DOE OSTI · 1846464
Long-range prediction and the stratosphere
Abstract
Abstract. Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere–troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.
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Scaife, Adam A. (ORCID:0000000251897538), Baldwin, Mark P., Butler, Amy H. (ORCID:0000000236320925), Charlton-Perez, Andrew J., Domeisen, Daniela I. V. (ORCID:000000021463929X), Garfinkel, Chaim I. (ORCID:000000017258666X), Hardiman, Steven C. (ORCID:0000000198131209), Haynes, Peter, Karpechko, Alexey Yu, Lim, Eun-Pa, Noguchi, Shunsuke, Perlwitz, Judith, Polvani, Lorenzo (ORCID:0000000347758110), Richter, Jadwiga H., Scinocca, John, Sigmond, Michael (ORCID:0000000321919756), Shepherd, Theodore G., Son, Seok-Woo (ORCID:0000000329829501), Thompson, David W. J.. 2022-02-25. Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
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