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DOE OSTI2021

METHODOLOGY AND APPLICATION OF PHYSICAL SECURITY EFFECTIVENESS BASED ON DYNAMIC FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELING

This paper describes ongoing work within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to optimize security and cost of nuclear power plants (NPPs). It reviews the conservatisms in conventional physical security posture and regulations. It introduces the dynamic risk assessment tool developed at INL, Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD). The dynamic assessment methodology leverages EMRALD to process results of force-on-force (FOF) simulations and crediting safety mitigation actions from probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models as well as diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) mitigation strategies. Timing information from these simulations are compared against the available time to perform mitigations obtained from Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5) simulations. To illustrate the methodology, a station blackout (SBO) attack scenario was modeled in commercially available FOF simulation tools. The simulation results provide valuable insights into possible attack outcomes and as the probabilistic risk of a core damage event given these outcomes. Safety mitigation procedures were modeled in EMRALD, and were dependent on the attack outcomes by considering human operator uncertainties. RELAP5 simulations incorporating human and hardware uncertainties were performed to estimate the distribution of time-to-core damage. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, plant mitigation strategies provide significantly high-likelihood of preventing radiological release. The proposed modeling and simulation framework of integrating FLEX equipment with FOF models enables the NPPs to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring (Research Performance Progress Report Q2 2021)

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring (Final Report)

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Report Q3FY21 - High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO 2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimized Deep Ensemble for Uncertainty Quantification of Deep Neural Networks: a System Safety Case Study on Sodium Fast Reactor Thermal Stratification Modeling

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are increasingly important to scientific computing and engineering system simulations. Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) for DNNs is critical in safety-sensitive engineering domains. Traditional Deep Ensemble (DE) methods, while easy to implement, frequently suffer from poorly calibrated uncertainty estimates and limited predictive accuracy due to reliance on fixed architectures with varied weight initializations. To address these issues, we introduce a workflow that combines Bayesian Optimization (BO) and DE. The workflow is modular, scalable, and integrates parallel BO initialized with Sobol sequences to individually optimize the hyperparameters of each ensemble member. This method enhances ensemble diversity, improves predictive accuracy, and provides reliable uncertainty estimates. We evaluate the proposed BODE approach in a sodium fast reactor thermal stratification modeling case study, where we used a densely connected convolutional neural network to predict turbulent viscosity during the reactor transient with consideration of data noise. We benchmark its performance against several optimization approaches, including baseline deep ensemble, evolutionary algorithm-optimized ensemble, ensemble formed via random search combined with greedy selection, and a BO ensemble using random initialization. Here, our results demonstrate superior performance of the developed BODE approach. In noise-free scenarios, BODE notably reduces incorrect aleatoric uncertainty and significantly enhances predictive accuracy. Under conditions of 5% and 10% Gaussian noise, BODE adaptively quantifies uncertainty proportional to data noise, achieving up to an 80% reduction in root mean square error compared to baseline methods and producing well-calibrated prediction intervals.

Bayesian optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Process Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of the Modular Staged Pressurized Oxy-Combustion (SPOC) Power Plant for Biomass

This work describes the process design and techno-economic analysis (TEA) of the modular SPOC power plant for biomass firing and coal-biomass co-firing. Two Rankine cycles were considered: a supercritical steam cycle (242 bar, 593°C, 593°C) with 550 MWe net output and a subcritical cycle (166 bar, 566°C, 566°C) with 200 MWe net output. For both cases, 95% carbon capture was modeled, and hybrid poplar biomass was chosen to generate carbon-negative power. In addition, the supercritical 500 MWe case included a 25% biomass co-firing (carbon neutral) case. For both cycles, a 100% Powder River Basin coal firing case was used for comparison purposes. In the SPOC process, oxygen is produced via a cryogenic air separation unit (ASU) and the heat generated from the compression of air is integrated into the steam cycle and utilized for boiler feed water pre-heating. Unique to the SPOC process, the boilers are pressurized and arranged in a series-parallel configuration, with minimized flue gas recirculation. The flue gas is cooled and scrubbed in the direct-contact cooler (DCC) column, and the moisture in the flue gas is condensed, leaving the bottom of the DCC at a sufficiently high temperature such that it can be used for boiler feed water pre-heating, improving plant thermal efficiency. Following drying and purification, CO2 in the flue gas is at the purity required for storage or utilization. The performance data were obtained from process modelling via Aspen Plus®. The stream data from Aspen Plus® were used as an input for the AACE Class 5 cost study. Ultimately, the capital costs, Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE), and cost of CO2 captured and avoided were obtained. The HHV efficiency of the carbon negative 550 MWe supercritical SPOC case (34.8%) was clearly above those reported by NETL for the BECCS baseline cases of supercritical pulverized coal with capture (B12B, 31.5%) and the 49% biomass co-firing case with capture (PA3, 29.2%). The HHV efficiency of the carbon-negative subcritical plant is also higher than the subcritical baseline PC plant with capture (case B11B.95) presented by NETL (32% vs 29.7%). The LCOE for the SPOC 100% biomass case was similar to the LCOE for the BECCS 49% biomass with carbon capture case ($147/MWh), and the SPOC carbon neutral case LCOE was lower ($110/MWh) than the cost for the NETL baseline SC coal firing case with 90% carbon capture ($114/MWh).

Magalhaes, Duarte↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the Level of Inter-Sectoral Policy Integration for Governance in the Water–Energy Nexus: A Comparative Study of Los Angeles and Beijing

As concerns around water scarcity and energy security increase, so too has interest in the connections between these resources, through a concept called the water–energy nexus. Efforts to improve the integration of water and energy management and to understand their cross-sector relevance are growing. In particular, this paper develops a better empirical understanding on the extent to which governance settings hinder and/or enable policy coherence between the water and energy sectors through a comparative analysis of two case studies, namely, Los Angeles County, California, the United States, and the city of Beijing, China. This paper examines the extent to which the institutional context enables policy coordination within (vertically) and between (horizontally) the water and energy sectors in Beijing and Los Angeles. To do so, we propose a framework for analyzing policy integration for the water energy nexus based on environmental policy integration (EPI). The results highlight the multiple and flexible approaches of EPI in nexus governance, not least with regards to horizontal and vertical policy integration, but also in terms of explicit (i.e., intended) and implicit (i.e., unintended) coordination. The level of nexus-focused policy integration is highly dependent on the motivation at the local context and the criteria to evaluate policy success in each sector.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comparing machine learning and interpolation methods for loop-level calculations

The need to approximate functions is ubiquitous in science, either due to empirical constraints or high computational cost of accessing the function. In high-energy physics, the precise computation of the scattering cross-section of a process requires the evaluation of computationally intensive integrals. A wide variety of methods in machine learning have been used to tackle this problem, but often the motivation of using one method over another is lacking. Comparing these methods is typically highly dependent on the problem at hand, so we specify to the case where we can evaluate the function a large number of times, after which quick and accurate evaluation can take place. We consider four interpolation and three machine learning techniques and compare their performance on three toy functions, the four-point scalar Passarino-Veltman D_0 D 0 function, and the two-loop self-energy master integral M. We find that in low dimensions (d = 3), traditional interpolation techniques like the Radial Basis Function perform very well, but in higher dimensions (d=5, 6, 9) we find that multi-layer perceptrons (a.k.a neural networks) do not suffer as much from the curse of dimensionality and provide the fastest and most accurate predictions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Intelligent Hydro-informatics into an effective Early Warning System for risk-informed urban flood management

The urban drainage system constantly facing flooding issues in coastal and urban areas. Robust and accurate urban flood management, particularly considering fast-moving compound floods, is crucial to minimize the impact of flood disasters in coastal cities. Till now, Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) lacks an effective means of urban flood management because of flood risk communication among residents. Existing flood risk communication tools rely on post-disaster flood model outcomes and data. Therefore, this research proposes a real-time Early Urban Flooding Warning System (EUFWS) integrated with a user-friendly web and app interface. The backbone of this system consists of flood models developed using machine learning (ML) algorithms, combined with big data and Web-GIS visualization, with ML serving as the core for constructing the EUFWS. EUFWS offer several key advantages: they are available at all times, accessible from anywhere, and provide a real-time, multi-user working platform. Additionally, the system is flexible, allowing for the easy addition of components and services and scalable, adjusting to workload demands. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. EUFWS have been successfully deployed in Thu Duc City, Vietnam, as a case study and are operating effectively. Research results indicate that EUFWS supported decision-makers to be effectively risk informed and make intelligent decisions during urban flood emergencies. Finally, this underscores the significant potential of integrating ML and information technology to enhance the management of smart urban drainage systems in flood-prone cities worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

A microgrid deployment framework to support drayage electrification

The electrification of heavy-duty commercial vehicles (HDCVs) is key to enhancing air quality and reducing urban air pollution, but it also imposes significant demands on an electric grid not designed for such high loads. Without complementary infrastructure, electrification may yield limited air quality improvements. This article explores the critical role of microgrids—integrating solar photovoltaics and battery storage—in supporting HDCV electrification. We present an integrated framework to identify viable microgrid sites in a given region, estimate deployment costs, and optimize power use to reduce dependence on the grid. As a case study, we apply the framework to the region around the Port of Savannah, GA, USA, demonstrating how targeted microgrid deployment can enhance grid capacity, improve energy resiliency, and support electrified freight transport.

Electrical engineering↗

DOE OSTI2022

Projected network performance for multiple isotopes using next-generation xenon monitoring systems

Since about 2000 (Bowyer et al., 1998), radioxenon monitoring systems have been under development and testing for the verification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT). Operation of the systems since then has resulted in development of a next-generation of systems that are nearly ready for operational deployment. By 2010, the need to screen out civilian sources was well known (Auer et al., 2010; Saey, 2009), and isotopic ratio approaches were soon considered (Kalinowski et al., 2014) to identify specific sources. New generation systems are expected to improve the ability to verify the absence of nuclear tests by using isotopic ratios when multiple isotopes are detected. In this work, thousands of releases were simulated to compute the global detection probability of 131m Xe, 133m Xe, 133 Xe, and 135 Xe at 39 noble gas systems in the International Monitoring System (IMS) for both current and next-generation systems. Three release scenarios are defined at 1 h, 1 d, and 10 d past a 1 kt TNT equivalent 235U explosion event. Multiple cases using from one part in a million to the complete release of the xenon isotopic activity are evaluated for each scenario. Coverage maps and global integrals comparing current and next-generation monitoring systems are presented showing that next-generation noble gas systems will create measurable improvements in the IMS. The global detection probability for 133 Xe is shown to be strong in all scenarios, but only modestly improved by next-generation equipment. However, the detection probability for 131m Xe and 133m Xe increased to about 50% in different scenarios, providing a second detectable isotope for many events. As anticipated from shorter sampling intervals, the expected number of detecting samples roughly doubled and the expected number of detecting stations rose by approximately 50% for all release scenarios. Thus, it might be anticipated that future events would consist of multiple 133 Xe detections and one or more second isotope detections. In conclusion, signals of this nature should increase detection confidence, tighten release location estimates, improve rejection of civilian signals, and lessen the impacts from individual systems being offline for maintenance or repair reasons.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hydra: An AI-Based Framework for Interpretable and Portable Data Quality Monitoring

Hydra is an advanced framework designed for training and managing AI models for near real time data quality monitoring at Jefferson Lab. Deployed in all four experimental halls, Hydra has analyzed over 2 million images and has extended its capabilities to offline monitoring and validation. Hydra utilizes computer vision to continually analyze sets of images of monitoring plots generated 24/7 during experiments. Generally, these sets of images are produced at a rate and quantity that is exceedingly difficult for shift crews to effectively monitor. Significant effort has been devoted to enhancing Hydra’s user interface, to ensure that it provides clear, actionable insights for shift workers and other users. Gradient Weighted Class Activation Maps (GradCAM) provide added interpretability, allowing users to visualize important regions of the image for classification. Hydra has been containerized to enable the creation of portable demos and seamless integration with container-based technologies such as Kubernetes and Docker. With the user interface enhancements and containerization, Hydra can be rapidly deployed for new use cases and experiments. This talk will describe the Hydra framework, its user interface and experience, and the challenges inherent in its design and deployment.

Britton, Thomas [Thomas Jefferson National Acceler↗

DOE OSTI2024

Embedded FPGA developments in 130 nm and 28 nm CMOS for machine learning in particle detector readout

Embedded field programmable gate array (eFPGA) technology allows the implementation of reconfigurable logic within the design of an application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC). This approach offers the low power and efficiency of an ASIC along with the ease of FPGA configuration, particularly beneficial for the use case of machine learning in the data pipeline of next-generation collider experiments. An open-source framework called "FABulous" was used to design eFPGAs using 130 nm and 28 nm CMOS technology nodes, which were subsequently fabricated and verified through testing. The capability of an eFPGA to act as a front-end readout chip was assessed using simulation of high energy particles passing through a silicon pixel sensor. A machine learning-based classifier, designed for reduction of sensor data at the source, was synthesized and configured onto the eFPGA. A successful proof-of-concept was demonstrated through reproduction of the expected algorithm result on the eFPGA with perfect accuracy. Finally, further development of the eFPGA technology and its application to collider detector readout is discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Global anomalies of Green's function zeros.

We study global anomalies of nonlocal effective theories proposed to describe symmetry-preserving Luttinger surfaces, i.e., the momentum-space manifolds of Green’s function zeros (GFZs) at zero energy, in strongly interacting fermionic systems. In particular, we focus on the simplest possible cases associated with a gapless Dirac zero, which is the counterpart of the gapless Dirac quasiparticle in weakly interacting systems. These theories may be derived by integrating out low-energy degrees of freedom that do not couple to the relevant gauge field. We discuss the global anomaly, the bulk-boundary correspondence, and the constraint on phases consistent with the anomaly, such as non-Fermi liquids and emergent gapless quasiparticles on Luttinger surfaces. Failing to avoid spontaneous symmetry breaking in the thermodynamical limit inevitably leads to unstable GFZs. We also provide some perspective on why the related nonlocal fermionic effective theory studied recently is not a suitable starting point for a symmetrically gapped phase

Su, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2024

Inertia Estimation Under High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources

Many types of renewable energy sources, especially solar and wind generation, are connected to the electric grid through power-electronic-based interfaces (inverters). These inverter-based resources (IBRs) are mechanically decoupled from the grid, which reduces system inertia and thus may compromise its stability and reliability. In this study, we examine the impact of high penetration of IBRs on the power grid’s inertia. To achieve this, we intentionally introduce disturbances into a simulation case study, such as a step load change, to observe and record the system’s frequency responses. This study offers a nuanced understanding of how the integration of IBRs affects grid stability, and it provides essential guidance for future grid management and resilience strategies.

Yadav, Ajay↗

DOE OSTI2020

Agent-Based Coordination Scheme for PV Integration (ABC4PV)

Renewables and especially photovoltaics (PV) have benefitted significantly from a host of incentives and policies targeted toward enhanced integration and adoption of specific energy technologies. However, with the push to move forward into a subsidy-free market framework, behind-the-meter residential PV applications have generally struggled to retain their value (unlike utility scale and commercial projects) [1]. This project focused on developing control-theoretic solutions aimed at improving the integration and interaction of behind-the-meter residential PV with other distribution system assets (controllable and non-controllable) to enhance the integrated value of residential PV. To this end, a suite of decentralized control methodologies have been developed to enable effective coordination and control of behind-the-meter residential load customers’ PV, battery storage systems (BSS), controllable loads and other similar assets within a distribution feeder. This interaction aims at procuring energy savings and, thus, energy bill savings. The main source of savings is drawn from reducing the effect of demand charge pricing and is realized at the feeder level, assuming community level interaction and management among the aforementioned assets. Optimal control of the assets is implemented with a distributed optimization methodology, leveraging consensus-based algorithms. The results gathered from the optimal control simulations demonstrates that the savings can be duly achieved and the algorithm decision times (to dynamically control asset set points, for example) are fast. As for the overall efficiency of PV+BSS systems, to procure energy savings from curtailment of the demand charge pricing effects, the optimal control is set up so as to minimize the variance of the load for all customers, throughout a feeder and throughout time in a rolling horizon scheduling with model predictive control. The control takes into account inter-temporal electrochemical storage (battery) degradation costs: specifically, we have developed a long-term lifetime model for the BSS that weighs in the effect of the degradation factor in the dispatch formulations, thus, a considerable operating cost that affects energy decision making. The levelized cost of energy (LCOE – redefined for the purpose of quantifying asset integration effectiveness through the customers’ energy cost) is shown to be below the threshold set for the combined PV+BSS topology of $ 0.14/kWh for multiple cases of PV penetration all the way up to 50%, provided that a policy of shared ownership of and savings is in place. Further, the LCOE calculated for the case before the deployment PV+BSS systems is also achievable, i.e. the deployment of PV+BSS, if planned and scheduled optimally. will have no effect on customers’ energy costs. From the control methodology viewpoint, the developed consensus-based algorithms are shown to converge for a wide range of problem cases (spanning normal operating scenarios and contingencies), guaranteeing dispatch solutions under forecasting errors, communication break-downs and cyber-security attacks. The proposed control solutions are scalable and real-time implementable, with dispatch computations and device set-point updates converging in less than 2s in most practical instances of the above events.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Abstract for CRADA among NETL, Mälardalen University, University College Cork (acting through its Tyndall National Institute), and Micro Electricity Generation Association

GeoCoHorT aims to accelerate the transition to 4 th generation district heating and cooling (4GDHC) in Europe and globally, by assessing, optimizing, and demonstrating the integration of shallow geothermal heat extraction with other renewable sources and smart buildings. The target geo-source is ground water from River Shannon (Limerick, Ireland), which will provide both an efficiency and noise-reduction benefit to the micro-district and a method of combatting climate-change-warming of the Shannon Estuary. The heat from this low-temperature source will be recycled and supplied to a smart district located in Limerick, Ireland, through heat pumps powered by renewable electricity and by means of a suitable DH network design. The mandate is to find solutions that work for entire communities in a fair and sustainable manner, with the involvement of the communities themselves to highlight their needs. The project brings together four partners from Ireland, Sweden, and the U.S.A. with strong multi-disciplinary competencies. The Tyndall Institute at University of Cork (UCC) and Mälardalen University (MDU) will design and optimize the 4GDH micro-district system, and the Micro Electricity Generation Association (MEGA) will work with the community to build a sense of ownership of the Climate Challenge and ensure close community involvement. The National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy (NETL) will design the prospective geo-fluid loop to optimize heat-extraction effectiveness with ecological safety and assess the environmental benefits of the proposed solutions. Industrial advisors (Eskilstuna Strängnäs Energi och Miljö (ESEM) and Mimer in Sweden, and Smart MPOWER in Ireland) will steer the technology development to meet the needs of public utilities and consumers. Current infrastructure in the smart district in Limerick (demonstration site of an EU Lighthouse project) will be exploited and modified with support of MEGA, UCC, and MPOWER to integrate micro-DH from low-temperature heat sources, such as the river heat, and to allow increasing penetration of prosumers in the grid. Additional case studies will be developed with the help of industrial advisors to extend the results to other regions (e.g., Sweden and USA) and provide valuable insights for the development of 4GDH worldwide.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Automated Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy Analysis for Multi-Modal Few-Shot Learning

Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) is a powerful tool that allows for the atomic-scale analysis of a materials’ structure, chemistry, and defect domains (Akers et al. 2021). The current generation of microscopes generate vast amounts of data, surpassing the limits of effective manual analysis traditionally performed by domain experts (Spurgeon et al. 2021). While recent strides in machine learning have significantly enhanced the processing of large and intricate datasets acquired through electron microscopy, the prevalent use of proprietary software packages for initial data collection poses a challenge. In many cases, these software packages act as a ‘black box’, constraining user functionality and hindering the output of data in a format that is conducive to seamless integration into machine learning models. This work addresses these challenges by adapting HyperSpy, an open-source Python library, for the analysis and quantification of raw energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) data acquired through STEM. The modified HyperSpy code successfully facilitates user-defined segmentation of the data, enabling the integration of atomic %, weight %, and raw EDS spectra for each segmented region into an existing few-shot machine learning model. While initial results reveal discrepancies in quantified atomic and weight percentages when compared to proprietary software, ongoing efforts aim to rectify this issue by refining the fit of the HyperSpy model to the EDS spectra. Overall, this research underscores the potential of open-source tools like HyperSpy to enhance the accessibility of analytical tools, fostering a transparent and user-friendly environment for seamlessly incorporating electron microscopy data into machine learning models.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗