Solar Photovoltaic and Storage Supply Chains and Technology and Market Opportunities
This talk will highlight the most recent efforts from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to track solar photovoltaic (PV) and storage supply and demand in the United States and globally, as well as bottom-up calculations of manufacturing costs for facilities across the globe. We will begin with an overview of the global solar PV supply chain and 2022 benchmark input data used for NREL's bottom-up crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin film PV module manufacturing cost models. For the polysilicon, wafer, cell conversion, and module assembly steps of the c-Si supply chain, and for thin film modules, we will review the industry-collected input data and methods used for calculating the costs of goods sold (COGS); research and development (R&D) expenses; and sales, general, and business administration (S, G, and A) expenses. This 2022 benchmark analysis is compiled for state-of-the-art c-Si and thin film PV module manufacturing in several countries and regions; and will also include a quantified summary of the impacts of the manufacturing incentives and tax credits that are available for solar manufacturing and installations within the United States. Next generation technologies that lower PV manufacturing and installation costs, reduce operations and maintenance (O&M) expenses, and improve system energy yield will also be highlighted. We will conclude with projections of solar market penetration to 2050 from NREL's Solar Futures Study and Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) model, which includes solar coupled with lower-cost storage scenarios as well as the range of future cost scenarios for other power generation sources. We look forward to sharing NREL's extensive work in these areas and discussing ideas for future directions.