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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Aware Deep Learning for Fault Prediction Using Multivariate Time Series Signals

The superconducting radio-frequency cavities are a crucial component of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at Jefferson Lab. When a cavity faults, beam delivery to experimental end users is disrupted. Prediction of cavity faults prior to onset is essential to reduce operation and maintenance costs. In this work, a parallel long short-term memory (LSTM)-convolution neural network (CNN)-based deep learning (DL) model is proposed to predict impending faults using pre-fault signals. Further, we introduce an uncertainty quantification approach using Monte Carlo dropout with the LSTM-CNN model to ascertain confidence in the prediction. The model was tested using multivariate time series signals from stable cavity operations and before faults. Initial results show that on the test dataset, the model can identify impending faults before their onset with an average 10-fold cross validation accuracy of 97.39% and a standard deviation of 0.12% using a 100-ms time window. It is also observed that the model performs better as the prediction time moves closer to the fault onset. For additional context, we compare the performance of the model with three machine-learning-based (ML) fault prediction models. Our proposed parallel LSTM-CNN-based DL method shows better performance than the ML-based methods.

Rahman, Md Monibor↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting the propensity for thermally activated β events in metallic glasses via interpretable machine learning

Abstract The elementary excitations in metallic glasses (MGs), i.e., β processes that involve hopping between nearby sub-basins, underlie many unusual properties of the amorphous alloys. A high-efficacy prediction of the propensity for those activated processes from solely the atomic positions, however, has remained a daunting challenge. Recently, employing well-designed site environment descriptors and machine learning (ML), notable progress has been made in predicting the propensity for stress-activated β processes (i.e., shear transformations) from the static structure. However, the complex tensorial stress field and direction-dependent activation could induce non-trivial noises in the data, limiting the accuracy of the structure-property mapping learned. Here, we focus on the thermally activated elementary excitations and generate high-quality data in several Cu-Zr MGs, allowing quantitative mapping of the potential energy landscape. After fingerprinting the atomic environment with short- and medium-range interstice distribution, ML can identify the atoms with strong resistance or high compliance to thermal activation, at a high accuracy over ML models for stress-driven activation events. Interestingly, a quantitative “between-task” transferring test reveals that our learnt model can also generalize to predict the propensity of shear transformation. Our dataset is potentially useful for benchmarking future ML models on structure-property relationships in MGs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine-Learning Assisted Identification of Battery Life Models

Predictive battery life models are commonly utilized to extrapolate degradation trends observed during accelerated aging tests for simulation of degradation in real-world applications. Thus, fitting accelerated aging data as accurately as possible and with low uncertainty is crucial for making believable projections of battery lifetime, but it is challenging to identify algebraic expressions that accurately fit multivariate degradation trends. A review of models published in literature reveal some common expressions for fitting calendar aging data, which is only dependent on temperature and state-of-charge, but no consistency across many models for fitting cycle aging data, indicating the need for a statistically rigorous data driven approach for developing empirical models. This talk will describe a machine-learning assisted method for identification of predictive battery life models utilizing bilevel optimization and symbolic regression. Bilevel optimization with cross-validation is used to statistically determine cell- and stress-dependent model parameters, while symbolic regression identifies both linear and multiplicative candidate expressions to predict stress-dependent degradation rates by selecting low-order subsets of features from a generated feature library. Because model expressions are identified empirically, it is crucial to ensure resulting models behave according to physical expectations, so the stability of models for interpolation or extrapolation is interrogated qualitatively through simulation and quantitatively through cross-validation and uncertainty quantification via bootstrap resampling. This model identification approach substantially improves upon models identified purely using expert judgement in terms of both accuracy and uncertainty. Model simulation and validation is then conducted by deriving a state-equation form of the predictive model, enabling simulation of battery aging under dynamic stresses. This enables validation of the predictive battery model on lab-based tests with varying conditions or on drive-cycle or application-cycle testing protocols. Parameter uncertainty can be carried forward into model simulation, giving lifetime estimates and confidence windows for cell- or system-level lifetime. The financial impact of battery model uncertainty can be estimated by incorporating uncertainty into a technoeconomic model.

battery↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics for machine tool: Modeling, analysis and algorithms

Machining dynamics research lays a solid foundation for machining operations by providing stable combinations of spindle speed and depth of cut. Furthermore, machine learning has been applied to predict tool life as a function of cutting speed. However, the existing research does not consider the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop, i.e., the machine tool needs to process a series of parts in queue under various practical production requirements. This paper addresses the integration of discrete-event dynamics and machining dynamics to achieve cost savings in machining. A learning-based cost function is first proposed for the studied integrated optimization problem of machine tool. The proposed cost function utilizes the predicted tool life under different stable cutting speeds for further optimizing speed selection of machine tool to deal with the discrete-event dynamics in machine shop. Then, according to the practical production requirements, effective mathematical optimization models are developed for the related integrated optimization problems with the consideration of cost, makespan and due date, respectively. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our proposed methods and also the potential to be used in practice.

Ma, Mason↗

DOE OSTI2024

Part-scale microstructure prediction for laser powder bed fusion Ti-6Al-4V using a hybrid mechanistic and machine learning model

Laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) Ti-6Al-4V is widely studied for use in structural applications in aerospace and medical industries, but mechanical anisotropy and microstructural inhomogeneity prohibits its wider adoption. Although successful microstructure prediction models have been developed, a remaining challenge is their limited integration across length/time scales and validation by experimental studies. Here, this work proposes a physics-augmented machine learning surrogate model to unite predictions of LPBF temperature, β phase morphology and texture, and α/α’ formation into a single framework that is calibrated and validated with experiments. First, a phase field (PF) model of the martensitic β→α’ transformation is developed and calibrated using data from in-situ synchrotron cyclic heating/cooling studies quantifying the variation of α phase fraction with time. In parallel, an established finite difference-Monte Carlo (FDMC) model predicts the part-scale temperature profile and β grain formation during solidification. A dataset is developed using LPBF cyclic temperature descriptors from the FDMC model as inputs and corresponding α/α’ phase fraction and width from the PF model as outputs. Five machine learning (ML) regression models are tested and optimized, having mean absolute error in testing ≤ 4 %, and the k-nearest neighbors (KNN) model is selected as the best performing. The KNN model is called at the nodal level during post-processing of the FDMC model to replace and downscale the response of the PF model. The combined agility and accuracy of the hybrid FDMC-ML model enables part-scale microstructure predictions that can be further used for property predictions to accelerate AM process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Failure Using Deep Learning SAND Report

Accurate prediction of ductile failure is critical to Sandia’s NW mission, but the models are computationally heavy. The costs of including high-fidelity physics and mechanics that are germane to the failure mechanisms are often too burdensome for analysts either because of the person-hours it requires to input them or because of the additional computational time, or both. In an effort to deliver analysts a tool for representing these phenomena with minimal impact to their existing workflow, our project sought to develop modern data-driven methods that would add microstructural information to business-as-usual calculations and expedite failure predictions. The goal is a tool that receives as input a structural model with stress and strain fields, as well as a machine-learned model, and output predictions of structural response in time, including failure. As such, our project spent substantial time performing high-fidelity, three-dimensional experiments to elucidate materials mechanisms of void nucleation and evolution. We developed crystal-plasticity finite-element models from the experimental observations to enrich the findings with fields not readily measured. We developed engineering length-scale simulations of replicated test specimens to understand how the engineering fields evolve in the presence of fine-scale defects. Finally, we developed deep learning convolutional neural networks, and graph-based neural networks to encode the findings of the experiments and simulations and make forward predictions in time for structural performance. This project demonstrated the power of data-driven methods for model development, which have the potential to vastly increase both the accuracy and speed of failure predictions. These benefits and the methods necessary to develop them are highlighted in this report. However, many challenges remain to implementing these in real applications, and these are discussed along with potential methods for overcoming them.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting oxidation damage of ultra high-temperature carbide ceramics in extreme environments using machine learning

Determining the oxidation resistance of UHTC carbides in extreme environments is challenging theoretically and experimentally due to the high dimensional complexity of influencing variables and intricate testing setups. Herein we demonstrate the use of machine learning (ML) models trained with experimental literature data to predict the oxide thickness of UHTC carbides exposed to air based on composition, mean grain size, relative densification, holding time, and temperature. A multi-dimensional database with 76 occurrences is created containing experimental results of Hf, Zr, and Ta carbides plus additives. In this study, the preprocessed database is then used to train ML models to predict their oxidation behavior. The trained model predicts the oxidation damage in the form of an average oxide thickness in UHTC carbides with a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of ±65.45 μm for samples in the testing set that developed thicknesses up to 1000 μm. The model successfully predicted oxidation damage for a recession rate lower than 60 μm/min. It is noticed that the ensemble method MAE is increased to ±134.34 μm while forecasting the oxidation of samples with a recession rate higher than the threshold. The unprecedented approach is a novel way to predict the damage through the oxidation of carbide compounds before processing for a smarter design with room for improvement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predictive Inverse Model for Advective Heat Transfer in a Short–Circuited Fracture: Dimensional Analysis, Machine Learning, and Field Demonstration

Identifying fluid flow maldistribution in planar geometries is a well–established problem in subsurface science/engineering. Of particular importance to the thermal performance of enhanced (or “engineered”) geothermal systems is identifying the existence of nonuniform (i.e., heterogeneous) permeability and subsequently predicting advective heat transfer. Here, machine learning via a genetic algorithm (GA) identifies the spatial distribution of an unknown permeability field in a two–dimensional Hele–Shaw geometry (i.e., parallel plates). The inverse problem is solved by minimizing the L2 norm between simulated residence time distribution (RTD) and measurements of an inert tracer breakthrough curve (BTC) (C–Dot nanoparticle). Principal component analysis (PCA) of spatially correlated permeability fields enabled reduction of the parameter space by more than a factor of 10 and restricted the inverse search to reservoir–scale permeability variations. Thermal experiments and tracer tests conducted at the mesoscale Altona Field Laboratory (AFL) demonstrate that the method accurately predicts the effects of extreme flow channeling on heat transfer in a single bedding–plane rock fracture. However, this is only true when the permeability distributions provide adequate matches to both tracer RTD and frictional pressure loss. Without good agreement to frictional pressure loss, it is still possible to match a simulated RTD to measurements, but subsequent predictions of heat transfer are grossly inaccurate. Here, the results of this study suggest that it is possible to anticipate the thermal effects of flow maldistribution, but only if both simulated RTDs and frictional pressure loss between fluid inlets and outlets are in good agreement with measurements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting Catalyst Surface Stability Under Reaction Conditions Using Deep Reinforcement Learning and Machine Learning Potentials

Catalysts are critical for most large-scale energy intensive chemical transformation processes, such as energy storage, liquid fuel production, and the formation of chemical building blocks. The catalyst composition, structure, and morphology impact the performance under reaction conditions and influences properties like activity and selectivity. Many industrial catalysts offer imperfect activity/selectivity, or contain expensive metals. Further, catalysts can deactivate over time as the morphology changes or harsh reactive environments alter the surface structure. Methods to automatically model and predict the kinetics of how catalyst surfaces will restructure would enable engineers to design around these challenges, improve performance, increase longevity. This project investigated a specific type of machine learning model, deep reinforcement learning, machine learning models to act as surrogates for the physical system, and compared the results of these approaches with a specialized high-throughput experimental synthesis and measurement platform.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning application to single channel design of molten salt reactor

This study proposes a robust approach to quickly design a nuclear reactor core and explores the best performing machine learning (ML) technique for predicting feature parameters of the core. Here we implemented the approach into a hypothetical channel of molten salt reactors to demonstrate the applicability of the method. We prepared a Python tool, named Plankton, which couples to a reactor physics code and an optimization tool, and imports ML methods. The tool performs three consecutive phases: reactor database generation, machine learning application, and design optimization. We identified the extra trees method as the best performing estimator. With the estimator, we found nine optimum designs in total, one for each fuel-salt pair, and estimated all the performance metrics of the designs with a <5% prediction error compared to their actual values. U-Pu-NaCl fuel-salt gave promising results with the highest conversion ratio, the most negative feedback coefficient, and the lowest fast flux.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system

The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Smart detection of indoor occupant thermal state via infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning

The ability to measure occupants’ thermal state in real time will enable major advances in the control of air conditioning systems. This study proposes predicting occupant thermal state by a combination of infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning. The approach (1) uses cheek, nose, and hand temperatures because they are least subject to blockage by hair, glasses, and clothing; (2) measures the distribution of skin temperatures within geometrically defined sub-areas of the face and hand; and (3) uses temperature differences within and between these areas to eliminate the effects of calibration drift that are unavoidable in thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. Two series of tests were conducted, respectively in an outdoor carport and an indoor environmental chamber, collecting a total of 48,422 sets of cheek, nose, and hand skin temperatures using a TIR camera and computer-vision technology, coupled with 715 subjective responses of thermal sensations. To predict occupant thermal state, Random Forest classification models were built using either absolute skin temperatures (the maximum and median temperatures of cheek and hand segments, and the temperature of the central spot on the nose), or intra- and inter-segment temperature differences of cheeks, hands, and nose. These measurements were found to accurately predict occupant thermal state. Using the maximum and median temperatures for cheek and nose, or for cheek and hand, predicts thermal state with an accuracy of 92–96%. In conclusion, using only the intra- and inter-segment temperature differences from cheek and nose is 83% accurate; adding the hand temperature differences increases the accuracy to 96%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Enabling integrated AI control on DIII-D: a control system design with state-of-the-art experiments

We present the design and application of a general algorithm for Prediction And Control using MAchiNe learning (PACMAN) in DIII-D. Machine learning (ML)-based predictors and controllers have shown great promise in achieving regimes in which traditional controllers fail, such as tearing mode (TM) free scenarios, ELM-free scenarios and stable advanced tokamak conditions. The architecture presented here was deployed on DIII-D to facilitate the end-to-end implementation of advanced control experiments, from diagnostic processing to final actuation commands. This paper describes the detailed design of the algorithm and explains the motivation behind each design point. We also describe several successful ML control experiments in DIII-D using this algorithm, including a reinforcement learning controller targeting advanced non-inductive plasmas, a wide-pedestal quiescent H-mode ELM predictor, an Alfvén Eigenmode controller, a Model Predictive Control plasma profile controller and a state-machine TM predictor-controller. There is also discussion on guiding principles for real-time ML controller design and implementation.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning with mixup augmentation for improved pore detection during additive manufacturing

In additive manufacturing (AM), process defects such as keyhole pores are difficult to anticipate, affecting the quality and integrity of the AM-produced materials. Hence, considerable efforts have aimed to predict these process defects by training machine learning (ML) models using passive measurements such as acoustic emissions. This work considered a dataset in which keyhole pores of a laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) experiment were identified using X-ray radiography and then registered both in space and time to acoustic measurements recorded during the LPBF experiment. Due to AM’s intrinsic process controls, where a pore-forming event is relatively rare, the acoustic datasets collected during monitoring include more non-pores than pores. In other words, the dataset for ML model development is imbalanced. Moreover, this imbalanced and sparse data phenomenon remains ubiquitous across many AM monitoring schemes since training data is nontrivial to collect. Hence, we propose a machine learning approach to improve this dataset imbalance and enhance the prediction accuracy of pore-labeled data. Specifically, we investigate how data augmentation helps predict pores and non-pores better. This imbalance is improved using recent advances in data augmentation called Mixup, a weak-supervised learning method. Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are trained on original and augmented datasets, and an appreciable increase in performance is reported when testing on five different experimental trials. When ML models are trained on original and augmented datasets, they achieve an accuracy of 95% and 99% on test datasets, respectively. We also provide information on how dataset size affects model performance. Lastly, we investigate the optimal Mixup parameters for augmentation in the context of CNN performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep learning with mixup augmentation for improved pore detection during additive manufacturing

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Barium stars as tracers of s -process nucleosynthesis in AGB stars: II. Using machine learning techniques on 169 stars

Barium (Ba) stars are characterised by an abundance of heavy elements made by the slow neutron capture process (s-process). This peculiar observed signature is due to the mass transfer from a stellar companion, bound in a binary stellar system, to the Ba star observed today. The signature is created when the stellar companion is an asymptotic giant branch (AGB) star. We aim to analyse the abundance pattern of 169 Ba stars using machine learning techniques and the AGB final surface abundances predicted by the FRUITY and Monash stellar models. We developed machine learning algorithms that use the abundance pattern of Ba stars as input to classify the initial mass and metallicity of each Ba star’s companion star using stellar model predictions. We used two algorithms. The first exploits neural networks to recognise patterns, and the second is a nearest-neighbour algorithm that focuses on finding the AGB model that predicts the final surface abundances closest to the observed Ba star values. In the second algorithm, we included the error bars and observational uncertainties in order to find the best-fit model. The classification process was based on the abundances of Fe, Rb, Sr, Zr, Ru, Nd, Ce, Sm, and Eu. We selected these elements by systematically removing s-process elements from our AGB model abundance distributions and identifying the elements whose removal had the biggest positive effect on the classification. We excluded Nb, Y, Mo, and La. Our final classification combined the output of both algorithms to identify an initial mass and metallicity range for each Ba star companion. With our analysis tools, we identified the main properties for 166 of the 169 Ba stars in the stellar sample. The classifications based on both stellar sets of AGB final abundances show similar distributions, with an average initial mass of M = 2.23 M ⊙ and 2.34 M ⊙ and an average [Fe/H] = –0.21 and –0.11, respectively. We investigated why the removal of Nb, Y, Mo, and La improves our classification and identified 43 stars for which the exclusion had the biggest effect. We found that these stars have statistically significant and different abundances for these elements compared to the other Ba stars in our sample. We discuss the possible reasons for these differences in the abundance patterns.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting Biomass Yields of Advanced Switchgrass Cultivars for Bioenergy and Ecosystem Services Using Machine Learning

The production of advanced perennial bioenergy crops within marginal areas of the agricultural landscape is gaining interest due to its potential to sustainably produce feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts while also improving the sustainability and resilience of commodity crop production. However, predicting the biomass yields of this production system is challenging because marginal areas are often relatively small and spread around agricultural fields and are typically associated with various abiotic conditions that limit crop production. Machine learning (ML) offers a viable solution as a biomass yield prediction tool because it is suited to predicting relationships with complex functional associations. The objectives of this study were to (1) evaluate the accuracy of commonly applied ML algorithms in agricultural applications for predicting the biomass yields of advanced switchgrass cultivars for bioenergy and ecosystem services and (2) determine the most important biomass yield predictors. Datasets on biomass yield, weather, land marginality, soil properties, and agronomic management were generated from three field study sites in two U.S. Midwest states (Illinois and Iowa) over three growing seasons. The ML algorithms evaluated in the study included random forests (RFs), gradient boosting machines (GBMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), K-neighbors regressor (KNR), AdaBoost regressor (ABR), and partial least squares regression (PLSR). Coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and mean absolute error (MAE) were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the tested algorithms. Results showed that the ensemble methods, RF (R 2 = 0.86, MAE = 0.62 Mg/ha), GBM (R 2 = 0.88, MAE = 0.57 Mg/ha), and GBM (R 2 = 0.78, MAE = 0.66 Mg/ha), were the most accurate in predicting biomass yields of the Independence, Liberty, and Shawnee switchgrass cultivars, respectively. This is in agreement with similar studies that apply ML to multi-feature problems where traditional statistical methods are less applicable and datasets used were considered to be relatively small for ANNs. Consistent with previous studies on switchgrass, the most important predictors of biomass yield included average annual temperature, average growing season temperature, sum of the growing season precipitation, field slope, and elevation. This study helps pave the way for applying ML as a management tool for alternative bioenergy landscapes where understanding agronomic and environmental performance of a multifunctional cropping system seasonally and interannually at the sub-field scale is critical.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗