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DOE OSTI2021

Hidden Processes During Seasonal Isolation of a High-Altitude Watershed

Biogeochemical processes capable of altering global carbon systems occur frequently in Earth’s Critical Zone–the area spanning from vegetation canopy to saturated bedrock–yet many of these phenomena are difficult to detect. Observation of these processes is limited by the seasonal inaccessibility of remote ecosystems, such as those in mountainous, snow- and ice-dominated areas. This isolation leads to a distinct gap in biogeochemical knowledge that ultimately affects the accuracy and confidence with which these ecosystems can be computationally modeled for the purpose of projecting change under different climate scenarios. To examine a high-altitude, headwater ecosystem’s role in methanogenesis, sulfate reduction, and groundwater-surface water exchange, water samples were continuously collected from the river and hyporheic zones (HZ) during winter isolation in the East River (ER), CO watershed. Measurements of continuously collected ER surface water revealed up to 50 μM levels of dissolved methane in July through September, while samples from 12 cm deep in the hyporheic zone at the same location showed a spring to early summer peak in methane with a strong biogenic signature (<65 μM, δ13C-CH4, -60.76‰) before declining. Continuously collected δ 18 O-H 2 O and δ 2 H-H 2 O isotopes from the water column exhibited similar patterns to discrete measurements, while samples 12 cm deep in the hyporheic zone experienced distinct fluctuations in δ 18 O-H 2 O, alluding to significant groundwater interactions. Continuously collected microbial communities in the river in the late fall and early winter revealed diverse populations that reflect the taxonomic composition of ecologically similar river systems, including taxa indicative of methane cycling in this system. These measurements captured several biogeochemical components of the high-altitude watershed in response to seasonality, strengthening our understanding of these systems during the winter months.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Abstract. Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Seasonal Atmospheric and Oceanic Predictions

Several projects associated with dynamical, statistical, single column, and ocean models are presented. The projects include: 1) Regional Climate Modeling; 2) Statistical Downscaling; 3) Evaluation of SCM and NSIPP AGCM Results at the ARM Program Sites; and 4) Ocean Forecasts.

Roads, John↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was established as the first project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCP-2) to collect and analyze satellite radiance measurements to infer the global distribution of cloud radiative properties and their diurnal and seasonal variations. The operational phase of ISCCP began in July 1983 and is currently planned to continue through June 2010. [Mission Objectives] To produce a global, reduced resolution, infrared and visible, calibrated and normalized radiance data set containing basic information on the radiative properties of the atmosphere from which cloud parameters can be derived. To stimulate and coordinate basic research on techniques for inferring the physical properties of clouds from the condensed radiance data set and to apply the resulting algorithms to derive and validate a global cloud climatology for improving the parameterization of clouds in climate models. To promote research using ISCCP data and contributing to improved understanding of the Earth's radiation budget (top of the atmosphere and surface) and hydrological cycle. [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1983-07-01; Stop_Date=] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180].

Rossow, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Evaluating the Capacity of Global CO2 Flux and Atmospheric Transport Models to Incorporate New Satellite Observations

As we enter the new era of satellite remote sensing for CO2 and other carbon cyclerelated quantities, advanced modeling and analysis capabilities are required to fully capitalize on the new observations. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. For application to current, planned, and future remotely sensed CO2 data, it is desirable that these models are accurate and unbiased at time scales from less than daily to multi-annual and at spatial scales from several kilometers or finer to global. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 1998 through 2006. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at lxi degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-2), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to in situ observations at sites in Northern mid latitudes and the continental tropics. The influence of key process representations is inferred. We find that the model can resolve much of the hourly to synoptic variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The seasonal cycle and its interannual variations generally respond adequately, but discrepancies in the tropics suggest the need for a refinement of the soil moisture dependence of the respiration flux in CASA. Examples and inferences for interpretation of satellite data will be discussed. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in the terrestrial CO2 sink and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Comparing Global Atmospheric CO2 Flux and Transport Models with Remote Sensing (and Other) Observations

We report recent progress derived from comparison of global CO2 flux and transport models with new remote sensing and other sources of CO2 data including those from satellite. The overall objective of this activity is to improve the process models that represent our understanding of the workings of the atmospheric carbon cycle. Model estimates of CO2 surface flux and atmospheric transport processes are required for initial constraints on inverse analyses, to connect atmospheric observations to the location of surface sources and sinks, to provide the basic framework for carbon data assimilation, and ultimately for future projections of carbon-climate interactions. Models can also be used to test consistency within and between CO2 data sets under varying geophysical states. Here we focus on simulated CO2 fluxes from terrestrial vegetation and atmospheric transport mutually constrained by analyzed meteorological fields from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office for the period 2000 through 2009. Use of assimilated meteorological data enables direct model comparison to observations across a wide range of scales of variability. The biospheric fluxes are produced by the CASA model at 1x1 degrees on a monthly mean basis, modulated hourly with analyzed temperature and sunlight. Both physiological and biomass burning fluxes are derived using satellite observations of vegetation, burned area (as in GFED-3), and analyzed meteorology. For the purposes of comparison to CO2 data, fossil fuel and ocean fluxes are also included in the transport simulations. In this presentation we evaluate the model's ability to simulate CO2 flux and mixing ratio variability in comparison to remote sensing observations from TCCON, GOSAT, and AIRS as well as relevant in situ observations. Examples of the influence of key process representations are shown from both forward and inverse model comparisons. We find that the model can resolve much of the synoptic, seasonal, and interannual variability in the observations, although reasons for persistent discrepancies in northern hemisphere vegetation uptake are examined. At this time, we do not find any serious shortcomings in the model transport representation, but this is still the subject of close scrutiny. In general, the fidelity of these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of real-time, highly resolved remote sensing and other observations into quantitative analyses that will reduce uncertainty in CO2 fluxes and revolutionize our understanding of the key processes controlling atmospheric CO2 and its evolution with time.

Kawa, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Assessment of Urbanization on the Integrated Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Environment in Coastal Metropolis in Preparation for HyspIRI

The need for comprehensive studies of the relationships between past and projected changes of regional climate and human activity in comple x urban environments has been well established. The HyspIRI preparato ry airborne activities in California, associated science and applicat ions research, and eventually HyspIRI itself provide an unprecedented opportunity for development and implementation of an integrated data and modeling analysis system focused on coastal urban environments. We will utilize HyspIRI preparatory data collections in developing ne w remote sensing-based tools for investigating the integrated urban e nvironment, emphasizing weather, climate, and energy demands in compl ex coastal cities.

Sequera, Pedro↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Forcing Reconstructions for Use in PMIP Simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.0)

Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, volcanic, changes in land use/land cover and some variation in greenhouse gas levels. While some of these effects can be easily defined, the reconstructions of solar, volcanic and land use-related forcing are more uncertain. We describe here the approach taken in defining the scenarios used in PMIP3, document the forcing reconstructions and discuss likely implications.

volcanoes↗

NASA NTRS2017

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

NASA NTRS2016

New York, USA

New York City, one of the most populous and ethnically diverse cities in the world, has responded to a variety of enviornmental challenges in its history. The most recent is climate change, which is projected to have wide impacts on the city's critical infrastructure and population through higher temperatures, more intense flooding events and sea level rise. The city recognized the risks early and has become a national and international leader in responding to this new challenge, illustrating how this is possible for a large city. As part of a mature urban region, it is an excellent bellwether for the impacts that may be experienced by other cities, especially those in emerging metropolitan conurbations.

Solecki, William↗

NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying Chemical Ozone Loss in the Arctic Stratosphere with GEOS-STRATCHEM Data Assimilation System

A faithful representation of polar stratospheric chemistry in models and its connection with dynamical variability is essential for our understanding of the evolution of the ozone layer in a changing climate and during the projected continuing decline of ozone depleting substances in the atmosphere. We use a new configuration of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System with a stratospheric chemistry model to study ozone depletion in the Arctic polar stratosphere during the exceptionally cold (in the stratosphere) winters 2015/2016 and 2010/2011.

Arctic↗

NASA NTRS2010

Application of Ensemble Detection and Analysis to Modeling Uncertainty in Non Stationary Process

Characterization of non stationary and nonlinear processes is a challenge in many engineering and scientific disciplines. Climate change modeling and projection, retrieving information from Doppler measurements of hydrometeors, and modeling calibration architectures and algorithms in microwave radiometers are example applications that can benefit from improvements in the modeling and analysis of non stationary processes. Analyses of measured signals have traditionally been limited to a single measurement series. Ensemble Detection is a technique whereby mixing calibrated noise produces an ensemble measurement set. The collection of ensemble data sets enables new methods for analyzing random signals and offers powerful new approaches to studying and analyzing non stationary processes. Derived information contained in the dynamic stochastic moments of a process will enable many novel applications.

Racette, Paul↗

NASA NTRS2017

Deriving Global OH Abundance and Atmospheric Lifetimes for Long-Lived Gases: A Search for CH3CCl3 Alternatives

An accurate estimate of global hydroxyl radical (OH) abundance is important for projections of air quality, climate, and stratospheric ozone recovery. As the atmospheric mixing ratios of methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3) (MCF), the commonly used OH reference gas, approaches zero, it is important to find alternative approaches to infer atmospheric OH abundance and variability. The lack of global bottom-up emission inventories is the primary obstacle in choosing a MCF alternative. We illustrate that global emissions of long-lived trace gases can be inferred from their observed mixing ratio differences between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), given realistic estimates of their NH-SH exchange time, the emission partitioning between the two hemispheres, and the NH versus SH OH abundance ratio. Using the observed long-term trend and emissions derived from the measured hemispheric gradient, the combination of HFC-32 (CH2F2), HFC-134a (CH2FCF3, HFC-152a (CH3CHF2), and HCFC-22 (CHClF2), instead of a single gas, will be useful as a MCF alternative to infer global and hemispheric OH abundance and trace gas lifetimes. The primary assumption on which this multispecies approach relies is that the OH lifetimes can be estimated by scaling the thermal reaction rates of a reference gas at 272 K on global and hemispheric scales. Thus, the derived hemispheric and global OH estimates are forced to reconcile the observed trends and gradient for all four compounds simultaneously. However, currently, observations of these gases from the surface networks do not provide more accurate OH abundance estimate than that from MCF.

Lifetime↗

NASA NTRS2019

Multimodel Analysis of Future Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystem Functioning

Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.

land use change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Radiometric Scaling of the MODIS and VIIRS Imagers to a Common Reference and Stability Analysis for the Next Edition of CERES Products

The NASA CERES project has provided the climate quality observed TOA and computed surface fluxes to the scientific community. CERES uses MODIS and VIIRS imagers to retrieve cloud properties needed to convert Terra, Aqua, NPP, and NOAA-20 CERES footprint radiance observations into fluxes. The imagers are also used to radiometrically scale the geostationary sensors (GEO) radiances to the imager calibration reference to ensure that the GEO derived cloud properties and broadband TOA fluxes are consistent in both space and time. Both the imager and GEO retrieved cloud properties are used to compute the surface fluxes. The CERES imager and GEO calibration team uses ray-matched radiance pairs to radiometrically scale the SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS sensors to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. The radiometric scaling is further validated using geostationary imagers as transfer radiometers. The team will rely primarily on deep convective clouds to monitor the imager channel calibration stability and to correct for short term calibration drifts. The DSCOVR satellite was launched on February 25, 2015 and orbits around the L1 Lagrange point directly between the Earth and the sun. The EPIC sensor contains no onboard calibration systems. However, multiple inter-calibration studies have shown that the EPIC imager is very stable in time. The excellent radiometric stability of EPIC allows the use of EPIC observations as a stable reference to validate both the short term drift corrections of the imagers, as well as to validate the radiometric scaling factors between them. Examples of the imager relative calibration using EPIC before and after radiometric scaling will be shown along with the results from the use of invariant targets to remove imager calibration drifts.

DSCOVR-EPIC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeled Impacts of LULC and Climate Change Predictions on Water Quality in Belize

Land use and land cover (LULC) change can have detrimental effects on water quality. In Belize, agricultural expansion creates the risk of increased sediment load and excess nutrients in runoff water, while deforestation removes potential infiltration sites for this outflow. Climate change and evolving precipitation rates can intensify the quantity of runoff, further enabling the flow of sediments and excess nutrients out to the lagoon surrounding the Belize Barrier Reef Reserve System (BBRRS). This study estimated future water quality in Belize by projecting LULC change through 2090 across Belize’s major watersheds based on observed trends from 2008-2018. Those LULC projections were subsequently combined with soil type data, elevation, and precipitation rates into a hydrologic model to produce runoff estimates as a proxy for water quality. The two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP-6) scenarios employed in the study represented bookend climate change scenarios, and both predicted lower precipitation rates in Belize over the next century due to climate change. When holding LULC change constant, these climate scenarios projected a decrease in runoff, suggesting a positive relationship between precipitation and runoff. The southern watersheds in particular are projected to experience greater decreases in annual rainfall and runoff by 2090. When holding climate constant, runoff increased by approximately 2.8% in the Conservation-focused LULC scenario by 2090, which was 28% lower than the Business as Usual scenario and 42% lower than the Development scenario.

water resources↗

NASA NTRS2023

Comment on “Advanced Testing of Low, Medium, and High ECS CMIP6 GCM Simulations Versus ERA5-T2m” by N. Scafetta (2022)

Scafetta (2022, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl097716) purports to test Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) climate models through a comparison of temperature changes over three decades. Unfortunately, the paper contains numerous conceptual and statistical errors that undermine all of the conclusions. First, no uncertainty is given for the observational temperature difference, making it impossible to assess compatibility with any model result. Second, the CMIP6 data are the ensemble means for each model, but the metric being tested is sensitive to the internal variability and so the full ensemble for each model must be used. When this is corrected, the conclusion that “all models with ECS > 3.0°C overestimate the observed global surface warming” is not sustained. Third, the statistical test in Section 2 would reject all models even in a perfect model setup given sufficient ensemble members, thus the second conclusion “that spatial t-statistics rejects the data-model agreement” is also not sustainable.

CMIP6↗

NASA NTRS2024

Southern California Water Resources: Using NASA Earth Observations to Monitor Seagrass Extent and Water Quality Parameters in Southern California

Eelgrass (Zostera marina) is a species of submerged aquatic vegetation found in shallow bays and estuaries with soft seafloors. Eelgrass is recognized for providing ecosystem benefits, such as carbon sequestration, sediment stabilization, water clarification, and fish and wildlife habitats. However, eelgrass is impacted by both marine and terrestrial threats associated with climate change. In this project, we worked with the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Marine Fisheries Service, and the State of California San Diego Regional Water Quality Control Board to investigate water quality parameters (i.e., chlorophyll-a concentration, sea surface temperature, and turbidity) associated with eelgrass in Newport Bay and Mission Bay, California. The team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor, Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager-2 and Thermal Infrared Sensor-2, Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument, and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station land surface temperature and cloud mask to create a time series of these water quality parameters from 2019–2023. We found that the parameters followed cyclical, seasonal patterns with turbidity and sea surface temperature peaking in the summer. We did not find that the parameters had changed significantly over longer time periods. These results will be used in a model developed by the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project to assess eelgrass ecosystem health and predict ecosystem occupancy in the future.

Katya Beener↗