Results for “demand modelling” — Page 45

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies

To meet the nationally determined contributions proposed by the countries that signed the Paris Agreement, investments must be made in renewable generation technologies such as solar and wind. However, due to their high variability, these technologies pose challenges in terms of meeting demand or generating excess electricity. For this reason, energy system models are designed to capture this variability by considering flexibility technologies. Nevertheless, it is important to note that some energy system models lack integration with other sectors. Therefore, integrated assessment models have been employed to evaluate mitigation strategies, as they endogenously consider the linkages between energy and non-energy sectors. In addition, due to their complexity, these models do not account for the variability of renewable resources. Hence, this research aims to address this issue. Here, this work represents the first attempt to evaluate how the introduction of hourly resolution affects the outcomes of integrated assessment models, specifically focusing on the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We employ a soft-linking approach between the GCAM and the Highway to Renewable Energy Systems model (H2RES, an hourly level energy system model) to accomplish this. The proposed approach is tested using Chile’s Nationally Determined Contributions under different hydrological profiles in the power sector. The results show that it is possible to use the capacity obtained from the Global Change Analysis Model and implement it on an hourly scale. However, the feasibility of implementation depends on high levels of flexibility technologies, such as battery energy storage. When given the choice of investments in renewable sources and flexible technologies, the optimal dispatch of the H2RES model show small differences than those obtained by GCAM-Chile. H2RES differs from GCAM-Chile in approximately 5% for wind and 3% for solar electricity generation in the year 2050. However, feasible integration of significant renewable sources is obtained with relatively high Critical Excess Electricity Production levels, reaching 20% in 2050. This excess electricity is attributed to the necessity for flexible technologies to manage the intermittency of renewables sources when hourly profiles of such sources are considered.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Bridging semantics, control specifications and assessment: A library for scalable demand flexibility controls

There is growing recognition that Demand Flexibility (DF) can play a major role in enhancing grid reliability, with building control applications emerging as key enablers for DF. However, the traditional approach to deploying new control applications in buildings, including those for DF, remains largely manual and tailored to individual buildings, making it difficult to scale. While research efforts have explored semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and assessment approaches, these initiatives are fragmented and limited in scope. This paper proposes a novel methodology, grounded in design science research, to integrate these elements and create a comprehensive DF controls library for both industry and academia. This approach is applied to develop the Demand FLEXibility controls LIBrary using Semantics (DFLEXLIBS), an extensible open-source library that provides DF controls for HVAC systems in Python. DFLEXLIBS enables portable, easy-to-deploy controls that abstract building-specific data points, facilitating assessment across diverse buildings. DFLEXLIBS features nine different control applications, and it is successfully implemented and tested across four virtual and two real buildings, bridging the gap between semantics-driven portability, DF controls specification, and rigorous performance assessment. Its benefits are measured by a reusability ratio greater than 90% and a functional overlap ratio of around 70% for the most common functions used in the library, significantly reducing time for deploying new controls.

Controls library↗

DOE OSTI2023

Impact of different roofing mitigation strategies on near-surface temperature and energy consumption over the Chicago metropolitan area during a heatwave event

Not Available

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Upcycled high-strength aluminum alloys from scrap through solid-phase alloying

Although recycling secondary aluminum can lead to energy consumption reduction compared to primary aluminum manufacturing, products produced by traditional melt-based recycling processes are inherently limited in terms of alloy composition and microstructure, and thus final properties. To overcome the constraints associated with melting, we have developed a solid-phase recycling and simultaneous alloying method. This innovative process enables the alloying of 6063 aluminum scrap with copper, zinc, and magnesium to form a nanocluster-strengthened high-performance aluminum alloy with a composition and properties akin to 7075 aluminum alloy. The unique nanostructure with a high density of Guinier-Preston zones and uniformly precipitated nanoscale η‘/Mg(CuZn) 2 strengthening phases enhances both yield and ultimate tensile strength by >200%. By delivering high-performance products from scrap that are not just recycled but upcycled , this scalable manufacturing approach provides a model for metal reuse, with the option for on-demand upcycling of a variety of metallic materials from scrap sources.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Data-Driven Method for Estimating Behind-the-Meter Photovoltaic Generation in Hawaii

Due to the increasing penetration of distributed behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems and the installed utility revenue metering limited to monitoring only the net power import/export of the household, it is increasingly challenging for utilities to effectively plan and operate the grid. This paper proposes a methodology that estimates behind-the-meter PV generation using a selected subset of monitored PV systems. It is a data-driven approach, and the PV output is estimated utilizing a statistic regression model. A Minimum Redundancy Maximum Relevance (MRMR) algorithm is applied to preselect the optimal subset of the monitored PV systems. The performance of this approach is compared with a spatial interpolation method and a model-based approach. The proposed method is validated using high-resolution meter data recorded from 18 residential rooftop PV systems located on the island of Maui, Hawaii.

Data-driven modeling↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Utility-Privacy Trade-Off: Impacts of Semantic and Visit Types Ambiguities on Human Mobility Simulation

Humans are in perpetual movement, constantly traversing buildings, cities, waters, oceans, and countries. Mobility stands out as a major driving force shaping our modern societies. Capturing and explaining human behavior in a world of eight billion distinct mobility agendas is a complex challenge. With the rise of interconnected devices and platforms, such as smartphones, wearables, and point-of-interest data, largescale behavioral data has become more accessible, enabling rich insights into mobility patterns. However, the widespread availability of such data introduces significant ethical challenges. Detailed mobility data can inadvertently reveal sensitive personal information, including individuals' locations, habits, social interactions, and even political or religious affiliations. Beyond privacy breaches, the ethical implications of uncovering and potentially manipulating underlying behavioral patterns demand attention. Striking a balance between the utility of mobility models and the protection of individual privacy is therefore paramount. This paper explores the utility-privacy trade-offs in human mobility modeling, focusing on the impacts of introducing semantic and visit type ambiguities. By systematically examining how these ambiguities affect the fidelity of simulated trajectories and privacy risks, we provide a framework for evaluating ethical and privacy-conscious modeling practices. Our findings emphasize the need for methods that safeguard privacy without undermining the usefulness of mobility models, contributing to the responsible advancement of mobility science in alignment with ethical standards and societal expectations.

Amichi, Licia [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000177631394)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agent-Based Simulation Model for Analyzing Multimodal Transportation of CO2 for CCUS

The overarching goal of this work is to determine how the United States can avoid being constrained by transportation limitations as the CCUS process evolves to a full gigaton-level system. The model is data-driven, open to CO2 supply and demand points defined as input data, and designed to allow for transportation on waterways, rail, or pipeline.

Clark, RobinJ↗

DOE OSTI2024

Wholesale Electricity Markets and Resource Adequacy with High Clean Energy Generation Targets

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗

DOE OSTI2023

Faster-than-real-time Simulation with Demonstration for Resilient DER Integration

The US electric grid is facing operational, stability, and security challenges. Transmission system operators need some measure of visibility into distribution system renewable generation. Distribution system generation needs to support transmission system voltage. The grid is experiencing an expansion in measurement systems. How to take full advantage of this expansion and defend against attacks, both cyber and physical, poses additional challenges. The Faster-than-real-time Simulation with demonstration for Resilient DER Integration project set out to do the following: a. Flatten the voltage profile through the feeders and system for cost saving and voltage stabilization needs. b. Increase the amount of intermittent distributed energy resources (IDERs) that could be deployed on a utility feeder and provide 100% or more energy needed for the demands on that feeder, and c. based on an accurate model (Digital Twin) of the utilities system, be able to detect any abnormalities on the utilities distribution system. To manage the voltage and increase IDER penetration (a,b), Graph Trace Analysis is employed in a time-series, optimal power flow to coordinate the time-varying feedback control setpoints of a distribution feeder’s utility control devices. Under the coordinated control are a Load Tap Changing Transformer, a voltage regulator, and five switched capacitor banks. The feeder serves over 2000 customers, the feeder secondaries are modeled, and the feeder has 2.3 MW of PV generation, corresponding to a 17.4% penetration of PV generation. The feeder model has over 12,000 components, where every customer load bus and PV generator are modeled. The accuracy of the power flow solution is compared against historical meter voltage measurements, the improvement in conservation voltage reduction energy savings as a function of the coordinated control desired voltage profile is investigated, and the increase in PV penetration of the coordinated control over the existing control is presented. To achieve improved control performance while observing system operation constraints, bellwether Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) voltage measurements are used to adjust the desired voltage profile used by the optimal power flow analysis. To detect and alleviate or negate attacks or failures on the distribution and transmission utility grids (c) the grid needs to be resilient and self-healing. In this project software was designed to do just that. At the center of the software is an Integrated System Model (ISM) that spans from transmission to secondary distribution. The ISM is employed in real-time abnormality detection, voltage stability forecasting, and multi-mode control. Testing results are presented for: 1—attacks on utility infrastructure; 2—energy savings from optimal control; 3—distribution system control response during a low voltage transmission system event; 4—cyber-attacks on PV inverters, where physical inverters are used in hard-ware-in-the-simulation-loop studies. Contributions of this work include real-time analysis that spans from three-phase transmission through secondary distribution; an approach for detecting abnormalities that employs measurements from three independent measurement systems; and a multi-mode distribution system control that responds to cyber-attacks, physical attacks, equipment failures, and transmission system needs.

Integrated System Model, Graph Trace Analysis, Adv↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hourly Load Profile Dataset for Electric Transit Bus Depots in the United States

Transit buses operate primarily in dense urban areas, where nearby populations face increased exposure to fine particulates, nitrogen oxides, and other harmful pollutants. Electrifying transit buses presents a clear opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve urban air quality. However, widespread adoption may pose significant energy and infrastructure challenges, which can be mitigated through proactive planning and investment. This report presents a robust modeling framework and an initial estimation of the hourly electricity demand at transit bus depots across the United States. The resulting depot-level dataset, available at data.nrel.gov/submissions/282, provides valuable insights for infrastructure planning and electricity demand forecasting, supporting the scalable electrification of transit bus fleets nationwide.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2026

PopGNN: Graph Neural Network-Based Flexible Future Population Forecasting Model

Accurate population forecasts is important to plan critical infrastructure and services, from housing and education to healthcare and transport. However, traditional population prediction studies have only employed traditional machine learning models limited to capture complex spatial interdependencies and patterns. Althogh recently computer vision-based framework was introduced with with promising accuracy, it has critical limitations for real-world planning applications: it function only at fixed spatial resolutions, restricting their use in diverse boundaries such as census tracts, neighborhoods, or administrative zones. Therefore, this study suggests a Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based population prediction framework, called PopGNN. This model recorded remarkable performance compared with state-of-the-art models and traditional baseline models in the grid and administrative boundaries. Furthermore, our framework achieved comparable predictive accuracy to a computer vision-based model in both the South Korea and Tennessee case studies. Consequently, this study is valuable in that a single model can provide accurate population forecasts that address diverse planning demands, ranging from granular grid-level estimates for precise service allocation and facility location planning to aggregate administrative-level forecasts for macro-scale regional policy and resource distribution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Large Load Impacts to Distribution System Hosting Capacity

This work examined the impact of large loads on utility distribution system models using the Sandia-developed open-source software DREAMS. It was shown that hosting capacity varies with location and changes after any asset is added to, or removed from, a system. Despite the tested models having similar rated voltages and other characteristics, their thermal and voltage constrained hosting capacity varied over 2 MW. The addition of a 3-phase balanced constant power large load with power factor of 1.0 exhibited non-linear reductions to all voltage constrained hosting capacities. The reductions to thermal constrained hosting capacity from a load with similar characteristics was more linear, related to the size of the added load, and did not impact all model buses. Co-located capacitors were shown to accommodate demand that was beyond the baseline voltage constrained hosting capacity limits, however, the costs and benefits from this approach were found to not be 1:1 and required additional available thermal capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying the Sensitive Parameters of the New Energy Vehicles in China

To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the Chinese government has put effort into decarbonizing the transportation sector. Consequently, China elaborated a new energy vehicle strategy promoting the production of electric vehicles and expanding into hydrogen (H2) vehicle technologies including fuel cell electric vehicles and H2 internal combustion engine vehicles. The Transportation Energy Analysis Model (TEAM) projects the market penetration as well as energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions in China up to 2050. By integrating the Monte Carlo simulation, this study tests the robustness of TEAM and investigates the key parameters that will shape passenger vehicle sales and emissions in the future. The results show that fuel cell cost, H2 price, and battery cost are the most sensitive parameters for H2 vehicle technologies.

Saafi, Mohamed Ali↗

DOE OSTI2020

CSB-RNN: A Faster-Than-Realtime RNN Acceleration Framework with Compressed Structured Blocks

Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) is widely applied to temporal sequence analysis, where real-time performance is usually in demand. However, RNN suffers a heavy computational workload as the model comes with a large weight matrix. To alleviate the pain, model compression (pruning) schemes have been proposed for RNN that pruning the redundant (near-zero) weight-values. On the one hand, the non-structured pruning methods achieve a considerable pruning rate while bringing the computational irregularity, which is un-friendly to parallel-hardware. On the other hand, the existing structured pruning methods consider the hardware parallelism; However, they suffer a poor pruning rate due to the restrict constraints on pruning structure. This paper presents CSB-RNN, an optimized full-stack RNN framework with the novel compressed structured block (CSB) technique. The CSB-pruned RNN model comes with both fine-granularity that benefits the pruning rate and regular structure that facilitates the hardware-parallelism. Further, we propose a novel hardware architecture for inferencing the CSB-pruned model. Different from conventional parallel hardware, this architecture solves the block-workload imbalance issue and achieves an over 95% hardware utilization. With the experiments on 10 RNN models in 5 application domains, the CSB-RNN realizes 7×-20× lossless compression and up to 50× acceptable lossy-compression, which is 2×-7× to the prior art. With the addition of the novel hardware, the compressed-RNN inference reaches a super real-time latency of 10-400µs with FPGA implementation.

Shi, Runbin↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Circularity Assessment for Silicon Solar Panels Based on Dynamic Material Flow Analysis: Preprint

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are the fastest growing renewable energy technology for clean, inexpensive, and sustainable electricity generation. Along with numerous technical roadmaps to improve system cost, performance and reliability, the PV industry should also plan to handle large volumes of silicon panel waste, which is initially estimated to be ~13 million metric tons (MT) by 2050 in the U.S. alone. Understanding the magnitude of material needs and how material flows throughout the PV panel life cycle could respond to design, operational and different end-of-life (EOL) circular pathways will help transition into a circular, resource-conserving economy. Herein, we introduce a dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) framework based on electricity generation to quantify time-series stocks and flows of bulk PV materials (e.g., solar glass and aluminum frames) throughout the life cycles of utility-scale silicon PV systems in the U.S. in the period 2000-2100. We apply the model to a range of scenarios to understand how material demands depend on selected PV-related parameters, different material circularity strategies, and recent module design trends (e.g., bifacial, frameless). We found that float glass and aluminum in PV installations would likely reach 100 million MT and 12 million MT by 2100, respectively, in the baseline scenario. The most influential parameters for PV installation and subsequent waste reduction are found to be module lifetime, module efficiency, annual degradation, and material reduction. Module recycling and component remanufacturing were found to be the most effective material circularity strategies for waste minimization. Panel reuse has negligible savings on waste under current module efficiencies compared to replacements with newer generations with higher efficiency. Ongoing trends to produce larger power frameless modules could save 10 million MT of glass and ~9 million MT of aluminum. Our results enable advanced planning for future materials needs and provide insight into potential opportunities to minimize waste.

circular economy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 1. Principes de base de l'electricite, de l'acces a l'energie et de l'energie solaire hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89244 for the English translation of this document.

electricity↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 2. Produits cles et assurance qualite pour le solaire hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89245 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗