Results for “difference scaling” — Page 48

NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity cycles by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Synergy↗

NASA NTRS2019

Consensus on Aquatic Primary Productivity Field Protocols for Satellite Validation and Model Synthesis

The NASA PACE project, in conjunction with the IOCCG, EUMETSAT, and JAXA, have initiated an Aquatic Primary Productivity working group, with the aim to develop community consensus on multiple methods for measuring aquatic primary productivity used for satellite validation and model synthesis. A workshop to commence the working group efforts was held December 05-07, 2018 at the University Space Research Association headquarters in Columbia, MD U.S.A., bringing together 26 active researchers from 16 institutions. The group discussed the primary differences, nuances, scales, uncertainties, definitions, and best practices for measurements of primary productivity derived from in situ/on-deck/laboratory radio/stable isotope incubations, dissolved oxygen concentrations (from incubations or autonomous platforms such as floats or gliders), oxygen-argon ratios, triple oxygen isotope, natural fluorescence, and FRRF/ETR/kinetic analysis. These discussions highlighted the necessity to move the community forward towards the establishment of climate-quality primary productivity measurements that follow uniform protocols, which is imperative to ensure that existing and future measurements can be compared, assimilated, and their uncertainties determined for model development and validation. The specific deliverable resulting from of this activity will be a protocol document, published in coordination with the IOCCG. This presentation will discuss the findings of the meeting, and address future activities of the working group.

Vandermeulen, Ryan A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Synergy of Observations and Dynamo Models to Understand and Predict Solar Activity Cycles

The long-standing problem of understanding the evolution of the global magnetic fields that drive solar activity through different temporal scales is becoming more tractable because, in addition to 400 years of sunspot records, we now have almost 4 solar cycles of magnetic field observations. These observations allow us to discern physical connections between dynamo model variables and observations using data assimilation analysis. In particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter approach takes into account uncertainties in both observations and modeling and allows us to make reliable forecasts of solar cycle activity by using a relatively simple non-linear dynamical model of the solar dynamo. To expand this approach for more complex 2D and 3D dynamo modeling, it is necessary to decompose the observed synoptic magnetograms into poloidal and toroidal field components. In this presentation I will present initial results on magnetogram decomposition and assimilation of magnetogram data into dynamo modeling.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Optimization of a Remote Sensing Energy Balance Method over Different Canopy Applied at Global Scale

Parameterization methods which calculate turbulent heat and water fluxes with thermal remote sensing data were evaluated in the revised remote sensing surface energy balance system (SEBS) model (Chen et al., 2013). The model calculates sensible heat (H) based on the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) and determines latent heat (LE) as the residual of energy balance. We examined the uncertainties of H and LE in the SEBS model due to five key parameters at the local station point scale. Observations at 27 flux towers located in seven land cover types (needle-leaf forest, broad leaf forest, shrub, savanna, grassland, cropland, and sparsely vegetated land) and an artificial intelligence particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was combined to calibrate the five parameters (leaf drag coefficient, leaf heat transfer coefficients, roughness length for soil, and two parameters for ground heat calculation) in the SEBS model. The root-mean-square error at the site scale was reduced by 9 W/sq.m for H, and 92 W/sq.m for LE, and their correlation coefficients were increased by 0.07 (H) and 0.11 (LE) after using the calibrated parameters. The updated model validation was further conducted globally for the remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) calculations. Overestimation of SEBS global ET was significantly improved by using the optimized values of the parameters. The results suggested PSO was able to consistently locate the global optimum of the SEBS model, and appears to be capable of solving the ET model optimization problem.

Chen, Xuelong↗

NASA NTRS2021

Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Optimal Landsat Data for Burn Severity Index Calculations: Implications for High Northern Latitudes Wildfire Research

Satellite remote sensing has been widely used for the evaluation of wildfire burn severity in various ecosystems. While a variety of remote sensing-based burn severity indices have been developed, the Landsat-based differ-enced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) presents the most widely-used approach to burn severity assessment for fire research and management. Although dNBR-based approaches have been continuously updated, including the development of the relative dNBR (RdNBR) and the Relativized Burn Ratio (RBR), one key obstacle for the reliable applications of the burn severity indices in the high northern latitudes has not been adequately addressed. Specifically, optimal Landsat image pairs are very rarely available for the calculation of the burn severity indices in certain regions of the high northern latitudes (HNL), resulting in the burn severity index outputs calculated for a large number of wildfires being considerably affected by non-fire-related factors. The suboptimal selection of image pairs may have partially contributed to the lack of consistency in the performance of the burn severity indices in the HNL regions. In this paper, we systematically evaluated the impacts of sub-optimal image pairs on signal stability through two sets of analyses conducted at different spatial scales. First, at the regional scale, we examined the burn severity indices calculated for a selection of wildfires in Alaska. Here, we demonstrate the inconsistent performance of the same index calculated based on Landsat data that are typically considered as “optimal”. In addition, we show that the calculated indices may be more prone to the negative impacts of these inconsistencies, thus leading to reduced reliability, when there is limited Landsat data availability. Second, at the continental scale, we show that certain areas in the HNL, especially Alaska during the pre-2000 era, are subject to the potentially strong negative impact associated with the limited data availability. Through systematically analyzing this issue, we hope to not only divert more attention to it but also to provide potential solutions, based on which further improvements that may be of particular importance for research on Arctic wildfires could be made.

Dong Chen↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Test Results for the SEA Ice Crystal Detector (ICD) under SLD Conditions at the NASA IRT

The Science Engineering Associates hot-wire Ice Crystal Detector was tested under Appendix C and Supercooled Large Drop Conditions at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel, with the purpose of comparing the measurements to the tunnel LWC calibration, and to test the performance of the mixed-phase retrievals of the probe. The liquid water content measured by the total water content sensor of the probe agreed well with the tunnel calibration over a wide range of MVDs, not unexpectedly since the tunnel was calibrated with a similar Multiwire hot-wire probe. A scale factor difference of about 7% was attributed to the lack of an efficiency correction for the Ice Crystal Detector at smaller median volume diameters, and typical sample area uncertainties of liquid water content devices. In addition, the simultaneous equations that are used to retrieve liquid and ice water contents were tested under liquid and glaciated conditions. Using constant ice and water efficiencies for each wire, the equations were found to produce a large and false ice water content retrieval in large median volume diameter liquid cases. By applying a liquid efficiency to the liquid water content sensor that varied with median volume diameter, retrievals were improved such that false ice water content was less than ±10% of the total water content out to the 460 μm median volume diameter limit of the testing. The probe was also tested in glaciated conditions by freezing out a small median volume diameter spray. Using constant ice efficiencies for the two sensors provided from aircraft measurements, the retrieved ice water content was about 40% higher than expected for the case presented, likely due to the ice efficiencies that were used from aircraft measurements of natural clouds being too low for the tunnel’s glaciated sprays. Application of ice efficiencies that vary with particle size and potentially other parameters will be explored for future improvement of retrievals.

Air Craft Icing↗

NASA NTRS2021

Test Results for the SEA Ice Crystal Detector (ICD) under SLD Conditions at the NASA IRT

The Science Engineering Associates hot-wire Ice Crystal Detector was tested under Appendix C and Supercooled Large Drop Conditions at the NASA Icing Research Tunnel, with the purpose of comparing the measurements to the tunnel LWC calibration, and to test the performance of the mixed-phase retrievals of the probe. The liquid water content measured by the total water content sensor of the probe agreed well with the tunnel calibration over a wide range of MVDs, not unexpectedly since the tunnel was calibrated with a similar Multiwire hot-wire probe. A scale factor difference of about 7% was attributed to the lack of an efficiency correction for the Ice Crystal Detector at smaller median volume diameters, and typical sample area uncertainties of liquid water content devices. In addition, the simultaneous equations that are used to retrieve liquid and ice water contents were tested under liquid and glaciated conditions. Using constant ice and water efficiencies for each wire, the equations were found to produce a large and false ice water content retrieval in large median volume diameter liquid cases. By applying a liquid efficiency to the liquid water content sensor that varied with median volume diameter, retrievals were improved such that false ice water content was less than ±10% of the total water content out to the 460 μm median volume diameter limit of the testing. The probe was also tested in glaciated conditions by freezing out a small median volume diameter spray. Using constant ice efficiencies for the two sensors provided from aircraft measurements, the retrieved ice water content was about 40% higher than expected for the case presented, likely due to the ice efficiencies that were used from aircraft measurements of natural clouds being too low for the tunnel’s glaciated sprays. Application of ice efficiencies that vary with particle size and potentially other parameters will be explored for future improvement of retrievals.

o Aircraft Icing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Secondary Craters to Assess Strength Differences Between Neighboring Surface Units

An issue with Martian remote sensing studies is the difficulty inferring surface and crustal material properties. For direct information we rely on the instruments of landed missions, like InSight, and extrapolate to other locations. To apply that extrapolation, we would like to use a methodology that can benefit from remote sensing data. We are exploring using secondary craters, which are often thought of as nuisances when determining accurate ages, to calculate crustal properties. The upside of secondary craters is that they are from ejecta blocks moving at relatively lower speeds, this lets them reside in a different crater scaling regime [1], one that is more sensitive to the crust’s effective strength (Yeff) and porosity/internal friction (through the μ and KD terms [A]).

Mars↗

NASA NTRS2022

Solar Irradiance Variability Monitor for the Galileo Solar Space Telescope Mission: Concept and Challenges

Long and reliable total solar irradiance (TSI) time series is one of the essential parameters for understanding solar contributions to climate change. The minor fluctuations of TSI in long timescales could impact the energy balance. Despite the improvement of accurate measurements provided by the instruments, at the time, long-term TSI variability and its effects had not been established. The space-borne radiometer era provided observations in short timescales from minutes to years. Therefore, this study presents an overview of irradiance observations, highlighting the importance of following its variability in different time scales. In this context, the Galileo Solar Space Telescope that has been developed by the Institute for Space Research (INPE), Brazil, includes the Irradiance Monitor Module with a radiometer cavity like the classical design and a next-generation compact radiometer.

total solar irradiance (TSI)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

NASA NTRS2022

Characterizing Aerosol From Space With the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (Modis) on the Terra and Aqua Satellites

Aerosols, the small, suspended liquid and solid particles in the atmosphere, have myriad effects on climate, weather, and air quality. When the NASA Earth-Observing System’s (EOS) Terra and Aqua satellites launched in 1999 and 2002, they each included many advanced sensors that have been used for aerosol research. In particular, the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) deployed on both satellites, has provided key data relating to aerosol loading and relative aerosol type on the global scale. Three different algorithms, known as “Dark Target”, “Deep Blue” and “MAIAC”, use different subsets of MODIS measurements and different assumptions to create various products such as Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), fine mode fraction (FMF) and single scattering albedo (SSA). Although all three derive AOD in cloud-free conditions, each algorithm has different strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the globe and under different conditions. Here, we provide a short summary of each algorithm, description of products, and basic information about downloading and using the products. We also provide some examples of how MODIS aerosol products are used. Finally, we add a quick discussion about how these algorithms and products will continue after MODIS leaves orbit.

MODIS↗

NASA NTRS2023

Understanding Sun-as-a-Star Variability of Solar Balmer Lines

Precise, high-cadence, long-term records of stellar spectral variability at different temporal scales lead to better understanding of a wide variety of phenomena including stellar atmospheres and dynamos, convective motions, and rotational periods.

solar activity, solar cycle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance Risk Model (PRisM) Proof-of-Concept: An Operational Decision Support Tool to Predict Crew Performance in Space from Available Performance Tests

The Crew Health and Performance-Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA) team at NASA Glenn Research Center has developed a range of tools to evaluate astronaut health during spaceflight and to optimize the medical set required for missions. Among these, the Performance Risk Model (PRisM) represents a novel advancement, extending CHP-PRA’s focus beyond medical systems into the domain of human performance. Such tool could be pivotal in optimizing astronaut capabilities during space travel, thereby enhancing overall mission success. PRisM leverages data from well-established performance assessments conducted during previous crewed space missions and Earth analogs to strategically predict outcomes for planned tasks, even when direct performance testing has not been conducted for those specific tasks. To evaluate performance, PRisM references the various metrics outlined in NASA-STD-3001 and employs a methodology to integrate different performance scales. This framework analyzes the contribution of various human system task categories (HSTCs) to task execution and compares these contributions to the HSTCs’ involvement in other known tests. The model further employs a Monte Carlo simulation to sample performance scores from their distribution in operationally relevant tests such as those in Mulavara et al. (2018) and, by leveraging similarities in HSTC involvement, transfers this knowledge to actual mission tasks, such as those outlined in the "Human Exploration of Mars: Preliminary List of Crew Tasks”. The current PRisM proof-of-concept includes analyses of the impact of exercise and specific medications on astronauts’ performance, with provisions to incorporate additional countermeasures as data becomes available. Furthermore, the tool is customizable to include any system necessary to fully encompass the domain of human systems and can be adapted to evaluate performance for any spaceflight activities as requested by operational stakeholders. PRisM has the potential to assist the Human Research Program in exploring the capabilities trade space for optimized crew performance.

performance modeling↗

NASA NTRS2026

High Temperature Dielectric Properties and Differential Scanning Calorimetry of Lunar Simulants

To guide development of microwave process technology that could be used during in situ construction on the Moon, we measured the high-temperature basic dielectric properties (εʹ and εʺ) of 17 lunar simulants and related materials. In order to confidently use these data one needs to understand the data’s strengths and weaknesses. Therefore, a goal of this publication is to provide insights into the comparative effects of sample composition, pre-treatments, experimental variables, high temperatures, and other factors on the measured response. The dielectric measurements were performed using the cavity perturbation method over a temperature range between room temperature to 1000 °C, or higher, and provided the real and imaginary components of permittivity at six frequencies. The utility of the original values was limited by the varying density of the pellets used in the measurement. Therefore, all of the εʹ and εʺ measurements at the frequency of 2466 MHz have been scaled to a constant density, 1.75 g/cm 3 . Here the data are presented as graphs chosen to aid analysis within and across simulant groups. To gain additional insight into the processes happening at the elevated temperatures in the dielectric measurements, heat capacity data was obtained using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) on several of the simulant materials. Our data show that over the frequency range 397 MHz – 2985 MHz a material’s behavior does not greatly change, as compared to the scale of differences observed between lunar mare and highland simulants at high temperatures. For example at 1000 °C, the mare simulant JSC-1A absorbs 10 times more power than the highland simulant NUW-LHT-5M. We observe that as melting temperatures are reached both permittivity and dielectric loss rise non-linearly, helping to explain thermal runaway during microware heating. Our data show that even less than a few weight % of many non-lunar minerals, and the use of mixtures in simulants can affect the dielectric behavior at higher temperatures. A comparison of our results with published dielectric data for Apollo samples and with remote sensing of the Moon supports the conclusion the simulants and lunar material at room temperature have very similar dielectric values.

Differential Scanning Calorimetry↗

NASA NTRS2018

Differing Properties of Two Ion‐Scale Magnetopause Flux Ropes

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

L. Alm↗

DOE OSTI2020

Environmental impact of national and subnational carbon policies in China based on a multi-regional dynamic CGE model

Carbon policies are important not only for mitigating global climate change, but also for controlling local and regional air pollution. The large regional disparities in economic development and air pollution across China calls for regionally differentiated policies. Previous studies have not systematically investigated the environmental impacts of regional carbon policies in China covering different spatial scales. This study constructs a multi-regional dynamic computable general quilibrium (CGE) model covering 30 provinces of China to assess the impacts of national and subnational carbon polices on CO2 emissions and co-emitted air pollutants from 2020 to 2050. We consider one national carbon policy which aims to achieve China’s 2030 national CO2 abatement target, as well as three regional policies with the same policy stringency as the national one but only applied to eastern China (EP), the Jiangsu-Shanghai-Zhejiang area (JSZP), and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area (BTHP), respectively. We find that regional policies (EP, JSZP, and BTHP) are as effective in reducing CO2 emissions in their targeted regions as the national policy. However, they lead to an increase in CO2 emissions in untargeted regions (the so-called “emissions leakage”). The CO2 leakage rates, which depend on the policy spatial coverage, are 4%, 13%, and 65% for EP, JSZP, and BTHP, respectively, in 2050. Compared with CO2, changes in air pollutant emissions, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), exhibit a similar pattern under all policy scenarios, but the magnitude of change is significantly smaller. Transportation, thermal power, and some energy intensive industries are the three largest contributors to CO2 and air pollutant emission reductions. Our results suggest that regional carbon policy is effective in reducing CO2 and air pollutant emissions in the targeted regions, and extending the spatial coverage or increasing policy stringency can largely inhibit emissions leakage.

Zhang, Wenwen↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using Machine Learning to Track Objects Across Cameras

Video surveillance is one of the most important technologies used by the International Atomic Energy Agency in international safeguards. At large, complicated facilities, multiple surveillance cameras are deployed to monitor the transfer of safeguards-relevant objects across the site. During inspections, all surveillance videos are reviewed to ensure the objects are not manipulated or diverted during transfer, a laborious, time-consuming task. This work describes using deep machine learning algorithms to track objects automatically across multiple cameras, greatly improving the efficiency of the review process. The fundamental problem in this object tracking task across multiple cameras is how to associate the same object, which may show extreme intra-class variations, such as viewpoints, occlusions, and various scales, in different and even non-overlapped cameras. Object re-identification (Re-ID) in nuclear facility video surveillance is even more challenging than classic person or vehicle Re-ID problems because different instances in the same category may display an identical appearance. One observation from nuclear facility surveillance videos is that all objects must be carted (e.g., via forklift) to move. Therefore, the spatial context information of an object, which provides the feature from the carrier, is critical for the object Re-ID task. This work proposes a two-stream convolutional neural networks model that takes features of objects and their surrounding regions into account. Moreover, the custom videos usually are gleaned from different scenes from the training data, which may have extreme variations in illumination changes and/or cluttered backgrounds. Directly applying the trained model to custom videos will dramatically decrease the performance. To tackle this problem, an advanced domain adaptation technique is proposed to mitigate the gap between the data taken from different scenes. The proposed framework will track objects of interest across a nuclear complex. The resulting tracks can be used in further analyses, such as event/activity recognition, anomaly detection, etc.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗