches of stellar models, allowing stars with rapid phase transitions to support stable higher-order stellar multiplets similarly to stars with multiple slow phase transitions. We also derive a new junction condition to impose on the oscillation modes at the phase transition. Termed the reactive condition, it is physically motivated, consistent with the generalized junction conditions between two phases, and has the common rapid and slow conditions as limiting cases. Unlike the two common cases, it can only be applied to nonbarotropic stars. Here, we apply this junction condition to hybrid stellar models generated using a two-phase equation of state consisting of nuclear matter with unpaired quark matter at high densities joined by a first-order phase transition and show that, like in the slow limiting case, stars that are classically unstable are stabilized by a finite chemical reaction speed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Investigation of Mixing Law Efficacy for Gaseous Hydrodynamic Simulations

A computational simulation of various mixing laws for gaseous equations of state using planar traveling shocks for multiple mixtures in three dimensions is analyzed against nominal experimental data. Numerical simulations utilize the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH and other codes including the thermochemical equilibrium code TIGER and the uncertainty qualification and sensitivity analysis code DAKOTA. The mixtures are a 1:1 and a 1:3 molar mixture of helium and sulfur hexafluoride. The mixing laws to be analyzed are the ideal gas law, Amagat's Law, Dalton's Law, the BKW EOS, the EXP6 EOS, and the JCZ3 EOS. Examination of the experimental data with TIGER revealed that the shock strength should not be strong enough to turn the mixture non-ideal as the compressibility factor z was essentially unity (z ≈ 1.02). Experimental results show that none of the equations of state are able to accurately predict the properties of the shocked mixture; similar discrepancies have been observed in previous works. Kinetic molecular theory appears to introduce a parameter which offers an explanation regarding the discrepancies. Implementation of the KMT pararneter into the EOS is left for future work.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Acoustic transmission matrix of a variable area duct or nozzle carrying a compressible subsonic flow

The differential equations governing the propagation of sound in a variable area duct or nozzle carrying a one-dimensional subsonic compressible fluid flow are derived and put in state variable form using acoustic pressure and particle velocity as the state variables. The duct or nozzle is divided into a number of regions. The region size is selected so that in each region the Mach number can be assumed constant and the area variation can be approximated by an exponential area variation. Consequently, the state variable equation in each region has constant coefficients. The transmission matrix for each region is obtained by solving the constant coefficient acoustic state variable differential equation. The transmission matrix for the duct or nozzle is the product of the individual transmission matrices of each region. Solutions are presented for several geometries with and without mean flow.

Miles, J. H.↗

Massive neutron stars with a color superconducting quark matter core

In this work, we construct the equation of state for high-density neutron star matter at zero temperature using the two-flavor Nambu–Jona-Lasinio (NJL) model as an effective theory of QCD. We build nuclear matter, quark matter, and the mixed phases from the same NJL Lagrangian, which has been used to model free and in-medium hadrons as well as nuclear systems. A focus here is to determine if the same coupling constants in the scalar diquark and vector meson channels, which give a good description of nucleon structure and nuclear matter, can also be used for the color superconducting high-density quark matter phase. We find that this is possible for the scalar diquark (pairing) interaction, but the vector meson interaction has to be reduced so that superconducting quark matter becomes the stable phase at high densities. We compare our equation of state with recent phenomenological parametrizations based on generic stability conditions for neutron stars. We find that the maximum mass of a hybrid star, with a color superconducting quark matter core, exceeds 2.01 ± 0.04 M⊙, which is the value of the recently observed massive neutron star PSR J0348+0432. The mass-radius relation is also consistent with gravitational wave observations (GW170817).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Samarium: from a distorted-fcc phase to melting under dynamic compression using in-situ x-ray diffraction

Abstract Lattice and electronic structure interactions for f -electrons are fundamental challenges for lanthanide equation of state development. Difficulties in first-principles calculations, such as density functional theory (DFT), emphasize the need for well-characterized experimental data. Here, we measure in-situ x-ray diffraction of shocked samarium (Sm) and temperature along the Hugoniot for the first time, providing direct evidence for phase transitions. We report direct evidence of a distorted fcc (dfcc) phase at 23 GPa. Shocked samarium melts from the dfcc phase starting at 33 GPa (1333 K), with complete melt at 40 GPa (1468 K). Previous work indicated shock melt at 27 GPa (1200 K), underscoring the significance of x-ray measurements for detecting phase transitions. Interestingly, our observed melting is in sharp contrast with the melting reported by a diamond anvil cell study. These experimental data can tightly constrain first principles calculations and serve as key touchstones for equation of state modeling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Universal relations for neutron star 𝑓-mode and 𝑔-mode oscillations

Among the various oscillation modes of neutron stars, 𝑓- and 𝑔- modes are the most likely to be ultimately observed in binary neutron star mergers due to their relatively large coupling and shared frequencies with tidal excitations. The 𝑓-mode frequency and damping time are known to correlate in normal neutron stars with their compactness, and previous fits to hadronic stars are extended and shown to be valid for an extremely broad sampling of equations of state using a piecewise polytropic parametrization scheme for hadrons and a constant sound-speed parametrization for quark matter. Separate fits applicable to quark (self-bound) stars are improved. Much more significant correlations exist with tidal deformability, and therefore with moment of inertia and quadrupole moment. It is conclusively demonstrated that these correlations are the same for all types of stars, whether hadronic, hybrid, or pure quark, and its accuracy is quantified. A novel 1-node branch of the 𝑓-mode that occurs in low-mass hybrid stars in a narrow mass range just beyond the critical mass necessary for a phase transition to appear is identified. This 1-node branch shows the largest, but still small, deviations from the universal correlation for any configuration. It is characterized by a nonmonotonic relation between neutron star mass and 𝑓-mode frequency, in contrast to the behavior otherwise observed in normal, quark and hybrid stars. The 𝑔-mode only exists in matter with a nonbarotropic equation of state involving temperature, chemical potential or composition (such as being out of beta equilibrium), or a phase transition in barotropic matter. Here, the 𝑔-mode therefore could serve as a probe for studying phase transitions in hybrid stars. In contrast with the 𝑓-mode, 𝑔-mode frequencies do not correlate well with tidal deformability, but depend strongly on properties of the transition (the density and the magnitude of the discontinuity) at the transition. Imposing causality and maximum mass constraints, a fit involving neutron star and phase transition properties is found and the 𝑔-mode frequency is determined to have an upper bound of about 1.25 kHz. However, if the sound speed 𝑐𝑠 in the inner core at densities above the phase transition density is restricted to 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ ≤1/3, 𝑔-mode frequencies can only reach about 0.8 kHz, which are significantly lower than 𝑓-mode frequencies (1.3–2.8 kHz). 𝑔-mode gravitational wave damping times are found to be extremely long, >10 4 s (102 s) in the inner core with 𝑐$^{2}_{𝑠}$ ≤1/3 (1), in comparison with 𝑓-mode damping times (0.1–1 s).

Composition of astronomical objects↗

Exact general solutions for cosmological scalar field evolution in a background-dominated expansion

We derive exact general solutions (as opposed to attractor particular solutions) and corresponding first integrals for the evolution of a scalar field $\phi$ in a universe dominated by a background fluid with equation of state parameter wB. In addition to the previously examined linear [V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$] and quadratic [V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ 2 ] potentials, we show that exact solutions exist for the power-law potential V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ n with n=4(1+w B )/(1-w B )+2 and n=2(1+w B )/(1-w B ). These correspond to the potentials V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ 6 and V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ 2 for matter domination and V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ 10 and V($\phi$)=V 0 $\phi$ 4 for radiation domination. The $\phi$ 6 and $\phi$ 10 potentials can yield either oscillatory or nonoscillatory evolution, and we use the first integrals to determine how the initial conditions map onto each form of evolution. The exponential potential yields an exact solution for a stiff/kination (w B =1) background. We use this exact solution to derive an analytic expression for the evolution of the equation of state parameter, $w_\phi$, for this case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward first principles-based simulations of dense hydrogen

Accurate knowledge of the properties of hydrogen at high compression is crucial for astrophysics (e.g., planetary and stellar interiors, brown dwarfs, atmosphere of compact stars) and laboratory experiments, including inertial confinement fusion. There exists experimental data for the equation of state, conductivity, and Thomson scattering spectra. However, the analysis of the measurements at extreme pressures and temperatures typically involves additional model assumptions, which makes it difficult to assess the accuracy of the experimental data rigorously. On the other hand, theory and modeling have produced extensive collections of data. They originate from a very large variety of models and simulations including path integral Monte Carlo (PIMC) simulations, density functional theory (DFT), chemical models, machine-learned models, and combinations thereof. At the same time, each of these methods has fundamental limitations (fermion sign problem in PIMC, approximate exchange–correlation functionals of DFT, inconsistent interaction energy contributions in chemical models, etc.), so for some parameter ranges accurate predictions are difficult. Recently, a number of breakthroughs in first principles PIMC as well as in DFT simulations were achieved which are discussed in this review. Here we use these results to benchmark different simulation methods. We present an update of the hydrogen phase diagram at high pressures, the expected phase transitions, and thermodynamic properties including the equation of state and momentum distribution. Furthermore, we discuss available dynamic results for warm dense hydrogen, including the conductivity, dynamic structure factor, plasmon dispersion, imaginary-time structure, and density response functions. We conclude by outlining strategies to combine different simulations to achieve accurate theoretical predictions that are based on first principles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Surfactant Facilitated Spreading of Aqueous Drops on Hydrophobic Surfaces

Microgravity technologies often require aqueous phases to spread over nonwetting hydrophobic solid surfaces. Surfactants facilitate the wetting of water on hydrophobic surfaces by adsorbing on the water/air and hydrophobic solid/water interfaces and lowering the surface tensions of these interfaces. The tension reductions decrease the contact angle, which increases the equilibrium wetted area. Hydrocarbon surfactants; (i.e., amphiphiles with a hydrophobic moiety consisting of an extended chain of (aliphatic) methylene -CH2- groups attached to a large polar group to give aqueous solubility) are capable of reducing the contact angles on surfaces which are not very hydrophobic, but do not reduce significantly the contact angles of the very hydrophobic surfaces such as parafilm, polyethylene or self assembled monolayers. Trisiloxane surfactants (amphiphiles with a hydrophobe consisting of methyl groups linked to a trisiloxane backbone in the form of a disk ((CH3)3-Si-O-Si-O-Si(CH3)3) and an extended ethoxylate (-(OCH2CH2)a-) polar group in the form of a chain with four or eight units) can significantly reduce the contact angle of water on a very hydrophobic surface and cause rapid and complete (or nearly complete) spreading (termed superspreading). The overall goal of the research described in this proposal is to establish and verify a theory for how trisiloxanes cause superspreading, and then use this knowledge as a guide to developing more general hydrocarbon based surfactant systems which superspread. We propose that the trisiloxane surfactants superspread because their structure allows them to strongly lower the high hydrophobic solid/aqueous tension when they adsorb to the solid surface. When the siloxane adsorbs, the hydrophobic disk parts of the molecule adsorb onto the surface removing the surface water. Since the cross-sectional area of the disk is larger than that of the extended ethoxylate chain, the disks can form a space-filling mat on the surface which removes a significant amount of the surface water. In this presentation, we report the results of measurements of the molecular packing and rates of kinetic exchange of the trisiloxane surfactants at the air/water interface in order to confirm our picture of trisiloxane packing, and provide additional insight into the superspreading process. We used the pendant bubble technique as a Langmuir trough to measure the trisiloxane equation of state which relates the tension to the surface concentration. From these measurements we obtain accurate values for the maximum packing density. We find that trisiloxanes with 4 and 8 ethoxylate groups have the same maximum packing concentration, indicating that the maximum packing is controlled by the cross section of the head group. For trisiloxanes with larger than eight ethoxylates, the maximum packing increases with ethoxylate number, indicating that the disposition of the ethoxylate chain (i.e., its effective size) is controlling. This supports our picture of superspreading: The superspreading ability of trisiloxanes decreases considerably for trisiloxanes with larger than eight ethoxylates; the packing measurements indicate that for the higher ethoxylate number trisiloxanes, the compact nonpolar head groups are pushed apart by the ethoxylate chain. They leave spaces of surface water on adsorption and do not lower the solid tension as much as their lower chain analogues. Finally the report measurements of the dynamic tension reduction accompanying the adsorption of trisiloxanes onto an initially clean interface using the pendant bubble technique, and we obtain from these relaxations, the equation of state and a mass transfer model, the rate constants for kinetic exchange. We find that the rate constants for desorption of trisiloxanes are generally much slower than for analogous aliphatic polyethoxylate surfactants with identical ethoxylate chain lengths. When an aqueous drop of a superspreader solution is placed on a hydrophobic surface and begins to spread, the lower desorption rates allows the tension at the drop center to remain reduced relative to the tension of the expanding periphery, thus strengthening Marangoni forces which can assist the spreading. Marangoni forces can be especially significant in the case of superspreaders because their maximum equilibrium reduction in tension is several dynes/cm lower than for aliphatic surfactants.

Kumar, Nitin↗

Progress report on analytic and numerical studies of x-ray-induced impulse

In a variety of high-energy-density (HED) systems, x-rays of a given energy are used to generate shockwaves, bulk motion, and impulse in materials. As radiation energy is deposited within the material, the material is heated. The number of photons of a certain wavelength absorbed is determined by the spectral intensity of the radiation and the material’s opacity evaluated at that wavelength. This heating results in a pressure increase dictated by the material’s equation of state. Depending on the intensity of the absorbed radiation, it may also cause the material to change phase into a liquid, gas, or plasma. The increased pressure drives the heated surface layer to blow off, imparting impulse and sending a compressive wave into the bulk of the material. Additionally, the compression wave interacts with the solid boundary of the material, resulting in a tensile wave that may cause the material to spall. The impulse generated by the deposition of x-ray energy within the sample can be modeled using purely analytical methods, e.g. the Bethe, Bade, Averell, and Yost (BBAY) model. However, the blow-off process is rather complicated, and proper modeling efforts must account for material ejected by spallation, vaporization, jetting, and plasma ablation. For this reason, analytical models have an unclosed term describing the final energy of the blown-off material Ef(z). Prior modeling efforts have arbitrarily fixed this at some value or modeled it using a limiting set of thermodynamic assumptions. The work we are currently performing uses validated simulations using sophisticated photon transport, equation of state, and strength models/data to provide a fit for Ef(z) that is useful for predictive calculation of impulse. We will apply our methodology and show results for different materials and x-ray sources. This work is particularly useful for the design of experiments studying x-ray impulse generation. The present report is outlined as follows. Section 1.2 describes a series of HED experiments investigating x-ray-generated impulse in materials. Section 1.3 describes the computational approach we employ in this study, and presents validation results against the aforementioned experiments. Section 1.4 introduces analytical models for impulse generation, as well as our method for utilizing impulse from simulations to close the models. We discuss the concept of impulse-spectrum sensitivity, it’s application to uncertainty quantification, and derive a very useful analytical expression for it in 1.5. We then summarize recent progress in this project and discuss future work in section 1.6.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Tethers as Debris: Simulating Impacts of Kevlar Tethers on Shuttle Tiles

In a previous paper I examined the effects of impacts of polymer tethers on aluminum plates using the SPHC hydrodynamic code. In this paper I apply tether models to a new target - models of Space Shuttle tiles developed during the STS 107 accident investigation. In this three-dimensional simulation, a short tether fragment strikes a single tile supported on an aluminum backing plate. A tile of the LI-900 material is modeled. Penetration and damage to the tile and the backwall are characterized for three normal impact velocities. The tether is modeled as a bundle of eight 1-mm strands, with the bundle having dimensions 2-mm x 4-mm x 20-cm. The bulk material properties used are those of Kevlar(TradeMark) 49, for which a Mie-Gruneisen multiphase equation of state (eos) is used. In addition, the strength model is applied in a linear sense, such that tensile loads along the strand length are supported, but there is no strength in the lateral directions. Tile models include the various layers making up the tile structure. The outermost layer is a relatively dense borosilicate glass, known as RCG, 0.5-mm thick. The RCG layer is present on the top and four sides of the tile. Below this coating is the bulk of the tile, 1.8- in thick, made of LI-900, a product consisting of rigidized fiberous silica with a density of 9 lWft3. Below the main insulating layer is a bottom layer of the same material that has been treated to increase its density by approximately 69% to improve its strength. This densified layer is bonded to a Strain Isolation Pad (SIP), modeled as a refractory felt fabric. The SIP is bonded to an aluminum 2024 wall 0.1-in thick. The tile and backwall materials use a Me-Gruneisen multiphase eos, with the exception of the SIP felt, which uses a fabric equation of state. Fabrics must be crushed to the full bulk material density before bulk material properties and a Mie-Gruneisen eos are applied. Tether fragment impact speeds of 3,7, and 10 km/s are simulated, with impact velocities normal to the tile face. Damage results are presented in tabular format.

Evans, Steven W.↗

Reverse phase transitions in binary neutron-star systems with exotic-matter cores

Multimessenger observations of binary neutron-star mergers provide a unique opportunity to constrain the dense-matter equation of state. Although it is known from quantum chromodynamics that hadronic matter will undergo a phase transition to exotic forms of matter—e.g., quark matter—the onset density of such a phase transition cannot be computed from first principles. Hence, it remains an open question if such phase transitions occur inside isolated neutron stars or during binary neutron-star mergers, or if they appear at even higher densities that are not realized in the cosmos. Here, in this article, we perform numerical relativity simulations of neutron-star mergers and investigate scenarios in which the onset density of such a phase transition is exceeded in at least one inspiraling binary component. Our simulations reveal that shortly before the merger, it is possible that such stars undergo a “reverse phase transition”—i.e., densities decrease and the quark core inside the star disappears, leaving a purely hadronic star at merger. After the merger, when densities increase once more, the phase transition occurs again and leads, in the cases considered in this work, to the rapid formation of a black hole. We compute the gravitational-wave signal and the mass ejection for our simulations of such scenarios and find clear signatures that are related to the postmerger phase transition—e.g., smaller ejecta masses due to the softening of the equation of state through the quark core formation. Unfortunately, we do not find measurable imprints of the reverse phase transition.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmological Constraints from Gas Mass Fractions of Massive, Relaxed Galaxy Clusters

We present updated cosmological constraints from measurements of the gas mass fractions (f(gas)) of massive, dynamically relaxed galaxy clusters. Our new data set has greater leverage on models of dark energy, thanks to the addition of the Perseus cluster at low redshifts, two new clusters at redshifts z greater than or similar to 1, and significantly longer observations of four clusters at 0.6 < z < 0.9. Our low-redshift (z < 0.16) f(gas) data, combined with the cosmic baryon fraction measured from the cosmic microwave background (CMB), imply a Hubble constant of h = 0.722 +/- 0.067. Combining the full f(gas) data set with priors on the cosmic baryon density and the Hubble constant, we constrain the dark energy density to be Omega(Lambda) = 0.865 +/- 0.119 in non-flat Lambda cold dark matter (cosmological constant) models, and its equation of state to be in flat, constant-w models, respectively 41percent and 29percent tighter than our previous work, and comparable to the best constraints available from other probes. Combining f(gas), CMB, supernova, and baryon acoustic oscillation data, we also constrain models with global curvature and evolving dark energy. For the massive, relaxed clusters employed here, we find the scaling of f(gas) with mass to be consistent with a constant, with an intrinsic scatter that corresponds to just similar to 3percent in distance.

clusters: general – X-rays:↗

DESI 2024: Constraints on physics-focused aspects of dark energy using DESI DR1 BAO data

Baryon acoustic oscillation data from the first year of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide near percent-level precision of cosmic distances in seven bins over the redshift range z=0.1–4.2. Here, this paper is the follow-up to the original DESI BAO cosmology paper [A. G. Adame et al. (DESI Collaboration), arXiv:2404.03002], which considered the conventional w 0 w a cold dark matter (CDM) model. We use the novel DESI data, together with other cosmic probes, to constrain the background expansion history using some well-motivated physical classes of dark energy. In particular, we explore three physics-focused behaviors of dark energy from the equation of state and energy density perspectives: the thawing class (matching many simple quintessence potentials), emergent class (where dark energy comes into being recently, as in phase transition models), and mirage class [where phenomenologically the distance to cosmic microwave background (CMB) last scattering is close to that from a cosmological constant Λ despite dark energy dynamics]. All three classes fit the data at least as well as Λ ⁢CDM, and indeed can improve on it by Δ⁢χ 2 ≈ –5 to –17 for the combination of DESI BAO with CMB and supernova data while having one more parameter. The mirage class does essentially as well as w 0 ⁢w a CDM and exhibits moderate to strong Bayesian evidence preference with respect to Λ⁢ CDM. These classes of dynamical behaviors highlight worthwhile avenues for further exploration into the nature of dark energy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Potential Economic Values of Low-Vapor-Pressure Gasoline-Range Bio-Blendstocks: Property Estimation, and Blending Optimization

Adding non-traditional blendstocks derived from biomass into gasoline has gained renewed interest since it will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and potentially enhance fuel properties and boost engine efficiencies. A competitive bio-blendstock candidate should have either lower prices or superior properties or both relative to conventional gasoline blending components. Gasoline is a mixture of hundreds compounds specified by properties rather than compositions. The addition of bio-blendstocks, most likely oxygenates, will modify the property mixing rules due to the non-ideal interactions between polar and nonpolar components. This paper presents an equation-of-state-based model for predicting Reid vapor pressure, reduced order non-linear property blending models for computing key properties of final gasoline products, and a blending optimization approach to identify key economic drivers. This paper also evaluates the economic values of bio-blendstocks to petroleum refiners using those models. In additional to ethanol, six low-vapor-pressure bio-blendstock candidates were evaluated: i-propanol, n-propanol, i-butanol, diisobutylene, cyclopentanone, and a mixture of furans. Reid vapor pressure, distillation temperatures, and octane numbers were identified as the key economic drivers of adding bio-blendstock. The economic values of those bio-blendstocks range from 2.22 to 4.00 US dollar per gasoline gallon equivalent in 2013 to 2017 5-year averaged price basis. The bio-blendstocks with higher octane numbers may have higher economic values. The uncertainties in property predictions may lead to roughly 15% deviation in the economic value evaluation.

Jiang, Yuan↗