SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Models, Statistical”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Turbulence and Dispersion in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations over Complex Urban Terrain during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign

Abstract This paper evaluates the representation of turbulence and its effect on transport and dispersion within multiscale and microscale-only simulations in an urban environment. These simulations, run using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the addition of an immersed boundary method, predict transport and mixing during a controlled tracer release from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This work extends the results of a recent study through analysis of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence spectra and their role in accurately simulating wind speed, direction, and tracer concentration. The significance and role of surface heat fluxes and use of the cell perturbation method in the numerical simulation setup are also examined. Our previous study detailed the model development necessary for our multiscale simulations, examined model skill at predicting wind speeds and tracer concentrations, and demonstrated that dynamic downscaling from mesoscale to microscale through a sequence of nested simulations can improve predictions of transport and dispersion relative to a microscale-only simulation forced by idealized meteorology. Here, predictions are compared with observations to assess qualitative agreement and statistical model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction, tracer concentration, and turbulent kinetic energy at locations throughout the city. We also investigate the scale distribution of turbulence and the associated impact on model skill, particularly for predictions of transport and dispersion. Our results show that downscaled large-scale turbulence, which is unique to the multiscale simulations, significantly improves predictions of tracer concentrations in this complex urban environment. Significance Statement Simulations of atmospheric transport and mixing in urban environments have many applications, including pollution modeling for urban planning or informing emergency response following a hazardous release. These applications include phenomena with spatial scales spanning from millimeters to kilometers. Most simulations resolve flow only within the urban area of interest, omitting larger scales of turbulence and regional influences. This study examines a method that resolves both the small and large-scale flow features. We evaluate simulation accuracy by comparing predictions with observations from an experiment involving the release of a tracer gas in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with emphasis on correctly modeling turbulent fluctuations. Our results demonstrate the importance of resolving large-scale flow features when predicting transport and dispersion in urban environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Electron-Impact Ionization of Methane

We report a study of the total ionization of CH_4 by electron impact and its dissociative ionization from the ^2T_2 channel. The calculation of the total ionization cross section uses the improved Binary-Encounter-Dipole model (iBED).(W. A Huo, Phys. Rev. A (submitted for publication).) The dipole Born cross section in the model is expressed in terms of a three-term representation and the optical oscillator strengths are taken from Backx and Van der Wiel.(C. Backx and M. J. Van der Wiel, I Phys. B 18) 3020 (1975). The nuclear dynamics for the dissociation of the ^2T_2 channel is studied using the statistical model. A search of the potential energy surface of the ^2T_2 state of CH_4^+ shows two minima, of C_2v and C_3v symmetries, in agreement with earlier calculations. ((a) K. Takeshita, J. Chem. Phys. 86), 329 (1987). (b) R. F. Frey and E. R. Davidson, J. Chem. Phys. 88, 1775 (1988). The dissociation of the CH_4^+ to CH_3^+ + H goes through a saddle point. Comparison with recent experimental data will be presented and the role of Jahn-Teller effect discussed.

Huo, Winifred M.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Sparing Healthy Tissue and Increasing Tumor Dose Using Bayesian Modeling of Geometric Uncertainties for Planning Target Volume Personalization

Objective: To develop a mathematical tool that can update a patient's planning target volume (PTV) partway through a course of radiation therapy to more precisely target the tumor for the remainder of treatment and reduce dose to surrounding healthy tissue. Methods and Materials: Daily on-board imaging was used to collect large datasets of displacements for patients undergoing external beam radiation therapy for solid tumors. Bayesian statistical modeling of these geometric uncertainties was used to optimally trade off between displacement data collected from previously treated patients and the progressively accumulating data from a patient currently partway through treatment, to optimally predict future displacements for that patient. These predictions were used to update the PTV position and margin width for the remainder of treatment, such that the clinical target volume (CTV) was more precisely targeted. Results: Software simulation of dose to CTV and normal tissue for 2 real prostate displacement datasets consisting of 146 and 290 patients treated with a minimum of 30 fractions each showed that re-evaluating the PTV position and margin width after 8 treatment fractions reduced healthy tissue dose by 19% and 17%, respectively, while maintaining CTV dose. Conclusion: Incorporating patient-specific displacement patterns from early in a course of treatment allows PTV adaptation for the remainder of treatment. This substantially reduces the dose to healthy tissues and thus can reduce radiation therapy–induced toxicities, improving patient outcomes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Validation of a Module Cell Cracking Model

The What's Cracking app can predict how changes in crystalline silicon photovoltaic (PV) module materials, design, and mounting affect its susceptibility for cell fracture under uniform loading. This work has experimentally validated the app. A set of commercial crystalline silicon PV modules was obtained for this study. The modules were uniformly loaded at three different mounting points, and their subsequent cell fractures were recorded. A large sample size allowed for the development of an experimental statistical model for cell fracture. Here, the comparison of the experiment to predictions from the app is in excellent agreement. Both experimental and modeling results also elucidate how moving the module mounting points toward the center of the module increases the probability of cell fracture.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2014

An evaluation of experimental decadal predictions using CCSM4

This study assesses retrospective decadal prediction skill of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in initialized climate prediction experiments with the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4). Ensemble forecasts initialized with two different historical ocean and sea-ice states are evaluated and compared to an ensemble of uninitialized coupled simulations. Both experiments are subject to identical twentieth century historical radiative forcings. Each forecast consists of a 10-member ensemble integrated over a 10-year period. One set of historical ocean and sea-ice conditions used for initialization comes from a forced ocean-ice simulation driven by the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments interannually varying atmospheric dataset. Following the Coordinated Model Intercomparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) protocol, these forecasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 1996, and every year from 2000 to 2006. A second set of initial conditions comes from historical ocean state estimates obtained through the assimilation of in-situ temperature and salinity data into the CCSM4 ocean model. These forecasts are only available over a limited subset of the CMIP5 recommended start dates. Both methods result in retrospective SST prediction skill over broad regions of the Indian Ocean, western Pacific Ocean and North Atlantic Ocean that are significantly better than reference skill levels from a spatio-temporal auto-regressive statistical model of SST. However the subpolar gyre region of the North Atlantic stands out as the only region where the CCSM4 initialized predictions outperform uninitialized simulations. Some features of the ocean state estimates used for initialization and their impact on the forecasts are discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting battery capacity from impedance at varying temperature and state of charge using machine learning

Prediction of battery health from electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) data can enable rapid measurement of battery state in real-world applications without using additional sensors or time-consuming performance measurements. However, deconvoluting the effect of capacity, state of charge, and temperature on EIS response is complicated analytically. Here, various machine-learning models, such as linear, Gaussian process, random forest, and artificial neural network regression, are utilized to predict capacity from EIS using hundreds of capacity, direct current (DC) resistance, and EIS measurements recorded under varying conditions of health, temperature, and state of charge (SOC). Several feature extraction and selection methods from traditional electrochemical analysis and statistical modeling are explored using machine-learning pipelines. EIS data from just two frequencies can accurately predict capacity, and interrogation shows that the optimal set of frequencies is not usually intuitive. Best results are achieved with an ensemble model, which predicts battery capacity with a mean absolute error of 1.9% on data from unobserved cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Characterizing Quantum Devices Using Model Selection

Quantum information processors are a new kind of computing device with the potential to solve certain problems very quickly. The quantum bits, or "ʺqubits,"ʺ that enable such processors are being developed at Sandia and around the world. In support of this effort, Sandia’s Center for Computing Research is designing methods and algorithms to characterize and debug the behavior of experimental qubits, such as trapped ions and electron spins in silicon. This is a challenge, because qubits are hard to characterize for exactly the same reason that they are powerful. Their behavior (and misbehavior) is far richer and more complicated than that of classical bits! The most reliable models of quantum errors have infinitely many parameters, and we never have enough data to fit all of them. Until now, researchers simply threw out most of these parameters resulting in a crude approximation that makes the problem tractable, but isn’t reliable or accurate enough for Sandia’s experimental work. Our new techniques use statistical model selection to identify “significant” error parameters on the fly, applying a data-‐‑driven information criterion to choose a Hilbert space that describes the data well without overfitting. To find a reliable criterion, we needed to evaluate many candidates on an enormous corpus of test cases–for which we relied on Red Sky’s ability to run parallel Monte Carlo simulations. Our computations demonstrate how classic model selection methods have to be modified for quantum devices. These results will enable new techniques that identify the effective dimension of as-‐‑built qubits on the fly, and then use this information to reliably pin down error behaviors and produce successively better and more useful qubits. This project highlights the close and productive relationship between Sandia and the University of New Mexico, where Travis Scholten is working towards a Ph.D. in physics. Both the intellectual environment of UNM and the high-‐‑powered supercomputing available at Sandia were critical ingredients in achieving our research goals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Second-order near-wall turbulence closures - A review

Advances in second-order near-wall turbulence closures are summarized. All closures under consideration are based on high-Reynolds-number models. Most near-wall closures proposed to date attempt to modify the high-Reynolds-number models for the dissipation function and the pressure redistribution term so that the resultant models are applicable all the way to the wall. The asymptotic behavior of the near-wall closures is examined and compared with the proper near-wall behavior of the exact Reynolds-stress equations. It is found that three second-order near-wall closures give the best correlations with simulated turbulence statistics. However, their predictions of near-wall Reynolds-stress budgets are considered to be incorrect. A proposed modification to the dissipitation-rate equation remedies part of those predictions. It is concluded that further improvements are required if a complete replication of all the turbulence properties and Reynolds-stress budgets by a statistical model of turbulence is desirable.

So, R. M. C.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improved Modeling in a Matlab-Based Navigation System

An innovative approach to autonomous navigation is available for low earth orbit satellites. The system is developed in Matlab and utilizes an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to estimate the attitude and trajectory based on spacecraft magnetometer and gyro data. Preliminary tests of the system with real spacecraft data from the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer Satellite (RXTE) indicate the existence of unmodeled errors in the magnetometer data. Incorporating into the EKF a statistical model that describes the colored component of the effective measurement of the magnetic field vector could improve the accuracy of the trajectory and attitude estimates and also improve the convergence time. This model is identified as a first order Markov process. With the addition of the model, the EKF attempts to identify the non-white components of the noise allowing for more accurate estimation of the original state vector, i.e. the orbital elements and the attitude. Working in Matlab allows for easy incorporation of new models into the EKF and the resulting navigation system is generic and can easily be applied to future missions resulting in an alternative in onboard or ground-based navigation.

Deutschmann, Julie↗

DOE OSTI2021

Considering uncertainties expands the lower tail of maize yield projections

Crop yields are sensitive to extreme weather events. Improving the understanding of the mechanisms and the drivers of the projection uncertainties can help to improve decisions. Previous studies have provided important insights, but often sample only a small subset of potentially important uncertainties. Here we expand on a previous statistical modeling approach by refining the analyses of two uncertainty sources. Specifically, we assess the effects of uncertainties surrounding crop-yield model parameters and climate forcings on projected crop yield. We focus on maize yield projections in the eastern U.S.in this century. We quantify how considering more uncertainties expands the lower tail of yield projections. We characterized the relative importance of each uncertainty source and show that the uncertainty surrounding yield model parameters is the main driver of yield projection uncertainty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lithium-Ion Batteries Being Evaluated for Low-Earth-Orbit Applications

The performance characteristics and long-term cycle life of aerospace lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries in low-Earth-orbit applications are being investigated. A statistically designed test using Li-ion cells from various manufacturers began in September 2004 to study the effects of temperature, end-of-charge voltage, and depth-of-discharge operating conditions on the cycle life and performance of these cells. Performance degradation with cycling is being evaluated, and performance characteristics and failure modes are being modeled statistically. As technology improvements are incorporated into aerospace Li-ion cells, these new designs can be added to the test to evaluate the effect of the design changes on performance and life. Cells from Lithion and Saft have achieved over 2000 cycles under 10 different test condition combinations and are being evaluated. Cells from Mine Safety Appliances (MSA) and modules made up of commercial-off-the-shelf 18650 Li-ion cells connected in series/parallel combinations are scheduled to be added in the summer of 2005. The test conditions include temperatures of 10, 20, and 30 C, end-of-charge voltages of 3.85, 3.95, and 4.05 V, and depth-of-discharges from 20 to 40 percent. The low-Earth-orbit regime consists of a 55 min charge, at a constant-current rate that is 110 percent of the current required to fully recharge the cells in 55 min until the charge voltage limit is reached, and then at a constant voltage for the remaining charge time. Cells are discharged for 35 min at the current required for their particular depth-of-discharge condition. Cells are being evaluated in four-cell series strings with charge voltage limits being applied to individual cells by the use of charge-control units designed and produced at the NASA Glenn Research Center. These charge-control units clamp the individual cell voltages as each cell reaches its end-of-charge voltage limit, and they bypass the excess current from that cell, while allowing the full current flow to the remaining cells in the pack. The goal of this evaluation is to identify conditions and cell designs for Li-ion technology that can achieve more than 30,000 low-Earth-orbit cycles. Testing is being performed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Crane Division, in Crane, Indiana.

McKissock, Barbara I.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Simultaneous detection and intensity estimation of an optical image

A statistical model for simultaneous detection and single parameter estimation of a stochastic signal against background noise is obtained. Two strategies, Bayes and maximum likelihood, are discussed. The detection of an optical point source imaged on a photosensitive surface and the estimation of its intensity based on such strategies are examined. An almost optimum estimate is also proposed and its statistical properties are studied.

Wang, L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

An Analytical Thermal Model for Autonomous Soaring Research

A viewgraph presentation describing an analytical thermal model used to enable research on autonomous soaring for a small UAV aircraft is given. The topics include: 1) Purpose; 2) Approach; 3) SURFRAD Data; 4) Convective Layer Thickness; 5) Surface Heat Budget; 6) Surface Virtual Potential Temperature Flux; 7) Convective Scaling Velocity; 8) Other Calculations; 9) Yearly trends; 10) Scale Factors; 11) Scale Factor Test Matrix; 12) Statistical Model; 13) Updraft Strength Calculation; 14) Updraft Diameter; 15) Updraft Shape; 16) Smoothed Updraft Shape; 17) Updraft Spacing; 18) Environment Sink; 19) Updraft Lifespan; 20) Autonomous Soaring Research; 21) Planned Flight Test; and 22) Mixing Ratio.

Allen, Michael↗

DOE OSTI2015

Atlantic hurricane surge response to geoengineering

Devastating Atlantic hurricanes are relatively rare events. However their intensity and frequency in a warming world may rapidly increase by a factor of 2-7 for each degree of increase in mean global temperature. Geoengineering by stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection cools the tropics relative to the polar regions, including the hurricane main development region in the Atlantic, suggesting that geoengineering may be an effective method of controlling hurricanes. We examine this hypothesis using 8 Earth System Model simulations of climate under the GeoMIP G3 and G4 schemes that use stratospheric aerosols to reduce the radiative forcing under the RCP4.5 scenario. Global mean temperature increases are greatly ameliorated by geoengineering, and tropical temperature increases are at most half of those in RCP4.5, but sulphate injection would have to double between 2020 and 2070 to balance RCP 4.5 to nearly 10 Tg SO2 yr-1, with consequent implications for damage to stratospheric ozone. We project changes in storm frequencies using a temperature-dependent Generalized Extreme Value statistical model calibrated by historical storm surges from 1923 and observed temperatures. The numbers of storm surge events as big as the one that caused the 2005 Katrina hurricane are reduced by about 50% compared with no geoengineering, but this is only marginally statistically significant. Furthermore, when sea level rise differences at 2070 between RCP4.5 and geoengineering are factored in to coastal flood risk, we find that expected flood levels are reduced by about 40 cm for 5 year events and perhaps halved for 50 year surges.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

An Evaluation of Size-Resolved Cloud Microphysics Scheme Numerics for Use with Radar Observations. Part I: Collision–Coalescence

This study evaluates some available schemes designed to solve the stochastic collection equation (SCE) for collision–coalescence of hydrometeors using a size-resolved (bin) microphysics approach and documents their numerical properties within the framework of a box model. Comparing three widely used SCE schemes, we find that all converge to almost identical solutions at sufficiently fine mass grids. However, one scheme converges far slower than the other two and shows pronounced numerical diffusion at the large-drop tail of the size distribution. One of the remaining two schemes is recommended on the basis that it is well converged on a relatively coarse mass grid, stable for large time steps, strictly mass conservative, and computationally efficient. To examine the effects of SCE scheme choice on simulating clouds and precipitation, two of the three schemes are compared in large-eddy simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field. A forward simulator that produces Doppler spectra from the large-eddy simulation results is used to compare the model output directly with radar observations. The scheme with pronounced numerical diffusion predicts excessively large mean Doppler velocities and overly broad and negatively skewed spectra compared with observations, consistent with numerical diffusion demonstrated in the box model. Statistics obtained using the recommended scheme are closer to observations, but notable differences remain, indicating that factors other than SCE scheme accuracy are limiting simulation fidelity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

New 26 P( p, γ ) 27 S Thermonuclear Reaction Rate and Its Astrophysical Implications in the rp -process

Accurate nuclear reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S are pivotal for a comprehensive understanding of the rp-process nucleosynthesis path in the region of proton-rich sulfur and phosphorus isotopes. However, large uncertainties still exist in the current rate of 26 P(p, γ) 27 S because of the lack of nuclear mass and energy level structure information for 27 S. We reevaluate this reaction rate using the experimentally constrained 27 S mass, together with the shell model predicted level structure. It is found that the 26 P(p, γ) 27 S reaction rate is dominated by a direct capture reaction mechanism despite the presence of three resonances at E = 1.104, 1.597, and 1.777 MeV above the proton threshold in 27 S. The new rate is overall smaller than the other previous rates from the Hauser–Feshbach statistical model by at least 1 order of magnitude in the temperature range of X-ray burst interest. In addition, we consistently update the photodisintegration rate using the new 27 S mass. The influence of new rates of forward and reverse reaction in the abundances of isotopes produced in the rp-process is explored by postprocessing nucleosynthesis calculations. The final abundance ratio of 27 S/ 26 P obtained using the new rates is only 10% of that from the old rate. The abundance flow calculations show that the reaction path 26 P(p, γ) 27 S(β + ,ν) 27 P is not as important as previously thought for producing 27 P. The adoption of the new reaction rates for 26 P(p, γ) 27 S only reduces the final production of aluminum by 7.1% and has no discernible impact on the yield of other elements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2000, now referred to as ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 micron through larger than 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through larger than 1 m in GEO are available. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours of data from existing sources and from new sources than past ORDEM versions. The object data range in size from 10 μm to larger than 1 m, and include in situ and remote measurements. The in situ data reveals material characteristics of small particles. Mass densities are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of 'high-density', represented by 7.9 g/cc, 'medium-density' represented by 2.8 g/cc and 'low-density' represented by 1.4 g/cc. Supporting models have also advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intact spacecraft and rocket bodies, mission related debris, and explosion and collision event fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific populations are added from sodium potassium droplet releases, recent major accidental and deliberate collisions, and known anomalous debris events. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions. Sample validation results with remote and in situ measurements are shown, and the consequences of including material density are discussed as it relates to heightened risks to crewed and robotic spacecraft

Krisko, P. H.↗