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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

(U) A Tool to Set Up an MCNP6 Input to Use Correlated Sampling with Batch Statistics

Correlated sampling using batch statistics with MCNP6’s tally fluctuation charts (TFCs) is a powerful means of reducing the statistical uncertainties of various combinations of tallies. Because MCNP6 prints a maximum of 20 entries in the TFCs, at least five inputs must be run to obtain the recommended number of at least 100 batches. A new software tool, MAKE_COSUBS, reads an MCNP6 input file and sets up a sequence of input files to be run. The user runs MAKE_COSUBS for the unperturbed and all perturbed MCNP6 inputs, runs MCNP6 for the inputs, and finally analyzes the outputs using COSUBS.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Seeing through noise in power laws

Despite widespread claims of power laws across the natural and social sciences, evidence in data is often equivocal. Modern data and statistical methods reject even classic power laws such as Pareto’s law of wealth and the Gutenberg–Richter law for earthquake magnitudes. We show that the maximum-likelihood estimators and Kolmogorov–Smirnov (K-S) statistics in widespread use are unexpectedly sensitive to ubiquitous errors in data such as measurement noise, quantization noise, heaping and censorship of small values. This sensitivity causes spurious rejection of power laws and biases parameter estimates even in arbitrarily large samples, which explains inconsistencies between theory and data. We show that logarithmic binning by powers of λ > 1 attenuates these errors in a manner analogous to noise averaging in normal statistics and that λ thereby tunes a trade-off between accuracy and precision in estimation. Binning also removes potentially misleading within-scale information while preserving information about the shape of a distribution over powers of λ, and we show that some amount of binning can improve sensitivity and specificity of K-S tests without any cost, while more extreme binning tunes a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity. We therefore advocate logarithmic binning as a simple essential step in power-law inference.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2011

Development of a Multivariable Parametric Cost Analysis for Space-Based Telescopes

Over the past 400 years, the telescope has proven to be a valuable tool in helping humankind understand the Universe around us. The images and data produced by telescopes have revolutionized planetary, solar, stellar, and galactic astronomy and have inspired a wide range of people, from the child who dreams about the images seen on NASA websites to the most highly trained scientist. Like all scientific endeavors, astronomical research must operate within the constraints imposed by budget limitations. Hence the importance of understanding cost: to find the balance between the dreams of scientists and the restrictions of the available budget. By logically analyzing the data we have collected for over thirty different telescopes from more than 200 different sources, statistical methods, such as plotting regressions and residuals, can be used to determine what drives the cost of telescopes to build and use a cost model for space-based telescopes. Previous cost models have focused their attention on ground-based telescopes due to limited data for space telescopes and the larger number and longer history of ground-based astronomy. Due to the increased availability of cost data from recent space-telescope construction, we have been able to produce and begin testing a comprehensive cost model for space telescopes, with guidance from the cost models for ground-based telescopes. By separating the variables that effect cost such as diameter, mass, wavelength, density, data rate, and number of instruments, we advance the goal to better understand the cost drivers of space telescopes.. The use of sophisticated mathematical techniques to improve the accuracy of cost models has the potential to help society make informed decisions about proposed scientific projects. An improved knowledge of cost will allow scientists to get the maximum value returned for the money given and create a harmony between the visions of scientists and the reality of a budget.

Dollinger, Courtnay↗
DOE OSTI2023

Atomistic Simulations of Polydisperse Lignin Melts Using Simple Polydisperse Residue Input Generator

Understanding the physics of lignin will help rationalize its function in plant cell walls as well as aiding practical applications such as deriving biofuels and bioproducts. Here, in this work, we present SPRIG (Simple Polydisperse Residue Input Generator), a program for generating atomic-detail models of random polydisperse lignin copolymer melts i.e., the state most commonly found in nature. Using these models, we use all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to investigate the conformational and dynamic properties of polydisperse melts representative of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) lignin. Polydispersity, branching and monolignol sequence are found to not affect the calculated glass transition temperature, T g . The Flory–Huggins scaling parameter for the segmental radius of gyration is 0.42 ± 0.02, indicating that the chains exhibit statistics that lie between a globular chain and an ideal Gaussian chain. Below T g the atomic mean squared displacements are independent of molecular weight. In contrast, above T g , they decrease with increasing molecular weight. Therefore, a monodisperse lignin melt is a good approximation to this polydisperse lignin when only static properties are probed, whereas the molecular weight distribution needs to be considered while analyzing lignin dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis of the Challenges in Developing Sample-Based Multi-fidelity Estimators for Non-deterministic Models

Multifidelity (MF) uncertainty quantification (UQ) seeks to leverage and fuse information from a collection of models to achieve greater statistical accuracy with respect to a single-fidelity counterpart, while maintaining an efficient use of computational resources. Despite many recent advancements in MF UQ, several challenges remain and these often limit its practical impact in certain application areas. In this manuscript, we focus on the challenges introduced by nondeterministic models to sampling MF UQ estimators. Nondeterministic models produce different responses for the same inputs, which means their outputs are effectively noisy. MF UQ is complicated by this noise since many state-of-the-art approaches rely on statistics, e.g., the correlation among models, to optimally fuse information and allocate computational resources. Here, we demonstrate how the statistics of the quantities of interest, which impact the design, effectiveness, and use of existing MF UQ techniques, change as functions of the noise. With this in hand, we extend the unifying approximate control variate framework to account for nondeterminism, providing for the first time a rigorous means of comparing the effect of nondeterminism on different multifidelity estimators and analyzing their performance with respect to one another. Numerical examples are presented throughout the manuscript to illustrate and discuss the consequences of the presented theoretical results.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hyper Spectral Anomaly Detection

Anomaly detection is a common machine learning (ML) task with growing importance in the fields of imaging, quality assurance, and multiple security related disciplines. Anomaly detection is more difficult than traditional machine learning methods due to the inherent unlabeled nature of the datasets. Existing anomaly detection architectures commonly face challenges with explainability, retaining information related to the relational structure of the data, and false positive rates. Hyperspectral Imaging Anomaly Detection (HSI) is a statistical model that employs vertex and edge weighted graphs to preserve the data’s relationships on different topographical scales. The model is able to generalize from anomaly detection in 2D images to novel datasets related to cyber-security. Furthermore, the use of multi-spectral and other filtering methods results in fewer false positives and increases the explainability of model predictions. When applying HSI to cyber-security datasets, we are able to successfully detect malicious activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty Quantification Enabled by Automatic Differentiation for Hydrodynamic Simulation of Shock‐to‐Detonation Transition in High Explosives

Quantifying the effects of uncertainty in a reactive burn model on the run-to-detonation time in high explosives (HEs) provides a robust methodology for assessing the probability of an HE failing the IHE qualification standard. Moreover, uncertainty quantification helps evaluate whether the model calibration accurately represents data outside the calibration set. This study uses a specialized hydrodynamic simulation code for modeling detonation to determine the run-to-detonation time of the HE PBX 9502 for various impact velocities. To quickly approximate uncertainties in the model, a surrogate was constructed using a Taylor series expansion centered at the mean of the input parameters. To obtain the sensitivities required for constructing the Taylor series, HYP-percomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented. HYPAD is a methodology for infusing existing codes with automatic differentiation capabilities by augmenting variables with one or more imaginary units to compute step-size independent partial derivatives. These derivatives are accurate to machine precision with respect to the implemented numerical algorithm, meaning their accuracy reflects that of the underlying method (e.g., integration or discretization schemes). Using reduced order modeling techniques, the mean and standard deviation of the run-to-detonation time of a shock within PBX 9502 were computed for a number of initial impact velocities. A weighted least squares regression was then performed to obtain a best fit curve and prediction interval for the computed statistics. Historical data points from explosively driven wedge tests were utilized to validate the prediction interval, ensuring its reliability in predicting future outcomes. With this prediction interval and a known safety constraint curve, the most probable point of failure and the probability of failure for the HE PBX 9502 were determined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved information criteria for Bayesian model averaging in lattice field theory

Bayesian model averaging is a practical method for dealing with uncertainty due to model specification. Use of this technique requires the estimation of model probability weights. Here, we revisit the derivation of estimators for these model weights. Use of the Kullback-Leibler divergence as a starting point leads naturally to a number of alternative information criteria suitable for Bayesian model weight estimation. We explore three such criteria, known to the statistics literature before, in detail: a Bayesian analog of the Akaike information criterion which we call the BAIC, the Bayesian predictive information criterion, and the posterior predictive information criterion (PPIC). We compare the use of these information criteria in numerical analysis problems common in lattice field theory calculations. We find that the PPIC has the most appealing theoretical properties and can give the best performance in terms of model-averaging uncertainty, particularly in the presence of noisy data, while the BAIC is a simple and reliable alternative.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cyber-Physical System Implementation for Manufacturing With Analytics in the Cloud Layer

Effective and efficient modern manufacturing operations require the acceptance and incorporation of the fourth industrial revolution, also known as Industry 4.0. Traditional shop floors are evolving their production into smart factories. To continue this trend, a specific architecture for the cyber-physical system is required, as well as a systematic approach to automate the application of algorithms and transform the acquired data into useful information. This work makes use of an approach that distinguishes three layers that are part of the existing Industry 4.0 paradigm: edge, fog, and cloud. Each of the layers performs computational operations, transforming the data produced in the smart factory into useful information. Trained or untrained methods for data analytics can be incorporated into the architecture. A case study is presented in which a real-time statistical control process algorithm based on control charts was implemented. The algorithm automatically detects changes in the material being processed in a computerized numerical control (CNC) machine. The algorithm implemented in the proposed architecture yielded short response times. The performance was effective since it automatically adapted to the machining of aluminum and then detected when the material was switched to steel. The data were backed up in a database that would allow traceability to the line of g-code that performed the machining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Black-box statistical prediction of lossy compression ratios for scientific data

Lossy compressors are increasingly adopted in scientific research, tackling volumes of data from experiments or parallel numerical simulations and facilitating data storage and movement. In contrast with the notion of entropy in lossless compression, no theoretical or data-based quantification of lossy compressibility exists for scientific data. Users rely on trial and error to assess lossy compression performance. As a strong data-driven effort toward quantifying lossy compressibility of scientific datasets, we provide a statistical framework to predict compression ratios of lossy compressors. Our method is a two-step framework where (i) compressor-agnostic predictors are computed and (ii) statistical prediction models relying on these predictors are trained on observed compression ratios. Proposed predictors exploit spatial correlations and notions of entropy and lossyness via the quantized entropy. We study 8+ compressors on 6 scientific datasets and achieve a median percentage prediction error less than 12%, which is substantially smaller than that of other methods while achieving at least a 8.8× speedup for searching for a specific compression ratio and 7.8× speedup for determining the best compressor out of a collection.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Graph Theory and IC Component Design Analysis

Graph analysis in large integrated circuit (IC) designs is an essential tool for verifying design logic and timing via dynamic timing analysis (DTA). IC designs resemble graphs with each logic gate as a vertex and the conductive connections between gates as edges. Using DTA digital statistical correlations, graph condensation, and graph partitioning, it is possible to identify high-entropy component centers and paths within an IC design. Identification of high-entropy component centers (HECC) enables focused DTA, effectively lowering the computational complexity of DTA on large integrated circuit graphs. In this paper, a devised methodology termed IC layout subgraph component center identification (CCI) is used to identify described. CCI lowers DTA computationally complexity by condensing IC graphs into reduced subgraphs in which dominant logic functions are verified.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the use of Graphs for Test Sequence Selection

This report demonstrates that applying graph theory techniques provides a way to obtain sufficient statistics in finding errors when testing complex state machines. It discusses how to define the tests, then demonstrates how to automatically generate test suites that diversify test cases, subject to constraints. If included within a continuous integration approach, these constructs provide an unbiased means to systematically check for errors within the latest controller software release.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Square Root Statistics of Density Matrices and Their Applications

To estimate the degree of quantum entanglement of random pure states, it is crucial to understand the statistical behavior of entanglement indicators such as the von Neumann entropy, quantum purity, and entanglement capacity. These entanglement metrics are functions of the spectrum of density matrices, and their statistical behavior over different generic state ensembles have been intensively studied in the literature. As an alternative metric, in this work, we study the sum of the square root spectrum of density matrices, which is relevant to negativity and fidelity in quantum information processing. In particular, we derive the finite-size mean and variance formulas of the sum of the square root spectrum over the Bures–Hall ensemble, extending known results obtained recently over the Hilbert–Schmidt ensemble.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Differential contagiousness of respiratory disease across the United States

The initial contagiousness of a communicable disease within a given population is quantified by the basic reproduction number, $R_0$. This number depends on both pathogen and population properties. On the basis of compartmental models that reproduce Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) surveillance data, we used Bayesian inference and the next-generation matrix approach to estimate region-specific $R_0$ values for 280 of 384 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the United States (US), which account for 95% of the US population living in urban areas and 82% of the total population. We focused on MSA populations after finding that these populations were more uniformly impacted by COVID-19 than state populations. Our maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates for $R_0$ range from 1.9 to 7.7 and quantify the relative susceptibilities of regional populations to spread of respiratory diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Physics-informed machine learning of the Lagrangian dynamics of velocity gradient tensor

Reduced models describing the Lagrangian dynamics of the velocity gradient tensor (VGT) in homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) are developed under the physics-informed machine learning (PIML) framework. We consider the VGT at both Kolmogorov scale and coarse-grained scale within the inertial range of HIT. Building reduced models requires resolving the pressure Hessian and subfilter contributions, which is accomplished by constructing them using the integrity bases and invariants of the VGT. The developed models can be expressed using the extended tensor basis neural network (TBNN) introduced by Ling et al. [J. Fluid Mech. 807, 155 (2016)]. Physical constraints, such as Galilean invariance, rotational invariance, and incompressibility condition, are thus embedded in the models explicitly. Our PIML models are trained on the Lagrangian data from a high-Reynolds number direct numerical simulation (DNS). To validate the results, we perform a comprehensive out-of-sample test. We observe that the PIML model provides an improved representation for the magnitude and orientation of the small-scale pressure Hessian contributions. Statistics of the flow, as indicated by the joint PDF of second and third invariants of the VGT, show good agreement with the “ground-truth” DNS data. A number of other important features describing the structure of HIT are reproduced by the model successfully. We have also identified challenges in modeling inertial range dynamics, which indicates that a richer modeling strategy is required. This helps us identify important directions for future research, in particular towards including inertial range geometry into the TBNN.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Advances in Kriging-Based Autonomous X-Ray Scattering Experiments

Autonomous experimentation is an emerging paradigm for scientific discovery, wherein measurement instruments are augmented with decision-making algorithms, allowing them to autonomously explore parameter spaces of interest. We have recently demonstrated a generalized approach to autonomous experimental control, based on generating a surrogate model to interpolate experimental data, and a corresponding uncertainty model, which are computed using a Gaussian process regression known as ordinary Kriging (OK). We demonstrated the successful application of this method to exploring materials science problems using x-ray scattering measurements at a synchrotron beamline. Here, we report several improvements to this methodology that overcome limitations of traditional Kriging methods. The variogram underlying OK is global and thus insensitive to local data variation. We augment the Kriging variance with model-based measures, for instance providing local sensitivity by including the gradient of the surrogate model. As with most statistical regression methods, OK minimizes the number of measurements required to achieve a particular model quality. However, in practice this may not be the most stringent experimental constraint; e.g. the goal may instead be to minimize experiment duration or material usage. We define an adaptive cost function, allowing the autonomous method to balance information gain against measured experimental cost. We provide synthetic and experimental demonstrations, validating that this improved algorithm yields more efficient autonomous data collection.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗