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At least 91 records · Page 5

The Table of Standard Atomic Weights—an exercise in consensus

The present Table of Standard Atomic Weights (TSAW) of the elements is perhaps one of the most familiar datasets in science. Unlike most parameters in physical science whose values and uncertainties are evaluated using the “Guidelines for Uncertainty in Measurement” (GUM), the majority of standard atomic-weight values and their uncertainties are consensus values, not GUM-evaluated values. The Commission on Isotopic Abundances and Atomic Weights of the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) regularly evaluates the literature for new isotopic-abundance measurements that can lead to revised standard atomic-weight values, A r (E) for element E. The Commission strives to provide utmost clarity in products it disseminates, namely the TSAW and the Table of Isotopic Compositions of the Elements (TICE). In 2016, it was recognized by the Commission that a guideline recommending expression of uncertainty listed in parentheses following the standard atomic-weight value, e.g. A r (Se) = 78.971(8), is not in accord with the GUM, which suggests that this parenthetic notation be reserved to express standard uncertainty, not the expanded uncertainty used in the TSAW and TICE. In 2017, to eliminate this noncompliance with the GUM, a new format was adopted in which the uncertainty value is specified by the plus-minus symbol, e.g. A r (Se) = 78.971 ± 0.008. To clarify the definition of uncertainty, a new footnote has been added to the TSAW. This footnote emphasizes that an atomic-weight uncertainty is a consensus (decisional) uncertainty. Not only has the Commission shielded users of the TSAW and TICE from unreliable measurements that appear in the literature as a result of unduly small uncertainties, but the aim of IUPAC has been fulfilled by which any scientist, taking any natural sample from commerce or research, can expect their sample atomic weight to lie within A r (E) ± its uncertainty almost all of the time.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Toward real-time optimization through model reduction and model discrepancy sensitivities

Optimization problems arise in a range of scenarios, from optimal control to model parameter estimation. In many applications, such as the development of digital twins, it is essential to solve these optimization problems within wall-clock-time limitations. However, this is often unattainable for complex systems, such as those modeled by nonlinear partial differential equations. One strategy for mitigating this issue is to construct a reduced-order model (ROM) that enables more rapid optimization. In particular, the use of nonintrusive ROMs—those that do not require access to the full-order model at evaluation time—is popular because they facilitate the computation of optimization solutions within the wall-clock time requirements. However, the optimization solution will be unreliable if the iterates move outside the ROM training data. This article proposes the use of hyper-differential sensitivity analysis with respect to model discrepancy (HDSA-MD) as a computationally efficient tool to augment ROM-constrained optimization and improve its reliability. The proposed approach consists of two phases: (i) an offline phase where several full-order model evaluations are computed to train the ROM, and (ii) an online phase where a ROM-constrained optimization problem is solved, a limited number of full-order model evaluations are computed, and HDSA-MD is used to enhance the optimization solution. Numerical results are demonstrated for two examples, atmospheric contaminant control and wildfire ignition location estimation, in which a ROM is trained offline using inaccurate atmospheric data. In conclusion, the HDSA-MD update yields a significant improvement in the ROM-constrained optimization solution using only one full-order model evaluation online with corrected atmospheric data.

PDE-constrained optimization↗

Methodology to determine printability criteria of highly concentrated pastes through rheological characterization

Material extrusion is an additive manufacturing technique that enables the creation of reproducible and complex hardware by depositing a viscous, shear-thinning ink onto a substrate in a custom-pattern via extrusion through a syringe. Here, the ability of an ink to be extruded onto a substrate in many layers, and maintain the desired shape is what defines the printability. Printability is often investigated by formulating, printing, and postmortem analysis of final parts in an iterative manner. Investigations of printability through rheological characterization have often been concerned with inks that straddle the line between printable and too thin, leaving out an entire class of inks that are highly-filled pastes, where extrudability is the limiting factor. Highly-filled pastes continue to pose issues for researchers as the effect of filler morphology, size, loading, and packing fraction on the ink rheology and corresponding printability is not understood. While traditional rheological characterizations may be useful for some inks, we show that protocols utilizing steady-shear, or large-amplitude oscillatory shear are difficult and unreliable for highly-filled pastes. Through transient rheology paired with real-time images we show that each traditional protocol produces inhomogeneous deformations that violate the assumptions that underly common rheological definitions. Instead, we demonstrate metrics measured with small-amplitude oscillatory shear that are correlated to the printability of various ink formulations ranging in loading. The rheological measures that accurately predict the printability of the inks are the axial stress measured at small amplitudes, and the critical stress amplitude above which rheological characterizations become impossible. In addition, we estimate the maximum packing fraction for each filler, based on the exponent common to hard sphere models, and show that the printability of each ink can be predicted by the ratio of the packing fraction to the theoretical maximum. We show how small-amplitude oscillatory shear allows users to develop printability criteria for any ink to enhance the workflow in the development of new inks, increase the performance of material extrusion printing, and improve the stability of printed parts, with less wasted time and materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Stochastic Optimization and Uncertainty Quantification of Natrium-based Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems for Flexible Power Applications in Deregulated Markets

Rapid integration of variable renewable energy sources (VRES) has made modeling and stochastic optimization of hybrid energy systems crucial for studying their long-term performance and viability. However, most studies have focused on just historical data, which may be unreliable for capturing short-term fluctuations, rare events, and long-term patterns of energy demand, price, and the variability of renewable energy sources. For this study, optimal synthetic time series models were developed using Wasserstein distance. The models were validated by comparing the key statistical measures against those of the historical data. They were then used to optimize the integrated Natrium-style advanced energy systems and their long-term (30 years) economics. The stochastic model performs bi-level optimization to find the optimal sizes for the balance of plant and thermal energy storage, while also optimizing energy dispatch to achieve the maximum net present value. In studies of two deregulated markets (California ISO and the Electric Reliability Council of Texas), the integrated Natrium-style system performed better in CAISO than in ERCOT, given higher and more consistent electricity prices during peak-demand periods. The potentially enlarged cost associated with the variable operation and maintenance of the TES system also plays a significant role in driving the system sizing, thus its impacts on the system are investigated in detail through comparison against a baseline case. The study also finds that the bi-level optimization results based on stochastic gradient descent closely match the grid search results. The uncertainty quantification of the stochastic signals provides further NPV-related insights and probability distributions for the case studies. The normal standard error of the mean of NPV for the case with and without TES VOM for CAISO were found to be 7.73M (plus-minus sign) 1.09M USD and 104.99M (plus-minus sign) 1.25M USD, respectively based on a 95% confidence. Given the relatively small NPV variance based on 150 samples, the analysis affords the most robust possible prediction of the techno-economic performance of the integrated Natrium-style energy systems.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Efficiency of natural pozzolans, ground glasses and coal bottom ashes in mitigating sulfate attack and alkali-silica reaction

The use of pozzolans to partially replace Portland cement in concrete has generally demonstrated beneficial impacts on the durability characteristics of concrete for decades. In this paper a diverse range of pozzolans including natural pozzolans, ground glasses and industrial by-products such as coal ash (fly ash and bottom ash) and silica fume were investigated for their synergistic potential in binary or ternary blends with Portland cement in improving resistance to chemical sulfate attack and alkali-silica reaction (ASR). It is generally considered that pozzolans improve most of the durability issues encountered in concrete, including reducing the risk of sulfate attack or ASR. But this is not always the case. For example, it was found that ground glasses were very efficient in improving sulfate resistance, but their ability to mitigate expansion due to ASR was dictated by the equivalent alkalis content (Na{sub 2}O{sub e}) of the glass and high-alkali soda glass was generally not effective in this role. On the other hand, metakaolin, a highly reactive pozzolan, was highly effective in reducing ASR expansion, but may actually increase the damage due to sulfate attack when used at moderate replacement levels. Most pozzolans, such as low-CaO coal fly ash and ground coal bottom ash, silica fume, and pumice, were effective in controlling expansion due to both ASR and sulfate attack. The results demonstrated that the extent of the positive impact of using natural pozzolans on both properties was variable. The pozzolanic reactivity of materials alone was an unreliable indicator to assess the ability of the pozzolan to suppress expansion due to sulfate attack or ASR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel processing route for design and manufacturing of metal toughened nanoceramics: Al–Al 2 O 3 nanocermets

Monolithic alumina is a highly brittle ceramic with a very low fracture toughness, making it an unreliable material for mechanical and structural applications. Ceramic-metal composites (cermets) are the subject of intensive interest to obtain materials which can address the intrinsic brittleness of ceramics without compromising their high strength and light weight. In the present investigation, aluminium-alumina (Al–Al 2 O 3 ) nanocermets were developed. The nanocermets possessed the toughness of Al phase and the strength of reinforced nano Al 2 O 3 particles. Here, the nanocermets green bodies were prepared such that upon sintering each adjacent Al 2 O 3 grain was conformally coated with a continuous Al film. Mechanical milling via a combination of cryo-milling and ball-milling was used to prepare Al–Al 2 O 3 nano-powder mixture. Spark plasma sintering was used to consolidate the green nanocermets. Results show that specimens prepared from 35 h milled powders exhibited superior mechanical properties as compared to other nanocermets, with an improvement in microhardness, elastic modulus, compressive strength, and flexural strength by 88%, 78%, 69% and 40% with respect to sintered pure Al. The indentation toughness of 35 h milled nanocermet showed an increment of 12.5% with respect to sintered pure Al 2 O 3 . Characterization techniques such as XRD, SEM, HR-TEM, X-ray tomography were employed to investigate the phase evolution and structural morphology, while FEM simulations were performed for understanding the crack propagation mechanisms in nanocermets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Pressure stability in explicitly coupled simulations of poromechanics with application to CO 2 sequestration

We study in detail the pressure stabilizing effects of the non-iterated fixed-stress splitting in poromechanical problems which are nearly undrained and incompressible. When applied in conjunction with a spatial discretization which does not satisfy the discrete inf–sup condition, namely a mixed piecewise linear–piecewise constant spatial discretization, the explicit fixed-stress scheme can have a pressure stabilizing effect in transient problems. This effect disappears, however, upon time step refinement or the attainment of steady state. The interpretation of the scheme as an Augmented Lagrangian method similar to Uzawa iteration for incompressible flow helps explain these results. Moreover, due to the slowly evolving solution within undrained seal regions, we show that the explicit fixed-stress scheme requires very large time steps to reveal its pressure stabilizing effect in examples of geologic CO 2 sequestration. We note that large time steps can result in large errors in drained regions, such as the aquifer or reservoir regions of these examples, and can prevent convergence of nonlinear solvers in the case of multiphase flows, which can make the explicit scheme an unreliable source of pressure stabilization. We conclude by demonstrating that pressure jump stabilization is as effective in the explicit fixed-stress setting as in the fully implicit setting for undrained problems, while maintaining the stability and convergence of the fixed-stress split for drained problems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Accelerating Hamiltonian Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference in neural networks and neural operators

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful and accurate method to sample from the posterior distribution in Bayesian inference. However, HMC techniques are computationally demanding for Bayesian neural networks due to the high dimensionality of the network’s parameter space and the non-convexity of their posterior distributions. Therefore, various approximation techniques, such as variational inference (VI) or stochastic gradient MCMC, are often employed to infer the posterior distribution of the network parameters. Such approximations introduce inaccuracies in the inferred distributions, resulting in unreliable uncertainty estimates. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach that combines inexpensive VI and accurate HMC methods to efficiently and accurately quantify uncertainties in neural networks and neural operators. The proposed approach leverages an initial VI training on the full network. We examine the influence of individual parameters on the prediction uncertainty, which shows that a large proportion of the parameters do not contribute substantially to uncertainty in the network predictions. This information is then used to significantly reduce the dimension of the parameter space, and HMC is performed only for the subset of network parameters that strongly influence prediction uncertainties. This yields a framework for accelerating the full batch HMC for posterior inference in neural networks. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed framework on deep neural networks and operator networks, showing that inference can be performed for large networks with tens to hundreds of thousands of parameters. Finally, we show that this method can effectively learn surrogates for complex physical systems by modeling the operator that maps from upstream conditions to wall-pressure data on a cone in hypersonic flow.

Bayesian inference↗

Multi defect detection and analysis of electron microscopy images with deep learning

Electron microscopy is widely used to explore defects in crystal structures, but human detecting of defects is often time-consuming, error-prone, and unreliable, and is not scalable to large numbers of images or real-time analysis. In this work, we discuss the application of machine learning approaches to find the location and geometry of different defect clusters in irradiated steels. We show that a deep learning based Faster R-CNN analysis system has a performance comparable to human analysis with relatively small training data sets. Furthermore, this study proves the promising ability to apply deep learning to assist the development of automated microscopy data analysis even when multiple features are present and paves the way for fast, scalable, and reliable analysis systems for massive amounts of modern electron microscopy data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparison of Surface Tension Generation Methods in Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics for Dynamic Systems

Developing robust numerical models of dynamic surface tension dominated multiphase systems is an ongoing challenge, especially in scenarios with large density and viscosity ratios. This is critical to the design and understanding of various physical and engineering systems, such as fluidized beds, fuel injectors, and drug delivery schemes. Much of the computational work in surface tension dominated multiphase flows has employed the continuum surface force method (CSF) of Brackbill et al. [1], which recasts surface tension from a surface force to a volumetric force that can be imposed in the vicinity of an interface. The CSF method produces accurate results across a variety of systems, however it relies on the identication of surface normals, which can be unreliable under certain conditions. Alternative methods of simulating surface tension have been proposed. Here the advantages and disadvantages of the CSF method in comparison to a pairwise forces (PF) method proposed by Tartakovsky and Panchenko [2] are explored. The CSF and PF methods are used in a smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) framework to model dynamic systems. Results are compared to existing test cases from the literature and to analytic solutions derived from fundamental normal mode behavior of bubbles and droplets. A physical system for which the PF method is more stable and physically appropriate than the CSF method is identied.

smoothed particle hydrodynamics, multiphase flow↗

Advancing Li-plating detection: Motivating a multi-signal correlation approach

Facilitating fast charging in lithium-ion batteries (LiBs) is often linked to Li-plating, which harms performance, longevity, and safety. Early detection of Li-plating is essential for rapid technological development and for preventing performance deterioration and ensuring safety during operation. Fast and real-time detection, using commonly collected measurements like voltage (V), current (I), temperature (T), and pressure (P), is highly desirable. Existing standalone methods relying on electrochemical and mechanical signatures, using half, smaller, or specially designed cells often operated at lower temperatures, fail to account for real-world fast-charging conditions. These signatures may also have inherent unreliability in aged LiBs, a phenomenon currently not-well understood. All these uncertainties have complicated practical implementation of a robust Li-plating detection technique. This study, through multiple case studies involving real-world fast-charging conditions using automotive-grade 11.6 Ah LiBs, shows that many single signal-based diagnostic techniques may be inadequate to detect Li-plating. Among various signatures, end-of-charge rest pressure, differential pressure-sensing, and end-of-charge rest voltage were identified as particularly useful in detecting Li-plating. Furthermore, A multi-signal-based detection technique is shown to be more robust in detecting Li-plating. Using both fresh and aged cells, the results and analysis highlight how detection capabilities are influenced by various factors, including battery design, size, charging speed, operating temperature, and degradation level. Adopting such a multi-signal Li-plating detection approach may be instrumental in the rapid development of battery technology in laboratories, as well as ensuring the enhanced safety of next-generation LiBs in real-world fast-charging applications.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A machine learning model for predicting the minimum miscibility pressure of CO 2 and crude oil system based on a support vector machine algorithm approach

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a potential way for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Though, the effect of CO 2 injection is greatly influenced by the reservoir conditions. Typically, Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is selected as one of the key parameters for the screening and evaluation of prospective CO 2 flooding. Conventional slim tube test is both accurate and widely accepted but it is inefficient. Existing empirical formulas for MMPs are easy to be used but have been proved inaccurate and unreliable. Machine learning-based methods have great advantages in predicting MMP. However, only predication accuracy is discussed for most models without the screening of the main control factors and further validation of the model reliability. In this paper, a new prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) was developed for pure/impure CO 2 and crude oil system. This study was based on 147 sets of MMP data from the literature with full information on reservoir temperature, oil composition and gas composition. The main control factors were screened by several statistical methods. Unlike the conventional prediction models that verified by only prediction accuracy, learning curve and single factor control variable analysis are further validated to obtain the optimum model.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Uncertainty quantification of the convolutional neural networks on permeability estimation from micro-CT scanned sandstone and carbonate rock images

Rock permeability is one of the most crucial properties affecting subsurface fluid flow behaviors. To accurately and robustly estimate the permeability, Digital Rock Physics, including micro-CT scanning technology and direct flow simulations on scanned images, has prevailed in recent years. Besides, machine learning techniques such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been widely adopted and achieved success in permeability estimations directly from rock images. However, existing ML methods used for permeability estimation from rock images lack uncertainty quantification that causes unreliable predictions and overconfident estimations on out-of-distribution (OOD) samples. Here, in this work, we propose a PI3NN-CNN framework to address this problem. PI3NN-CNN consists of a CNN model for absolute permeability estimation and a PI3NN method to quantify the estimation uncertainty. It is able to quantify the uncertainty for in-distribution (InD) data with a desired confidence level, and identify OOD samples to avoid overconfident predictions. We demonstrate the method using micro-CT scanned images from two sandstone and two carbonate rocks. We found that PI3NN-CNN generates accurate predictions for InD samples, while producing high-quality prediction uncertainties regardless of the prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, PI3NN-CNN identifies OOD samples using its special network initialization scheme. The unique feature of PI3NN-CNN makes it applicable to more complex real-world image-based data for robust learning and predictions without overconfident estimations when the ground-truth information is unavailable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst): A multicomponent geothermometry tool

The Reservoir Temperature Estimator (RTEst) is a multicomponent geothermometry tool for estimating reservoir geochemical parameters including reservoir temperature, CO 2 fugacity, mass of water lost or gained, and a reaction factor. It estimates these parameters and their associated uncertainties by minimizing an objective function that is the weighted sum of squares of the saturation indices of a user-selected set of minerals believed to be equilibrated with the reservoir fluid. RTEst accomplishes these estimates by combining the geochemical modeling capabilities of The Geochemist’s Workbench® with the optimization/parameter estimation resources of PEST®. An included interface aids the user in selecting plausible mineral phases to comprise the objective function and calculates their weighting factors. The working principles of RTEst are described and its efficacy is illustrated by presenting results of its application to various geothermal fields with known conditions. These examples show RTEst can account for the alteration of ascending reservoir fluid by mineral (calcite) re-equilibration with changes in temperature, reconstruct waters with CO 2 loss, correct for the deficit of water and other volatiles (CO 2,gas , H 2 S gas ) from boiling, and determine the amount of mixing of thermal and non-thermal waters. RTEst can use data with basis species below detection limit, missing, or unreliable either by assuming equilibrium with a controlling mineral (fixed-analyte method) or by treating the analyte concentration as an optimization parameter. The inverse of variance weighting method included in RTEst provides more representative results than either the normalization or unit weighting methods. Finally, the ability of RTEst to calculate reservoir temperatures, gas fugacity, and mixing fractions demonstrates its usefulness as a tool for evaluating geothermal systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Residual-based error correction for neural operator accelerated infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

We explore using neural operators, or neural network representations of nonlinear maps between function spaces, to accelerate infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) with models governed by nonlinear parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Neural operators have gained significant attention in recent years for their ability to approximate the parameter-to-solution maps defined by PDEs using as training data solutions of PDEs at a limited number of parameter samples. The computational cost of BIPs can be drastically reduced if the large number of PDE solves required for posterior characterization are replaced with evaluations of trained neural operators. However, reducing error in the resulting BIP solutions via reducing the approximation error of the neural operators in training can be challenging and unreliable. We provide an a priori error bound result that implies certain BIPs can be ill-conditioned to the approximation error of neural operators, thus leading to inaccessible accuracy requirements in training. To reliably deploy neural operators in BIPs, we consider a strategy for enhancing the performance of neural operators: correcting the prediction of a trained neural operator by solving a linear variational problem based on the PDE residual. We show that a trained neural operator with error correction can achieve a quadratic reduction of its approximation error, all while retaining substantial computational speedups of posterior sampling when models are governed by highly nonlinear PDEs. The strategy is applied to two numerical examples of BIPs based on a nonlinear reaction–diffusion problem and deformation of hyperelastic materials. We demonstrate that posterior representations of the two BIPs produced using trained neural operators are greatly and consistently enhanced by error correction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of the anisotropic grain boundaries and surfaces of α -U via molecular dynamics

Alloys based on uranium-zirconium are gaining renewed interest as fuels for the Versatile Test Reactor and a number of microreactor designs. Implementing metallic fuel in reactors creates the need for robust descriptive and predictive fuel performance modeling. Here, the current state of metallic fuel performance modeling relies on empirical equations derived from historical experiments, which may be unreliable when applied outside of their temperature, power, and composition phase space. One area where such data is lacking is the irradiation behavior of alpha -U, specifically tearing and porosity formation at the early stages of irradiation. While grain boundaries likely play a key role in this fuel behavior, relatively little is known about grain boundaries in alpha-U. Thus, we evaluate the grain boundary, surface energy, and work of adhesion of alpha -U utilizing molecular dynamics. Symmetric tilt grain boundaries (STGBs) are analyzed with the tilt plane oriented along each major crystallographic axis, for a total of eighty unique grain boundaries. The effect of temperature, tilt plane, and misorientation angle on interfacial energies are analyzed. The interfacial energies typically increase with temperature and there is significant variance as a function of misorientation angle, irrespective of the tilt plane. At 500 K, the average surface energy (1.23 J/m 2 ) is approximately 1.5 times the grain boundary energy (0.79 J/m 2 ), and the work of adhesion is approximately twice the grain boundary energy (1.68 J/m 2 ). Orientations for the likely formation of twins and likely failure planes are identified.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗