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At least 883 records · Page 49

Repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge plasma decay in propane–oxygen gas mixture in the presence of a heating electric field

Plasma decay in the afterglow of a repetitively pulsed nanosecond discharge in a stoichiometric propane–oxygen mixture was experimentally investigated when a weak heating DC electric field was applied and in its absence. The discharge was ignited at room gas temperature and a pressure of 1–2 Torr and was characterized by low specific energy inputs (<0.004 eV per molecule in one pulse). Using microwave interferometry, the temporal evolution of the electron density during plasma decay was studied, and the effective recombination coefficients were obtained from data processing. It was shown that the rate of plasma decay behaved in a non-monotonic manner with increasing degree of propane oxidation; at first the decay rate grew, then passed through a maximum, fell and saturated in the limit of a large (~2000) number of pulses. In this limit, the effect of the heating DC electric field on the plasma decay decreased with approaching chemical equilibrium. Numerical simulation of the observed effects was performed for low and high oxidation degrees of propane taking into account changes in the composition of positive ions in the plasma. Good agreement was obtained between measurements and calculations of the electron density during plasma decay in these cases. Here it was shown that the formation of cluster ions in the discharge afterglow plays a fundamental role. The plasma decay was controlled by electron recombination with hydrocarbon cluster ion at low oxidation degree of propane and with water cluster (hydrated) ions at high oxidation degree. A hypothesis was proposed to explain the observed nonmonotonic behavior of the plasma decay rate with an increase in the propane oxidation in the discharge, based on the formation of hydrated hydrocarbon ions C x H y + (H 2 O) k at moderate oxidation degrees.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Molecular weight growth by the phenyl + cyclopentadienyl reaction: Well-skipping, ring-opening, and dissociation

Radical-radical reactions contribute to molecular weight growth of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but their role is not well understood. The phenyl (Ph, C 6 H 5 ) + cyclopentadienyl (C 5 H 5 ) reaction has not been studied but can serve as a surrogate reaction for many reactions of larger aryl-σ radicals with resonance-stabilized π-radicals. The adducts of these reactions easily lose an H atom to produce a new π-radical. Here, through a combination of dilute flash pyrolysis experiments, theory, and simulation, we find that for the title reaction, substantial Ph—C 5 H 4 + H is formed, dominantly by a well-skipping pathway, at conditions around 30 Torr and 1400 K. This radical is thermally stable at moderate temperatures but decomposes at higher temperatures following ring opening of the 5-member ring. Products corresponding to the loss of H, C 2 H 2 , and C 3 H 3 are observed experimentally. Calculation of the C 11 H 9 potential energy surface affirms that these are expected decomposition products and reveals multiple possible pathways.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toucan: A performance portable, scalable implementation of the DECA algorithm

In the field of additive manufacturing (AM), cellular automata (CA) is extensively used to simulate microstructural evolution during solidification. However, while traditional CA approaches are relatively fast, they still require a substantial number of time steps, are limited to moderate volumes, and are relatively difficult to improve through parallelism due to the highly localized nature of the solidification front. Here, to address these issues of time to solution and load balancing, we introduce Toucan, a parallel, performance-portable, and scalable code written in C++ with the Kokkos library that leverages the discrete event inspired cellular automata (DECA) algorithm to perform parallel-in-time (PinT) grain growth simulations. Toucan effectively mitigates load balancing issues by distributing the computational workload more evenly across processors, enhancing scalability and efficiency. We conduct both strong and weak scaling studies on up to 64 GPUs on the Frontier supercomputer, demonstrating that Toucan significantly outperforms the current state-of-the-art, time-stepped CA code, ExaCA, on both single and multi-GPU simulations. Even in AM-specific weak scaling scenarios, Toucan maintains near-ideal scaling, in contrast to the linear increase observed with ExaCA due to the moving laser raster pattern. This study highlights Toucan’s potential to transform microstructural simulations in AM by radically improving both efficiency and scalability over existing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Coupling localized Noah-MP-Crop model with the WRF model improved dynamic crop growth simulation across Northeast China

Croplands play a critical role in regulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere. However, the interactions between cropland and climate are usually poorly represented due to a lack of detailed representation in crop types and field management. Here, we coupled the Noah-MP-Crop model with the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore and evaluate the crop growth dynamics in response to climate variations across Northeast China. The default parameters of the crop model were not exactly suitable for the agricultural ecosystems in Northeast China. The detailed cropland distribution, and crop phenology parameters including growing degree days (GDD) and planting (harvesting) date were first created using multi-source remote sensing products and reanalysis data, and was then successfully used to simulate the growth and yield for corn and soybean and associated energy exchanges. We also optimized and calibrated other crop parameters using the time-series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface products. The modified crop model substantially improved the simulation of crop growth, plant physiology, and biomass accumulation for both corn and soybean. Coupling the localized dynamic crop model into the WRF led to considerable decreases in the simulated mean-absolute-errors (MAEs) and biases of the leaf area index, evapotranspiration, and gross primary production compared with the MODIS observed values. Compared with the statistical yield from each province, the modified crop model underestimated the corn yield from 11.1% to 48.6%, whereas overestimated the soybean yield from 16.5% to 162.6%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Natural carbonation of portland cement with synthetic zeolite Y as a supplementary cementitious material

Risks associated with carbonation are a key limitation to greater replacement levels of ordinary portland cement (OPC) by supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs). The addition of pozzolanic SCMs in OPC alters the hydrate assemblage by forming phases like calcium-(alumina)-silicate-hydrate (C-(A)-S-H). The objective of the present study was to elucidate how such changes in hydrate assemblage influence the chemical mechanisms of carbonation in a realistic OPC system. Here, in this paper, we show that synthetic zeolite Y (faujasite) is a highly reactive pozzolan in OPC that reduces the calcium content of hydration products via prompt consumption of calcium hydroxide from the evolving phase assemblage prior to CO 2 exposure. Suppression of portlandite at moderate to high zeolite Y content led to a more damaging mechanism of carbonation by disrupting the formation of a passivating carbonate layer. Without this layer, carbonation depth and CO 2 uptake are increased. Binders containing 12–18% zeolite Y by volume consumed all the calcium hydroxide from OPC during hydration and reduced the Ca/(Si+Al) ratio of the amorphous products to near 0.67. In these cases, higher carbonation depths were observed after exposure to ambient air with decalcification of C-(A)-S-H as the main source of CO 2 buffering. Binders with either 0% or 4% zeolite Y contained calcium hydroxide in the hydrated microstructure, had higher Ca/(Si+Al) ratios, and formed a calcite-rich passivation layer that halted deep carbonation. Although the carbonated layer in the samples with 12% and 18% zeolite Y contained 70% and 76% less calcite than the OPC respectively, their higher carbonation depths resulted in total CO 2 uptakes that were 12x greater than the OPC sample. Passivation layer formation in samples with calcium hydroxide explains this finding and was further supported by thermodynamic modeling. High Si/Al zeolite additives to OPC should be balanced with the calcium content for optimal carbonation resistance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Testing and modeling of CLT-to-CLT joints made using hardwood dowels and screws with varying spacing

With the increasing popularity of mass timber, utilizing large-diameter wood screws and hardwood dowels can offer an easy and cost-efficient way to join structural elements. However, the existing research on hardwood dowels is limited to single fastener joints under monotonic loading. No research is available on the group effects of joints with multiple hardwood dowels. Here, this paper presents the results of 96 monotonic and cyclic single-shear plane CLT-to-CLT joint tests with hardwood dowels (Red Oak and Yellow Birch, 25.4 mm diameter) and self-tapping wood screws (8 mm diameter) in Grand-Fir CLT, where screws were inserted both perpendicular and at a 45-degree angle to the grain for comparison to hardwood dowels. The study evaluated the mechanical properties of the joints by changing fastener spacing. Mechanical properties such as yielding and peak strength, displacement, elastic and yielding stiffness, and ductility were evaluated. The results showed equal strength and stiffness properties for hardwood dowels comparable with large-diameter screws. Additionally, the hardwood dowel joints demonstrated moderate ductility properties. The strength and stiffness of the tested joints were compared with analytical equations found in the literature by considering the group action factor of the fasteners. Lastly, a nonlinear force-displacement model was presented and compared to the experimental results and analytical calculations, which gives the possibility to predict and optimize the mechanical behavior of hardwood dowel and screw joints with varying numbers and spacing between fasteners.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel pyrolytic boron nitride coating to reduce graphite interactions in molten fluoride salt

Future salt reactors like the Fluoride-salt-cooled-High Temperature Reactor require varying material flavors. Graphite is required for neutron moderation and potential fuel forms, while structural metals are required for containment. Studies show graphite/metal interactions exist when both materials share a salt medium. These interactions may accelerate the corrosion of the metal and change the surface of graphite materials. A novel pyrolytic boron nitride coating on graphite is investigated for reducing graphite/metal interactions. Finally, this is the first known application of such a coating, and salt exposure tests reveal the pyrolytic boron nitride coating reduces the interactions between stainless steel and uncoated graphite.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Corrosion sensitivity of nickel-based Alloy Inconel 600 in pressurized water reactor water chemistry: Can KOH replace LiOH?

Lithium hydroxide (LiOH) has been used to balance water acidity against boric acid moderators in the primary water of Western pressurized water reactor (PWR) designs for decades. However, the demand and the cost of lithium-7 has grown significantly since 2015. Potassium hydroxide (KOH) has been identified as a suitable and cost-effective substitute for LiOH and has been used successfully in Russian PWR designs for more than 40 years. However, it is important to know if alloys and water conditions used in Western PWR’s (Alloy 600) are similarly compatible with KOH additions. This work is focused on the aqueous corrosion behaviors of Alloy 600 with LiOH versus KOH additions at normal operating concentrations and crevice water chemistry at simulated PWR primary water conditions. TEM was used to characterize the formed oxide through diffraction analysis; SIMS was used to probe the cation ingress into the material; Atom probe tomography was used to determine the 3D elemental distribution within the oxide/metal structures; finally electrochemical impedance spectroscopy was used to discuss the structure and corrosion resistance of the oxide films. These advanced characterization techniques complement the weight measurments which showed lower mass gain in KOH than LiOH crevice water due to less oxide formation. Overall, the use of KOH as a potential alternative to LiOH in PWR is discussed.

Alloy 600↗

Elucidating the impact of stress states on grain boundary passivation in Ni-5Cr using the Rhines pack method

The oxidation behavior of a Ni–5Cr (at.%) alloy was evaluated at 420 ° C using the Rhines pack method and simultaneous tensile and compressive stress states via a miniature four-point bending fixture. At this moderate temperature, grain boundaries dominate mass transport and the resulting oxidation response. Oxidation produced approximately 1μ⁢m-wide protective Cr 2 O 3 films capping some grain boundaries and penetrative, intergranular Cr-rich oxides at other grain boundaries. Externally applied tensile and compressive stress during oxidation increased the prevalence of Cr 2 O 3 cap formation compared to no applied stress, with tensile stress resulting in more Cr 2 O 3 caps than compressive stress. The observed oxide cap morphology was similar across all test conditions. Regions under compressive stress showed an order of magnitude greater Cr depletion depth along the grain boundary. Chromium nitrides (CrN), likely from N contamination of the Rhines pack cell, were observed both at the oxide–metal interface and intergranularly within the alloy. Collectively these results demonstrate that applied stress promotes localized protective oxide cap formation over grain boundaries, with compressive stress additionally promoting deeper Cr depletion. Furthermore the experimental approach helped separate out the effects of stress on local oxide formation and grain boundary passivation.

4 point bend↗

A BOUT++ extension for full annular tokamak edge MHD and turbulence simulations

For tokamak edge plasma simulation, a plasma simulation framework BOUT++ employs a dual coordinate system to simulate moderate-n and high-n plasma instability with reasonable computational cost, where n is the toroidal mode number. This coordinate system however limits the computational domain to the toroidal wedge (full torus divided into N parts in the toroidal direction) for computational efficiency and the use of flute-ordering approximation in the field solver calculating the flow potential from the vorticity which may not be valid for low-n modes. Improving numerical treatment of low-n modes is however indispensable to address simulations of low-n current-driven edge localized mode (ELM), ELM control by resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs), edge turbulence with RMPs and so on. In this work, BOUT++ is extended to simulate the interplay between $n=0$, low-n and high-n plasma components in a full annular tokamak edge domain through hybrid modeling of the flow potential and the vorticity. Low-n modes of flow potential are calculated in an orthogonal flux surface coordinate and high-n modes in the dual coordinate system separately in Fourier space. Finally, the proposed scheme can capture an interplay between $n=1$ global modes and high-n turbulence during pedestal collapse in a full annular torus domain with a circular cross section.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Comparative analysis of various pretreatments to mitigate fouling and scaling in membrane distillation

Membrane distillation (MD) has shown strong promise for treating hypersaline produced water (PW) streams. Scaling and fouling on the membrane surface, however, have been identified as major challenges for commercialization and widespread application. The focus of this study was to first identify the nature of foulants and scalants on the membrane surface and then investigate the pretreatment strategies that mitigate the extent of fouling and scaling on the membrane surface. Vacuum MD (VMD) was selected for this study because of its higher flux at more moderate feed temperatures that eventually leads better assessment of fouling and scaling on the membrane surface. VMD flux tests were carried out with three different real PW samples at total dissolved solids concentrations in the range of 120-160 g/L. It was found that an efficient pretreatment prior to MD is required to mitigate the fouling potential of the organic matter, mostly suspended constituents, in PW samples. Suspended organics fouled and quickly wetted the MD membrane. Major conventional treatments, including filtration, oxidation, coagulation, air floatation, and aeration were investigated to pretreat the PW before VMD tests. A comprehensive comparative analysis is presented showing that the ultrafiltration and coagulation pretreatments displayed the best performance in mitigating the fouling and scaling, while oxidative pretreatment was found to be effective in reducing the iron concentration to less than 5 ppm. The surface of scaled membranes was carefully characterized to further evaluate the performance of each pretreatment. The components that had the highest tendency to precipitate on the membrane surface were identified as strontium sulfate, calcium carbonate, sodium chloride, iron oxide, and silica. In closing, these findings are supported by thermodynamic estimation of the saturation index.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Record-breaking 2020 summer marine heatwaves in the western North Pacific

Record-breaking marine heatwaves (MHWs) occurred in the western North Pacific during the summer of 2020. These unprecedented MHWs were consistent with favorable large-scale conditions that are linked to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), resulting mainly from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the tropical oceans. In addition, a moderate La Niña-like pattern was also conducive to transporting warm seawater to the western North Pacific. Mixed-layer heat budgets suggest that surface heat flux contributed to the SST anomaly in the western subtropical Pacific. In contrast, oceanic heat advection dominanted in the South China Sea and the western equatorial Pacific. Numerical model experiments indicated that the tropical Indian Ocean SST anomalies were responsible for the enhanced WNPSH. The increased zonal SST gradient across the tropical Pacific also played an important role. Inter-ocean interactions can modulate climate variability through ocean-atmospheric coupling and deserve more attention when predicting MHWs within the context of global warming. Additionally, it is critical to consider MHWs as a powerful tool in detecting acute, intense thermal stress events in the coral bleaching pre-warning system.

Coral bleaching↗

Impact of soiling on Si and CdTe PV modules: Case study in different Brazil climate zones

Soiling, particulate accumulation on photovoltaic (PV) module surfaces, reduces the available solar resource and the resulting generated device power. This case-study summarizes initial results of 5-year research on the contrasting soiling conditions in the tropical, subtropical, and semi-arid climates in Brazil. A major objective is to present a case study of the effects of soiling on PV module performance in different Brazil climate zones that represent the primary areas for the current and expanding Brazil solar installations. For this, the paper presents methodologies to quantify the soiling ratio (SRatio) and soiling rate (SRate) for two representative commercial technologies, polycrystalline or multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) and thin-film cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules, through soiling monitoring stations deployed in the selected climate regions. An aim is to add to the growing soiling-research knowledge base through addressing these key factors and their relationships to critical electrical, solar resource, thermal, and local meteorological and environmental parameters. This paper presents, evaluates, and compares soiling rates and losses in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais (Equatorial Tropical: 19.92° S, 43.99° W), Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul (Humid-Subtropical: 30.05° S, 51.17° W), and Brotas de Macaúbas, Bahia (Semi-Arid: 12.00° S, 42.63° W). The results show that soiling is moderate in all 3-regions, for example with 0.1%/day < SRate < 0.2%/day for Belo Horizonte. Precipitation dominates the cleaning of the modules in the summertime in this climate zone, while it is the major factor year-round in Rio Grande do Sul. Wind is the major issue mitigating the soiling accumulation for the Bahia installation. The methodology incorporates several key refinements, including the normalization and adjustment for the meteorological parameters (temperature, irradiance, wind, precipitation). The evaluations include the region-specific differing effects of non-uniform soiling, natural cleaning, and ambient temperatures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Monitoring agroecosystem productivity and phenology at a national scale: A metric assessment framework

Effective measurement of seasonal variations in the timing and amount of production is critical to managing spatially heterogeneous agroecosystems in a changing climate. Although numerous technologies for such measurements are available, their relationships to one another at a continental extent are unknown. Using data collected from across the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network and other networks, we investigated correlations among key metrics representing primary production, phenology, and carbon fluxes in croplands, grazing lands, and crop-grazing integrated systems across the continental U.S. Metrics we examined included gross primary productivity (GPP) estimated from eddy covariance (EC) towers and modelled from the Landsat satellite, Landsat NDVI, and vegetation greenness (Green Chromatic Coordinate, GCC) from tower-mounted PhenoCams for 2017 and 2018. Overall, our analysis compared production dynamics estimated from three independent ground and remote platforms using data for 34 agricultural sites constituting 51 site-years of co-located time series. Pairwise sensor comparisons across all four metrics revealed stronger correlation and lower root mean square error (RMSE) between end of season (EOS) dates (Pearson R ranged from 0.6 to 0.7 and RMSE from 32.5 to 67.8) than start of season (SOS) dates (0.46 to 0.69 and 40.4 to 66.2). Overall, moderate to high correlations between SOS and EOS metrics complemented one another except at some lower productivity grazing land sites where estimating SOS can be challenging. Growing season length estimates derived from 16-day satellite GPP (179.1 days) were significantly longer than those from PhenoCam G CC (70.4 days, p adj < 0.0001) and EC GPP (79.6 days, p adj < 0.0001). Landscape heterogeneity did not explain differences in SOS and EOS estimates. Annual integrated estimates of productivity from EC GPP and PhenoCam G CC diverged from those estimated by Landsat GPP and NDVI at sites where annual production exceeds 1000 gC/m –2 yr –1 . Based on our results, we developed a “metric assessment framework” that articulates where and how metrics from satellite, eddy covariance and PhenoCams complement, diverge from, or are redundant with one another. The framework was designed to optimize instrumentation selection for monitoring, modeling, and forecasting ecosystem functioning with the ultimate goal of informing decision-making by land managers, policy-makers, and industry leaders working at multiple scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A spatiotemporally explicit and scalable indicator of intact lands across the conterminous United States, 1986–2023

Globally, ecologically intact areas are increasingly scarce. Agricultural expansion into previously uncultivated areas drives the loss of intact lands that might otherwise exhibit high levels of ecological integrity. Thus, the absence of cultivation can be an indicator of intact lands as measured from remote sensing data and thematic maps. Our objective for this study was to develop and compare tractable approaches based on remotely sensed satellite data to map spatial patterns of potentially intact lands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Using annual cultivation probabilities derived from satellite observations, we classified and mapped potentially intact lands across CONUS from 1986 to 2023 at 30 m resolution. We created three maps, first by applying a constant cultivation probability threshold across CONUS, second by varying the threshold state-by-state to maximize state-level overall accuracies, and third by equalizing the state-level user's and producer's accuracies to minimize classification bias. Validation against 800,000+ independent ground samples resulted in CONUS-level overall accuracies ≥85% for the roughly 660 million ha of potentially intact land. Map accuracy varied with the proportion of potentially intact lands across regions, with the Pacific-Mountain and Great Plains regions exhibiting the highest accuracies, while Eastern CONUS exhibited a greater mix of potentially intact and non-intact lands and more moderate map accuracies. These novel maps and approaches can be adapted to different spatiotemporal extents to support conservation and production decisions ranging from species and ecosystems protection to reducing land conversion and climate mitigation.

agriculture↗

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013–2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. Furthermore, these results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Win-win transportation strategies for India: Linking air pollution and climate mitigation

Here, this article analyzes road transport in India to explore linkages between air pollution and climate change policies in the transportation sector. Five teams modeled five policy scenarios – fuel efficiency, electrification, alternative fuels, modal shifts, and moderation in transport demand – to explore which policy brings the largest synergetic effects in reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) emissions. The teams also modeled the comprehensive scenario which included policy measures from individual scenarios. The paper concludes that all of the measures provide strong co-benefits in reducing air pollutant and CO 2 emissions. The modeling results show that increased energy efficiency of passenger and freight vehicles has the largest protentional for reducing both CO 2 and PM 2.5 emissions. It is possible to reach even a larger reduction of air pollutants and CO 2 emissions by combining several policy measures in the comprehensive scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strategies for microgrid operation under real-world conditions

Microgrids are an increasingly relevant technology for integrating renewable energy sources into electricity systems. Based on a microgrid implementation in California, in this study we investigate microgrid operation under real-world conditions. These conditions have not yet been considered in combination and encompass energy charges, demand charges, export limits, as well as uncertainty about future electricity demand and generation in the microgrid. Under these conditions, we evaluate the performance of two frequently applied groups of strategies for microgrid operation. The first group is composed of proactive strategies that optimize decisions based on forecasts of future electricity generation and demand. The second group includes reactive strategies that make operational decisions based exclusively on the current state of the microgrid. We evaluate the performance of the strategies under varying operational parameters, forecast accuracies, and microgrid configurations—well beyond our Californian showcase. Our results confirm the expectation that proactive strategies outperform reactive ones in the majority of settings. Yet, reactive strategies can perform better under short control intervals or under moderate prediction errors of PV generation or demand. Furthermore, the interplay between real-world conditions and operational strategies reveals several additional insights for research on microgrid operation. First, we find that demand charges and export limits decisively affect microgrid performance. Second, the impact of forecast errors is highly non-linear and non-monotonous. Third, escalating negative interactions between forecast errors and demand charges make proactive strategies benefit from longer control intervals. This result is contrary to existing best practice, which promotes short control intervals to minimize the impact of uncertainty.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗