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NASA NTRS2018

The Salinity Retrieval Algorithms for the NASA Aquarius Version 5 and SMAP Version 3 Releases

The Aquarius end-of-mission (Version 5) salinity data set was released in December 2017. This article gives a comprehensive overview of the main steps of the Level 2 salinity retrieval algorithm. In particular, we will discuss the corrections for wind induced surface roughness, atmospheric oxygen absorption, reflected galactic radiation and side-lobe intrusion from land surfaces. Most of these corrections have undergone major updates from previous versions, which has helped mitigating temporal and zonal biases. Our article also discusses the ocean target calibration for Aquarius Version 5. We show how formal error estimates for the Aquarius retrievals can be obtained by perturbing the input to the algorithm. The performance of the Aquarius Version 5 salinity retrievals is evaluated against salinity measurements from the ARGO network and the HYCOM model. When stratified as function of sea surface temperature or sea surface wind speed, the difference between Aquarius Version 5 and ARGO is within +/-0.1 psu. The estimated global RMS uncertainty for monthly 100 km averages is 0.128 psu for the Aquarius Version 5 retrievals. Finally, we show how the Aquarius Version 5 salinity retrieval algorithm is adapted to retrieve salinity from the Soil-Moisture Active Passion (SMAP) mission.

retrieval algorithm↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Salinity Retrieval Algorithms for the NASA Aquarius Version 5 and SMAP Version 3 Releases

The Aquarius end-of-mission (Version 5) salinity data set was released in December 2017. This article gives a comprehensive overview of the main steps of the Level 2 salinity retrieval algorithm. In particular, we will discuss the corrections for wind induced surface roughness, atmospheric oxygen absorption, reflected galactic radiation and side-lobe intrusion from land surfaces. Most of these corrections have undergone major updates from previous versions, which has helped mitigating temporal and zonal biases. Our article also discusses the ocean target calibration for Aquarius Version 5. We show how formal error estimates for the Aquarius retrievals can be obtained by perturbing the input to the algorithm. The performance of the Aquarius Version 5 salinity retrievals is evaluated against salinity measurements from the ARGO network and the HYCOM model. When stratified as function of sea surface temperature or sea surface wind speed, the difference between Aquarius Version 5 and ARGO is within +-0.1 psu. The estimated global RMS uncertainty for monthly 100 km averages is 0.128 psu for the Aquarius Version 5 retrievals. Finally, we show how the Aquarius Version 5 salinity retrieval algorithm is adapted to retrieve salinity from the Soil-Moisture Active Passion (SMAP) mission.

calibration↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2015

Measuring and Modeling Shared Visual Attention

Multi-person teams are sometimes responsible for critical tasks, such as flying an airliner. Here we present a method using gaze tracking data to assess shared visual attention, a term we use to describe the situation where team members are attending to a common set of elements in the environment. Gaze data are quantized with respect to a set of N areas of interest (AOIs); these are then used to construct a time series of N dimensional vectors, with each vector component representing one of the AOIs, all set to 0 except for the component corresponding to the currently fixated AOI, which is set to 1. The resulting sequence of vectors can be averaged in time, with the result that each vector component represents the proportion of time that the corresponding AOI was fixated within the given time interval.We present two methods for comparing sequences of this sort, one based on computing the time varying correlation of the averaged vectors, and another based on a chi-square test testing the hypothesis that the observed gaze proportions are drawn from identical probability distributions.We have evaluated the method using synthetic data sets, in which the behavior was modeled as a series of activities, each of which was modeled as a first-order Markov process. By tabulating distributions for pairs of identical and disparate activities, we are able to perform a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, allowing us to choose appropriate criteria and estimate error rates. Using these criteria, we have applied the methods to data from airline crews, collected in a high-fidelity flight simulator (Gontar Hoermann, 2014). We conclude by considering the problem of automatic (blind) discovery of activities, using methods developed for text analysis.

Mulligan, Jeffrey B.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. Laminar flow over a delta wing and turbulent flow over an ONERA M6 wing are verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and a moment. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. The wing adaptation cases in the current study document a clear improvement to existing grid adaptation procedures. The stage is set for the infusion of verified grid adaptation into production fluid flow simulations.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Geometry Modeling for Unstructured Mesh Adaptation

The quantification and control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Adaptive mesh techniques have the potential to automate discretization error control, but have made limited impact on production analysis workflow. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. However, the poor integration of initial mesh generation and adaptive mesh mechanics to typical sources of geometry has hindered adoption of adaptive mesh techniques, where these geometries are often created in Mechanical Computer- Aided Design (MCAD) systems. The difficulty of this coupling is compounded by two factors: the inherent complexity of the model (e.g., large range of scales, bodies in proximity, details not required for analysis) and unintended geometry construction artifacts (e.g., translation, uneven parameterization, degeneracy, self-intersection, sliver faces, gaps, large tolerances be- tween topological elements, local high curvature to enforce continuity). Manual preparation of geometry is commonly employed to enable fixed-grid and adaptive-grid workflows by reducing the severity and negative impacts of these construction artifacts, but manual process interaction inhibits workflow automation. Techniques to permit the use of complex geometry models and reduce the impact of geometry construction artifacts on unstructured grid workflows are models from the AIAA Sonic Boom and High Lift Prediction are shown to demonstrate the utility of the current approach.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Verification of Unstructured Grid Adaptation Components

Adaptive unstructured grid techniques have made limited impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic grid adaptation mechanics. Known differences and previously unknown differences in grid adaptation components and their integrated processes are identified here for study. Unstructured grid adaptation tools are verified using analytic functions and the Code Comparison Principle. Three analytic functions with different smoothness properties are adapted to show the impact of smoothness on implementation differences. A scalar advection-diffusion problem with an analytic solution that models a boundary layer is adapted to test individual grid adaptation components. The scalar problems illustrate known differences in a grid adaptation component implementation and a previously unknown interaction between components. Laminar flow over a delta wing is verified with multiple, independent grid adaptation procedures to show consistent convergence to fine-grid forces and pitching moment.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Surrogate Modeling and Optimization of a Combustor with an Interdigitated Flushwall Injector

Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE) methods are applied and used to perform surrogate modeling and optimization of a simplified combustor flowpath with an interdigitated flushwall injector. The objectives of the optimization are the thrust potential and combustion efficiency, which are evaluated across a range of flight Mach numbers, duct heights, spanwise spacings, and injection angles. The focus of this work is to highlight the application of a sequential learning approach, in order to learn about the responses of the objective functions over the design space and to identify local regions of interest for further analysis. This approach is contrasted to a previous effort where only a single sampling set was used to fit surrogate models and perform optimization. The optimal solutions resulting from the previous and present approaches are different, due to surrogate model-guided local refinement of the design space allowed by the sequential learning method. The values of the global error estimates between the previous and present approaches are comparable, but the sequential method proved more computationally cost-effective. Further refinement in the optimal regions might be needed to improve predictive capability of surrogate models and to obtain the optimal solutions sets.

Rajiv R Shenoy↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Verification of Viscous Goal-Based Anisotropic Mesh Adaptation

Adaptive unstructured mesh techniques have a limited, but growing impact on production analysis workflows where the control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results. Recent progress has matured a number of independent implementations of flow solvers, error estimation methods, and anisotropic mesh adaptation mechanics. Anisotropic metric construction methods are evaluated with analytically defined primal and adjoint fields. This allows the comparison of different metric formulations and different implementations of the same formulation without the complications of a flow and adjoint solution method. Unstructured mesh adaptation tools are verified by comparison on analytic primal and dual field before verification on benchmark aerodynamics cases. The documentation of these verification exercises helps to prepare these goal-based methods for routine use in production simulation workflows.

Mesh adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2021

Sequential Wald Test Employing a Constrained Filter Bank: Application to Spacecraft Conjunctions

A binary Wald sequential probability ratio test that uses the residuals of norm-inequality-constrained Kalman filters for its likelihood ratio may be employed for a class of compound hypothesis tests on non-stationary systems. The hypotheses concern an inequality constraint on the norm of some elements of the system state. Each of two filters minimizes the summed-squares of its estimation errors subject to one or the other direction of the inequality constraint. This solution is motivated by the problem of satellite conjunction assessment, wherein the constraint concerns the close approach distance between two space objects. The outcome of the test can inform decisions concerning risk mitigation maneuvers.

J. Russell Carpenter↗
NASA NTRS2020

FUN3D Manual: 13.7

This manual describes the installation and execution of FUN3D version 13.7, including optional dependent packages. FUN3D is a suite of computational fluid dynamics simulation and design tools that uses mixed-element unstructured grids in a large number of formats, including structured multiblock and overset grid systems. A discretely-exact adjoint solver may be used for formal design optimization, error estimation, and mesh adaptation. FUN3D also offers a reacting, real-gas capability and provides GPU acceleration of many common simulation options.

FUN3D↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cartesian Mesh Simulations for the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop

Simulation results are presented for all cases from the Third AIAA Sonic Boom Prediction Workshop. An inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver is used in conjunction with adjoint-based mesh adaptation to compute nearfield pressure signatures. Specialized techniques are applied to maximize accuracy and minimize cost on Cartesian meshes. The Richardson-based error estimate highlights regions of the signatures most sensitive to mesh refinement. Timing results and coarse, medium, and fine mesh sizes for nearfield cases demonstrate that the parallel decomposition approach is efficient in both computational time and wall-clock. Pressure signals are propagated to the ground using an augmented Burgers’ equation solver to predict boom carpets. Ground signatures and loudness metrics are presented for a standard atmosphere as well as more realistic atmospheric profiles, which affect overall noise levels and can significantly widen the boom carpet. Mesh convergence studies show that high sampling frequencies, around 500 kHz, are required for propagation, and the sampling frequency increases at large off-track angles with longer acoustic ray paths and propagation times. The numerical methods yield accurate results for predicting low sonic boom signatures while being among the least computationally expensive of the workshop.

ARMD↗
NASA NTRS2021

Retrieval of Stratospheric Aerosol Size Distribution Parameters Using Satellite Solar Occultation Measurements at Three Wavelengths

In this work, a novel approach for the determination of the particle size distribution (PSD) parameters of stratospheric sulfate aerosols is presented. For this, ratios of extinction coefficients obtained from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station) solar occultation measurements at 449, 756 and 1544 nm were used to retrieve the mode width and median radius of a size distribution assumed to be monomodal lognormal. The estimated errors at the peak of the stratospheric aerosol layer, on average, lie between 20% and 25% for the median radius and 5% and 7% for the mode width. The results are consistent in magnitude with other retrieval results from the literature, but a robust comparison is difficult, mainly because of differences in temporal and spatial coverage. Other quantities like number density and effective radius were also calculated. A major advantage of the described method over other retrieval techniques is that both the median radius and the mode width can be retrieved simultaneously, without having to assume one of them. This is possible due to the broad wavelength spectrum covered by the SAGE III/ISS measurements. Also, the presented method – being based on the analysis of three wavelengths – allows unique solutions for the retrieval of PSD parameters for almost all of the observed extinction spectra, which is not the case when using only two spectral channels. In addition, the extinction coefficients from SAGE III/ISS solar occultation measurements, on which the retrieval is based, are calculated without a priori assumptions about the PSD. For those reasons, the data produced with the presented retrieval technique may be a valuable contribution for a better understanding of the variability of stratospheric aerosol size distributions, e.g. after volcanic eruptions. While this study focuses on describing the retrieval method, and a future study will discuss the PSD parameter data set produced in depth, some exemplary results for background conditions in June 2017 are shown.

Felix Wrana↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Influence of Adaptive Mesh Refinement on the Prediction of Vortex Interactions about a Generic Missile Airframe

The complex interaction of forebody and wing vortices significantly impacts missile aerodynamics. The formation of these vortices involves smooth regions of the geometry or geometric discontinuities like leading edges, trailing edges, tips, and corners. Regions of supersonic flow and complex shock topologies interact with boundary layers and vortices. Smooth-body separation and 3D viscous effects strain current Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) techniques. The quantification and control of discretization error is critical to obtaining reliable simulation results and often turbulence model assessments are made in the presence of unquantified (and potentially large) discretization errors. Two mesh adaptation schemes are applied to steady RANS simulations. Multiscale unstructured mesh adaptation is applied to control interpolation error estimates of the Mach field, which resolves boundary layers, vortices, and shocks. A dual-mesh approach with overset communication is applied between an expert-crafted near-body unstructured mesh and an adaptive off-body Cartesian mesh refined with Q-criterion scaled by the strain tensor magnitude. A generic missile configuration is examined in a supersonic flow field to show the interaction of mesh adaptation and turbulence model. Turbulence model modifications for rotational correction and a quadratic constitutive relationship show a strong influence on adaptive mesh refinement and predicted rolling moment.

slender body aerodynamics↗
NASA NTRS2022

Tracking Coastal Change in American Samoa By Mapping Local Vertical Land Motion with PS-InSAR

Characterizingdiverse contributionsto coastal land change is a key step to mitigating the effects ofrising sea levels that threaten coastal communities. This taskis particularly critical for small island communities in tectonically active regions, which are highlyvulnerableto the effects of sea level rise. We highlight here a case study to extract regional estimates of vertical land motion (VLM) over American Samoa, which in recent years has observedincreased nuisance flooding.Weusedpersistent scatterer Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (PS-InSAR)to derive high-resolutionestimates of crustaldeformationinpopulated regions overTutuila Island from 2015 to 2021. While the area is small and highly vegetatedand poses challenges for InSAR, we wereable to construct a regional map of the estimated deformation ratein these areasandvalidate the time-series with alocal GPS station. Our preliminary results suggest that PS-InSAR has the ability to capture the local and regional deformation patterns, although further workis needed to compensate formore complexatmospheric effects, estimate error margins,and integrate ourresults intomodels of sea-level change that can be used local stakeholders

Stacey A Huang↗
NASA NTRS2022

FUN3D Manual: 14.0

This manual describes the installation and execution of FUN3D version 14.0,including optional dependent packages. FUN3D is a suite of computational fluid dynamics simulation and design tools that uses mixed-element unstructured grids in a large number of formats, including structured multiblock and overset grid systems. A discretely-exact adjoint solver may be used for for-mal design optimization, error estimation, and mesh adaptation. FUN3D also offers a reacting, real-gas capability and provides GPU acceleration of many common simulation options.1

William K Anderson↗
NASA NTRS2023

Extended Kalman Filter Performance on the Artemis-1 Mission

The Artemis Program is NASA’s campaign to explore the Moon and beyond. Artemis-1, the uncrewed exoLEO test flight of the Orion spacecraft, was completed in 2022. There were four navigation Extended Kalman Filters (EKFs) that are part of the Orion navigation system. The Atmospheric Extended Kalman Filter (ATMEKF) estimates the vehicle position, velocity, and attitude (referred to as the vehicle state) during the ascent and entry phases of flight. Once Orion is outside of Earths atmosphere, the Earth Orbit Extended Kalman Filter (EOEKF) and CisLunar Extended Kalman Filter (CLEKF) estimate the translational states, depending on the phase of flight, while the Attitude Extended Kalman Filter (ATTEKF) estimates the rotational state of the vehicle. The Kalman filters propagate the vehicle state forward in time using a combination of dynamics models and the output data from the Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU). The filters update the vehicle states and associated uncertainties, in the form of the covariance matrix, using pseudorange measurements from GPS (in ATMEKF/EOEKF), optical navigation measurements of the Earth or Moon (in CLEKF), and star tracker measurements (in ATTEKF). Simultaneously, the Kalman filters estimate error sources in the sensors, which are included in the state vectors as Exponentially Correlated Random Variables (ECRVs). This paper will summarize the performance of these filters during the Artemis-1 mission.

Artemis-1↗